UPDATES WE HAVE UPDATES:8 updates to this story have been posted – see below the “read the rest of this entry” line. It appears most if not all of the technology in the expedition has failed early on and the Catlin website never made any mention of this fact until a BBC article appeared today. They have disclaimers up now on the Catlin website, and the flat XML data file used to feed the biometrics page has been removed from the web page developers website.
It appears that they are presenting recycled data from the biotelemetry sensors on the team. The “live from the ice” biotelemetry data for each team member is presented here:
Here is a screencap of what the biotelemetry section of that webpage looks like:
click for full sized image
A WUWT commenter posted this:
karl heuer (07:40:46) :
The “Live from the Ice” biotelemetry is definitely not live:
When the data loads,
Pen Hadow core temp starts at 33.25 C every time the page loads, then increments up to 33.57, 33.64, 33.7, 33.75
every time, I have refreshed, cleared temp files and rebooted — still the same
WUWT commenter “hotrod” did his own check:
I just tried it looking at Pen Haddow’s pulse rate — Hmmm what are the odds that 32 consecutive pulse rate measurements would be identical?
Yes looks like the bio metric data is just white was to make their site look nifty, and has absolutely no value at all — perhaps they already have all their ice measurements in the can too?
91
91.3
93.9
95.1
93.5
88.5
85
87.6
91.2
94.5
101.3
106.6
105.9
102
96.6
92.9
87.2
85.1
79.9
80.7
80.2
85.9
89.9
96.2
105.9
116.7
113.9
103.4
90.8
83.4
82.1
82.4
===========
91
91.3
93.9
95.1
93.5
88.5
85
87.6
91.2
94.5
101.3
106.6
105.9
102
96.6
92.9
87.2
85.1
79.9
80.7
80.2
85.9
89.9
96.2
105.9
116.7
113.9
103.4
90.8
83.4
82.1
82.4
==================
Larry
And I also double checked that with my own observations, writing down each datapoint from a “clean refresh” of the web page as shown below:
Ann Daniels Heartbeat
89.7
89.6
87.4
95.6
104.4
94.5
85.5
98.1
123.1
122.9
109.8
106.6
108.7
113.9
102.1
105.1
104.7
96.3
109.6
109
115
117.8
109.6
105.9
110.8
111.1
101.5
104.7
121.6
137.3
142.5
130
132.4
149.6
142.4
122.4
129.5
116.3
107.5
113.3
102.3
100.7
110.3
124.9
130.1
143.1
163.7
164.7
142.8
118
108.8
102.7
96.3
94.7
101.7
117.4
119
98.8
Martin Hartley Heartbeat
113
114.3
113.3
109.5
109.4
108.5
105.8
107.8
106.6
104.1
106.6
108.9
109.1
110.1
110.6
108.2
102.2
97.2
96.4
98.2
99.9
102
99.1
100.7
106.8
107.3
108.6
107.2
100.9
103.8
107.4
105.1
105.9
Ann Core temp
37.32
37.26
37.22
37.2
37.18
37.17
37.15
37.16
37.17
37.19
37.2
37.21
37.22
37.23
37.26
37.27
37.29
37.3
Martin Core Temp
37.29
37.25
37.24
37.25
37.23
37.21
37.2
37.21
37.22
37.2
37.21
37.2
37.19
37.2
37.21
37.2
37.19
37.2
37.19
37.18
37.19
I didn’t bother to check any more.
Indeed, you can watch these exact same sequences of numbers on all the sensors listed above repeat exactly in the sequence of numbers shown above immediately after a web page refresh.
And this is “live from the ice”?
So I thought to myself “maybe they only download telemetry data every couple of hours”? So maybe it was “near-live”.
That would explain the page refresh behavior. Fortunately, there was a way on the Catlin website to check the past data using the data selector on the biotelemetry page as shown below:
click for a full sized image
To my surprise, it made no difference. Any day I selected showed the exact same telemetry data!
There’s no mention of this on their website that I can find.
Something else bothers me: trailing zero deletion.
Notice this data sequence:
Martin Core Temp
37.29
37.25
37.24
37.25
37.23
37.21
37.2
37.21
37.22
37.2
37.21
37.2
37.19
37.2
37.21
37.2
37.19
37.2
37.19
37.18
37.19
Notice how the zero is dropped from 37.2? Most data loggers don’t behave that way when logging data, but anyone familiar with a Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet knows of this behavior.
I welcome all readers to repeat the exercise I just did with the data, and I welcome any plausible explanations for what I have observed that would explain this repeating data pattern.
The Catlin web page itself says this about the biotelemetry:
And the caveat posted at the bottom of the “live from the ice” web page says this:
The data produced by the Equivital System is provided for general information only and is not intended for medical analysis within the scope of the Catlin Arctic Survey. As such, it will be analysed for general research purposes only and will not be viewed or utilised as a tool for the diagnosis or identification of the medical condition of the expedition team. This has been agreed by all members of the expedition team.
Nothing about it being “not live” or broken is stated, only that we shouldn’t use it for medical analysis.
So we have:
repeating data on all heatbeats
repeating data on all core temperatures
repeating data on the three dates I checked available from the archive data selector
no notice of the telemetry being down
no notice of it not being “live”
status: “operational” for all three team members
UPDATE: I also checked from another computer in my office that had never visited the website to eliminate the possibility of some web browser cache problem – same results
What could one conclude from that? Maybe this is just an elaborate demo page? But why then the “live from the ice” as the name of the page in the URL?
If my observations are correct, the question then is : if they are this sloppy about what data they present to the world on their “live” web page, what does that say about integrity of any other data they may gather? Surely they know the whole world is watching the condition of the three intrepid ice explorers with great concern?
Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt, it could be a technical glitch of some sorts, but I’ll be interested to see what the explanation for this is.
UPDATE: WUWT commenter “sandy” offer this bit of flash debugging which sheds some light on the issue.
Those numbers are built into the flash swf. There is no attempt to contact the server to update the .swf.
For the technical: A swf that was updating real time would have to contact the server for the latest data. It would do this using a XMLHTTPRequest object which is the wizardry behind AJAX, or it would attempt to open a direct socket which generally gets the browser squawking.
My firefox firebug developer add-on can detect no attempt to contact the server.
This swf was never designed to be able to get live data.
(and it is a bugger to get right)
If, on seeing the .fla, this swf came from, I am wrong, I’ll be happy to retract.
But until then my accusation of deliberate deception stands.
Anybody care to verify this?
UPDATE2: It gets even stranger. Why would anyone strap a “hand warmer” to a device designed to measure temperature? (h/t to Edward Mitchell)
Well, I hope my comment is useful but in my analysis of the biofeedback html I am finding that the swf (the flash component of the page) is not the requester of the data but rather consumes ajax information via javascript. Therefore, it could be possible that the page is requesting live data from another site and feeding it to the swf via javascript (although I have already checked that possibility and the data is coming from off site, but it appears to be “canned” data).
I believe I have verified that the following are the calls being made from the page per “explorer”:
I have saved a copy of this xml and will check to see if it changes.
I appreciate the good people here who drive out the corruption to truth and science. This site is preserving my sanity!
REPLY: Thank you Shawn, this appears to be the root data. I’ve loaded the http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php file and it appears to indeed be hard coded. For those just joining this discussion, the Catlin website has a footer at the bottom of each page that identifies the website developer:
And that is where the XML data file requested by the flash used to drive the “biometrics” page comes from. I suppose it is possible that this data file would be regularly updated, but the fact that they have a date selector on the biometrics web page that does nothing, and calls this same file again and again points to a hard wiring of this data.
WUWT readers, especially those with flash and XML experience, please weigh in and point out anything you see that either supports or refutes this conjecture. – Anthony
UPDATE4:WUWT reader Pkatt points out that the leader of the survey required an Arctic extraction in 2003 that in the words of one rescuer “put lives at risk” and was “a bit stupid”
UPDATE 5: The Catlin live biometrics web page went blank for awhile, and this note appeared:
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
UPDATE6:The disclaimer message onCatlin live biometrics web page now says:
Please note the above data was collected over a 12 hour period on March 8th. This gives us a fair representation of how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
Yes, it does.
UPDATE7: The XML source data file used to originally feed the biotelemetry web page flash display has been removed and replaced with a generic logo of the developer/ website company for the Catlin Expedition:
A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.
Perhaps the entire exercise is a sham? Like the moon walks according to the conspiracy theorists?
If so, we can have the complete results of their “measurements” now, can’t we?
George Bruce
April 8, 2009 2:47 pm
I hope they are alright. We can laugh at the scientific absurdity of their publicity stunt expedition, but their lives are not a laughing matter.
Steven Goddard
April 8, 2009 2:50 pm
I think they loop a time slice on the web site, and then capture new measurements every few hours or so. REPLY: then why not say so?
Katlab
April 8, 2009 2:54 pm
This is bothersome on many levels, but let’s pick the most humane. Is there anyway of tracking whether they are actually okay, healthwise?
kurt
April 8, 2009 2:56 pm
Yes, I just confirmed your observations. One plausible explanation I can think of is that they are no longer receiving the biometric data from one or more of the members of the expedition, but don’t want to advertise the fact, so they created a loop.
AKD
April 8, 2009 3:01 pm
I think they pooped their sensors and are embarassed to tell. REPLY: that would still leave other sensors like heartbeat intact. – Anthony
Jeff B.
April 8, 2009 3:05 pm
Tough questions, but I have to ask. Is it possible that these folks are martyring themselves on this expedition, for the cause of AGW? Or worse, that their handlers are allowing them to continue their foolish quest, even at great risk to their lives?
Cold remains a very dangerous threat to humans. And yet all we hear about is AGW, even when there is such an obvious and persistent decline in global temps.
kurt
April 8, 2009 3:07 pm
“Steven Goddard (14:50:12) :
I think they loop a time slice on the web site, and then capture new measurements every few hours or so.”
If this were the case, shouldn’t the pattern change when you load a previous-day’s data? What would be the point of letting you load data for the previous day if the display was simply fed the same time-interval loop regardless of the day selected?
Aron
April 8, 2009 3:08 pm
Confirmed. It’s possible to set up a Flash .swf file that starts off with the same numbers each time and then uses a auto-refreshing random number generator within a tight margin after that.
Robert Wood
April 8, 2009 3:10 pm
Hey, we are all worried that they are OK.
Who says they are any further North than Scunthorpe??
kurt
April 8, 2009 3:12 pm
“Katlab (14:54:08) :
This is bothersome on many levels, but let’s pick the most humane. Is there anyway of tracking whether they are actually okay, healthwise?”
This may sound awfully jaded, but is there any way of confirming whether they are actually there at all?
INGSOC
April 8, 2009 3:15 pm
Capricorn 1?
Terry
April 8, 2009 3:21 pm
They don’t have them sync’d either – it just starts at the first number in the series when the client loads, and then loops through the static dataset. Open a browser to the bio page, and after a few of the numbers have cycled, open another – the two are never in sync, they each just cycle 1 to n and start over again. They could at least have gone to the effort of blasting the same fake number(s) to open clients at the same time. Tsk tsk, sloppy sloppy.
MikeE
April 8, 2009 3:29 pm
Well when that data was correct, poor ole pen was teetering on stage three hypothermia… Not a good thing if yer core temp goes down too 32, yah get the warm fuzzies and all you want to do is curl up in a ball and go too sleep.
But as the data is obviously has nothing to do with their physical condition, who knows
I think they are healthy, and you make too much out of this. Of course this is for the public, not scientific. Like the adoption of polar bears where no polar bear is adopted but the money collecting and politically very influential non-governmental organization WWF does well. The other day the Catlin team is plastic toys in our Corn Flakes… Like milk in the bottom of our plates of milk.
So lets not be mean but hoping they are well and healthy …when the polar bears shows up!
–
If it’s okay, although it’s offtopic, an interesting political article about UN:s sacral commandments for Copenhagen and a carbon free world [snip] order: http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=323046044706313
MikeW
April 8, 2009 3:38 pm
Only slightly OT: Back on the 17th of March, a WUWT post entitled “Another shocked polar explorer” included a tracking map for the first dozen days. It show the backwards drift from day 6 to day 12. Is there a newer version of this map? http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/np-icequest-map.png
I could not find any ‘live’ map on the Catlin site. How is the ice drift affecting them currently? I’ve seen some notes here that it may be adding to their progress which I would find surprising unless they’ve been crossing an area that has been stretching out. Is it? Regardless of how far they’ve trekked or drifted, what is their current position along the entire distance they’re trying to cover?
Thanks Anthony, for all your work here, and thanks to the many other contributors as well.
Mike Bryant
April 8, 2009 3:42 pm
If there was a simple straightforward explanation, why not just give the explanation up front? In my estimation this expedition, which includes all the sponsors and the prince, has lost what little credibility it had.
Ray Reynolds
April 8, 2009 3:55 pm
Classic rut, hiking across a barren expance of ice for months on end will do that to a person…same old same old same old day.
Robert Wood
April 8, 2009 4:06 pm
My email to info@catlinarcticsurvey.com Sir/Madam,
I notice that whenever I log into the real time biometrics page http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx the same sequence of, for example, Pen Hadow’s core temperatures, always occours. I find it hard to believe that every time I visit the page, the team members are all undergoing the exact same physiological experiences as during the previous visit.
Or is this all a fraud, a hoax. What proof do you have that there is actually anyone in the Arctic at all?
layne
April 8, 2009 4:08 pm
One report I read (perhaps here or a link from here) noted they were exibiting signs of chronic hypothermia. Not something to play with. Assuming they are really where they say they are, I hope they’re ok.
Leon Brozyna
April 8, 2009 4:09 pm
Can anyone say, ‘cooking the books?’
Who needs real data when fictional data works so well supporting The Cause?
Hasse@Norway
April 8, 2009 4:19 pm
I’m sure these temperature readings are quite “robust” and verified by other studies…. which are also….. robust….
Antonio San
April 8, 2009 4:28 pm
May I suggest reading Viktor Pelevin’s: Omon Ra? It is a short book but could offer a nice counterpoint to the Catlin mission…
This will be very *inconvenient* when they come out with their book. Kudos on a perfect discovery for a skeptics’ site.
AKD
April 8, 2009 5:08 pm
AKD (15:01:37) :
I think they pooped their sensors and are embarassed to tell.
REPLY: that would still leave other sensors like heartbeat intact. – Anthony
Polar bears ate those and pooped them, too. Also very embarrassing. One way or the other, this all comes back to poop.
Poop in, poop out.
pby
April 8, 2009 5:17 pm
Nathan Hale said before he was hung by the British that he regrets that he had only one life to give for his country. These people can say they gave their life if they lose it for the purpose of enslaving the masses by the few elites. The control of the many by the false science of agw. This has never been about science but about money and control of every facet of human life. Where one person gave his life for freedom they are risking their life foe state domination. How pathetic.
Gary P
April 8, 2009 5:19 pm
Perhaps when the data stream goes out of range of acceptable variation, the software begins to loop old data. I hope the real data isn’t pulse 0, respiration 0, core temperature -30 C.
Graeme Rodaughan
April 8, 2009 5:22 pm
Perhaps we could mount a 2 week Sceptics expedition to Bali to check if Global warming was having an impact on the serving temperature of Beer?
It would be as useful.
Graeme Rodaughan
April 8, 2009 5:22 pm
We could call it “Not the Catlin Expedition”.
J.Hansford
April 8, 2009 5:25 pm
Hmm….. They are actually out on the ice are they?…… and not tucked away in a warm base camp in Canada pretending to be intrepid arctic explorers?
Don’t want to sound too cynical. But I have little trust in people who have been found to have made things up….. You start wondering what else they made up as well.
….. Then of course there is their ice data….. I wonder how good that is now?
Bill Illis
April 8, 2009 5:28 pm
I noticed this a week ago and the numbers haven’t changed since.
I imagine it is not really possible to transmit the biotelemetry data on a continous basis from the Arctic. I also imagine the Team does not want to be wearing the sensors all the time (and having to semi-strip-down each day at -40C to put them on).
I imagine they did record the data at some point and sent the data along with the plane after the first re-supply mission. It is clear that most of the pictures from the ice pack were also sent aboard the plane after the first re-supply rather than transmitted.
This isn’t the Apollo mission after all. It does, however, raise the question of what is publicity versus what is real.
The site no longer shows their progress. I suppose this data did not show what they wanted so they just eliminated it.
This expedition will most likely come to an end very soon. Maybe they will say something like this “The ice is so thin with one year old ice the expedition was forced to end thei journey”. or something like that,
Jeremy
April 8, 2009 5:43 pm
I find this entire discussion distasteful. If these people are really where they say they are then they are obviously in danger. The arctic is no place for making a publicity stunt. Even people who do foolish things do not deserve to die. I sincerely hope that somebody sane is monitoring these foolish people. It reminds of the book “Into thin Air” and the idiotic things people do when they are half frozen and brains numb with cold. On Everest people have just sat down, given up and a few hours later they are, of course, dead. I recall one poor foolish chap, radioed his wife (with child) while he sat down and died.
Jim Arndt
April 8, 2009 5:45 pm
Hey Anthony,
People can correct me but even in perfect conditions I believe your body temp changes more than that. Hence we sweat or shiver. Didn’t you post that they are slurring their speech, that means core temp should have dropped quite a bit. Just doesn’t seem right.
swampie
April 8, 2009 5:49 pm
Ooooh, I’ll volunteer for the “Not the Catlin Expedition”. FINALLY! Some science that we can use.
Possible candidates for the Darwin Awards I’d say. That’s if they are really anywhere they say they are. Sounds like the whole thing could be faked. Complete bs anyway.
So where are the bears?
Edward Mitchell
April 8, 2009 6:08 pm
I was just looking through the sponsors for the Catlin mission, and here is what I found:
23 Sponsors
5 Financial and insurance 4 Carbon trading and environmental groups (the big oil of the green movement???) The Prince’s May Day Network
The Prince’s May Day Network is the UK’s largest group of businesses of all sizes and from all sectors who have pledged to take action to reduce their carbon emissions. Founded by HRH the Prince of Wales, the Network empowers these businesses to share the experiences, challenges and business benefits of carbon reduction. The Catlin Arctic Survey team will broadcast from the ice to the third Prince’s May Day Summit on climate change, on 1st May 2009 Climate Friendly
‘Independently ranked number one by the Carbon Offset Watch survey, Climate Friendly is committed to achieving real emissions reductions and supporting renewable energy by investing in only the highest quality, Gold Standard and Voluntary Carbon Standard projects.’ Green Guardian
The largest environmental awareness campaign in South London, the Green Guardian initiative is a unique partnership between Newsquest South London, the leading media company in the area, south London borough councils and commercial businesses and organisations.
Launched in 2006, the aim of the initiative is to provide environmental news and information through Newsquest South London’s paper titles and websites. The Green Guardian awards give public recognition and thanks to all those across South London that are taking steps to reduce their environmental footprint. ECX
ECX is the premier marketplace for trading carbon emissions, providing the focal point for the majority of trading in the recently developed emissions or carbon markets.
The rest are the usual assortment of sponsors, their law firms, equipment and clothing suppliers, transportation etc.
Could this mission be biased from the start? It seems at least 4 of these 23 sponsors will benefit in some way if the data collected supports AGW!
I have not seen anybody mention this. When they first gave “Live from the ice”, there was apparent telemetry for ice thickness. This has never been transmitted. Now we are supposedly getting the medical data, but the ice thickness data has completely disappeared; it actually never appeared at all. Am I being cynical when I speculate that the Catlin expedition dont want anyone to see the raw data on ice thickness? That they wish to “process” it before making the results known? Just a thought.
JohnD
April 8, 2009 6:18 pm
re: a few comments, I don’t get how freezing to death makes one an AWG martyr (no way to spin THAT).
They may die for not being plucked out of there in time by the team’s operational command, say, for the hope that the weather turns, and puts The Artic Sea Ice Meltdown Tragedy Tour back on script, but that would be murder, not martyr.
Katlab
April 8, 2009 6:20 pm
kurt,
I thought about them not being there, but if they weren’t there. The blogs wouldn’t be about how cold it is. It would be more global warming stuff, but you’ve got to wonder. Throw doubt on one thing, everything becomes subject to question.
MikeW
April 8, 2009 6:20 pm
Edward Mitchell (18:08:01) : “The Catlin Arctic Survey team will broadcast from the ice to the third Prince’s May Day Summit on climate change, on 1st May 2009.”
And the broadcast will be: “Mayday! Mayday! Get us the hell out of here!”
AnonyMoose
April 8, 2009 6:23 pm
Can we start a donation button to fund a Caitlin Survey Project? Land helicopters a mile or two ahead of them, wave at them (in shirtsleeves) as they go past, record time and location, note any barbeques or proximity to buildings, then move ahead again. And, yes, I do know we’d need a town-sized base to keep helicopters moving in the Arctic. But we’re monitoring Science!
William
April 8, 2009 6:30 pm
I’d bet the batteries died. They tried to over tech the mission. Or a more plausible explanation from Star Trek (pick any series, they all did it) they are stuck in a time warp. Like the movie ‘Groundhog Day’, each time they drift back, the data starts over.
Glenn
April 8, 2009 6:38 pm
Jim Cripwell (18:10:13) :
“I have not seen anybody mention this. When they first gave “Live from the ice”, there was apparent telemetry for ice thickness. This has never been transmitted. Now we are supposedly getting the medical data, but the ice thickness data has completely disappeared; it actually never appeared at all. Am I being cynical when I speculate that the Catlin expedition dont want anyone to see the raw data on ice thickness? That they wish to “process” it before making the results known? Just a thought.”
This is more curious IMO than the biometric prop stunt. Why did they set up the website to show realtime ice thickness data in the first place, if they knew the data would be sent in another direction and not available till after the melt season ended? http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hnm6QA1av0WvxKQFkkoNH4kZTEqQ
“Hadow and his team, who are due to set off on or around February 24, will be dragging with them SPRITE, a radar which measures the thickness of ice every 10 centimetres throughout the trip.
The radar readings will then be fed back to Professor Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, who is leading the analysis effort.
Hadow and his team will be able to offer a provisional snapshot of how long the polar ice cap will last when they reach the North Pole at the end of May but Maslowski’s authoritative findings will not be available until September.”
This basically means that not one iota of information that comes from this “expedition” or its support team can be trusted. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Zilch.
If part is faked for show, then all parts are suspect.
Great catch everyone.
This needs to get to a mainstream reporter ASAP.
Mike Bryant
April 8, 2009 6:49 pm
“Hadow and his team will be able to offer a provisional snapshot of how long the polar ice cap will last when they reach the North Pole at the end of May but Maslowski’s authoritative findings will not be available until September.”
Of course, by then it will be obvious to everyone how the melt season progressed. How will they spin the anecdata if the melt is the about the same or less than 2008? How will they spin a reversal of the trend?
L Ross
April 8, 2009 7:00 pm
Whether the data is looped and then new data is downloaded or any other possible explanation to try and account for a set of repeating numbers which do not coincide from one computer to another, yet start at a fixed point and then run through the sequence points to artifical data.
One important point then is that whether this data is artificial or not (providing there is some sort of explanation for the repetition aside from fake data) the data appears to be artificial and there should be an explanation forthcoming. In the meantime, those responsible for monitoring the data, updating the website, collecting and cashing the checks which must be forthcoming should post a note retracting the data and remove it from the website until all is working as it should.
It looks as if most people, even when confronted with obvious false data, really want to believe that this is at heart a noble project. That sentiment should be taken advantage of while it lasts.
Given the good nature of most of the folks observing this it seems sort of sad to think that the most likely explanation for all of those little mysteries is that this is simply a drama to draw attention to conclusions aready drawn. On the other hand, this seems to point up the current degree of “science” used in the climate change debate.
Christian Bultmann
April 8, 2009 7:01 pm
Perhaps the biotelemetry data after receiving it is modelled and corrected by the same computer model that predicted that the arctic will be ice free this year.
Kind off like the ocean temperatures if you can’t find warming model yourself some.
Pen Hadow models his Cranial-Rectal Inversion Attitude Adjuster for the public: click jeez (18:44:57) is right on. When someone is caught lying, it means one thing for sure: he is a liar. At this point we can’t trust anything they say.
Mike Bryant
April 8, 2009 7:16 pm
Since we’re all laughing at England’s Prince Charles, perhaps an English newspaper might fancy a write-up of this rather sad affair. Surely the good Prince will pull the plug on these hooligans and their shenanigans. Do the right thing England.
Hail Britania!
Mike Bryant
MikeW (15:38:20) :
How is the ice drift affecting them currently? I’ve seen some notes here that it may be adding to their progress which I would find surprising unless they’ve been crossing an area that has been stretching out. Is it?
I use the following site to monitor drift of the arctic ice, the results are consistent with their reports. Initially strong flow against their direction of travel, then no drift, followed by drift towards the pole. If I were them I’d be ‘aiming off’ to the left to make the best progress. http://cersat.ifremer.fr/data/discovery/by_product_type/gridded_products/psi_amsr_drift
It is a nice MODEL of the biotelemetry, just as good as observation!
Hrrumph!
Those numbers are built into the flash swf. There is no attempt to contact the server to update the .swf.
For the technical: A swf that was updating real time would have to contact the server for the latest data. It would do this using a XMLHTTPRequest object which is the wizardry behind AJAX, or it would attempt to open a direct socket which generally gets the browser squawking.
My firefox firebug developer add-on can detect no attempt to contact the server.
This swf was never designed to be able to get live data.
(and it is a bugger to get right)
If, on seeing the .fla, this swf came from, I am wrong, I’ll be happy to retract.
But until then my accusation of deliberate deception stands.
Pamela Gray
April 8, 2009 7:26 pm
Isn’t this the same thing as having somebody else pee in the cup?
Don S.
April 8, 2009 7:32 pm
So, anybody email Maslowski yet? His CV looks pretty good, that is he doesn’t look like a con man even though he is a modeler, but his expertise is beyond my ken. I’d like to see his answer the questions: Are those guys really out there and transmitting data on ice thickness and age to your office? Show me the data.
Don S.
April 8, 2009 7:33 pm
drat: “his answer to the question.”
Jack
April 8, 2009 7:38 pm
This silly expedition seems to be an apt metaphor for the entire AGW cause: doubtful premise; manipulated or non-existent data; results not matching the theory, denial of reality, manipulation of the media, support by the ignorant and venal etc. etc. Ultimately the truth will be revealed; with consequent ridicule of the movment’s leaders. The dupes will mostly disappear – like the Nazis’ supporters did after WW2, and Mao’s after the “Great Leap Forward”.
sigh
Ohioholic
April 8, 2009 7:49 pm
Hmm. Seems like someone was caught with their hand in the cookie jar.
Still, I would like these people to come home safe and sound.
Jack
April 8, 2009 7:49 pm
This expedition is an apt metaphor for the entire AGW movement.
D. King
April 8, 2009 7:49 pm
Again with the numbers. How are you supposed to debate
the science when they manipulate the data? I don’t even
trust the satellite data any more.
It seems Martin and Ann are always excited… For example, Ann’s cardiac frequency goes up to 164.7 beats per minute. Normal CF (without exercising and depending of body’s requirements of oxygen) is 60-80 per minute. On the other hand, Martin has always a cardiac frequency above 90 beats per minute. I think Ann and Martin are suffering some kind of arctic fever.
Del
April 8, 2009 7:58 pm
Here’s the press release from Hidalgo which provided the EquivitalTM body worn physiological monitoring system. http://www.prlog.org/10205861-catlin-arctic-survey-uses-equivital-physiological-monitoring-system.html
“The Equivital™ unit will continuously record and transmit the wearer’s physiological data, which will be sent to the survey vessel’s onboard Central Data Unit before being transmitted back to the UK HQ. In particular, core body temperatures will be recorded and sent back to track team members’ physical and mental responses when exposed to extended periods in extremely low temperatures. What this ultimately means is, at the beginning of the expedition, when ambient air temperatures are still as low as -50C, website visitors can witness first hand the detrimental effect that such conditions have on the human body. “
Jim Arndt (17:45:06): Hey Anthony,
People can correct me but even in perfect conditions I believe your body temp changes more than that. Hence we sweat or shiver. Didn’t you post that they are slurring their speech, that means core temp should have dropped quite a bit. Just doesn’t seem right.
Yes, human body’s temperature could vary more than that according with the environment temperature and the delay on organism’s response. However, there is a highly sensitive feedback biosystem which ammends immediately those sharp changes of temperature. Here a fragment from my thesis on Biophysics: There are several channels of heat transfer between the human body and its environment. Some channels end in the corium, internal with respect to the epidermis; other channels “cross” muscles, fat layer, epidermis and hair, until reaching the interface or viscous boundary layer, which connects the body system with the environment and where the heat is transferred to the surrounds by conduction, convection, radiation and evaporation, if the body is within air, or by conduction, convection and radiation, if it is submerged in water.
Sandy
April 8, 2009 8:05 pm
Hmm, managed to isolate a swf and it is trying to contact something (dev.indiapapa,tv for those interested). Next try and see whether it gets a text file 🙁
Mark T
April 8, 2009 8:17 pm
Phil. (19:18:49) :
If I were them I’d be ‘aiming off’ to the left to make the best progress.
If I were them I’d be doing my damnedest to make sure that I was not going to be made into a martyr for the cause: I’d get on the next supply plane. Actually, I’d have simply looked at the satellite data and never left the comfort of my office.
Mark
crosspatch
April 8, 2009 8:24 pm
completely off topic (but hey, we never get an “open” thread around here 🙂
Has NASA ever done this:
Take a picture of a place, say the Orion Nebula, and six months later take another picture of the same spot, and then combine them as a stereoscopic image to make basically a 3D picture of how it would look if your eyes were as far apart as the orbit of Earth?
Bill Jamison
April 8, 2009 8:30 pm
Wow that’s fascinating! I wonder if we’ll hear some justification/excuse from Catlin support team!
pft
April 8, 2009 8:34 pm
Nasif Nahle (19:49:48) :
“It seems Martin and Ann are always excited… I think Ann and Martin are suffering some kind of arctic fever.”
Either that or they are sharing the same sleeping bag.
Amazing. I was actually checking this page often, being surprised that his body is only at 33 deg C. And the numbers looked similar all the time. But I was never able to see that they’re exactly identical all the time, as a function of the time from the loading.
For an expedition that pretends to measure temperature-related things scientifically, it is not exactly encouraging to see that the procedure to measure their own temperatures and pulse rates is based on a complete fraud.
jorgekafkazar
April 8, 2009 8:46 pm
Jack (19:38:48) said: “This silly expedition seems to be an apt metaphor for the entire AGW cause: doubtful premise; manipulated or non-existent data; results not matching the theory, denial of reality, manipulation of the media, support by the ignorant and venal etc. etc.”
And ultimately torpedoed by global hypothermia.
John F. Hultquist
April 8, 2009 8:48 pm
There is an Arctic Buoy 60-day drift map here: http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_track-map.html
I don’t see any Lat/Long here so it appears it would take some effort to plot the team’s progress, or lack thereof, on a map like this.
Shawn F.
April 8, 2009 8:59 pm
Well, I hope my comment is useful but in my analysis of the biofeedback html I am finding that the swf (the flash component of the page) is not the requester of the data but rather consumes ajax information via javascript. Therefore, it could be possible that the page is requesting live data from another site and feeding it to the swf via javascript (although I have already checked that possibility and the data is coming from off site, but it appears to be “canned” data).
I believe I have verified that the following are the calls being made from the page per “explorer”: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=pen http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=ann http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=martin
You can verify the data without the querystring: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php for the total xml file.
I have saved a copy of this xml and will check to see if it changes.
I appreciate the good people here who drive out the corruption to truth and science. This site is preserving my sanity! REPLY: Thank you Shawn, this appears to be the root data. I’ve loaded the http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php file and it appears to indeed be hard coded. For those juts joining this discussion, the Catlin website has a footer at the bottom of each page that identifies the website developer:
Produced by http://www.indigopapa.com
And that is where the XML data file requested by the flash used to drive the “biometrics” page comes from. I suppose it is possible that this data file would be regularly updated, but the fact that they have a date selector on the biometrics web page that does nothing, and calls this same file again and again points to a hard wiring of this data. WUWT readers, especially those with flash and XML experience, please weigh in and point out anything you see that either supports or refutes this conjecture. – Anthony
Ozzie John
April 8, 2009 9:00 pm
The unusual thing here is that although it looks like the temperature data has been generated by a computer model, a small cooling trend is observed ?
Roger Knights
April 8, 2009 9:08 pm
“The unusual thing here is that although it looks like the temperature data has been generated by a computer model, a small cooling trend is observed ?”
LOL! Quote of the week!
crosspatch
April 8, 2009 9:08 pm
“For an expedition that pretends to measure temperature-related things scientifically, it is not exactly encouraging ”
It is the silence that is what is most disturbing. But maybe it is a time thing. They appear to be based in London so they won’t be waking up for a few more hours. Give them time to respond. The entire planet doesn’t operate on US time.
D W
April 8, 2009 9:15 pm
real life Groundhog Day!
The good news is that when Bill Murray was stuck in the cycle he couldn’t kill himself if he tried.
crosspatch
April 8, 2009 9:25 pm
“Why would anyone strap a “hand warmer” to a device designed to measure temperature?”
Why would anyone put a temperature measurement device directly in the path of jet exhaust at an airport?
I am seeing a pattern. And it is more than just about temperature. There seems to be an entire culture of making the numbers justify the agenda. The latest manifestation is here. Since the Arbitron device has been out and accurately measures what people actually listen to ( as opposed to what they SAY they listen to with the diary system ) the ratings have been taking a politically incorrect turn. So the answer is to shoot the messenger. Get rid of the evil bearer of the bad news and get the data back “on message”. If real data won’t validate your agenda, you just have to make it up, I suppose. “Adjust it” or place thermometers in the middle of parking lots, whatever it takes to make the data reflect the agenda. And it is more than just climate. It is a culture of lying … the end justifies the means. Sad.
hotrod
April 8, 2009 9:26 pm
Does anyone have access to flight control radar that covers the flights of the twin otter or able to pull flight plans to see if any actual flight plans have been filed for their resupply missions?
Anyone know anyone that works at the home station of their resupply otter that can confirm they have actually made any resupply flights as indicated in their blogs?
Has their twin otter fueled to make the alleged flights?
Was this project funded in any part by Bernie Maddoff ? ( just kidding —- sort of )
Where is a good investigative reporter when you need one?
Larry
Lubos Motl (20:46:27) : Amazing. I was actually checking this page often, being surprised that his body is only at 33 deg C.
Hi, Lubos… That has an explanation: The temperature sensors were placed directly on the skin, not into corporal cavities. For that reason, the reported temperatures are not the actual temperature of their bodies, but the temperature of the skin on which thermometric sensors were placed. The mean temperature of the skin in warm latitudes is 33 °C, which makes your observation on a quasi-constant temperature under an atmosphere at -30 °C very interesting. For example, if I am in front of a fan, the temperature of my skin would be 30.4 °C; if I move to an area far away from the fan, where the fresh air doesn’t reach me, my skin’s temperature would rise up to 31.3 °C. At this moment, the temperature of my chest skin (clothed body and on the same area on where the sensors were placed to the arctic team) is 35.1 °C, while the air temperature is 26.4 °C.
David Ball
April 8, 2009 9:29 pm
They were “projecting” when they said “oil company shill”. Is it beneath us to say “carbon credit shill”? After hearing “oil company shill” for thirty years, and never having seen any actual money from ANY oil company, it sure is tempting. Has anyone noticed that Shell Oil is one of the sponsored links on the Discovery Channels’ website? Apparently, we are to do as they say, not as they do. Still, I am worried about what these “grape-nuts” will do once the AGW scam has been defrocked. What other mischievous little cookie jars will they be into next? Clearly, their deceitfulness knows no bounds, so better to keep them where we can see them, than to not know what they are up to. Better the “devil you know”, etc…….
Lance
April 8, 2009 9:34 pm
I’ll give them a break for having to fake the biotelemetry on a web site. Sure there should be a disclaimer about recorded bio readings that may be repleted. For all I know, it may have worked for a few days and then went teats up.
I do have to admit, that does put into question in my mind, any true data coming out of his royal Hi-ass sponsored science expedition. Where are all the Britain’s speaking on his BS( bad science)? And why don’t they have a GPS strapped to them, readings their progress each day, for at least safety reasons? I mean they took the time to put biotelemetry, but not a few bucks for video tape/digital recordings as records of their everyday journey?
This has to be one of the worst planned out expedition surviving on dumb luck or we’re all being taken for ride for the all mighty buck of AGW agenda. If anyone lives in the areas these folks reside, in a none stalking way, stake out their places and see if they have even gone anywhere?
I’m sure we’ll have live video on tape in May with low camera shots taken with the sun in the background on BBC telling us the arctic is almost free of ice and 2009 is the hottest year on record “all over the world”.
This is just getting silly, who really believes in this farce anymore?
Nic
April 8, 2009 9:39 pm
re update #2:
the metal cover on the Seacat instrument conceals an electrical conductivity cell which is a glass tube containing electrodes that measure the conductivity of ocean water. When the instrument is deployed, water flows through the tube, as the instrument records the conductivity data. (more information than you will ever want is at the manufacturer’s site: http://www.seabird.com)
A potential problem when these devices are used in the polar regions is that once the instrument is recovered, the cell may retain water which then freezes very quickly in the much colder air temperatures. If the glass tube cracks as a result of the freezing, then the measurements will no longer be accurate. The hand warmers are presumably used after the instrument is recovered to assist in draining out any residual water before the instrument is stored.
You could ask them of course; they’d know better than I would.
EricH
April 8, 2009 9:42 pm
I can assure Robert Wood, 15:10:28, they haven’t even been seen as far north as Scunthorpe. I live there.
kuhnkat
April 8, 2009 9:43 pm
I can’t believe that they are not using sat links to upload data as it is gathered!! They could have used a couple of those cuddly polar bears to carry the equipment!!
Addendum on my answer to Lubos’ post.
Amazingly, if the mean temperature of their skin is 33 °C, it means that they are losing heat disproportionately from the interior of their bodies, as if they were under a summery environment. Are you sure they are in the arctic?
Shawn F.
April 8, 2009 10:02 pm
The only other details concerning the source xml that is used to load the swf display is that there is no script apparent to load the files – they have to be replaced manually as far as I can determine. Also, a whois on the site results in this info
Domain name: INDIGOPAPA.TV
Administrative Contact:
Bowman, Steven
23 Old Broad Street
London, Gr London EC2N 1HQ
GB
07974565821
Technical Contact:
Bowman, Steven
23 Old Broad Street
London, Gr London EC2N 1HQ
GB
07974565821
That might be more info than anyone needs. This is the host and person who set up the website. If someone really, really wanted answers they could email Mr Bowman stevenbowman@live.co.uk REPLY: Thanks tried that, a dead end. Here is what I got. – Anthony
Sorry, we were unable to deliver your message to the following address. stevenbowman@live.co.uk:
Remote host said: 550 Requested action not taken: mailbox unavailable [RCPT_TO]
AndrewWH
April 8, 2009 10:18 pm
I feel it would be helpful if someone like Christopher Booker ran with this information to get the issue further out into the mainstream. This should have the benefit of pressuring Catlin to respond to the questions being raised.
Glenn
April 8, 2009 10:26 pm
Don S. (19:32:29) :
“So, anybody email Maslowski yet? His CV looks pretty good, that is he doesn’t look like a con man even though he is a modeler, but his expertise is beyond my ken. I’d like to see his answer the questions: Are those guys really out there and transmitting data on ice thickness and age to your office? Show me the data.”
Not a chance. Maslowski’s the one who predicts an ice-free summer by 2013 or less, and who Gore got the idea of “in five years” from. There’s too much riding on his models for any “ground truth” data to get in the way so soon. The data expected in September will support the existing data his model uses, unless ice loss is dramatically and undeniably less this summer than the last few years.
Glenn
April 8, 2009 10:41 pm
Mike Bryant (18:49:19) :
“Hadow and his team will be able to offer a provisional snapshot of how long the polar ice cap will last when they reach the North Pole at the end of May but Maslowski’s authoritative findings will not be available until September.”
“Of course, by then it will be obvious to everyone how the melt season progressed. How will they spin the anecdata if the melt is the about the same or less than 2008? How will they spin a reversal of the trend?”
Unless it is a dramatic increase, the same way AGW spins the temp, that a year or two of “variable weather” isn’t enough to reverse the trend. “This year the Arctic had an unusually cold winter and cool spring, but next year or three it will all melt…” kind of thing.
Brian Johnson
April 8, 2009 10:41 pm
From Catlin
Wednesday, 08 Apr 2009 12:59
“The resupply flight has successfully landed and is now heading back towards Resolute.
Re-supplies (4 in total for this expedition) are scheduled well ahead of the Ice Team’s departure, but subject to change because poor weather can prevent the plane landing.
The re-supply plane is stationed at Resolute Bay in Northern Canada, and is scheduled to stop to refuel at the unmanned Isachsen air strip on Ellef Ringes Island. Total flying time from Resolute to the Ice Team’s runway is approximately five hours.
“The pilot will be in contact with the Ice Team throughout the journey to monitor weather conditions”, says London HQ Head of Operations Chip Cunliffe, who flew with the explorers to their initial drop off point on the Arctic Ice at the start of the expedition “They’ll be listening out for the sound of the engine. Re-supplies are eagerly anticipated both for the new equipment and for the human contact.” He goes on to explain that landing on an ice runway is nothing like landing on a conventional runway.
“The pilot circles six or seven times before making a final approach. When the plane first touches the ice it bounces hard several times. It’s quite an unnerving experience if you don’t know what to expect”.
The Ice Team was guided to a suitable looking runway by Radarsat 2 imagery. To ensure a safe landing for the twin-otter, the landing strip must be of an ice-thickness of more than 60cm, at least 12 metres wide and 305 metres long. The strip the team have found is in excess of 1.5m thick and some 500m long, and after several hours of knocking out some large lumps of ice, is now ready for the Twin to land.”
In the event of a landing accident do they have backup aircraft standing by? And who clears up the mess left behind?
Paul S
April 8, 2009 10:42 pm
I feel a conspiracy theory coming on here, similar to the conspiracy’s surrounding the moon landing! Did they go or didn’t they? Lol!
Have e-mailed BBC world news & UK news of your findings directing them to this website. I wonder if it will appear on any news broadcasts???????
Hey I’m an optimist. Enjoy.
crosspatch
April 8, 2009 10:53 pm
“The data expected in September will support the existing data his model uses, unless ice loss is dramatically and undeniably less this summer than the last few years.”
Well, there was more ice in 2008 than there was in 2009 and with measurements so far showing 2009’s ice is about a half-meter thicker than 2008 was, I would say it is now all up to the winds. If the winds keep the ice in the arctic, fine. If the winds blow the ice out into the Atlantic again like they did in 2007, the warmists are going to have a field day claiming the lack of ice was caused by a temperature change.
crosspatch
April 8, 2009 10:54 pm
“Well, there was more ice in 2008 than there was in 2009”
Oops, meant “Well, there was more ice in 2008 than there was in 2007”, of course.
Aron
April 8, 2009 10:57 pm
The European Carbon Exchange which is sponsoring this project is expecting not billions but trillions of Euros to be traded before their eyes this century. In terms of profit it is much more than the oil industry has ever seen because their making money out of thin air. They will not accept anything less than an alarmist scenario. The biggest and most profiteering traders will become the most powerful lobbyists in the world and will have the power to shut all dissent down once the big money starts rolling in. The truth won’t matter to them even if we dropped into another Dalton Minimum event.
If we think we’ll see the back of Islamic terrorism think again. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran’s most profitable export is oil. Carbon trading would cut directly into their profits. The next generation of jihadis could be sent to kill us to force out governments to stop carbon trading. And that is on top of the other reasons they think they already have.
crosspatch
April 8, 2009 11:03 pm
Ceolfrith:
“the occasional red light is a good traffic calming measure”
Yeah, especially if you are waiting on a cross street. We have had synchronized traffic lights for decades. They are reporting this like it is some new brilliant idea. It has been in use in the US for decades.
I made a screenshot of the catlin page on the 2nd and it shows:
Per : 77.1bpm core 34.49 skin 33 17 breaths
Ann: 122.4bpm core 37.41 skin 33.9 30.4 breaths
Martin: 93.5bpm core 37.19 skin 33.4 17.4 breaths
Lots of these values are not in your data so it would appear that they have updated the data somehow since the 2nd April.
REPLY: Thanks for posting that! The data transcribed in the post here is only the first minute or two…but I find the data pairs from your screen cap in the source XML file that Shawn F. located here: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php
Open it and have a look…you’ll find 1224 at 36 comma marks into Ann”s “ecg” data, then count how many comma marks to 3741 on the next line for “coretemp” and you’ll find it is 36 also…
It appears to be the same data on April 2nd also from your screencap.
Anthony
pkatt
April 8, 2009 11:13 pm
I read early on, and I cannot find the blog post now, but sometime right before the first resupply they said that they had hoped to send real time ice data back but were having trouble with the uplink and would have to be content sending the data back by memory card at the resupply. I assumed that it was the ice data they were talking about but perhaps that pertained to the med info as well. Furthermore I bet they are having battery trouble in that sort of cold.. The bio monitors seem to need a pda or phone to send data, I seriously doubt their batteries would last if they sent continuous readings.
you know of course Pen Hadow has pulled this crap before: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html
“The British explorer Pen Hadow was rescued by plane from the North Pole yesterday – and came under immediate criticism from the emergency team “for risking lives” by the “stupid” decision to launch his Arctic mission when the pack ice was melting with the onset of spring.”
So if it was stupid in 2003 how come its so smart in 2009?? Im pretty sure even though the last name here is Haddow and in the article is Hadow, it is the same stupid person.
Richard111
April 8, 2009 11:22 pm
I was looking at this site last night… http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
and it mentioned the Catlin team preparing a runway on the ice for the resupply plane. That entry has now vanished. Team had spent several hours removing lumps from the 500 meter landing site. Ice thickness was claimed to be in excess of 1.5 meters.
Now nothing !!!
chillybean
April 8, 2009 11:26 pm
I take it all back, just watched the live site for a few minutes and up popped my screenshot values. The data HAS NOT changed since the 2nd April.
What a shameful scam.
chillybean – see my reply above in your previous comment…the bio data is from a fixed file – Anthony
crosspatch
April 8, 2009 11:32 pm
Heh, just dawned on me that there is another possibility. They might have contracted out all this biotelemetry stuff to a third party who simple created some data files and has ripped them off. Might have figured that if the date file is large enough, nobody will notice that it repeats. So you charge someone many thousands of dollars to provide bio data and feed them canned data you generated ahead of time. You just have to monitor the radio and make sure you switch off a stream in case something unfortunate happens to one of the members to avoid being caught out. REPLY: The “root” datafile is being served from the website designer and provider for the entire web setup; http://www.indigopapa.tv I’ve sent them an email asking the questions. – Anthony
Richard111
April 8, 2009 11:33 pm
Why no update on the resupply. The BBC site was last updated 3 April 2009.
The landing was scheduled for 10 48 am their local time the next day.
chillybean
April 8, 2009 11:36 pm
Just a thought,
Are we sure that they actually went to the Arctic.
Could we be witnessing a re-run of The Last Voyage of Donald Crowhurst. This was when a round the world yachtsman decided that it was too difficult to actually complete the solo circumnavigation. Instead he just radioed back false positional data.
Joking of course (nervously)
Glenn
April 8, 2009 11:37 pm
“So if it was stupid in 2003 how come its so smart in 2009?? Im pretty sure even though the last name here is Haddow and in the article is Hadow, it is the same stupid person.”
That’s him. Now with Catlin expecting to be at the Pole in June, with 3 people, who likely all believe the ice is almost all going to melt this summer. Somehow I just can’t wrap my mind around believing anything these people claim, including data reports.
CodeTech
April 8, 2009 11:39 pm
crosspatch,
You DO know that the “6 month apart, width of Earth’s orbit” method is how we determine the distance of distant objects, right? Of course, the problem is that the width of Earth’s orbit relative to stellar distances is not nearly enough stereo spread to get much depth perception.
To put it in perspective, 2 AUs (the distance between the Earth now and the Earth 6 months from now) compared to even Alpha Centauri (obviously our closest stellar neighbor) would be like us looking at something a mile away with our eyes 0.00001mm apart. And yes, I pulled that number completely out of thin air, but I’m pretty sure I’m in the right ballpark, IF I have enough zeroes in there.
Measuring stellar distances is accomplished by the apparent shift relative to background, while stereo vision depth perception is accomplished by differing parts of an object being visible to two different observation points.
chillybean
April 8, 2009 11:43 pm
“chillybean – see my reply above in your previous comment…the bio data is from a fixed file – Anthony”
I was checking that the fixed file had not been updated, can happen 😉
crosspatch
April 8, 2009 11:44 pm
My couple of my UK co-workers have come online now but they are early risers and are connecting from their homes … so it shouldn’t be long before some people in London begin to realize the repeating data has been noticed. I would expect to hear something in the next couple of hours …. or not.
Aron
April 8, 2009 11:51 pm
You’ve already seen the Monty Python expedition videos I posted. Back in those days it was common for comedians to make fun of the way the BBC and British explorers would spend lots of money on fanciful expeditions and adventures that achieved nothing.
Here’s Spike Milligan’s take
The Top Gear expedition to the North Pole also made fun of it all by showcasing all the gin they drank and the basketful of posh snacks and wine they took with them.
What we’re seeing with the biotelemetry data page is basically the same thing. They’ve gone and spent money on souping up their webpage and buying equipment so they can look mighty impressive and scientifically advanced to their sponsors, the media and the public. But it is all a gimmick and the expedition itself is not scientific.
Glenn
April 8, 2009 11:54 pm
A little more wierdness from Pen Hadow: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/2625521/Ryanair-boss-in-row-with-explorer-Pen-Hadow-over-emergency-landing.html
“My highest priority was to get a mask on to my son who was sitting next to me in a bemused and frightened state.”
He went on: “Mine wasn’t filling up with oxygen and neither was my son’s.
Pen, your highest priority was to get a mask on yourself, so you wouldn’t pass out before you got one on yourself. And the airbags do not “fill up”.
As a professional survivalist you should have known this, even if you needed to read emergency instructions and never listened to the attendant explaining.
crosspatch
April 8, 2009 11:59 pm
Codetech
“Of course, the problem is that the width of Earth’s orbit relative to stellar distances is not nearly enough stereo spread to get much depth perception.”
ok, so use a telescope in orbit at Jupiter’s distance. It should be easy enough to make park a scope at a Jovian Lagrangian point … or Saturn … or Neptune even.
They key here is that they will keep up reporting fake telemetry from the ice until it melts, then they will be reported as dying from drowning due to AGW.
Roger Knights
April 9, 2009 12:23 am
Did any team members, during the course of their broadcasts, make statements regarding their body-temperature data that had the effect of validating the computer-generated data as authentic? For instance, did they make readout by eyeball of their temperatures and discuss them? Did they play along with this charade, IOW? If so, this affair will be harder to explain away.
Looking at their equipment sponsor, Cotswold, the most extreme sleeping bag they offer has a lower comfort point of -25 C. If they are sleeping in -40 C conditions in a bag (assuming they are using the most extreme model the company carries) with a lower limit of -25C, they are significantly underequipped and whoever made the equipment decisions for this expedition should be held responsible for whatever happens to the expedition members.
Allegedly the resupply plane has arrived. Can we get a report on whether the expedition members are still alive? Are they getting new equipment?
Joshua Nieuwsma
April 9, 2009 12:57 am
Anthony, et al, apologies for the length.
I followed the trail as well using Whois. Shawn F. already posted about the WHOIS site info for indigopapa.tv. (Interesting, but not particularly noteworthy – http://www.indigopapa.com is redirected to http://www.indigopapa.tv/.) Shawn noted that the the owner of IndigoPapa is Steven Bowman (whois.domaaintools.com/indigopapa.com).
What I find more interesting is looking at registration dates and IP address information, and then conducting a little web archive searching.
The IP address listed for Indigopapa.tv, using the handy Reverse IP lookup, is 213.171.196.88. This, coincidentally happens to be the same IP address used for Catlinarcticsurvey.com, and Thearcticsurvey.com (currently shut down, but more on that below).
Check out the dates that the domains were registered: ‘Thearcticsurvey.com was registered on 2007-12-18’. ‘IndigoPapa.tv’ was registered on 2008-01-26. And ‘Catlinarcticsurvey.com’ was registered on 2008-08-19. Can we say… Odd?
But it keeps going. I looked up Thearcticsurvey.com to see whether there was any history of it being an actual website, and I came across this: http://web.archive.org/web/20080207084115/http://www.thearcticsurvey.com/. Unfortunately, the site was only up for one archived day in 2008 – February 7, 2008. One wonders why it was so quickly shut down, since the Catlin site wasn’t created until the 19th of August, 2008. We know it hadn’t been up before December 12th of 2007, since that’s when it was first registered.
Perhaps I’m behind on things, or just haven’t read enough, but I didn’t know that this Arctic Survey was supposed to have happened last year… I couldn’t see any mention of this past research and efforts on their new website. Back to the Internet Wayback Machine: on the archived page is a YouTube link. So I followed that, and found that http://www.youtube.com/user/vancoarcticsurvey is the original YouTube site for the original Survey expedition. Same people, different name – the Vanco Arctic Survey. In fact, by googling that name I discovered they were supposed to have done this thing last year: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&num=20&q=vanco+arctic+survey http://www.itwire.com/content/view/14886/1066/ http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-10-16-arctic-explorers_N.htm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7036058.stm
It appears they were supposed to have left March 1st 2008 (assuming the captured date on the archived page is accurate, and it was to be 20 days later). I wonder what cancelled it… my guess is that the Vanco telecomm company stopped sponsoring the expedition, and so they had to cancel it for that year. Thus, now it is Catlin, and its much more spruced up.
Anyhow, the YouTube site is dated October 17, 2007 and that’s the day they posted their hilarious North Pole Ice Cap in Peril video –
Fearmongering video (Pen Hadlow, Video; Martin Hartley, Polar Bear & Walrus Photography) aside… I think they obviously followed the advice of youtube commentator PlanetThoughts and got things revamped and spruced up with ‘respectability’ for a rerun in 2009.
I do have a little experience with Flash and .fla files and web design. I am very suspicious of the looped hard-coded data. These are my thoughts: IndigoPapa does seem to have done real work, and some of it at a rather high level (London Stock Exchange, for one). If that’s the case, then at the least they’re well connected (I wonder who started the company, since it is so recent and so well placed). However, they only came into existance about 2 months, at least their website did (and they only do online stuff… so…) after the first Vanco/Catlin videos were posted on Youtube, and right after the first domain name for the expedition was created. From my searching, IndigoPapa does have a history of having clients’ files hosted in their Studio subdirectory on their domain name, so I think that’s normal for these xml files. What is more odd is that the XML files have no coding to update with new data being stored in nearby databases. Also odd is that there is no date on the file. For something as ‘scientific’ as this expedition, you’d think they’d want date/time stamps on all their data. Certainly someone could just be creating the XMl files and publishing them to the site, to be brought into the Catlin site, but as we’ve figured out that’s not happening. The files are the same for days at least. Also interesting to me is the fact that the Flash on the Catlin survey site will ALWAYS show the equipment as ‘operational’. There’s no way to update that.
Unfortunately, unless XML files have the date/time query written into the code, there’s no real way to know when the file was written without hacking the website. But it sure looks to me like someone just created something to use as a loop, and left it that way. It might not be truly intentional – perhaps they just couldn’t get the data to update the way they intended, and decided not to bother with it. But I wonder who owns this IndigoPapa company, and why they let Catlin, but no other clients, host their website on the same server. And how they got so highly placed with corporations in Britain and America without any prior online history, at least that I found.
And, as I’m finishing up this unfortunately lengthy comment, I note that I can no longer access the http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com website, although http://www.indigopapa.tv is still available and working and streaming video (do a yahoo search for indigopapa.tv). Looks like they took the Catlin survey site offline as Crosspatch apparently expected. I’m curious to see what their excuse is once the site is back up.
In closing, here’s a quote from Pen Hadow (link referenced above) when he was first interviewed by the BBC in 2007 about his expedition: “Now my level of knowledge, interest and commitment has moved me away from the adventure, and now I feel it is my social responsibility to represent her – the Arctic Ocean – as best as I am able; because she needs friends right now.” I think that about sums up the scientific integrity of this expedition.
Robert David Graham
April 9, 2009 1:17 am
I REFUTE YOUR CONJECTURE, with this link: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=p'en
It’s not an “XML file”, as you claim. It’s a database query that is formatted by a script into XML.
The database query has a bug that only pulls the first 3000 entries from the database. The site was correctly reporting live data until that 3000 entry limit was reached. After that point, the data appeared static and unchanging, like a file.
The simple fix would be to change the PHP/SQL script to remove that limit, or to retrieve the last 3000 entries instead of the first 3000.
There is no malicious intent to deceive, it’s a simple coding error. They tested it, and it appeared to work for a while, until it reached that limit and stopped working.
The live data is in the database. Once they fix this bug, everything will work again. [Reply: So when they fix this, will we be able to see their frozen breath being exhaled? ~dbstealey, mod.]
Oops, the above URL does not get formatted as I want. You need to have p’en at the end, with the quote character as part of the url. Let’s see if this second attempt works: test
Ared
April 9, 2009 1:22 am
Hi, I’m pretty new at programming websites myself, so if I’m talking noobspeak here, please excuse me.
But the link that points to the .xml file is actually a .php file. That means that prior to sending data to your browser, there is server-side processing going on. With php, you can access databases without people at the browser-side seeing what is going on. The output to the browser will look just as if the data was hardcoded in the file.
All this does not mean we’re seeing real data, just that the xml is probably fed with the most recent data from a mysql database. If the DB is not updated (we know they have problems sending data) and the query is sloppy, you will always get the most recent n rows when you request data for a date that is not in the DB yet.
If I’d programmed it, the query would result in an empty set when requesting a date for which there is no data, but maybe there was a conscious decision to show the most current data instead (looks better on the site, of course). Or they didn’t plan what to do in case of missing data, resulting in unexepected query results (in this case a loop of last known data).
I wouldn’t bet on planned deception, but being naive in what they would be able to show us. The latter fits the pattern of the whole trip better.
That last link works. When you follow it, you’ll see an error message disclosing the original SQL script, with it’s 3000 entry limitation. If you are clever, you can actually overcome that limitation and pull all the entries from the database.
Graeme Rodaughan
April 9, 2009 1:29 am
This is so damn easy to verify.
Just go to the site… http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Check this heart rate data for Hadow
91
91.3
93.9
95.1
Hit the Refresh button and it always goes back to 91, then follows the pattern.
It’s deliberate and it’s fake – someone should hang their head in shame.
We could rename this the “Milli Vanilli” Expedition.
Robert Bateman
April 9, 2009 1:42 am
If they are where they say they are, exposed to -35 to -50C temps and dressed like they are said to be, they are long dead. Perhaps the Polar Bear ate them and the back & forth map is simply the sensors inside the bear as it travels it’s route.
The stories are simply dragged out and in the end they will report them missing, never to be found. I’m sure the Insurance Company has itself well-covered in fine print.
Now, if the helicopter did visit and bring supplies, we’d be seeing bunches of videos and live interviews, etc. Don’t you think the media would eat this up with a fork & spoon? The 3 brave IceKateers on a frolicking romp to the pole. Live from the Arctic: Tonight at 6pm.
Robert Bateman
April 9, 2009 1:48 am
Arctic Idol. Meet Ann, hear all about her ice-shatteing exploits and get the in-depth scoop on frozen soup. Extra, extra, read all about it. See pics of Ann on her way to stardom. Hear all about her lifelong obsession with ice.
pby (17:17:00) :
Nathan Hale said before he was hung by the British that he regrets that he had only one life to give for his country.
Hanged.
Mike the grammar n**i
Watch the video at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962022.stm
Q: Why can’t you see his breath?
Q: If the temps are -30 and below why is his face uncovered and why is he not wearing gloves?
I can’t work it out. Maybe there’s an innocent explanation.
Martin A
April 9, 2009 1:52 am
The equipment supplier’s technical page states that temperature is sampled at 0.25Hz (i.e. every 4 seconds) but that the reporting frequency is every 15 seconds. Therefore no “live” reporting is possible since measurements can only ever be at least 15 seconds delayed.
Since the Catlin “live from the ice” web page is updating every 4 seconds, this can only give a false resolution of temperature. It would be more “truthful” (but less resolved), to report the latest of the several sampled temperatures, or the average of the sampled temperatures in the 15 second interval.
The website cannot both update every 4 seconds as it does, and truthfully report it as “live from the ice” without disclaimer. This is a pedantic point but just adds to the feeling that this data stinks.
It looks to me more as if the Flash was always designed to step through a multi-value data file with 4 second delay, rather than respond to real data.
Squidly
April 9, 2009 1:57 am
I am not into conspiracies, but I believe this is all a hoax, fits right into AGW. I was suspicious of the biotelemetry from the start, not from an observational standpoint, but from a logical standpoint. I thought it to be simply too amazing. This simply discredits anything coming from this stunt (for me). This kind of stunt is also quite consistent with much of the AGW mantra. If these folks actually do publish any kind of data or findings associated with this spectacle, I would encourage all to be very skeptical and do your do diligence to uncover any inconsistencies and any sort of claims.
Medic1532
April 9, 2009 2:09 am
Just left an email with Equivital pointing them to this site also asked them if they are comfortable being adverisers on a site that is using fake/recorded data from their equipment. JG
Neil Cozens
April 9, 2009 2:13 am
Had thought there was something funny going on. I was watching Ann Daniels Heartrate and saw it at 123 odd, I then re-freshed page and it was down at 89 odd. A drop of 30 bpm in qa matter of seconds !
I know she must be fit but, that’s and impressive feat – being able to lower heart rate that much and that quickly 🙂
Dear Nasif Nahle, I am not sure whether you have actually seen the page we are talking about. First, only Pen Hadow has these low temperatures. His companions’ temperature is reported as being 4 deg C higher. Second, the page pretends to measure both surface temperature and the internal temperature, as two different quantities for each person. Third, all the numbers are generated according to a standard regular prescription.
John Trigge
April 9, 2009 2:31 am
As of approx 1024GMT 09Apr they have reported that the resupply was successful.
They also state:
“The next leg will bring 24 hours daylight allowing the team further opportunity to progress north whilst surveying increasing amounts of sea ice each day. ”
So they are expecting INCREASING amounts of sea ice which seems to belie their aim of proving that the ice is thinning due to AGW.
Thinking about SPRITE, their ice penetrating radar, how well would it allow for not being level as I am sure the team are traveling over some very rough ice and they may be measuring at a slant angle? Does anyone have any further info on this device to see if it has any stabilisation or angle compensation? Google searches for SPRITE only bring up the Catlin survey pages – probably because they coined the acronym.
Perry Debell
April 9, 2009 2:38 am
“Catlin Arctic Survey expedition leader Pen Hadow says that, 37 days into the Project and having drilled into the ice in hundreds of different spots, his observations would seem to support this latest research.” What and whose peer reviewed research? NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Oh really!! Botht hose organisations are flawed at their hearts and I think they are not to be trusted. That’s my opinion.
“The drilling experiments I’m doing are showing the ice to be between 1.5 and 2 metres thick”, he told Independent Television News. “Scientists say that means it will not last the summer melt”.
Who are these “Scientists” Pen? A 2 metres thickness of ice is too thin to last the summer eh? We shall see, but if the expedition carries on as it going, they may not make it back with all their appendages intact. Current weather is a sunny -34°C.
Punchline of hoary British joke. “ere mister, d’you do brazing?
Explanation. “It’s cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey”.
Reid
April 9, 2009 2:40 am
The lesson of this expedition is that Arctic publicity stunts should be conducted in July.
Alan the Brit
April 9, 2009 3:01 am
Pft;-))
That’s exactly what went thro’ my mind when I saw those remarks, but that’s just me I suppose! Poor old Pen he’s probalby had to cuddle up to a soft fluffy polar bear pup, just like those sitting on an icefloe in the latest c*%p from WWF advertising to Adopt a Polar Bear. Funny really, I’ve never thought of a skilled, cunning, & ruthless, natural born killer as soft cuddly & fluffy!! Perhaps it’s time for a re-show of “Kingdom of the Ice Bear” by Hugh Miles & Mike Salisbury? That wonderful programme, & equally wonderful book, showed fantastic photographs of polar bears hunting in & out of the water deep within the Arctic Circle, & even comments on how good swmmers they are! Also it possess a map on the inner fly leaf showing an area of “permanent” ice, which appears to be much smaller than the NSDIC summer melt website view. Date of programme & book – 1985!
Lance;-) We BRITONS live in BRITAIN, I know it’s confusing. As for the Prince of Fools, one can only hope his dear beloved wise old sage Mother lives for ever. On the other hand, if he becomes the Constitutional Monarch, (heaven forbid), he will have to keep his trap well & truly shut in public. He should go back to talking to his plants at Highgrove where they’ll benefit from the added CO2 he breathes over them. It is probably a case of Britons being fed up with him & his eco-speak, (although he seems a decent enough chap) that we just close our ears to it all, but deeply fear his flawed knowledge, but he has the ears & eyes of those who in turn have have his, it’s a mutual appreciation society I guess. He always has been that way inlclined ever since I can remember. Perhaps he should go to the pole himself?
Aron:-))) loved the Spike Milligan clip, 24 carat gold! He & his weird & wonderful & at times lavatorial (literally in that clip) sense of humour are sadly missed.
I’ll follow that Catlin site closely from now on. This is so embarrassing, this country used to be world leaders in the scientific process, now we seem to be world chumps at it, & more embarrassingly, pleased to be so!
AtB 😉
richard jenkins
April 9, 2009 3:04 am
The more I look, the more this looks like ‘Piltdown man’ in the artic…
scientific fraud at its best. Now all the data is on ‘standby’
POG
April 9, 2009 3:11 am
Latest message on the page :
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
Lol, and I just noticed that Pen hadrow has manged to clone himself, and now appears to be completing the trip with just him and his two clones.
pkatt (23:13:17) :
You know of course Pen Hadow has pulled this crap before: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html
“The British explorer Pen Hadow was rescued by plane from the North Pole yesterday – and came under immediate criticism from the emergency team “for risking lives” by the “stupid” decision to launch his Arctic mission when the pack ice was melting with the onset of spring.”
I wonder if Pen’s two latest companions are aware of this?
MIke
April 9, 2009 3:18 am
The team’s biometrics page status is now Standby with no data being displayed.
JimB
April 9, 2009 3:21 am
“Edward:
Could this mission be biased from the start? It seems at least 4 of these 23 sponsors will benefit in some way if the data collected supports AGW!”
You’re kidding, right? The stated goals were to show how BAD global warming REALLY IS. Of course it’s biased and has been from Day 1.
“Jim Cripwell:
Am I being cynical when I speculate that the Catlin expedition dont want anyone to see the raw data on ice thickness? That they wish to “process” it before making the results known? Just a thought.:”
No, not too cynical at all. Did you catch the comment from the ice that “…our measurements SEEM to agree with that…”
Thars sum seye-ence fur ya.
Regarding the “sensor” with the hand warmer, from their website:
“After a small hole is made in the ice (Using the Mora Ice Drill) this CTD is lowered from just under the ice to a depth of 300m at about 0.5 m/s”
So I stop, in -40C weather, drill a small hole in the ice with my ice drill, and then I lower this sensor 300m (1,000′) at 1/2m/sec, that’s 600 seconds? So it takes me 10 minutes to get the sensor down, and the same to retract it?…so 20mins plus the time to drill the hole. And to do this, I have to unpack all the equipment, and then pack it back up when I’m done, again, in -40C temps. This has to take an hour to do?…maybe more.
So how many of these measurements are going to be taken? And yes, as pointed out prevoiusly, the “hand warmer” notation on Caitlin’s site is kind of odd, eh?
JimB
JimB
April 9, 2009 3:26 am
“Mark:
If I were them I’d be doing my damnedest to make sure that I was not going to be made into a martyr for the cause: I’d get on the next supply plane. Actually, I’d have simply looked at the satellite data and never left the comfort of my office.
Mark”
On this, I disagree. They’re doing exactly what many of us here at WUWT have criticized others for NOT doing, and that’s getting out in the field and actually observing something.
That the thing they’re observing is their digits turning black and falling off is secondary :), and is certainly part of the science.
JimB
MartinGAtkins
April 9, 2009 3:26 am
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
In other words, they are looking for a way of hiding their deceit. http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Julie
April 9, 2009 3:26 am
Just curious, but when ths Pen Haddow was rescued last time, did they also remove his sledge & contents (including the rubbish he must have accumlated)? Or was that just abandoned…?
Usually on rescue missions, the only thing the rescuers are interested in extracting is the person(s) at risk.
Squidly
April 9, 2009 3:29 am
Sandy (20:05:11) :
Hmm, managed to isolate a swf and it is trying to contact something (dev.indiapapa,tv for those interested). Next try and see whether it gets a text file 🙁
Why don’t you just decompile the swf and look at the source code? If you search around the net, you can find flash decompilers here and there. Pretty simple exercise really. Perhaps if I get a little free time this weekend, I will go do that for you and tell you exactly what their little flash presentation is doing.
B Kerr
April 9, 2009 3:29 am
Oh dear oh dear oh dear.
Catlin has just announced
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.”
I wonder what caused that?
JimB
April 9, 2009 3:33 am
Regarding the hand warmers on the sensor:
“The hand warmers are presumably used after the instrument is recovered to assist in draining out any residual water before the instrument is stored.”
At first thought, “maybe”. But think about this…you take a sensor that’s in water that’s roughly .5C, so it’s already close to freezing, and you pull it out of the ice into air that’s at -40C? The only “hand warmer” I can think of that would prevent any residual water from freezing would be a torch, and only if you could get it lit at that temp.
This gets more hokey by the minute.
For some reason the whole thing makes me think of Barney and his one bullet back in Mayberry.
JimB
BrianMcL
April 9, 2009 3:39 am
Try this from the website as of 12.30pm BST:
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data is transmitted on a delayed basis; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time. The current intention is to compress this data and relay it back to the UK at the end of each and every day.
Data obviously varies according to the activity conducted by each team member at certain times of the day. The team typically drag their sledges for 75 minutes and then take a 15 minute break, and as a trio they will usually complete six or seven such sessions each day. As such, their breathing rates, heart rates and core body temperature will be high during the day, and lower during the evening, once they cease skiing.
Occasionally, however, we may see data that does not seem to fit this pattern perfectly. Sometimes this may be due to an ill-fitting monitor (which can work itself loose over a 9-10 hour sledging day) and this can produce readings that are not 100% accurate. At other times, there may be a physiological explanation. As an example, Pen has a naturally low heart rate when compared to many individuals, which incidentally makes him well suited to long distance polar travel.
Readings may also occasionally drop to zero. This can happen if a unit is removed, so that its battery can be replaced, or, in the case of core temperature, if one transmitter pill works its way out of the body’s digestive system and another pill is not immediately swallowed. As such, all of the readings above are best viewed as being indicative of how the human body performs in subzero temperatures. Given that the team are not performing in laboratory conditions, however, some erroneous data should occasionally be expected.
The data produced by the Equivital System is provided for general information only and is not intended for medical analysis within the scope of the Catlin Arctic Survey. As such, it will be analysed for general research purposes only and will not be viewed or utilised as a tool for the diagnosis or identification of the medical condition of the expedition team. This has been agreed by all members of the expedition team.”
At least we know that their support team are fans of WUWT.
Ared
April 9, 2009 3:44 am
BTW, they seem to have turned off the system in response to our inquiries:
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.”
Imran
April 9, 2009 3:47 am
There is a rumour that they are all in a parking lot in Arizona ……..
B Kerr
April 9, 2009 3:47 am
I was under the impression that the biotelemetry was live from the ice and we could see how they were getting on.
“The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data is transmitted on a delayed basis; it is not a live feed.”
“As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time. The current intention is to compress this data and relay it back to the UK at the end of each and every day.”
I take it that from this statement the real-time biotelemetry web page is no longer needed as the data will be received in one batch at the end of the day.
Wish they had explained that at the start.
Christopher Wood
April 9, 2009 3:49 am
I lived in Cologne, (Koln), West Germany in the mid 1960,s and synchronised lights were installed on many of the major roads. I have often wondered why, with modern electronics they were not used in the UK. Now we know! so we use more fuel and the government get more tax! brilliant.
Good catch. The web site now displays zeros for all measurements and there is a statement (in small print — gotta love it):
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
The BBC now reports that the ice measuring equipment isn’t working either: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
it has emerged that British explorers studying the Arctic are struggling with a series of technical problems.
A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.
The radar system, known as Sprite, is dragged behind the sledge of expedition leader Pen Hadow and is meant to gather data about the ice for transmission via satellite to researchers.
But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed.
So with the team’s early progress anyway hampered by the weather, the Sprite only gathered data over a total period of seven hours of trekking in the expedition’s first 18 days.
A resupply flight, which landed last month, collected the device for repairs back in the UK, and that work is now complete.
But support staff are still having trouble accessing the ice data stored inside it.
The broken SeaCat device was extracted on the first resupply flight and a replacement is due to be delivered in a fortnight’s time.
….
BrianMcL
April 9, 2009 3:53 am
And according to the BBC “London, we have a problem” their SPRITE radar isn’t working either. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
To recap then:
1) The ice penetrating radar doesn’t work;
2) NASA have published satellite ice thickness data anyway;
3) They’ve got hypothermia and frostbite;
4) The provenance of the biotelemetary data is unreliable.
Do they really need any more reasons to come back home?
F Rasmin
April 9, 2009 3:53 am
In all likelihood, the Catlin photos are from the Ithaca Ice works movie set at Pinewood Studios UK! For some different scenes, they could be from one of the largest cold storage room in the UK namely the Esca Food Solutions operation in Scunthorpe, where all McDonald’s burgers are produced! Next time pictures of the Catlin group are shown, see if any of them are munching a freshly cooked still steaming big whoppa! (with fries).
Jeff Alberts
April 9, 2009 3:56 am
Graeme Rodaughan (17:22:04) :
Perhaps we could mount a 2 week Sceptics expedition to Bali to check if Global warming was having an impact on the serving temperature of Beer?
It would be as useful.
I’d rather do a study of bikini size as it relates to the color of the sand on the beach.
Malcolm
April 9, 2009 3:58 am
Arctic team: ‘London, we have a problem’ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
It would appear that the Catlin Artic Survey have been beset with problems from the outset but have delibrately kept quiet about it till today.
I wonder why that was?
The notion that CAT has actually been collecting any meaningful data has now been knocked on the head.
CAT have been outed, if they are not bringing home the science then you cannot call this a survey. It is a PR exercise in stupidty.
All I can say is WOW! As a fan of “science” , although not qualified to talk in depth about the minutiae of this topic, I am not surprised at the deception involved. These people will stop at nothing to make a grab for power (and my wallet). That they aren’t smart enough to do it well also doesn’t surprise me.
MartinGAtkins
April 9, 2009 4:07 am
Data obviously varies according to the activity conducted by each team member at certain times of the day. The team typically drag their sledges for 75 minutes and then take a 15 minute break, and as a trio they will usually complete six or seven such sessions each day. As such, their breathing rates, heart rates and core body temperature will be high during the day, and lower during the evening, once they cease skiing.
How kind of them to tell us how they are going to rig the data to make it look like they are dragging sledges for 75 minutes and then resting for 15. Throw in a period of sleep temperatures and randomize it all. Next get some poor underling in the office to make sure it never develops a regular pattern and with any luck no one will notice what a bunch of phonies they are. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
Yea, I can imagine they would be desperate to have it fixed before anyone else can get wind of their duplicity.
BarryW
April 9, 2009 4:09 am
The most likely, IMO, is that they had grandiose plans for providing live data and had set up the web site with that in mind but never got the hookup working. Then, though lack of diligence or because they didn’t want to admit the failure, they left that part of the website up.
But then again maybe this is how they’re actually doing it:
Scott
Jeff Alberts
April 9, 2009 4:09 am
Mike Bryant (18:49:19) :
Of course, by then it will be obvious to everyone how the melt season progressed. How will they spin the anecdata if the melt is the about the same or less than 2008? How will they spin a reversal of the trend?
Look at Mikey, using the new word! The Mikinator! Mike-a-tollah…
Jeff,
hehehe… Doncha love it?! I wondered if anyone would notice…
The Mikinator
Steve
April 9, 2009 4:18 am
That biometrie data has suddenly gone blank. Only the hearts keep beating (wanna bet that’ll be the title to the theme song to the TV special, sung by the bonnie prince himself?)
Seems to indicate a 24 hour graph is now available but I can’t click through. http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
James P
April 9, 2009 4:19 am
I hope the medics supervising this know that the information is false. I mean, you wouldn’t want them basing decisions on it, would you?
I don’t want to sound macabre, but I won’t be wholly surprised if they are all found frozen to the spot while the ‘live’ data ticks merrily away in the background…
MC
April 9, 2009 4:19 am
Based on everything I’ve read here, I would say the group has been pulled from the Arctic. This would have been done a while back when we first learned of their declining condition. More than likely the false data and other information was hurriedly put together to salvage what otherwise would have been a disaster.
Now you guys have uncovered the coverup and its going to be worse than if they had first told the truth in the first place. I can assure you this episode when presented to some credible media will work to discredit the AGW movement.
alano
April 9, 2009 4:20 am
They seem to be aware of a problem, page now says..
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.”
Unfortunately we now have zero confidence in any further data they publish. Bet they will say it’s now all correct with nary a mention of WUWT.
Steve
April 9, 2009 4:24 am
Didn’t see this at first glance:
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
To hazard a guess the Catlin crew are reading Watt’s Up and then dashing back to fix the website
That BBC stories says previous expeditions ecountered much thicker ice. Any clue as to who/when/where that might have been?
Graeme Rodaughan
April 9, 2009 4:25 am
Jeff Alberts (03:56:48) :
…
I’d rather do a study of bikini size as it relates to the color of the sand on the beach.
Jeff – Give the sceptic in the black hat a cigar – there are obviously many ways to serve the interests of good science…
G
Mark Wagner
April 9, 2009 4:32 am
They could at least have gone to the effort of blasting the same fake number(s) to open clients at the same time. Tsk tsk, sloppy sloppy.
Hey! These are catastrophic AGW proponents. YOU WEREN’T SUPPOSED TO CHECK THEIR NUMBERS! Facts are irrelevant. It is what the bureau of newspeak says it is.
Cassanders
April 9, 2009 4:41 am
Re CTD.
I am fairly familiar with these instruments (I use one occationally, but from another manufacturer). The hand warmer is probably just an add-on to avoid ice-jamming of the unit, possibly before, and after deployment.
When lowered into the water, I am confident the heating is switched off, and the entire unit will asjust to ambient temperature fairly rapidly. There is usually a reccomended speed for lowering and raising the unit.
BTW, the unit I employ, logs oxygen, Clorophyll-a, temperature, salinity and pressure both when descending and ascending.
Re Hypothermia.
The core temperature should normally(obviously) be well above the surface (skin) temperature. As a student way back when, I was a guinea pig in a rather large (diving) hypothermia experiment. If/when core tempreature was 35.5 C, we were immediately taken out of the experiment. I suspect this core temperature over prolonged periods is quite dangerous. At 35 C both physical and intellectual capabilities are significantly impaired.
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
Ryan C
April 9, 2009 4:44 am
I don’t understand the point of this expedition or the point of this discussion?
All that I can piece together is that these guys are in the arctic taking ice thickness and temperature measurements to see how the ice is behaving this spring. I am having a hard time figuring out what this has to do with c02 or globull warming? Even if there is NO ICE up there, how can they nail it down to c02 as the culprit? Evidence?
RexAlan
April 9, 2009 4:45 am
extremly suspect1
George M
April 9, 2009 4:48 am
The Englishman (03:53:01) and others provided a BBC link which contained:
“But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed. ”
As previously pointed out on WUWT, only living things respond to wind chill. “Technology” only sees the actual -40°, WHICH, PRESUMABLY, IT WAS DESIGNED FOR. OR NOT.
Another red herring from the media.
Carter
April 9, 2009 5:02 am
Just an idea for you stats loving Climate Audit types. Apparently there’s a statistical analysis that can be performed to determine if a data set has been made up? Has anybody thought to run these numbers to determine if they were ever actual biometric data, or if someone came up with the sequences out of thin air?
Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 5:02 am
London We Have A Problem… WUWT figured out what we were about! Can you please publish this article to help cover our tracks? Please???
Thanks,
Prince, et al
jimbob
April 9, 2009 5:03 am
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
david shukman has just been told that there are major technical problems with their equipment.
the only thing which is working it seems is the big heath robinson corkscrew type thing which tells them that “the ice is much thinner than it used to be.”
no mention of fabricated websites, of course.
I was going to capture a full IP trace (which includes UDP and TCP, and all the protocols that use them) while visiting http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx. However, that seems moot given that things are disabled. Hmm, claim to be disabled (e.g. Cryosphere disabling 2009’s ice cap comparisions even though all they changed was the selection form people fill in).
So, I did take a look at Pen’s data (I have flashblock installed, the swf fetch and execution only happens when I click on the display area). The only thing that happened was to “GET /flash/biotelemetry.swf”. Execution didn’t access any other site, so they must have changed the swf or a cookie or something to not access indigopapa.com.
I’ll check again when they reenable it. If they reenable it. Hah – they’re never going to reenable it.
If Catlin Arctic Survey is fraudulent about this, I’ve lost all confidence in anything they have said or will say. I’m tempted to send a note to the Catlin Group pointing out that their name is now associated with minor fraud.
I notice the DNS name “catlinfraud.com” is available. 🙂
B Kerr
April 9, 2009 5:08 am
pkatt (23:13:17) :
“you know of course Pen Hadow has pulled this crap before:” http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html
This is also Update 4 above.
If you have not checked this out then make sure you have a look at the link.
Wow!!
“The British explorer Pen Hadow was rescued by plane from the North Pole yesterday – and came under immediate criticism from the emergency team “for risking lives” by the “stupid” decision to launch his Arctic mission when the pack ice was melting with the onset of spring.”
“Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk.”
Yes this is the same Kenn Borek Air which are flying in the re-supplies.
How many more days are the Catlin three due to spend on the ice?
Will Kenn Borek fly in after 30th April to save him again?
“Mr Hadow subsisted on half-rations of nuts, chocolate and dried fruit.”
And Pen had the cheek to talk about poor Martin’s favourite snack; yes his bird food.
You know you could not write this.
Good one PKatt.
Roger Knights
April 9, 2009 5:23 am
MC (04:19:40) wrote: “Based on everything I’ve read here, I would say the group has been pulled from the Arctic. This would have been done a while back when we first learned of their declining condition. More than likely the false data and other information was hurriedly put together to salvage what otherwise would have been a disaster.”
Wow! “Now you guys have uncovered the coverup and its going to be worse than if they had first told the truth in the first place. I can assure you this episode when presented to some credible media will work to discredit the AGW movement.”
Tipping point?
Magnus
April 9, 2009 5:30 am
JimB (03:21:11) :“The stated goals were to show how BAD global warming REALLY IS. Of course it’s biased and has been from Day 1.”
I agree. (It’s about the AGW = politics. Prince Charles is officially behind this. WWF, who besides the adopt polar bear fraud is highly political, as top sponsor, and 4 organizations who benifit from Cap and Trade also sponsors.) In the online interview here i did this transcript of Pen Hadows answer a question (I left out some words I didn’t recognized): “- Can you try and tell us why the survey is so important and indeed so urgent that you are undertaken at the moment?
– Well the sea ice around the north pole region […] some scientists are saying that this could become a seasonal feature only rather than a year around feature in less than 4 years from now. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its last report was suggesting 50 to 100 years, but in fact […] as scientists know it dates nearer to 2020, 2030. So we seem to be losing one of our planets defining surface glaciers, and the implications of a seasonal loss will affect almost everywhere on the planet, and almost everyone. There will be weather changes, wind changes, temperature changes, and rainfall changes largely unpredictable at this stage, given us the level of science available to us, and of course the global sea level rise will be accelerated as the protecting heat shield […] is lost …”
–
Gloom and doom despite there was ice free Arctic sea 6000 to 7000 years ago during the human and nature friendly holocene optimum: NGU
BTW, I think Pen’s answer “There will be weather changes, wind changes, temperature changes, and rainfall changes largely unpredictable at this stage, given us the level of science available to us” can be compared with this words from Brother Enim in Monty Pyton’s The End of the World: “- Certainly there will be a mighty wind, if the word of God is anything to go by.
Tragedies has its funny stuff. :/
Michael
April 9, 2009 5:31 am
And now it says:
“Biotelemetry – Data for March 8th 2009
Please note the above data was collected over a 12 hour period on March 8th. This gives us a fair representation of how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data above is a representation of what the team have gone through on a particular day; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time.”
Alan the Brit
April 9, 2009 5:31 am
I say chaps, if you really are going to Bali to study the temperature effects on beer, &/or study bikini size relative to colour of sand on the beach, I have to ask, “can I come too, I’ll buy the first round!”
Slightly OT, but seriously, has anybody heard any news about yet more Ice Tour boat trips into the Arctic to see the ice before it all melts, getting stuck in ice that shouldn’t be there according to the alarmists? e.g. the Kapitan Kolebnikov (not sure of the spelling) around this time last year?
Ryan C
April 9, 2009 5:33 am
Nobody can tell me what this experiment has to do with c02?
I just sent this:
To: …catlin.com
cc: …wermenh.com
Subject: Please direct this to sponsors of Catlin Arctic Survey
–text follows this line–
Folks at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/08/catlin-ice-survey-website-recycles-biotelemetry-data
have discovered that the Survey’s http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx is not only providing
data that isn’t live, but was repeating a short segment of data logged from
who-knows-where and could be pure fiction. I believe some of that false data was alarming enough so readers referred it to you suggesting that the survey team be evacuated for their own safety.
While this certainly doesn’t reach the level of criminal fraud, lending your
name to an organization that lies about simple data like this suggests that I
should believe nothing they have said or will say.
It’s probably too late to withdraw support or revoke permission to use your
name, so I suggest you forward a copy of your corporate ethics manual to the
Survey and demand they adopt the relevant parts. I’d highlight a few
sections, e.g. one on lying to clients.
There are also reports that their radar broke and was flown home and back with
the resupply flights, there’s no mention of that on Catlin’s web site even
though they made a big thing about it being the prime data acquistion
experiment. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm .
This is not how good science is supposed to work!
-Eric Werme
Douglas DC
April 9, 2009 5:35 am
Hadow’s record of a really stupid mistake,is not a confidence builder.He’s no
Admunsen.Again-get them out…
I now believe after reading the posts and linking to the BBC Videos that this whole trip is a staged hoax. I watched the video and you clearly see bugs flying around in the lights. The guy is wearing a light jacket with no gloves in -30 Deg C! No way! Light snow falls off of the ice blocks; no way it’s all frozen sea water and the Arctic is a virtual desert with no precipitation. It’s too cold for gods sake to snow.
Lucy, Somebody has some spain’n to do.
John W.
April 9, 2009 5:53 am
Graeme Rodaughan (17:22:04) :
Perhaps we could mount a 2 week Sceptics expedition to Bali to check if Global warming was having an impact on the serving temperature of Beer?
It would be as useful.
I disagree. It would be far more useful.
Can I join?
RexAlan
April 9, 2009 5:54 am
From The BBC: Thursday, 9 April 2009 11:59 UK http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
“The radar system, known as Sprite, is dragged behind the sledge of expedition leader Pen Hadow and is meant to gather data about the ice for transmission via satellite to researchers.
But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed:”.
Let me get this right now.
Global warming at -70c caused the equipment to fail.
Mmmmmm!
Steve
April 9, 2009 6:01 am
Something very wrong here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
Money quote
“The drillings have revealed a typical ice thickness of between 1.5 – 2 metres which is far thinner than a previous generation of explorers encountered. ”
The Catlin site runs a quote from Kwok saying the jolly will provide an unprecedented set of data
Two questions: 1) what’s ‘unprecedented’ if its been done by previous generations; 2) show me the data collected by previous generations that you are comparing with.
Oh and 220m thick ice shelves melt in 35 days
B Kerr
April 9, 2009 6:03 am
Pen Haddow’s speaker profile. http://www.tmcentertainment.co.uk/speaker-index.html?speakerid=128
“In May 2003, Pen was catapulted to international fame when he became the first person in history to sledge alone from Canada to the North Geographic Pole without any outside help.”
No mention of being air lifted off of the ice when he was going short on nuts, and dried fruit.
Being air lifted off not considered as outside help?
When you get to the top of a mountain you are half way there!!
MartinGAtkins
April 9, 2009 6:05 am
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation. The data produced by the Equivital System
The Sultans of spin.
Pamela Gray
April 9, 2009 6:06 am
Let’s see. Ice measures were taken and compared to historical ice measures. Conclusion: The ice is thinner. But…it…isn’t…the…same…ice. And it wasn’t measured in the same place, and probably not on the same day, month, oceanic oscillation, or weather system conditions. Plus the ice that was historically measured is gone. Melted. No! Really! It went away less than 10 years later and probably less than 5 years later after it was first born. All Arctic ice melts within a few years. There is no ancient ice in the Arctic like there is on Greenland. Cores of Arctic ice reveals baby ice. Everywhere you drill. Relatively speaking. So there is no control group. None. This is just the worst designed scientific study I have ever come across. 5th graders can design a better study than this. Ice thickness is one of the noisiest data streams there is. And because of that, much more care has to be taken when designing a comparative study.
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 6:08 am
Addendum to my post: For these guys to be gone from their homes this long and if they are staging this then I would bet you could sit in front of their house and see them come and go. An investigative journalist could figure this out in a minute if they were staging this. This would be like the insurance companies following the guy on crutches that was faking an injury for a big monitary claim but was causght playing basketball or something. These guys need to be exposed!
For one reason why they would stage this hoax would be to save money. An expedition like this would cost a bunch. I also question the timing of it especially since Mr Hawdow went this late before. They picked this late date thinking that they would get video of melting ice which is what they want to show to the world. ie: the ice cap is melting. Wrong! It’s (Ice flow) not melting it’s moving with the underlieing current just like it always has and into the North Atlantic.
An earlier comment at 20:48:16 showed the Arctic Bouy Program drift patterns and temperature data. Man it’s cold up their. http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_map.html
This is kind of fun when you catch an elaborate hoax. I just hope it gets into the media but you probably know the answer to that.
Alan the Brit (05:31:55) :
I say chaps, if you really are going to Bali to study the temperature effects on beer, &/or study bikini size relative to colour of sand on the beach, I have to ask, “can I come too, I’ll buy the first round!”
We thought you were driving! I call shotgun!
Ryan C (05:33:36) :
Nobody can tell me what this experiment has to do with c02?
It’s studying an effect without a cause.
Greg McCall
April 9, 2009 6:25 am
The Biotelemetry data appears to be “operational” again.
From the website: Biotelemetry – Data for March 8th 2009
Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 6:28 am
From here: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090406132602.htm
“First-year sea ice usually reaches 6 feet in thickness,”
The Catlin Ex perdition says that 95% of the ice measurements have been between 1.5 and 2 meters thick, or 4.92′ to 6.56’…
Looks about like the “usual” thickness to me. Of course, those may be the pre experdition measurements…
Mike
Jeff Alberts
April 9, 2009 6:31 am
Jack Green (05:41:25) :
I now believe after reading the posts and linking to the BBC Videos that this whole trip is a staged hoax. I watched the video and you clearly see bugs flying around in the lights. The guy is wearing a light jacket with no gloves in -30 Deg C! No way! Light snow falls off of the ice blocks; no way it’s all frozen sea water and the Arctic is a virtual desert with no precipitation. It’s too cold for gods sake to snow.
It’s not really possible, on this planet, to be too cold to snow.
Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 6:35 am
[snip – deleted, off color]
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 6:37 am
If the air cools to truly frigid Arctic temperatures such as -40 C and below then the moisture capacity of the air will be so low that likely not much snow can occur. Only at these extremely low temperatures is the phrase “it is too cold to snow” fairly valid. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/222/
So they are risking their lives to gather lots and lots of utterly unreliable data from equipment that keeps malfunctioning. Yet I will bet that what data they do recover (no matter how dubious and unreliable), will still be exclaimed by the BBC et al as definitive proof of further continuing Arctic melt. Despite the fact that they will have NO other comparable data with which to compare it to.
Malcolm
April 9, 2009 6:41 am
The BIG problem for the Catlin Artic Survey is that they delibrately withheld all this information from the public despite the fact that this expedition is very much an exercise in public science.
Who took that decision?
They compounded that problem by foolishly recycling old biometric data as new daily updated data.
Who made that decision?
If this is how proponents of AGW do science then everyone has a right to be sceptical about this expedition.
Richard M
April 9, 2009 6:43 am
Bensford’s Law is the statistical process to uncovered fake data. Has anyone tried this on the repeating data or is the data too narrow to apply this technique?
I noted in the 2003 article it stated no one should venture on arctic sea ice after April 30th. It seems this mission was designed to do exactly that. Interesting.
Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 6:46 am
Pen said that he is such an old hand at Arctic exploration that the ice drill is really redundant… “By tapping on the ice with this hammer I can get the ice thickness data to within .02mm just by listening to the sound it makes. Why even bother with the ice drill? Do you know how long it takes to drill a 6′ deep hole in the ice?”
NOT REALLY… I’m only kidding…
Sorry for off color comment…
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 6:54 am
I just visited their site and tried to watch the videos. It’s not video it’s only audio. Somebody needs to find their old pictures on the internet and compare them to these on the current Catlin web page to see if they are just using stock photos and playing audio recorded in their garage. The plot thickens. Liars usually have to lie more to cover for their previous lies.
Cathy
April 9, 2009 6:55 am
Hmmmm.
Read the BBC’s “London, We Have a Problem”.
Now tell me.
How odd is it that in describing the nature of the “problem” . . .
they never ONCE use the word “COLD” ?
So focused are they on the WARMING and ICE THICKNESS ( 5 references)
that the “problem” of COLD is never mentioned.
Yeah, they’ve got a problem alright.
Hmmm. Regarding the fact that Pen had to be extracted from the North Pole in 2003, how are we supposed to reconcile this statement from the Catlin Arctic Survey site:
“The team will be travelling on foot, hauling sledges from 81°N 130°W, across 1,000-km of disintegrating and shifting sea ice, for around 100 days…”
(100 days would mean pick up around June 10th !!!)
with this one, by Steve Penikett of Kenn Borek Air, from the Independent’s report on the 2003 ‘extraction’ :
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April…”
I interpret this to mean that the team has literally planned to fail. Basically they have 21 more days on the ice.
One more thing I keep wanting to mention. In his posts Martin seems to think that the journey will become easier as the temperatures warm up. In fact the reverse is true. As leads open up and the ice shifts more their progress is actually going to slow down.
J. Peden
April 9, 2009 7:00 am
I blame Anthony Watts, enc., for this probable hoax, which was apparently specifically designed to counter their work in regard to actually checking the sitings of surface temperature sensors, by showing in contrast the fantastically heroic measures AGW Climate Scientists make in order to conduct their “science”. It’s humbling.
Glen Blackburn
April 9, 2009 7:02 am
Think of the children growing up and what these ” scientists” are teaching them. The damage that AGW scientists are doing is beyond measure!
Anthony, I love your site and read it daily hope to someday learn enough to contribute.
Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 7:10 am
The weather in the Arctic is so bad that the moisture in their breath is uhhhh… solidifying, ya solidifying, and falling onto their tongues before it makes it past their teeth. Ya that’s the ticket. This is the reason that the breath was not visible in the videos.
Thank you.
Please note that the unapproved words “cold” and “ice” were NOT used in the creation of this comment.
I sent a mail to the expeditions press officer asking:
Is it true that the presented data do come from a static file and do not represent the actual physical condition of the team on the ice?
If that is indeed the case, can you convince us that other data from this expedition *do* respresent what they are suggested to do?
and also asked about the two videos where no breath can be seen and a speaker does not wear gloves.
This was the answer:
Dear Theo,
You will see that the biometric information on http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com has been amended to accurately state what page visitors are looking at.
The Ice Team’s scientific data, when published, is/will be actual readings taken on their survey. No question.
As for the video…. You are wrong to think the videos are strange. They were, in fact, both recorded by the team on the ice and uplifted on the first re-supply flight
Rod
mojo
April 9, 2009 7:19 am
Even people who do foolish things do not deserve to die.
Since when? Ever hear the phrase “Hold my beer and watch THIS!” ?
“Stupidity is not a sin, the victim can’t help being stupid. But stupidity is the only universal capital crime: the sentence is death, there is no appeal, and execution is carried out automatically and without pity.”
— Robert A. Heinlein
AnonyMoose
April 9, 2009 7:36 am
The BBC story mentions “Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.” That’s the device shown in a photo with the hand-warmer fastened to it. They don’t say that the warmer was probably how they planned to warm the battery up enough for it to (briefly) work. Something didn’t work.
Also notice that the BBC article mentions that on Wednesday the original ice radar sled was delivered to the expedition along with the communications system. I think the data uplink device was inside the radar sled, which was taken away for repair a month ago. No wonder there isn’t live data on the web site.
The BBC article also mentions that broken cables crippled the radar device. Do you suppose the cables which broke are those shown in the photo — cables connecting the radar sled to the equipment sled? In intense cold, ordinary cables won’t be flexible.
B Kerr
April 9, 2009 7:38 am
“”Jeff Alberts (06:21:57) :
Alan the Brit (05:31:55) :
I say chaps, if you really are going to Bali to study the temperature effects on beer, &/or study bikini size relative to colour of sand on the beach, I have to ask, “can I come too, I’ll buy the first round!”
We thought you were driving! I call shotgun!””
Hang on there chaps, studying the effects of beer and driving!!!
(Alan the Brit, like me, we are pre-programmed to drive on the wrong side of the road, or do we drive on the left side of the road, which is right?)
No no no, do not like the sound of that, too dangerous, rather go on a jolly romp to the North Pole.
Why not try something else: http://www.worldwildlife.org/travel/item8044.html
Now chaps we could meet up somewhere warm, with lots of cold beer.
Hopefully, these trips are being subsidised by people who are sponsoring Polar Bears. We can sit back enjoy the sun and let everyone PANDA to our needs.
Gerald Machnee
April 9, 2009 7:44 am
RE: RexAlan (05:54:29) :
From The BBC: Thursday, 9 April 2009 11:59 UK http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
“The radar system, known as Sprite, is dragged behind the sledge of expedition leader Pen Hadow and is meant to gather data about the ice for transmission via satellite to researchers.
But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed:”.
If the temperature is minus 50, it cannot drop any lower, no matter how strong the wind is. An object will cool to minus 50 more rapidly. So the minus 70 is a red herring in that respect. It does mean humans will feel colder as they are losing heat more rapidly and appropriate clothing is required. In Canada we used a cooling rate of watts per square metre until about 2001. Instead of correcting the rate in the problem area, a new system was adopted using temperatures. This makes more headlines when you can report windchill to low levels.
crosspatch (20:24:01) :
completely off topic (but hey, we never get an “open” thread around here 🙂
Has NASA ever done this:
Take a picture of a place, say the Orion Nebula, and six months later take another picture of the same spot, and then combine them as a stereoscopic image to make basically a 3D picture of how it would look if your eyes were as far apart as the orbit of Earth?
The Orion Nebula (also known as M42) is 1500 light years distant. The Earth’s orbit is far too small to provide any parallax effect. I have imaged it at different times http://arnholm.org/astro/deepsky/m42/
I once cooperated with another imager in Canada, we used the Scandinavia-Canada baseline to try to make a 3D anaglyph image of the Copernicus crater on the Moon using identical telescopes. The image is in the Moon section on my website. It shows a 3D effect, but it is really an illusion caused by slight different imaging times. The crater walls are too low compared to the distance to the Moon.
Regarding the topic of this thread, I think the whole story is quite sad. The Catlin survey expedition appears totally discredited wrt. providing any real information (why am I not surprised?). How could they think they could get away with such manipulation?
The BBC hasn’t been very good at reporting the history of these explorers. How did they suddenly get information about some problems with the expedition, and what else is the BBC overlooking?
I respected the BBC. A while ago.
L Ross
April 9, 2009 7:50 am
“The first thing to note is that the data above is a representation of what the team have gone through on a particular day; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time.”
Oh, ok… that makes it alright then.
I think it would have been wise as a “project team” to have explored the possibility of being honest.
Just a thought.
Brian Johnson
April 9, 2009 7:52 am
Also I thought ‘wind chill’ was only relevant to living bodies. -40ºC is the same in still air or in a wind of 30 knots to a piece of malfunctioning metallic/plastic junk. Or am I going to have to use my Easter of four nails, a hammer and two planks and nail me to a cross!
Dear Lubos… First, only Pen Hadow has these low temperatures. His companions’ temperature is reported as being 4 deg C higher. Second, the page pretends to measure both surface temperature and the internal temperature, as two different quantities for each person. Third, all the numbers are generated according to a standard regular prescription.
You’re right, and it makes the thing more suspicious. 33°C is reported like Hadow’s internal temperature, which places this man at a margin of collapse by hypothermia. A drop of corporal temperature down to 35 °C is considered an emergency and it will lead to death if it is not treated immediately. Ann and Martin display normal internal temperatures, although their cardiac frequencies are excessively high. Heart beats faster when the body is under conditions of stress, i.e. when the body requires of abundant oxygenation or when the body must eliminate excess of heat from its interior.
Organizing this data:
Pen is suffering a severe hypothermia which could mean he’s already dead. No other explanation.
Ann is eliminating a high load of heat from her body through an unusual cardiac frequency which would lead her to death at some moments (160 b x ‘). Besides, Ann is breathing unusually. Normal breath frequency is 12-20 breaths per minute; her ventilation rate is 33 Hz per minute, which indicates she’s suffering a very serious respiratory illness (emphysema, for example).
Possible explanations:
1. She got a cold, pneumonia or any other respiratory illness.
2. She’s doing a kind of physical activity which could lead her to death.
3. She’s not in the Arctic, but in another warm location.
Martin is also eliminating a high amount of heat from his inner tissues, so there are three possible explanations:
1. He could be resting close to a powerful heat radiator since his breathing rate is almost normal.
2. He’s doing something which makes his heart beats hastily, but maintains his breath rate normal (nonsense hypothesis).
3. He is not in the Arctic (more plausible hypothesis).
It seems a hoax.
Jack Wedel
April 9, 2009 8:01 am
I’m intrigued by the ability of the team to drill hundreds of holes by hand in 1.5 – 2 m. of ice. My many years of experience in cutting holes in Arctic Canada’s fresh-water ice (with powered augers in the more recent years) suggest that these guys are super beings. Of a more technical nature, just what are the specs for their drill? Does anyone know? What diameter hole does it cut, and what are the dimensions of the instrument package they lower through it? The experience of northern hydrologists is that underwater sampling needs to cope with rime-ice buildup on the walls of the hole in the ice. In 5 – 10 minutes, an 8 inch diameter hole at -40 will grow more than an inch of ice on the wall. To make deep-water mm’ts through a small hole is impossible.
Ray
April 9, 2009 8:05 am
“how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.”
And I thought it was the “stupid” cold… silly me!
[snip]
Snip? Wow – my first snip. I suppose it deserved to be snipped.
Okay, the .swf file that displayed the zeroes was created today at 1045, is 132848 bytes long and doesn’t contact anyone.
The new .swf file was created at 1532, is 136426 bytes long and
reads XML data from http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=pen . You can read that with a browser, but it’s just raw data like:
<?xml version=”1.0″ encoding=”UTF-8″ ?><stats>.<pen>..<ecg max=”1459″ data=”910,913,939,951,935,885, …
That file has sections for different sensors named ecg, coretemp, skintemp, beltbr, which match the four streams of data displayed on the web page.
BTW, did anyone really think the data stream was live in the first place? the web site makes if clear data was going back via Satellite phone, it’s not like the Polar Bears are running a Wifi net up there for visitors. I had assumed it was canned, but did think it was data from the last upload. Perhaps it is, though I’m not sure we can believe Catlin’s claim that it’s March 8 data. It could have been from test walks before starting the real trek.
One thing that’s answered – I was wondering why the resupply plane is claimed to have landed. Wouldn’t it be much safer to fly to some lat/long, drop a pallet with a parachute and go back to Resolute Bay? Since they had to pick up the radar unit, that would require the first resupply flight to land. So, why did the second resupply flight land?
jorgekafkazar
April 9, 2009 8:10 am
Quote from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm “Simon Harris-Ward, Director of Operations for Catlin Arctic survey told the BBC: “Given the very extreme conditions they are operating in during the Arctic winter we were always going to face potential difficulties with the array of advanced technology despite our robust testing programme.
Robust? Hahahahahahahaha! We all know what that means. “We have been cautious…”
Is that the British word for ‘evasive?’ “about making any statement about SPRITE simply because of a combination of factors. First, an uncertainty about the exact nature of the problem…
This was special gear that Pen Hadus designed, wasn’t it? So why don’t they know what’s wrong with it? Oh, right; they’re clueless. and second, the inevitable delays in assessing data which had to be extracted on our re-supply flights before it could be analysed.”
And before they told the public that their most important gear wasn’t really functional. So, what possible reason could they have not to announce the failure of the SHprITE in the first place? To continue the charade?
hengav
April 9, 2009 8:15 am
I while back there was some discussion on the Catlin site about a “record day” for ice core drilling near the first re-supply site where Pen stated he had drilled 48 cores. A satellite image was presented March 17th. See: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Difficult_decisions_
The airstrip has a noted thickness of 1.06m – I love the accuracy. But we also know that the radar system was non-operational from the BBC report, therefore my assumption is that much of Pen’s work was done around the map area, in the middle of a freeze/refreeze area. One could hardly call the airstrip first year ice as it was more like “last months”. So onto more statisitcs. The BBC articel goes on to state:
“With 102 holes drilled so far, hundreds of measurements have been made of ice thickness and snow cover over the 243km covered so far. ”
With 48 of the 102 measurements made most likely within the Radarsat image (that’s 48@1.06m), what can we learn about average thickness? If thier estimate of 1.5 to 2m meters is the average then the other half of the measurements must be 2 to 2.5m. What kind of independant information can we use to verify this? The international Arctic Buoy program site helps out. http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_northpole.html
You can see the drift and the buoy id’s. One examply bouy that is along the path is 30294. It has a 2009 max ice thickness of 292 cm. Specific information found here: http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2008D.htm
Magnus
April 9, 2009 8:17 am
Now the three team members’ biotelemetry data which is (not) supposed for 8 of March is presented. It repeat the same pattern as the figures above.
So they happen to have the same data 8 of March as 2nd of March? And they are constantly swapped to previous time when any webb surfer press the reload buttom! Poor them.
This should really be exposed in the media!
jorgekafkazar
April 9, 2009 8:22 am
Jack Green (06:54:01) said: “I just visited their site and tried to watch the videos. It’s not video it’s only audio…”
Oh, I’m sure plenty of videos will be available…: http://therightaddress.co.uk/resources/archive_newsletter/january_2007.pdf “Pen has seen for himself the indicators of climate change: polar bears and other Arctic wildlife where they
shouldn’t be; polluted atmospheric hazes where once the horizons were pristine, and he relates his observations with passion and science, illustrating his talk with images and dramatic film footage that he has taken himself.”
…from his previous trip(s).
Jeff Alberts
April 9, 2009 8:25 am
Jack Green (06:37:04) :
If the air cools to truly frigid Arctic temperatures such as -40 C and below then the moisture capacity of the air will be so low that likely not much snow can occur. Only at these extremely low temperatures is the phrase “it is too cold to snow” fairly valid. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/222/
I read the same site when responding the first time. “Fairly valid” does not mean completely valid or even mostly valid. My response still stands, on this planet it cannot be too cold to snow (unless something REALLY drastic happens, in which case we’re all dead anyway).
Andrew P.
April 9, 2009 8:43 am
I had a root about their website and came across this text when I clicked on the Pickup point (aka the North Pole) in their GoogleEarth file:
Pick-up Point
Location 90°N
The Ice Team have all reached the North Pole before, so this is not about reaching the Pole but rather about securing relevant scientific data.
The choice of route has been dictated by the need to obtain the maximum amount of data possible along a scientifically relevant transect. The North Geographic Pole was the natural end point, bearing in mind a tight weather window of about three months.
When the Ice Team are picked up they will have spent approximately 100 days on the ice, trekked across 1200km of sea ice, will have spent around 150 hours swimming across open leads of water and will have consumed over 500,000 calories each.
The complete high-resolution transect (stored on SPRITE, the ice penetrating radar) of the ice will be come available after the end of expedition. These unique findings will be delivered to our global partner (WWF International), who will then present them at the UN Climate Change Conference at Copenhagen in December 2009. It is hoped that this data will help in attempts to produce a binding agreement in the UN’s new climate Change Protocol.
For the sake of their families I hope they do make it back alive. But if the objective of the expedition is as they say, to secure “relevant scientific data” they should quit now and admit that the cold has defeated the technology, if not them. To do that would also save them the prospect of their anticipated 150 hours of arctic swimming (is this a new extreme sport?) and a high risk pickup/rescue from the ice in May.
crosspatch
April 9, 2009 8:49 am
“Fairly valid” does not mean completely valid or even mostly valid.
Yeah, the choice of works isn’t the best. “A valid representation of typical readings” might have been a better way to phrase it.
jlc
April 9, 2009 9:12 am
Mikinator
“Anecdata” – brilliant!
I will be using it from now on and claiming it as my own based on tree rings and other robust evidence
Scott H
April 9, 2009 9:21 am
Anothony, I think you need to add an additional update between 5 & 6. After they said the system would be down and prior to saying the data was just for March 8th, they still tried to pass the data off as “live” but delayed. The first thing to note is that the data is transmitted on a delayed basis; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time. The current intention is to compress this data and relay it back to the UK at the end of each and every day.
BrianMcL (03:39:09)’s post above has the full capture of the intermediate update.
George
April 9, 2009 9:34 am
“UPDATE8: A story has now appeared in the BBC that says they may not have any data from their towed sled ice radar unit (known as SPRITE) at all:
Arctic team: London, we have a problem from the BBC
A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organizers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.”
There is your cover story for the upcoming emergency evac the team. This expedition is done thank god.
Doubtville
April 9, 2009 9:38 am
Simon Harris-Ward, Director of Operations for Catlin Arctic survey told the BBC: “Given the very extreme conditions they are operating in during the Arctic winter we were always going to face potential difficulties with the array of advanced technology despite our robust testing programme.
There’s the message word again – “robust.”
Also, were the biometrics ever factual – it should be relatively easy to see the heart rates confirm activity, e.g. Pen’s drilling bpm rises higher than treking or sleeping bpm. And do they wear the same sensors throughout the expedition? Something doesn’t smell right.
MikeN
April 9, 2009 9:39 am
Why are you making this out as one grand conspiracy? This is just a funny story, but you guys are acting like 9/11 Truthers. REPLY: When an expedition bills itself as one of science, and then they haven’t they intergity to even report to the public that the data on their “live from the ice” web page is in fact not live, and is a repeating loop of data from March 8th, in brings the entire credibility of the mission and any data they may gather into question. This isn’t a case of people imagining things, this is a clear cut case of falsely presented data, and by their own admission after being prodded, show that it is in fact not “live” but a short segment of data from March 8th. – Anthony
CodeTech
April 9, 2009 9:44 am
“Too cold to snow” is funny… I’ve seen significant snow at -40. All it takes is moist air aloft. Once the snow has formed it’s perfectly happy to fall through that cold air.
And on-topic, I was telling someone I know about this, and they don’t see it as any sort of “bad” thing. So they faked it up a bit, it was designed to “generate awareness”. Yes, they actually used that phrase. “Generate awareness”.
See, to me, when you represent something as a “live feed”, and then don’t actually use a live feed, you have to have a disclaimer somewhere that “these are representative values”. Otherwise there is a name for it: LYING. The obvious conclusion to me is that the entire expedition has established zero credibility, and anything else they say or do can not be believed without further supporting evidence.
Correction: auger not augur. An augur is a seer or prophet; a soothsayer, although maybe if you use an augur to predict the ice thickness you wouldn’t hve to drill a hole all the way through the ice.
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 9:51 am
A quick google search for “David Shukman” reveals the guy to be an environmental journalist. Me thinks he’s in on the scam. More lies. “When in a deep hole stop digging.” someone said.
From his article about the failed equipment just now being released A MONTH LATER. Where was this guy in Bali with Pen Hadow having tea?
The drillings have revealed a typical ice thickness of between 1.5 – 2 metres which is far thinner than a previous generation of explorers encountered.
All this data – and any that can be gleaned from the radar system – will be sent to Arctic specialists at the US Navy Postgraduate School in Monterey, California to help assess the likely fate of the ice-cap. REPLY: PLEASE Don’t jump to conclusions yet, we don’t know it to be a “scam” or that that journalist is involved. That is quite a stretch. All we know for certain is that they have not been forthcoming with their data and situational status until prodded. Folks lets not bring others under the suspicions that Catlin has created all by themselves. – Anthony
Will
April 9, 2009 9:56 am
On too cold to snow, maybe it’s more like too dry to snow. I’ve lived in interior Alaska quite a bit and it is easy to get the idea that when it’s very cold it can’t snow, because it (very very nearly) never does. Usually it’s very cold because the air is dry, and skies are clear already (not that it can’t snow (or falling ice crystal) out of a clear sky). But then too, it needs to be fairly warm, I don’t know say above -30, to be warm enough to glue enough water together to form a recognizable flake. One of the coolest snow stories I get is from my folks who were living in interior at the time and had had a stretch of cold for several weeks. A powerful storm moved into the gulf and pushed warm moist into the area over the cold stagnant pool of air. At -50, they had a magnificent heavy snow of huge dry flakes for the better part of a day.
David Porter
April 9, 2009 10:03 am
B Kerr (07:38:53) : et al
Wonderful bit of humour. Definitely in the Python mould. Sometimes reading these threads can be better than professional comedy.
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 10:07 am
No; the stunt is to generate awareness to justify more taxes and a failed system of governmental control using so called science. Sorry Anthony if this gets snipped but it’s in response to someone who said at least it generates awareness of GW so it’s OK if they are a little off in their story or stories.
B Kerr
April 9, 2009 10:08 am
How time flies just seems like yesterday. Yet it is away back in October 2007. http://plus.maths.org/latestnews/sep-dec07/arctic/index.html
“The results will enable scientists to refine mathematical models that, through equations, link ice thickness to environmental factors like air temperature”
Mathematical models that use equations, what will they think of next.
Hope they not using rx(1-x) for fractional iteration.
David Porter
April 9, 2009 10:18 am
Jack Green (09:51:32) :
Shukman is not just an environmental journalist but a “scientific journalist” and he reported that equipment failures were affected by “wind chill adjusted temperatures”. Now is that the science knowledge of the man or the desire to indoctrinate by the BBC???
B Kerr
April 9, 2009 10:20 am
David Porter (10:03:59) :
B Kerr (07:38:53) : et al
Wonderful bit of humour.
Thanks David, much appreciated.
Hope the chaps get out to Bali.
Always wanted to see the world famous school.
Yes you know the one, Bali High.
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 10:23 am
Wind Chill adjusted temperatures means the instruments froze. If it were “heat index” it would be melted. Like I said Shukman is a willing accomplice not a scientist.
I wonder what you call a scientist that fudges his work for money, fraud or criminal or what?
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 10:32 am
I just watched one of the videos from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7897392.stm
and she drops a pot lid onto some rocks in the bottom of a tent while boiling water on March 26th “The Northern Most Cafe”. Why are they carrying rocks with them because there surely there are’nt any rocks out on the open ice a 1000 km from the shoreline? Hmmm. I’ll watch the other videos to see if there are any other clues that they are staging this hoax or at least salting the story with prior videos.
Neil Hampshire
April 9, 2009 10:34 am
Catalin have mentioned their drilling work
Meanwhile NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center have released their latest sea ice data for the Arctic, showing that the decade-long trend of shrinking sea ice cover is continuing. The new evidence, from satellite observations, also shows that the ice cap is thinning.
Catlin Arctic Survey expedition leader Pen Hadow says that, 37 days into the Project and having drilled into the ice in hundreds of different spots, his observations would seem to support this latest research.
“The drilling experiments I’m doing are showing the ice to be between 1.5 and 2 metres thick”, he told Independent Television News. “Scientists say that means it will not last the summer melt”.
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 10:42 am
Sorry Anthony. I’ll cool my comments but there certainly is something amiss here. I honestly don’t think these guys are even out on the ice. They might have started to but quickly got into trouble and they are now who knows where, near shore. I would bet a quick check with the air charter folks or rescue authorities up there might clear this up somewhat. There certainly are a lot of big companies lending their name to this like Nokia, Panasonic, etc. They won’t like the negative publicity tarnishing their name.
Roger Knights
April 9, 2009 10:55 am
By making a big deal about the recent thickening, the alarmists have set themselves up for a backlash if this year’s ice extent retreats more slowly than it should, and if there is a pronounced thickening of the ice next year.
Roger Knights
April 9, 2009 10:56 am
Oops–make that “by making a big deal about the recent thinning, …”
Andrew P
April 9, 2009 10:57 am
[snip – I appreciate the response but I’m not going to let this thread get carried away by 9/11 truther discussions. I’m sorry but I have to nip this in the bud – Anthony]
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 11:01 am
OK I just watched the video of Ann putting on a frozen coat and it’s not real clear but she’s sitting on a thin foam pad on what looks like a rocky snow covered ground not the floor of a tent that has a sewn in floor. It certainly is not a uniform colored floor you would expect from a tent that has a floor. If it’s a floorless tent then she is sitting on a mottled colored ground. You would think it would be all white if it were ice. From my winter camping experience and taking into account the temperature of the ice in these conditions; that little flimsy REI or thermarest foam pad is not enough to insulate you from -30 Deg F. It says it was shot “a couple of weeks ago” which would be from when they were dropped of on the ice. Hmmmm
Keith
April 9, 2009 11:06 am
” Peter Plail (09:45:57) :
Jack Wedel (08:01:42) :
You can see a picture of the augur on the following link: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery/Science_Equipment/1030
My Mk 1 eyeball suggests a diameter of 40 to 50mm”
I checked the page. Interestingly, all of those picture say they are from Polaris Camp, in the Canada High Arctic. They even show one picture of Pen with somebody named Tarquin Cooper, who is not part of the Ice Team. So that leads me to think the pictures of the drill are from their training camp or from an earlier Hadow Arctic expedition, not this current spring time jaunt. One of the photos even says it is during trials. There are a couple showing Pen pushing a tape measure down the hole he has drilled to measure thickness. Has anybody here tried to hold a tape measure out almost two meters and get an accurate measurement? I have for carpentry work and it is next to impossible unless you have an edge to slip and hook the end of the measure over.
Hank
April 9, 2009 11:06 am
They forget to budget for the polar model of their mass-spectrographic isotopic double-diathermal diaphonoscope and the cables got cold and snapped! Jeepers, I feel for them, about the same thing happened to me one Christmas when I took my brand new deluxe hasbro water rocket outside and the plastic hoses all broke. It makes you want to laugh, but unhappily lives appear to be at stake.
kuhnkat
April 9, 2009 11:12 am
Neil Hampshire,
you are familiar with the word gullible??
I think I will wait till September to decide whether the ice will be smaller or larger this year.
Remember, the summer of 2007 had the smallest recorded ice area in satellite time. It immediately regrew to almost average area. The experts were telling us we were going to see continuing smaller summer extents because the fresh ice was easier to melt and the lack of ice reduced albedo increasing absorption of radiation, and, of course, the continued increase in CO2 meant continued increase in temperatures.
Summer of 2008 the ice was substantially larger than 2007 giving us MORE multi-year ice going into summer 2009.
Oh, I should also mention the atmospheric conditions were perfect for ice melt in 2007 as there was a high pressure area over the arctic that kept the skies clear.
Now, going against the reasons there should be less ice is, the the PDO has gone negative and the NAO has been dropping meaning that the currents contributing to the melt are cooler. Also, in early 2008, the wind and current directions, moving ice out of the arctic to melt, went back to earlier patterns when the melt was lower due to less ice being EXPORTED. (maybe all those AGWers finally stopped putting ice in their drinks??)
Basically the article you mentioned SHAPED the trend by not using 1-2 year old ice as a factor and just skipping from fresh to 2yo and older. It seems more and more there is a STINK to Alarmism that is obvious!!
We also can’t forget the 800 pound gorilla. The sun, and all its proxies, continues quiet, as our host has so well informed us.
JonikA
April 9, 2009 11:12 am
With about 60 more days to go on the survey (ending in late MAY or early JUNE) the comment from the linked news story of the rescue of Mr. Hadow may be a “peek” of things to come for the Catlin ice team. From the article…
“Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk. If you are going to put yourself into a spot like this … it really does need to be thought through.”
Andrew P
April 9, 2009 11:19 am
Anthony – fair enough, but at least read the paper – Prof. Jones et al have put more than their reputations on the line in their quest for truth, and solid scientific investigation like theirs (like the good science on WUWT) should not be sidelined just because the results raise very difficult political questions. It is not just the AGW scam that the mainstream media are perpetuating. Keep up the goog work – loved your armchair research today. (No need to post this).
Dell Hunt, Michigan
April 9, 2009 11:43 am
Maybe the “Live from the Ice” is actually a typo.
Maybe it should read “Lie from the Ice”
Keith
April 9, 2009 11:44 am
Looking through the pictures listed as being from on the ice, it is very hard to tell where the photos have been produced. Some of the headers say they are from Resolute Bay, while others have no location listing. Some show people who are not part of the team. It is very confusing. There is a couple of pictures of Pen drilling in the section titled “Latest Images from the Ice”, but that still dates it back at least to the first resupply at the most recent, and some of the pictures in the set are the same as ones in the set labeled “Resolute Bay”, which was the prep site before they hit the ice.
Allen63
April 9, 2009 11:48 am
While I reserve judgment until the expedition is over and we get the story, it does seem that this was predominantly a PR mission.
However I am not surprised. Its been my personal experience that big, government funded science projects stress PR — as that generates more grant money and prestige than mere scientific results can generate.
e
April 9, 2009 11:54 am
From the article:”Biotelemetry – Data for March 8th 2009
Please note the above data was collected over a 12 hour period on March 8th. This gives us a fair representation of how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.”
The page doesn’t show current data.
B Kerr
April 9, 2009 12:07 pm
Keith (11:06:30) :
” Peter Plail (09:45:57) :
Jack Wedel (08:01:42) :
You can see a picture of the augur on the following link: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery/Science_Equipment/1030
They even show one picture of Pen with somebody named Tarquin Cooper, who is not part of the Ice Team.”
Somebody name Tarquin Cooper!
How can you forget a name like that.
Pen has a nom de plume, his real name is Rupert http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pen_Hadow
A name like Tarquin! http://tarquincooper.com/?cat=3
Have a look do you see anyone you recognise.
The future King of England, handing over the Royal Pennant!!
Dave Andrews
April 9, 2009 12:08 pm
Shukman also cost the BBC a lot of money in damages when he posted an untrue story about a mining company in Africa a few years back. Since then he has been reporting on climate change and accurately parroting the BBC in house line that the ‘consensus is settled’.
Bruce Cobb
April 9, 2009 12:16 pm
Recycling is good though, right? What with Earth Day coming up soon, and all.
Not much else they have there that could be recycled, I wouldn’t think, besides data.
This story is reading like a novel – lots of mystery, intrigue, suspense, and danger.
Time to pop some popcorn!
Joshua Nieuwsma
April 9, 2009 12:21 pm
the Live from the Ice page has become ‘Latest from the Ice’. http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/latestfromtheice. And I tried the XML php file a bit ago, and it is still running, just so you know. I suppose they figured that once they had their lengthy disclaimer written up, they could use it again.
chillybean
April 9, 2009 12:30 pm
All my hoax buds are tingling.
Kenn Borek Air which are flying in the re-supplies.
Where are they flying them in from. Anyone know the airport? Do they have to file flight plans, freedom of information? Anyone living near there that can watch the next re-supply flight and report time of departure, direction of travel, time of return.
Likely there is no spoon, sorry I mean flight.
Reread the information at the bottom of the page. I says the data is from Mar. 8 and is a fair representation of the biometrics of the crew. Not an all together straight forward approach but they do state the information is not live. REPLY: Yes NOW they say that, yesterday, and all the way back to March 8th, they presented it as “live” data. If WUWT had not intervened, it would likely still be presented that way. That note was just added this AM – Anthony
Trevor
April 9, 2009 12:35 pm
Stellar distances aren’t these measured by categorising variable stars called Cepheid variables (or something similar) and also by red shift in the spectrum. ??
Bruce Foutch
April 9, 2009 12:39 pm
RE: Brian Johnson (07:52:52) :
“Or am I going to have to use my Easter of four nails, a hammer and two planks and nail me to a cross!”
Brian. Can you cross your feet please. We only have budget for three nails…
I just watched one of the videos from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7897392.stm
and she drops a pot lid onto some rocks in the bottom of a tent while boiling water on March 26th “The Northern Most Cafe”. Why are they carrying rocks …
Careful – while the text says March 26th, nothing says the video is from the same date. It might be file footage during testing before the expedition started.
The lens & air were sufficiently fogged that I’m not even sure there was a rock, she might have dropped it on “a big sack of snow” (now empty). Before thinking that something may appear was you want it to be, run it through the “is this possible”, “is this likely”, and “what would a news producer do” filters first.
Richard deSousa
April 9, 2009 12:45 pm
The temps might occasionally get too cold to snow but during the ice ages the northern hemisphere was buried in a mile of ice so “too cold to snow” mustn’t have happened too frequently.
The Catlin website does state they’re flying from Resolute, and Kenn Borek Air have an office at Resolute. I doubt very much that they have to file official flight plans, it’s not like they’ll encounter a lot of traffic up there.
I don’t doubt that the expedition is actually on the ice, it’s just that the data collection and feed is a POS.
There are a couple showing Pen pushing a tape measure down the hole he has drilled to measure thickness.
You have got to be kidding me*! I’d love to see the scientific paper that uses that data.
* that was sarcasm.
UPDATE7: The XML source data file used to originally feed the biotelemetry web page flash display has been removed and replaced with a generic logo of the developer/ website company for the Catlin Expedition: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php no longer works.
It works for me.
REPLY: it didn’t work when I posted the update7. Work now for me too. -Anthony
Magnus
April 9, 2009 1:18 pm
Anthony. In answer to MikeN you say “this is a clear cut case of falsely presented data, and by their own admission after being prodded, show that it is in fact not “live” but a short segment of data from March 8th.”
It’s actually seems to be data since the 2nd of April. The three values from a screenshot chillybean refere to (if it exists) are in the same position for Ann, Pen and Martin. So they are still wrong about 8 of April. 🙂 No big sensation…
I agree with Pamela, that that this seems to be record poor science, and just propaganda. If they wouldn’t have had the cold temperatures they may have been heroes. Maybe they still can be spinned as heroes, but the BBC article about “a problem” shows – besides that they can’t count on being picked up after late April and – that they will be taken home quite soon.
Also MikeN is right, that speculations about this taken place in Canada has its truthers pattern, but this isn’t serious. (Easter beer? It may be funny since the AGW horror is full of lies. Oops, sorry my cognitive disorder. Especially this close to Copenhagen 2009…)
If this audit wouldn’t have been done the Catlin project may had been able to say thin ice forced them to leave earlier… You’re doing a great great job! Anyone not too broken should test the PayPal feature.
Graeme Rodaughan
April 9, 2009 1:36 pm
UPDATE8: A story has now appeared in the BBC that says they may not have any data from their towed sled ice radar unit (known as SPRITE) at all:
Arctic team: London, we have a problem from the BBC
A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.
Perhaps this wonderous, robust technology has been supplied by “Green Enterprises Inc”…
Keith
April 9, 2009 1:47 pm
B Kerr
“A name like Tarquin! http://tarquincooper.com/?cat=3
Have a look do you see anyone you recognise.
The future King of England, handing over the Royal Pennant!!”
And if you scroll further down, you see a picture of Cooper with Hadow that matches the set from the Catlin site. It is part of the blog for December 31, 2008. This confirms that that set of pictures about the equipment were all from preparatory exercises at their training site in Canada, which (according to the Catlin website – http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/preparation ) was at Broughton Island for two weeks. And training was apparently done a bit earlier than the website says it was.
Also, Broughton Island is at 67 N Latitude, 64 W Longitude, and it was -40 degrees during training. You would think going further North that they would expect conditions to be worse, even if it was closer to spring.
Is there an actual “crew” out there or is it also “virtual”?
chillybean
April 9, 2009 2:10 pm
“It’s actually seems to be data since the 2nd of April. The three values from a screenshot chillybean refere to (if it exists) ”
Of course it exists, I don’t have anything to lie about.
Here is my desktop screenshot and an insight into my “pointless” life. (Not really I have a good life & enjoy every minute) http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/9540/screencaptureo.png
What I find most disappointing is that I was trying to stick up for these guys as I thought they were just misguided greenies. Now I feel that they are are deliberately misleading people. What about all those school children that are running projects on the biometrics and plotting their heroic efforts.
Shameful. Reply: Curious about catering-ego small. Otherwise, looks like a developer’s desktop ~ charles the no smiley moderator
James P
April 9, 2009 2:11 pm
Joshua Nieuwsma (12:21:47) :
the Live from the Ice page has become ‘Latest from the Ice’.
I noticed that, too, although posting month-old data as the ‘latest’ isn’t a huge improvement in honesty, unless that’s when everything stopped working!
Bill Jamison
April 9, 2009 2:16 pm
Their website says “The next leg will bring 24 hours daylight allowing the team further opportunity to progress north whilst surveying increasing amounts of sea ice each day.” yet Google Earth shows there is still about 7 hours of night at this time of the year at that latitude. I can understand 24 hours of daylight as we get closer to the summer solstice but we’re only 3 weeks past the equinox!
At their current rate of progress they’ll need another 100 days to reach the pole.
James P
April 9, 2009 2:16 pm
What are the chances that they will be pulled off the ice early (for survival reasons) but that this will be spun as ‘safety’ because alleged thinning ice makes resupply too dangerous? Just a thought…
You guys might be interested in these other polar expeditions going on right now – not so (supposedly) high tech but the main one Peary-Henson Centennial Expedition just passed the 87′ latitude ~ blogs and photos
MikeF
April 9, 2009 2:29 pm
Peter Plail (09:45:57) :
You can see a picture of the augur on the following link:
My Mk 1 eyeball suggests a diameter of 40 to 50mm
The auger doesn’t look long enough to go through 2m of ice. Do they have shorter and longer versions? Or maybe the guy carrying it is 2.5m tall?
chillybean
April 9, 2009 2:37 pm
“Curious about catering-ego small.”
Had to rebuild my force 10 cooker on my yacht, an “energy regulator” failed and they wanted silly money for a replacement appx £100 for one control so I improvised & rewired it with more modern technology E.G.O are a cooker spares supplier, nothing exciting I’m afraid. Or Maybe it was “Exciting Global Orange” or “Exhaust Gases Out” or … any suggestions. Reply: Truth is always more mundane than runaway speculation. ~ charles the endless imagination moderator
Some of the ice must be lost by sublimation rather than melting, just as the size of the ice cubes in your refrigerator’s freezer get smaller if not used in a long time. No idea of how significant a factor this is, but it will depend on the average wind velocity over the surface, its humidity and the temperature (below 0 C.)
Jeff Alberts
April 9, 2009 2:55 pm
Will (09:56:15) :
On too cold to snow, maybe it’s more like too dry to snow. I’ve lived in interior Alaska quite a bit and it is easy to get the idea that when it’s very cold it can’t snow, because it (very very nearly) never does. Usually it’s very cold because the air is dry, and skies are clear already (not that it can’t snow (or falling ice crystal) out of a clear sky). But then too, it needs to be fairly warm, I don’t know say above -30, to be warm enough to glue enough water together to form a recognizable flake. One of the coolest snow stories I get is from my folks who were living in interior at the time and had had a stretch of cold for several weeks. A powerful storm moved into the gulf and pushed warm moist into the area over the cold stagnant pool of air. At -50, they had a magnificent heavy snow of huge dry flakes for the better part of a day.
Point taken. However, it can also be too dry to rain on a warm summer day too. The fact remains, it can’t be too cold to snow. The amount of snow may not be “a lot”, but several days or weeks of not “a lot” will build up.
Stephen Brown
April 9, 2009 2:55 pm
I am not, by any stretch of the imagination a scientist, although I have been educated in chemistry, physics and zoology. I am a (retired) policeman with over thirty years service. My career has made me a confirmed sceptic (English, and correct, spelling) with regards to just about everything which is presented to me without any evidence which will stand up to close scrutiny.
I have been following this Arctic expedition since it started because I could not discern any good reason for their undertaking despite their protestations of “scientific enquiry”.
Apart from the anomalous biometric data which has been examined at length above I have been looking (with a sceptical eye) at some of the videos on both the BBC and Catlin websites. My personal experience of “cold” is limited to the slight frosts to which the south of England is sometimes subjected. In those comparatively benign conditions I have noted that the colder it is the denser becomes the vapour of my exhaled breath.
If I were to be in a tent wherein I was attempting to don frozen clothing I would expect that I would be exhaling dense clouds of vapour. If I was not, and that would require the inside temperature of the tent to be sufficiently high as to preclude vapour formation, then I would simply have left my clothing to thaw naturally before trying to put it on. Other videos of a similar nature from this expedition also appear to lack the presence of visible breath vapour other than in those depicting the preparations for the expedition.
This single anomaly in a criminal case which I was investigating would have been sufficient to have warranted a much more detailed examination of the veracity of every statement made by all members of the entire team involved.
I cast no aspersions at this time on anyone involved. I simply state that there exists sufficient reason for a much more detailed examination of this entire episode.
My experience indicates to me that the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth is NOT being told.
At this point, this “science” expedition has likely been reduced to a guy randomly poking a hundred or so holes in sea ice and screaming Eureka! I have found sea water.
More could have been accomplished by going ice fishing in Minnesota. Could have caught some fish.
“Trevor (12:35:25) :
Stellar distances aren’t these measured by categorising variable stars called Cepheid variables (or something similar) and also by red shift in the spectrum. ??”
Stellar distances are measured using geometry (parallax). They measured some stars (I think you are correct Cepheid variables) that they believe have a constant brightness, at least those close enough to measure directly did. They then use a model of brightness versus distance to estimate the distance of Cepheid stars that are more distant. Based on these estimates and the relative red-shift of these more distant stars they estimate the distance of further out objects using the Red shift. The numbers are therefore a bit approximate. I can not remember the story exactly but they have gotten better at the geometry part and measured some stars they had previously estimated and came up with number that were off 30% or so, don’t remember if they were closer or farther.
When you start getting to really distant objects the distant estimate start to depend a lot on cosmological models and the effect of the models on Red Shift. Reply: Cepheid variables don’t have a constant brightness. They appear to have have a luminosity that correlates to their periodicity. By measuring distance to those within the reaches of the parallax method, astronomers established a metric by which they could estimate the absolute luminosity of more distant stars by their period, thus establishing another way to estimate their distance from their absolute luminosity vs. their observed luminosity. ~ charles the oversimplifying moderator.
philincalifornia
April 9, 2009 3:07 pm
Jack Green (10:23:39) :
I wonder what you call a scientist that fudges his work for money, fraud or criminal or what?
—————–
Depends which country they live in, i.e. whether or not prostitution is legal there !!
DaveCF
April 9, 2009 3:26 pm
NoAstronomer (12:51:45) – There probably would not be a flight plan per se, as there would be nowhere to close it on landing, although brief stopovers would be permissible under Visual Flight Rules. More likely Kenn Borak Air would have a ‘flight notification’ with a responsible person (likely their Resolute Bay office) not with Air Traffic Control. If the aircraft did not return within a reasonable time, then search & rescue services would be alerted (and expect a long response time…). At those high latitudes, satellite telephones relying on geosynchronous orbit satellites might not be accessible, so polar orbit satellites with the inherent regular losses of ‘below the horizon’ positioning would be the means of communication – I assume! HF radios are notoriously unreliable in the Arctic (although the lack of sunspots should help); I was once in sight of Frobisher Bay (now Iqaluit) and had to relay messages through Sondestrom, Greenland to communicate – but that was a time of high aurora activity. The Arctic is no place for amateurs – several thousand Inuit no doubt died developing the survival skills necessary, so three Brits trying to reinvite the wheel (or toboggan) don’t cut it.
Hugh
April 9, 2009 3:29 pm
“No mention of being air lifted off of the ice when he was going short on nuts, and dried fruit.”
Hmmmm….seems lke he was plenty nuts.
Wally (14:57:15) :
“Trevor (12:35:25) :
Stellar distances aren’t these measured by categorising variable stars called Cepheid variables (or something similar) and also by red shift in the spectrum. ??”
Stellar distances are measured using geometry (parallax). They measured some stars (I think you are correct Cepheid variables) that they believe have a constant brightness, at least those close enough to measure directly did. […]
That is almost correct, but variables don’t have constant brightness 🙂 Parallax measurement is possible for stars that are very close. Cepheid stars are variable stars that have a close relation between absolute luminosity and their period. So by measuring the period of a Cepheid star you can estimate the absolute luminosity. By measuring the observed magnitude using photometry, you can then compute the distance since the relation between observed and absolute magnitude is known. This works for a range of distances, but eventually other methods must be used, like redshift.
“Reply: Cepheid variables don’t have a constant brightness. They appear to have have a luminosity that correlates to their periodicity. By measuring distance to those within the reaches of the parallax method, astronomers established a metric by which they could estimate the absolute luminosity of more distant stars by their period, thus establishing another way to estimate their distance from their absolute luminosity vs. their observed luminosity. ~ charles the oversimplifying moderator.”
Thank you for the correction, as I hit the post button, I thought “was it constant brightness or just a good function of their variability”. It has been 30 years since Astronomy 101, but at least I did get an A back then. Reply: 32 years for me. ~ charles the old decaying moderator
DPP
April 9, 2009 3:56 pm
Recycling biometric data, hmm, to paraphrase a certain doctor – “They’re dead Jim”
WakeUpMaggy
April 9, 2009 3:57 pm
JimB (03:33:10) :
“hand warmer” I can think of that would prevent any residual water from freezing would be a torch, and only if you could get it lit at that temp.
I tried to melt the ice on my driveway with a 600 degree weed burner this winter when it was 15 outside, no luck. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
This blog keeps me semi-sane, thanks to all of the writers and brilliant scientific and humorous comment makers. Thanks for a tiny window on reality while all the liberal groupthink nuts are stinkin’ thinkin’ on drugs or something. You guys are GOOD! Keep up the questions!
DaveCF (15:26:51) :
…
At those high latitudes, satellite telephones relying on geosynchronous orbit satellites might not be accessible, so polar orbit satellites with the inherent regular losses of ‘below the horizon’ positioning would be the means of communication – I assume!
James P (14:16:18) : What are the chances that they will be pulled off the ice early (for survival reasons) but that this will be spun as ’safety’ because alleged thinning ice makes resupply too dangerous? Just a thought…
If they hadn’t already planned this as the way to end this farce, they have now!
After watching those videos a couple of times each, it’s clear that there’s no visible breath being exhaled. But both Hadow and Martin have their gloves on, implying that it’s too cold to be bare-handed.
Constantly mugging for the camera, Martin keeps blowing on his gloves like he’s trying to warm his frozen fingers. But there is no vapor when he exhales on his hands, loudly and with great fanfare, several times. At the very end, Martin also sits on the minus 40° snow on the ground, right between the foam pads that have separated, but he doesn’t seem to notice.
Conclusion: they’re both somewhere a lot warmer than minus 40°, and they’re putting on a show. Martin had probably just pulled his jacket out of the freezer on the set.
Something doesn’t add up. Call me a skeptic. [Or if you’re Stephen Brown, call me a sceptic.]
If it was just the gloves and no visible breath, there might be an explanation. Like maybe it was warm in the tent, and they were both trying on a new pair of gloves.
[Ri-i-i-i-ght.]
But with all the other questions being raised about the fake live data, the too-short augers, the measuring of exactly 1.06 meters [through a hand drilled, and probably not an exactly vertical hole], and with their ‘robust’ equipment all failing so now we’ll just have to take their word for it, etc., I don’t believe anything they or the BBC say any more, unless it’s independently verified. Those videos, at least, look like they were entirely staged.
So to make lemonade from the lemons… if there are any authors here, there are probably enough pics and information already to start a tell-all book, or at least a good sized magazine article. I’d buy the book — especially if it came out right before the inevitable Hadow book is published.
You can’t keep many secrets with the number of people involved with this, so eventually the truth should come out. Hadow’s flaky past would add some juicy facts, too. And the other shady characters in that same clique, including the financial backers, surely have a past similar to Rupert’s Pen’s. And there are the pilot’s quotes. There’s even a royal prince in the mix!
But for now, I just want to know why we can’t see someone’s breath, in two separate videos, when they’re supposedly exhaling in minus 40° dry air. We should be able to easily see the vapor from their exhaling even if the temperature was above freezing.
Their website says “The next leg will bring 24 hours daylight allowing the team further opportunity to progress north whilst surveying increasing amounts of sea ice each day.” yet Google Earth shows there is still about 7 hours of night at this time of the year at that latitude.
Well, let’s see. My handy-dandy 30 year old program for such things says: 2009 Catlin, Latitude 83:53 Longitude 129:00
Date Rise Set Light Civil Naut Astro Decln Height
...
Feb 22 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -9:55 -3:48
Mar 1 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -7:18 -1:11
Mar 8 8:18A 3:16P 6:58 3:26 **:** **:** -4:35 1:32
Mar 15 6:22A 5:07P 10:45 3:30 **:** **:** -1:50 4:17
Mar 22 4:36A 6:50P 14:14 **:** **:** **:** 0:56 7:03
Mar 29 2:31A 8:50P 18:19 **:** **:** **:** 3:41 9:48
Apr 5 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** 6:22 12:29
Apr 12 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** 8:58 15:05
So yeah, they’re in 24 hour daylight. The Sun’s declination on Apr 9 is 7:52, call it 8 degrees, so the lowest the sun gets at 84N should be 2 degrees. (At the NP the center of the Sun would be 8 degrees above the horizon, 6 degrees away it would be 2 above at local midnight.
In the above table length is HH:MM of daylight, civil is length of civil twilight (Sun 0 to 6 degrees below the horizon), nautical is 0-12, astro is 0-18.
From the biological standpoint and considering the biotelemetry data, they all are dead… 🙂
BDAABAT
April 9, 2009 5:20 pm
OK, I’ve tried to follow the thread, but it’s ridiculously long. I may have missed an important post. Perhaps one of the more code-savvy responders could provide an update about the page that was supposed to contain biometric data.
One poster said that this entire issue with the recycling data was simply a bug… that the data was supposed to be added, but a simple miscode stopped capturing data once a set amount of data was collected from the biometric devices on the individuals.
Other folks have stated that the page has hard coded data… meaning that there wasn’t even a command to look for regularly updated information… that it was simply recycling the data that was already coded.
Those are pretty different conclusions… which is it? Or, IS there a way to actually determine what’s happening?
Thanks!
Bruce
BDAABAT
The Catlin website has been updated since this was discovered. It now says this:
Biotelemetry – Data for March 8th 2009
Please note the above data was collected over a 12 hour period on March 8th. This gives us a fair representation of how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data above is a representation of what the team have gone through on a particular day; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time.
Data obviously varies according to the activity conducted by each team member at certain times of the day. The team typically drag their sledges for 75 minutes and then take a 15 minute break, and as a trio they will usually complete six or seven such sessions each day. As such, their breathing rates, heart rates and core body temperature will be high during the day, and lower during the evening, once they cease skiing.
Occasionally, however, we may see data that does not seem to fit this pattern perfectly. Sometimes this may be due to an ill-fitting monitor (which can work itself loose over a 9-10 hour sledging day) and this can produce readings that are not 100% accurate. At other times, there may be a physiological explanation. As an example, Pen has a naturally low heart rate when compared to many individuals, which incidentally makes him well suited to long distance polar travel.
Readings may also occasionally drop to zero. This can happen if a unit is removed, so that its battery can be replaced, or, in the case of core temperature, if one transmitter pill works its way out of the body’s digestive system and another pill is not immediately swallowed. As such, all of the readings above are best viewed as being indicative of how the human body performs in subzero temperatures. Given that the team are not performing in laboratory conditions, however, some erroneous data should occasionally be expected.
Draw your own conclusions
Shawn F.
April 9, 2009 5:25 pm
On the original subject, Joshua Nieuwsma brings up a good point regarding the date stamp on the data. Robert David Graham brings up a good point as to how their presentation of the data may not be intentionally falsified.
However, if the data is being retrieved as a data call (which is likely as Robert pointed out) then the date/time will certainly also need to be included (likely for every record) otherwise it makes the job of reconstituting the stream nearly impossible. Does anyone know of any type of physical data logging system that does NOT record the exact time along with the stream of data?
At issue with people who attempt to produce a scientific experiment is overcoming one’s own personal bias. I had noticed earlier today denigrating comments about the underlying purpose of Anthony’s initial exploration of this issue with the data. I appreciate his calls for restraint of forming an opinion before enough of the facts are in regarding what, if any, the purpose of this expedition is.
That being said, has anyone considered the very real possibility that they are intentionally drilling these holes to reduce the size of the Arctic?? Think of it – literally *hundreds* of holes! I only worry that they are in the Hansen’s pocket and are attempting to correct the natural accumulation of ice… by hand. I seem to recall a map of the Arctic (I think it was from from the NSIDC) that showed all of these little holes in the Arctic… 2+2 folks.
Maybe I’ll stick with programming and leave the jokes to the bears. Hopefully the people pushing for policy change will leave the science to the scientists… ditto for the advertisers.
Glenn
April 9, 2009 5:51 pm
Appears the expedition was previously named “Vanco Arctic Survey” and they originally planned to start waddling from Barrow to the North Pole, in the same amount of time (100 days), but the trip was to be 2000km.
Here’s an article that will really garner trust in any data: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7036058.stm
“Mr Hadow said: “I feel like a bit of a donkey to be honest; all I’m really going to be doing is pulling this hugely heavy sledge with this incredibly hi-tech gadgetry which can measure the exact thickness of the icecap.”
[…]
“Every 20km, the team will also be drilling ice cores to calibrate the radars and investigate snow and ice density.” http://www.martinhartley.com/portfolio/expeditions/arctic/CAS08_DIG_3873/
dgallagher
April 9, 2009 5:52 pm
Does the Catlin team actually carry a drill bit that can penetrate 4 meter thick ice? I originally questioned the necessity and advisability of sending a team to conduct this research. Frankly it seemed like an excuse to get funding for what they wanted to do anyway. Adventurers frequently come up with hare-brained excuses to cloak their boondoogles with respectability.
At this time, I am doubting everything about the Catlin “Arctic Survey”. Reading some of the posts from the ice, about never giving up etc. And then it turns out that most of equipment needed for this vital scientic effort isn’t even functional. Once the instrumentation quits, it is witless to continue, get off the ice before others are endangered (again), for no valueable purpose.
It seems that they are dragging their butts and sleds across the ice to drill a few holes in a shifting ice sheet (if they actually have a 12 + foot bit with them.) not quite the same as continous radar metrics of the ice thickness, is it? It’s a put on!
kurt
April 9, 2009 6:13 pm
“But for now, I just want to know why we can’t see someone’s breath, in two separate videos, when they’re supposedly exhaling in minus 40° dry air. We should be able to easily see the vapor from their exhaling even if the temperature was above freezing.”
I think this is suspicious certainly, but just to throw out a possible innocent explanation, could it simply be a low-end video camera that can’t pick up the vapor due to resolution or lighting issues? Also, I was watching the video of one guy putting on a frozen coat in a yellow tent. Periodically, it looked a little hazy in there, which I thought could have been vapor from the breath of the person holding the camera.
On a more technical note, a couple of the videos/pictures shown on both the BBC site and the Catlin site show the sledges being pulled over trenched or crevassed ice. Does anyone have any idea of the methodology they use to select the sites to measure thickness of the ice. Presumably this thickness varies quite a bit, and if these pictures are any indication, the variance is large even over a small area, such that site selection – unless it’s adequately randomized with a large number of samples – will have an enormous impact on the average thickness measured.
David S
April 9, 2009 6:24 pm
I’m not quite sure what they hope to achieve. So far they have demonstrated two things:
1)The crew is showing great courage and determination.
2) The Arctic is cold and mostly dark with a rugged terrain composed of snow and ice as far as the eye can see, kind of like one would expect.
Katlab
April 9, 2009 6:24 pm
The lighting on the BBC tent video seems wrong. If it is coming from a direction it would seem to be above them. It’s not coming from the camera. The tent is lit from the outside. Shouldn’t it be lower, or coming from the south side of the tent? This isn’t my field with sun angles and stuff, but would that lighting be plausible at anytime of the day, in Arctic in late March, early April?
crosspatch
April 9, 2009 6:27 pm
“it turns out that most of equipment needed for this vital scientic effort isn’t even functional”
It is hard to make gear work when it is that cold. The values of the various components drift, the properties of semiconductors change, etc. At one point in my life I was a liaison between production and engineering for a manufacturer of military electronics gear. One of the devices had to undergo a cold soak at -60C and then have power applied and be fully operational within thirty seconds of power-up. A lot of the gear Most units didn’t pass that test the first time. The hardest thing was getting the oscillator for the switching power supply to start. About half the units out of production wouldn’t even turn on after an hour soak at -60C.
If you are ever in a situation where you are in temperatures below, say, -30 and you have gear that your life is depending on, you are best to not shut it off once you get it running.
Bearer of Poles
April 9, 2009 6:34 pm
The ice drilling is augmentary.
Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 6:39 pm
“After a small hole is made in the ice (Using the Mora Ice Drill) this CTD is lowered from just under the ice to a depth of 300m at about 0.5 m/s”
Googled “Mora Ice Drill” found this: http://www.strikemaster.com/mora_hand.html
It does not appear to be the same as the core drill in some of the pictures from latest images: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery/Latest_Images_from_the_Ice
The images seem to show a core drill which is very different than an ice drill that seems to be designed for fishing. I’m not sure why they would use a core drill since it would be more difficult to drill and they apparently are not collecting core samples of the ice.
I did not see any extensions available for the Mora ice drill at the website but I do know that drills CAN be extended easily if extensions are available. The extensions would probably be about 3′ long.
Katlab
April 9, 2009 6:43 pm
Another thing about that frozen clothes video, between 1:19 and 1:21 seconds the top of the tent separates from the sides of the tent. Right over the guys left shoulder. You can see outside. I am not a camper, much less an arctic camper, but why would the top of your tent just be a loose covering?
The link is http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962021.stm
john (12:34:39): Reread the information at the bottom of the page. I says the data is from Mar. 8 and is a fair representation of the biometrics of the crew. Not an all together straight forward approach but they do state the information is not live.
REPLY: Yes NOW they say that, yesterday, and all the way back to March 8th, they presented it as “live” data. If WUWT had not intervened, it would likely still be presented that way. That note was just added this AM – Anthony
In my humble opinion, after WUWT intervention, those people decided to “amend” the charade. I can state here and everywhere that most of those biotelemetry reports don’t coincide with any human biosystem real conditions. It’s true that some people can enjoy of a low heartbeat frequency, for example enthusiastic athletes, but one thing is unavoidable: if one’s heart is beating fast for one’s body’s requirement of oxygen due to debilitating exercise, the ventilation rate would be increased because the blood system also needs an increased oxygenation rate at the respiratory tissue level. Martin’s scans are discordant on this respect. A pill not swallowed immediately after the old one was discharged? I don’t think so.
OK: That backing and filling explanation sounds exactly like something a British Bovine Fecal Purveyance Specialist would write. [No offense intended to the good guys here.]
Hey, for all we know, our intrepid explorers might really be in some serious danger up there: click
And I still want to know why there’s no visible breath at minus 40°. I wonder how a BBFPS would explain it?
This is very telling. While the true believers blythely (or blindly) accepted the biometrics at face value, it took a bunch of “flat earthers” to discover, and then validate what was actually going on. Very telling, indeed. Quite the poster child for what sometimes passes for science these days.
J. Peden
April 9, 2009 6:59 pm
So they faked it up a bit, it was designed to “generate awareness”.
Perhaps Anthony’s surface station project should get some nudes into the site pictures?
Jack Green
April 9, 2009 7:07 pm
Watch the videos closely guys. Those are rocks. If the tents were set up on ice without a floor then they would be all white. You can hear the pot lid hit the rocks. The BBC video says it’s from the Crew and the title says THURSDAY 26 MARCH – DAY 27 – THE NORTHERNMOST CAFE which would be on the ice. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7897392.stm
Watch the videos and tell me they aren’t sitting on something that’s not totally white which would be ice or snow. Read the wrapped text and tell me where it says this is not from out on the ice flows. This whole thing is a hoax.
Shawn F.
April 9, 2009 7:30 pm
After thinking about the comments regarding the video clips – I watched the ones that were just being referred to and I see tents that have large, unmelted areas of snow on their tent floor – what I would expect sand would do if people were camping on a beach and entering and leaving with boots and thick clothing.
In the NORTHERNMOST CAFE bit all of the questions regarding condensation – especially from breath I believe is quite visible here. I found that the steam arising from the dishes behaved in a rather believable manner that would suggest the tent pressure was oscillating from wind impacting the side of the tent.
I think that much of the talk about this being a “hoax” is simply banter – we, as a group, have been on the short end of the stick and suffering through bad science pols getting the big prizes. Taking a step back, a reasonable surmise of the situation would indicate that the mission was for media effect primarily, but that the adventurers are playing at being scientific explorers. They’re drilling holes and taking pictures and blogging their journal entries, and, and… and there’s no principle behind why they’re doing it except to get stuff on camera.
I am guessing that the people who are seriously going to try to make this into a “Scientific” journey are just collecting media moments until they have enough of a story that will make a good copy. Once they have a good copy, that is what they will run with. Not a hoax… more of a PR mission. But as the moderators have pointed out – this is only conjecture at this point and we are merely reviewing the data as it is presented in the light of the information that we know.
And occasionally we make fun of the Goracle minions because it is fun.
Doubtville
April 9, 2009 7:44 pm
What we all might consider is – just why a massive political campaign to convince us of global warming – resorts to cheap theatrics? It is not difficult to predict the failure of silicon-based electronics at -40C degree temps. Nor the inability to upload realtime data from a variety of sensors whilst treking some 12-15km per day.
The underlying question is, do the people on Earth need soap-opera-like catastrophic newscasts and PR stunts to modify behavior? And should there not be multiple points of view available to the public so they can determine what side to come down on? I happen to believe the original intention of the AGW campaign was preservation of life. But artificial life? And at what cost?
I believe human beings deserve the unwashed truth. With that, they can enable policy which may make or break their ability to survive.
Smokey (18:49:34): Hey, for all we know, our intrepid explorers might really be in some serious danger up there: click
Penguins are intelligent birds, they don’t live with polar bears… 😉
Shawn F.
April 9, 2009 8:01 pm
Doubtville:
“The underlying question is, do the people on Earth need soap-opera-like catastrophic newscasts and PR stunts to modify behavior?”
YES
” And should there not be multiple points of view available to the public so they can determine what side to come down on? ”
NO, ABSOLUTELY
“I happen to believe the original intention of the AGW campaign was preservation of life. But artificial life? And at what cost?
I believe human beings deserve the unwashed truth. With that, they can enable policy which may make or break their ability to survive.”
Unfortunately not applicable to the topic of AGW. I wonder… what is the carbon footprint of the unwashed truth? Also, with LA water rationing I don’t know how clean you could get it.
@ Katlab (18:24:49) :
“The lighting on the BBC tent video seems wrong. If it is coming from a direction it would seem to be above them. It’s not coming from the camera. The tent is lit from the outside. Shouldn’t it be lower, or coming from the south side of the tent? This isn’t my field with sun angles and stuff, but would that lighting be plausible at anytime of the day, in Arctic in late March, early April?”
The sun is not the only lightsource, especially with the low angle of the sun in the artic the skydome itself plays an important role in lighting a scene like this. So yes it may well look like light comming from above.
I have no doubt that they (the Catlin expedition) have been on the ice, the question is [b]”Are they still on the ice or do they pretend to be?”[/b]
So far i haven’t seen any conclusive evidence that they still are, the reputation of the expedition leader is one wich raises questions and the fact that he uses the same pilots/company (who had to airlift them from the ice in 2003) for resupply missions suggest to me that they might be safe at home.
Correction to the verse: Penguins are smarty birds; they don’t live with polar bears… 😉
Shawn F. (19:30:12): After thinking about the comments regarding the video clips – I watched the ones that were just being referred to and I see tents that have large, unmelted areas of snow on their tent floor – what I would expect sand would do if people were camping on a beach and entering and leaving with boots and thick clothing.
Yes, you’re right on this and on breath condensation seen on the video; I saw it also. The problem is the misleading biotelemetry data. During a month the group showed the data like updated records. In addition, it seems to be that at no moment they notified their website visitors about any failure or unsuitability on the biotelemetry sensors.
ResearchFundingBludgers
April 9, 2009 8:15 pm
hmm looks like a ploy to get lots of research dollars. Did they actually go to the Arctic at all?
Graeme Rodaughan
April 9, 2009 8:15 pm
Hmmmm – A Possible scenario for how this could all end. Black Over Ice.
FADE IN.
OUTSIDE: LATE EVENING – APRIL – ARCTIC SEA ICE.
– A weary group of three explorers, two men and one woman trudge across the ice. A pair of scientists, and their photographer, on a heroic mission to measure the rapidly thinning arctic ice.
Leader: (Stops, lifts GPS Unit and examines readout) “Stop chaps – This is the resupply point”.
Woman: “Thank goodness – I’m exhausted – Oh the Cold – the Cold. – Are we on time?”
Photographer: (Clumsily Drops Camera – Mutters) “Damn frostbite.”
Leader: (Responds) “30 minutes and the resupply plane will be here.”
– The three unpack the equipment sled and assemble the tent that will protect them from the numbing cold.
CUT TO.
INTERIOR: HELICOPTER
– 3 Men in dark suits, sit in the helicopter cabin. The final rays of the setting sun slash across the shining ice. In the distance can be seen the bright orange expedition tent.
– The man in the rear seat lifts a military grade, .50 calibre sniper rifle and loads the first bullet into the chamber.
CUT TO.
INTERIOR: EXPEDITION TENT
Woman: (Cocks Head) “I can hear something.”
Leader: “It’s the resupply plane!”
Photographer: (Turns to Leader) “I’ve gotta leave on this flight – I’m dying on this f#@king ice.”
Leader: (Outraged): “You will not! Are you a coward? – We’re saving the bloody planet out here!”
Photographer: (Rips off glove, revealing a hand reeking with decaying flesh) “What the hell is this then?”
Leader: (Puffs out chest): “A necessary Sacrifice. You can’t do great things without Sacrifice, and proving this ice is melting is a Great Thing.”
Photographer: (Grimaces) “It’s bloody minus 35 degrees out there… All our equipment is broken!”
Leader: (Triumph gleaming in his eyes – lifts an ice auger). “We have this – and it’s enough. – Now get the hell outside.”
Photographer: (Hangs head…) “Alright… Alright…”
– The photographer and the woman both exit the tent; the Leader puts the ice auger down and pats it affectionally before following them outside.
CUT TO:
EXTERIOR: EXPEDITION TENT – ON THE ICE
– The three explorers stare up at the hovering, black helicopter, as the side door smoothly rolls back.
Woman: (Non-plussed) “Why is it a black helicopter?”
Photographer: “Oh.. Damn!”
– The photographer turns and starts to run away from the tent, the helicopter floats like a stone 10 meters above the ice, the final rays of the sun flash off the tinted windscreen – a matt black barrel slides through the open doorway – a sudden gun shot rings out.
– The photographer pitches forward through a red mist of his own blood and collapses onto the ice.
– The woman screams and runs for the tent; a second gun shot cracks like a whip through the twilight. She falls before the tent, her blood gushing from a gaping wound in her chest.
Leader: (Outraged): “What on Earth is going on? Stop this at once!”
– The leader waves both arms widely. The matt black barrel pivots slightly to bear upon him.
Leader: (Screaming with rage): “I order you to stop! Stop I say – Land that Helicopter Immediately!”
– A single shot rings out. The Leader falls back onto the ice, a look of stunned disbelief on his face, his head rolls to the side and he can see the Sun sliding below the ice as he utters his final words in a soft voice.
Leader: (Faintly, Dying): “But, we’re saving the planet”.
– With a smooth roar of power the helicopter rises up and turns away, the gun disappears and the door slides smoothly back into place.
CUT TO:
OVERHEAD SHOT:
– Tent door flaps in the breeze, the three bodies lie about like discarded refuse on pink ice. A pair of Polar Bears enters the field of view and saunter over to the nearest piece of available meat.
CUT TO:
INTERIOR: MORNING – LONDON OFFICE
– The office is expansive and opulent; a large Van Gogh graces one wall, and a sculpture by Rodin stands in the corner. The office windows behind a magnificent desk overlook the heart of the London Financial District. A very well dressed executive sits at the desk, before him stands his head of public relations and media advisor.
– The executive taps on the front page of a written report on the desk in front of him.
Executive: “So, no Polar Bears are in the report.”
Advisor: “Yes Sir, Polar Bears are of course – how might one say it – cuddly.”
Executive: (Nods) “Just so. – And the deaths are attributed to – what?”
Advisor: “The ice, certainly, it was the thinning ice that killed them, they fell through it you see, drowned in the icy waters, and the bodies were never recovered. A Tragedy”
Executive: (Leans back, considering…) “And evidence, do we have some evidence.”
Advisor: (Lifts a cloth bag onto the desk and opens it, withdrawing a small, 2 foot, ice auger) “We have this, the leaders very own ice auger.”
Executive: “His own auger?”
Advisor: (Shrugs) “Well a shorter copy.” (Arches eyebrow) “There is of course, no one who can say otherwise”.
Executive: (Studies the Auger…) “So the ice is less than 2 feet thick. They fall through it, and drown.”
Advisor: (Smug) “Precisely sir.”
Executive: (Smiles) “Excellent. Put it on the wire, this has to have maximum coverage.”
Advisor: (Straightens) “Consider it done sir.”
Executive: “Announce a Charity ball to honour their sacrifice, and charge a 1000 pounds a head, set up the presenters and invite the Prince – he’s always good for an endorsement.”
Advisor: (Smiles) “I will get back to you with location, dates and a guest list Sir.”
Executive: “Good work.”
– The Advisor leaves and the Executive is left alone in his office. He walks over too the wide window and looks out over the city, his city as he likes to think of it. There is a light dusting of snow still falling, it’s late April. He absently twirls the auger in his hand. He puts the other hand on the Rodin, stroking the smooth marble; it has always reassured him, this statue, its permanence, its beauty, its silky smooth touch.
Executive: (Quietly to himself): “So much to do.” (Glances at the autumn snow) “And so little time to do it.”
FADE OUT.
Robert van der Veeke,
Just a tip:
[b]“Are they still on the ice or do they pretend to be?”[/b]
Use arrows instead brackets to bold the text: “Are they still on the ice or do they pretend to be?” (No interspaced)
I agree with you. It seems they are now on another more comfortable location far from the intended research path.
Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 8:31 pm
Okay they apparently have a 5 meter ice drill… I guess Mora is a sponsor.
“The Mora Nova ice drill is providing answers to global warming questions. ” http://www.moraofsweden.com/index.php?cid=452
Doubtville
April 9, 2009 8:38 pm
Graeme Rodaughan (20:15:48) :
“Hmmmm – A Possible scenario for how this could all end.
Black Over Ice. ”
Presumably the Rodin is none other than a clever reproduction of “The Thinker.”
Aside: “black over ice” infers a catastrophic change in albedo. “Your seat back is a flotation device in the unlikely event of a water landing.”
Graeme Rodaughan
April 9, 2009 8:51 pm
Doubtville (20:38:54) :
Graeme Rodaughan (20:15:48) :
“Hmmmm – A Possible scenario for how this could all end.
Black Over Ice. ” Presumably the Rodin is none other than a clever reproduction of “The Thinker.”
Aside: “black over ice” infers a catastrophic change in albedo. “Your seat back is a flotation device in the unlikely event of a water landing.”
“The Thinker” – Could be – Hope that it was entertaining.
Doubtville
April 9, 2009 8:52 pm
Shawn F. (20:01:49) :
“Also, with LA water rationing I don’t know how clean you could get it.”
Yeah. Serious point. Like Jake’s partner said… “Forget it Jake… It’s Chinatown.”
Richard111
April 9, 2009 10:54 pm
Shawn F. (17:25:36) 09/04/09
“”That being said, has anyone considered the very real possibility that they are intentionally drilling these holes to reduce the size of the Arctic?? Think of it – literally *hundreds* of holes!””
You are assuming the ice will “tear along the dotted line”, right?
My own experiences lead me to think this technique is not dependable. Reply: Both of you are missing the point, which is that drilling holes in the ice is an attempt to sink it. ~ charles the sleep-deprived moderator
J.Hansford
April 9, 2009 11:51 pm
I still don’t know why they didn’t simply do as the Top Gear team did and just drive to the North Pole in a 4Wheel Drive Toyota’s…. If three larikins with no brains can do it… Anyone can.
…. Actually they could’ve contacted GM and used Prius’s…. Oh. That’s right Prius doesn’t work in low temps. The batteries go all funky…. Seems nothing that these AGW mob do, works.
…… and they want us to change the energy economy of the world?
We would have to be mad. Wouldn’t we?
charles the sleep-deprived moderator
Heh! Now you have a partner, thanks to a toothache.
M White
April 10, 2009 12:53 am
“Arctic team: ‘London, we have a problem’ ” http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
“A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully. “
Katherine
April 10, 2009 1:51 am
Shawn F. wrote:
I am guessing that the people who are seriously going to try to make this into a “Scientific” journey are just collecting media moments until they have enough of a story that will make a good copy. Once they have a good copy, that is what they will run with.
Once they have sufficient media moments, you can expect How I Spent Spring Break in the Arctic coming soon to bookstores near you.
Roger Knights
April 10, 2009 2:11 am
Stephen Brown wrote: “sceptic (English, and correct, spelling) “
Not according to Fowler’s classic Modern English Usage:
“The established pronunciation is sk-, whatever the spelling; and with the frequent modern use of septic and sepsis it is well that it should be so for fear of confusion. But to spell sc- and pronounce sk- is to put a needless difficulty in the way of the unlearned, for sce is normally pronounced se even in words where the c represents a Greek k, e.g., scene and its compounds and ascetic. America spells sk-; we might pocket our pride and copy.”
C Colenaty
April 10, 2009 2:36 am
Someone’s comment discussed the physiological readings reported, and in the process mentioned that Pen’s pulse rate was clearly slower than that of the other two members of the expedition. That point struck a chord with me when I matched it with other information about him that had been mentioned.
Pen::
1. Is known to involve himself in risky behavior.
2. Doesn’t seem to do well at applying learning from negative past experiences. For example, in his rescue at tje end of his solo hike to the north pole his rescuer almost certainly pointed out forcefully that rescue attempts made after April 30 placed the life of the rescuer in danger. And yet Pen’s present project is designed to place him at the north pole in June.
3. Several of the comments have pointed to poor decisions made in regard to clothing, sleeping bags, etc. While he is an experienced arctic explorer, he doesn’t seem to have done well in applying this experience in planning for some important aspects of the present expedition.
4. And finally, he has a slower pulse rate.
Researchers report that these four characteristics or conditions match (and possibly only coincidentally) some of the major characteristics or conditions that go with the profile of the psychopath. Anecdotal reports from researchers studying psychopaths also describe many as being so persuasive and believable that even those who are alert to the need to take care can be “taken in” by them.. Psychopaths don’t play by societies rules, and “we normal people” tend to let them get create harm because we don’t know what to do in dealing with them. In my befoe retirement exper as a management psychologist I have found that many having this pattern are found in sales or as entrepreneurs. This can create real problems when a perwon with these tendencies gets into a position of power. For example, what do you think might happen in the world of climatology if someone of this sort were placed in charge of a major climate organization in the government? You would be faced with someone who manipulated data, who made outratious claims about climate in order to foster his personal agenda, who ignored rules that didn’t suit him, etc Hopefully, such a thing will never happen.
And incidentally, I have used “he” and “him” intentionally because 95 % of those with this pattern are male.
Mike Bryant (18:39:41) :
“After a small hole is made in the ice (Using the Mora Ice Drill) this CTD is lowered from just under the ice to a depth of 300m at about 0.5 m/s”
I am not used to using such ice drills so take this with a grain of salt. But:
Go to http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery/latest_images_from_the_Ice
Find the image where someone in an orange/white outfit operates a white and green ice drill. That is apparently the Mora Ice Drill.
Mora is a place in Sweden, so this is a swedish product http://www.moraofsweden.se/
They hav various different ice drill models http://www.moraofsweden.se/index.php?cid=35&ssel=48
But the “Mora Ice Arctic” is not shown with a photo. You would think that was the one they are using?
The “Pro” version looks different and can drill max 120cm according to Mora. The “Easy” version drills max 90cm of ice. The “Micro” version drills max 88cm, and it looks different too.
I looked for pictures of the “Mora Ice Arctic” on other sites and found http://www.godestunder.no/images/produktbilder/isfiskeisbormoraicearctic.jpg
This page tests the “Mora Ice Arctic” http://www.klikk.no/friluft/fiske/article257802.ece
It says the total length is 159-198cm with builtin telescopic extension, transport length 116cm. The spiral is 83.5cm. But most importantly, the max ice thickness is given as 151 cm.
Didn’t these people claim that they have measured ice thicknesses in excess of 1.5 meters using this equipment? Is that credible? Someone with Ice drill experience should comment.
Brian Johnson
April 10, 2009 3:38 am
Pen Hadow was rescued from an earlier Polar quest [2004?] around mid May. Dicy rescue on cracking ice. Told he was an idiot by his rescuers. At what stage will the ‘idiot’ decide they need rescuing this trip, as at their rate of progress they won’t get to the N Pole and more lives will be in jeopardy just getting these 3 fools back to civilization and surgery and ridicule from a large section of AGW skeptics…… But then they will be rewarded by a meeting with Al Gore………… Doh!
Mike Bryant (20:31:28) :
Okay they apparently have a 5 meter ice drill… I guess Mora is a sponsor.
5 meters? Then why is their “Arctic” version apparently rated for max 151 cm? Are they carrying 3.5 meter extensions with them, or is this a custom made version? Why would they make a 5m drill if they expect the ice to be so thin anyway?
And is it practically possible to hand drill through 5m Ice?
B Kerr
April 10, 2009 3:47 am
Just been looking at the Catlin Education Resources. http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/education_resources.aspx
Really quite exciting.
“Arctic Survey Education enables students to access live data,”
Yes we can access live data, even today Friday 10th April 2009
Oh boy, oh boy and soon I’ll be “using mathematical skills to complete a ‘virtual expedition’”
Do hit the Geography link and download the pdf Ice Recording Template!
This template I’d imagine will “assist in our understanding of how fast the ice is thinning.”
The template states “Arctic Survey Education is a trading name of, and Catlin Arctic Survey is an event of, Pen Hadow Consulting Ltd”.
The Catlin Arctic Survey is an event.
Silly me I thought it was a scientific expedition.
Mike Bryant (20:31:28) :
Okay they apparently have a 5 meter ice drill… I guess Mora is a sponsor.
“The Mora Nova ice drill is providing answers to global warming questions. ”
Oops, that answers the question of which model they are using. So how deep you can drill with the Mora Nova ice drill? 5 meters?
There is a video showing the Mora Nova here
Harold Ambler
April 10, 2009 4:56 am
Having watched video of the team, their breath freezing the inside of their tent, their stove so loud they could barely be heard over it, their stress written on their faces and audible in their voices, I am not among those who consider the expedition to be a hoax.
I am, on the other hand, among those who consider it to be badly run, with an ill-informed, lightly dishonest p.r. machine that could lead to tragedy.
I conducted a phone interview yesterday with the chief of communications, who knew less about hypothermia — and the team’s condition — than most of the people on this site.
My post about the interview is here: http://talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/205/
Gerald Machnee
April 10, 2009 5:21 am
J.Hansford (23:51:36) :
**I still don’t know why they didn’t simply do as the Top Gear team did and just drive to the North Pole in a 4Wheel Drive Toyota’s…. If three larikins with no brains can do it… Anyone can.**
First, they are further north than Top Gear ever was. Top Gear started from Resolute and went a bit northwest to the magnetic north pole which is not as far as the refueling cache at Isachsen ofr Borek Air. They went over an island to the west of Resolute. Then, do we really know if they did all that? It is entertainment.
Magnus
April 10, 2009 5:44 am
Doubtville (19:44:09). Good questions.
This expedition, where Hadow (a known enviro-alarmist) claimed what the answers and outcome will be already before the trip — and also Gore’s movie, even more “The Ages of Stupid”, Mark Lynas’ six degrees, etc. — can be compared with any propaganda. Leni Riefestahl 2009.
Mike Bryant
April 10, 2009 5:53 am
“First, they are further north than Top Gear ever was…Then, do we really know if they did all that? It is entertainment.”
I would submit that the Top Gear Expedition was not only more entertaining than the Catlin Debacle, but more honest as well.
Mike Bryant
April 10, 2009 5:58 am
“5 meters? Then why is their “Arctic” version apparently rated for max 151 cm? Are they carrying 3.5 meter extensions with them, or is this a custom made version? Why would they make a 5m drill if they expect the ice to be so thin anyway? And is it practically possible to hand drill through 5m Ice?”
All excellent questions. Anyone here know those Mora guys?
Llanfar
April 10, 2009 6:00 am
DPP (15:56:23) :
Recycling biometric data, hmm, to paraphrase a certain doctor – “They’re dead Jim”
Okay – you take the tri-corder, I get the wallet.
Scott H
April 10, 2009 6:10 am
Katlab (18:43:50)
Another thing about that frozen clothes video, between 1:19 and 1:21 seconds the top of the tent separates from the sides of the tent. Right over the guys left shoulder. You can see outside. I am not a camper, much less an arctic camper, but why would the top of your tent just be a loose covering?
The link is http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962021.stm
Nice catch, and another thing about that video as you keep watching, look at the ground, isn’t that rock and ice? Why isn’t their tent entirely insulated… But the real kicker is, pause the video at the 2:50 mark and look in the lower left hand corner… Is that a plant?
Mike Bryant
April 10, 2009 6:15 am
Carsten,
In order to operate the hand drill, no extension should be longer than a meter. So perhaps, erring on the side of trust, (which might be stupid in this case) They have the arctic model and 4 – 1 meter extensions. Nothing else makes much sense.
PS I was wrong about the picture being a core sample drill… it is obviously the Mora arctic.
Mike
Shawn F.
April 10, 2009 6:18 am
Harold Ambler: “I am, on the other hand, among those who consider it to be badly run, with an ill-informed, lightly dishonest p.r. machine that could lead to tragedy.”
I agree entirely. Also, I envy people who can marshal their thoughts, time, and energy to put together a site and conduct interviews and actually move scientific inquiry (or enquiry for the Brits) forward. Anthony, Harold – thank you for trying to ferret out information and thank you for trying to remain objective.
If I can rely on other people to be objective I can act like a jackass and not worry so much. Fact is – we all know it is more fun to be a pig and make fun of someone or something than to try and build something.
While I’m on a rant – I had noticed on another site people suggesting that this particular thread on this site was trivial naval-gazing (they did not phrase it nearly so well). However, the validity as to why this is important is as a basis to analyze the argument put forth by the Catlin group. The slick image of the page with the assertion that they have the attention, ability, and follow-through to actually monitor all of this data in real-time from such a distance and overcome so many technical challenges – this is an argument of authority (the opposite of an ad hominem attack but just as wrong). It is used to hide the lack of credibility of the science in the mission. It is a very good thing that Anthony Watts is on the ball. Would these people on their own tell us where they are making data up?
James P
April 10, 2009 6:27 am
Pen’s pulse rate was clearly slower than that of the other two members of the expedition
Didn’t someone suggest earlier that the other two were sharing a sleeping bag to keep warm? That might affect their pulse rates… 🙂
Jeff Alberts
April 10, 2009 6:35 am
First, they are further north than Top Gear ever was. Top Gear started from Resolute and went a bit northwest to the magnetic north pole which is not as far as the refueling cache at Isachsen ofr Borek Air. They went over an island to the west of Resolute. Then, do we really know if they did all that? It is entertainment.
The probably didn’t. Top Gear tends to fudge most of what they do. Still, it’s a ripping hilarious show.
Charles,
“Reply: Both of you are missing the point, which is that drilling holes in the ice is an attempt to sink it. ~ charles the sleep-deprived moderator”
My thoughts exactly… Graeme Rodaughan (20:15:48) Thank you, amusing take.
After watching the video, The only peculiarity I note is the lack of breath condensation. If they just spent the night, the interior walls of the tent would have hoar-frost from their breathing as well. The white stuff on the bottom of the boot is unlikely sand, more likely snow. From personal observation, my breath shows at about 50 F and below.
Mike Bryant
April 10, 2009 7:06 am
“But the real kicker is, pause the video at the 2:50 mark and look in the lower left hand corner… Is that a plant?”
I didn’t see a plant, but it does seem odd that the jacket was folded up as if it had been kept in a box… a freezer perhaps… maybe it would be better laid flat below the sleeping bag. Of course, I might be all wet… also, still wondering about the lack of visible exhalations…
AnonyMoose
April 10, 2009 7:35 am
The complete high-resolution transect (stored on SPRITE, the ice penetrating radar) of the ice will be come available after the end of expedition. These unique findings will be delivered to our global partner (WWF International), who will then present them at the UN Climate Change Conference at Copenhagen in December 2009.
The IPCC says that it does not report raw data nor perform research. It summarizes the research of others. Giving data to the IPCC is a waste of resources.
Harold Ambler (04:56:50):
From your article: “What has been said and is, as you I am sure aware pretty obvious, they are constantly battling hypothermia.”
Harold, that man, Pen, is showing lethal hypothermia. It is not possible for a human being to tolerate an inner body’s temperature below 35 °C. Pen’s scans show always</b core temperature 33 °C</b. He must be dead. Perhaps he is Superman or the sensors failed since the first moment? I don’t want to talk about the other unusual homeostasis from Ann and Martin because I have written about it some posts above.
I have never said the whole thing is a hoax. But I sustain that biologically, based on the data from Catlin website, those people must be dead. Another alternative is that they are in another warm location and those biotelemetry data were invented, which, even if they were on the Arctic, makes it a hoax.
Colenaty (02:36:02) : Someone’s comment discussed the physiological readings reported, and in…
4. And finally, he has a slower pulse rate.
and 5. He always has values of lethal hypothermia.
Jack Green
April 10, 2009 8:17 am
This man Steve Penikett with Borek Air works both poles in rescue attempts for the NSF (National Science Foundation). I sent them an email about the Catlin Resupply flights a couple of days ago with no read reply or response back. http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2003/09/17/antarctica_rescue030917.html
Apparently Hadow paid them $100,000 in the 03 aborted trip to pick him up. I could have read that wrong. http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2003/may/29/stevenmorris
and in the article about the criticism of the late start Hadow’s spokesman Steve Jones said they couldn’t leave earlier because the planes can’t land until there is enough light on a beach of Ward Hunt Island. I wonder if that’s where the Catlin Expedition is now- Ward Hunt Island? When did they start this trip- March 1st or so? This would be in direct conflict with what Borek Air said that they can’t land in the dark on the Arctic Ice. Hmm the pot simmers.
Elizabeth
April 10, 2009 8:20 am
The other day I was staring at the biotelemetry section of their webpage and, although I didn’t pick up on the repeating patterns, I had a strange thought. It occurred to me, were they even still out there on the ice?
I noticed some time ago that their data page disappeared from the site.
Jack Green
April 10, 2009 8:37 am
Bill wrote this and from the table it looks like they didn’t have enough light to fly until March 8th or so. I could be reading this table wrong but it needs to be studied. Bill can you chime in on this?
Bill Jamison (14:16:10) :
Their website says “The next leg will bring 24 hours daylight allowing the team further opportunity to progress north whilst surveying increasing amounts of sea ice each day.” yet Google Earth shows there is still about 7 hours of night at this time of the year at that latitude.
Well, let’s see. My handy-dandy 30 year old program for such things says:
2009 Catlin, Latitude 83:53 Longitude 129:00
Date Rise Set Light Civil Naut Astro Decln Height
…
Feb 22 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -9:55 -3:48
Mar 1 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -7:18 -1:11
Mar 8 8:18A 3:16P 6:58 3:26 **:** **:** -4:35 1:32
Mar 15 6:22A 5:07P 10:45 3:30 **:** **:** -1:50 4:17
Mar 22 4:36A 6:50P 14:14 **:** **:** **:** 0:56 7:03
Mar 29 2:31A 8:50P 18:19 **:** **:** **:** 3:41 9:48
Apr 5 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** 6:22 12:29
Apr 12 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** 8:58 15:05
So yeah, they’re in 24 hour daylight. The Sun’s declination on Apr 9 is 7:52, call it 8 degrees, so the lowest the sun gets at 84N should be 2 degrees. (At the NP the center of the Sun would be 8 degrees above the horizon, 6 degrees away it would be 2 above at local midnight.
In the above table length is HH:MM of daylight, civil is length of civil twilight (Sun 0 to 6 degrees below the horizon), nautical is 0-12, astro is 0-18.
maz2
April 10, 2009 8:47 am
The race to the Pole is on.
Mush.
…-
$ Mr Powell is keen to hear from anybody who wishes to sponsor him, be it individuals, or corporate sponsors.
Call him on 01706 217 865. $
“Helmshore dad-of-two to ski across the Arctic
9:28am Thursday 19th February 2009″
” Mr Powell, who runs Holden Vale Hotel, Holcombe Road, will start official preparations on April 9 in Longyearbyen, Norway, before being air- lifted to the Borneo Ice Station on April 16.
Their team will then set out for the Pole. Working with dog teams along the way, in temperatures as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius, the aim is to reach the North Pole around 12 days later.
The expedition is being organised by a team in the USA, and Mr Powell will meet up with the only other UK participant when he starts the trek in the spring. ” http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/rossendale/helmshore/4138066.Helmshore_dad_of_two_to_ski_across_the_Arctic/
After looking at the frozen jacket video once again, it appears that what might seem to be condensation at one or two points is actually a function of the changing lighting in the tent, along with a low res video camera.
I could be wrong about this. But starting at about the half minute mark, Martin’s face is above his black clothing. The contrast should show condensation from his breathing. I couldn’t see his breath, even when he was mugging for the camera by forcefully blowing on his fingers several times.
Also, in the article with the cooking video, Anne states that the cooking must be done inside the tent, where she says the temperature is minus twenty degrees. If the Martin tent is around minus 20°, his exhalations should be easily visible.
Finally, this video [click] was taken at night with the moving ice in the background. But in this video, there is no question that condensation from Hadow’s exhaling can not be seen. It’s simply not there.
I grew up where sub-zero temps were common, and I know what condensed vapor from breathing looks like. If someone has a reasonable explanation for the missing condensation in this video, I’d like to hear it.
Elizabeth (08:20:02) : The other day I was staring at the biotelemetry section of their webpage and, although I didn’t pick up on the repeating patterns, I had a strange thought. It occurred to me, were they even still out there on the ice?
Given those bizarre recycled biotelemetric data, I concluded that they already are dead or they’re not out there on the ice.
For example, Martin, from the team, shows a normal ventilation rate while his heart is beating hastily. I don’t know if he’s an android or something of the kind, but humans cannot pause or delay the oxygenation of blood. It seems he’s aside a powerful heat source, more than exercising. On the latter, when we are exercising both cardiac frequency and breath rate increase by higher requirements of oxygen. If you stop breathing during exercise hypoxia would come immediately. If a person suffers some cardiac ailment, for example angina, the provision of oxygen to the body becomes deficient and the person feels suffocation. After Anthony discovered the recycling of the telemetry data, breath rate has been corrected on Catlin’s page.
Jack Green
April 10, 2009 9:28 am
I went to the Catlin web site and read through their planning and they were to leave February 22, 2009 to be dropped off at the starting point. It was so far according to the plans that a “floating ice base” was established to refuel the Twin Otter on it’s path back to Resolute. Apparently the range of a Twin Otter is to0 small so they were to need manned refueling stations.
This brings up even more questions. Well now how are those folks at the two floating ice bases doing? The pictures just show a tent but no fuel drums or extra provisions to just sit there on the ice waiting for the plane to fly by. How can they land on the ice in the dark? This whole story seems “cooked up” to me and some internet web page expert pieced it together without consultation with a real logistics manager with arctic experience.
This is getting more far fetched the deeper I did into it.
Now lets see what we have here as to unanswered questions in addition to the faulty bio data. 1. odd video with things that should be there like breath vapor and things that shouldn’t be there like rocks at 1000 km onto the ice where there shouldn’t be 2. planes that would have to land in the dark on the ice 3. refueling floating forward bases 4. prior failures of this guy Hadow. 5. Sat photos showing lots of open cracks in their paths.
I’m sure I’m forgetting something but this whole trip is starting to look like it’s not happening in real time just like the bio data. REPLY: In almost any endeavor, you can look at things after the fact with a skeptical eye and find inconsistencies. Let’s stick with what we can prove, like the bio data being presented as live when it was not. – Anthony
Keith
April 10, 2009 9:29 am
Smokey, in your video, not only is there no breath condensation, but Pen looks like he is in a light windbreaker almost, has no facial covering, and is wearing gloves without fingers. If the temperature is really as cold as they were reporting, the fingerless gloves would be an invitation for frostbite and you should see some redness in Pen’s cheeks from being exposed to the cold in such an unshielded manner. Instead, his face is pretty much the same color throughout. And against his black jacket, I would expect to see a bit of condensation with every word he spoke.
If you catch the last few moments when he stands up, you can also see he isn’t wearing thick pants at all, but what look like fairly tight pants, almost like leggings, stuffed into his Macs. You would almost think this video was shot in an unprepared state, like he had just jumped out of bed and thrown on minimum clothes in surprise at the noise he had heard.
But unlike what he says in the video, this is not a rare occurrence in the Arctic. I’ve seen many films showing pan ice compacting and rubbing like what is shown at the beginning of the video. I’ve even seen it in person occurring on river ice here in Tennessee (on the Mississippi River).
So, as an experienced Arctic explorer, this should have been old hat, not even worth getting out of bed for, yet they went and shot a video of it. Why? Because they were going to have to move camp? They should have had warning of this as you would normally only get this sort of compaction if you were near the edge of the floe that you were on, so you would know not to be camping so close to the edge. Theatrics? Planned? Can the ice compaction be blamed on Warming?
tty
April 10, 2009 10:05 am
Re maz2 (08:47:39) :
Borneo ice station is at 89 north, i e 111 kilometers from the Pole. Not much of an expedition. Actually I think he could probably start from Longyearbyen (about 78 north) and go to the pole from there. There is an awful lot of ice around Svalbard this spring: http://retro.met.no/images/image_000140_1239375665.jpg
B Kerr (10:11:37),
Yes, it appears you asked the question first. Did you ever get any explanation at all?
RayB
April 10, 2009 10:19 am
While it is hard to believe that any AGW theory supporter would ever be dishonest, I love a well supported conspiracy theory.
Based on my observations and your guys’ points, I think that they are hustling someone.
1) Here at 45.5N -88W it gets to -30 in winter, and yes you can see your breath when it is cold. It is missing in the moving ice interview, and in the tent. The exertion of putting on the frozen jacket would also have a guy puffing and putting out a little steam. It is not so in either case. His light jacket, no gloves, and no face protection in the moving ice interview is very suspect as well. He would be shivering, and his hands would steam if they were taken out of gloves.
2) The tent is wrong as you guys pointed out. Yes at about 1:19 on the jacket video he hits the tent with his arm and lifts the top. You can see that it is only tied on every foot of so, and he exposes a gap. Two things here. One, no they would not take that porous of a tent into the Arctic. The wind would shred it in short order, and it would be cold with the arctic wind howling through the huge gaps. Here is the fun part… Look at the gap, and it looks like TREES in the background. That must be one of those floating Arctic Maples..
3) I suspect that a lot of the stuff that we are seeing was actually done on the practice run at Resolute Bay. A lot of the features are the same, the clothes are the same, and they even have the moving ice features.
4) The mission is guaranteed to end in failure due to breaking up ice. They chastised Rupert for a previous expedition when he had to be rescued in early May, putting lives at risk. This is scheduled to end about June 10th, and they are behind schedule. They planned to be on the ice 6 weeks after it was safe, pretty much establishing a secured outcome. There is no question that they won’t make it due to ice breakup, which will be promptly blamed on AGW. I sure wish I could find that sure of a thing in the securities market..
I will admit to being very skeptical, but to me this smalls like a 3 million pound, or ($4.38 million dollar US) hustle with a predetermined outcome. Maybe they really are doing it, but all of the failures and all of the questions add up to what smells like another AGW enviro-hustle.
Dell Hunt, Michigan
April 10, 2009 10:26 am
Sixty Minutes 2011 interview with Al Gore:
“There’s still a lot of skepticism about whether global warming is man made,” Stahl remarked.
“There’s even skepticism about whether it is the Solar Minimum that’s cooling the Earth the last several years instead of the annual Earth Hour where everybody turns off their lights for one hour.”
“I don’t think there’s a lot…” Gore said.
“Well, there’s pretty impressive people like the Wattsupwiththat.com blog,” Stahl pointed out
“You’re talking about Anthony Watts?” Gore replied.
“Yeah, but others. And they say carbon dioxide doesn’t causing Global Warming and why spend all this money till we really know,” Stahl said.
“I think that those people are in such a tiny, tiny minority now with their point of view. They’re almost like the ones who still believe that the Catlin expedition was staged on a UK sound stage, or that they froze to death or were ate by starving polar bears, instead of falling through the melting Artic polar Ice. That demeans them a little bit, but it’s not that far off,” Gore said.
B Kerr
April 10, 2009 10:28 am
Smokey (10:18:59) :
No I never got a reply, but I assumed it had something to do with vapour pressure of air at -40 or that the air was so dry that water vapour would disappear or was it the kind of gum that Pen was chewing.
But then again they did have chicken dumplings and that might have set up a strange vapour in the tent.
hotrod
April 10, 2009 10:46 am
Smokey (09:02:13) :
After looking at the frozen jacket video once again, it appears that what might seem to be condensation at one or two points is actually a function of the changing lighting in the tent, along with a low res video camera.
I could be wrong about this. But starting at about the half minute mark, Martin’s face is above his black clothing. The contrast should show condensation from his breathing. I couldn’t see his breath, even when he was mugging for the camera by forcefully blowing on his fingers several times.
Also, in the article with the cooking video, Anne states that the cooking must be done inside the tent, where she says the temperature is minus twenty degrees. If the Martin tent is around minus 20°, his exhalations should be easily visible.
Finally, this video [click] was taken at night with the moving ice in the background. But in this video, there is no question that condensation from Hadow’s exhaling can not be seen. It’s simply not there.
I grew up where sub-zero temps were common, and I know what condensed vapor from breathing looks like. If someone has a reasonable explanation for the missing condensation in this video, I’d like to hear it.
The other missing factor that should exist at -30 to -40 temps is a complete lack of hoarfrost on the inside of tents, on the jackets and faces of the people.
In the dressing video, there is just a trace of frost seen on the red sleeping bag cover near the open end but not nearly as much as I would expect at those temps.
When I have slept in a tent at significantly subzero temperatures, in the morning when you wake up, the entire area inside the tent is covered with ice crystals from your breaths condensation. You have to be careful not to brush up against the inside of the tent or you will cause a snow storm in the tent from all that hoarfrost getting knocked loose by your movement.
At only -15 deg F temps, when I try to start my car, in the morning fog from my breathing is very very obvious in the quiet air of the car (as it should be in the tent), and heavy enough that in a matter of a few seconds, a layer of frost begins to form on the inside of the windshield as the humidity freezes out on the cold glass. The same sort of thing happens inside tents, unless outside temps are high enough (about 10 deg F or so) that the temperature inside the tent stays just above freezing.
Slightly damp clothing can get very stiff at temperatures just a few degrees below freezing depending on how much retained moisture they have.
If I were to hazard a guess on the air temp based only on these observations I would put the temperatures in the low double digit plus temperatures (deg F) or low single digit Celsius.
Larry
Mike Bryant (06:15:21) :
Carsten,
In order to operate the hand drill, no extension should be longer than a meter. So perhaps, erring on the side of trust, (which might be stupid in this case) They have the arctic model and 4 – 1 meter extensions. Nothing else makes much sense.
PS I was wrong about the picture being a core sample drill… it is obviously the Mora arctic.
Mike
Mike,
As you pointed out yourself, Mora says they are using the Mora Nova Ice Drill, and on closer inspection, the images on the Catlin website confirm that. I believe I saw an image of it with a couple of extensions in their image gallery.
But why are they using an ice drill apparently intended for fishing purposes to measure the sea ice thickness? It would make sense to use a much smaller diameter drill, like is shown on a couple of videos you can find on the web of people actually doing manual ice thickness measurements? It would be easier to carry along also. Perhaps they had planned to supplement their food supply as they are measuring the ice thickness? 🙂
This whole thing smells, if not of fish.
Jack Green
April 10, 2009 10:54 am
With all due respect Anthony I don’t think it’s after the fact. These videos and other observations would be and are said to be happening now.
As for proof how could they land on the ice in the dark for their drop off. The the big deal is that they aren’t even out on the ice since it would have required an impossible night landing. I will call Kenn Borek Air and see if they can substantiate the flights. I’ll report back what they say since they haven’t responded to emails. REPLY: I’m all for investigation, but let’s not make conclusions without doing so first. – Anthony
Highlander
April 10, 2009 11:32 am
Well, after having read nearly every post, I have to say that I’m a bit flummoxed over several things, not the least of which questionable data.
.
In the matter of fog: A long time ago, I knew a fellow who’d been in the USAF, and he’s gone on an arctic training exercise. One of the things he related to me was that when they stopped to bivouac, there always occurred a ‘local fogging condition.’
.
He indicated that such was visible from space through spy sats of the period (1970’s), and that it was considered something of a tactical problem, in that it was a dead giveaway to one’s position.
.
So, why no fog from the three local hot air generators?
.
—————
Re: Jack Green (19:07:47) :
Watch the videos closely guys. Those are rocks. If the tents were set up on ice without a floor then they would be all white. You can hear the pot lid hit the rocks.
—————
Well, there’s a really good explanation here: In the Arctic, there’s a little known phenomenon called ‘ice rocks.’ This is a species of ice which forms when human get close enough to it that it turns normal surface snow into, well, rocks.
.
The strangest thing here is that they don’t melt when placed near heat. In fact, they get more ‘robust’ with the greater heat.
.
Further, they float in water, which after a period of a few hours will revert back to normal H2O.
.
—————
Scott H (06:10:48) :But the real kicker is, pause the video at the 2:50 mark and look in the lower left hand corner… Is that a plant?
—————
That’s another little known and least understood aspect Arctic ice. What happens —just as with the Arctic snow, when the Artic snow turns to rocks, then the Arctic ice begins to sprout green plants.
.
Moving right along here, we come to: How to measure ice thickness.
.
I am amazed —I really am— that nobody thought to use sound transducers as echo devices to determine the thickness of the ice. Additionally, a sonogram could well be recorded which would reveal more things about the ice than just thickness.
.
Then of course there’s that statement about ‘drilling holes to validate the radar readings.’
.
Yeah, right. A radar which was ‘calibrated’ priorly needs to be validated by a process which is —at best— ‘iffy?’ Isn’t that a bit like filling a calibrated beaker with a liquid to a specified point, and then tea-spooning the contents into another beaker?
.
Regarding batteries. You know? There are several models of hand-crank generator which would serve two purposes: Charge the batteries, and keep the hands moving to ward off frostbite by increasing blood flow. I’ll guess that was too easy …
.
Insulation problems: Haven’t any of those people ever heard of ‘aerogel?’ It’s probably the best insulation ever made. And to boot, it now pretty much available at a decent price.
.
Finally we get to the term ‘PR.’ E.L. Bernays is considered the ‘father of public relations,’ in that he coined the term.
.
Would it surprise anyone reading this that Bernays coined the term in order to otherwise not employ the term ‘propaganda.’
.
Is it any wonder that the first two letters of ‘propaganda’ are ‘PR?’
.
What a long strange trip it’s been …
Ross
April 10, 2009 12:18 pm
A possible test for how far north these [insert polite derogative] people actually are.
Has anyone seen an image with a, more or less, vertical object and which is casting a strong shadow that would be inconsistent with a hi latitude photo?
One would expect, for example, a photo of a flagpole at a hi latitude to cast a very long shadow consistent with a low sun. An image with a much shorter shadow would indicate a higher sun/lower latitude [or an image made closer to arctic summertime]
As far as the total fraud conjecture goes, if this were true wouldn’t one expect them to report much milder [warmer/less cold] temperatures? Or maybe camels drinking water from an oasis?
This not to say that I think they are contributing anything to climate science; I don’t and their project is, in IMO a total waste of resources and possibly human life.
note to webmaster or ?: why is derogative>/i> underlined as if misspelled?
Keith
April 10, 2009 1:46 pm
The more I explore the pictures from the Catlin website, the more problems I have with some of the groupings. There are repeated copies of the same picture under different groups, some with headers, some without. It makes it hard to work any chronology out of the pictures.
For example, we have pictures “from the ice”. When were these transmitted to the Ops Base to be put on the internet? If after the initial drop off, then why have no more recent pictures been uploaded? Surely some other photo op worthy events have occurred in the intervening 6 weeks since they were dropped off?
There are copies of the same picture of (I am assuming) Pen (he seems to be the one of the three with an extra yellow jacket he likes to wear) loading a sledge listed in both the Drop off picture set and in the prep in Resolute Bay set. Which was it?
Another problem I have is why don’t they have a “Where are they now?” type page, at least showing daily progress on a map. It should be easy to compile from the GPS data from their satellite phone. The Ops Base says they communicate with the using an Iridium phone, so there should be data available. And somebody has been sending out the videos we are seeing on bbc.com from the ice, right? True, the only one from outside the tent was done at night, so we haven’t seen anything to show what hard work they are having to do. Personally, I would love to see Pen drilling a hole for us, and more of the scenery. Maybe it has been too cold except in the tent, or on that one night, to shoot any video or use Martin’s camera for stills?
Cassanders
April 10, 2009 3:16 pm
@Carsten Arnholm
The ice-drill could probably have been smaller diameter just for metering ice thickness, but they also want to be able to lower their mini-CTD.
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
Robert David Graham,
You said, “The database query has a bug that only pulls the first 3000 entries from the database. The site was correctly reporting live data until that 3000 entry limit was reached. After that point, the data appeared static and unchanging, like a file.”
I run a website, ace-exchange.com which makes heavy use of swf charts fed by database queries with php scripts and I can say categorically that there are no such natural limits of 3000 entries. Our stock charts are updated every minute with live data and never reach any limits. They have operated in this manner for a year and a half now, handling far more data than the expeditions charts have. My charts would have crashed in the first few days of operations with such limiting bugs.
Jack Green
April 10, 2009 4:17 pm
OK Anthony. I have contacts in Air Sea rescue in the Arctic. I will put some feelers out and see if there have been otter flights out onto the ice out of Resolute. It should be big news to the locals that another expedition is staging out of their backyard. You’re right don’t jump to conclusions until there is proof. The circumstantial evidence is building you must agree; however. Fantastic web site, well run and classy, smart, practical people as well as credentialed scientists troll around here. Keep it up and thanks. The truth needs to be told and we need to hold these people accountable.
I’m looking at the videos now and not seeing the trees, have they edited the clips, or reshot them?
MartinGAtkins
April 10, 2009 5:10 pm
In this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival.
Who writes their stuff?
Bill wrote this and from the table it looks like they didn’t have enough light to fly until March 8th or so. I could be reading this table wrong but it needs to be studied.
No, that’s my table.
The starting point is a couple degrees south, so that means the sur rises a few days earlier.
The starting point for the Ice Team was sounth that of the Floating Support Base, but I’ll just consider the Ice Team’s start, which is 81.41N 129.48W according to http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Departure. (I think ‘.’ means decimal and not a separator for minutes.) The Canadian date was Feb 28th, I’ve added that to the nearby Sundays below: 2009 Catlin starting point, Latitude 81.41 Longitude 129.48
Date Rise Set Light Civil Naut Astro Decln Height
Feb 22 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -9.92 -1.33
Feb 28 9:21A 2:20P 5:00 2:48 5:36 **:** -7.67 0.92
Mar 1 9:04A 2:36P 5:32 2:42 5:32 **:** -7.29 1.30
Mar 8 7:31A 4:06P 8:34 2:22 5:47 **:** -4.59 4.00
Mar 15 6:13A 5:20P 11:07 2:24 **:** **:** -1.83 6.76
Mar 22 4:57A 6:32P 13:35 2:49 **:** **:** 0.93 9.52
So on the departure date, they had five hours of daylight with the sun getting all of 1 degree above the horizon. With some refraction tossed in, the space between noontime sun and the horizon would be only about two sun diameters. They would also have about 3 hours between sunset and the end of civil twilight, which is about when you need headlights on when driving. The low sun would make the texture of the ice stand out, which would be a help for the pilot.
The Sun’s motion get weirder and weirder as you get close to either pole!
In the above table length is HH:MM of daylight, civil is length of civil twilight (Sun 0 to 6 degrees below the horizon), nautical is 0-12, astro is 0-18.
coalsoffire
April 10, 2009 7:54 pm
MartinGAtkins (17:10:16) :
In this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival.
Who writes their stuff?
People suffering from chronic hypothermia.
JohnD
April 10, 2009 8:35 pm
Stunning stuff.
Thank you all at WUWT so much.
Ray B
April 10, 2009 10:19 pm
Someone asked about the trees on the frozen jacket video.. I am not positive that is what they are, but look for yourself. Here is a snapshot pointing out where to look. When he bumps the tent at 1:19 or 1:20 it opens up and it looks like the leafless crown of a tree through the crack in the tent flaps. And again, are they really in such a leaky tent in the Arctic? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962021.stm http://s693.photobucket.com/albums/vv299/665345/
Jack Green
April 11, 2009 7:37 am
Ric:
I watched the drop off video and they are flying in light conditions consistent with your sun calculations. After watching some youtube videos of Kenn Borek landings “these pilots are really good”. I searched for any videos and or pictures that KBA people may have posted recently independent of the Catlin Web Propaganda web site. No luck. I guess I could search on pilot names and see if they have any facebook sites. That’s next.
Ray B: “Here is a snapshot pointing out where to look.”
No, that is more likely to be the tail of an elephant. I’ve seen it several times!
koolahtah
April 11, 2009 11:50 am
I live in the Canadian Arctic and the Catlin Expedition is legit…well by legit I mean they are actually on the ice in the Arctic Ocean. That being said the scientific community up here (the real scientists) refer to them as Edu-Tainers. The website is all the proof of the poof you need. In the end of the day, these guys (and gal) are really just adventures under the guise of research. When they do not reach their goal, they can blame global warming for their ultimate failure (talk about cover your ass when spending a couple of million of Catlin’s money). They just want bragging rights to say they were the first to reach the pole from a position on the Arctic Ocean as opposed to the usual route from Ward Hunt Island on the top of Ellesmere Island. So this has nothing to do with research, it;s all about 15 minutes of fame, and having their NASCAR winter jumpsuits pay for them to do it.
Glenn
April 11, 2009 12:14 pm
Jack Green (07:47:09) :
“I wonder if the US Navy is near the Catlin Expedition right now. It’s not clear when the photo was taken. I’m not sure this is important but it is cool and in the arctic recently.”
Not if Catlin is where they claim, around 400 miles from the Pole. From Prudhoe to the Pole is over a thousand miles, 200 less would place the sub around 800 miles from the Pole. They would be around 400 miles from Catlin.
“ICEX is a two-week training exercise about 200 miles from the north coast of Alaska, near Prudhoe Bay. ” http://www.navy.mil/list_single.asp?id=69910
Glenn
April 11, 2009 12:33 pm
koolahtah,
What do you make of all the complaining about cold, freezing tents and sleeping bags and such? I’ve camped/hunted in sub-zero weather/snow in minus 0 F weather and just do not see it as that much of a big deal. -35C they report now is probably the low, that’s almost short sleeve weather, and a good tent could be heated to tropical conditions in a heartbeat.
Jack Green
April 11, 2009 1:23 pm
Thanks Koolatah. Please help Anthony out here with updates of any information or pictures you can provide of these guys. I agree fully that this is a PR stunt not a scientific endeavor. Thanks again.
koolahtah
April 11, 2009 4:28 pm
Glenn,
Thanks for the question. I would also like to state I’m not against taking a challenge such as walking t the Pole on foot. I think it takes some serious courage to do it. Walking to work in -40 can be a challenge some days, so without a doubt, there complaining is likely warranted, however they deserve this, because IMO their expedition is just plain stupid and pointless. Their original launch point was Barrow, Alaska which is totally insane. Barrow, Alaska to the North Pole? Whisky Tango Foxtrot! Once they likely realized…or likely someone said, “you want to do what?” they changed to a second start point. (I should mention I’ve been following this ongoing saga since Fall of 08). The second start point was on the ice, essentially the same route from Barrow, however taking off a huge chuck of millage, not to mention a whole lot of swimming. The final one, which is the one they are on now was brought closer to land. I can only specualte as to why, however I suppose someone in Ken Borek Air Ltd who flew them out onto the ice and resupply them, out of Resolute, NU said…”you want to do what?”.
Sorry I went off on a tangent, back to your question. Dragging your sorry ass out of out of a sleeping bag in -40 is not a treat…especially after pulling all that unessential and likely now defective science equipment which may or may not been properly tested for arctic conditions doesn’t help things. Also being inside one of their tents for the short times that they are, is not likley to tropical. They won’t be suntanning in there, that’s for sure. Constant -40 temperatures after a certain period of banging a bashing will break anything down, especially ones body. I can only compare it to walking around in an old school dive suit when walking around on a cold (-30 and lower). As for the short sleeves, with weather in the Arctic latitudes, it does not begin until +7 to +8 Celsius.
So in all fairness, Catlin Arctic Scurvy…yes scurvy are likely suffering from fatigue and freezing their asses off, due to dragging non essential B.S. twitter based technologies (which will become their undoing) because in the Arctic, you do not waste energy. They seem to be wasting way to much energy.
Steve Keohane (07:04:38) : From personal observation, my breath shows at about 50 F and below.
Although it depends also on the Relative humidity of the surrounding air (if high, breath water vapor would condense), human breath condensation begins at about 41 °F (5 °C). So it’s true that if RH of air is at least 25%, we could experience visible breath condensation at10 °C (50 F); for example, when I lean over the packed meats gondola in the store, which is at 6 °C (42.8 F) and its RH is about 75%.
Anthony, the comments following the article in your first link were great! I read ’em all. It appears that the British public knows “Rupert Nigel Pendrill Hadow” a lot better than we do.
And the Straight Dope answer was, as usual, straight to the point.
Hahaha… I haven’t noticed before, but the graph on the EKG (ECG) inside the heart is running in the opposite way. Their hearts are functioning. Normal notches sequence is P wave, Q wave, R wave, S wave, S-T segment, and S wave. The small animations sequence is just the opposite… 🙂
Unbelievable……..Gore’s Styrofoam glacier, Mann’s inverted temperature proxy, Hansen’s “adjusted” temperature records and now this.
What’ll end up happening is that this will be exposed as a hoax, but all will be forgiven as these “crusaders” braved the publicity to “raise public awareness”……………same as The Goracles movie……filled with inaccuracies, (if not outright lies), but the “message” is clear…….and we must never shoot the messenger.
These “poor”, “misguided” individuals should be applauded for shining the spotlight on this impending worldwide catastrophe.
Now, I’ve got to go mow the lawn or feed the cat or something.
Typo alert.
FIXED thanks
Base of the neck!
Perhaps the entire exercise is a sham? Like the moon walks according to the conspiracy theorists?
If so, we can have the complete results of their “measurements” now, can’t we?
I hope they are alright. We can laugh at the scientific absurdity of their
publicity stuntexpedition, but their lives are not a laughing matter.I think they loop a time slice on the web site, and then capture new measurements every few hours or so.
REPLY: then why not say so?
This is bothersome on many levels, but let’s pick the most humane. Is there anyway of tracking whether they are actually okay, healthwise?
Yes, I just confirmed your observations. One plausible explanation I can think of is that they are no longer receiving the biometric data from one or more of the members of the expedition, but don’t want to advertise the fact, so they created a loop.
I think they pooped their sensors and are embarassed to tell.
REPLY: that would still leave other sensors like heartbeat intact. – Anthony
Tough questions, but I have to ask. Is it possible that these folks are martyring themselves on this expedition, for the cause of AGW? Or worse, that their handlers are allowing them to continue their foolish quest, even at great risk to their lives?
Cold remains a very dangerous threat to humans. And yet all we hear about is AGW, even when there is such an obvious and persistent decline in global temps.
“Steven Goddard (14:50:12) :
I think they loop a time slice on the web site, and then capture new measurements every few hours or so.”
If this were the case, shouldn’t the pattern change when you load a previous-day’s data? What would be the point of letting you load data for the previous day if the display was simply fed the same time-interval loop regardless of the day selected?
Confirmed. It’s possible to set up a Flash .swf file that starts off with the same numbers each time and then uses a auto-refreshing random number generator within a tight margin after that.
Hey, we are all worried that they are OK.
Who says they are any further North than Scunthorpe??
“Katlab (14:54:08) :
This is bothersome on many levels, but let’s pick the most humane. Is there anyway of tracking whether they are actually okay, healthwise?”
This may sound awfully jaded, but is there any way of confirming whether they are actually there at all?
Capricorn 1?
They don’t have them sync’d either – it just starts at the first number in the series when the client loads, and then loops through the static dataset. Open a browser to the bio page, and after a few of the numbers have cycled, open another – the two are never in sync, they each just cycle 1 to n and start over again. They could at least have gone to the effort of blasting the same fake number(s) to open clients at the same time. Tsk tsk, sloppy sloppy.
Well when that data was correct, poor ole pen was teetering on stage three hypothermia… Not a good thing if yer core temp goes down too 32, yah get the warm fuzzies and all you want to do is curl up in a ball and go too sleep.
But as the data is obviously has nothing to do with their physical condition, who knows
I think they are healthy, and you make too much out of this. Of course this is for the public, not scientific. Like the adoption of polar bears where no polar bear is adopted but the money collecting and politically very influential non-governmental organization WWF does well. The other day the Catlin team is plastic toys in our Corn Flakes… Like milk in the bottom of our plates of milk.
So lets not be mean but hoping they are well and healthy …when the polar bears shows up!
–
If it’s okay, although it’s offtopic, an interesting political article about UN:s sacral commandments for Copenhagen and a carbon free world [snip] order:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=323046044706313
Only slightly OT: Back on the 17th of March, a WUWT post entitled “Another shocked polar explorer” included a tracking map for the first dozen days. It show the backwards drift from day 6 to day 12. Is there a newer version of this map?
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/np-icequest-map.png
I could not find any ‘live’ map on the Catlin site. How is the ice drift affecting them currently? I’ve seen some notes here that it may be adding to their progress which I would find surprising unless they’ve been crossing an area that has been stretching out. Is it? Regardless of how far they’ve trekked or drifted, what is their current position along the entire distance they’re trying to cover?
Thanks Anthony, for all your work here, and thanks to the many other contributors as well.
If there was a simple straightforward explanation, why not just give the explanation up front? In my estimation this expedition, which includes all the sponsors and the prince, has lost what little credibility it had.
Classic rut, hiking across a barren expance of ice for months on end will do that to a person…same old same old same old day.
My email to info@catlinarcticsurvey.com
Sir/Madam,
I notice that whenever I log into the real time biometrics page http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx the same sequence of, for example, Pen Hadow’s core temperatures, always occours. I find it hard to believe that every time I visit the page, the team members are all undergoing the exact same physiological experiences as during the previous visit.
Or is this all a fraud, a hoax. What proof do you have that there is actually anyone in the Arctic at all?
One report I read (perhaps here or a link from here) noted they were exibiting signs of chronic hypothermia. Not something to play with. Assuming they are really where they say they are, I hope they’re ok.
Can anyone say, ‘cooking the books?’
Who needs real data when fictional data works so well supporting The Cause?
I’m sure these temperature readings are quite “robust” and verified by other studies…. which are also….. robust….
May I suggest reading Viktor Pelevin’s: Omon Ra? It is a short book but could offer a nice counterpoint to the Catlin mission…
This will be very *inconvenient* when they come out with their book. Kudos on a perfect discovery for a skeptics’ site.
AKD (15:01:37) :
I think they pooped their sensors and are embarassed to tell.
REPLY: that would still leave other sensors like heartbeat intact. – Anthony
Polar bears ate those and pooped them, too. Also very embarrassing. One way or the other, this all comes back to poop.
Poop in, poop out.
Nathan Hale said before he was hung by the British that he regrets that he had only one life to give for his country. These people can say they gave their life if they lose it for the purpose of enslaving the masses by the few elites. The control of the many by the false science of agw. This has never been about science but about money and control of every facet of human life. Where one person gave his life for freedom they are risking their life foe state domination. How pathetic.
Perhaps when the data stream goes out of range of acceptable variation, the software begins to loop old data. I hope the real data isn’t pulse 0, respiration 0, core temperature -30 C.
Perhaps we could mount a 2 week Sceptics expedition to Bali to check if Global warming was having an impact on the serving temperature of Beer?
It would be as useful.
We could call it “Not the Catlin Expedition”.
Hmm….. They are actually out on the ice are they?…… and not tucked away in a warm base camp in Canada pretending to be intrepid arctic explorers?
Don’t want to sound too cynical. But I have little trust in people who have been found to have made things up….. You start wondering what else they made up as well.
….. Then of course there is their ice data….. I wonder how good that is now?
I noticed this a week ago and the numbers haven’t changed since.
I imagine it is not really possible to transmit the biotelemetry data on a continous basis from the Arctic. I also imagine the Team does not want to be wearing the sensors all the time (and having to semi-strip-down each day at -40C to put them on).
I imagine they did record the data at some point and sent the data along with the plane after the first re-supply mission. It is clear that most of the pictures from the ice pack were also sent aboard the plane after the first re-supply rather than transmitted.
This isn’t the Apollo mission after all. It does, however, raise the question of what is publicity versus what is real.
The site no longer shows their progress. I suppose this data did not show what they wanted so they just eliminated it.
This expedition will most likely come to an end very soon. Maybe they will say something like this “The ice is so thin with one year old ice the expedition was forced to end thei journey”. or something like that,
I find this entire discussion distasteful. If these people are really where they say they are then they are obviously in danger. The arctic is no place for making a publicity stunt. Even people who do foolish things do not deserve to die. I sincerely hope that somebody sane is monitoring these foolish people. It reminds of the book “Into thin Air” and the idiotic things people do when they are half frozen and brains numb with cold. On Everest people have just sat down, given up and a few hours later they are, of course, dead. I recall one poor foolish chap, radioed his wife (with child) while he sat down and died.
Hey Anthony,
People can correct me but even in perfect conditions I believe your body temp changes more than that. Hence we sweat or shiver. Didn’t you post that they are slurring their speech, that means core temp should have dropped quite a bit. Just doesn’t seem right.
Ooooh, I’ll volunteer for the “Not the Catlin Expedition”. FINALLY! Some science that we can use.
Possible candidates for the Darwin Awards I’d say. That’s if they are really anywhere they say they are. Sounds like the whole thing could be faked. Complete bs anyway.
So where are the bears?
I was just looking through the sponsors for the Catlin mission, and here is what I found:
23 Sponsors
5 Financial and insurance
4 Carbon trading and environmental groups (the big oil of the green movement???)
The Prince’s May Day Network
The Prince’s May Day Network is the UK’s largest group of businesses of all sizes and from all sectors who have pledged to take action to reduce their carbon emissions. Founded by HRH the Prince of Wales, the Network empowers these businesses to share the experiences, challenges and business benefits of carbon reduction. The Catlin Arctic Survey team will broadcast from the ice to the third Prince’s May Day Summit on climate change, on 1st May 2009
Climate Friendly
‘Independently ranked number one by the Carbon Offset Watch survey, Climate Friendly is committed to achieving real emissions reductions and supporting renewable energy by investing in only the highest quality, Gold Standard and Voluntary Carbon Standard projects.’
Green Guardian
The largest environmental awareness campaign in South London, the Green Guardian initiative is a unique partnership between Newsquest South London, the leading media company in the area, south London borough councils and commercial businesses and organisations.
Launched in 2006, the aim of the initiative is to provide environmental news and information through Newsquest South London’s paper titles and websites. The Green Guardian awards give public recognition and thanks to all those across South London that are taking steps to reduce their environmental footprint.
ECX
ECX is the premier marketplace for trading carbon emissions, providing the focal point for the majority of trading in the recently developed emissions or carbon markets.
The rest are the usual assortment of sponsors, their law firms, equipment and clothing suppliers, transportation etc.
Could this mission be biased from the start? It seems at least 4 of these 23 sponsors will benefit in some way if the data collected supports AGW!
I have not seen anybody mention this. When they first gave “Live from the ice”, there was apparent telemetry for ice thickness. This has never been transmitted. Now we are supposedly getting the medical data, but the ice thickness data has completely disappeared; it actually never appeared at all. Am I being cynical when I speculate that the Catlin expedition dont want anyone to see the raw data on ice thickness? That they wish to “process” it before making the results known? Just a thought.
re: a few comments, I don’t get how freezing to death makes one an AWG martyr (no way to spin THAT).
They may die for not being plucked out of there in time by the team’s operational command, say, for the hope that the weather turns, and puts The Artic Sea Ice Meltdown Tragedy Tour back on script, but that would be murder, not martyr.
kurt,
I thought about them not being there, but if they weren’t there. The blogs wouldn’t be about how cold it is. It would be more global warming stuff, but you’ve got to wonder. Throw doubt on one thing, everything becomes subject to question.
Edward Mitchell (18:08:01) : “The Catlin Arctic Survey team will broadcast from the ice to the third Prince’s May Day Summit on climate change, on 1st May 2009.”
And the broadcast will be: “Mayday! Mayday! Get us the hell out of here!”
Can we start a donation button to fund a Caitlin Survey Project? Land helicopters a mile or two ahead of them, wave at them (in shirtsleeves) as they go past, record time and location, note any barbeques or proximity to buildings, then move ahead again. And, yes, I do know we’d need a town-sized base to keep helicopters moving in the Arctic. But we’re monitoring Science!
I’d bet the batteries died. They tried to over tech the mission. Or a more plausible explanation from Star Trek (pick any series, they all did it) they are stuck in a time warp. Like the movie ‘Groundhog Day’, each time they drift back, the data starts over.
Jim Cripwell (18:10:13) :
“I have not seen anybody mention this. When they first gave “Live from the ice”, there was apparent telemetry for ice thickness. This has never been transmitted. Now we are supposedly getting the medical data, but the ice thickness data has completely disappeared; it actually never appeared at all. Am I being cynical when I speculate that the Catlin expedition dont want anyone to see the raw data on ice thickness? That they wish to “process” it before making the results known? Just a thought.”
This is more curious IMO than the biometric prop stunt. Why did they set up the website to show realtime ice thickness data in the first place, if they knew the data would be sent in another direction and not available till after the melt season ended?
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hnm6QA1av0WvxKQFkkoNH4kZTEqQ
“Hadow and his team, who are due to set off on or around February 24, will be dragging with them SPRITE, a radar which measures the thickness of ice every 10 centimetres throughout the trip.
The radar readings will then be fed back to Professor Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, who is leading the analysis effort.
Hadow and his team will be able to offer a provisional snapshot of how long the polar ice cap will last when they reach the North Pole at the end of May but Maslowski’s authoritative findings will not be available until September.”
Groundhog day.
This basically means that not one iota of information that comes from this “expedition” or its support team can be trusted. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Zilch.
If part is faked for show, then all parts are suspect.
Great catch everyone.
This needs to get to a mainstream reporter ASAP.
“Hadow and his team will be able to offer a provisional snapshot of how long the polar ice cap will last when they reach the North Pole at the end of May but Maslowski’s authoritative findings will not be available until September.”
Of course, by then it will be obvious to everyone how the melt season progressed. How will they spin the anecdata if the melt is the about the same or less than 2008? How will they spin a reversal of the trend?
Whether the data is looped and then new data is downloaded or any other possible explanation to try and account for a set of repeating numbers which do not coincide from one computer to another, yet start at a fixed point and then run through the sequence points to artifical data.
One important point then is that whether this data is artificial or not (providing there is some sort of explanation for the repetition aside from fake data) the data appears to be artificial and there should be an explanation forthcoming. In the meantime, those responsible for monitoring the data, updating the website, collecting and cashing the checks which must be forthcoming should post a note retracting the data and remove it from the website until all is working as it should.
It looks as if most people, even when confronted with obvious false data, really want to believe that this is at heart a noble project. That sentiment should be taken advantage of while it lasts.
Given the good nature of most of the folks observing this it seems sort of sad to think that the most likely explanation for all of those little mysteries is that this is simply a drama to draw attention to conclusions aready drawn. On the other hand, this seems to point up the current degree of “science” used in the climate change debate.
Perhaps the biotelemetry data after receiving it is modelled and corrected by the same computer model that predicted that the arctic will be ice free this year.
Kind off like the ocean temperatures if you can’t find warming model yourself some.
Pen Hadow models his Cranial-Rectal Inversion Attitude Adjuster for the public: click
jeez (18:44:57) is right on. When someone is caught lying, it means one thing for sure: he is a liar. At this point we can’t trust anything they say.
Since we’re all laughing at England’s Prince Charles, perhaps an English newspaper might fancy a write-up of this rather sad affair. Surely the good Prince will pull the plug on these hooligans and their shenanigans. Do the right thing England.
Hail Britania!
Mike Bryant
MikeW (15:38:20) :
How is the ice drift affecting them currently? I’ve seen some notes here that it may be adding to their progress which I would find surprising unless they’ve been crossing an area that has been stretching out. Is it?
I use the following site to monitor drift of the arctic ice, the results are consistent with their reports. Initially strong flow against their direction of travel, then no drift, followed by drift towards the pole. If I were them I’d be ‘aiming off’ to the left to make the best progress.
http://cersat.ifremer.fr/data/discovery/by_product_type/gridded_products/psi_amsr_drift
Here is something pequiliar. They are using a seacat CTD system for their water data collection. Something doesn’t look right with the housing for the temp sensor. HWGW (Hand Warmer Global Warming?????)
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/technology_seacat
http://www.seabird.com/products/spec_sheets/19plusdata.htm
Compar them and see if you can spot the jerry rig!
It is a nice MODEL of the biotelemetry, just as good as observation!
Hrrumph!
Those numbers are built into the flash swf. There is no attempt to contact the server to update the .swf.
For the technical: A swf that was updating real time would have to contact the server for the latest data. It would do this using a XMLHTTPRequest object which is the wizardry behind AJAX, or it would attempt to open a direct socket which generally gets the browser squawking.
My firefox firebug developer add-on can detect no attempt to contact the server.
This swf was never designed to be able to get live data.
(and it is a bugger to get right)
If, on seeing the .fla, this swf came from, I am wrong, I’ll be happy to retract.
But until then my accusation of deliberate deception stands.
Isn’t this the same thing as having somebody else pee in the cup?
So, anybody email Maslowski yet? His CV looks pretty good, that is he doesn’t look like a con man even though he is a modeler, but his expertise is beyond my ken. I’d like to see his answer the questions: Are those guys really out there and transmitting data on ice thickness and age to your office? Show me the data.
drat: “his answer to the question.”
This silly expedition seems to be an apt metaphor for the entire AGW cause: doubtful premise; manipulated or non-existent data; results not matching the theory, denial of reality, manipulation of the media, support by the ignorant and venal etc. etc. Ultimately the truth will be revealed; with consequent ridicule of the movment’s leaders. The dupes will mostly disappear – like the Nazis’ supporters did after WW2, and Mao’s after the “Great Leap Forward”.
sigh
Hmm. Seems like someone was caught with their hand in the cookie jar.
Still, I would like these people to come home safe and sound.
This expedition is an apt metaphor for the entire AGW movement.
Again with the numbers. How are you supposed to debate
the science when they manipulate the data? I don’t even
trust the satellite data any more.
It seems Martin and Ann are always excited… For example, Ann’s cardiac frequency goes up to 164.7 beats per minute. Normal CF (without exercising and depending of body’s requirements of oxygen) is 60-80 per minute. On the other hand, Martin has always a cardiac frequency above 90 beats per minute. I think Ann and Martin are suffering some kind of arctic fever.
Here’s the press release from Hidalgo which provided the EquivitalTM body worn physiological monitoring system.
http://www.prlog.org/10205861-catlin-arctic-survey-uses-equivital-physiological-monitoring-system.html
“The Equivital™ unit will continuously record and transmit the wearer’s physiological data, which will be sent to the survey vessel’s onboard Central Data Unit before being transmitted back to the UK HQ. In particular, core body temperatures will be recorded and sent back to track team members’ physical and mental responses when exposed to extended periods in extremely low temperatures. What this ultimately means is, at the beginning of the expedition, when ambient air temperatures are still as low as -50C, website visitors can witness first hand the detrimental effect that such conditions have on the human body. “
Jim Arndt (17:45:06):
Hey Anthony,
People can correct me but even in perfect conditions I believe your body temp changes more than that. Hence we sweat or shiver. Didn’t you post that they are slurring their speech, that means core temp should have dropped quite a bit. Just doesn’t seem right.
Yes, human body’s temperature could vary more than that according with the environment temperature and the delay on organism’s response. However, there is a highly sensitive feedback biosystem which ammends immediately those sharp changes of temperature. Here a fragment from my thesis on Biophysics:
There are several channels of heat transfer between the human body and its environment. Some channels end in the corium, internal with respect to the epidermis; other channels “cross” muscles, fat layer, epidermis and hair, until reaching the interface or viscous boundary layer, which connects the body system with the environment and where the heat is transferred to the surrounds by conduction, convection, radiation and evaporation, if the body is within air, or by conduction, convection and radiation, if it is submerged in water.
Hmm, managed to isolate a swf and it is trying to contact something (dev.indiapapa,tv for those interested). Next try and see whether it gets a text file 🙁
Phil. (19:18:49) :
If I were them I’d be ‘aiming off’ to the left to make the best progress.
If I were them I’d be doing my damnedest to make sure that I was not going to be made into a martyr for the cause: I’d get on the next supply plane. Actually, I’d have simply looked at the satellite data and never left the comfort of my office.
Mark
completely off topic (but hey, we never get an “open” thread around here 🙂
Has NASA ever done this:
Take a picture of a place, say the Orion Nebula, and six months later take another picture of the same spot, and then combine them as a stereoscopic image to make basically a 3D picture of how it would look if your eyes were as far apart as the orbit of Earth?
Wow that’s fascinating! I wonder if we’ll hear some justification/excuse from Catlin support team!
Nasif Nahle (19:49:48) :
“It seems Martin and Ann are always excited… I think Ann and Martin are suffering some kind of arctic fever.”
Either that or they are sharing the same sleeping bag.
Amazing. I was actually checking this page often, being surprised that his body is only at 33 deg C. And the numbers looked similar all the time. But I was never able to see that they’re exactly identical all the time, as a function of the time from the loading.
For an expedition that pretends to measure temperature-related things scientifically, it is not exactly encouraging to see that the procedure to measure their own temperatures and pulse rates is based on a complete fraud.
Jack (19:38:48) said: “This silly expedition seems to be an apt metaphor for the entire AGW cause: doubtful premise; manipulated or non-existent data; results not matching the theory, denial of reality, manipulation of the media, support by the ignorant and venal etc. etc.”
And ultimately torpedoed by global hypothermia.
There is an Arctic Buoy 60-day drift map here:
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_track-map.html
I don’t see any Lat/Long here so it appears it would take some effort to plot the team’s progress, or lack thereof, on a map like this.
Well, I hope my comment is useful but in my analysis of the biofeedback html I am finding that the swf (the flash component of the page) is not the requester of the data but rather consumes ajax information via javascript. Therefore, it could be possible that the page is requesting live data from another site and feeding it to the swf via javascript (although I have already checked that possibility and the data is coming from off site, but it appears to be “canned” data).
I believe I have verified that the following are the calls being made from the page per “explorer”:
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=pen
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=ann
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=martin
You can verify the data without the querystring: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php for the total xml file.
I have saved a copy of this xml and will check to see if it changes.
I appreciate the good people here who drive out the corruption to truth and science. This site is preserving my sanity!
REPLY: Thank you Shawn, this appears to be the root data. I’ve loaded the http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php file and it appears to indeed be hard coded. For those juts joining this discussion, the Catlin website has a footer at the bottom of each page that identifies the website developer:
Produced by http://www.indigopapa.com
And that is where the XML data file requested by the flash used to drive the “biometrics” page comes from. I suppose it is possible that this data file would be regularly updated, but the fact that they have a date selector on the biometrics web page that does nothing, and calls this same file again and again points to a hard wiring of this data.
WUWT readers, especially those with flash and XML experience, please weigh in and point out anything you see that either supports or refutes this conjecture. – Anthony
The unusual thing here is that although it looks like the temperature data has been generated by a computer model, a small cooling trend is observed ?
“The unusual thing here is that although it looks like the temperature data has been generated by a computer model, a small cooling trend is observed ?”
LOL! Quote of the week!
“For an expedition that pretends to measure temperature-related things scientifically, it is not exactly encouraging ”
It is the silence that is what is most disturbing. But maybe it is a time thing. They appear to be based in London so they won’t be waking up for a few more hours. Give them time to respond. The entire planet doesn’t operate on US time.
real life Groundhog Day!
The good news is that when Bill Murray was stuck in the cycle he couldn’t kill himself if he tried.
“Why would anyone strap a “hand warmer” to a device designed to measure temperature?”
Why would anyone put a temperature measurement device directly in the path of jet exhaust at an airport?
I am seeing a pattern. And it is more than just about temperature. There seems to be an entire culture of making the numbers justify the agenda. The latest manifestation is here. Since the Arbitron device has been out and accurately measures what people actually listen to ( as opposed to what they SAY they listen to with the diary system ) the ratings have been taking a politically incorrect turn. So the answer is to shoot the messenger. Get rid of the evil bearer of the bad news and get the data back “on message”. If real data won’t validate your agenda, you just have to make it up, I suppose. “Adjust it” or place thermometers in the middle of parking lots, whatever it takes to make the data reflect the agenda. And it is more than just climate. It is a culture of lying … the end justifies the means. Sad.
Does anyone have access to flight control radar that covers the flights of the twin otter or able to pull flight plans to see if any actual flight plans have been filed for their resupply missions?
Anyone know anyone that works at the home station of their resupply otter that can confirm they have actually made any resupply flights as indicated in their blogs?
Has their twin otter fueled to make the alleged flights?
Was this project funded in any part by Bernie Maddoff ? ( just kidding —- sort of )
Where is a good investigative reporter when you need one?
Larry
Lubos Motl (20:46:27) :
Amazing. I was actually checking this page often, being surprised that his body is only at 33 deg C.
Hi, Lubos… That has an explanation: The temperature sensors were placed directly on the skin, not into corporal cavities. For that reason, the reported temperatures are not the actual temperature of their bodies, but the temperature of the skin on which thermometric sensors were placed. The mean temperature of the skin in warm latitudes is 33 °C, which makes your observation on a quasi-constant temperature under an atmosphere at -30 °C very interesting. For example, if I am in front of a fan, the temperature of my skin would be 30.4 °C; if I move to an area far away from the fan, where the fresh air doesn’t reach me, my skin’s temperature would rise up to 31.3 °C. At this moment, the temperature of my chest skin (clothed body and on the same area on where the sensors were placed to the arctic team) is 35.1 °C, while the air temperature is 26.4 °C.
They were “projecting” when they said “oil company shill”. Is it beneath us to say “carbon credit shill”? After hearing “oil company shill” for thirty years, and never having seen any actual money from ANY oil company, it sure is tempting. Has anyone noticed that Shell Oil is one of the sponsored links on the Discovery Channels’ website? Apparently, we are to do as they say, not as they do. Still, I am worried about what these “grape-nuts” will do once the AGW scam has been defrocked. What other mischievous little cookie jars will they be into next? Clearly, their deceitfulness knows no bounds, so better to keep them where we can see them, than to not know what they are up to. Better the “devil you know”, etc…….
I’ll give them a break for having to fake the biotelemetry on a web site. Sure there should be a disclaimer about recorded bio readings that may be repleted. For all I know, it may have worked for a few days and then went teats up.
I do have to admit, that does put into question in my mind, any true data coming out of his royal Hi-ass sponsored science expedition. Where are all the Britain’s speaking on his BS( bad science)? And why don’t they have a GPS strapped to them, readings their progress each day, for at least safety reasons? I mean they took the time to put biotelemetry, but not a few bucks for video tape/digital recordings as records of their everyday journey?
This has to be one of the worst planned out expedition surviving on dumb luck or we’re all being taken for ride for the all mighty buck of AGW agenda. If anyone lives in the areas these folks reside, in a none stalking way, stake out their places and see if they have even gone anywhere?
I’m sure we’ll have live video on tape in May with low camera shots taken with the sun in the background on BBC telling us the arctic is almost free of ice and 2009 is the hottest year on record “all over the world”.
This is just getting silly, who really believes in this farce anymore?
re update #2:
the metal cover on the Seacat instrument conceals an electrical conductivity cell which is a glass tube containing electrodes that measure the conductivity of ocean water. When the instrument is deployed, water flows through the tube, as the instrument records the conductivity data. (more information than you will ever want is at the manufacturer’s site: http://www.seabird.com)
A potential problem when these devices are used in the polar regions is that once the instrument is recovered, the cell may retain water which then freezes very quickly in the much colder air temperatures. If the glass tube cracks as a result of the freezing, then the measurements will no longer be accurate. The hand warmers are presumably used after the instrument is recovered to assist in draining out any residual water before the instrument is stored.
You could ask them of course; they’d know better than I would.
I can assure Robert Wood, 15:10:28, they haven’t even been seen as far north as Scunthorpe. I live there.
I can’t believe that they are not using sat links to upload data as it is gathered!! They could have used a couple of those cuddly polar bears to carry the equipment!!
Addendum on my answer to Lubos’ post.
Amazingly, if the mean temperature of their skin is 33 °C, it means that they are losing heat disproportionately from the interior of their bodies, as if they were under a summery environment. Are you sure they are in the arctic?
The only other details concerning the source xml that is used to load the swf display is that there is no script apparent to load the files – they have to be replaced manually as far as I can determine. Also, a whois on the site results in this info
Domain name: INDIGOPAPA.TV
Administrative Contact:
Bowman, Steven
23 Old Broad Street
London, Gr London EC2N 1HQ
GB
07974565821
Technical Contact:
Bowman, Steven
23 Old Broad Street
London, Gr London EC2N 1HQ
GB
07974565821
That might be more info than anyone needs. This is the host and person who set up the website. If someone really, really wanted answers they could email Mr Bowman stevenbowman@live.co.uk
REPLY: Thanks tried that, a dead end. Here is what I got. – Anthony
Sorry, we were unable to deliver your message to the following address.
stevenbowman@live.co.uk:
Remote host said: 550 Requested action not taken: mailbox unavailable [RCPT_TO]
I feel it would be helpful if someone like Christopher Booker ran with this information to get the issue further out into the mainstream. This should have the benefit of pressuring Catlin to respond to the questions being raised.
Don S. (19:32:29) :
“So, anybody email Maslowski yet? His CV looks pretty good, that is he doesn’t look like a con man even though he is a modeler, but his expertise is beyond my ken. I’d like to see his answer the questions: Are those guys really out there and transmitting data on ice thickness and age to your office? Show me the data.”
Not a chance. Maslowski’s the one who predicts an ice-free summer by 2013 or less, and who Gore got the idea of “in five years” from. There’s too much riding on his models for any “ground truth” data to get in the way so soon. The data expected in September will support the existing data his model uses, unless ice loss is dramatically and undeniably less this summer than the last few years.
Mike Bryant (18:49:19) :
“Hadow and his team will be able to offer a provisional snapshot of how long the polar ice cap will last when they reach the North Pole at the end of May but Maslowski’s authoritative findings will not be available until September.”
“Of course, by then it will be obvious to everyone how the melt season progressed. How will they spin the anecdata if the melt is the about the same or less than 2008? How will they spin a reversal of the trend?”
Unless it is a dramatic increase, the same way AGW spins the temp, that a year or two of “variable weather” isn’t enough to reverse the trend. “This year the Arctic had an unusually cold winter and cool spring, but next year or three it will all melt…” kind of thing.
From Catlin
Wednesday, 08 Apr 2009 12:59
“The resupply flight has successfully landed and is now heading back towards Resolute.
Re-supplies (4 in total for this expedition) are scheduled well ahead of the Ice Team’s departure, but subject to change because poor weather can prevent the plane landing.
The re-supply plane is stationed at Resolute Bay in Northern Canada, and is scheduled to stop to refuel at the unmanned Isachsen air strip on Ellef Ringes Island. Total flying time from Resolute to the Ice Team’s runway is approximately five hours.
“The pilot will be in contact with the Ice Team throughout the journey to monitor weather conditions”, says London HQ Head of Operations Chip Cunliffe, who flew with the explorers to their initial drop off point on the Arctic Ice at the start of the expedition “They’ll be listening out for the sound of the engine. Re-supplies are eagerly anticipated both for the new equipment and for the human contact.” He goes on to explain that landing on an ice runway is nothing like landing on a conventional runway.
“The pilot circles six or seven times before making a final approach. When the plane first touches the ice it bounces hard several times. It’s quite an unnerving experience if you don’t know what to expect”.
The Ice Team was guided to a suitable looking runway by Radarsat 2 imagery. To ensure a safe landing for the twin-otter, the landing strip must be of an ice-thickness of more than 60cm, at least 12 metres wide and 305 metres long. The strip the team have found is in excess of 1.5m thick and some 500m long, and after several hours of knocking out some large lumps of ice, is now ready for the Twin to land.”
In the event of a landing accident do they have backup aircraft standing by? And who clears up the mess left behind?
I feel a conspiracy theory coming on here, similar to the conspiracy’s surrounding the moon landing! Did they go or didn’t they? Lol!
Off Topic
It’s official the UK Government deliberately increased Carbon emissions to improve tax revenues.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/5125422/Motorists-set-for-green-wave.html
Have e-mailed BBC world news & UK news of your findings directing them to this website. I wonder if it will appear on any news broadcasts???????
Hey I’m an optimist. Enjoy.
“The data expected in September will support the existing data his model uses, unless ice loss is dramatically and undeniably less this summer than the last few years.”
Well, there was more ice in 2008 than there was in 2009 and with measurements so far showing 2009’s ice is about a half-meter thicker than 2008 was, I would say it is now all up to the winds. If the winds keep the ice in the arctic, fine. If the winds blow the ice out into the Atlantic again like they did in 2007, the warmists are going to have a field day claiming the lack of ice was caused by a temperature change.
“Well, there was more ice in 2008 than there was in 2009”
Oops, meant “Well, there was more ice in 2008 than there was in 2007”, of course.
The European Carbon Exchange which is sponsoring this project is expecting not billions but trillions of Euros to be traded before their eyes this century. In terms of profit it is much more than the oil industry has ever seen because their making money out of thin air. They will not accept anything less than an alarmist scenario. The biggest and most profiteering traders will become the most powerful lobbyists in the world and will have the power to shut all dissent down once the big money starts rolling in. The truth won’t matter to them even if we dropped into another Dalton Minimum event.
If we think we’ll see the back of Islamic terrorism think again. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran’s most profitable export is oil. Carbon trading would cut directly into their profits. The next generation of jihadis could be sent to kill us to force out governments to stop carbon trading. And that is on top of the other reasons they think they already have.
Ceolfrith:
“the occasional red light is a good traffic calming measure”
Yeah, especially if you are waiting on a cross street. We have had synchronized traffic lights for decades. They are reporting this like it is some new brilliant idea. It has been in use in the US for decades.
Why don’t I see their breath?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962022.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962021.stm
I made a screenshot of the catlin page on the 2nd and it shows:
Per : 77.1bpm core 34.49 skin 33 17 breaths
Ann: 122.4bpm core 37.41 skin 33.9 30.4 breaths
Martin: 93.5bpm core 37.19 skin 33.4 17.4 breaths
Lots of these values are not in your data so it would appear that they have updated the data somehow since the 2nd April.
REPLY: Thanks for posting that! The data transcribed in the post here is only the first minute or two…but I find the data pairs from your screen cap in the source XML file that Shawn F. located here: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php
Open it and have a look…you’ll find 1224 at 36 comma marks into Ann”s “ecg” data, then count how many comma marks to 3741 on the next line for “coretemp” and you’ll find it is 36 also…
It appears to be the same data on April 2nd also from your screencap.
Anthony
I read early on, and I cannot find the blog post now, but sometime right before the first resupply they said that they had hoped to send real time ice data back but were having trouble with the uplink and would have to be content sending the data back by memory card at the resupply. I assumed that it was the ice data they were talking about but perhaps that pertained to the med info as well. Furthermore I bet they are having battery trouble in that sort of cold.. The bio monitors seem to need a pda or phone to send data, I seriously doubt their batteries would last if they sent continuous readings.
you know of course Pen Hadow has pulled this crap before:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html
“The British explorer Pen Hadow was rescued by plane from the North Pole yesterday – and came under immediate criticism from the emergency team “for risking lives” by the “stupid” decision to launch his Arctic mission when the pack ice was melting with the onset of spring.”
So if it was stupid in 2003 how come its so smart in 2009?? Im pretty sure even though the last name here is Haddow and in the article is Hadow, it is the same stupid person.
I was looking at this site last night…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
and it mentioned the Catlin team preparing a runway on the ice for the resupply plane. That entry has now vanished. Team had spent several hours removing lumps from the 500 meter landing site. Ice thickness was claimed to be in excess of 1.5 meters.
Now nothing !!!
I take it all back, just watched the live site for a few minutes and up popped my screenshot values. The data HAS NOT changed since the 2nd April.
What a shameful scam.
chillybean – see my reply above in your previous comment…the bio data is from a fixed file – Anthony
Heh, just dawned on me that there is another possibility. They might have contracted out all this biotelemetry stuff to a third party who simple created some data files and has ripped them off. Might have figured that if the date file is large enough, nobody will notice that it repeats. So you charge someone many thousands of dollars to provide bio data and feed them canned data you generated ahead of time. You just have to monitor the radio and make sure you switch off a stream in case something unfortunate happens to one of the members to avoid being caught out.
REPLY: The “root” datafile is being served from the website designer and provider for the entire web setup; http://www.indigopapa.tv I’ve sent them an email asking the questions. – Anthony
Why no update on the resupply. The BBC site was last updated 3 April 2009.
The landing was scheduled for 10 48 am their local time the next day.
Just a thought,
Are we sure that they actually went to the Arctic.
Could we be witnessing a re-run of The Last Voyage of Donald Crowhurst. This was when a round the world yachtsman decided that it was too difficult to actually complete the solo circumnavigation. Instead he just radioed back false positional data.
Joking of course (nervously)
“So if it was stupid in 2003 how come its so smart in 2009?? Im pretty sure even though the last name here is Haddow and in the article is Hadow, it is the same stupid person.”
That’s him. Now with Catlin expecting to be at the Pole in June, with 3 people, who likely all believe the ice is almost all going to melt this summer. Somehow I just can’t wrap my mind around believing anything these people claim, including data reports.
crosspatch,
You DO know that the “6 month apart, width of Earth’s orbit” method is how we determine the distance of distant objects, right? Of course, the problem is that the width of Earth’s orbit relative to stellar distances is not nearly enough stereo spread to get much depth perception.
To put it in perspective, 2 AUs (the distance between the Earth now and the Earth 6 months from now) compared to even Alpha Centauri (obviously our closest stellar neighbor) would be like us looking at something a mile away with our eyes 0.00001mm apart. And yes, I pulled that number completely out of thin air, but I’m pretty sure I’m in the right ballpark, IF I have enough zeroes in there.
Measuring stellar distances is accomplished by the apparent shift relative to background, while stereo vision depth perception is accomplished by differing parts of an object being visible to two different observation points.
“chillybean – see my reply above in your previous comment…the bio data is from a fixed file – Anthony”
I was checking that the fixed file had not been updated, can happen 😉
My couple of my UK co-workers have come online now but they are early risers and are connecting from their homes … so it shouldn’t be long before some people in London begin to realize the repeating data has been noticed. I would expect to hear something in the next couple of hours …. or not.
You’ve already seen the Monty Python expedition videos I posted. Back in those days it was common for comedians to make fun of the way the BBC and British explorers would spend lots of money on fanciful expeditions and adventures that achieved nothing.
Here’s Spike Milligan’s take
The Top Gear expedition to the North Pole also made fun of it all by showcasing all the gin they drank and the basketful of posh snacks and wine they took with them.
What we’re seeing with the biotelemetry data page is basically the same thing. They’ve gone and spent money on souping up their webpage and buying equipment so they can look mighty impressive and scientifically advanced to their sponsors, the media and the public. But it is all a gimmick and the expedition itself is not scientific.
A little more wierdness from Pen Hadow:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/2625521/Ryanair-boss-in-row-with-explorer-Pen-Hadow-over-emergency-landing.html
“My highest priority was to get a mask on to my son who was sitting next to me in a bemused and frightened state.”
He went on: “Mine wasn’t filling up with oxygen and neither was my son’s.
Pen, your highest priority was to get a mask on yourself, so you wouldn’t pass out before you got one on yourself. And the airbags do not “fill up”.
As a professional survivalist you should have known this, even if you needed to read emergency instructions and never listened to the attendant explaining.
Codetech
“Of course, the problem is that the width of Earth’s orbit relative to stellar distances is not nearly enough stereo spread to get much depth perception.”
ok, so use a telescope in orbit at Jupiter’s distance. It should be easy enough to make park a scope at a Jovian Lagrangian point … or Saturn … or Neptune even.
They key here is that they will keep up reporting fake telemetry from the ice until it melts, then they will be reported as dying from drowning due to AGW.
Did any team members, during the course of their broadcasts, make statements regarding their body-temperature data that had the effect of validating the computer-generated data as authentic? For instance, did they make readout by eyeball of their temperatures and discuss them? Did they play along with this charade, IOW? If so, this affair will be harder to explain away.
Looking at their equipment sponsor, Cotswold, the most extreme sleeping bag they offer has a lower comfort point of -25 C. If they are sleeping in -40 C conditions in a bag (assuming they are using the most extreme model the company carries) with a lower limit of -25C, they are significantly underequipped and whoever made the equipment decisions for this expedition should be held responsible for whatever happens to the expedition members.
Allegedly the resupply plane has arrived. Can we get a report on whether the expedition members are still alive? Are they getting new equipment?
Anthony, et al, apologies for the length.
I followed the trail as well using Whois. Shawn F. already posted about the WHOIS site info for indigopapa.tv. (Interesting, but not particularly noteworthy – http://www.indigopapa.com is redirected to http://www.indigopapa.tv/.) Shawn noted that the the owner of IndigoPapa is Steven Bowman (whois.domaaintools.com/indigopapa.com).
What I find more interesting is looking at registration dates and IP address information, and then conducting a little web archive searching.
The IP address listed for Indigopapa.tv, using the handy Reverse IP lookup, is 213.171.196.88. This, coincidentally happens to be the same IP address used for Catlinarcticsurvey.com, and Thearcticsurvey.com (currently shut down, but more on that below).
Check out the dates that the domains were registered: ‘Thearcticsurvey.com was registered on 2007-12-18’. ‘IndigoPapa.tv’ was registered on 2008-01-26. And ‘Catlinarcticsurvey.com’ was registered on 2008-08-19. Can we say… Odd?
But it keeps going. I looked up Thearcticsurvey.com to see whether there was any history of it being an actual website, and I came across this:
http://web.archive.org/web/20080207084115/http://www.thearcticsurvey.com/. Unfortunately, the site was only up for one archived day in 2008 – February 7, 2008. One wonders why it was so quickly shut down, since the Catlin site wasn’t created until the 19th of August, 2008. We know it hadn’t been up before December 12th of 2007, since that’s when it was first registered.
Perhaps I’m behind on things, or just haven’t read enough, but I didn’t know that this Arctic Survey was supposed to have happened last year… I couldn’t see any mention of this past research and efforts on their new website. Back to the Internet Wayback Machine: on the archived page is a YouTube link. So I followed that, and found that http://www.youtube.com/user/vancoarcticsurvey is the original YouTube site for the original Survey expedition. Same people, different name – the Vanco Arctic Survey. In fact, by googling that name I discovered they were supposed to have done this thing last year:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&num=20&q=vanco+arctic+survey
http://www.itwire.com/content/view/14886/1066/
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-10-16-arctic-explorers_N.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7036058.stm
It appears they were supposed to have left March 1st 2008 (assuming the captured date on the archived page is accurate, and it was to be 20 days later). I wonder what cancelled it… my guess is that the Vanco telecomm company stopped sponsoring the expedition, and so they had to cancel it for that year. Thus, now it is Catlin, and its much more spruced up.
Anyhow, the YouTube site is dated October 17, 2007 and that’s the day they posted their hilarious North Pole Ice Cap in Peril video –
Fearmongering video (Pen Hadlow, Video; Martin Hartley, Polar Bear & Walrus Photography) aside… I think they obviously followed the advice of youtube commentator PlanetThoughts and got things revamped and spruced up with ‘respectability’ for a rerun in 2009.
I do have a little experience with Flash and .fla files and web design. I am very suspicious of the looped hard-coded data. These are my thoughts: IndigoPapa does seem to have done real work, and some of it at a rather high level (London Stock Exchange, for one). If that’s the case, then at the least they’re well connected (I wonder who started the company, since it is so recent and so well placed). However, they only came into existance about 2 months, at least their website did (and they only do online stuff… so…) after the first Vanco/Catlin videos were posted on Youtube, and right after the first domain name for the expedition was created. From my searching, IndigoPapa does have a history of having clients’ files hosted in their Studio subdirectory on their domain name, so I think that’s normal for these xml files. What is more odd is that the XML files have no coding to update with new data being stored in nearby databases. Also odd is that there is no date on the file. For something as ‘scientific’ as this expedition, you’d think they’d want date/time stamps on all their data. Certainly someone could just be creating the XMl files and publishing them to the site, to be brought into the Catlin site, but as we’ve figured out that’s not happening. The files are the same for days at least. Also interesting to me is the fact that the Flash on the Catlin survey site will ALWAYS show the equipment as ‘operational’. There’s no way to update that.
Unfortunately, unless XML files have the date/time query written into the code, there’s no real way to know when the file was written without hacking the website. But it sure looks to me like someone just created something to use as a loop, and left it that way. It might not be truly intentional – perhaps they just couldn’t get the data to update the way they intended, and decided not to bother with it. But I wonder who owns this IndigoPapa company, and why they let Catlin, but no other clients, host their website on the same server. And how they got so highly placed with corporations in Britain and America without any prior online history, at least that I found.
And, as I’m finishing up this unfortunately lengthy comment, I note that I can no longer access the http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com website, although http://www.indigopapa.tv is still available and working and streaming video (do a yahoo search for indigopapa.tv). Looks like they took the Catlin survey site offline as Crosspatch apparently expected. I’m curious to see what their excuse is once the site is back up.
In closing, here’s a quote from Pen Hadow (link referenced above) when he was first interviewed by the BBC in 2007 about his expedition: “Now my level of knowledge, interest and commitment has moved me away from the adventure, and now I feel it is my social responsibility to represent her – the Arctic Ocean – as best as I am able; because she needs friends right now.” I think that about sums up the scientific integrity of this expedition.
I REFUTE YOUR CONJECTURE, with this link:
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=p'en
It’s not an “XML file”, as you claim. It’s a database query that is formatted by a script into XML.
The database query has a bug that only pulls the first 3000 entries from the database. The site was correctly reporting live data until that 3000 entry limit was reached. After that point, the data appeared static and unchanging, like a file.
The simple fix would be to change the PHP/SQL script to remove that limit, or to retrieve the last 3000 entries instead of the first 3000.
There is no malicious intent to deceive, it’s a simple coding error. They tested it, and it appeared to work for a while, until it reached that limit and stopped working.
The live data is in the database. Once they fix this bug, everything will work again.
[Reply: So when they fix this, will we be able to see their frozen breath being exhaled? ~dbstealey, mod.]
The resupply plane landed Wednesday, 08 Apr 2009 12:59
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/headline.aspx?postId=149
But they don’t say anything in the report.
Oops, the above URL does not get formatted as I want. You need to have p’en at the end, with the quote character as part of the url. Let’s see if this second attempt works:
test
Hi, I’m pretty new at programming websites myself, so if I’m talking noobspeak here, please excuse me.
But the link that points to the .xml file is actually a .php file. That means that prior to sending data to your browser, there is server-side processing going on. With php, you can access databases without people at the browser-side seeing what is going on. The output to the browser will look just as if the data was hardcoded in the file.
All this does not mean we’re seeing real data, just that the xml is probably fed with the most recent data from a mysql database. If the DB is not updated (we know they have problems sending data) and the query is sloppy, you will always get the most recent n rows when you request data for a date that is not in the DB yet.
If I’d programmed it, the query would result in an empty set when requesting a date for which there is no data, but maybe there was a conscious decision to show the most current data instead (looks better on the site, of course). Or they didn’t plan what to do in case of missing data, resulting in unexepected query results (in this case a loop of last known data).
I wouldn’t bet on planned deception, but being naive in what they would be able to show us. The latter fits the pattern of the whole trip better.
Grr, that link didn’t work either because it changes the “quote” to a “forward-quote” character, which doesn’t work. Let me try another link
‘‘http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=p’en
That last link works. When you follow it, you’ll see an error message disclosing the original SQL script, with it’s 3000 entry limitation. If you are clever, you can actually overcome that limitation and pull all the entries from the database.
This is so damn easy to verify.
Just go to the site… http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Check this heart rate data for Hadow
91
91.3
93.9
95.1
Hit the Refresh button and it always goes back to 91, then follows the pattern.
It’s deliberate and it’s fake – someone should hang their head in shame.
We could rename this the “Milli Vanilli” Expedition.
If they are where they say they are, exposed to -35 to -50C temps and dressed like they are said to be, they are long dead. Perhaps the Polar Bear ate them and the back & forth map is simply the sensors inside the bear as it travels it’s route.
The stories are simply dragged out and in the end they will report them missing, never to be found. I’m sure the Insurance Company has itself well-covered in fine print.
Now, if the helicopter did visit and bring supplies, we’d be seeing bunches of videos and live interviews, etc. Don’t you think the media would eat this up with a fork & spoon? The 3 brave IceKateers on a frolicking romp to the pole. Live from the Arctic: Tonight at 6pm.
Arctic Idol. Meet Ann, hear all about her ice-shatteing exploits and get the in-depth scoop on frozen soup. Extra, extra, read all about it. See pics of Ann on her way to stardom. Hear all about her lifelong obsession with ice.
pby (17:17:00) :
Nathan Hale said before he was hung by the British that he regrets that he had only one life to give for his country.
Hanged.
Mike the grammar n**i
Watch the video at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962022.stm
Q: Why can’t you see his breath?
Q: If the temps are -30 and below why is his face uncovered and why is he not wearing gloves?
I can’t work it out. Maybe there’s an innocent explanation.
The equipment supplier’s technical page states that temperature is sampled at 0.25Hz (i.e. every 4 seconds) but that the reporting frequency is every 15 seconds. Therefore no “live” reporting is possible since measurements can only ever be at least 15 seconds delayed.
Since the Catlin “live from the ice” web page is updating every 4 seconds, this can only give a false resolution of temperature. It would be more “truthful” (but less resolved), to report the latest of the several sampled temperatures, or the average of the sampled temperatures in the 15 second interval.
The website cannot both update every 4 seconds as it does, and truthfully report it as “live from the ice” without disclaimer. This is a pedantic point but just adds to the feeling that this data stinks.
It looks to me more as if the Flash was always designed to step through a multi-value data file with 4 second delay, rather than respond to real data.
I am not into conspiracies, but I believe this is all a hoax, fits right into AGW. I was suspicious of the biotelemetry from the start, not from an observational standpoint, but from a logical standpoint. I thought it to be simply too amazing. This simply discredits anything coming from this stunt (for me). This kind of stunt is also quite consistent with much of the AGW mantra. If these folks actually do publish any kind of data or findings associated with this spectacle, I would encourage all to be very skeptical and do your do diligence to uncover any inconsistencies and any sort of claims.
Just left an email with Equivital pointing them to this site also asked them if they are comfortable being adverisers on a site that is using fake/recorded data from their equipment. JG
Had thought there was something funny going on. I was watching Ann Daniels Heartrate and saw it at 123 odd, I then re-freshed page and it was down at 89 odd. A drop of 30 bpm in qa matter of seconds !
I know she must be fit but, that’s and impressive feat – being able to lower heart rate that much and that quickly 🙂
Dear Nasif Nahle, I am not sure whether you have actually seen the page we are talking about. First, only Pen Hadow has these low temperatures. His companions’ temperature is reported as being 4 deg C higher. Second, the page pretends to measure both surface temperature and the internal temperature, as two different quantities for each person. Third, all the numbers are generated according to a standard regular prescription.
As of approx 1024GMT 09Apr they have reported that the resupply was successful.
They also state:
“The next leg will bring 24 hours daylight allowing the team further opportunity to progress north whilst surveying increasing amounts of sea ice each day. ”
So they are expecting INCREASING amounts of sea ice which seems to belie their aim of proving that the ice is thinning due to AGW.
Thinking about SPRITE, their ice penetrating radar, how well would it allow for not being level as I am sure the team are traveling over some very rough ice and they may be measuring at a slant angle? Does anyone have any further info on this device to see if it has any stabilisation or angle compensation? Google searches for SPRITE only bring up the Catlin survey pages – probably because they coined the acronym.
“Catlin Arctic Survey expedition leader Pen Hadow says that, 37 days into the Project and having drilled into the ice in hundreds of different spots, his observations would seem to support this latest research.” What and whose peer reviewed research? NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Oh really!! Botht hose organisations are flawed at their hearts and I think they are not to be trusted. That’s my opinion.
“The drilling experiments I’m doing are showing the ice to be between 1.5 and 2 metres thick”, he told Independent Television News. “Scientists say that means it will not last the summer melt”.
Who are these “Scientists” Pen? A 2 metres thickness of ice is too thin to last the summer eh? We shall see, but if the expedition carries on as it going, they may not make it back with all their appendages intact. Current weather is a sunny -34°C.
Punchline of hoary British joke. “ere mister, d’you do brazing?
Explanation. “It’s cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey”.
The lesson of this expedition is that Arctic publicity stunts should be conducted in July.
Pft;-))
That’s exactly what went thro’ my mind when I saw those remarks, but that’s just me I suppose! Poor old Pen he’s probalby had to cuddle up to a soft fluffy polar bear pup, just like those sitting on an icefloe in the latest c*%p from WWF advertising to Adopt a Polar Bear. Funny really, I’ve never thought of a skilled, cunning, & ruthless, natural born killer as soft cuddly & fluffy!! Perhaps it’s time for a re-show of “Kingdom of the Ice Bear” by Hugh Miles & Mike Salisbury? That wonderful programme, & equally wonderful book, showed fantastic photographs of polar bears hunting in & out of the water deep within the Arctic Circle, & even comments on how good swmmers they are! Also it possess a map on the inner fly leaf showing an area of “permanent” ice, which appears to be much smaller than the NSDIC summer melt website view. Date of programme & book – 1985!
Lance;-) We BRITONS live in BRITAIN, I know it’s confusing. As for the Prince of Fools, one can only hope his dear beloved wise old sage Mother lives for ever. On the other hand, if he becomes the Constitutional Monarch, (heaven forbid), he will have to keep his trap well & truly shut in public. He should go back to talking to his plants at Highgrove where they’ll benefit from the added CO2 he breathes over them. It is probably a case of Britons being fed up with him & his eco-speak, (although he seems a decent enough chap) that we just close our ears to it all, but deeply fear his flawed knowledge, but he has the ears & eyes of those who in turn have have his, it’s a mutual appreciation society I guess. He always has been that way inlclined ever since I can remember. Perhaps he should go to the pole himself?
Aron:-))) loved the Spike Milligan clip, 24 carat gold! He & his weird & wonderful & at times lavatorial (literally in that clip) sense of humour are sadly missed.
I’ll follow that Catlin site closely from now on. This is so embarrassing, this country used to be world leaders in the scientific process, now we seem to be world chumps at it, & more embarrassingly, pleased to be so!
AtB 😉
The more I look, the more this looks like ‘Piltdown man’ in the artic…
scientific fraud at its best. Now all the data is on ‘standby’
Latest message on the page :
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
Lol, and I just noticed that Pen hadrow has manged to clone himself, and now appears to be completing the trip with just him and his two clones.
They seem to have more than that issue technology wise
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
Bit of a disaster the whole thing it seems.
Regards
Andy
I wonder if Pen’s two latest companions are aware of this?
The team’s biometrics page status is now Standby with no data being displayed.
“Edward:
Could this mission be biased from the start? It seems at least 4 of these 23 sponsors will benefit in some way if the data collected supports AGW!”
You’re kidding, right? The stated goals were to show how BAD global warming REALLY IS. Of course it’s biased and has been from Day 1.
“Jim Cripwell:
Am I being cynical when I speculate that the Catlin expedition dont want anyone to see the raw data on ice thickness? That they wish to “process” it before making the results known? Just a thought.:”
No, not too cynical at all. Did you catch the comment from the ice that “…our measurements SEEM to agree with that…”
Thars sum seye-ence fur ya.
Regarding the “sensor” with the hand warmer, from their website:
“After a small hole is made in the ice (Using the Mora Ice Drill) this CTD is lowered from just under the ice to a depth of 300m at about 0.5 m/s”
So I stop, in -40C weather, drill a small hole in the ice with my ice drill, and then I lower this sensor 300m (1,000′) at 1/2m/sec, that’s 600 seconds? So it takes me 10 minutes to get the sensor down, and the same to retract it?…so 20mins plus the time to drill the hole. And to do this, I have to unpack all the equipment, and then pack it back up when I’m done, again, in -40C temps. This has to take an hour to do?…maybe more.
So how many of these measurements are going to be taken? And yes, as pointed out prevoiusly, the “hand warmer” notation on Caitlin’s site is kind of odd, eh?
JimB
“Mark:
If I were them I’d be doing my damnedest to make sure that I was not going to be made into a martyr for the cause: I’d get on the next supply plane. Actually, I’d have simply looked at the satellite data and never left the comfort of my office.
Mark”
On this, I disagree. They’re doing exactly what many of us here at WUWT have criticized others for NOT doing, and that’s getting out in the field and actually observing something.
That the thing they’re observing is their digits turning black and falling off is secondary :), and is certainly part of the science.
JimB
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
In other words, they are looking for a way of hiding their deceit.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Just curious, but when ths Pen Haddow was rescued last time, did they also remove his sledge & contents (including the rubbish he must have accumlated)? Or was that just abandoned…?
Usually on rescue missions, the only thing the rescuers are interested in extracting is the person(s) at risk.
Why don’t you just decompile the swf and look at the source code? If you search around the net, you can find flash decompilers here and there. Pretty simple exercise really. Perhaps if I get a little free time this weekend, I will go do that for you and tell you exactly what their little flash presentation is doing.
Oh dear oh dear oh dear.
Catlin has just announced
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.”
I wonder what caused that?
Regarding the hand warmers on the sensor:
“The hand warmers are presumably used after the instrument is recovered to assist in draining out any residual water before the instrument is stored.”
At first thought, “maybe”. But think about this…you take a sensor that’s in water that’s roughly .5C, so it’s already close to freezing, and you pull it out of the ice into air that’s at -40C? The only “hand warmer” I can think of that would prevent any residual water from freezing would be a torch, and only if you could get it lit at that temp.
This gets more hokey by the minute.
For some reason the whole thing makes me think of Barney and his one bullet back in Mayberry.
JimB
Try this from the website as of 12.30pm BST:
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data is transmitted on a delayed basis; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time. The current intention is to compress this data and relay it back to the UK at the end of each and every day.
Data obviously varies according to the activity conducted by each team member at certain times of the day. The team typically drag their sledges for 75 minutes and then take a 15 minute break, and as a trio they will usually complete six or seven such sessions each day. As such, their breathing rates, heart rates and core body temperature will be high during the day, and lower during the evening, once they cease skiing.
Occasionally, however, we may see data that does not seem to fit this pattern perfectly. Sometimes this may be due to an ill-fitting monitor (which can work itself loose over a 9-10 hour sledging day) and this can produce readings that are not 100% accurate. At other times, there may be a physiological explanation. As an example, Pen has a naturally low heart rate when compared to many individuals, which incidentally makes him well suited to long distance polar travel.
Readings may also occasionally drop to zero. This can happen if a unit is removed, so that its battery can be replaced, or, in the case of core temperature, if one transmitter pill works its way out of the body’s digestive system and another pill is not immediately swallowed. As such, all of the readings above are best viewed as being indicative of how the human body performs in subzero temperatures. Given that the team are not performing in laboratory conditions, however, some erroneous data should occasionally be expected.
The data produced by the Equivital System is provided for general information only and is not intended for medical analysis within the scope of the Catlin Arctic Survey. As such, it will be analysed for general research purposes only and will not be viewed or utilised as a tool for the diagnosis or identification of the medical condition of the expedition team. This has been agreed by all members of the expedition team.”
At least we know that their support team are fans of WUWT.
BTW, they seem to have turned off the system in response to our inquiries:
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.”
There is a rumour that they are all in a parking lot in Arizona ……..
I was under the impression that the biotelemetry was live from the ice and we could see how they were getting on.
“The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data is transmitted on a delayed basis; it is not a live feed.”
“As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time. The current intention is to compress this data and relay it back to the UK at the end of each and every day.”
I take it that from this statement the real-time biotelemetry web page is no longer needed as the data will be received in one batch at the end of the day.
Wish they had explained that at the start.
I lived in Cologne, (Koln), West Germany in the mid 1960,s and synchronised lights were installed on many of the major roads. I have often wondered why, with modern electronics they were not used in the UK. Now we know! so we use more fuel and the government get more tax! brilliant.
Good catch. The web site now displays zeros for all measurements and there is a statement (in small print — gotta love it):
The BBC now reports that the ice measuring equipment isn’t working either:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
it has emerged that British explorers studying the Arctic are struggling with a series of technical problems.
A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.
The radar system, known as Sprite, is dragged behind the sledge of expedition leader Pen Hadow and is meant to gather data about the ice for transmission via satellite to researchers.
But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed.
So with the team’s early progress anyway hampered by the weather, the Sprite only gathered data over a total period of seven hours of trekking in the expedition’s first 18 days.
A resupply flight, which landed last month, collected the device for repairs back in the UK, and that work is now complete.
But support staff are still having trouble accessing the ice data stored inside it.
The broken SeaCat device was extracted on the first resupply flight and a replacement is due to be delivered in a fortnight’s time.
….
And according to the BBC “London, we have a problem” their SPRITE radar isn’t working either.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
To recap then:
1) The ice penetrating radar doesn’t work;
2) NASA have published satellite ice thickness data anyway;
3) They’ve got hypothermia and frostbite;
4) The provenance of the biotelemetary data is unreliable.
Do they really need any more reasons to come back home?
In all likelihood, the Catlin photos are from the Ithaca Ice works movie set at Pinewood Studios UK! For some different scenes, they could be from one of the largest cold storage room in the UK namely the Esca Food Solutions operation in Scunthorpe, where all McDonald’s burgers are produced! Next time pictures of the Catlin group are shown, see if any of them are munching a freshly cooked still steaming big whoppa! (with fries).
I’d rather do a study of bikini size as it relates to the color of the sand on the beach.
Arctic team: ‘London, we have a problem’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
It would appear that the Catlin Artic Survey have been beset with problems from the outset but have delibrately kept quiet about it till today.
I wonder why that was?
The notion that CAT has actually been collecting any meaningful data has now been knocked on the head.
CAT have been outed, if they are not bringing home the science then you cannot call this a survey. It is a PR exercise in stupidty.
All I can say is WOW! As a fan of “science” , although not qualified to talk in depth about the minutiae of this topic, I am not surprised at the deception involved. These people will stop at nothing to make a grab for power (and my wallet). That they aren’t smart enough to do it well also doesn’t surprise me.
Data obviously varies according to the activity conducted by each team member at certain times of the day. The team typically drag their sledges for 75 minutes and then take a 15 minute break, and as a trio they will usually complete six or seven such sessions each day. As such, their breathing rates, heart rates and core body temperature will be high during the day, and lower during the evening, once they cease skiing.
How kind of them to tell us how they are going to rig the data to make it look like they are dragging sledges for 75 minutes and then resting for 15. Throw in a period of sleep temperatures and randomize it all. Next get some poor underling in the office to make sure it never develops a regular pattern and with any luck no one will notice what a bunch of phonies they are.
We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
Yea, I can imagine they would be desperate to have it fixed before anyone else can get wind of their duplicity.
The most likely, IMO, is that they had grandiose plans for providing live data and had set up the web site with that in mind but never got the hookup working. Then, though lack of diligence or because they didn’t want to admit the failure, they left that part of the website up.
But then again maybe this is how they’re actually doing it:
Scott
Look at Mikey, using the new word! The Mikinator! Mike-a-tollah…
I think Flints coment:
Why don’t I see their breath?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962022.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962021.stm
Is really quite significant.
Jeff,
hehehe… Doncha love it?! I wondered if anyone would notice…
The Mikinator
That biometrie data has suddenly gone blank. Only the hearts keep beating (wanna bet that’ll be the title to the theme song to the TV special, sung by the bonnie prince himself?)
Seems to indicate a 24 hour graph is now available but I can’t click through.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
I hope the medics supervising this know that the information is false. I mean, you wouldn’t want them basing decisions on it, would you?
I don’t want to sound macabre, but I won’t be wholly surprised if they are all found frozen to the spot while the ‘live’ data ticks merrily away in the background…
Based on everything I’ve read here, I would say the group has been pulled from the Arctic. This would have been done a while back when we first learned of their declining condition. More than likely the false data and other information was hurriedly put together to salvage what otherwise would have been a disaster.
Now you guys have uncovered the coverup and its going to be worse than if they had first told the truth in the first place. I can assure you this episode when presented to some credible media will work to discredit the AGW movement.
They seem to be aware of a problem, page now says..
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.”
Unfortunately we now have zero confidence in any further data they publish. Bet they will say it’s now all correct with nary a mention of WUWT.
Didn’t see this at first glance:
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
To hazard a guess the Catlin crew are reading Watt’s Up and then dashing back to fix the website
That BBC stories says previous expeditions ecountered much thicker ice. Any clue as to who/when/where that might have been?
Jeff Alberts (03:56:48) :
…
I’d rather do a study of bikini size as it relates to the color of the sand on the beach.
Jeff – Give the sceptic in the black hat a cigar – there are obviously many ways to serve the interests of good science…
G
They could at least have gone to the effort of blasting the same fake number(s) to open clients at the same time. Tsk tsk, sloppy sloppy.
Hey! These are catastrophic AGW proponents. YOU WEREN’T SUPPOSED TO CHECK THEIR NUMBERS! Facts are irrelevant. It is what the bureau of newspeak says it is.
Re CTD.
I am fairly familiar with these instruments (I use one occationally, but from another manufacturer). The hand warmer is probably just an add-on to avoid ice-jamming of the unit, possibly before, and after deployment.
When lowered into the water, I am confident the heating is switched off, and the entire unit will asjust to ambient temperature fairly rapidly. There is usually a reccomended speed for lowering and raising the unit.
BTW, the unit I employ, logs oxygen, Clorophyll-a, temperature, salinity and pressure both when descending and ascending.
Re Hypothermia.
The core temperature should normally(obviously) be well above the surface (skin) temperature. As a student way back when, I was a guinea pig in a rather large (diving) hypothermia experiment. If/when core tempreature was 35.5 C, we were immediately taken out of the experiment. I suspect this core temperature over prolonged periods is quite dangerous. At 35 C both physical and intellectual capabilities are significantly impaired.
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
I don’t understand the point of this expedition or the point of this discussion?
All that I can piece together is that these guys are in the arctic taking ice thickness and temperature measurements to see how the ice is behaving this spring. I am having a hard time figuring out what this has to do with c02 or globull warming? Even if there is NO ICE up there, how can they nail it down to c02 as the culprit? Evidence?
extremly suspect1
The Englishman (03:53:01) and others provided a BBC link which contained:
“But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed. ”
As previously pointed out on WUWT, only living things respond to wind chill. “Technology” only sees the actual -40°, WHICH, PRESUMABLY, IT WAS DESIGNED FOR. OR NOT.
Another red herring from the media.
Just an idea for you stats loving Climate Audit types. Apparently there’s a statistical analysis that can be performed to determine if a data set has been made up? Has anybody thought to run these numbers to determine if they were ever actual biometric data, or if someone came up with the sequences out of thin air?
London We Have A Problem… WUWT figured out what we were about! Can you please publish this article to help cover our tracks? Please???
Thanks,
Prince, et al
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
david shukman has just been told that there are major technical problems with their equipment.
the only thing which is working it seems is the big heath robinson corkscrew type thing which tells them that “the ice is much thinner than it used to be.”
no mention of fabricated websites, of course.
I was going to capture a full IP trace (which includes UDP and TCP, and all the protocols that use them) while visiting http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx. However, that seems moot given that things are disabled. Hmm, claim to be disabled (e.g. Cryosphere disabling 2009’s ice cap comparisions even though all they changed was the selection form people fill in).
So, I did take a look at Pen’s data (I have flashblock installed, the swf fetch and execution only happens when I click on the display area). The only thing that happened was to “GET /flash/biotelemetry.swf”. Execution didn’t access any other site, so they must have changed the swf or a cookie or something to not access indigopapa.com.
I’ll check again when they reenable it. If they reenable it. Hah – they’re never going to reenable it.
If Catlin Arctic Survey is fraudulent about this, I’ve lost all confidence in anything they have said or will say. I’m tempted to send a note to the Catlin Group pointing out that their name is now associated with minor fraud.
I notice the DNS name “catlinfraud.com” is available. 🙂
pkatt (23:13:17) :
“you know of course Pen Hadow has pulled this crap before:”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html
This is also Update 4 above.
If you have not checked this out then make sure you have a look at the link.
Wow!!
“The British explorer Pen Hadow was rescued by plane from the North Pole yesterday – and came under immediate criticism from the emergency team “for risking lives” by the “stupid” decision to launch his Arctic mission when the pack ice was melting with the onset of spring.”
“Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk.”
Yes this is the same Kenn Borek Air which are flying in the re-supplies.
How many more days are the Catlin three due to spend on the ice?
Will Kenn Borek fly in after 30th April to save him again?
“Mr Hadow subsisted on half-rations of nuts, chocolate and dried fruit.”
And Pen had the cheek to talk about poor Martin’s favourite snack; yes his bird food.
You know you could not write this.
Good one PKatt.
MC (04:19:40) wrote:
“Based on everything I’ve read here, I would say the group has been pulled from the Arctic. This would have been done a while back when we first learned of their declining condition. More than likely the false data and other information was hurriedly put together to salvage what otherwise would have been a disaster.”
Wow!
“Now you guys have uncovered the coverup and its going to be worse than if they had first told the truth in the first place. I can assure you this episode when presented to some credible media will work to discredit the AGW movement.”
Tipping point?
JimB (03:21:11) :“The stated goals were to show how BAD global warming REALLY IS. Of course it’s biased and has been from Day 1.”
I agree. (It’s about the AGW = politics. Prince Charles is officially behind this. WWF, who besides the adopt polar bear fraud is highly political, as top sponsor, and 4 organizations who benifit from Cap and Trade also sponsors.) In the online interview here i did this transcript of Pen Hadows answer a question (I left out some words I didn’t recognized):
“- Can you try and tell us why the survey is so important and indeed so urgent that you are undertaken at the moment?
– Well the sea ice around the north pole region […] some scientists are saying that this could become a seasonal feature only rather than a year around feature in less than 4 years from now. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its last report was suggesting 50 to 100 years, but in fact […] as scientists know it dates nearer to 2020, 2030. So we seem to be losing one of our planets defining surface glaciers, and the implications of a seasonal loss will affect almost everywhere on the planet, and almost everyone. There will be weather changes, wind changes, temperature changes, and rainfall changes largely unpredictable at this stage, given us the level of science available to us, and of course the global sea level rise will be accelerated as the protecting heat shield […] is lost …”
–
Gloom and doom despite there was ice free Arctic sea 6000 to 7000 years ago during the human and nature friendly holocene optimum: NGU
BTW, I think Pen’s answer “There will be weather changes, wind changes, temperature changes, and rainfall changes largely unpredictable at this stage, given us the level of science available to us” can be compared with this words from Brother Enim in Monty Pyton’s The End of the World: “- Certainly there will be a mighty wind, if the word of God is anything to go by.
Tragedies has its funny stuff. :/
And now it says:
“Biotelemetry – Data for March 8th 2009
Please note the above data was collected over a 12 hour period on March 8th. This gives us a fair representation of how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data above is a representation of what the team have gone through on a particular day; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time.”
I say chaps, if you really are going to Bali to study the temperature effects on beer, &/or study bikini size relative to colour of sand on the beach, I have to ask, “can I come too, I’ll buy the first round!”
Slightly OT, but seriously, has anybody heard any news about yet more Ice Tour boat trips into the Arctic to see the ice before it all melts, getting stuck in ice that shouldn’t be there according to the alarmists? e.g. the Kapitan Kolebnikov (not sure of the spelling) around this time last year?
Nobody can tell me what this experiment has to do with c02?
I just sent this:
To: …catlin.com
cc: …wermenh.com
Subject: Please direct this to sponsors of Catlin Arctic Survey
–text follows this line–
Folks at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/08/catlin-ice-survey-website-recycles-biotelemetry-data
have discovered that the Survey’s
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx is not only providing
data that isn’t live, but was repeating a short segment of data logged from
who-knows-where and could be pure fiction. I believe some of that false data was alarming enough so readers referred it to you suggesting that the survey team be evacuated for their own safety.
While this certainly doesn’t reach the level of criminal fraud, lending your
name to an organization that lies about simple data like this suggests that I
should believe nothing they have said or will say.
It’s probably too late to withdraw support or revoke permission to use your
name, so I suggest you forward a copy of your corporate ethics manual to the
Survey and demand they adopt the relevant parts. I’d highlight a few
sections, e.g. one on lying to clients.
There are also reports that their radar broke and was flown home and back with
the resupply flights, there’s no mention of that on Catlin’s web site even
though they made a big thing about it being the prime data acquistion
experiment. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm .
This is not how good science is supposed to work!
-Eric Werme
Hadow’s record of a really stupid mistake,is not a confidence builder.He’s no
Admunsen.Again-get them out…
B Kerr (05:08:32) :
[snip]
I now believe after reading the posts and linking to the BBC Videos that this whole trip is a staged hoax. I watched the video and you clearly see bugs flying around in the lights. The guy is wearing a light jacket with no gloves in -30 Deg C! No way! Light snow falls off of the ice blocks; no way it’s all frozen sea water and the Arctic is a virtual desert with no precipitation. It’s too cold for gods sake to snow.
Lucy, Somebody has some spain’n to do.
Graeme Rodaughan (17:22:04) :
Perhaps we could mount a 2 week Sceptics expedition to Bali to check if Global warming was having an impact on the serving temperature of Beer?
It would be as useful.
I disagree. It would be far more useful.
Can I join?
From The BBC: Thursday, 9 April 2009 11:59 UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
“The radar system, known as Sprite, is dragged behind the sledge of expedition leader Pen Hadow and is meant to gather data about the ice for transmission via satellite to researchers.
But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed:”.
Let me get this right now.
Global warming at -70c caused the equipment to fail.
Mmmmmm!
Something very wrong here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
Money quote
“The drillings have revealed a typical ice thickness of between 1.5 – 2 metres which is far thinner than a previous generation of explorers encountered. ”
The Catlin site runs a quote from Kwok saying the jolly will provide an unprecedented set of data
Two questions: 1) what’s ‘unprecedented’ if its been done by previous generations; 2) show me the data collected by previous generations that you are comparing with.
Oh and 220m thick ice shelves melt in 35 days
Pen Haddow’s speaker profile.
http://www.tmcentertainment.co.uk/speaker-index.html?speakerid=128
“In May 2003, Pen was catapulted to international fame when he became the first person in history to sledge alone from Canada to the North Geographic Pole without any outside help.”
No mention of being air lifted off of the ice when he was going short on nuts, and dried fruit.
Being air lifted off not considered as outside help?
When you get to the top of a mountain you are half way there!!
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The data produced by the Equivital System
The Sultans of spin.
Let’s see. Ice measures were taken and compared to historical ice measures. Conclusion: The ice is thinner. But…it…isn’t…the…same…ice. And it wasn’t measured in the same place, and probably not on the same day, month, oceanic oscillation, or weather system conditions. Plus the ice that was historically measured is gone. Melted. No! Really! It went away less than 10 years later and probably less than 5 years later after it was first born. All Arctic ice melts within a few years. There is no ancient ice in the Arctic like there is on Greenland. Cores of Arctic ice reveals baby ice. Everywhere you drill. Relatively speaking. So there is no control group. None. This is just the worst designed scientific study I have ever come across. 5th graders can design a better study than this. Ice thickness is one of the noisiest data streams there is. And because of that, much more care has to be taken when designing a comparative study.
Addendum to my post: For these guys to be gone from their homes this long and if they are staging this then I would bet you could sit in front of their house and see them come and go. An investigative journalist could figure this out in a minute if they were staging this. This would be like the insurance companies following the guy on crutches that was faking an injury for a big monitary claim but was causght playing basketball or something. These guys need to be exposed!
For one reason why they would stage this hoax would be to save money. An expedition like this would cost a bunch. I also question the timing of it especially since Mr Hawdow went this late before. They picked this late date thinking that they would get video of melting ice which is what they want to show to the world. ie: the ice cap is melting. Wrong! It’s (Ice flow) not melting it’s moving with the underlieing current just like it always has and into the North Atlantic.
An earlier comment at 20:48:16 showed the Arctic Bouy Program drift patterns and temperature data. Man it’s cold up their.
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_map.html
This is kind of fun when you catch an elaborate hoax. I just hope it gets into the media but you probably know the answer to that.
http://www.borekair.com/index.php?cat=contact
Anthony: I would think a phone call to these guys might yield some information on this.
These guys are the ones that rescued Hadow the last time.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html
We thought you were driving! I call shotgun!
It’s studying an effect without a cause.
The Biotelemetry data appears to be “operational” again.
From the website: Biotelemetry – Data for March 8th 2009
From here:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090406132602.htm
“First-year sea ice usually reaches 6 feet in thickness,”
The Catlin Ex perdition says that 95% of the ice measurements have been between 1.5 and 2 meters thick, or 4.92′ to 6.56’…
Looks about like the “usual” thickness to me. Of course, those may be the pre experdition measurements…
Mike
It’s not really possible, on this planet, to be too cold to snow.
[snip – deleted, off color]
If the air cools to truly frigid Arctic temperatures such as -40 C and below then the moisture capacity of the air will be so low that likely not much snow can occur. Only at these extremely low temperatures is the phrase “it is too cold to snow” fairly valid.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/222/
So they are risking their lives to gather lots and lots of utterly unreliable data from equipment that keeps malfunctioning. Yet I will bet that what data they do recover (no matter how dubious and unreliable), will still be exclaimed by the BBC et al as definitive proof of further continuing Arctic melt. Despite the fact that they will have NO other comparable data with which to compare it to.
The BIG problem for the Catlin Artic Survey is that they delibrately withheld all this information from the public despite the fact that this expedition is very much an exercise in public science.
Who took that decision?
They compounded that problem by foolishly recycling old biometric data as new daily updated data.
Who made that decision?
If this is how proponents of AGW do science then everyone has a right to be sceptical about this expedition.
Bensford’s Law is the statistical process to uncovered fake data. Has anyone tried this on the repeating data or is the data too narrow to apply this technique?
I noted in the 2003 article it stated no one should venture on arctic sea ice after April 30th. It seems this mission was designed to do exactly that. Interesting.
Pen said that he is such an old hand at Arctic exploration that the ice drill is really redundant… “By tapping on the ice with this hammer I can get the ice thickness data to within .02mm just by listening to the sound it makes. Why even bother with the ice drill? Do you know how long it takes to drill a 6′ deep hole in the ice?”
NOT REALLY… I’m only kidding…
Sorry for off color comment…
I just visited their site and tried to watch the videos. It’s not video it’s only audio. Somebody needs to find their old pictures on the internet and compare them to these on the current Catlin web page to see if they are just using stock photos and playing audio recorded in their garage. The plot thickens. Liars usually have to lie more to cover for their previous lies.
Hmmmm.
Read the BBC’s “London, We Have a Problem”.
Now tell me.
How odd is it that in describing the nature of the “problem” . . .
they never ONCE use the word “COLD” ?
So focused are they on the WARMING and ICE THICKNESS ( 5 references)
that the “problem” of COLD is never mentioned.
Yeah, they’ve got a problem alright.
Hmmm. Regarding the fact that Pen had to be extracted from the North Pole in 2003, how are we supposed to reconcile this statement from the Catlin Arctic Survey site:
(100 days would mean pick up around June 10th !!!)
with this one, by Steve Penikett of Kenn Borek Air, from the Independent’s report on the 2003 ‘extraction’ :
I interpret this to mean that the team has literally planned to fail. Basically they have 21 more days on the ice.
One more thing I keep wanting to mention. In his posts Martin seems to think that the journey will become easier as the temperatures warm up. In fact the reverse is true. As leads open up and the ice shifts more their progress is actually going to slow down.
I blame Anthony Watts, enc., for this probable hoax, which was apparently specifically designed to counter their work in regard to actually checking the sitings of surface temperature sensors, by showing in contrast the fantastically heroic measures AGW Climate Scientists make in order to conduct their “science”. It’s humbling.
Think of the children growing up and what these ” scientists” are teaching them. The damage that AGW scientists are doing is beyond measure!
Anthony, I love your site and read it daily hope to someday learn enough to contribute.
The weather in the Arctic is so bad that the moisture in their breath is uhhhh… solidifying, ya solidifying, and falling onto their tongues before it makes it past their teeth. Ya that’s the ticket. This is the reason that the breath was not visible in the videos.
Thank you.
Please note that the unapproved words “cold” and “ice” were NOT used in the creation of this comment.
I sent a mail to the expeditions press officer asking:
and also asked about the two videos where no breath can be seen and a speaker does not wear gloves.
This was the answer:
Even people who do foolish things do not deserve to die.
Since when? Ever hear the phrase “Hold my beer and watch THIS!” ?
“Stupidity is not a sin, the victim can’t help being stupid. But stupidity is the only universal capital crime: the sentence is death, there is no appeal, and execution is carried out automatically and without pity.”
— Robert A. Heinlein
The BBC story mentions “Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.” That’s the device shown in a photo with the hand-warmer fastened to it. They don’t say that the warmer was probably how they planned to warm the battery up enough for it to (briefly) work. Something didn’t work.
Also notice that the BBC article mentions that on Wednesday the original ice radar sled was delivered to the expedition along with the communications system. I think the data uplink device was inside the radar sled, which was taken away for repair a month ago. No wonder there isn’t live data on the web site.
The BBC article also mentions that broken cables crippled the radar device. Do you suppose the cables which broke are those shown in the photo — cables connecting the radar sled to the equipment sled? In intense cold, ordinary cables won’t be flexible.
“”Jeff Alberts (06:21:57) :
Alan the Brit (05:31:55) :
I say chaps, if you really are going to Bali to study the temperature effects on beer, &/or study bikini size relative to colour of sand on the beach, I have to ask, “can I come too, I’ll buy the first round!”
We thought you were driving! I call shotgun!””
Hang on there chaps, studying the effects of beer and driving!!!
(Alan the Brit, like me, we are pre-programmed to drive on the wrong side of the road, or do we drive on the left side of the road, which is right?)
No no no, do not like the sound of that, too dangerous, rather go on a jolly romp to the North Pole.
Why not try something else:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/travel/item8044.html
Now chaps we could meet up somewhere warm, with lots of cold beer.
Hopefully, these trips are being subsidised by people who are sponsoring Polar Bears. We can sit back enjoy the sun and let everyone PANDA to our needs.
RE: RexAlan (05:54:29) :
From The BBC: Thursday, 9 April 2009 11:59 UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
“The radar system, known as Sprite, is dragged behind the sledge of expedition leader Pen Hadow and is meant to gather data about the ice for transmission via satellite to researchers.
But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed:”.
If the temperature is minus 50, it cannot drop any lower, no matter how strong the wind is. An object will cool to minus 50 more rapidly. So the minus 70 is a red herring in that respect. It does mean humans will feel colder as they are losing heat more rapidly and appropriate clothing is required. In Canada we used a cooling rate of watts per square metre until about 2001. Instead of correcting the rate in the problem area, a new system was adopted using temperatures. This makes more headlines when you can report windchill to low levels.
crosspatch (20:24:01) :
completely off topic (but hey, we never get an “open” thread around here 🙂
Has NASA ever done this:
Take a picture of a place, say the Orion Nebula, and six months later take another picture of the same spot, and then combine them as a stereoscopic image to make basically a 3D picture of how it would look if your eyes were as far apart as the orbit of Earth?
The Orion Nebula (also known as M42) is 1500 light years distant. The Earth’s orbit is far too small to provide any parallax effect. I have imaged it at different times http://arnholm.org/astro/deepsky/m42/
I once cooperated with another imager in Canada, we used the Scandinavia-Canada baseline to try to make a 3D anaglyph image of the Copernicus crater on the Moon using identical telescopes. The image is in the Moon section on my website. It shows a 3D effect, but it is really an illusion caused by slight different imaging times. The crater walls are too low compared to the distance to the Moon.
Regarding the topic of this thread, I think the whole story is quite sad. The Catlin survey expedition appears totally discredited wrt. providing any real information (why am I not surprised?). How could they think they could get away with such manipulation?
Problem? I think there is more than one…..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
The BBC hasn’t been very good at reporting the history of these explorers. How did they suddenly get information about some problems with the expedition, and what else is the BBC overlooking?
I respected the BBC. A while ago.
“The first thing to note is that the data above is a representation of what the team have gone through on a particular day; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time.”
Oh, ok… that makes it alright then.
I think it would have been wise as a “project team” to have explored the possibility of being honest.
Just a thought.
Also I thought ‘wind chill’ was only relevant to living bodies. -40ºC is the same in still air or in a wind of 30 knots to a piece of malfunctioning metallic/plastic junk. Or am I going to have to use my Easter of four nails, a hammer and two planks and nail me to a cross!
Dear Lubos…
First, only Pen Hadow has these low temperatures. His companions’ temperature is reported as being 4 deg C higher. Second, the page pretends to measure both surface temperature and the internal temperature, as two different quantities for each person. Third, all the numbers are generated according to a standard regular prescription.
You’re right, and it makes the thing more suspicious. 33°C is reported like Hadow’s internal temperature, which places this man at a margin of collapse by hypothermia. A drop of corporal temperature down to 35 °C is considered an emergency and it will lead to death if it is not treated immediately. Ann and Martin display normal internal temperatures, although their cardiac frequencies are excessively high. Heart beats faster when the body is under conditions of stress, i.e. when the body requires of abundant oxygenation or when the body must eliminate excess of heat from its interior.
Organizing this data:
Pen is suffering a severe hypothermia which could mean he’s already dead. No other explanation.
Ann is eliminating a high load of heat from her body through an unusual cardiac frequency which would lead her to death at some moments (160 b x ‘). Besides, Ann is breathing unusually. Normal breath frequency is 12-20 breaths per minute; her ventilation rate is 33 Hz per minute, which indicates she’s suffering a very serious respiratory illness (emphysema, for example).
Possible explanations:
1. She got a cold, pneumonia or any other respiratory illness.
2. She’s doing a kind of physical activity which could lead her to death.
3. She’s not in the Arctic, but in another warm location.
Martin is also eliminating a high amount of heat from his inner tissues, so there are three possible explanations:
1. He could be resting close to a powerful heat radiator since his breathing rate is almost normal.
2. He’s doing something which makes his heart beats hastily, but maintains his breath rate normal (nonsense hypothesis).
3. He is not in the Arctic (more plausible hypothesis).
It seems a hoax.
I’m intrigued by the ability of the team to drill hundreds of holes by hand in 1.5 – 2 m. of ice. My many years of experience in cutting holes in Arctic Canada’s fresh-water ice (with powered augers in the more recent years) suggest that these guys are super beings. Of a more technical nature, just what are the specs for their drill? Does anyone know? What diameter hole does it cut, and what are the dimensions of the instrument package they lower through it? The experience of northern hydrologists is that underwater sampling needs to cope with rime-ice buildup on the walls of the hole in the ice. In 5 – 10 minutes, an 8 inch diameter hole at -40 will grow more than an inch of ice on the wall. To make deep-water mm’ts through a small hole is impossible.
“how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.”
And I thought it was the “stupid” cold… silly me!
[snip]
Snip? Wow – my first snip. I suppose it deserved to be snipped.
Okay, the .swf file that displayed the zeroes was created today at 1045, is 132848 bytes long and doesn’t contact anyone.
The new .swf file was created at 1532, is 136426 bytes long and
reads XML data from http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=pen . You can read that with a browser, but it’s just raw data like:
<?xml version=”1.0″ encoding=”UTF-8″ ?><stats>.<pen>..<ecg max=”1459″ data=”910,913,939,951,935,885, …
That file has sections for different sensors named ecg, coretemp, skintemp, beltbr, which match the four streams of data displayed on the web page.
BTW, did anyone really think the data stream was live in the first place? the web site makes if clear data was going back via Satellite phone, it’s not like the Polar Bears are running a Wifi net up there for visitors. I had assumed it was canned, but did think it was data from the last upload. Perhaps it is, though I’m not sure we can believe Catlin’s claim that it’s March 8 data. It could have been from test walks before starting the real trek.
One thing that’s answered – I was wondering why the resupply plane is claimed to have landed. Wouldn’t it be much safer to fly to some lat/long, drop a pallet with a parachute and go back to Resolute Bay? Since they had to pick up the radar unit, that would require the first resupply flight to land. So, why did the second resupply flight land?
Quote from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
“Simon Harris-Ward, Director of Operations for Catlin Arctic survey told the BBC: “Given the very extreme conditions they are operating in during the Arctic winter we were always going to face potential difficulties with the array of advanced technology despite our robust testing programme.
Robust? Hahahahahahahaha! We all know what that means.
“We have been cautious…”
Is that the British word for ‘evasive?’
“about making any statement about SPRITE simply because of a combination of factors. First, an uncertainty about the exact nature of the problem…
This was special gear that Pen Hadus designed, wasn’t it? So why don’t they know what’s wrong with it? Oh, right; they’re clueless.
and second, the inevitable delays in assessing data which had to be extracted on our re-supply flights before it could be analysed.”
And before they told the public that their most important gear wasn’t really functional. So, what possible reason could they have not to announce the failure of the SHprITE in the first place? To continue the charade?
I while back there was some discussion on the Catlin site about a “record day” for ice core drilling near the first re-supply site where Pen stated he had drilled 48 cores. A satellite image was presented March 17th. See:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Difficult_decisions_
The airstrip has a noted thickness of 1.06m – I love the accuracy. But we also know that the radar system was non-operational from the BBC report, therefore my assumption is that much of Pen’s work was done around the map area, in the middle of a freeze/refreeze area. One could hardly call the airstrip first year ice as it was more like “last months”. So onto more statisitcs. The BBC articel goes on to state:
“With 102 holes drilled so far, hundreds of measurements have been made of ice thickness and snow cover over the 243km covered so far. ”
With 48 of the 102 measurements made most likely within the Radarsat image (that’s 48@1.06m), what can we learn about average thickness? If thier estimate of 1.5 to 2m meters is the average then the other half of the measurements must be 2 to 2.5m. What kind of independant information can we use to verify this? The international Arctic Buoy program site helps out.
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_northpole.html
You can see the drift and the buoy id’s. One examply bouy that is along the path is 30294. It has a 2009 max ice thickness of 292 cm. Specific information found here:
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2008D.htm
Now the three team members’ biotelemetry data which is (not) supposed for 8 of March is presented. It repeat the same pattern as the figures above.
So they happen to have the same data 8 of March as 2nd of March? And they are constantly swapped to previous time when any webb surfer press the reload buttom! Poor them.
This should really be exposed in the media!
Jack Green (06:54:01) said: “I just visited their site and tried to watch the videos. It’s not video it’s only audio…”
Oh, I’m sure plenty of videos will be available…:
http://therightaddress.co.uk/resources/archive_newsletter/january_2007.pdf
“Pen has seen for himself the indicators of climate change: polar bears and other Arctic wildlife where they
shouldn’t be; polluted atmospheric hazes where once the horizons were pristine, and he relates his observations with passion and science, illustrating his talk with images and dramatic film footage that he has taken himself.”
…from his previous trip(s).
I read the same site when responding the first time. “Fairly valid” does not mean completely valid or even mostly valid. My response still stands, on this planet it cannot be too cold to snow (unless something REALLY drastic happens, in which case we’re all dead anyway).
I had a root about their website and came across this text when I clicked on the Pickup point (aka the North Pole) in their GoogleEarth file:
Pick-up Point
Location 90°N
The Ice Team have all reached the North Pole before, so this is not about reaching the Pole but rather about securing relevant scientific data.
The choice of route has been dictated by the need to obtain the maximum amount of data possible along a scientifically relevant transect. The North Geographic Pole was the natural end point, bearing in mind a tight weather window of about three months.
When the Ice Team are picked up they will have spent approximately 100 days on the ice, trekked across 1200km of sea ice, will have spent around 150 hours swimming across open leads of water and will have consumed over 500,000 calories each.
The complete high-resolution transect (stored on SPRITE, the ice penetrating radar) of the ice will be come available after the end of expedition. These unique findings will be delivered to our global partner (WWF International), who will then present them at the UN Climate Change Conference at Copenhagen in December 2009. It is hoped that this data will help in attempts to produce a binding agreement in the UN’s new climate Change Protocol.
For the sake of their families I hope they do make it back alive. But if the objective of the expedition is as they say, to secure “relevant scientific data” they should quit now and admit that the cold has defeated the technology, if not them. To do that would also save them the prospect of their anticipated 150 hours of arctic swimming (is this a new extreme sport?) and a high risk pickup/rescue from the ice in May.
Yeah, the choice of works isn’t the best. “A valid representation of typical readings” might have been a better way to phrase it.
Mikinator
“Anecdata” – brilliant!
I will be using it from now on and claiming it as my own based on tree rings and other robust evidence
Anothony, I think you need to add an additional update between 5 & 6. After they said the system would be down and prior to saying the data was just for March 8th, they still tried to pass the data off as “live” but delayed.
The first thing to note is that the data is transmitted on a delayed basis; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time. The current intention is to compress this data and relay it back to the UK at the end of each and every day.
BrianMcL (03:39:09)’s post above has the full capture of the intermediate update.
“UPDATE8: A story has now appeared in the BBC that says they may not have any data from their towed sled ice radar unit (known as SPRITE) at all:
Arctic team: London, we have a problem from the BBC
A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organizers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.”
There is your cover story for the upcoming emergency evac the team. This expedition is done thank god.
Simon Harris-Ward, Director of Operations for Catlin Arctic survey told the BBC: “Given the very extreme conditions they are operating in during the Arctic winter we were always going to face potential difficulties with the array of advanced technology despite our robust testing programme.
There’s the message word again – “robust.”
Also, were the biometrics ever factual – it should be relatively easy to see the heart rates confirm activity, e.g. Pen’s drilling bpm rises higher than treking or sleeping bpm. And do they wear the same sensors throughout the expedition? Something doesn’t smell right.
Why are you making this out as one grand conspiracy? This is just a funny story, but you guys are acting like 9/11 Truthers.
REPLY: When an expedition bills itself as one of science, and then they haven’t they intergity to even report to the public that the data on their “live from the ice” web page is in fact not live, and is a repeating loop of data from March 8th, in brings the entire credibility of the mission and any data they may gather into question. This isn’t a case of people imagining things, this is a clear cut case of falsely presented data, and by their own admission after being prodded, show that it is in fact not “live” but a short segment of data from March 8th. – Anthony
“Too cold to snow” is funny… I’ve seen significant snow at -40. All it takes is moist air aloft. Once the snow has formed it’s perfectly happy to fall through that cold air.
And on-topic, I was telling someone I know about this, and they don’t see it as any sort of “bad” thing. So they faked it up a bit, it was designed to “generate awareness”. Yes, they actually used that phrase. “Generate awareness”.
See, to me, when you represent something as a “live feed”, and then don’t actually use a live feed, you have to have a disclaimer somewhere that “these are representative values”. Otherwise there is a name for it: LYING. The obvious conclusion to me is that the entire expedition has established zero credibility, and anything else they say or do can not be believed without further supporting evidence.
Jack Wedel (08:01:42) :
You can see a picture of the augur on the following link:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery/Science_Equipment/1030
My Mk 1 eyeball suggests a diameter of 40 to 50mm
Correction: auger not augur. An augur is a seer or prophet; a soothsayer, although maybe if you use an augur to predict the ice thickness you wouldn’t hve to drill a hole all the way through the ice.
A quick google search for “David Shukman” reveals the guy to be an environmental journalist. Me thinks he’s in on the scam. More lies. “When in a deep hole stop digging.” someone said.
From his article about the failed equipment just now being released A MONTH LATER. Where was this guy in Bali with Pen Hadow having tea?
The drillings have revealed a typical ice thickness of between 1.5 – 2 metres which is far thinner than a previous generation of explorers encountered.
All this data – and any that can be gleaned from the radar system – will be sent to Arctic specialists at the US Navy Postgraduate School in Monterey, California to help assess the likely fate of the ice-cap.
REPLY: PLEASE Don’t jump to conclusions yet, we don’t know it to be a “scam” or that that journalist is involved. That is quite a stretch. All we know for certain is that they have not been forthcoming with their data and situational status until prodded. Folks lets not bring others under the suspicions that Catlin has created all by themselves. – Anthony
On too cold to snow, maybe it’s more like too dry to snow. I’ve lived in interior Alaska quite a bit and it is easy to get the idea that when it’s very cold it can’t snow, because it (very very nearly) never does. Usually it’s very cold because the air is dry, and skies are clear already (not that it can’t snow (or falling ice crystal) out of a clear sky). But then too, it needs to be fairly warm, I don’t know say above -30, to be warm enough to glue enough water together to form a recognizable flake. One of the coolest snow stories I get is from my folks who were living in interior at the time and had had a stretch of cold for several weeks. A powerful storm moved into the gulf and pushed warm moist into the area over the cold stagnant pool of air. At -50, they had a magnificent heavy snow of huge dry flakes for the better part of a day.
B Kerr (07:38:53) : et al
Wonderful bit of humour. Definitely in the Python mould. Sometimes reading these threads can be better than professional comedy.
No; the stunt is to generate awareness to justify more taxes and a failed system of governmental control using so called science. Sorry Anthony if this gets snipped but it’s in response to someone who said at least it generates awareness of GW so it’s OK if they are a little off in their story or stories.
How time flies just seems like yesterday. Yet it is away back in October 2007.
http://plus.maths.org/latestnews/sep-dec07/arctic/index.html
“The results will enable scientists to refine mathematical models that, through equations, link ice thickness to environmental factors like air temperature”
Mathematical models that use equations, what will they think of next.
Hope they not using rx(1-x) for fractional iteration.
Jack Green (09:51:32) :
Shukman is not just an environmental journalist but a “scientific journalist” and he reported that equipment failures were affected by “wind chill adjusted temperatures”. Now is that the science knowledge of the man or the desire to indoctrinate by the BBC???
David Porter (10:03:59) :
B Kerr (07:38:53) : et al
Wonderful bit of humour.
Thanks David, much appreciated.
Hope the chaps get out to Bali.
Always wanted to see the world famous school.
Yes you know the one, Bali High.
Wind Chill adjusted temperatures means the instruments froze. If it were “heat index” it would be melted. Like I said Shukman is a willing accomplice not a scientist.
I wonder what you call a scientist that fudges his work for money, fraud or criminal or what?
I just watched one of the videos from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7897392.stm
and she drops a pot lid onto some rocks in the bottom of a tent while boiling water on March 26th “The Northern Most Cafe”. Why are they carrying rocks with them because there surely there are’nt any rocks out on the open ice a 1000 km from the shoreline? Hmmm. I’ll watch the other videos to see if there are any other clues that they are staging this hoax or at least salting the story with prior videos.
Catalin have mentioned their drilling work
Meanwhile NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center have released their latest sea ice data for the Arctic, showing that the decade-long trend of shrinking sea ice cover is continuing. The new evidence, from satellite observations, also shows that the ice cap is thinning.
Catlin Arctic Survey expedition leader Pen Hadow says that, 37 days into the Project and having drilled into the ice in hundreds of different spots, his observations would seem to support this latest research.
“The drilling experiments I’m doing are showing the ice to be between 1.5 and 2 metres thick”, he told Independent Television News. “Scientists say that means it will not last the summer melt”.
Sorry Anthony. I’ll cool my comments but there certainly is something amiss here. I honestly don’t think these guys are even out on the ice. They might have started to but quickly got into trouble and they are now who knows where, near shore. I would bet a quick check with the air charter folks or rescue authorities up there might clear this up somewhat. There certainly are a lot of big companies lending their name to this like Nokia, Panasonic, etc. They won’t like the negative publicity tarnishing their name.
By making a big deal about the recent thickening, the alarmists have set themselves up for a backlash if this year’s ice extent retreats more slowly than it should, and if there is a pronounced thickening of the ice next year.
Oops–make that “by making a big deal about the recent thinning, …”
[snip – I appreciate the response but I’m not going to let this thread get carried away by 9/11 truther discussions. I’m sorry but I have to nip this in the bud – Anthony]
OK I just watched the video of Ann putting on a frozen coat and it’s not real clear but she’s sitting on a thin foam pad on what looks like a rocky snow covered ground not the floor of a tent that has a sewn in floor. It certainly is not a uniform colored floor you would expect from a tent that has a floor. If it’s a floorless tent then she is sitting on a mottled colored ground. You would think it would be all white if it were ice. From my winter camping experience and taking into account the temperature of the ice in these conditions; that little flimsy REI or thermarest foam pad is not enough to insulate you from -30 Deg F. It says it was shot “a couple of weeks ago” which would be from when they were dropped of on the ice. Hmmmm
” Peter Plail (09:45:57) :
Jack Wedel (08:01:42) :
You can see a picture of the augur on the following link:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery/Science_Equipment/1030
My Mk 1 eyeball suggests a diameter of 40 to 50mm”
I checked the page. Interestingly, all of those picture say they are from Polaris Camp, in the Canada High Arctic. They even show one picture of Pen with somebody named Tarquin Cooper, who is not part of the Ice Team. So that leads me to think the pictures of the drill are from their training camp or from an earlier Hadow Arctic expedition, not this current spring time jaunt. One of the photos even says it is during trials. There are a couple showing Pen pushing a tape measure down the hole he has drilled to measure thickness. Has anybody here tried to hold a tape measure out almost two meters and get an accurate measurement? I have for carpentry work and it is next to impossible unless you have an edge to slip and hook the end of the measure over.
They forget to budget for the polar model of their mass-spectrographic isotopic double-diathermal diaphonoscope and the cables got cold and snapped! Jeepers, I feel for them, about the same thing happened to me one Christmas when I took my brand new deluxe hasbro water rocket outside and the plastic hoses all broke. It makes you want to laugh, but unhappily lives appear to be at stake.
Neil Hampshire,
you are familiar with the word gullible??
I think I will wait till September to decide whether the ice will be smaller or larger this year.
Remember, the summer of 2007 had the smallest recorded ice area in satellite time. It immediately regrew to almost average area. The experts were telling us we were going to see continuing smaller summer extents because the fresh ice was easier to melt and the lack of ice reduced albedo increasing absorption of radiation, and, of course, the continued increase in CO2 meant continued increase in temperatures.
Summer of 2008 the ice was substantially larger than 2007 giving us MORE multi-year ice going into summer 2009.
Oh, I should also mention the atmospheric conditions were perfect for ice melt in 2007 as there was a high pressure area over the arctic that kept the skies clear.
Now, going against the reasons there should be less ice is, the the PDO has gone negative and the NAO has been dropping meaning that the currents contributing to the melt are cooler. Also, in early 2008, the wind and current directions, moving ice out of the arctic to melt, went back to earlier patterns when the melt was lower due to less ice being EXPORTED. (maybe all those AGWers finally stopped putting ice in their drinks??)
Basically the article you mentioned SHAPED the trend by not using 1-2 year old ice as a factor and just skipping from fresh to 2yo and older. It seems more and more there is a STINK to Alarmism that is obvious!!
We also can’t forget the 800 pound gorilla. The sun, and all its proxies, continues quiet, as our host has so well informed us.
With about 60 more days to go on the survey (ending in late MAY or early JUNE) the comment from the linked news story of the rescue of Mr. Hadow may be a “peek” of things to come for the Catlin ice team. From the article…
“Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk. If you are going to put yourself into a spot like this … it really does need to be thought through.”
Anthony – fair enough, but at least read the paper – Prof. Jones et al have put more than their reputations on the line in their quest for truth, and solid scientific investigation like theirs (like the good science on WUWT) should not be sidelined just because the results raise very difficult political questions. It is not just the AGW scam that the mainstream media are perpetuating. Keep up the goog work – loved your armchair research today. (No need to post this).
Maybe the “Live from the Ice” is actually a typo.
Maybe it should read “Lie from the Ice”
Looking through the pictures listed as being from on the ice, it is very hard to tell where the photos have been produced. Some of the headers say they are from Resolute Bay, while others have no location listing. Some show people who are not part of the team. It is very confusing. There is a couple of pictures of Pen drilling in the section titled “Latest Images from the Ice”, but that still dates it back at least to the first resupply at the most recent, and some of the pictures in the set are the same as ones in the set labeled “Resolute Bay”, which was the prep site before they hit the ice.
While I reserve judgment until the expedition is over and we get the story, it does seem that this was predominantly a PR mission.
However I am not surprised. Its been my personal experience that big, government funded science projects stress PR — as that generates more grant money and prestige than mere scientific results can generate.
From the article:”Biotelemetry – Data for March 8th 2009
Please note the above data was collected over a 12 hour period on March 8th. This gives us a fair representation of how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.”
The page doesn’t show current data.
Keith (11:06:30) :
” Peter Plail (09:45:57) :
Jack Wedel (08:01:42) :
You can see a picture of the augur on the following link:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery/Science_Equipment/1030
They even show one picture of Pen with somebody named Tarquin Cooper, who is not part of the Ice Team.”
Somebody name Tarquin Cooper!
How can you forget a name like that.
Pen has a nom de plume, his real name is Rupert
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pen_Hadow
A name like Tarquin!
http://tarquincooper.com/?cat=3
Have a look do you see anyone you recognise.
The future King of England, handing over the Royal Pennant!!
Shukman also cost the BBC a lot of money in damages when he posted an untrue story about a mining company in Africa a few years back. Since then he has been reporting on climate change and accurately parroting the BBC in house line that the ‘consensus is settled’.
Recycling is good though, right? What with Earth Day coming up soon, and all.
Not much else they have there that could be recycled, I wouldn’t think, besides data.
This story is reading like a novel – lots of mystery, intrigue, suspense, and danger.
Time to pop some popcorn!
the Live from the Ice page has become ‘Latest from the Ice’. http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/latestfromtheice. And I tried the XML php file a bit ago, and it is still running, just so you know. I suppose they figured that once they had their lengthy disclaimer written up, they could use it again.
All my hoax buds are tingling.
Kenn Borek Air which are flying in the re-supplies.
Where are they flying them in from. Anyone know the airport? Do they have to file flight plans, freedom of information? Anyone living near there that can watch the next re-supply flight and report time of departure, direction of travel, time of return.
Likely there is no spoon, sorry I mean flight.
Capricorn One.
Nuff said.
Reread the information at the bottom of the page. I says the data is from Mar. 8 and is a fair representation of the biometrics of the crew. Not an all together straight forward approach but they do state the information is not live.
REPLY: Yes NOW they say that, yesterday, and all the way back to March 8th, they presented it as “live” data. If WUWT had not intervened, it would likely still be presented that way. That note was just added this AM – Anthony
Stellar distances aren’t these measured by categorising variable stars called Cepheid variables (or something similar) and also by red shift in the spectrum. ??
RE: Brian Johnson (07:52:52) :
“Or am I going to have to use my Easter of four nails, a hammer and two planks and nail me to a cross!”
Brian. Can you cross your feet please. We only have budget for three nails…
Jack Green (10:32:20) :
Careful – while the text says March 26th, nothing says the video is from the same date. It might be file footage during testing before the expedition started.
The lens & air were sufficiently fogged that I’m not even sure there was a rock, she might have dropped it on “a big sack of snow” (now empty). Before thinking that something may appear was you want it to be, run it through the “is this possible”, “is this likely”, and “what would a news producer do” filters first.
The temps might occasionally get too cold to snow but during the ice ages the northern hemisphere was buried in a mile of ice so “too cold to snow” mustn’t have happened too frequently.
The Catlin website does state they’re flying from Resolute, and Kenn Borek Air have an office at Resolute. I doubt very much that they have to file official flight plans, it’s not like they’ll encounter a lot of traffic up there.
I don’t doubt that the expedition is actually on the ice, it’s just that the data collection and feed is a POS.
You have got to be kidding me*! I’d love to see the scientific paper that uses that data.
* that was sarcasm.
It works for me.
REPLY: it didn’t work when I posted the update7. Work now for me too. -Anthony
Anthony. In answer to MikeN you say “this is a clear cut case of falsely presented data, and by their own admission after being prodded, show that it is in fact not “live” but a short segment of data from March 8th.”
It’s actually seems to be data since the 2nd of April. The three values from a screenshot chillybean refere to (if it exists) are in the same position for Ann, Pen and Martin. So they are still wrong about 8 of April. 🙂 No big sensation…
I agree with Pamela, that that this seems to be record poor science, and just propaganda. If they wouldn’t have had the cold temperatures they may have been heroes. Maybe they still can be spinned as heroes, but the BBC article about “a problem” shows – besides that they can’t count on being picked up after late April and – that they will be taken home quite soon.
Also MikeN is right, that speculations about this taken place in Canada has its truthers pattern, but this isn’t serious. (Easter beer? It may be funny since the AGW horror is full of lies. Oops, sorry my cognitive disorder. Especially this close to Copenhagen 2009…)
If this audit wouldn’t have been done the Catlin project may had been able to say thin ice forced them to leave earlier… You’re doing a great great job! Anyone not too broken should test the PayPal feature.
UPDATE8: A story has now appeared in the BBC that says they may not have any data from their towed sled ice radar unit (known as SPRITE) at all:
Arctic team: London, we have a problem from the BBC
A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.
Perhaps this wonderous, robust technology has been supplied by “Green Enterprises Inc”…
B Kerr
“A name like Tarquin!
http://tarquincooper.com/?cat=3
Have a look do you see anyone you recognise.
The future King of England, handing over the Royal Pennant!!”
And if you scroll further down, you see a picture of Cooper with Hadow that matches the set from the Catlin site. It is part of the blog for December 31, 2008. This confirms that that set of pictures about the equipment were all from preparatory exercises at their training site in Canada, which (according to the Catlin website – http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/preparation ) was at Broughton Island for two weeks. And training was apparently done a bit earlier than the website says it was.
Also, Broughton Island is at 67 N Latitude, 64 W Longitude, and it was -40 degrees during training. You would think going further North that they would expect conditions to be worse, even if it was closer to spring.
Is there an actual “crew” out there or is it also “virtual”?
“It’s actually seems to be data since the 2nd of April. The three values from a screenshot chillybean refere to (if it exists) ”
Of course it exists, I don’t have anything to lie about.
Here is my desktop screenshot and an insight into my “pointless” life. (Not really I have a good life & enjoy every minute)
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/9540/screencaptureo.png
What I find most disappointing is that I was trying to stick up for these guys as I thought they were just misguided greenies. Now I feel that they are are deliberately misleading people. What about all those school children that are running projects on the biometrics and plotting their heroic efforts.
Shameful.
Reply: Curious about catering-ego small. Otherwise, looks like a developer’s desktop ~ charles the no smiley moderator
Joshua Nieuwsma (12:21:47) :
the Live from the Ice page has become ‘Latest from the Ice’.
I noticed that, too, although posting month-old data as the ‘latest’ isn’t a huge improvement in honesty, unless that’s when everything stopped working!
Their website says “The next leg will bring 24 hours daylight allowing the team further opportunity to progress north whilst surveying increasing amounts of sea ice each day.” yet Google Earth shows there is still about 7 hours of night at this time of the year at that latitude. I can understand 24 hours of daylight as we get closer to the summer solstice but we’re only 3 weeks past the equinox!
At their current rate of progress they’ll need another 100 days to reach the pole.
What are the chances that they will be pulled off the ice early (for survival reasons) but that this will be spun as ‘safety’ because alleged thinning ice makes resupply too dangerous? Just a thought…
You guys might be interested in these other polar expeditions going on right now – not so (supposedly) high tech but the main one Peary-Henson Centennial Expedition just passed the 87′ latitude ~ blogs and photos
The auger doesn’t look long enough to go through 2m of ice. Do they have shorter and longer versions? Or maybe the guy carrying it is 2.5m tall?
“Curious about catering-ego small.”
Had to rebuild my force 10 cooker on my yacht, an “energy regulator” failed and they wanted silly money for a replacement appx £100 for one control so I improvised & rewired it with more modern technology E.G.O are a cooker spares supplier, nothing exciting I’m afraid. Or Maybe it was “Exciting Global Orange” or “Exhaust Gases Out” or … any suggestions.
Reply: Truth is always more mundane than runaway speculation. ~ charles the endless imagination moderator
How long would they have left this hidden without WUWT’s massive presence?
Some of the ice must be lost by sublimation rather than melting, just as the size of the ice cubes in your refrigerator’s freezer get smaller if not used in a long time. No idea of how significant a factor this is, but it will depend on the average wind velocity over the surface, its humidity and the temperature (below 0 C.)
Point taken. However, it can also be too dry to rain on a warm summer day too. The fact remains, it can’t be too cold to snow. The amount of snow may not be “a lot”, but several days or weeks of not “a lot” will build up.
I am not, by any stretch of the imagination a scientist, although I have been educated in chemistry, physics and zoology. I am a (retired) policeman with over thirty years service. My career has made me a confirmed sceptic (English, and correct, spelling) with regards to just about everything which is presented to me without any evidence which will stand up to close scrutiny.
I have been following this Arctic expedition since it started because I could not discern any good reason for their undertaking despite their protestations of “scientific enquiry”.
Apart from the anomalous biometric data which has been examined at length above I have been looking (with a sceptical eye) at some of the videos on both the BBC and Catlin websites. My personal experience of “cold” is limited to the slight frosts to which the south of England is sometimes subjected. In those comparatively benign conditions I have noted that the colder it is the denser becomes the vapour of my exhaled breath.
If I were to be in a tent wherein I was attempting to don frozen clothing I would expect that I would be exhaling dense clouds of vapour. If I was not, and that would require the inside temperature of the tent to be sufficiently high as to preclude vapour formation, then I would simply have left my clothing to thaw naturally before trying to put it on. Other videos of a similar nature from this expedition also appear to lack the presence of visible breath vapour other than in those depicting the preparations for the expedition.
This single anomaly in a criminal case which I was investigating would have been sufficient to have warranted a much more detailed examination of the veracity of every statement made by all members of the entire team involved.
I cast no aspersions at this time on anyone involved. I simply state that there exists sufficient reason for a much more detailed examination of this entire episode.
My experience indicates to me that the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth is NOT being told.
At this point, this “science” expedition has likely been reduced to a guy randomly poking a hundred or so holes in sea ice and screaming Eureka! I have found sea water.
More could have been accomplished by going ice fishing in Minnesota. Could have caught some fish.
“Trevor (12:35:25) :
Stellar distances aren’t these measured by categorising variable stars called Cepheid variables (or something similar) and also by red shift in the spectrum. ??”
Stellar distances are measured using geometry (parallax). They measured some stars (I think you are correct Cepheid variables) that they believe have a constant brightness, at least those close enough to measure directly did. They then use a model of brightness versus distance to estimate the distance of Cepheid stars that are more distant. Based on these estimates and the relative red-shift of these more distant stars they estimate the distance of further out objects using the Red shift. The numbers are therefore a bit approximate. I can not remember the story exactly but they have gotten better at the geometry part and measured some stars they had previously estimated and came up with number that were off 30% or so, don’t remember if they were closer or farther.
When you start getting to really distant objects the distant estimate start to depend a lot on cosmological models and the effect of the models on Red Shift.
Reply: Cepheid variables don’t have a constant brightness. They appear to have have a luminosity that correlates to their periodicity. By measuring distance to those within the reaches of the parallax method, astronomers established a metric by which they could estimate the absolute luminosity of more distant stars by their period, thus establishing another way to estimate their distance from their absolute luminosity vs. their observed luminosity. ~ charles the oversimplifying moderator.
Jack Green (10:23:39) :
I wonder what you call a scientist that fudges his work for money, fraud or criminal or what?
—————–
Depends which country they live in, i.e. whether or not prostitution is legal there !!
NoAstronomer (12:51:45) – There probably would not be a flight plan per se, as there would be nowhere to close it on landing, although brief stopovers would be permissible under Visual Flight Rules. More likely Kenn Borak Air would have a ‘flight notification’ with a responsible person (likely their Resolute Bay office) not with Air Traffic Control. If the aircraft did not return within a reasonable time, then search & rescue services would be alerted (and expect a long response time…). At those high latitudes, satellite telephones relying on geosynchronous orbit satellites might not be accessible, so polar orbit satellites with the inherent regular losses of ‘below the horizon’ positioning would be the means of communication – I assume! HF radios are notoriously unreliable in the Arctic (although the lack of sunspots should help); I was once in sight of Frobisher Bay (now Iqaluit) and had to relay messages through Sondestrom, Greenland to communicate – but that was a time of high aurora activity. The Arctic is no place for amateurs – several thousand Inuit no doubt died developing the survival skills necessary, so three Brits trying to reinvite the wheel (or toboggan) don’t cut it.
“No mention of being air lifted off of the ice when he was going short on nuts, and dried fruit.”
Hmmmm….seems lke he was plenty nuts.
Wally (14:57:15) :
“Trevor (12:35:25) :
Stellar distances aren’t these measured by categorising variable stars called Cepheid variables (or something similar) and also by red shift in the spectrum. ??”
Stellar distances are measured using geometry (parallax). They measured some stars (I think you are correct Cepheid variables) that they believe have a constant brightness, at least those close enough to measure directly did. […]
That is almost correct, but variables don’t have constant brightness 🙂 Parallax measurement is possible for stars that are very close. Cepheid stars are variable stars that have a close relation between absolute luminosity and their period. So by measuring the period of a Cepheid star you can estimate the absolute luminosity. By measuring the observed magnitude using photometry, you can then compute the distance since the relation between observed and absolute magnitude is known. This works for a range of distances, but eventually other methods must be used, like redshift.
“Reply: Cepheid variables don’t have a constant brightness. They appear to have have a luminosity that correlates to their periodicity. By measuring distance to those within the reaches of the parallax method, astronomers established a metric by which they could estimate the absolute luminosity of more distant stars by their period, thus establishing another way to estimate their distance from their absolute luminosity vs. their observed luminosity. ~ charles the oversimplifying moderator.”
Thank you for the correction, as I hit the post button, I thought “was it constant brightness or just a good function of their variability”. It has been 30 years since Astronomy 101, but at least I did get an A back then.
Reply: 32 years for me. ~ charles the old decaying moderator
Recycling biometric data, hmm, to paraphrase a certain doctor – “They’re dead Jim”
JimB (03:33:10) :
“hand warmer” I can think of that would prevent any residual water from freezing would be a torch, and only if you could get it lit at that temp.
I tried to melt the ice on my driveway with a 600 degree weed burner this winter when it was 15 outside, no luck. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
This blog keeps me semi-sane, thanks to all of the writers and brilliant scientific and humorous comment makers. Thanks for a tiny window on reality while all the liberal groupthink nuts are stinkin’ thinkin’ on drugs or something. You guys are GOOD! Keep up the questions!
A fairly comprehensive treatise on satellite-based ‘phone’ systems (albeit cicra ’98) and coverage (and orbit scheme employed) for a number of non-geosynchonous systems can be found here:
http://personal.ee.surrey.ac.uk/Personal/L.Wood/constellations/tables/overview.html
James P (14:16:18) :
What are the chances that they will be pulled off the ice early (for survival reasons) but that this will be spun as ’safety’ because alleged thinning ice makes resupply too dangerous? Just a thought…
If they hadn’t already planned this as the way to end this farce, they have now!
Flints (23:04:14) :
After watching those videos a couple of times each, it’s clear that there’s no visible breath being exhaled. But both Hadow and Martin have their gloves on, implying that it’s too cold to be bare-handed.
Constantly mugging for the camera, Martin keeps blowing on his gloves like he’s trying to warm his frozen fingers. But there is no vapor when he exhales on his hands, loudly and with great fanfare, several times. At the very end, Martin also sits on the minus 40° snow on the ground, right between the foam pads that have separated, but he doesn’t seem to notice.
Conclusion: they’re both somewhere a lot warmer than minus 40°, and they’re putting on a show. Martin had probably just pulled his jacket out of the freezer on the set.
Something doesn’t add up. Call me a skeptic. [Or if you’re Stephen Brown, call me a sceptic.]
If it was just the gloves and no visible breath, there might be an explanation. Like maybe it was warm in the tent, and they were both trying on a new pair of gloves.
[Ri-i-i-i-ght.]
But with all the other questions being raised about the fake live data, the too-short augers, the measuring of exactly 1.06 meters [through a hand drilled, and probably not an exactly vertical hole], and with their ‘robust’ equipment all failing so now we’ll just have to take their word for it, etc., I don’t believe anything they or the BBC say any more, unless it’s independently verified. Those videos, at least, look like they were entirely staged.
So to make lemonade from the lemons… if there are any authors here, there are probably enough pics and information already to start a tell-all book, or at least a good sized magazine article. I’d buy the book — especially if it came out right before the inevitable Hadow book is published.
You can’t keep many secrets with the number of people involved with this, so eventually the truth should come out. Hadow’s flaky past would add some juicy facts, too. And the other shady characters in that same clique, including the financial backers, surely have a past similar to
Rupert’sPen’s. And there are the pilot’s quotes. There’s even a royal prince in the mix!But for now, I just want to know why we can’t see someone’s breath, in two separate videos, when they’re supposedly exhaling in minus 40° dry air. We should be able to easily see the vapor from their exhaling even if the temperature was above freezing.
One does wonder why they don’t help each other get dressed if it’s so difficult.
Bill Jamison (14:16:10) :
Well, let’s see. My handy-dandy 30 year old program for such things says:
2009 Catlin, Latitude 83:53 Longitude 129:00
Date Rise Set Light Civil Naut Astro Decln Height
...
Feb 22 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -9:55 -3:48
Mar 1 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -7:18 -1:11
Mar 8 8:18A 3:16P 6:58 3:26 **:** **:** -4:35 1:32
Mar 15 6:22A 5:07P 10:45 3:30 **:** **:** -1:50 4:17
Mar 22 4:36A 6:50P 14:14 **:** **:** **:** 0:56 7:03
Mar 29 2:31A 8:50P 18:19 **:** **:** **:** 3:41 9:48
Apr 5 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** 6:22 12:29
Apr 12 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** 8:58 15:05
So yeah, they’re in 24 hour daylight. The Sun’s declination on Apr 9 is 7:52, call it 8 degrees, so the lowest the sun gets at 84N should be 2 degrees. (At the NP the center of the Sun would be 8 degrees above the horizon, 6 degrees away it would be 2 above at local midnight.
In the above table length is HH:MM of daylight, civil is length of civil twilight (Sun 0 to 6 degrees below the horizon), nautical is 0-12, astro is 0-18.
From the biological standpoint and considering the biotelemetry data, they all are dead… 🙂
OK, I’ve tried to follow the thread, but it’s ridiculously long. I may have missed an important post. Perhaps one of the more code-savvy responders could provide an update about the page that was supposed to contain biometric data.
One poster said that this entire issue with the recycling data was simply a bug… that the data was supposed to be added, but a simple miscode stopped capturing data once a set amount of data was collected from the biometric devices on the individuals.
Other folks have stated that the page has hard coded data… meaning that there wasn’t even a command to look for regularly updated information… that it was simply recycling the data that was already coded.
Those are pretty different conclusions… which is it? Or, IS there a way to actually determine what’s happening?
Thanks!
Bruce
BDAABAT
The Catlin website has been updated since this was discovered. It now says this:
Draw your own conclusions
On the original subject, Joshua Nieuwsma brings up a good point regarding the date stamp on the data. Robert David Graham brings up a good point as to how their presentation of the data may not be intentionally falsified.
However, if the data is being retrieved as a data call (which is likely as Robert pointed out) then the date/time will certainly also need to be included (likely for every record) otherwise it makes the job of reconstituting the stream nearly impossible. Does anyone know of any type of physical data logging system that does NOT record the exact time along with the stream of data?
At issue with people who attempt to produce a scientific experiment is overcoming one’s own personal bias. I had noticed earlier today denigrating comments about the underlying purpose of Anthony’s initial exploration of this issue with the data. I appreciate his calls for restraint of forming an opinion before enough of the facts are in regarding what, if any, the purpose of this expedition is.
That being said, has anyone considered the very real possibility that they are intentionally drilling these holes to reduce the size of the Arctic?? Think of it – literally *hundreds* of holes! I only worry that they are in the Hansen’s pocket and are attempting to correct the natural accumulation of ice… by hand. I seem to recall a map of the Arctic (I think it was from from the NSIDC) that showed all of these little holes in the Arctic… 2+2 folks.
Maybe I’ll stick with programming and leave the jokes to the bears. Hopefully the people pushing for policy change will leave the science to the scientists… ditto for the advertisers.
Appears the expedition was previously named “Vanco Arctic Survey” and they originally planned to start waddling from Barrow to the North Pole, in the same amount of time (100 days), but the trip was to be 2000km.
Here’s an article that will really garner trust in any data:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7036058.stm
“Mr Hadow said: “I feel like a bit of a donkey to be honest; all I’m really going to be doing is pulling this hugely heavy sledge with this incredibly hi-tech gadgetry which can measure the exact thickness of the icecap.”
[…]
“Every 20km, the team will also be drilling ice cores to calibrate the radars and investigate snow and ice density.”
http://www.martinhartley.com/portfolio/expeditions/arctic/CAS08_DIG_3873/
Does the Catlin team actually carry a drill bit that can penetrate 4 meter thick ice? I originally questioned the necessity and advisability of sending a team to conduct this research. Frankly it seemed like an excuse to get funding for what they wanted to do anyway. Adventurers frequently come up with hare-brained excuses to cloak their boondoogles with respectability.
At this time, I am doubting everything about the Catlin “Arctic Survey”. Reading some of the posts from the ice, about never giving up etc. And then it turns out that most of equipment needed for this vital scientic effort isn’t even functional. Once the instrumentation quits, it is witless to continue, get off the ice before others are endangered (again), for no valueable purpose.
It seems that they are dragging their butts and sleds across the ice to drill a few holes in a shifting ice sheet (if they actually have a 12 + foot bit with them.) not quite the same as continous radar metrics of the ice thickness, is it? It’s a put on!
“But for now, I just want to know why we can’t see someone’s breath, in two separate videos, when they’re supposedly exhaling in minus 40° dry air. We should be able to easily see the vapor from their exhaling even if the temperature was above freezing.”
I think this is suspicious certainly, but just to throw out a possible innocent explanation, could it simply be a low-end video camera that can’t pick up the vapor due to resolution or lighting issues? Also, I was watching the video of one guy putting on a frozen coat in a yellow tent. Periodically, it looked a little hazy in there, which I thought could have been vapor from the breath of the person holding the camera.
On a more technical note, a couple of the videos/pictures shown on both the BBC site and the Catlin site show the sledges being pulled over trenched or crevassed ice. Does anyone have any idea of the methodology they use to select the sites to measure thickness of the ice. Presumably this thickness varies quite a bit, and if these pictures are any indication, the variance is large even over a small area, such that site selection – unless it’s adequately randomized with a large number of samples – will have an enormous impact on the average thickness measured.
I’m not quite sure what they hope to achieve. So far they have demonstrated two things:
1)The crew is showing great courage and determination.
2) The Arctic is cold and mostly dark with a rugged terrain composed of snow and ice as far as the eye can see, kind of like one would expect.
The lighting on the BBC tent video seems wrong. If it is coming from a direction it would seem to be above them. It’s not coming from the camera. The tent is lit from the outside. Shouldn’t it be lower, or coming from the south side of the tent? This isn’t my field with sun angles and stuff, but would that lighting be plausible at anytime of the day, in Arctic in late March, early April?
“it turns out that most of equipment needed for this vital scientic effort isn’t even functional”
It is hard to make gear work when it is that cold. The values of the various components drift, the properties of semiconductors change, etc. At one point in my life I was a liaison between production and engineering for a manufacturer of military electronics gear. One of the devices had to undergo a cold soak at -60C and then have power applied and be fully operational within thirty seconds of power-up. A lot of the gear Most units didn’t pass that test the first time. The hardest thing was getting the oscillator for the switching power supply to start. About half the units out of production wouldn’t even turn on after an hour soak at -60C.
If you are ever in a situation where you are in temperatures below, say, -30 and you have gear that your life is depending on, you are best to not shut it off once you get it running.
The ice drilling is augmentary.
“After a small hole is made in the ice (Using the Mora Ice Drill) this CTD is lowered from just under the ice to a depth of 300m at about 0.5 m/s”
Googled “Mora Ice Drill” found this:
http://www.strikemaster.com/mora_hand.html
It does not appear to be the same as the core drill in some of the pictures from latest images:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery/Latest_Images_from_the_Ice
The images seem to show a core drill which is very different than an ice drill that seems to be designed for fishing. I’m not sure why they would use a core drill since it would be more difficult to drill and they apparently are not collecting core samples of the ice.
I did not see any extensions available for the Mora ice drill at the website but I do know that drills CAN be extended easily if extensions are available. The extensions would probably be about 3′ long.
Another thing about that frozen clothes video, between 1:19 and 1:21 seconds the top of the tent separates from the sides of the tent. Right over the guys left shoulder. You can see outside. I am not a camper, much less an arctic camper, but why would the top of your tent just be a loose covering?
The link is http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962021.stm
john (12:34:39):
Reread the information at the bottom of the page. I says the data is from Mar. 8 and is a fair representation of the biometrics of the crew. Not an all together straight forward approach but they do state the information is not live.
REPLY: Yes NOW they say that, yesterday, and all the way back to March 8th, they presented it as “live” data. If WUWT had not intervened, it would likely still be presented that way. That note was just added this AM – Anthony
In my humble opinion, after WUWT intervention, those people decided to “amend” the charade. I can state here and everywhere that most of those biotelemetry reports don’t coincide with any human biosystem real conditions. It’s true that some people can enjoy of a low heartbeat frequency, for example enthusiastic athletes, but one thing is unavoidable: if one’s heart is beating fast for one’s body’s requirement of oxygen due to debilitating exercise, the ventilation rate would be increased because the blood system also needs an increased oxygenation rate at the respiratory tissue level. Martin’s scans are discordant on this respect. A pill not swallowed immediately after the old one was discharged? I don’t think so.
jeez:
OK: That backing and filling explanation sounds exactly like something a British Bovine Fecal Purveyance Specialist would write. [No offense intended to the good guys here.]
Hey, for all we know, our intrepid explorers might really be in some serious danger up there: click
And I still want to know why there’s no visible breath at minus 40°. I wonder how a BBFPS would explain it?
I also found this drill with an optional extension that is about 18″ long… You’d have to buy a bunch of those extensions…
http://www.bushgear.co.uk/index.php?option=com_virtuemart&page=shop.product_details&flypage=shop.flypage&product_id=191&Itemid=64&vmcchk=1&Itemid=64
I can’t believe that no one here has figured out that the moisture in their breath is simply freezing solid and falling onto their tongues BEFORE it has a chance to be expelled… That is how incredibly cold it is there in the studio, gentlemen and ladies…
This is very telling. While the true believers blythely (or blindly) accepted the biometrics at face value, it took a bunch of “flat earthers” to discover, and then validate what was actually going on. Very telling, indeed. Quite the poster child for what sometimes passes for science these days.
So they faked it up a bit, it was designed to “generate awareness”.
Perhaps Anthony’s surface station project should get some nudes into the site pictures?
Watch the videos closely guys. Those are rocks. If the tents were set up on ice without a floor then they would be all white. You can hear the pot lid hit the rocks. The BBC video says it’s from the Crew and the title says THURSDAY 26 MARCH – DAY 27 – THE NORTHERNMOST CAFE which would be on the ice.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7897392.stm
Watch the videos and tell me they aren’t sitting on something that’s not totally white which would be ice or snow. Read the wrapped text and tell me where it says this is not from out on the ice flows. This whole thing is a hoax.
After thinking about the comments regarding the video clips – I watched the ones that were just being referred to and I see tents that have large, unmelted areas of snow on their tent floor – what I would expect sand would do if people were camping on a beach and entering and leaving with boots and thick clothing.
In the NORTHERNMOST CAFE bit all of the questions regarding condensation – especially from breath I believe is quite visible here. I found that the steam arising from the dishes behaved in a rather believable manner that would suggest the tent pressure was oscillating from wind impacting the side of the tent.
I think that much of the talk about this being a “hoax” is simply banter – we, as a group, have been on the short end of the stick and suffering through bad science pols getting the big prizes. Taking a step back, a reasonable surmise of the situation would indicate that the mission was for media effect primarily, but that the adventurers are playing at being scientific explorers. They’re drilling holes and taking pictures and blogging their journal entries, and, and… and there’s no principle behind why they’re doing it except to get stuff on camera.
I am guessing that the people who are seriously going to try to make this into a “Scientific” journey are just collecting media moments until they have enough of a story that will make a good copy. Once they have a good copy, that is what they will run with. Not a hoax… more of a PR mission. But as the moderators have pointed out – this is only conjecture at this point and we are merely reviewing the data as it is presented in the light of the information that we know.
And occasionally we make fun of the Goracle minions because it is fun.
What we all might consider is – just why a massive political campaign to convince us of global warming – resorts to cheap theatrics? It is not difficult to predict the failure of silicon-based electronics at -40C degree temps. Nor the inability to upload realtime data from a variety of sensors whilst treking some 12-15km per day.
The underlying question is, do the people on Earth need soap-opera-like catastrophic newscasts and PR stunts to modify behavior? And should there not be multiple points of view available to the public so they can determine what side to come down on? I happen to believe the original intention of the AGW campaign was preservation of life. But artificial life? And at what cost?
I believe human beings deserve the unwashed truth. With that, they can enable policy which may make or break their ability to survive.
Smokey (18:49:34):
Hey, for all we know, our intrepid explorers might really be in some serious danger up there: click
Penguins are intelligent birds, they don’t live with polar bears… 😉
Doubtville:
“The underlying question is, do the people on Earth need soap-opera-like catastrophic newscasts and PR stunts to modify behavior?”
YES
” And should there not be multiple points of view available to the public so they can determine what side to come down on? ”
NO, ABSOLUTELY
“I happen to believe the original intention of the AGW campaign was preservation of life. But artificial life? And at what cost?
I believe human beings deserve the unwashed truth. With that, they can enable policy which may make or break their ability to survive.”
Unfortunately not applicable to the topic of AGW. I wonder… what is the carbon footprint of the unwashed truth? Also, with LA water rationing I don’t know how clean you could get it.
@ Katlab (18:24:49) :
“The lighting on the BBC tent video seems wrong. If it is coming from a direction it would seem to be above them. It’s not coming from the camera. The tent is lit from the outside. Shouldn’t it be lower, or coming from the south side of the tent? This isn’t my field with sun angles and stuff, but would that lighting be plausible at anytime of the day, in Arctic in late March, early April?”
The sun is not the only lightsource, especially with the low angle of the sun in the artic the skydome itself plays an important role in lighting a scene like this. So yes it may well look like light comming from above.
I have no doubt that they (the Catlin expedition) have been on the ice, the question is [b]”Are they still on the ice or do they pretend to be?”[/b]
So far i haven’t seen any conclusive evidence that they still are, the reputation of the expedition leader is one wich raises questions and the fact that he uses the same pilots/company (who had to airlift them from the ice in 2003) for resupply missions suggest to me that they might be safe at home.
Correction to the verse: Penguins are smarty birds; they don’t live with polar bears… 😉
Shawn F. (19:30:12):
After thinking about the comments regarding the video clips – I watched the ones that were just being referred to and I see tents that have large, unmelted areas of snow on their tent floor – what I would expect sand would do if people were camping on a beach and entering and leaving with boots and thick clothing.
Yes, you’re right on this and on breath condensation seen on the video; I saw it also. The problem is the misleading biotelemetry data. During a month the group showed the data like updated records. In addition, it seems to be that at no moment they notified their website visitors about any failure or unsuitability on the biotelemetry sensors.
hmm looks like a ploy to get lots of research dollars. Did they actually go to the Arctic at all?
Hmmmm – A Possible scenario for how this could all end.
Black Over Ice.
FADE IN.
OUTSIDE: LATE EVENING – APRIL – ARCTIC SEA ICE.
– A weary group of three explorers, two men and one woman trudge across the ice. A pair of scientists, and their photographer, on a heroic mission to measure the rapidly thinning arctic ice.
Leader: (Stops, lifts GPS Unit and examines readout) “Stop chaps – This is the resupply point”.
Woman: “Thank goodness – I’m exhausted – Oh the Cold – the Cold. – Are we on time?”
Photographer: (Clumsily Drops Camera – Mutters) “Damn frostbite.”
Leader: (Responds) “30 minutes and the resupply plane will be here.”
– The three unpack the equipment sled and assemble the tent that will protect them from the numbing cold.
CUT TO.
INTERIOR: HELICOPTER
– 3 Men in dark suits, sit in the helicopter cabin. The final rays of the setting sun slash across the shining ice. In the distance can be seen the bright orange expedition tent.
– The man in the rear seat lifts a military grade, .50 calibre sniper rifle and loads the first bullet into the chamber.
CUT TO.
INTERIOR: EXPEDITION TENT
Woman: (Cocks Head) “I can hear something.”
Leader: “It’s the resupply plane!”
Photographer: (Turns to Leader) “I’ve gotta leave on this flight – I’m dying on this f#@king ice.”
Leader: (Outraged): “You will not! Are you a coward? – We’re saving the bloody planet out here!”
Photographer: (Rips off glove, revealing a hand reeking with decaying flesh) “What the hell is this then?”
Leader: (Puffs out chest): “A necessary Sacrifice. You can’t do great things without Sacrifice, and proving this ice is melting is a Great Thing.”
Photographer: (Grimaces) “It’s bloody minus 35 degrees out there… All our equipment is broken!”
Leader: (Triumph gleaming in his eyes – lifts an ice auger). “We have this – and it’s enough. – Now get the hell outside.”
Photographer: (Hangs head…) “Alright… Alright…”
– The photographer and the woman both exit the tent; the Leader puts the ice auger down and pats it affectionally before following them outside.
CUT TO:
EXTERIOR: EXPEDITION TENT – ON THE ICE
– The three explorers stare up at the hovering, black helicopter, as the side door smoothly rolls back.
Woman: (Non-plussed) “Why is it a black helicopter?”
Photographer: “Oh.. Damn!”
– The photographer turns and starts to run away from the tent, the helicopter floats like a stone 10 meters above the ice, the final rays of the sun flash off the tinted windscreen – a matt black barrel slides through the open doorway – a sudden gun shot rings out.
– The photographer pitches forward through a red mist of his own blood and collapses onto the ice.
– The woman screams and runs for the tent; a second gun shot cracks like a whip through the twilight. She falls before the tent, her blood gushing from a gaping wound in her chest.
Leader: (Outraged): “What on Earth is going on? Stop this at once!”
– The leader waves both arms widely. The matt black barrel pivots slightly to bear upon him.
Leader: (Screaming with rage): “I order you to stop! Stop I say – Land that Helicopter Immediately!”
– A single shot rings out. The Leader falls back onto the ice, a look of stunned disbelief on his face, his head rolls to the side and he can see the Sun sliding below the ice as he utters his final words in a soft voice.
Leader: (Faintly, Dying): “But, we’re saving the planet”.
– With a smooth roar of power the helicopter rises up and turns away, the gun disappears and the door slides smoothly back into place.
CUT TO:
OVERHEAD SHOT:
– Tent door flaps in the breeze, the three bodies lie about like discarded refuse on pink ice. A pair of Polar Bears enters the field of view and saunter over to the nearest piece of available meat.
CUT TO:
INTERIOR: MORNING – LONDON OFFICE
– The office is expansive and opulent; a large Van Gogh graces one wall, and a sculpture by Rodin stands in the corner. The office windows behind a magnificent desk overlook the heart of the London Financial District. A very well dressed executive sits at the desk, before him stands his head of public relations and media advisor.
– The executive taps on the front page of a written report on the desk in front of him.
Executive: “So, no Polar Bears are in the report.”
Advisor: “Yes Sir, Polar Bears are of course – how might one say it – cuddly.”
Executive: (Nods) “Just so. – And the deaths are attributed to – what?”
Advisor: “The ice, certainly, it was the thinning ice that killed them, they fell through it you see, drowned in the icy waters, and the bodies were never recovered. A Tragedy”
Executive: (Leans back, considering…) “And evidence, do we have some evidence.”
Advisor: (Lifts a cloth bag onto the desk and opens it, withdrawing a small, 2 foot, ice auger) “We have this, the leaders very own ice auger.”
Executive: “His own auger?”
Advisor: (Shrugs) “Well a shorter copy.” (Arches eyebrow) “There is of course, no one who can say otherwise”.
Executive: (Studies the Auger…) “So the ice is less than 2 feet thick. They fall through it, and drown.”
Advisor: (Smug) “Precisely sir.”
Executive: (Smiles) “Excellent. Put it on the wire, this has to have maximum coverage.”
Advisor: (Straightens) “Consider it done sir.”
Executive: “Announce a Charity ball to honour their sacrifice, and charge a 1000 pounds a head, set up the presenters and invite the Prince – he’s always good for an endorsement.”
Advisor: (Smiles) “I will get back to you with location, dates and a guest list Sir.”
Executive: “Good work.”
– The Advisor leaves and the Executive is left alone in his office. He walks over too the wide window and looks out over the city, his city as he likes to think of it. There is a light dusting of snow still falling, it’s late April. He absently twirls the auger in his hand. He puts the other hand on the Rodin, stroking the smooth marble; it has always reassured him, this statue, its permanence, its beauty, its silky smooth touch.
Executive: (Quietly to himself): “So much to do.” (Glances at the autumn snow) “And so little time to do it.”
FADE OUT.
Robert van der Veeke,
Just a tip:
[b]“Are they still on the ice or do they pretend to be?”[/b]
Use arrows instead brackets to bold the text:
“Are they still on the ice or do they pretend to be?” (No interspaced)
I agree with you. It seems they are now on another more comfortable location far from the intended research path.
Okay they apparently have a 5 meter ice drill… I guess Mora is a sponsor.
“The Mora Nova ice drill is providing answers to global warming questions. ”
http://www.moraofsweden.com/index.php?cid=452
Graeme Rodaughan (20:15:48) :
“Hmmmm – A Possible scenario for how this could all end.
Black Over Ice. ”
Presumably the Rodin is none other than a clever reproduction of “The Thinker.”
Aside: “black over ice” infers a catastrophic change in albedo. “Your seat back is a flotation device in the unlikely event of a water landing.”
Doubtville (20:38:54) :
Graeme Rodaughan (20:15:48) :
“Hmmmm – A Possible scenario for how this could all end.
Black Over Ice. ”
Presumably the Rodin is none other than a clever reproduction of “The Thinker.”
Aside: “black over ice” infers a catastrophic change in albedo. “Your seat back is a flotation device in the unlikely event of a water landing.”
“The Thinker” – Could be – Hope that it was entertaining.
Shawn F. (20:01:49) :
“Also, with LA water rationing I don’t know how clean you could get it.”
Yeah. Serious point. Like Jake’s partner said… “Forget it Jake… It’s Chinatown.”
Shawn F. (17:25:36) 09/04/09
“”That being said, has anyone considered the very real possibility that they are intentionally drilling these holes to reduce the size of the Arctic?? Think of it – literally *hundreds* of holes!””
You are assuming the ice will “tear along the dotted line”, right?
My own experiences lead me to think this technique is not dependable.
Reply: Both of you are missing the point, which is that drilling holes in the ice is an attempt to sink it. ~ charles the sleep-deprived moderator
I still don’t know why they didn’t simply do as the Top Gear team did and just drive to the North Pole in a 4Wheel Drive Toyota’s…. If three larikins with no brains can do it… Anyone can.
…. Actually they could’ve contacted GM and used Prius’s…. Oh. That’s right Prius doesn’t work in low temps. The batteries go all funky…. Seems nothing that these AGW mob do, works.
…… and they want us to change the energy economy of the world?
We would have to be mad. Wouldn’t we?
charles the sleep-deprived moderator
Heh! Now you have a partner, thanks to a toothache.
“Arctic team: ‘London, we have a problem’ ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
“A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully. “
Shawn F. wrote:
Once they have sufficient media moments, you can expect How I Spent Spring Break in the Arctic coming soon to bookstores near you.
Stephen Brown wrote:
“sceptic (English, and correct, spelling) “
Not according to Fowler’s classic Modern English Usage:
“The established pronunciation is sk-, whatever the spelling; and with the frequent modern use of septic and sepsis it is well that it should be so for fear of confusion. But to spell sc- and pronounce sk- is to put a needless difficulty in the way of the unlearned, for sce is normally pronounced se even in words where the c represents a Greek k, e.g., scene and its compounds and ascetic. America spells sk-; we might pocket our pride and copy.”
Someone’s comment discussed the physiological readings reported, and in the process mentioned that Pen’s pulse rate was clearly slower than that of the other two members of the expedition. That point struck a chord with me when I matched it with other information about him that had been mentioned.
Pen::
1. Is known to involve himself in risky behavior.
2. Doesn’t seem to do well at applying learning from negative past experiences. For example, in his rescue at tje end of his solo hike to the north pole his rescuer almost certainly pointed out forcefully that rescue attempts made after April 30 placed the life of the rescuer in danger. And yet Pen’s present project is designed to place him at the north pole in June.
3. Several of the comments have pointed to poor decisions made in regard to clothing, sleeping bags, etc. While he is an experienced arctic explorer, he doesn’t seem to have done well in applying this experience in planning for some important aspects of the present expedition.
4. And finally, he has a slower pulse rate.
Researchers report that these four characteristics or conditions match (and possibly only coincidentally) some of the major characteristics or conditions that go with the profile of the psychopath. Anecdotal reports from researchers studying psychopaths also describe many as being so persuasive and believable that even those who are alert to the need to take care can be “taken in” by them.. Psychopaths don’t play by societies rules, and “we normal people” tend to let them get create harm because we don’t know what to do in dealing with them. In my befoe retirement exper as a management psychologist I have found that many having this pattern are found in sales or as entrepreneurs. This can create real problems when a perwon with these tendencies gets into a position of power. For example, what do you think might happen in the world of climatology if someone of this sort were placed in charge of a major climate organization in the government? You would be faced with someone who manipulated data, who made outratious claims about climate in order to foster his personal agenda, who ignored rules that didn’t suit him, etc Hopefully, such a thing will never happen.
And incidentally, I have used “he” and “him” intentionally because 95 % of those with this pattern are male.
Mike Bryant (18:39:41) :
“After a small hole is made in the ice (Using the Mora Ice Drill) this CTD is lowered from just under the ice to a depth of 300m at about 0.5 m/s”
I am not used to using such ice drills so take this with a grain of salt. But:
Go to
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery/latest_images_from_the_Ice
Find the image where someone in an orange/white outfit operates a white and green ice drill. That is apparently the Mora Ice Drill.
Mora is a place in Sweden, so this is a swedish product
http://www.moraofsweden.se/
They hav various different ice drill models
http://www.moraofsweden.se/index.php?cid=35&ssel=48
But the “Mora Ice Arctic” is not shown with a photo. You would think that was the one they are using?
The “Pro” version looks different and can drill max 120cm according to Mora. The “Easy” version drills max 90cm of ice. The “Micro” version drills max 88cm, and it looks different too.
I looked for pictures of the “Mora Ice Arctic” on other sites and found
http://www.godestunder.no/images/produktbilder/isfiskeisbormoraicearctic.jpg
This page tests the “Mora Ice Arctic”
http://www.klikk.no/friluft/fiske/article257802.ece
It says the total length is 159-198cm with builtin telescopic extension, transport length 116cm. The spiral is 83.5cm. But most importantly, the max ice thickness is given as 151 cm.
Didn’t these people claim that they have measured ice thicknesses in excess of 1.5 meters using this equipment? Is that credible? Someone with Ice drill experience should comment.
Pen Hadow was rescued from an earlier Polar quest [2004?] around mid May. Dicy rescue on cracking ice. Told he was an idiot by his rescuers. At what stage will the ‘idiot’ decide they need rescuing this trip, as at their rate of progress they won’t get to the N Pole and more lives will be in jeopardy just getting these 3 fools back to civilization and surgery and ridicule from a large section of AGW skeptics…… But then they will be rewarded by a meeting with Al Gore………… Doh!
Mike Bryant (20:31:28) :
Okay they apparently have a 5 meter ice drill… I guess Mora is a sponsor.
5 meters? Then why is their “Arctic” version apparently rated for max 151 cm? Are they carrying 3.5 meter extensions with them, or is this a custom made version? Why would they make a 5m drill if they expect the ice to be so thin anyway?
And is it practically possible to hand drill through 5m Ice?
Just been looking at the Catlin Education Resources.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/education_resources.aspx
Really quite exciting.
“Arctic Survey Education enables students to access live data,”
Yes we can access live data, even today Friday 10th April 2009
Oh boy, oh boy and soon I’ll be “using mathematical skills to complete a ‘virtual expedition’”
Do hit the Geography link and download the pdf Ice Recording Template!
This template I’d imagine will “assist in our understanding of how fast the ice is thinning.”
The template states “Arctic Survey Education is a trading name of, and Catlin Arctic Survey is an event of, Pen Hadow Consulting Ltd”.
The Catlin Arctic Survey is an event.
Silly me I thought it was a scientific expedition.
Mike Bryant (20:31:28) :
Okay they apparently have a 5 meter ice drill… I guess Mora is a sponsor.
“The Mora Nova ice drill is providing answers to global warming questions. ”
Oops, that answers the question of which model they are using. So how deep you can drill with the Mora Nova ice drill? 5 meters?
There is a video showing the Mora Nova here
Having watched video of the team, their breath freezing the inside of their tent, their stove so loud they could barely be heard over it, their stress written on their faces and audible in their voices, I am not among those who consider the expedition to be a hoax.
I am, on the other hand, among those who consider it to be badly run, with an ill-informed, lightly dishonest p.r. machine that could lead to tragedy.
I conducted a phone interview yesterday with the chief of communications, who knew less about hypothermia — and the team’s condition — than most of the people on this site.
My post about the interview is here:
http://talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/205/
J.Hansford (23:51:36) :
**I still don’t know why they didn’t simply do as the Top Gear team did and just drive to the North Pole in a 4Wheel Drive Toyota’s…. If three larikins with no brains can do it… Anyone can.**
First, they are further north than Top Gear ever was. Top Gear started from Resolute and went a bit northwest to the magnetic north pole which is not as far as the refueling cache at Isachsen ofr Borek Air. They went over an island to the west of Resolute. Then, do we really know if they did all that? It is entertainment.
Doubtville (19:44:09). Good questions.
This expedition, where Hadow (a known enviro-alarmist) claimed what the answers and outcome will be already before the trip — and also Gore’s movie, even more “The Ages of Stupid”, Mark Lynas’ six degrees, etc. — can be compared with any propaganda. Leni Riefestahl 2009.
“First, they are further north than Top Gear ever was…Then, do we really know if they did all that? It is entertainment.”
I would submit that the Top Gear Expedition was not only more entertaining than the Catlin Debacle, but more honest as well.
“5 meters? Then why is their “Arctic” version apparently rated for max 151 cm? Are they carrying 3.5 meter extensions with them, or is this a custom made version? Why would they make a 5m drill if they expect the ice to be so thin anyway? And is it practically possible to hand drill through 5m Ice?”
All excellent questions. Anyone here know those Mora guys?
DPP (15:56:23) :
Recycling biometric data, hmm, to paraphrase a certain doctor – “They’re dead Jim”
Okay – you take the tri-corder, I get the wallet.
Nice catch, and another thing about that video as you keep watching, look at the ground, isn’t that rock and ice? Why isn’t their tent entirely insulated…
But the real kicker is, pause the video at the 2:50 mark and look in the lower left hand corner… Is that a plant?
Carsten,
In order to operate the hand drill, no extension should be longer than a meter. So perhaps, erring on the side of trust, (which might be stupid in this case) They have the arctic model and 4 – 1 meter extensions. Nothing else makes much sense.
PS I was wrong about the picture being a core sample drill… it is obviously the Mora arctic.
Mike
Harold Ambler: “I am, on the other hand, among those who consider it to be badly run, with an ill-informed, lightly dishonest p.r. machine that could lead to tragedy.”
I agree entirely. Also, I envy people who can marshal their thoughts, time, and energy to put together a site and conduct interviews and actually move scientific inquiry (or enquiry for the Brits) forward. Anthony, Harold – thank you for trying to ferret out information and thank you for trying to remain objective.
If I can rely on other people to be objective I can act like a jackass and not worry so much. Fact is – we all know it is more fun to be a pig and make fun of someone or something than to try and build something.
While I’m on a rant – I had noticed on another site people suggesting that this particular thread on this site was trivial naval-gazing (they did not phrase it nearly so well). However, the validity as to why this is important is as a basis to analyze the argument put forth by the Catlin group. The slick image of the page with the assertion that they have the attention, ability, and follow-through to actually monitor all of this data in real-time from such a distance and overcome so many technical challenges – this is an argument of authority (the opposite of an ad hominem attack but just as wrong). It is used to hide the lack of credibility of the science in the mission. It is a very good thing that Anthony Watts is on the ball. Would these people on their own tell us where they are making data up?
Pen’s pulse rate was clearly slower than that of the other two members of the expedition
Didn’t someone suggest earlier that the other two were sharing a sleeping bag to keep warm? That might affect their pulse rates… 🙂
The probably didn’t. Top Gear tends to fudge most of what they do. Still, it’s a ripping hilarious show.
You could contact the three hotels in Resolute and ask to speak to one of the Catlin Expedition members to see if you can get some first hand reports not from BBC or Catlin HQ that might be filtered.
http://www.resolute.worldweb.com/WheretoStay/HotelsMotels//index.htm
Charles,
“Reply: Both of you are missing the point, which is that drilling holes in the ice is an attempt to sink it. ~ charles the sleep-deprived moderator”
My thoughts exactly…
Graeme Rodaughan (20:15:48) Thank you, amusing take.
After watching the video, The only peculiarity I note is the lack of breath condensation. If they just spent the night, the interior walls of the tent would have hoar-frost from their breathing as well. The white stuff on the bottom of the boot is unlikely sand, more likely snow. From personal observation, my breath shows at about 50 F and below.
“But the real kicker is, pause the video at the 2:50 mark and look in the lower left hand corner… Is that a plant?”
I didn’t see a plant, but it does seem odd that the jacket was folded up as if it had been kept in a box… a freezer perhaps… maybe it would be better laid flat below the sleeping bag. Of course, I might be all wet… also, still wondering about the lack of visible exhalations…
The IPCC says that it does not report raw data nor perform research. It summarizes the research of others. Giving data to the IPCC is a waste of resources.
Harold Ambler (04:56:50):
From your article:
“What has been said and is, as you I am sure aware pretty obvious, they are constantly battling hypothermia.”
Harold, that man, Pen, is showing lethal hypothermia. It is not possible for a human being to tolerate an inner body’s temperature below 35 °C. Pen’s scans show always</b core temperature 33 °C</b. He must be dead. Perhaps he is Superman or the sensors failed since the first moment? I don’t want to talk about the other unusual homeostasis from Ann and Martin because I have written about it some posts above.
I have never said the whole thing is a hoax. But I sustain that biologically, based on the data from Catlin website, those people must be dead. Another alternative is that they are in another warm location and those biotelemetry data were invented, which, even if they were on the Arctic, makes it a hoax.
Colenaty (02:36:02) :
Someone’s comment discussed the physiological readings reported, and in…
4. And finally, he has a slower pulse rate.
and 5. He always has values of lethal hypothermia.
This man Steve Penikett with Borek Air works both poles in rescue attempts for the NSF (National Science Foundation). I sent them an email about the Catlin Resupply flights a couple of days ago with no read reply or response back.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2003/09/17/antarctica_rescue030917.html
Apparently Hadow paid them $100,000 in the 03 aborted trip to pick him up. I could have read that wrong.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2003/may/29/stevenmorris
and in the article about the criticism of the late start Hadow’s spokesman Steve Jones said they couldn’t leave earlier because the planes can’t land until there is enough light on a beach of Ward Hunt Island. I wonder if that’s where the Catlin Expedition is now- Ward Hunt Island? When did they start this trip- March 1st or so? This would be in direct conflict with what Borek Air said that they can’t land in the dark on the Arctic Ice. Hmm the pot simmers.
The other day I was staring at the biotelemetry section of their webpage and, although I didn’t pick up on the repeating patterns, I had a strange thought. It occurred to me, were they even still out there on the ice?
I noticed some time ago that their data page disappeared from the site.
Bill wrote this and from the table it looks like they didn’t have enough light to fly until March 8th or so. I could be reading this table wrong but it needs to be studied. Bill can you chime in on this?
Bill Jamison (14:16:10) :
Their website says “The next leg will bring 24 hours daylight allowing the team further opportunity to progress north whilst surveying increasing amounts of sea ice each day.” yet Google Earth shows there is still about 7 hours of night at this time of the year at that latitude.
Well, let’s see. My handy-dandy 30 year old program for such things says:
2009 Catlin, Latitude 83:53 Longitude 129:00
Date Rise Set Light Civil Naut Astro Decln Height
…
Feb 22 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -9:55 -3:48
Mar 1 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -7:18 -1:11
Mar 8 8:18A 3:16P 6:58 3:26 **:** **:** -4:35 1:32
Mar 15 6:22A 5:07P 10:45 3:30 **:** **:** -1:50 4:17
Mar 22 4:36A 6:50P 14:14 **:** **:** **:** 0:56 7:03
Mar 29 2:31A 8:50P 18:19 **:** **:** **:** 3:41 9:48
Apr 5 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** 6:22 12:29
Apr 12 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** 8:58 15:05
So yeah, they’re in 24 hour daylight. The Sun’s declination on Apr 9 is 7:52, call it 8 degrees, so the lowest the sun gets at 84N should be 2 degrees. (At the NP the center of the Sun would be 8 degrees above the horizon, 6 degrees away it would be 2 above at local midnight.
In the above table length is HH:MM of daylight, civil is length of civil twilight (Sun 0 to 6 degrees below the horizon), nautical is 0-12, astro is 0-18.
The race to the Pole is on.
Mush.
…-
$ Mr Powell is keen to hear from anybody who wishes to sponsor him, be it individuals, or corporate sponsors.
Call him on 01706 217 865. $
“Helmshore dad-of-two to ski across the Arctic
9:28am Thursday 19th February 2009″
” Mr Powell, who runs Holden Vale Hotel, Holcombe Road, will start official preparations on April 9 in Longyearbyen, Norway, before being air- lifted to the Borneo Ice Station on April 16.
Their team will then set out for the Pole. Working with dog teams along the way, in temperatures as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius, the aim is to reach the North Pole around 12 days later.
The expedition is being organised by a team in the USA, and Mr Powell will meet up with the only other UK participant when he starts the trek in the spring. ”
http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/rossendale/helmshore/4138066.Helmshore_dad_of_two_to_ski_across_the_Arctic/
After looking at the frozen jacket video once again, it appears that what might seem to be condensation at one or two points is actually a function of the changing lighting in the tent, along with a low res video camera.
I could be wrong about this. But starting at about the half minute mark, Martin’s face is above his black clothing. The contrast should show condensation from his breathing. I couldn’t see his breath, even when he was mugging for the camera by forcefully blowing on his fingers several times.
Also, in the article with the cooking video, Anne states that the cooking must be done inside the tent, where she says the temperature is minus twenty degrees. If the Martin tent is around minus 20°, his exhalations should be easily visible.
Finally, this video [click] was taken at night with the moving ice in the background. But in this video, there is no question that condensation from Hadow’s exhaling can not be seen. It’s simply not there.
I grew up where sub-zero temps were common, and I know what condensed vapor from breathing looks like. If someone has a reasonable explanation for the missing condensation in this video, I’d like to hear it.
Elizabeth (08:20:02) :
The other day I was staring at the biotelemetry section of their webpage and, although I didn’t pick up on the repeating patterns, I had a strange thought. It occurred to me, were they even still out there on the ice?
Given those bizarre recycled biotelemetric data, I concluded that they already are dead or they’re not out there on the ice.
For example, Martin, from the team, shows a normal ventilation rate while his heart is beating hastily. I don’t know if he’s an android or something of the kind, but humans cannot pause or delay the oxygenation of blood. It seems he’s aside a powerful heat source, more than exercising. On the latter, when we are exercising both cardiac frequency and breath rate increase by higher requirements of oxygen. If you stop breathing during exercise hypoxia would come immediately. If a person suffers some cardiac ailment, for example angina, the provision of oxygen to the body becomes deficient and the person feels suffocation. After Anthony discovered the recycling of the telemetry data, breath rate has been corrected on Catlin’s page.
I went to the Catlin web site and read through their planning and they were to leave February 22, 2009 to be dropped off at the starting point. It was so far according to the plans that a “floating ice base” was established to refuel the Twin Otter on it’s path back to Resolute. Apparently the range of a Twin Otter is to0 small so they were to need manned refueling stations.
This brings up even more questions. Well now how are those folks at the two floating ice bases doing? The pictures just show a tent but no fuel drums or extra provisions to just sit there on the ice waiting for the plane to fly by. How can they land on the ice in the dark? This whole story seems “cooked up” to me and some internet web page expert pieced it together without consultation with a real logistics manager with arctic experience.
This is getting more far fetched the deeper I did into it.
Now lets see what we have here as to unanswered questions in addition to the faulty bio data. 1. odd video with things that should be there like breath vapor and things that shouldn’t be there like rocks at 1000 km onto the ice where there shouldn’t be 2. planes that would have to land in the dark on the ice 3. refueling floating forward bases 4. prior failures of this guy Hadow. 5. Sat photos showing lots of open cracks in their paths.
I’m sure I’m forgetting something but this whole trip is starting to look like it’s not happening in real time just like the bio data.
REPLY: In almost any endeavor, you can look at things after the fact with a skeptical eye and find inconsistencies. Let’s stick with what we can prove, like the bio data being presented as live when it was not. – Anthony
Smokey, in your video, not only is there no breath condensation, but Pen looks like he is in a light windbreaker almost, has no facial covering, and is wearing gloves without fingers. If the temperature is really as cold as they were reporting, the fingerless gloves would be an invitation for frostbite and you should see some redness in Pen’s cheeks from being exposed to the cold in such an unshielded manner. Instead, his face is pretty much the same color throughout. And against his black jacket, I would expect to see a bit of condensation with every word he spoke.
If you catch the last few moments when he stands up, you can also see he isn’t wearing thick pants at all, but what look like fairly tight pants, almost like leggings, stuffed into his Macs. You would almost think this video was shot in an unprepared state, like he had just jumped out of bed and thrown on minimum clothes in surprise at the noise he had heard.
But unlike what he says in the video, this is not a rare occurrence in the Arctic. I’ve seen many films showing pan ice compacting and rubbing like what is shown at the beginning of the video. I’ve even seen it in person occurring on river ice here in Tennessee (on the Mississippi River).
So, as an experienced Arctic explorer, this should have been old hat, not even worth getting out of bed for, yet they went and shot a video of it. Why? Because they were going to have to move camp? They should have had warning of this as you would normally only get this sort of compaction if you were near the edge of the floe that you were on, so you would know not to be camping so close to the edge. Theatrics? Planned? Can the ice compaction be blamed on Warming?
Re maz2 (08:47:39) :
Borneo ice station is at 89 north, i e 111 kilometers from the Pole. Not much of an expedition. Actually I think he could probably start from Longyearbyen (about 78 north) and go to the pole from there. There is an awful lot of ice around Svalbard this spring:
http://retro.met.no/images/image_000140_1239375665.jpg
I am glad that you guys have caught up.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/24/guardian-headline-leading-climate-scientist-democratic-process-isnt-working/#comments
Check my posting on 24th March — (11:29:35) & (12:47:41) :
I did expect someone to explain why at -40 you cannot see breath, and give a very good explanation. That was what I expected.
Ah well.
B Kerr (10:11:37),
Yes, it appears you asked the question first. Did you ever get any explanation at all?
While it is hard to believe that any AGW theory supporter would ever be dishonest, I love a well supported conspiracy theory.
Based on my observations and your guys’ points, I think that they are hustling someone.
1) Here at 45.5N -88W it gets to -30 in winter, and yes you can see your breath when it is cold. It is missing in the moving ice interview, and in the tent. The exertion of putting on the frozen jacket would also have a guy puffing and putting out a little steam. It is not so in either case. His light jacket, no gloves, and no face protection in the moving ice interview is very suspect as well. He would be shivering, and his hands would steam if they were taken out of gloves.
2) The tent is wrong as you guys pointed out. Yes at about 1:19 on the jacket video he hits the tent with his arm and lifts the top. You can see that it is only tied on every foot of so, and he exposes a gap. Two things here. One, no they would not take that porous of a tent into the Arctic. The wind would shred it in short order, and it would be cold with the arctic wind howling through the huge gaps. Here is the fun part… Look at the gap, and it looks like TREES in the background. That must be one of those floating Arctic Maples..
3) I suspect that a lot of the stuff that we are seeing was actually done on the practice run at Resolute Bay. A lot of the features are the same, the clothes are the same, and they even have the moving ice features.
4) The mission is guaranteed to end in failure due to breaking up ice. They chastised Rupert for a previous expedition when he had to be rescued in early May, putting lives at risk. This is scheduled to end about June 10th, and they are behind schedule. They planned to be on the ice 6 weeks after it was safe, pretty much establishing a secured outcome. There is no question that they won’t make it due to ice breakup, which will be promptly blamed on AGW. I sure wish I could find that sure of a thing in the securities market..
I will admit to being very skeptical, but to me this smalls like a 3 million pound, or ($4.38 million dollar US) hustle with a predetermined outcome. Maybe they really are doing it, but all of the failures and all of the questions add up to what smells like another AGW enviro-hustle.
Sixty Minutes 2011 interview with Al Gore:
“There’s still a lot of skepticism about whether global warming is man made,” Stahl remarked.
“There’s even skepticism about whether it is the Solar Minimum that’s cooling the Earth the last several years instead of the annual Earth Hour where everybody turns off their lights for one hour.”
“I don’t think there’s a lot…” Gore said.
“Well, there’s pretty impressive people like the Wattsupwiththat.com blog,” Stahl pointed out
“You’re talking about Anthony Watts?” Gore replied.
“Yeah, but others. And they say carbon dioxide doesn’t causing Global Warming and why spend all this money till we really know,” Stahl said.
“I think that those people are in such a tiny, tiny minority now with their point of view. They’re almost like the ones who still believe that the Catlin expedition was staged on a UK sound stage, or that they froze to death or were ate by starving polar bears, instead of falling through the melting Artic polar Ice. That demeans them a little bit, but it’s not that far off,” Gore said.
Smokey (10:18:59) :
No I never got a reply, but I assumed it had something to do with vapour pressure of air at -40 or that the air was so dry that water vapour would disappear or was it the kind of gum that Pen was chewing.
But then again they did have chicken dumplings and that might have set up a strange vapour in the tent.
The other missing factor that should exist at -30 to -40 temps is a complete lack of hoarfrost on the inside of tents, on the jackets and faces of the people.
In the dressing video, there is just a trace of frost seen on the red sleeping bag cover near the open end but not nearly as much as I would expect at those temps.
When I have slept in a tent at significantly subzero temperatures, in the morning when you wake up, the entire area inside the tent is covered with ice crystals from your breaths condensation. You have to be careful not to brush up against the inside of the tent or you will cause a snow storm in the tent from all that hoarfrost getting knocked loose by your movement.
At only -15 deg F temps, when I try to start my car, in the morning fog from my breathing is very very obvious in the quiet air of the car (as it should be in the tent), and heavy enough that in a matter of a few seconds, a layer of frost begins to form on the inside of the windshield as the humidity freezes out on the cold glass. The same sort of thing happens inside tents, unless outside temps are high enough (about 10 deg F or so) that the temperature inside the tent stays just above freezing.
Slightly damp clothing can get very stiff at temperatures just a few degrees below freezing depending on how much retained moisture they have.
If I were to hazard a guess on the air temp based only on these observations I would put the temperatures in the low double digit plus temperatures (deg F) or low single digit Celsius.
Larry
Mike Bryant (06:15:21) :
Carsten,
In order to operate the hand drill, no extension should be longer than a meter. So perhaps, erring on the side of trust, (which might be stupid in this case) They have the arctic model and 4 – 1 meter extensions. Nothing else makes much sense.
PS I was wrong about the picture being a core sample drill… it is obviously the Mora arctic.
Mike
Mike,
As you pointed out yourself, Mora says they are using the Mora Nova Ice Drill, and on closer inspection, the images on the Catlin website confirm that. I believe I saw an image of it with a couple of extensions in their image gallery.
But why are they using an ice drill apparently intended for fishing purposes to measure the sea ice thickness? It would make sense to use a much smaller diameter drill, like is shown on a couple of videos you can find on the web of people actually doing manual ice thickness measurements? It would be easier to carry along also. Perhaps they had planned to supplement their food supply as they are measuring the ice thickness? 🙂
This whole thing smells, if not of fish.
With all due respect Anthony I don’t think it’s after the fact. These videos and other observations would be and are said to be happening now.
As for proof how could they land on the ice in the dark for their drop off. The the big deal is that they aren’t even out on the ice since it would have required an impossible night landing. I will call Kenn Borek Air and see if they can substantiate the flights. I’ll report back what they say since they haven’t responded to emails.
REPLY: I’m all for investigation, but let’s not make conclusions without doing so first. – Anthony
Well, after having read nearly every post, I have to say that I’m a bit flummoxed over several things, not the least of which questionable data.
.
In the matter of fog: A long time ago, I knew a fellow who’d been in the USAF, and he’s gone on an arctic training exercise. One of the things he related to me was that when they stopped to bivouac, there always occurred a ‘local fogging condition.’
.
He indicated that such was visible from space through spy sats of the period (1970’s), and that it was considered something of a tactical problem, in that it was a dead giveaway to one’s position.
.
So, why no fog from the three local hot air generators?
.
—————
Re: Jack Green (19:07:47) :
Watch the videos closely guys. Those are rocks. If the tents were set up on ice without a floor then they would be all white. You can hear the pot lid hit the rocks.
—————
Well, there’s a really good explanation here: In the Arctic, there’s a little known phenomenon called ‘ice rocks.’ This is a species of ice which forms when human get close enough to it that it turns normal surface snow into, well, rocks.
.
The strangest thing here is that they don’t melt when placed near heat. In fact, they get more ‘robust’ with the greater heat.
.
Further, they float in water, which after a period of a few hours will revert back to normal H2O.
.
—————
Scott H (06:10:48) :But the real kicker is, pause the video at the 2:50 mark and look in the lower left hand corner… Is that a plant?
—————
That’s another little known and least understood aspect Arctic ice. What happens —just as with the Arctic snow, when the Artic snow turns to rocks, then the Arctic ice begins to sprout green plants.
.
Moving right along here, we come to: How to measure ice thickness.
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I am amazed —I really am— that nobody thought to use sound transducers as echo devices to determine the thickness of the ice. Additionally, a sonogram could well be recorded which would reveal more things about the ice than just thickness.
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Then of course there’s that statement about ‘drilling holes to validate the radar readings.’
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Yeah, right. A radar which was ‘calibrated’ priorly needs to be validated by a process which is —at best— ‘iffy?’ Isn’t that a bit like filling a calibrated beaker with a liquid to a specified point, and then tea-spooning the contents into another beaker?
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Regarding batteries. You know? There are several models of hand-crank generator which would serve two purposes: Charge the batteries, and keep the hands moving to ward off frostbite by increasing blood flow. I’ll guess that was too easy …
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Insulation problems: Haven’t any of those people ever heard of ‘aerogel?’ It’s probably the best insulation ever made. And to boot, it now pretty much available at a decent price.
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Finally we get to the term ‘PR.’ E.L. Bernays is considered the ‘father of public relations,’ in that he coined the term.
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Would it surprise anyone reading this that Bernays coined the term in order to otherwise not employ the term ‘propaganda.’
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Is it any wonder that the first two letters of ‘propaganda’ are ‘PR?’
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What a long strange trip it’s been …
A possible test for how far north these [insert polite derogative] people actually are.
Has anyone seen an image with a, more or less, vertical object and which is casting a strong shadow that would be inconsistent with a hi latitude photo?
One would expect, for example, a photo of a flagpole at a hi latitude to cast a very long shadow consistent with a low sun. An image with a much shorter shadow would indicate a higher sun/lower latitude [or an image made closer to arctic summertime]
As far as the total fraud conjecture goes, if this were true wouldn’t one expect them to report much milder [warmer/less cold] temperatures? Or maybe camels drinking water from an oasis?
This not to say that I think they are contributing anything to climate science; I don’t and their project is, in IMO a total waste of resources and possibly human life.
note to webmaster or ?: why is derogative>/i> underlined as if misspelled?
The more I explore the pictures from the Catlin website, the more problems I have with some of the groupings. There are repeated copies of the same picture under different groups, some with headers, some without. It makes it hard to work any chronology out of the pictures.
For example, we have pictures “from the ice”. When were these transmitted to the Ops Base to be put on the internet? If after the initial drop off, then why have no more recent pictures been uploaded? Surely some other photo op worthy events have occurred in the intervening 6 weeks since they were dropped off?
There are copies of the same picture of (I am assuming) Pen (he seems to be the one of the three with an extra yellow jacket he likes to wear) loading a sledge listed in both the Drop off picture set and in the prep in Resolute Bay set. Which was it?
Another problem I have is why don’t they have a “Where are they now?” type page, at least showing daily progress on a map. It should be easy to compile from the GPS data from their satellite phone. The Ops Base says they communicate with the using an Iridium phone, so there should be data available. And somebody has been sending out the videos we are seeing on bbc.com from the ice, right? True, the only one from outside the tent was done at night, so we haven’t seen anything to show what hard work they are having to do. Personally, I would love to see Pen drilling a hole for us, and more of the scenery. Maybe it has been too cold except in the tent, or on that one night, to shoot any video or use Martin’s camera for stills?
@Carsten Arnholm
The ice-drill could probably have been smaller diameter just for metering ice thickness, but they also want to be able to lower their mini-CTD.
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
Robert David Graham,
You said, “The database query has a bug that only pulls the first 3000 entries from the database. The site was correctly reporting live data until that 3000 entry limit was reached. After that point, the data appeared static and unchanging, like a file.”
I run a website, ace-exchange.com which makes heavy use of swf charts fed by database queries with php scripts and I can say categorically that there are no such natural limits of 3000 entries. Our stock charts are updated every minute with live data and never reach any limits. They have operated in this manner for a year and a half now, handling far more data than the expeditions charts have. My charts would have crashed in the first few days of operations with such limiting bugs.
OK Anthony. I have contacts in Air Sea rescue in the Arctic. I will put some feelers out and see if there have been otter flights out onto the ice out of Resolute. It should be big news to the locals that another expedition is staging out of their backyard. You’re right don’t jump to conclusions until there is proof. The circumstantial evidence is building you must agree; however. Fantastic web site, well run and classy, smart, practical people as well as credentialed scientists troll around here. Keep it up and thanks. The truth needs to be told and we need to hold these people accountable.
I’m looking at the videos now and not seeing the trees, have they edited the clips, or reshot them?
In this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival.
Who writes their stuff?
Jack Green (08:37:54) :
No, that’s my table.
The starting point is a couple degrees south, so that means the sur rises a few days earlier.
The starting point for the Ice Team was sounth that of the Floating Support Base, but I’ll just consider the Ice Team’s start, which is 81.41N 129.48W according to http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Departure. (I think ‘.’ means decimal and not a separator for minutes.) The Canadian date was Feb 28th, I’ve added that to the nearby Sundays below:
2009 Catlin starting point, Latitude 81.41 Longitude 129.48
Date Rise Set Light Civil Naut Astro Decln Height
Feb 22 **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** **:** -9.92 -1.33
Feb 28 9:21A 2:20P 5:00 2:48 5:36 **:** -7.67 0.92
Mar 1 9:04A 2:36P 5:32 2:42 5:32 **:** -7.29 1.30
Mar 8 7:31A 4:06P 8:34 2:22 5:47 **:** -4.59 4.00
Mar 15 6:13A 5:20P 11:07 2:24 **:** **:** -1.83 6.76
Mar 22 4:57A 6:32P 13:35 2:49 **:** **:** 0.93 9.52
So on the departure date, they had five hours of daylight with the sun getting all of 1 degree above the horizon. With some refraction tossed in, the space between noontime sun and the horizon would be only about two sun diameters. They would also have about 3 hours between sunset and the end of civil twilight, which is about when you need headlights on when driving. The low sun would make the texture of the ice stand out, which would be a help for the pilot.
The Sun’s motion get weirder and weirder as you get close to either pole!
In the above table length is HH:MM of daylight, civil is length of civil twilight (Sun 0 to 6 degrees below the horizon), nautical is 0-12, astro is 0-18.
MartinGAtkins (17:10:16) :
In this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival.
Who writes their stuff?
People suffering from chronic hypothermia.
Stunning stuff.
Thank you all at WUWT so much.
Someone asked about the trees on the frozen jacket video.. I am not positive that is what they are, but look for yourself. Here is a snapshot pointing out where to look. When he bumps the tent at 1:19 or 1:20 it opens up and it looks like the leafless crown of a tree through the crack in the tent flaps. And again, are they really in such a leaky tent in the Arctic?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962021.stm
http://s693.photobucket.com/albums/vv299/665345/
Ric:
I watched the drop off video and they are flying in light conditions consistent with your sun calculations. After watching some youtube videos of Kenn Borek landings “these pilots are really good”. I searched for any videos and or pictures that KBA people may have posted recently independent of the Catlin Web Propaganda web site. No luck. I guess I could search on pilot names and see if they have any facebook sites. That’s next.
I wonder if the US Navy is near the Catlin Expedition right now. It’s not clear when the photo was taken. I’m not sure this is important but it is cool and in the arctic recently.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/46830,features,pic-of-the-day-submarine-breaks-arctic-ice
And more data here about the study: Anthony remove my last post it’s incomplete.
http://thetension.blogspot.com/2009/03/photo-essay-ice-exercise-icex-2009.html
REPLY: It is not obvious what post you are referring to, I can’t guess, so I’m leaving all posts warts and all. – A
Ray B: “Here is a snapshot pointing out where to look.”
No, that is more likely to be the tail of an elephant. I’ve seen it several times!
I live in the Canadian Arctic and the Catlin Expedition is legit…well by legit I mean they are actually on the ice in the Arctic Ocean. That being said the scientific community up here (the real scientists) refer to them as Edu-Tainers. The website is all the proof of the poof you need. In the end of the day, these guys (and gal) are really just adventures under the guise of research. When they do not reach their goal, they can blame global warming for their ultimate failure (talk about cover your ass when spending a couple of million of Catlin’s money). They just want bragging rights to say they were the first to reach the pole from a position on the Arctic Ocean as opposed to the usual route from Ward Hunt Island on the top of Ellesmere Island. So this has nothing to do with research, it;s all about 15 minutes of fame, and having their NASCAR winter jumpsuits pay for them to do it.
Jack Green (07:47:09) :
“I wonder if the US Navy is near the Catlin Expedition right now. It’s not clear when the photo was taken. I’m not sure this is important but it is cool and in the arctic recently.”
Not if Catlin is where they claim, around 400 miles from the Pole. From Prudhoe to the Pole is over a thousand miles, 200 less would place the sub around 800 miles from the Pole. They would be around 400 miles from Catlin.
“ICEX is a two-week training exercise about 200 miles from the north coast of Alaska, near Prudhoe Bay. ”
http://www.navy.mil/list_single.asp?id=69910
koolahtah,
What do you make of all the complaining about cold, freezing tents and sleeping bags and such? I’ve camped/hunted in sub-zero weather/snow in minus 0 F weather and just do not see it as that much of a big deal. -35C they report now is probably the low, that’s almost short sleeve weather, and a good tent could be heated to tropical conditions in a heartbeat.
Thanks Koolatah. Please help Anthony out here with updates of any information or pictures you can provide of these guys. I agree fully that this is a PR stunt not a scientific endeavor. Thanks again.
Glenn,
Thanks for the question. I would also like to state I’m not against taking a challenge such as walking t the Pole on foot. I think it takes some serious courage to do it. Walking to work in -40 can be a challenge some days, so without a doubt, there complaining is likely warranted, however they deserve this, because IMO their expedition is just plain stupid and pointless. Their original launch point was Barrow, Alaska which is totally insane. Barrow, Alaska to the North Pole? Whisky Tango Foxtrot! Once they likely realized…or likely someone said, “you want to do what?” they changed to a second start point. (I should mention I’ve been following this ongoing saga since Fall of 08). The second start point was on the ice, essentially the same route from Barrow, however taking off a huge chuck of millage, not to mention a whole lot of swimming. The final one, which is the one they are on now was brought closer to land. I can only specualte as to why, however I suppose someone in Ken Borek Air Ltd who flew them out onto the ice and resupply them, out of Resolute, NU said…”you want to do what?”.
Sorry I went off on a tangent, back to your question. Dragging your sorry ass out of out of a sleeping bag in -40 is not a treat…especially after pulling all that unessential and likely now defective science equipment which may or may not been properly tested for arctic conditions doesn’t help things. Also being inside one of their tents for the short times that they are, is not likley to tropical. They won’t be suntanning in there, that’s for sure. Constant -40 temperatures after a certain period of banging a bashing will break anything down, especially ones body. I can only compare it to walking around in an old school dive suit when walking around on a cold (-30 and lower). As for the short sleeves, with weather in the Arctic latitudes, it does not begin until +7 to +8 Celsius.
So in all fairness, Catlin Arctic Scurvy…yes scurvy are likely suffering from fatigue and freezing their asses off, due to dragging non essential B.S. twitter based technologies (which will become their undoing) because in the Arctic, you do not waste energy. They seem to be wasting way to much energy.
Glenn (12:33:58) :
I’ve been wondering about their incessant, non-stop sniveling myself.
What ever happened to the old British stiff upper lip when facing adversity? Has it really been replaced by people like these three insufferable crybabies? What did they expect to encounter but constant cold?
Someone ought to send Pen and Martin one of these: click
REPLY: Smokey, it seems Pen Hadow has a habit of complaining publicly, as do many publicity hounds. see below:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/2625521/Ryanair-boss-in-row-with-explorer-Pen-Hadow-over-emergency-landing.html
and
http://blogs.abcnews.com/worldview/2008/08/budget-airline.html
The key phrase here: “From where I was sitting I could see about 20 masks and only a few of them were inflating.”
Uh…Pen, that’s because they don’t inflate. Even I know this. Here is why:
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/707/when-you-wear-an-airline-oxygen-mask-why-doesnt-the-plastic-bag-inflate
And this is the same Pen hadow that is doing “science on the ice”.
Also, apparently the Telegraph can’t do simple math, note the reference to “40,000 feet” in the first part of the article. – Anthony
Steve Keohane (07:04:38) :
From personal observation, my breath shows at about 50 F and below.
Although it depends also on the Relative humidity of the surrounding air (if high, breath water vapor would condense), human breath condensation begins at about 41 °F (5 °C). So it’s true that if RH of air is at least 25%, we could experience visible breath condensation at10 °C (50 F); for example, when I lean over the packed meats gondola in the store, which is at 6 °C (42.8 F) and its RH is about 75%.
By the way, the current temperature in the Arctic is -30 °C and RH is 75%, so water vapor condensation from breath would be unavoidably visible
Anthony, the comments following the article in your first link were great! I read ’em all. It appears that the British public knows “Rupert Nigel Pendrill Hadow” a lot better than we do.
And the Straight Dope answer was, as usual, straight to the point.
Hahaha… I haven’t noticed before, but the graph on the EKG (ECG) inside the heart is running in the opposite way. Their hearts are functioning. Normal notches sequence is P wave, Q wave, R wave, S wave, S-T segment, and S wave. The small animations sequence is just the opposite… 🙂
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/2625521/Ryanair-boss-in-row-with-explorer-Pen-Hadow-over-emergency-landing.html
Besides thinking he needed to get a mask on his son first, Pen must also think he knows when a pilot should take time out of performing emergency procedures to “reassure” passengers. It isn’t a good idea, at least until the immediate situation is under control, since saying “Don’t worry, be happy” can cause more panic.
The Guardian just linked direct to this page.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/16/weather-arctic-climate-change
Unbelievable……..Gore’s Styrofoam glacier, Mann’s inverted temperature proxy, Hansen’s “adjusted” temperature records and now this.
What’ll end up happening is that this will be exposed as a hoax, but all will be forgiven as these “crusaders” braved the publicity to “raise public awareness”……………same as The Goracles movie……filled with inaccuracies, (if not outright lies), but the “message” is clear…….and we must never shoot the messenger.
These “poor”, “misguided” individuals should be applauded for shining the spotlight on this impending worldwide catastrophe.
Now, I’ve got to go mow the lawn or feed the cat or something.