Guest Post by Steven Goddard
As reported by Anthony, RSS satellite temperature data is out for March. And as the Catlin adventurers have discovered, it has been “stupidly cold” in the Arctic. March was the second consecutive month of below normal Arctic temperatures, and the continuation of a four year cooling trend – as seen below. Google’s linest() function shows that since the beginning of 2005, Arctic temperatures have been cooling at a rate of 1.8 degrees C per decade, or 18C per century ( see comments). Also note that Arctic monthly temperature anomaly now is about three degrees lower than in January, 1981.
That short term trend isn’t meaningful, except in the context of the Catlin Expedition and the cold they are experiencing.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pj0h2MODqj3gAmFVOnSFEWQ
Note in the graph below, the huge drop in temperatures since the Catlin expedition started two months ago. Is this another example of The Gore Effect? Or, perhaps it is the “observer effect‘? Humor aside, the graph below tells the story of the cold the Catlin Expedition must be experiencing.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pj0h2MODqj3gAmFVOnSFEWQ
This cooling is reflected in increasing amounts of winter ice since 2005. Not surprisingly, as the temperature gets colder, the amount of ice increases.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Below is a longer term view of Arctic temperatures, as measured by Dr. Hansen’s GISS at Godthab, Greenland. The warmest years were the 1920s through 1940s.
How long before we start seeing stories like this one from Time Magazine again?
Another Ice Age?
Monday, Jun. 24, 1974
In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year, adding terribly to the toll of famine victims. During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries. In Canada’s wheat belt, a particularly chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a disappointingly small harvest. Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs. A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West, while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the mildest winters within anyone’s recollection.
As they review the bizarre and unpredictable weather pattern of the past several years, a growing number of scientists are beginning to suspect that many seemingly contradictory meteorological fluctuations are actually part of a global climatic upheaval. However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age.
There are 10^11 stars in the galaxy. That used to be a huge number. But it’s only a hundred billion. It’s less than the national deficit! We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.
UPDATE: In response to questions in comments, Steve Goddard located this graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute.
Calculation of the Arctic Mean TemperatureThe daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to present the T799 model data are used.
The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002.
So it is a model, not an observation.
Their next sit-rep is at 1800GMT which is only 3.5 hours from now.
Pen Hadrow’s last post was at 10.40 am on April 2 but they don’t say which time zone. That may only be 40 hours ago so this might not be an indication they are in trouble.
They are to be resupplied on Sunday which may still be 20 hours away depending on which time zone they are in.
(129 west is about Vancouver.)
However would not want too much bad weather right now as they must be getting low on supplies.
Me thinks these folks could come back with a new respect for Mother Nature and her ability to spank us stupid, regardless of what we burn, fart, or pollute into her atmosphere. That is not to say we should. Usually this behavior does us humans more harm (think Love Canal and Bikini Island).
Have no fear, the warming is “in the pipeline” (or so I hear). Maybe they could find a way to tap into that pipeline and warm their frosted tootsies.
John,
I think the Catlin crew is OK.
Sam,
Many predictions of rapid Arctic demise were made in 2007 based on a two month trend. The predictions of Greenland ice disaster were made after a three year trend. I’m using the same high standards as the International Polar Year.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/01/content_7696460.htm
But now it will get warmer. -30, -25,… etc., and they will get fuel, food and new sleeping bags from the air and the ice will disintegrate in April or in May and good photos of steaming water can be send to Guardian and BBC, and Gore can blow them up to the size 20×7 meters and use them as proof that mother Earth has a fever. The propaganda machine should be intact and in good shape (although the ears of the public hurt a bit?). Medias avoidance of this until it becomes warmer is professionalism.
Steven: Are your RSS graphs TLT or TLT anomaly?
in order to be successful, this expedition must get the required picture of the “stranded, doomed polar bear drifting away on a small piece of ice”.
Otherwise, all their frostbite will be for propaganda naught . . . .
Sam,
The 18 C extrapolation comment is poking fun at what is commonly done by those eager to scare. This is not isolated to AGW advocates. There are many people who routinely do such extrapolations – and believe seriously in the results.
Let’s not forget the recent vulcanism of Mt Redoubt is beginning to have an effect on the Arctic climate. The longer Mt. Redoubt erupts the greater the effect it has on the northern hemisphere’s climate. We’re probably going to have a cooler summer and possibly a cooler winter later this year.
O/T but Redoubt has gone into a full boil, as of about 10 am EDT. The AVO site hasn’t caught up with yet, but Kenai radar is showing it well. Plume well in excess of 45000 feet at 10:18 EDT
Please don’t “misunderestimate” the climatological significance of four years. According to the world’s preeminent climatologist Dr. James Hansen, four years is very significant.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/18/jim-hansen-obama
In fact, it appears from the Guardian article that four years is the most significant time frame during the last 4.5 billion years.
Bob,
The RSS TLT anomalies used to make the graphs are from here:
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_2.txt
speaking of Redoubt, AVO just reported “a signifcant explosive event” at 0600 ADT. The new ash cloud spread to 50,00ft, and the alerts have been upped to “warning’ and aviation code red.
Richard: But how much ice melt will be aided by non-white ash deposition onto what is usually near-pristine white? This could change the absorptive properties enough that once the sun reaches the ice, faster melt, and sooner water albedo in melt areas (rather than ice albedo). Not saying it is definitely going to happen, but could.
“Another Ice Age?
Monday, Jun. 24, 1974”
Today that’s proof of global warming
I like that Feynman quote!
ScorpionDas (06:40:13) :
The 18 C extrapolation comment is poking fun at what is commonly done by those eager to scare. This is not isolated to AGW advocates. There are many people who routinely do such extrapolations – and believe seriously in the results.
Using my hyper-accurate computer-controlled calculator I get 180 C per millennium.
>as the temperature gets colder, the amount of ice increases.
This isn’t true, and you shouldn’t state this without qualification.
For example in Antarctica, with global warming, you get more ice,
because it is still too cold to melt the ice, but the surrounding warmer waters produce more precipitation. The sea level rise comes from expanding water. The irony is I think I read this on your site somewhere.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
Used to keep my clothes in a bag at the bottom of my sleeping. Never been in temperatures that cold though, perhaps it makes a difference.
Somewhat off topic:
. . . according to the European Space Agency, warmer over the last 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula, which leads to this:
Massive Ice Shelf About to Break Away From Antarctic Coast
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,512535,00.html
“Scientist are examining whether global warming is behind the shelf’s breakup, the statement said. Average temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula have risen by 3.8 degrees Farenheit (sic) over the past half century, the statement said — higher than the average global rise.”
What I’d like to know is how old the oldest ice is on the part that is about to break away and also the age of the youngest ice. Also, is this all sea ice or is it mostly ice that has moved off the main Antarctic mass of continental ice? Finally, there is this statement:
The Wilkins Ice Shelf “. . . had been stable for most of the last century
before it began retreating in the 1990s”, the statement said.
I don’t see the connection between “retreating”, which is a poorly chosen word anyway, and breaking up. As ice moves (or grows on) open water it is exposed to forces that will lead to its demise. There is just enough information in this story to make it sound “bad” and not enough clarity to explain what is happening.
Nothing new with that, I guess. Misspelling of “Fahrenheit” in original.
Regarding the Catlin expedition, I would have thought they’d want to arrive at the North in Late September, when the ice would be at it’s smallest.
Sam (05:55:31) :
Did you stop reading early? Note the first sentence of the next paragraph:
You might want to check your math, too. Hint – it’s 2009! 🙂
—
“Climatological Cassandras”? I like it! Had to look her up though.
http://www.loggia.com/myth/cassandra.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra
More interesting O/T news:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,512428,00.html
Unusually Quiet Sun Means Less Trouble for Earth
Includes this statement: “Scientists don’t know why it happens, but “for humankind it’s probably a good thing,” said David Hathaway, chief solar physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala.”
So correlation is not causation and if you are only thinking of GPS units and satellites, okay; but this could be the biggest boneheaded statement of the century. Notice, I hedged there!
Off Topic-ish
Ref the Richard Feynman Quote
The price of CO2 management
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/5105923/Yet-more-mind-boggling-figures-on-global-warming.html
atmoaggie (07:18:38) :
Richard: But how much ice melt will be aided by non-white ash deposition onto what is usually near-pristine white? This could change the absorptive properties enough that once the sun reaches the ice, faster melt, and sooner water albedo in melt areas (rather than ice albedo). Not saying it is definitely going to happen, but could.
According to the experts, the fine particulates thrown up into the stratosphere will cool our climate. Mt Redoubt is a high latitude volcano so some of the heavier ash will fall on the Arctic ice but that would depend upon which way the wind is blowing. In the latest eruption today the wind is moving in a southeasterly direction which would carry the ash away from the Arctic. Nevertheless, many climate scientists believe this will result in a temporary negative feedback on the climate.
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php
Steven: You wrote, “The RSS TLT anomalies used to make the graphs are from here…”
Thanks. I just wanted to confirm that you were illustrating anomalies.
Sorry to be a stickler, but the reason for my question was this. TLT anomalies do not reflect ambient (absolute) temperature, just the deviation from the mean temperature of the base years. So I don’t understand how you can state, “Humor aside, the graph below tells the story of the cold the Catlin Expedition must be experiencing,” and when you’re illustrating anomaly, not ambient. Has the absolute temperature risen? Most likely.
What was the absolute temperature at the start of their expedition? And what is it now?
REPLY: Good point Bob, I’ll see if we can find that. Unless I’m missing something, I note that they don’t keep a running graph on the Catlin website, only the “current” weather- Anthony
Bob Tisdale:
From the Catlin team reports we have these temperatures:
March 2nd -26C
March 16th -40C
March 24th -24C
Today April 4th -37C
Unfortunately they have no time of observation connected with these, nor any description of method, so for all I know they could be holding a thermometer in open air and getting some sun on on it. The weather has been a bit more sunny lately, and recent rapidfire sat images have shown few clouds.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2009092/crefl1_143.A2009092222500-2009092223000.1km.jpg
I find it odd that they make temperature essentially anecdotal, and reported mostly in the blog posts. The “current weather” icon reported temperature doesn’t even give a source for the data.
OT – Tonight on the UK’s Channel 4 we get a treat, “The Day After Tomorrow”, followed immediately by the award winning “An Inconvenient Truth”.
I wonder if they are going to show the refutation of some of AIT’s statements like they are required to in UK schools?
When “The Great Global Warming Swindle” was shown by C4 it generated a storm of protest from the alarmists which in turn produced an ombudsman’s report showing that it was not misrepresenting the basic facts. I wonder if AIT could stand up to the same scrutiny? Get those pens and paper ready folks.
Leif,
Your hyper-accurate calculation is correct, but I think that temperatures will have to start tailing off as they approach absolute zero. Perhaps they will settle at around -150F, as in the excellent documentary “The Day After Tomorrow.”
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0319262/
Bob,
The coldest temperatures on the expedition so far have been during this past week, when they hit -42C, currently at -38C. A couple of weeks ago they were much warmer at -24C.
Actually it was colder than that this week. Temperatures dropped below the minimum their thermometer could read, at -45C on Wednesday or Thursday.
I don’t think it’s “stupid cold”, I think it’s stupid to be out sleeping in a tent in that kind of cold!
Hopefully that guy gets a new sleeping bag with their new provisions!
OT, but CA seems to be down. Anyone else having the problem?
What’s really weird is that I tried viewing a cached version on Google and got a nasty message from Symantic that I was trying to hook up to a known fraudulent site. Don’t know if Symantic didn’t like the Google cache or CA.
REPLY: I executed the restart of the Apache server HTTP daemon and that fixed it. – Anthony
Arctic temperatures have been dropping since the start of the year. They normally reach their minimum in early March.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
This is a keeper. The claims in the article are hillarious.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10482139
As a bonus it includes a photo of two activists sunbathing on ice.
The photo is from this story. Another laugher.
Arctic islands invite tourists to see climate woes
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0970993220070516?feedType=RSS&rpc=22
Thanks Anthony,
For what it’s worth, the Google cache problem seems to exist for me for all sites in the Google cache, so apparently, nothing to do with CA. Could be my settings I suppose.
Sorry for the brief diversion.
O/T again on Redoubt, but for those interested, I’ve put up a pair of time-lapse radar scans of this morning’s eruption on youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftcXONilTX8 and
One is a time-lapse of the “Echo tops” scan, measuring altitude, and the other is the “short range composite” giving an overall picture.
Presently they are only sitting at “regular” resolution. Hopefully it won’t take youtube too long to add the HQ version. The speed with which the plume migrates is impressive – the interval here is about an hour.
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
If the ‘Catlin Clowns’ were really being scientific, don’t you think they would be recording and transmitting temperatures and positions as part of their ‘scientific’ data? There is less science in this expedition than one would find in a kindergarten treasure hunt. Of course they do have their uncalibrated ice thickness radar and that doesn’t sound like real radar to me either… Colour me sceptical of any benefits from this foolish outing.
Re:- AndrewWH (08:31:22) :
“An Inconvenient Truth” went through the UK’s High Court.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/Story?id=3719791&page=1
It got “An Inconvenient Verdict”!
Hilariously Channel 4 UK is tonight showing The Day After Tomorrow followed immediately by An Inconvenient Truth.
I’ll buy a big bag of Doritos and popcorn for this sci-fi horror double bill.
Listen, I’m fine with you guys on this site promoting an end to the junk science called AGW, but I think when you do that you are causing the Al Gore effect. Could you cut it out until mid spring? I mean, we’re about to have a hard freeze in mid-Louisiana for cripes sake. In April! Among other non-frost-hardy plants, we’ve got 62 tomato plants in the garden.
I blame WUWT, being that Al Gore is not allowed into Louisiana. You guys owe me some tomatoes.
>>The Earth has cancer
>>and the cancer is Man.
I have seen this before. But if the Greens and the Climate Doom-mongers are so concerned about man’s impact on the environment, then why do they not campaign against population increase??
I contacted Greenpeace and their answer was: “we never have and never will campaign on population issues”. In other words, they will never address the primary issue that is supposed to be driving Climate Change and ‘warming the world’.
Sounds like Green hypocracy to me.
.
UAH is linking to a nice daily MSU temp map from the NOAA -15 satellite.
While clouds sometimes disrupt the actual temp measurements with this method for surface temperature measurements,
.. you can see the Catlin expedition is still in an area of -40C’ish temperatures.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/AAT_Browse.php?chan=03&satnum=15&aord=a
The area they decided to start from is actually the coldest part of the arctic and there has been no change in the temp measurements for the area that I have seen over the past two weeks.
A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West
Yep, that’s me. The crazy windstorms of ’08 are back again, and this time they are stupidly cold, and stubbornly refuse to follow the meteorologists continued attempt at forecasting thier dying down.
They should be blended.
Sort of like Alien Meets Predator
“The Inconvenient Day After Truth”
John M: “What’s really weird is that I tried viewing a cached version on Google and got a nasty message from Symantic that I was trying to hook up to a known fraudulent site. Don’t know if Symantic didn’t like the Google cache or CA.”
John, Google has added a screening feature that identifies sites that may have malicious code embedded in their HTML, and now warns you about them when you click on them. I think this can be disabled, although in my experience it may not be a good idea to. Another point about caches – if you are using Firefox, it has to two refreshes – a refresh of its own cache, and a re-read of the source site. You sometimes have to force a re-read with a ctrl-F5 (F5 by itself does a cache reread).
Paraphrasing Brasil´s President Lulla, about the current economic crisis, as having being originated by “blue eyed people”, it seems that all this funny “climate crisis” has the same origin, though you recently, and wisely, changed one of the principal actors in this comedy to compensate this impression 🙂
The Catlin expedition does seem a little Crichtonesk! But, I’m wondering if they should still be out there.
Adolfo,
President Obama explained the economic crisis to The Guardian here. Worth a read.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/03/g20-barack-obama-nick-robinson-question
But if the Greens and the Climate Doom-mongers are so concerned about man’s impact on the environment, then why do they not campaign against population increase??
They do! Not just verbally but through campaigning against living essentials.
-Banning DDT. Result – millions dying.
-Banning BFRs. Result – fires and explosions.
-Campaign to ban chlorine. Result – millions without drinkable water, disease, death.
-Campaigns against consuming meat and milk. Result, nutritional deficiency among the poor.
-Campaign against CO2. Result, global cooling and death of plant life which results in death of all species. Planet saved!
“Climatological Cassandras”? I like it! Had to look her up though.
http://www.loggia.com/myth/cassandra.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra
Remember the movie 12 Monkeys? It was about a time traveller from a freezing future who has come to prevent the catastrophe that killed most of humanity. To do it, he has to stop a gang led by a rich young eco-warrior from unleashing apocalypse. Won’t post spoilers but there’s a mad James Hansen-like scientist with a briefcase who is infatuated by the idea of a holocaust.
ron (09:41:09) :
Hilariously Channel 4 UK is tonight showing The Day After Tomorrow followed immediately by An Inconvenient Truth.
I’ll buy a big bag of Doritos and popcorn for this sci-fi horror double bill.
True. However, I’ve got the entire box set of Buffy The Vampire Slayer to get through.
Let’s see. Sci-Fi with Al Gore or Sci-Fi with Sarah Michelle Gellar. Tough one that!
Anthony,
I think the DMI T799 temperature data uses an averaging model based on a grid of measured temperatures.
Military buoys show that Arctic temperatures have been steadily going down since July.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/buoy_plots/met2006C.gif
Anthony,
I think the DMI T799 temperature data uses an averaging model based on a grid of measured temperatures.
Military buoys show that Arctic temperatures have been steadily going down since July.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/buoy_plots/met2006C.gif
PS: Forgot to mention great post!
Anthony and Steven: Thanks. I just got back from an errand and was about to try to track down the temperatures for the Catlin expedition. Glad I stopped back here first.
The actual drops in temperature at the locations of the Catlin expedition are much more impressive and factual than the implied impact of a decrease in anomaly for the entire Arctic.
Regards
Most of the news agencies are reporting a massive ice shelf broke off in Antarctica.
Channel 4 says An Inconventient Truth, which starts after the break, is “riveting but never patronising”.
Now I’ve seen everything. Channel 4 has sunk to the depths by saying a politician isn’t patronising.
Catlin has covered 23.5% of the distance and has 42 days more walking to do (being generous: 778/17 pace over the last couple of days – not the 118 days on 778/6 average to date).
“Ann is also feeling the effects of 2 weeks relentless trekking, and today is feeling physically utterly exhausted”
And Martin has frostbite and Pen maybe has hypothermia.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Good news they have some carbon-fuelled supplies coming in
” Steven Goddard (09:32:57) :
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco”
I’ve had a few emails with Jonathan Amos and he really believes this stuff. He took a course on climate science at the OU and seems to have bought it hook line and sinker. Either that or he just milking the cow like everyone else in the AGW community. We will need to bring back the free milk soon (I was a milk monitor and proud of it) else the AGW community will be malnourished.
A discussion in a recent WUWT thread discussed that post El Nino events the warm water spreads and at extreme lattitudes the heat is lost to space (at least I hope that quick synopsis is correct). Would anyone care to speculate how long the heat is retained in the arctic waters, before being lost completely?
What I am wondering is, for the super El Nino of 1998, how long did the heat it take to get to the arctic? Could we assume that the higher than normal temperatures persisted for a few years, perhaps up to 2004?
Slightly off topic, but Steve’s use of the Sea Ice Extent graph raised a question that has bothered me for quite a while. It strikes me that using sea ice extent as measure of Arctic climate is inherently biased to overemphasize any drop in summer ice extent. Since the Arctic is bounded by land masses to large degree and it takes fairly extraordinary conditions to expand the ice beyond normal conditions in the unbounded areas the upside of ice extent is up against a fairly hard limit, which means that any increase in summer melting can’t be balanced by rebound in winter freezing. It’s kind of an inverse of the argument about the expanding income gap, which always grows because $0 is always $0. Or am I missing something here?
Getting sick of watching AIT now. Got that acidic vomity feeling in my throat. Every scene looks like an Apple advert and has a couple of scientific errors. Just Al Gore’s way to make money out of carbon trading and increase the value of his remaining Apple shares (he sold a massive chunk just before the bottom fell out of the market)
There was no disclaimer at the start as there was for Durkin’s documentary despite the high court ruling.
“Paraphrasing Brasil´s President Lulla, about the current economic crisis, as having being originated by ‘blue eyed people’, it seems that all this funny “climate crisis” has the same origin
I agree. This has always been about leukophobia.
“many climate scientists believe this [Redoubt] will result in a temporary negative feedback on the climate”
How long before the warmers fall back on this to support their case (it would have got warmer, but for the volcano..)?
Re: MikeN (07:31:54) :
“>as the temperature gets colder, the amount of ice increases.
This isn’t true, and you shouldn’t state this without qualification.
For example in Antarctica, with global warming, you get more ice,
because it is still too cold to melt the ice, but the surrounding warmer waters produce more precipitation. ”
Anthony is correct. In the Arctic, it’s the sea that freezes — the ice is not coming from precipitation, as in the Antarctic — so yes; in the Arctic, the colder it is the more ice is formed.
Regarding extreme extrapolations from few points or a relatively short time period:
An intelligent collegue (my office mate at the time) had data for an additive he invented at 0 and 3 percent (2 ponts). He extrapolated to 70 percent and concluded he had invented the next big thing. I was incredulous that he should do that.
He wrote the report for publication saying so — the boss rejected it — there was a fistfight in the hallway with blood drawn — my office mate was “let go”. And, yes, time proved him wrong (not that it wasn’t obvious).
Its amazing how subjective some scientists can be.
I’ve been studying the phenomena of leukophobia for quite a few years but never had a word for it until now. Thanks for the links. It’s the same inverted racism expressed by the Suzanne Goldenberg article we discussed.
Ellie in Belfast: You asked, “What I am wondering is, for the super El Nino of 1998, how long did the heat it take to get to the arctic?”
In “Oceanic and atmospheric transport of multiyear El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signatures to the polar regions”, Jevrejeva et al (2004) write in their abstract, “The 2.2, 3.5 and 5.7 year signals detected in the Arctic are generated about three months earlier in the tropical Pacific Ocean.”
Then in the conclusion they clarify it: “We provide evidence of ENSO influence on the winter climate variability in NH during the last 150 years via signals in the 2.2, 3.5, 5.7 and 13.9 year bands. The contribution from the signals to the total variance is relatively weak, varies considerably with time, but is statistically significant. Phase relationships for the different frequency signals suggest that there are different mechanisms for distribution of the 2.2–5.7 year and the 13.9 year signals. The 2.2–5.7 year signals are most likely transmitted via the stratosphere, and the AO mediating propagation of the signals, through coupled stratospheric and tropospheric circulation variability that accounts for vertical planetary wave propagation.”
Back in the abstract Jevrejeva write, “In contrast, we show that the 13.9 year signal propagates eastward from the western Pacific as equatorial coupled waves (ECW, 0.13-0.15 ms-1), and then as fast boundary waves (1-3 ms-1) along the western margins of the Americas, with a phase difference of about 1.8-2.1 years by the time they reach the Arctic.”
And they explain in the conclusion, “The delay of about two years in the 13.9 year signals detected in polar region can be explained by the transit time of the 13.9 year signal associated with ECW (0.13–0.17 ms_1) propagation in the Pacific ocean, KBW (1– 3 ms_1) propagation along the western margins of the Americas and by poleward-propagating of atmospheric angular momentum [Dickey et al., 2003]. This mechanism is supported by similar features in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic SST field.”
FYI, ECW = equatorial coupled waves and KBW = Kelvin boundary waves.
In “The interdecadal variation characteristics of arctic sea ice cover-Enso-East asian monsoon and their interrelationship at quasi-Four years time scale” (How’s that for a paper title?), [2007], Congwen et al found sea ice lags ENSO event by 6 to 9 months.
http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/ch/reader/create_pdf.aspx?file_no=990413&flag=1&journal_id=aas
You asked, “Could we assume that the higher than normal temperatures persisted for a few years, perhaps up to 2004?”
In addition to the Jevrejeva paper, refer to my post “The Lingering Effects of the 1997/98 El Nino.” I illustrated how the SST anomalies for the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans dropped very little in the years afterwards. Then the 2002/03 El Nino bumped the SST anomalies for that area back up again. Could the same lingering effects apply to the Arctic? Possibly.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/lingering-effects-of-199798-el-nino.html
I also prepared a post on the effects of volcanic eruptions and ENSO events on high latitude temperature volatility.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/01/enso-and-volcanic-aerosols-explain-most.html
Hope that helps.
USA: 358 lowest temps and 409 snowfall records broken for week ending Apr 2, 2009
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/7day/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,snow
(are some of the red dots UHI? You can mouse over the dots for data)
Sorry for the OT, I found a healthy problem with RegEM in the antarctic paper.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/04/04/whats-wrong-with-regem/
I had a look at the article cited by JohnH, (09:19:35) :
” This is a keeper. The claims in the article are hilarious.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10482139
”
Truly absurd, but then it is from Reuters who recycle every Press release.
One glaring idocy in the above article, ” … where for the first time in recorded history, ships sailed across the Arctic Ocean in water that had been part of the polar ice cap, said Donald Perovich of the US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in New Hampshire.”
Must be a pretty small recorded history.
Looking at the Hansen’s Godthab graph one could conclude that ice extent at the North Pole is dependent on more than just surface temperature. When I compare Godthab to Arctic sea ice extent since 1900I don’t see much of a correlation.
As compassionate beings we must wish these three zealots a safe return.
Because we are only human, I’ve indulged myself with conjecturing on what their approach to ice will be whence they are back in good old carbon-spewing civilization:
1. They’ll never put ice in their highballs, again – ever.
2. They’ll put their freezers in permanent defrost mode.
3. “White Christmas” will be banished from their song books .
4. . . . . . I’m working on others . . . . ;0)
John H (09:59:31) :
“The Inconvenient Day After Truth”
You, sir, will be hearing from my attorneys. Someone has to pay to clean this cola off my monitor, and surgically repair the nostril that ejected it. J/k, of course. Funny stuff.
Having seen the BBC show Top Gear (Polar Special) where they drive with a truck to the north pole and following the Catlin Arctic Survey with there resupply flights and what have you.
I’m wondering who will have the smaller carbon footprint reaching the north pole.
One thing is for sure the Top Gear team was much better prepared for the trip.
Richard: But how much ice melt will be aided by non-white ash deposition onto what is usually near-pristine white? This could change the absorptive properties enough that once the sun reaches the ice, faster melt, and sooner water albedo in melt areas (rather than ice albedo). Not saying it is definitely going to happen, but could.
This would be true if a signifcant portion of the particulates ever reached the main Arctic ice. In fact, most of these fall out rather quickly within a few hundred miles downstream from the eruption site.
What causes volcanic activity at high latitudes to result in cooling of the arctic aren’t particulates, but gases, specifically SO2, which are introduced into the upper atmosphere during powerful eruptions. The mixture of SO2, H2O and O3 in the upper atmosphere combine to form H2SO4 [3 SO2 + 3 H20 + O3 = 3 H2SO4] . Although the melting point of pure H2SO4 is around 3°C, this point lowers rapidly with its dilution in H20 and at 65% is around -64°C. So, it is these micrometer sized particles of solid H2SO4 in the upper atmosphere that can be very effective reflectors of incoming SW solar radiation while remaining fairly transparent to outgoing LW radiation. That’s where the surface cooling effect comes from.
Just Want Truth… (16:06:45) :
USA: 358 lowest temps and 409 snowfall records broken for week ending Apr 2, 2009
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/7day/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,snow
(are some of the red dots UHI? You can mouse over the dots for data)
The lows in the east half of Texas track in a band between the major population centers (and further west is at a higher altitude).
http://www.texaslegacy.org/m/curriculum/maps/texas.population.png
http://www.worldmapsonline.com/hs954texasstatemaprr.htm
Well, just noticed that one of the lows is from Austin-Bergstrom IA, but it is on the far east side of Austin. 🙂
I think you may have perhaps missed the most ridiculous statement .. “even the effects of man-made global warming are marginally reduced, though just by three-tenths of a degree at most.”
Can someone tell me just how it is possible to determine that warming is reduced by “three-tenths of a degree at most” ???
And, if that is 0.3C, would that not put us bellow the 20th century mean?
Unbelievable BS (bad science) !!!
Documentary?
eh hem…
Since when did this Sci-Fi movie become a documentary?
Steven Goddard (08:33:15) :
Leif,
Your hyper-accurate calculation is correct, but I think that temperatures will have to start tailing off as they approach absolute zero. Perhaps they will settle at around -150F, as in the excellent documentary “The Day After Tomorrow.”
Vostok low April 4 – 70c
That graph from RSS shows a large warming over the period of record. 4 cold weeks don’t wipe out a 30 year warming trend.
This blog just keeps getting worse.
Not according to ex navy Physicist James A Marusek.
See this
OT – British Antarctic Survey reports that an ice bridge to the Wilkens Ice sheet ruptured – http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7984054.stm – and for better images: http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEMD07EH1TF_index_0.html
The BBC plays it up as usual – area size of Jamaica etc. This map puts it more into perpective http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEMWZS5DHNF_index_1.html
Bob Tisdale (15:53:22) :
Thank you Bob, I have been interested in your posts previously.
There is a journalist article in this week’s Science profiling mathematician Ken Golden who has been using composite-powder models to understand the behaviour of sea ice (with brine channel inclusions etc.) which is very poorly handled in climate models. I have not yet gone back to read any of his original papers but the article got me thinking. A key finding is:
“When temperatures are just below freezing, the ice becomes permeable, allowing warm water to percolate up through it.” The critical temperature appears to be –5°C.
I wondered if this would link the residual warmth to the Arctic ice miminum in 2007, and even the recent (disputed) warming and ice losses in the Antarctic Peninsula. If we had several years of ice thinning from below due to warmer surface temperatures this would ‘set up’ conditions for a greater loss of ice in summer. I do see a difficulty with transfer of Pacific ocean heat much further than the Bering Sea – I am interested to read more on the PDO/AMO and teleconnections and I will reread some of your posts.
“DJ (22:37:57) :
That graph from RSS shows a large warming over the period of record. 4 cold weeks don’t wipe out a 30 year warming trend.
This blog just keeps getting worse.”
Oh good…Sunday morning trolling, DJ? All done with the Times crossword, walked the dog, and now time for some fun at WUWT?
Can you explain what time period you would accept to identify a valid climate trend?
JimB
DJ (22:37:57) :
That graph from RSS shows a large warming over the period of record. 4 cold weeks don’t wipe out a 30 year warming trend.
It’s actually part of a 4 YEAR trend, but hey, why bother with picky details when you’re busy banging that warmist drum, eh DJ?
Funny, I don’t see anywhere in the article where it claims anything about the 30-year warming trend being “wiped out”, so nice straw man there DJ. Good job!
This blog just keeps getting worse.
Translation: “The better this blog gets, the more I hate it because it threatens my warmist ideology which I am clinging to so desperately.”
Cathy,
4. They’ll have the air conditioners removed from their houses and cars.
5. They’ll find a country that has no word for “snow” or “ice” and move there.
6. They’ll hope for solar maximum.
7. They’ll collaborate on a new book called, “Global Warming-Bring it ON”
The Catlin crew is learning what Lewis Pew learned last September when he tried to kayak from the northern most point of Norway to the North Pole–a distance of some 1200 kilometers. Pew made it all of 120 ks and had to abandon his most excellent adventure due to heavy ice and cold weather. Of course the media only reported the beginning of this adventure but failed to ever report on Pew’s abandonment due to too much of the frozen stuff! When it comes to the truth on the issue of AGW and the polar ice caps the media seems to be all frozen over at the mouth!
DJ
“That graph from RSS shows a large warming over the period of record. 4 cold weeks don’t wipe out a 30 year warming trend.”
Stay around you may learn something. First, more than 4 weeks, at least 4 years by his graph since 2005. The first graph starts in 1979…the end of a 30 year cooling period.
I’ve just noticed IARC-JAXA is not updating it’s plot but is updating the data.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/Arctic-Extent.jpg
The extent is still healthy for this time of year.
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@ Mike:
;-D
Those were good!
Back to the drawing board!
Oh! Oh! Mike! I’ve got another one:
8. When they get a ‘cold’ they will not refer to it as such but instead use the term rhinovirus.
Let’s do a re-write of the above (Steven Goddard (06:57:19) :):
(Please don’t “misunderestimate” the climatological significance of four years. According to the world’s preeminent climatologist Dr. James Hansen, four years is very significant…)
Here is a possible re-write:
“According to the world’s political strategists, four years is very significant.
Al Gore has only four years to save his thesis and his reputation, to say nothing of the political hay that he and his friends are making out of a theory that is rapidly melting. This is the stark assessment of leading climate expert ….. who last week warned that only urgent action by the new president to get mammoth destructive and expensive legislation in place could halt the devastating opinion shift among climate scientists that now threatens the mega-industry of Global Warming Fanatasism……
…..
In fact, it appears from the circumstances, that the next four years is the most significant time frame in the past 4 1/2 billion years in terms transferring wealth and power to fewer and fewer international hands.”
Nothing wrong with the original comment, but I thought this was one possible useful revision. 🙂
I was about to say; I hope nobody is going to try and draw a straight line through that RSS data from 60-82.5 degrees (first graph) but then somebody went and did that anyway, when I clicked on the page and up came the second graph.
I wish people who draw straight lines on graphs, would append the Physics or other science, that argues that the function is supposed to be a straight line graph.
Absent that and all you have is wild guesswork.
I don’t see any hint of any staright linedness in that first RSS graph. Well I see the straight line graph is just for three years of data; which is weather I suppose, and not climate.
Speaking of climate; why would you average data from local climates; which seems to be what cycles like PDO and the like are about.
Averaging the local Antarctic climate with that from Saudi Artabia doesn’t seem to be instructional in any way.
George
It has always seemed odd to me that warming is always portrayed as something undesirable. There must be something in our collective consciousness that knows the truth about cold. The languages of earth have it right.
COLD…
Synonyms: apathetic, cold-blooded, dead, distant, emotionless, frigid, impersonal, indifferent, inhibited, inhospitable, joyless, passionless, standoffish, stony, unconcerned, undemonstrative, unenthusiastic, unfeeling, unimpassioned, unresponsive, unsympathetic
Antonyms: animated, ardent, eager, enthusiastic, excited, fervid, friendly, interested, sympathetic, warm, zealous
“”” DaveCF (09:33:28) :
If the ‘Catlin Clowns’ were really being scientific, don’t you think they would be recording and transmitting temperatures and positions as part of their ’scientific’ data? There is less science in this expedition than one would find in a kindergarten treasure hunt. Of course they do have their uncalibrated ice thickness radar and that doesn’t sound like real radar to me either… Colour me sceptical of any benefits from this foolish outing. “””
Well I have a colleague at work who at one time was a Lieutenant in the US Navy; well specifically on a Nuclear Submarine (can’t tell me which one), and he spent a bunch of time underneath that Arctic sea ice; and he says they have all kinds of equipment for measuring the thickness of that ice and have done so; and no they aren’t likely to tell us what the data they have says. Well after he got out of the Navy he joined Scripps Inst; so he is a Degreed Oceanographer as well; and once degreed, he did some Arctic research for arctic ocean oil prospectors, and saw a lot more of that under the ice stuff again.
He tells me, that over most of that arctic ocean the ice typically runs about one metre thick; but of course with weather it can fold and crack and pile up so some smalls pots can be a lot thicker, but he says if you averaged one metre over the whole ice covered area you would about have the total ice about right. He also said that metre is about all that nuke commanders are comfortable about breaking through to surface. Can’t tell me the real limit but after one metre he says you better have a good reason. He also said that you could come up in total ice free water, and the next day find the same spot totally ice covered; which might then go away again.
The bottom of the ice is very briny and teeming with life from bacteria to shrimps and critters that eat them. Whales which can eat bucket loads of shrimp like to go to the arctic to feed, and they move around as the ice moves around because that’s how they find food.
Oh by the way; CO2 doesn’t dissolve in ice; so when that ice grows, as it does starting around mid September, (solstice) all the CO2 that is in the sea water which is about ocean maximum since that is the coldest (surface)water on earth; gets ejected from the ice just like the salt does; into that cold and CO2 saturated water; which immediately expels it to the atmosphere; which is why you get that 18 ppm CO2 cycle in the Arctic. Check back through recent archives to see that neat CO2 pole to pole movie that Anthony had here a few weeks ago.
So you take a typical minimum of 6 (six) million square km of September sea ice (except for the last two or three years), and you grow another 8 (eight) million square km of sea ice through to April to end up with 14 million square km of sea ice currently. That means that the extra open water went from 8 squ km down to zero; leaving the normal amount of “permanent” open water.
So now take 8squ km of sea ice growth times a mean thickness of one metre and you get 8000 cubic km of new ice grown each fall/winter. So now from Henry’s law data you find the concentration of CO2 in that cold surface water, and figure out how much CO2 is in 8000 km^3 of that water, and that is how much CO2 gets vented to the atmosphere.
Take 8 million sqare km of new ice surface, and figure out the total weight of atmosphere on that surface; then figure out how much of that is CO2 at 380 ppm roughly; compare that to the amount of CO2 forced out of the water that froze; and I believe you should end up with an 18 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 over that part of the arctic.
Recent increases in the amplitude of the arctic CO2 cycle were often cited as evidence for global warming causing increased tree growth in the arctic so a greener earth.
But tree growth isn’t anywhere near the arctic ocean and that increased CO2 cycle amplitude, is simply proxy evidence for the fact that the last three years or so saw increased summer ice melting dropping the ice below the 6 million squ km to around 4.5; so that increased open water takes up more CO2 from the atmosphere, which is why the CO2 cyclic amplitude increased over the arctic in recent years. Nothing to do with tree growth at all.
I don’t know what the normal CO2 content of open arctic ocean water is; or else I would have done this calculation already; but if any of you practising climatologists want to do that; you can check out my thesis and report back to us here.
George
PS My ex Navy ex Scripps oceanographer agrees that because the coastline of Antarctica is way further north; than the southern perimeter of the Arctic ocean; and has warm surface tropical waters circulating and sloshing around down there, whereas the Arctic ocean is essentially landlocked, the seasonal sea ice growth around Antarctica is almost negligible, and most of that growth in thickness is from precipitation of water which evaporated from tropical and temperate oceans.
And that is why the CO2 cylcle amplitude over Antarctica is only about 1 ppm amplitude compared to 18 ove the Arctic; and of course it is six months out of phase.
Over most of the southern hemishpere there is almost no CO2 cycling like there is in the north, since most of the southern hemisphere is water; whose temperatures don’t change a lot seasonally , hence their CO2 content doesn’t change much either. In the northern hemisphere you have lots of land so lots of plant growth CO2 cycling, which happens pretty much at the same times as the Arctic ice melt,
So there’s no great mystery to that weird CO2 movie; it’s pretty obvious to me why it happens.
@ Mike.
Yes. You know what Robert ‘Frost’ had to say about the end of the world:
that what he knows of ‘hate’ . . . Ice would suffice.
And yes. It’s ‘desire’ that he equates with heat/fire.
Cold bad. Warm good. Period 😉
(I don’t think the poet intended his words as counters to global warming hysteria, but hey! the gloves are off)
Jimb et al. perhaps you could start with a trend which is significant. 4 weeks or 4 years ending in a solar minimum and La Nina is a data troll. There is a reason why this stuff never appears in science journals – and only on blogs. It’s not science.
Christian Bultmann (20:17:30) :
“Having seen the BBC show Top Gear (Polar Special) where they drive with a truck to the north pole and following the Catlin Arctic Survey with there resupply flights and what have you.
I’m wondering who will have the smaller carbon footprint reaching the north pole.
One thing is for sure the Top Gear team was much better prepared for the trip.”
Top Gear drove to the 1996 magnetic pole, which is around a thousand miles short of the “north pole” Catlin is aiming for. A comparison of carbon footprints or anything else can’t be made of the Top Gear and Catlin trips.
But I estimate if all went according to plan with no additional trips to resupply, that just the fuel for the Twin Otter trips will be at minimum 5000 gallons. I’d call that about a size 15 footprint for a 1000 km jaunt.
In comparison though with a 2000km journey in a truck (1000 both ways and no air support) that got say 10 km per gallon using 200 gallons, Top Gear would win hands down.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/route_globe.aspx
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/assets/downloads/RouteMap.pdf
http://polar.nrcan.gc.ca/about/manual/ch1/2_e.php
According to NSIDC the artic warmer this winter.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090406_Figure4.png
Steve G scaremongering again ! 😉
Did Mr George Wills ever get proven right about reaching the 1979- average as Steve claimed would soon happen?
Nope.
Regards
Andy
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/route_globe.aspx
I wondered why this route was chosen… now I know…
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090406_Figure5.png
I wonder if it’s working out like they expected… I don’t think so. Too bad they won’t man up and share the data…
ScienceDaily (Apr. 6, 2009) — The latest data from NASA and the University of Colorado at Boulder’s National Snow and Ice Data Center show the continuation of a decade-long trend of shrinking sea ice extent in the Arctic, including new evidence for thinning ice as well.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090406132602.htm
[snip, way off topic, way too political]