Catlin Expedition: Impaired Judgment?

I hope whoever is sponsoring that expedition is paying attention to their blog. They need to get those people out of there immediately, they seem to have lost the capacity to make rational decisions on their own.
Not that there was anything rational about that expedition to begin with…

Clueless? pathetic? They obviously have no business being where they are. I only hope they don’t become mortal victims of the AGW fallacy.

Every cause loves a martyr. Maybe that’s what they’re shooting for.
6 days without sleep and wet sleeping bags in the arctic? As you said, if they don’t get him out of there soon he’s gonna be a corpsicle.

In a previous post, it was suggested that we should all have some degree of respect for this group as they attempt to do their survey. I’m sorry, but not from me. This is yet another example of zealots masquerading a scientists. (Though I’m sure they have earned various degrees from like minded providers) I’m not holding my breath in anticipation of any science coming out of this farce. If it looks good on TV then it can’t be science. Years of watching Discovery Canada’s “Daily Propaganda Planet” has proved this hypothesis.

I noticed that dynamic too in other arenas. The other day, George Soros said “I’m having a good crisis.” Imagine if a libertarian or Republican said that! But it’s ok for Soros to make billions off the recession/depression, he supports the Democrats! Note that Warren Buffett also is granted immunity for his support of Obama. The same with Hollywood. It is all a big extortion racket. If you are rich, but support the “right” causes i.e. Global Warming, Obama, etc then you are exempt from criticism. But if not, then you will be attacked.

I once spent 3 nights camping in the mountains of northern BC during early March. Our little expedition was adequately prepared for -10C to -20C, but not for the -35C we got that week.
We had trees, as we were near tree line, and so we were able to get a fire going each night. We even had a kerosene space heater for inside the canvas tent we used (which proved very inadequate at -35C).
Still, we got about 2 hours of sleep each night and were extremely lucky to not get frost-bite as the fires allowed us to to take off our boots for a few hour each day.
We learn from these experiences – or at least we should. I vowed never again to work for the cheap SOB who sent us out there and have not winter camped since, either for work or pleasure.
The amazing thing was that we able to replicate a series of soil samples collected during the previous summer – which was the point of the exercise. Ah, the joys of science.

There comes a point when the risks involved with public relations are just foolish. While I believe amateurs can do scientific work of quality, this isn’t it. Call off the ‘expedition’ and get warm.

I’m very much hoping that we’ll be a republic before Prince “less than 100 months” Charles becomes king. I think he’s a nut and a hypocrite, and if he’s excusing the jet travel because he offsets then I’d say he is also a fool.

The arrogant elitists such as the Prince and Gore (not to mention the Hollywood crowd) who demand we reduce our carbon footprint while spewing tons of CO2 jetsetting around the world makes me sick.
At least those naive souls on the ice are putting their lives on the line for their beliefs. Not that that makes them any less foolish and wrong.

The scientific merit of this expedition was doubtful from the start. The result was predictable. These deserve their lot.

Darwin award candidates.Scott was prepared compared to this. What is really sad is that whomever rescues them is putting their life on the line to pluck them out-if they survive.
BTW-I was frostbitten in a back country trip in the high Wallowas of NE Oregon-XC skiing -the patient should get the H*** out NOW.

Anyone know when the next resupply takes place? That would be a good time to evacuate Martin Hartley before something tragic occurs to him.

We all know how it will end. They will be evacuated short of their goal. It will be blamed on AGW

I think they’re running for a Darwin Award. I don’t know whether to root for them or not. If they don’t qualify, you can bet on seeing their faces in future AGW articles about the melting of the arctic ad nauseam. If they qualify, they’ll be hailed as martyrs to the “cause” and their faces will show up in future AGW articles about the melting of the arctic ad nauseam.
[snip]

The monarchy is the lesser of two evils and has saved us from the possibility of such heads of state as Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, The Peoples Princess, Elton John or Jade Goody. Charles’s mentors do him and us a great disservice in not advising at least a modicum of reservation in his perceived espousal of the AGW cause and are indeed allowing him to expose himself to possible future ridicule as the Prince with no clothes.
As far as offsetting is concerned it is hardly remarkable that a man who famously talks to his plants should embrace the concept of planting a whole lot more trees.

Have a look at this site from Danish Meteorological Institute. Daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
See the archive 1958-2009 (nothing unusual) I can’t see the global warming. Right now the melting season starts…the temp dive below average (all heat-energy sucked out of the air) due the melting process

Well said Roger.
The jade Goody epethet is pertinent.
If people did not have ‘royalty’ they would invent it – in the guise of ‘notoriety’.
And as the global warming anti globalisation anti G20 protesters so amply demonstrate – if we did not have religion we would have to invent it.

S.E.Hendriksen (09:07:37) :
Interesting web site link, thanks. In doing a quick scan of various years, I was struck by the consistency of the ~90 day summer temps. The average summer temp barely gets above +1C. Most years track the average very closely, which would tend to indicate the melting is not atmospheric heat transfer. Convection of daylight warm temps and solar absorption may play a role, but one would have to think that warmer ocean circulation is the biggest factor. You’re right, however, that there appears to be no significant atmospheric warming during the summer months in this graphic display.

I wonder who is going to share the proceeds from the books, miniseries and movie that will show how these “heros braved unspeakable hardships” in order to help save the planet.

Having wintered over in the Antarctic, and a proud member of the -200deg club (please don’t ask that is possible. It does relate to a sauna, bunny boots and a short jog) – all i can say is – these men are either foolish, or zealots. A combination of the two will be deadly.

The photo shows a possibly very dangerous situation for someone perhaps parked well below the peak of what looks like a sea-ice pressure ridge. These are formed by wind and ocean current forces that move the sea ice around on the surface and cause it to pile up in those ridges. Wnen I was working briefly at Point Barrow in the winter of 1948 (studying ice formations gosh — already 61 years ago!) I was warned by a native about pressure ridges, particularly the tall ones. In my younger day, I liked to climb them, and recall some were even a dozen feet higer than the surrounding rough ice surface. They should be approached with great caution because polar bears sometimes lurk just on the other side, waiting for a jucy meal. Worse yet, their coloration makes them virtually invisible against a white snow/ice background. Love those bears, but don’t feed them with a short-lived regret.
bob p.

Per,
Good news for you.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/

Saturday, 28th March 2009
Today the Catlin Arctic Survey team are switching off their lights to support Earth Hour.

Trevor (09:26:34) :
And as the global warming anti globalisation anti G20 protesters so amply demonstrate – if we did not have religion we would have to invent it.
Who woulda thunk that a Guardianista wants you to follow new UN approved global religions
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/andrewbrown/2009/mar/26/religion-rowan-williams-atheism

Steve,
The global sea ice anomaly (red, bottom line) seems to contain the “failing sensor” data from Jan-Feb of this year. This is the “area” measurement. The ice “extent” data from here . . .
http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
. . . does not show a decline in this time frame. The third week of January shows a stall in the growth. In the last few days the increase stopped and the trend has turned down. While ice extent did not reach the 1979-2000 average it is well above (500,000 sq. km) the 2006-2007 line.
Perhaps it is the “area” versus “extent” definitions causing my confusion about this. What is the better “number” to watch.
Regarding the Catlin expedition measurements: The quote you use says
“I made 48 snow measurements after we’d stopped
walking today – the best yet.”
While their top-of-web-site postings, under the heading “Pioneering technology” makes this statement . . .
“The Catlin Arctic Survey has developed and tested a portable,
ice-penetrating radar. This will take continuous and detailed measurements of both the snow and ice layers . . . ”
Maybe I’m a little fuzzy on the meaning of “continuous.”

John,
I would suggest ignoring the minor fluctuations and differences in the NSIDC graphs. Note that the current deficit is in the Sea of Okhotsk, which is an isolated basin that normally melts completely before the summer arrives.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent.png
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.14.html
In other words, the fact that NSIDC ice extent is slightly below “normal” provides essentially no useful information with respect to the upcoming summer minimum.

Just been watching the real ice flood problems in Red River Valley. It would be nice to have a post on this real weather issue.

“I made 48 snow measurements after we’d stopped
walking today – the best yet.”

I can see some merit if in taking a large number of measurements that they are in a well documented area (grid) to allow them to characterize the roughness of the lower surface of the ice vs the apparent smoothness of the upper surface.
The question is, was this a systematic grid of measurements that will be useful or just a random walk to multiple locations?
It might have some value depending on what other data was collected at the same time, such as precise locations of the measurements and pictorial documentation of the upper ice surface appearance and any near by pressure ridge structures etc.
Their media information, implied that they would make a chain of “continuous” measurements as they moved. From their comments, it would be logical for an outside observer to assume they were stopping every so many meters taking a measurement with the ground penetrating radar, and validating it (or some fraction of them) with a bored hole to physically measure the ice and snow cover thickness to compare to the instrumental readings.
If I had to guess, I think their data gathering is degenerating into a random set of measurements without adequate controls, since they have not mentioned anything about their methodology and control measures for the measurements.
You would think such efforts to provide good data would have been documented but I have not seen it if it was.
Only time will tell on this issue I suspect.
Larry

This is sad and laughably so. I wish no harm on my fellow man no matter their stupidity, religious or political standing but I do believe that people must face the consequences of their (stupid in this case) actions and if it brings them harm so be it. Maybe they hope the god of global warming will swoop down and save them from their plight. Have faith Caitlin Expedition, show the rest of the heathen world the dire “peril” of AGW!
This amusingly reminds me of NBC sending the equally amateur Anne Curry and her camera crew on a trek to the top of Kilamanjaro (only to stop 3000′ before summit) so they can take pictures of retreating glaciers. Why must these amateurs be put in harms way when there are easier and more valuable ways of obtaining the same data without burning all those fossil fuels jet-setting around the world to show us idiots that we’re annihilating the planet with our SUV’s?

So they were cold, wet, tired, and now they are in the dark.
Who makes the decision to get them out ? Those on the ice don’t seem to be able to.
G

It was obvious from the beginning that this was much more about PR than science, which is why they’re in the bind they’re now in. If achieving science was the goal, it would have been clear early on that their lack of preparedness had compromised any hope of accomplishing anything useful and they could have been pulled out to try again with better planning,but since the real goal was PR they must soldier on, endangering their lives and any that maybe called upon to rescue them eventually, because surrendering to the brutal cold strikes a major blow to warmist propaganda.

John F. Hultquist (10:52:35) :
“Regarding the Catlin expedition measurements: The quote you use says
“I made 48 snow measurements after we’d stopped
walking today – the best yet.”
While their top-of-web-site postings, under the heading “Pioneering technology” makes this statement . . .
“The Catlin Arctic Survey has developed and tested a portable,
ice-penetrating radar. This will take continuous and detailed measurements of both the snow and ice layers . . . ”
Maybe I’m a little fuzzy on the meaning of “continuous.”
As am I, the “ice thickness data” and “biotelemetry” on the website has been in “standby” mode every time I visit the site. Maybe data is being received but not shown on the website. But then why include the graphic at all on the website in that case?
“High-resolution cross-profiles of the snow and ice will be gathered every 10cm along the 1,200-km survey route. The raw data will then be processed by SPRITE’s own computer, before being transferred across to the central on-board sledge computer for compression, and then up-linked, via the Iridium satellites back to the survey’s UK Headquarters.
It will then be re-formatted and distributed to our Science Partners. ”
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/technology_sprite

Under English Health & Safety Legislation an employer has a Duty of Care to his Employees. Likewise an employee has a Duty of Care to fellow employees and his employer; curiously this also applies between the government and troops on active duty in Iraq and Afganistan.
I suspect, but am not certain, that this “Duty of Care” also applies to any sponsors that are British based, or sponsors that have a business in Britain. I would encourage all sponsors to question the wisdom of carrying on with this mission. If anything happens to the “explorers” the Health & Safety Executive are likely to press charges against the sponsors for not doing a complete “Risk Assessment”.
In the event of anything going wrong Health & Safety always ask, “With hindsight is there anything you can think of now that should have been done to prevent this accident?” As soon as you suggest something they have got you; an imcomplete “risk assessment” means prosecution.
I wonder if anybody from our Health & Safety Executive read this blog? If so “Watch this Space”!

This is human nature people. It’s hard to believe, and terribly depressing, but human beings are indeed this stupid. They will continue to believe in and pursue something even when their imminent deaths, which prove the opposite, are staring them in the face.
I thought James Hansen protesting a coal power plant in the middle of an unseasonal snowstorm, after an abnormally cold winter, was ignorant. But this takes the cake.
I only wish that if they’re going to commit suicide on the ice in the name of AGW and “disappearing ice” that it would be televised. Let the world see them shivering, suffering, slowly freezing to death. Let their teeth chatter as they tell a news reporter by satellite feed “we’re reporting from the Arctic ice cap, where the…the…the ice is…iss…melting”, then pan the camera to show just how much ice is around them. Let the average person who has not placed their faith in almighty climate models see this first hand and declare “what a bunch of idiots.”
I’m sorry to be mean, but you can’t save human beings from themselves. The most you can hope to do is protect other human beings. If these people want to die for their faith on the Arctic ice cap, let it be publicized wide and far so that perhaps other people won’t have to die for their faith.

Steven Goddard (10:08:04) :
Per,
Good news for you.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/
Saturday, 28th March 2009
Today the Catlin Arctic Survey team are switching off their lights to support Earth Hour.
Oh good. Because switching off what – a couple of lanterns will certainly go a long way towards compensating for the humongous “carbon footprint” of an expedition like this. Not. Are they serious? They must be losing it.

Have they put their lights off too, to save the planet ?

I am concerned about their welfare.
But . . .
Is it possible they are exaggerating their condition a teeny bit?

During the last 8 days, they’ve made their best progress and advanced about 70 km. At that rate they have 93 more days and won’t be to the pole until the end of June. The original estimate was at 100 days. This new math would put them at 123 days if they have no further setbacks. I wish them no ill, but the sponsors should get them off the ice!
Let the sponsors know how you feel about this:
catlininfo@catlin.com
patrick.birley@ecx.eu
press.services@nokia.com
tburgess@hillandknowlton.com
hasan.abdat@polarcapital.co.uk
info@jenrickgroup.co.uk
contact@triplepoint.co.uk
enquiries@prometheusmed.com
info@hidalgo.co.uk
reception@canadiannorth.com
mayday@bitc.org.uk
serge.viranian@climatefriendly.com
lwaters@london.newsquest.co.uk
info@sickchildrenstrust.org

In previous postings I said that they will be there until All Fools Day.
Martin had blister which was slowing them down.
It turned out to be frost bite. They and their backup team could not tell the difference. Do not think I will be using Catlin.
All Martin wanted for his birthday were twin Otters.
He got them but he did not fly out.
He has frost bite on his foot and does not fly out!!
Brave you might say, I cannot possibly comment.
48 measurement, from the one stop?
Says it all. A future trend of -0.000865677366(4) approximately.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Progress_on_the_ice
Is this the same guy who was chewing gum and explaining about the ice sheets crack up in his PARKA and no gloves; in the middle of the night.
This is beyond me.
But I know it will be a BBC scientific success.
This morning the BBC had Tom Avery on; in a through away line, he said that the ice at the North Pole would disappear by 2013. No comment from the BBC presenters. Well they knew it was true

WWF WWF not WFF.
Mind you.

Pen also says in his last blog entry: “It’s all part of the job, however, and we carry on regardless”
that is exactly right … who are we to interfere with with other peoples’ wishes, goals, or even lives ?

Point of curiosity. So they dawn the immersion suits and swim across. How in the world do they get the sledges across?

Based on their current condition, someone needs to get those people OUT!

If these are supposed to be experienced polar adventurers, then what in blazes are they doing heading out without vapor barrier liners for their sleeping bags? Are they so enamored of the AGW (and WWF) belief system that they dispensed with all sense?
Oh wait — they’re facing an expanse of open water, so that’s where they decide to take their measurements. Talk about confirmation bias.

they seem to have lost the capacity to make rational decisions
That’s what I got, too. They are about to die.

Don S (14:48:09) :
The second annual Arctic cockup originating in Blighty has gone very sour. I have said from the beginning that I feared for their well-being, now I’m extremely concerned.
Does anyone know what, in this line of endeavor, is being planned for next year?

See what you get – and I’m just picking one example – when you allow free thought?

Anyone not blinded by global warming hysteria can see them spiraling down.
Funny thing about free will, you can’t stop people from doing what they’re dead set on doing. If I could take a plane up there, pick them up, literally, put them in the plane, and fly them to where it’s warm, with some hot food and warm beds, I’d do it. But I can’t.
So I just have to sit here and watch this thing unfold.
Maybe they’re in that ‘death spiral’ Mark Serreze talks about, for real.

“”” S.E.Hendriksen (09:07:37) :
Have a look at this site from Danish Meteorological Institute. Daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year. “””
Howdy Sven,
It’s good to see your shingle show up here from time to time.
I’ll be sending you an e-mail when I get back to work next week. Are you up there picking the Viking Grape crop, or are you back on the mainland where it’s nice and warm.
I need to ask you some questions about the typical fractional loss and regrowth of the arctic ocean ice each season; in other words; what is the seasonal max ice (area and or mass) and what is the seasonal min in the summer.
I’m trying to figure out how much CO2 gets frozen out of the arctic ocean into the air when the fall refreeze starts up; so if you know what typical Arctic ocean water CO2 concentration is, that would be handy to know.
I figure if you don’t know the Arctic ice, nobody does.
Talk to you next week.
George

yyzdnl (14:56:21) :

Maybe it is the skepticism I have learned to apply from blogs like this one, but I question just how serious their situation is. They keep taking useless ice measurements, the cameraman can hike out of the way for those great distance pics, they have been making their best progress, and most important they haven’t been evacuated already.

Yep – spot on. I’m with you on this. This is a long expedition. The last thing they need is to be ignored. What better way to hold the public interest than with a series of “will they – won’t they make it” cliffhangers. It’s a key scenario in TV soap operas and, judging by the reaction to the post, the tactic is working.

I had put my money on Earth Day for the rescue mission…not sure they’ll make it that far, but I’m sticking with it for now.
JimB

The story will be that abnormal warming so early in the spring caused unexpected melting that got them wet and almost killed them.

So they dawn the immersion suits and swim across. How in the world do they get the sledges across?
I wondered about that, too, so looked at their equipment, and they have a Sledge Flotation Device, which attaches to the underside.

I wonder if they have a base camp medical safety officer with the authority to pull them off the ice regardless of their own wishes.
If they are in fact in the early stages of hypothemia, that makes them suseptible to cardiac irregularities if they take a fall. When body temperature is lower than normal and if they are dehydrated which is not uncommon in sever cold, the heart can get a bit cranky.
When in Mountain Rescue they advised us to be very gentle with hypothermic patients because a hard shock such as dropping the stretcher due to one of the rescuers tripping could send the patient into cardiac arrest (actually fibrillation same end result).
The recommended method of emergency warming in the field is the administration of hot IV’s and hot moist O2 as the lungs provide a very effective non-invasive method of heat transfer to the blood stream.
http://www.hypothermia.org/jama.htm
http://books.google.com/books?id=KnVu7VNPOP4C&pg=PA130&lpg=PA130&dq=rescue+Hypothermia+cardiac+arrhythmia&source=bl&ots=YR3xYwC8aE&sig=5z0yv5OsXPk08bx35qYO770485o&hl=en&ei=2uXOSZu5LdzinQeKuKTeCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result
I wonder if their equipment list include any means to accomplish either?
Larry

This entire expedition is insane. Supposedly AGW should have ameliorated the weather conditions. But they were blind to see it wasn’t what they were told to expect. Being dropped into -40 degree conditions with howling winds instead of balmy conditions should have woken them up. Someone is going to die.

My old Chief Pilot:”Son it isn’t so much the fear of dying that bothers me, its the mortal fear of screwing up WHILE dying…”

I think they’ll be out of the like the Roadrunner once things get dicey.

Lets hope their radios were not made by ACME and have a coyote logo on them.
Larry

Katherine (08:53:36) :
I think they’re running for a Darwin Award. I don’t know whether to root for them or not. If they don’t qualify, you can bet on seeing their faces in future AGW articles about the melting of the arctic ad nauseam. If they qualify, they’ll be hailed as martyrs to the “cause” and their faces will show up in future AGW articles about the melting of the arctic ad nauseam.
[snip]
Huh? What was offensive about the polar bear comment? I didn’t put a single imprecation or invective in that line.

insurance companies make huge profits from tihs.
their mathematicians compute much higher costs for their customers due to agw, and later, nothing happens.

The Telegraph reports that the ice is thinning at minus 40 degrees, and that the explorers had to start the expedition in the winter – before all the ice melts due to global warming.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5061498/Lacy-underwear-secret-tool-of-polar-expedition.html
Something about the mention of global warming causes some people to completely discard with any remaining common sense. If it was minus 40 in London, they would probably expect the Thames to freeze. Not so in the Arctic.

From their website
Total distance travelled
112.23 km
Average daily distance
4.0 km
Estimated distance to North Pole
806.73 km
Time on Arctic Ocean
28 days
800km to go @ 4km/day
200 Days!

The results of the Catlin expedition, which is supported by WWF and Prince Charles, will be fed to scientists and used to inform an international deal on climate change at the end of this year.
The data from walking in a straight line over ever-changing and always moving ice will be used to form policy this year. The data will not be compared to future data sets covering the same period of the year along the same route because there are no plans to repeat this trek yearly or this method of measuring the ice. It’s a publicity stunt adventure trying to pass for science.

Text of my email to their HQ.
“Hello,
This performance on the ice is pointless. One set of ice thickness measurements and no other data to compare them with. What’s the value of that? You admit the ice moves and presumably also thins and thickens, so the values measured at each grid reference point are wrong within minutes. Get them off the ice now or they’ll so lose more than their reputations. You must accept that the planet is moving into its regular cooling cycle and that setting out with the stated objective of confirming thinning ice is a PC programme to confirm your feelings. Proper science is about setting out to take the measurements and then evaluate the results, not just decide to try and confirm your religious beliefs. You are as silly as that fool in his kayak last year.”

“I wonder whether we’re looking at a staged and scripted ‘happening’. Will there be a miraculous series of ‘escapes’ as out brave trio battle against overwhelming odds, risking their very lives to save the planet, blah, blah…”
Like the crap of the Apollo landings being filmed on Earth?
Hmm, so the accusation is that there aren’t three people out there on the ice and this is all being staged somewhere a lot more convenient as an insurance multi-national marketing exercise…
Probably unfair, but sure to get a lot of cultist feathers ruffled 😀 😀

I was stationed by the Army for eighteen months in and around Fairbanks, AK During my first winter in the Tanana valley, all ‘chechakos’, i.e. rookies in the ‘Yuke’ had to camp out for two nights when the temperature hit -40. The first night was spent in a home-made lean-to. Even fully dressed, including parka, and tucked into a double sleeping bag with a scarf over nose and mouth, which had to be moved every few minutes so that frozen breath would not adhere to flesh, it was cold beyond belief. At one point, I went to the company campfire to fill my thermos with hot coffee just shy of the boiling point; a minute later, it was frozen solid.
However misguided this Catlin expedition is, I feel for these guys. Frostbite and hypothermia are not included in my celbratory attitude toward cold weather.

Sandy
Nah, no suggestion that this is taking place on a back lot in Hollywood (chuckle). Hadn’t thought about that interpretation.
No, rather that since ice-thickness data is conrtinuously monitored by a series of buoys deployed by the US Army (I think it’s the Army), there is, has been and will continue to be better overall data available than these dudes’ one-off reality TV show.
It’s fun to imagine this was the TexacoArcticSurvey with Texaco calling all the shots, the conclusion already having been reached that the ice is thickening and the brave Texaco-funded explorers confirming daily the brutal cold etc. Lordy can you imagine the apoplexy from the warmers … “Oil company risks lives of hired publicists in the cruel and heartless pursuit of headlines and profit” and so on.
This jaunt amounts to the equivalent of an editorial instruction to ‘go out these and get me a story that proves gang violence is running out of control’. That’s different from ‘go out there and find out what’s happening with gang violence’.
Interesting that Catlin is an insurance outfit. I mean, we know how popular some of them are these days. What a delicious irony had it been AIG!
The timing is interesting, of course. Every year the Arctic ice thaws from hereon in for the next six months. Look at this link. Then it refreezes. The whole hemisphere does the same, I think it’s called ‘summer’ or something like that.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Shouldn’t be hard to report, er, melting ice between now and the end of September. Given the Gore effect, I wonder whether the summer melt will be less than normal this year… (chuckle again)

bill,
You display the standard irrational thought process of the AGW community.
If anything happens to the explorers, it will be the fault of the people involved with the expedition – not those of us here suggesting that they be evacuated to receive proper warmth and medical attention.

bill (07:43:51) :
I would like to thank Steve Goddard for allowing the cold heart and ignorance of some of the posters here.
Some wishing their deaths, some hoping for their deaths, most expecting them to fail and die in their endeavours.
Their sponsers have paid for this trip. One would imagine they desire a few photos with their names prominently displated. Is this so bad?
I don’t see anyone here “wishing” for the deaths of these people. In fact very much the reverse; let’s see them withdrawn before a death occurs. What they are doing is not worth the risk to these people just to achieve publicity for the “sponsors.”

JimB (03:56:30) :
Both Biotelemetry and Ice thickness telemetry are not just in “Standby Enabled” mode – they simply do not work. The team has yet to uplink any data and instead is storing it on flash cards. Hmm. One reason for “Standby” biometrics is to avoid the world seeing how poorly their health may be. The minus 40C temps will continue to freeze Martin’s frostbitten flesh and likely result in permanent disability or amputation.
To lose an appendage in the name of a falsified theory seems a rather unnecessary sacrifice. It is up to the sponsors at this point to pull the plug – get these poor souls off the ice and perhaps save three lives in the process.

I cant see that the team has communicated for around 36 hours. Anyone got any current information?
tonyb

Steven Goddard (09:01:45) :
You display the standard irrational thought process of the AGW community.
If anything happens to the explorers, it will be the fault of the people involved with the expedition – not those of us here suggesting that they be evacuated to receive proper warmth and medical attention.
I have displayed no thought processes – I would not ask, do not expect, and will not endorse dangerous exploits – everest, k2, matterhorn, either pole – If someone wants to attempt expeditions to such places I am sure they know the dangers, and hope they have been educated into health in such places. If rescues are required, then again I am sure that the rescuers have taken this profession of their own free will.
Some of the comments here must be very hurtful to their families and friends.

if what their blog says is true, then it made no sense for them to take 48 samples in a small area. Well, the whole thing makes no sense. They could just look up the ice data on the internet.
But If it’s true they are in over their heads. Who will pull them out?
Then again, maybe they are exaggerating for effect and $.

You can check this out. A number of you excuse Pen Hadow because you assume he has a degree in some climate related science. I am sure I read an article by him before the expedition started. He is a Harrow School old boy and takes pride that he was so stupid he could barely pass any GCSEs. (For Americans – a high school (very high school) drop out.) Now, I hope I am not maligning him but I think this is the case. He should not be leading an expedition of this sort.

For anyone wondering about the depth of inquiry and rigid protocol in place to insure truly scientific results from the “brave trio’s” intrepid adventure just refer back to the Catlin Arctic Survey site and read the intro blurbs which rotate under the first dramatic photo. Here are a couple of them.
—
“For the sake of our children and grandchildren, I pray that we will heed the findings of the Catlin Artic Survey, and I can only commend this remarkably important project to you.”
HRH The Prince of Wales
—
“Your planned measurements will provide an unprecedented data set of snow and ice that will allow us to better characterize the current state of the Arctic sea ice cover and project its declining trend.”
Dr. Ron Kwok – Senior research scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA
—
Well, there we have it. Certainly no bias evident there huh?

wilson Flood
Pen Hadow is by no means stupid and is also a highly experienced polar explorer. He also gives motivational speeches and is just the sort of person to lead an expedition.
http://centres.exeter.ac.uk/cls/documents/PenHadowJuly04.pdf
However, the conditions are very severe and with the onerous scientific duties-for a project which I think is pointless-he may have bitten off more than he can chew.
The last I heard they were pondering whether to swim across some open water in an immersion suit. Hopefully they thought better of it.
Lets hope they all make it back safely but I am beginning to have serious concerns for their well being.
Tonyb

Too much Catlin Team. Let’s go back to talking about Freeman Dyson.

Why were they playing with the black lacy panties while still on the airplane? Was that their preference in windsocks or does the team normally trot out their used underwear before every expedition? It’s very, very odd.

“I made 48 snow measurements after we’d stopped
walking today – the best yet.”
I suspect they’ve found the thinnest ice cover so far.
GET OUT OF THERE! PLEASE!!!
DaveE.

This is not a comment, but rather a question. I have come across news that there’s another expedition heading towards the North Pole, as of now. It’s been undertaken by the International Peary-Henson Centennial North Pole Team.
http://www.pr-inside.com/international-peary-henson-centennial-north-r1148220.htm
http://www.humanedgetech.com/expedition/pe/
http://www.polarexplorers.com/expeditions/PearyHensonExpedition.htm
Why is it that there’s been hardly any press coverage about the latter, whereas the Catlin non-sense draws so much attention? Both started out almost simultaneously, but despite the historical importance the Peary-Henson endeavour appears to bear, it seems there’s nobody up there apart from the Catlin people.
Thanks,
M.

This update seems to be today:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx

They are not alone. The Navy is up there now doing an ICEX 2009 operation (See: http://www.sublant.navy.mil/)
It should be a piece of cake for the Navy to track them down and pop a submarine up through the ice just in time.

Adding to the absurdity of this expedition, the UK telegraph is reporting the following:
“When compasses and GPS fail the Catlin Arctic Survey expedition, they go with a low tech “gadget” to help them navigate the freezing wastes and find their bearing: A lacy pair of panties.”…
Limk: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5061498/Lacy-underwear-secret-tool-of-polar-expedition.html
Even the techy crowd at Gizomod is getting a chuckle out of it:
“The panties serve as a wind sock of sorts, as the team attaches them to a ski pole and uses wind as a guide to the North Pole”.
Link: http://i.gizmodo.com/5189268/panties-help-guide-700+mile-arctic-expedition-when-gps-compasses-fail.
I wonder if the typical check list of things to bring on an Arctic expedition includes a lacy pair of panties?… WUWT?…
Don Penim

Tallbloke wrote
“How the heck are they powering all this equipment?”
I looked the other day and their website has info. Here. For power, scroll down to the piece by Perran. I’m only semidemi informed on therse matters and cannot comment on the soundness of the strategy.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/technology
I was at the time looking for their computers when I found this. -40 is beyond the operating range of most, but I found a newish Dell laptop that would work. This one. And presumably there are more such specialised devices.
http://www.dell.com/xfr
http://www.augmentix.com/products/xtg630_fully-rugged_notebook
Unrelated, how interesting that such as this fabulous device costs three grand or so, the same kind of dough the earliest ‘portables’ cost in the early eighties, such as the Osborne with its mighty 5″ monochrome screen!
From the tropics, where as has been noted before in these pages, the melting ice is confined to the epipelagic layer of gin & tonic and the like, and is under more or less continuous observation in tens of thousands of locations at any given moment. Discounting those locations situated near airports and on hot asphalt (Anthony), and confining the sampling to shady courtyards and such, I think we expats can provide more accurate estimates of local melt rates and the (frequently rapid) replenishment cycle than the insurance company will be able to do after the present more northerly exercise.
Alec

Ann has set fire to her tent!!! Cool.
And “The stoves have been a bit temperamental in the extreme cold ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
The map shows just how well they are doing.

Heart rate under 100bpm with respatory rates of over 150 and as high as 300 breaths per minute. Hyperventilating? Can’t be right. Skin temps of 30.5 BRRR.

This from today’s ‘Latest Update’

This reads sort of odd to me. Way too dramatic for someone journaling. Maybe I am just tainted and overly sceptical. On the other hand maybe there is a bit of elaboration going on in the telling of this tale.
I can’t wait for the part where they have to swim the last 600 km. That really will be exciting. I hope they can keep up their ‘Updates’ without too much problem.

I recently wrote to Jonathon Amos at the BBC about the Catlin Arctic survey. Below is my question and at the end is Jonathon’s answer. Make of it what you will …………
Sent: 21 March 2009 19:32
To: Jonathan Amos-Online
Subject: BBC : The Catlin Arctic Survey.
Dear Jonathan
I refer to your recent article on the BBC website (link here).http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7902766.stm I have been following with interest the brave work of the three polar explorers who are currently exploring the Arctic and studying the level of ice decline that is taking place and I have come across the following article (see attached link) that has left me with some questions about this Arctic expedition and the BBC’s coverage of it and the questions not asked / points not made by the BBC. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/18/arctic-ice-thickness-measured-from-buoys/ Having read this article, I would be grateful if you look at the following questions and explain why your BBC website article does not raise these points for the reader nor does it draw attention to the fact that any evidence from the Catlin Arctic Survey will have major limitations :
1. how are the explorers able to measure ice decline from a single set of data points taken at minus 40C, measured over an eight week period?.
2. Will the team be revisiting the site next year for further measurements ?
3. If the ice is not in the same place as last year due to being moved around by the wind, how will this impact upon the consistency and integrity of the ice data that is being collected?
4.The fact that the US Army keeps a set of buoys on the ice which continuously monitor ice thickness, temperature and location year round and are normally able to provide more than one year of data?. This is a better and more consistent source of information than that being obtained by the Catlin Survey.
5. The Wattsupwiththat blog also makes the following points :
(a) “All five buoys show water temperatures indicating ice thickness in the range of 3-4 metres. Catlin is attempting to take another 10,000 or so measurements on the shifting, moving ice they are trying to travel across. While that data may be useful in understanding the local behaviour of the ice, it likely will provide little information about long-term ice trends, unless the same measurements are taken on a consistent basis over many years”.
(b) “You can also see in the 2007J graph above that the ice has thickened at least half a metre since March, 2008.” The above point claims that the ice has thickened since March 2008. Is this correct and if so how does this fit with the explorers claims that the ice is getting thinner and why has the BBC not pointed out the limitations of the Catlin Surveys evidence. Can you confirm if you are going to raise these points in future BBC website articles on this subject, as in the interests of balance and understanding of the subject matter these points need to be raised. If you will not be raising these valid points, could you explain why not?
Thank You.
RESPONSE FROM BBC
From: “Jonathan Amos-Online”
Sunday, 22 March, 2009 10:24 PM
Mark
(1) This is another useful dataset that samples the ice when it is at its thickest (re-read the article for why that is important). It will be considered with all the other datasets – in situ, buoys, submarines, satellites, etc – that have been gathered down the years in different parts of the Arctic (again, as the article makes clear). The acquired dataset becomes a very useful tool to calibrate the satellites that are overflying the region now and to constrain the models (again, as stated in the article). For example, the operators of Envisat, ERS-2 and IceSat will want to see if their algorithms are seeing similar thicknesses to the Catlin data. This will give them confidence in interpreting the satellite data from years past and into the future. “No other information on ice thickness like this is expected to be made available to the scientific community in 2009.” More data is normally a good thing.
(2) It is my understanding that there is an intention to repeat the survey.
(3) See point 1 above
(4) I’ve written about these devices previously. You can see a picture of the set-up at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7141635.stm These are deliberately placed on the oldest, thickest blocks of ice. This way you can measure yearly erosion and growth. Try putting one of these buoys on first-year ice and you will need to buy a new one every September.
(5) (a) See point 1 above
(5) (b) Whether the ice is thicker or thinner in any 12 months tells us little. Natural variability over such a timescale can easily hide a negative or positive trend http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/200903_Figure3.png
A suggestion: Ignore what journalists like me write, and ignore the chatter in the blogosphere. Instead, go to a major conference like AGU or EGU and attend the cryosphere sessions. Speak to real scientists who spend their lives studying the Arctic and the Antarctic. Ask them what they think is happening. Go to the source. Hope that helps.
Jonathan.

Mark
Well done in establishing a dialogue with the players, BBC and the expedition itself. I truly look forward to the possibility that this forum that might develop into an intelligent exchange between the parties.
To the guys on the ice … felicitations and well done that you take the time to read Watts. I tip my hat to you for that. And in common with most posters wish you well personally. The (perceived) hyper-reporting of frostbite and physical distress and so on was either over-the-top for dramatic purposes or the concerns to get you guys off the ice were/are real.
I can’t speak for any other poster on this thread as I don’t know any of them (nah, I think I do know one), but please realize that while some of us (that would include me) think what you’re doing is a ‘reality TV’ type show, primarily an attention-grabbing marketing exercise for the insurance guys (which is patently working chuckle, so well done there insurance guys), I hope you think safety first and either get the heck out of there if the reports of frostbite (you know how serious that is fer chrissake) and so on are true … or if they are exaggerations for dramatic effect, well, maybe just report the grinding facts rather than the Hollywood stuff. It makes no sense to this cracker or his medical friends that you are still on the ice if your ‘in extremis’ reports are true.
As I said, look after yourselves and try to report free of agenda. The info isn’t of much importance given so much alternative data, but personal integrity is.
Stay warm (I mean it).
Saludos,
Alec

Most Arctic ice websites are now reporting that maximum ice extent has occurred.
“March 30, 2009
Annual maximum ice extent confirmed
Arctic sea ice extent reached its maximum extent for the year, marking the beginning of the melt season. This year’s maximum was the fifth lowest in the satellite record. NSIDC will release a more detailed analysis of winter sea ice conditions during the second week of April…
…On February 28, Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.14 million square kilometers (5.85 million square miles). The maximum extent was 720,000 square kilometers (278,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average of 15.86 million square kilometers (6.12 million square miles), making it the fifth-lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. The six lowest maximum extents since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years (2004 to 2009).
graph with months on x axis and extent on y axis Figure 2. The graph above shows daily sea ice extent. The solid blue line indicates 2008 to 2009; the dashed green line shows 2006 to 2007 (the record-low summer minimum occurred in 2007); and the solid gray line indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center”
So this means that either it is getting worse, or the trend shows a slow recovery. If this is the 5th lowest out of 6 years of lowest ice, it looks like a recovery is in process.

Latest from the ice -45C
“Plummeting temperatures today took the thermometer off the bottom of the scale, which means the team are currently enduring temperatures lower than -45°C. These extreme temperatures, the coldest experienced by the team so far in this expedition, have the strange physical side effect of causing the team to sound almost drunk as they slur their words and cognitive reactions are noticeably slower.
The relentless cold is utterly exhausting, but despite this, the team crossed the 83°N landmark and covered nearly 14.5km.
“

I look forward to Simon@Catlin’s piece. Particularly his analysis of my “dubious” and “inaccurate” statements – and I have one question to ask of him.
Will the 2009 Arctic summer minimum ice extent be greater or less than the previous two years?
I also look forward to the safe return of the ice team.

All the symptoms mentioned in hengav’s post are the first symptoms of hypothermia. When I worked outdoors, anyone with these symptoms would be brought in to warmth and shelter asap.
Hopefully at least one member of the party, or support team, knows this since people can deteriorate rapidly in these extreme temperatures.

Nice connection to AIG but – why give them MORE ideas of how to get away with pandering to their elitist buddies on Wall Street?