When somebody mentions “Maldives”, the image above of a tropical paradise often springs to mind. Andy Revkin wrote a story recently about the Maldives on his NYT Dot Earth blog that provoked quite an email exchange that I was privy to today. Here are some highlights. First the article:
Maldives Seeks Carbon Neutrality by 2020
By Andrew C. Revkin March 16, 2009, 8:39 am
No spot in the Maldives is more than six feet above sea level. (Click here for a narrated slide show describing this reporter’s first visit to the Maldives, in 1980.)
The Maldives, a strand of coral atolls south of India, is just about the most tenuous country on Earth. No patch of land in the island chain, where the population has risen from 200,000 to 400,000 in the last 25 years, is more than six feet or so above sea level. Even modest projections for a rise in sea level from global warming would increase flooding from storm surges. A higher rise could render hundreds of islands uninhabitable.
That’s why the country has paid particularly close attention, since the early days of discussion of the issue, to scientists who warn of a growing human influence on climate and sea levels. On Sunday, the new president of the island nation, Mohamed Nasheed, prodded the world to get serious about cutting emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases by pledging, in a short piece in England’s Observer newspaper, to make the Maldives the first carbon-neutral country within a decade:
Many politicians’ response to the looming catastrophe, however, beggars belief. Playing a reckless game of chicken with Mother Nature, they prefer to deny, squabble and procrastinate rather than heed the words of those who know best…. Spearheaded by a switch from oil to 100% renewable energy production within a decade, the Maldives will no longer be a net contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.
The announcement was made in the Maldives, but synchronized with the London premiere of ” The Age of Stupid,” a new film on global warming and oil that is a mix of documentary, dramatization and animation. (I haven’t seen it yet, but the description reminds me of the work of Randy Olson, particularly his mock documentary ” Sizzle.”) Officials in the Maldives made the decision after soliciting a report on how to cut fossil fuel use and otherwise trim the country’s climate footprint from Chris Goodall and Mark Lynas, British environmentalists and authors of books on energy and climate.
The proposal recommended a mix of wind turbines, rooftop photovoltaic panels and a backup power plant that burns coconut husks (coconut is a substantial export), among other steps. The estimated cost: about $1.1 billion over 10 years. But the new energy options could pay off in the long run by greatly reducing the country’s reliance on imported oil, the report concluded.
The early concern about global warming by officials in the Maldives was visible as far back as 1988, as shown in this vignette from my first (and long out of print) book on climate, “Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast”:
Perhaps the most straightforward projections of what a greenhouse future will bring in coming decades are those related to rising seas. A foot-and-a-half rise doesn’t sound like much – unless you live in a place that just barely pokes above the ocean. I learned this when I went to Toronto in 1988 to report on the First International Conference on the Changing Atmosphere. Most of the discussions centered on devising strategies to curb emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases from automobiles, power plants, and the burning of tropical forests. Among those in attendance was Hussein Manikfan, who holds the title Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Permanent Representative to the United Nations from the republic of Maldives.
At first it seemed odd to find a representative from the Maldives at the meeting. The country, a sprinkling of 1,190 coral islets in the Indian Ocean southwest of Sri Lanka, has no tropical forests, hardly any automobiles, and little industry beyond the canning of bonito. I spoke for a while with Manikfan. Why was he in Toronto? “To find out how much longer my country will exist,” was his simple reply.
Manikfan is worried because few of the islands have any point that is more than six feet above sea level. Even now, many of the atolls are awash during strong storms. The fear is that Manikfan’s nation – with a tradition of independence dating back thousands of years and its own language and alphabet – might have to be abandoned altogether, as if it were a slowly sinking ship.
Now for the geographically challenged, the map:
Dr. Don Easterbrook responded today to Andy Revkin with this email, cc:d to me
Andy,
I just read your article on sea level alarm in the Maldives. You may not be aware of a study there by Nils-Axel Morner, a Swedish sea level expert (former president of the INQUA Commission of Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution). Attached is photographic evidence by Morner that sea level in the Maldives is not rising relative to the coasts but has indeed fallen! Global sea level has been rising at a rate of about a foot per century but the Maldives are either rising or subject to a local sea level anomaly related to ocean currents and evaporation rates. Thus, the ‘poster child’ of Gore’s sea level alarm is invalid.
Don
The photographs he attached are interesting to say the least, click for larger images:
And soon others were jumping in. Tom Harris quoted a study from Nils-Axel Mörner and provided a plot from Nils-Axel Mörner’s study of sea level using C14 isotope dating.
Harris wrote:
While Andrew does not personally say that sea level rise will swamp the Maldives soon, he implies he agrees with the scenario by including nothing at all to counter the validity of the Maldivian announcement. I suggest Andrew read about Morner’s work and get an expansion of the below misleading piece published right away. You can download (for the next 7 days) one of Dr. Morner’s most recent papers on the topic at http://tinyurl.com/dhz6gk . Note the below graph from that report, especially.
Note also the Feb 2009 report of the SWEDISH SOUTH ASIAN STUDIES NETWORK at Lund U (a large, respected and very old school in Sweden) at http://www.sasnet.lu.se/maldives09.html, in which they conclude, “In June 2004, Prof. Mörner published his research results in an article titled ”The Maldives Project: a future free from sea-level flooding” in the Contemporary South Asia magazine. However, the Maldivian government did not react positively to these findings since they went against the official policy, even though the facts presented seem to be beyond dispute and are confirmed in private by individual Maldivian researchers.” I have submitted a letter to the editor to the NYT on this and I’ll let people know if it is published.
Andy Revkin responded with:
Has anyone on this list assessed this Indian Ocean / Pacific sea level study — http://bit.ly/IndianOceanSeaLevel — which seems to challenge Morner’s analysis?
To which Nils-Axel Mörner replied:
The paper by Church et al. represent desk-work at the computers. Tide gauges have to be treated with care. There are pitfalls both withrespect to stability (compaction, etc) and cyclic patterns (disqualifying regressionline approaches).Our Mildives story is based on multiple criteria: off-shore, on-shore, lagoonal, back-shore, swamp environment.Ditailed morphology (in different environmental settings) is combined with stratigraphy and biological index + numerous C14-dates.Also, our team of researchers is very strong.
Have you heard of the Australian study on 12 Pacific islands, some of them mentioned by Church? They used much more reliable equipment than the others. They claimed an upward trend but this was done by the dishonest use of a linear regression which made use of the temporary depression on all the records caused by the 1988 hurricane. If you look at the actual records in their report (attached) and ignore this temporary event you will find that there was no change for the last sixteen years. The website of the Australian Bureau of meteorology has individual and summarizing reports on this project at
The Geology speaks for itself!As Morner points out, Church,, White, and Hunter applied a number of regional ‘corrections’ to the basic tide gauge record and calculated averages of a large region to arrive at their conclusion that sea level was rising in the Maldives. This is akin to putting one foot in a bed of hot coals and the other in a bucket of ice, averaging the temperature, and concluding that you should be quite comfortable! Putting aside the arguments around tide gauge levels, the geologic evidence appears to be indisputable and indicates conclusively that the sea levels at the sites shown in Morners paper cannot be submerging. You’re a smart guy–look at the geologic evidence in the two attached photos and judge for yourself.Figure 1 shows a post-1970 wave-cut notch eroded into the pre-1970 shore platform. You cannot do that with a submerging coastline. (The platform should be under water if the island is submerging, not being eroded at a lower level). This is a classic example of an emergent shoreline, the kind you can see in any geologic textbook.Figure 2 shows the present high tide line, the 1970 shoreline, and a pre-1970 shoreline. If the island has been submerging since 1970, as contended by Church,, White, and Hunter, the present high tide line should be above the 1970 shoreline, not below it!Any regional analysis of average sea level changes cannot trump the geologic evidence at the two sites shown. The geologic evidence is site specific, just like each foot in the coals and ice bucket. The average is meaningless.
So it boils down to this: Who would you rather believe? People doing studies on-site and gathering photographic evidence that shows clear geologic actions of lowered sea levels on the islands, or somebody sitting in an office analyzing and doing regressions on tide gauge data when they’ve never even done and checking on the quality control of the gauges themselves? Here’s one from Tasmania from this CSIRO report:
I’m sure that old algae covered dock is stable enough to use for “calibration”. Surely no possibility of shifting, or sinking there.
Here’s a somewhat better tide gauge placement of a gauge in the Adriatic sea.
The description reads:
The tide gauge Luka Koper is located in northern part of Adriatic in Koper bay at the industrial pier grounded to the bottom with piles.
Here’s one in Alaska:
Here’s another, at Cape Ferguson in Australia, from BOM:
IMHO The idea that a dock (or piling) is a long term stable measurement platform is simply ludicrous. Piles sink, structures decay, boats whack them, pounding wave action loosens their grip. One feature missing from all these old style tide gauges is any way to reference the long term level of the gauge itself. In the era of GPS we can start doing this, but in the years past, how much is from simple sinking of the pilings over time? When you are looking for millimeters per year, such things become significant.
Gee, and I thought weather station measurement issues were bad. Scientists really do need to get out more. Perhaps the next IPCC conference can be in the Maldives instead of Bali. I volunteer to run beach tours to show water level notches. – Anthony
It is astonishing that an apparently well done, on site study is totally ignored in the media, and in the general AGW community as if it did not exist. Were it not for the internet and the video it would be unknown outside a very small community.
I find it particularly disturbing that the “marker tree” was apparently intentionally knocked down to cover up the conflict between theory and reality.
I suppose that sort of dishonest “science” has been going on as long as humans have been around. (eg. piltdown man)
Larry
Thank you for yet more photograpic evidence. This, together with the photograph from “The Isle of The Dead” in Tasmania, blogged inside the last few days, is great for showing to any friends or family that believe in AGW.
Three comments, if you please:
1.: “rather than heed the words of those who know best”
Is he referring to (a) Mohamed Nasheed, (b) Andrew Revkin, (c) Al Gore,
(d) some other great scientist?
2.: There is also a series of great video with Nils-Axel Mörner and others
http://www.globalwarminghoax.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.30
3.: If the Maldives are doomed why spend $1.1 billion on the place. Abandon the islands. Move to higher ground. Ans.: They won’t get many $$ if they ask for any other reason. And they know better than anyone they are not sinking! What a load!
I suggest Andrew read about Morner’s work and get an expansion of the below misleading piece published right away.
Shome mishtake here surely? :o)
There’s a good interview with Morner here:
http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen7/MornerEng.html
“This tree, which I showed in the documentary, is interesting. This is a prison island, and when peo-ple left the island, from the ’50s, it was a marker for them, when they saw this tree alone out there, they said, “Ah, freedom!” They were allowed back. And there have been writings and talks about this. I knew that this tree was in that terrible position already in the 1950s. So the slightest rise, and it would have been gone. I used it in my writings and for television. You know what happened? There came an Australian sea-level team, which was for the IPCC and against me. Then the stu-dents pulled down the tree by hand! They destroyed the evidence. What kind of people are those? And we came to launch this film, “Doomsday Called Off,” right after, and the tree was still green. And I heard from the locals that they had seen the people who had pulled it down. So I put it up again, by hand, and made my TV program. I haven’t told anybody else, but this was the story.”
From this link http://www.net-comber.com/worldarea.html
I took the figure for total sea area of 139,434,000 square miles.
Using simple arithmetic aided by my on board calculator
I estimate that at least 1047.3 cubic miles of land supported
ice must melt each year until 2100 to give a 1 meter level rise
of all the worlds oceans. This figure does not include spillover
onto low ground less than 1 meter above present sea level.
Therefore a realistic figure of 1050 cubic miles of ice for the
next 91 years might, just might, raise sea levels by 1 meter.
I am unable to find any information about current melt rates
that come anywhere near that figure.
Thanks! It’s very sad to see and read about the dishonesty of scientists.
REPLY: I don’t know that “dishonesty” is the correct word, I often see indifference and/or incompetence that builds up their own confirmation bias. – Anthony
The globe part of the map is seriously geographically challenged. In small letters It places the “Republic of Maldives” south west of India (correct), but then there is a big label “Maldives” placing it just off the coast of Sumatra ?!? This should be fixed.
So now we wait for Andy Revkin to respond with hard evidence to support his view and contradict the evidence from Nils-Axel Mörner, Dr. Vincent Gray and Don Easterbrook. How long do we wait? That’s the question? Do I hold my breath?
Oh, in case Andy Revkin does not accept that the Maldives could be rising, the Swedes do accept the evidence that the land can bounce. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3721/is_199905/ai_n8844371
Work it out. It is quite straight forward. You will need to melt
at least 1050 cubic miles (4378.5 cubic kilometers) of ice each
year for the next 91 years to raise global sea levels by 1 meter.
No indication that current melts even approach that figure.
Ooops… apologies. I thought spam filter had eaten my post.
Do we know the name of the scientific/environmental vandals who destroyed the tree?
I personally believe that these names should go down in infamy.
hotrod (23:02:03) wrote: “It is astonishing that an apparently well done, on site study is totally ignored in the media, and in the general AGW community as if it did not exist. Were it not for the internet and the video it would be unknown outside a very small community.”
A two-edged sword, hotrod. “Were it not for the internet and the video” those who prosper from AGW alarmism may never have got the oxygen necessary to have even got their balloon off the ground…
And what’s with the map? The rectangle and dot seem to point to the islands west of Sumatra. The line above the map says: Now for the geographically challenged, the map:
It should say, “A map by someone geographically challenged.”
However, the correct area is shown SW of India.
REPLY: The map is from the USGS, but the pointer somehow got put in wrong, I’ve put in a corrected map in it’s place. Thanks for the note. – Anthony
The best way the Maldives could reduce their contribution to increased CO2 in the atmosphere would be to close all the tourist resorts on their islands.
All those tourists flying in must be contributing far more CO2 to the problem than the locals are. That’s assuming CO2 is the problem.
Will Revkin retract and correct his story due to inaccuracies as he asked George Will to do, or will he ignore the science?
Revkin has got a tiger by the tail.
Some months ago the BBC ran an article about parts of Venice which were sinking under water. The article was accompanied by photos of three Italian men playing cards in a room with the water coming up to their waistlines.
You guessed it. It was blamed on climate change, not the soft clay that Venice was built on.
There is of course a video of Morner talking about this that should have been included with the article.
“Now for the geographically challenged, the map: ”
Uh, the added label for the Maldives is pretty clearly pointing to the NW corner of Sumatra. That’s a hell of a long ways from its intended target.
I first heard of Morner’s work several years ago and would be surprised if Revkin was not aware of it.
He gets a lot of readers, most of whom do not appear to be skeptics. I hope this gets a few to think twice about the propaganda that is sold as science and about the motivations of politicians such as those in the Maldives.
As you were Anthony, the quote from Harris is out of context from the Revkin article quote. Still makes it look like the ‘below misleading piece’ refers to Morners linked work though.
Slowjoe (23:44:10) :
Do we know the name of the scientific/environmental vandals who destroyed the tree?
A job for an investigative journalist I guess. It shouldn’t be impossible to find out which Australian environmental research groups went on a field trip to the Maldives that year. Probably more than one though, it’s a nice place for a jolly.
Being an Australian, I’m none too happy with those Aussie climate fascists pulling down mangroves…
In Australia the Greenies have changed laws so as to prosecute people for damaging mangroves….. Yet here are these so called climate scientists from Australia knocking mangroves down because it happens to show an “inconvenient Truth” for them.
Aron…..
“You guessed it. It was blamed on climate change, not the soft clay that Venice was built on.”
Not to mention the industrial complexes in nearby Marghera/Mestre pumping out millions of gallons of fresh water from under Venice for many years.
Now bizarrely, the lagoon is at its lowest level for at least a decade and emergency boats/Ambulances/fire engines etc have to take special deeper canal routes to avoid being grounded.
My 8 year old daughter brought a book home from school this week, about Tuvalu going under. Do you suppose the same applies there, i.e. reality does not match the story?
I suppose it was inevitable that a story on the Maldives would follow the sea level question of undersea volcanoes.
The point is basically that AGW is a fraud, Sea level rise (apart from the standard 1mm/year rise since who knows when) is a fraud and the next story will be on Tuvalu.
Hi!
I am a long time follower of your blog. I am also a scientist active in a field neighboring that of prof Mörner. (Rock Mechanics).
Unfortunately Prof Mörner is not a scientist whos work should be taken seriously. He has been criticized publicly for having taught courses in Dowsing at the university. His work is constantly monitored by a local organization of sceptics. He has an absolute lack of scientific method and anything he is associated with is immediately tainted.
Those that speak or read swedish fill find this collection of articles interesting:
http://www.vof.se/search.php?f=1&l=1&n=1&m=1&a=1&query=m%F6rner
Even James Randi has taken notice of him apparently.
A link for those who want to know more about Mörners side activities:
http://scienceblogs.com/aardvarchaeology/2008/03/lind_morner_still_mucking_arou.php
There was an alarmist climate change documentary on French TV a short while back, focused on the Maldives. However they had a really difficult time finding anyone there that was actually worried about sea-level rise: Some even said it was just a government scam to get international aid. The narrator then made a mocking comment about the people hating the government so much they disbelieve everything the government tells them. The oddest bit was when the TV crew went out on a boat with a guy who said he was visiting an island that had just appeared. It seems new islands appear all the time. This fact didn’t stop the commentator making an apocalyptic end message though – while the guy was walking across this new island.
On September 12, 2008, the International Herald Tribune published my letter to the editor:
“A self-inflicted problem
In “Climate change: With millions under threat, inaction is unethical” (Views, Sept. 10) the president of the Maldives, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, contends that the Maldives are threatened by climate change, yet he fails to acknowledge that coral islands have survived during a rise in sea levels of 120 meters since the last ice age.
Under natural conditions, coral is perfectly able to grow upwards, keeping pace with any relative rise in sea levels.
If someone has to be blamed for the eventual demise of any of the Pacific or Indian Ocean coral islands, it is the inhabitants themselves. They are the ones who are destroying the natural coral habitat by creating roads and buildings, allowing bad fishing practices and many forms of pollution. With dead coral, these islands have no natural mechanism to keep them above water. The inconvenient truth is that these islands are not sustainable under permanent human inhabitation.”
As a sea surveyor I have seen all sorts of tide gauges and have some idea of how they’re established. Essentially, a tide gauge is linked to the stable local land levelling datum which In turn was established by long-term tidal observations from the stable sea level (!). This doesn’t matter for the average tide gauge which is there to allow mariners to navigate safely, but it does mean there are very few gauges anywhere in the world that are much use for long-term high-precision sea level studies.
Additionally, while it is well known that parts of Sweden, for instance, have risen some eight metres (25 feet) in the last 18,000 years due to isostatic rebound from the melting of a couple of miles of ice, there seems little realisation that the resulting 120m rise in sea levels has placed an additional 120 tons of water on every square metre of ocean bed, pulling down the adjacent coastlines on which the tide gauges sit and on whose assumed levels they are based. Truly, measuring air temperatures accurately is chicken feed compared to studying historical sea levels to accuracies better than an inch or so.
The Maldives Tree
Anthony, I have a completely open mind on sea level rises or falls in the Maldives or in the rest of the world. I know your web is completely transparent and open to all input. I recall reading this some time ago from a Maldives local and it grabbed my attention as to its authenticity and I believe all your readers should be aware of it. It is item 26 from Shaig in the following URL:
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=118
http://www.themaldives.com/map/maldives-map.asp
The Maldive Islands or the Pearls of the Indian Ocean, as it is popularly known, are situated in the South West of Sri Lanka, on the equator. The numerous coral reef islands, 1,190 in total , form an archipelago of 26 major atolls ( groups of neighbouring coral islands). The country stretches 820 km north to south and 120 km east to west. The climate is generally warm and humid. Sun shines all year through with average temperature around 29 – 32 degrees Celsius.
Emmmm, exactly which of these atolls/corral islands are actually supposed to be sinking? Survey cite needed.
Apparently the capital, Male`, was untouched by the 2004 tsunami due to it being defended by a sea wall. I wonder when it was built?
I recall an episode of Gilligan’s Island where the Professor was concerned about their island sinking because a marker pole he had in the lagoon was getting covered by more water. They all went into a panic about the island sinking. The end result was however, that Gilligan was putting the marker pole into deeper and deeper water as it held the crab pots. So all it was, was the marker moving and not the water rising.
Maybe the AGW alarmists are getting their science from Gilligan’s Island? Brings a smile to my face equating the “Professor” with Hanson.
>The point is basically that AGW is a fraud, Sea level rise (apart from the standard 1mm/year rise since who knows when) is a fraud and the next story will be on Tuvalu.
The trend is 3.2mm/year. That’s a fact in observational data collected by satellite data and matched by tidal gauges.
Here what was previously written by a local from the Maldive’s in response to the nonsense about the lone tree. ~snip~
>Reading the thread after 6 months, I still feel compelled to comment on this now infamous tree.
I’m a Maldivian and I consider myself a student of climate science. I have great respect for Prof Morner, but I will have to question his ’scientific methods’ especially those used in the ‘Maldives Sea Level Project’.
On the issue of the tree, Morner has provided false facts to the world. The island the tree is located is called Viligilli and is next (immediately west) to the Nation’s Capital Male’ (see on googleearth). The tree was located on the southeast corner of the island along part of a stable rocky oceanward coastline. The island WAS (not ‘is’ as stated by Morner) a prison island until 1973. There are no records that prisoners cried out “Ah, freedom!” when they saw the one tree. However, some did refer to an entire bulge on the southeast corner of the island, which is the only such area on an otherwise a smooth coastline. The tree is called ironwood (Pemphis acidula). It’s known for its resilience against salt and is usually the dominant species in very high wave energy and salt spray zones. Having traveled to over 600 islands in Maldives I have witnessed a number of such one ‘tree’s’. The tree in question simply has withstood erosion in the last 10 or so years while weaker trees around it fell. Aerial photographs of 1968/1969, 1998 and 2004 shows that the area is relatively stable with occasional erosion. There have been a number of trees in this specific area of the island like the one in question which have remain separated from the island. It is part of the erosion process. The tree most likely was there 50 years ago but it certainly was not alone as it is now. It is these kinds of adhoc observation based conclusions rather than rigorous assessments which make me question the findings of Morner.
On the question of naughty Australian Scientists and schoolies, I think this just an emotional view of Morner. This island has now become an inhabited island and one of the most frequently visited ‘picnic islands’ for Male’ residents. There are enough naughty boys to cut down such a tree for any reason. It is absurd to blame responsible scientists in the field, without a shred of decent evidence, even due to uncontrolled emotions.
“Mac (00:00:43) :
Will Revkin retract and correct his story due to inaccuracies as he asked George Will to do, or will he ignore the science?”
It seems to me that we need to find and post ways to increase and maintain the pressure on him to do exactly that. This could be a major point, and there are still press outlets and reporters that love a good fight, where someone, doesn’t matter who, is going to suffer an embarassment.
If Revkin were forced by empirical data to concede…that would be huge, and could well be a bell that can’t be unrung.
JimB
Tha main problem Venice (la Serenissima) has had to cope with was sediments carried by rivers. So, many centuries ago, they decided to divert most of the rivers going directly to the lagoon with Km an Km of channels taking river waters outside the lagoon. Then in the XX century, extraction of sand and stones from the river beds, massive water and natural gas pumping out, put all the coastal plain of the Northern Adriatic under pressure.
In the last dececades all that activities were put under strict controll and land is now sinking at a more natural pace.
Back to the Maldives, I wish to remind you that the Maldives survived during the fast rising sea level of the early Olocene, when water level rose by centimetres per year and not by millimetres like today. They are made of living matter!
hotrod (23:02:03) :
“I suppose that sort of dishonest “science” has been going on as long as humans have been around. (eg. piltdown man)”
Spelling correction:
“Piltdown Mann”
For those interested, I did a post on Global Sea Levels and Sea Levels for the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans back in December.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/sea-level-data-global-and-indian.html
Here are few updates and some additional graphs of Sea Level data from the University of Colorado.
The Global sea level rise has flattened considerably since mid-2005:
http://s5.tinypic.com/24wqyvs.jpg
The Indian Ocean sea level continues to rise:
http://s5.tinypic.com/2njlgzc.jpg
The Maldives sea level was relatively flat until 2006:
http://s5.tinypic.com/15h0pxg.jpg
But here’s a curiosity. If you enter the Maldives coordinates (3N, 73E), the smoothed curve is very similar to the Maldives data, with the exception of the peak after the 1997/98 El Nino.
http://s5.tinypic.com/259zx9t.jpg
And here’s the Indonesian Throughflow sea level, which should be representative of the Pacific Warm Pool.
http://s5.tinypic.com/28jfwvd.jpg
This site is troubling, to say the least. I’ve been drinking the Al Gore Kool-Aid ever since it hit the grocery store shelves. Mighty tasty!
Then, along comes this crazy dude with all his charts and photos ‘n stuff.
What’s a liberal to do?
Keep reading, I suppose, but thanks a lot for adding just a little more confusion to an already confusing world…
King of Cool
Fair comment but people should also look at comment 28.
Warwick Hughes posts here so perhaps he can tell us if he received the photos he requested or any other information either way.
TonyB
King of Cool 1 41 27
I have done some more research on the comment you posted re Morner and the rebuttal of Morners data in the link 26 you provided from someone called Shaig.
The name Shaig might be a common one, but I suspect this relates to the blogger to whom you linked. His comment that “I consider myself a student of climate science’ is somewhat down playing his activities.
Here is his phd profile linking to his papers.
http://www.jcu.edu.au/ees/staff/postgrad/JCUDEV_014807.html
This is a background paper he prepared for the Maldives Govt on sea levels
http://74.125.77.132/search?q=cache:YBYq6duKCfsJ:www.maldivespartnershipforum.gov.mv/2008/3-Environment%2520FINAL.pdf+shaig+maldives&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
This is the full report for the Maldives Govt called ‘ National adaptation program of action’ in which he is cited as an author.
http://env.rol.net.mv/docs/Reports/National%20Adaptation%20Programme%20of%20Action%20-%20Maldives/NAPA_Maldives_optimised.pdf
He is hardly the disinterested partner that his post suggests. What his motives are I do not know, but I repeat that it would be instructive to see if Warwich Hughes received any further information from someone who appears to have his own reasons for saying the things he does.
Tonyb
A bit of background info about the Maldive from someone who knows them personally – I’ve been visiting them regularly since 1999.
The Maldives is a strictly Islamic country. If you’re a tourist (or anybody else, for that matter), you’re not allowed to bring in any alcohol at all – including duty-free purchases. Furthermore, it is forbidden to bring in Bibles or any other Christian artefacts or images, of whatever sort.
As Norm has pointed out, there are over 1,000 islands – but only about 80 are designated as “tourist” islands. These islands have a somewhat curious status, with alcohol being freely (and legally) available.
The Maldives are a favourite, up-market destination for honeymooners, attracted (like the rest of us) by their great beauty – small, isolated, Robinson Crusoe islands with their palm trees and their powder-white coral sands, set in deep blue lagoons. They really are idyllic, with their emphasis on “no news, no shoes”.
Not much to do, mind you, except to go snorkelling or diving during the day, to watch the myriad of exotic fish swimming in the coral reefs. Goodness knows what the honeymooners find to do 🙂
The coral reefs were devastated by El Nino in 1998. But since then they’ve been making a slow but sure recovery – every time I visit there is noticeably more and more colour to be seen underwater. But still large areas of the reefs where the predominant colour is grey. The islands are all very low lying – none of them being much more than 1 meter (that’s about 3 foot for the metrically-challenged) above sea level. I appreciate this is hardly a very scientific observation, but personally I have seen no signs whatsoever of the sea-level rising in all of the 10 years I’ve been visiting. They certainly don’t give me the impression they’re about to be overwhelmed by the sea any time soon.
Richard 111
“You will need to melt at least 1050 cubic miles (4378.5 cubic kilometers) of ice each year for the next 91 years to raise global sea levels by 1 meter.”
The sea level rise predicted by the alarmists combines land ice melt with the thermal expansion of water. I don’t know how they calculate this, but as it appears that the deep ocean water maintains a constant temperature, and only the near surface waters would be subject to thermal expansion, they probably greatly over-estimate this factor.
Okay, this guy is worried about sea-level rise where ther reverse is taking place? Hey, if the Maldives eliminate their need for oil, great–but how much heavy industry could there be in a place that’s 6 feet above water? My only bitch here is that the author procededs from the false premise that man-made CO2 is going to melt the ice caps and kill us all.
Earth is not Venus–look at a map.
Steve Schapel (00:44:37) :
My 8 year old daughter brought a book home from school this week, about Tuvalu going under. Do you suppose the same applies there, i.e. reality does not match the story?
Indeed, Dr Vincent Gray wrote a paper on this in ’06 called SNOW JOB ON TUVALU.
It appears a tide gauge showed a miniscule increase in sea level from ’77 to ’95 of about 1.26mm, then a drop of 3mm from ’95 to ’99. After that, “Greenpeace employed Dr John Hunter. a climatologist of the University of Tasmania, who obligingly “adjusted” the Tuvalu readings upwards to comply with changes in ENSO and those found for the island of Hawaii and, miraculously, he found a sea level rise of “around” 1.2 mm a year which, also miraculously, agrees with the IPCC global figure.”
That is AGW “science” for you. If they don’t like the data, they simply “adjust” them until they conform to Warmist ideology, which then gets trumpeted worldwide as “Climate Catastrophe”.
He (Morner) has been criticized publicly for having taught courses in Dowsing at the university.
You know, I really take issue when someone’s work is discredited because of their beliefs or lifestyle.
If you have a problem with dowsing or someone’s religion then criticise that directly instead using that to discredit their thorough work in another subject. Dowsing is one thing, sea levels are another. I would not discredit someone’s work on climatology or meteorology just because they believed in creationism (Roy Spencer). It’s two different things. You can be 100% right about one thing while being wrong about another.
The Jason-1 satellite measurements show that the Indian Ocean is the only ocean basin with any appreciable sea level rise since Jason’s operations began.
The North Atlantic and the Mediterrian are falling and the North Pacific, South Pacific and the South Atlantic are basically flat.
The Indian Ocean seems to get loaded up by El Ninos and is now also falling after a few years of mostly La Nina conditions.
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/altimetry-data-and-images/index.html
Wow. Rarely have I seen a claim this clearly refuted. Bet you won’t see anything on CNN, though. Wonder if Revkin will have the decency to print a “correction.”
Once again, integration of geology & climate science is key to getting the answer right. How many examples of that have we seen!
The interplay between thermal subsidence / uplift & reef building is certainly key to understanding the problem.
For more on the geology:
http://books.google.com/books?id=NDtCISiFS8IC&pg=PA327&lpg=PA327&dq=maldives+tectonics&source=bl&ots=peK_VtwtSa&sig=66Sfsx_AxQ7kAouxVckiXqeG6hU&hl=en&ei=BZfDSe-YEpKmsAPQzJDtBg&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=2&ct=result
One interesting aspect is of coral atolls is that coral only grows underwater.
If sea levels are steadily rising and have been for the entire holocene (as conventional wisdom states) there shouldn’t be any coral atolls anywhere in the world above water.
The fact there are many hundreds of coral atolls above sea level is rather compelling evidence that sea levels must have been higher than at present in fairly recent times and sea levels then fell significantly.
I don’t have an answer to this puzzle, but maybe someone else could shed light on it.
“One feature missing from all these old style tide gauges is any way to reference the gauge itself.”
On U.S. tide gauges the gauge is referenced to the tide staff ( the graduated staff in the photos, especially evident in the Anchorage gauge) and then the staff is referenced to a series of bench marks on the shore through standard surveying procedures. This detects any settling of the structure on which the gauge and staff are mounted. Uniform local subsidence will not be detected of course.
I greatly enjoy your blog. Keep up the good work.
Seems to me the picture shows they’ve got the solution whatever happens – houses on stilts.
Funny that the guy who’s scientific methods are being criticized is the one who relies on site visits and documented geological markers whereas the scientists who get a free pass rely on iffy tide gauges and stats off-site. So nobody questions your methods if your conclusion reflects what reviewers expect to see. Just as well they aren’t designing aircraft or bridges.
My understanding is that many, if not all, volcanic islands sink into the sea as they move away from the hotspot that created them. The Hawaiian Islands are an example of this.
Roger Carr (23:44:18) said :
A two-edged sword, hotrod. “Were it not for the internet and the video” those who prosper from AGW alarmism may never have got the oxygen necessary to have even got their balloon off the ground…
Roger may have identified the underlying problem with AGW acolytes; they’re using oxygen to try to get their balloon off the ground.
And I’m sure that Roger doesn’t mean “oxygen” in the sense of combustion to raise a hot-air balloon, since that would mean the dreaded CO2. I THINK THEY JUST GOT THE WRONG GAS.
I was going to suggest Helium, but that is usually produced as a by-product of oil & gas production (and ALWAYS produced using the same techniques, e.g in the Four Corners region).
So I guess we’re left with H2, ideally produced from rain-water collected in hollowed-out gourds by folks in loin-cloths and recycled tire sandals, and broken down by electrolysis powered by windmills made with conductive vines. Alternately, bicycle generators. KEEP PEDALLING! [a very fit human can sustain about 125W for maybe an hour. ]
Voila, the Hindenburg. NO SMOKING, you guys, not even if it’s Medical Grade.
Hell with the tree, I’d like to know the name of the scientist or tourist or Male’ boy who maliciously cut a new erosion mark on that rock platform. Now that is down low!
Or Queen’s pool! Who took the cork outa her pool! Find the malicious little runt! Maybe they need a juvenile fail down there!
jail, I meant jail
Now where are my cheater glasses?
Michael Spencer (03:46:37) :
This site is troubling, to say the least. I’ve been drinking the Al Gore Kool-Aid ever since it hit the grocery store shelves. Mighty tasty!
Then, along comes this crazy dude with all his charts and photos ‘n stuff.
What’s a liberal to do?
Keep reading, I suppose, but thanks a lot for adding just a little more confusion to an already confusing world…
Welcome to the Dark Side, heh-heh-heh. Seriously, though, there are plenty of liberal types here who used to believe the AGW nonsense, until we started looking into it. You will find that the more you learn, the more skeptical you will become, which can put you in a rather difficult and uncomfortable position with “fellow” liberal types/Democrats. Do not expect any sympathy or understanding from them – you will be viewed as a kook and a traitor, and someone who “doesn’t care about the earth”.
You might want to check out Lucy Skywalker’s site for some good basic info, and her Primer. She also started out as an AGW believer.
Off topic, but re WEATHER STATIONS: this new interactive map from BOM here in Australia, showing the Australian Reference Climate Station network:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/reference.shtml
Click on the dots to see pictures of the actual stations.
Got to admit we do it well..
LK
On an islet next to the airport at Male, they have built an entire city six feet above sea level. The only problem is that no one wants to live there.
Here is an article from January 2008:
http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB119999940930681887.html
“On paper, it’s a tropical paradise. Capable of housing as many as 150,000 of the nation’s 369,000 residents, Hulhumalé has a mosque, a school, a small office building and several hundred apartments. Planners even imported cows — the only ones in the Maldives — to make fertilizer.
“According to the master plan, there will also be an arts center, a luxury hotel and marina, a leafy civic district and a big hospital to complement the Maldives’ famous beachside bungalows and fancy resorts. The Muslim nation’s plans even include an alcohol-free entertainment zone with a “Rard Rock Café.”
“But now Maldives officials are facing an uneasy truth: Just because you build it doesn’t mean that people will come. Much of the island remains an empty expanse of gravel lots and wan palm trees despite government efforts to relocate several thousand people here from Malé, the island capital just a couple of miles away.”
This is a great article! I have wondered for a long time about the Maldives and the rising ocean levels ever since I read Thor Hyerdal’s book “The Malidive Mystery.” That would surely be the first country to go “glub glub” if sea level is on the upswing. The evidence that sea level is actually diminishing is amazing.
So all this means that my plan for getting therapy to cure my scepticism on the Maldives is canceled!
In case it sinks down we could accomodate all Maldives inhabitans in our backyard. That is non sense, just the preach of an escathological ,milleniarist , ¨end of the world¨ illuminated by Gaia prophet, a fool follower of a new pantheistic religion, who, like others clerics of invented cults, seek only to profit themselves, and they are succesful because in every society there are always naive, candid people, and also of the less candid kind, who profit after the one who profits, and who convince, their newly acquired selfindulging leader, of the truth of his insane theories, with a positive feedback which inflates his monumental ego through the well known phenomena of the “green house effect”
Anthony and fellow posters,
I’m a disabled veteran witha long career in EOD in the Navy. As part of my post service rehabilitation, I’ve been going back to school. I thoroughly enjoyed oceanography, but know their just isn’t enough time nor job opportunites for me in that field of study.
I’m taking a course in geology which starts in just 2 weeks. One of the course books is a bright red book on global warming and the IPCC. I’m shuddering as I enjoy basic science, but have no idea how I’m going to survive this as a skeptic. The environment at this college is one of open advocacy, no questions asked and worse, not to be asked or challenged. I find it amazing that students are expected to act as adults, but in fact are treated as if they are children….ugghhhh.
I know this is OT, but there is an awful lot of geology used, particularly in the referenced pieces inthe above article.
Two subjects.
Dr. Morner’s work was slagged by some people posting a year ago on Warwick Hughes’s site. Is there any foundation for doubting any of Morner’s writings about sea levels on the Maldives?
Regarding “thermal expansion” of the oceans, I googled something like “sea water density” and at one site found where I cold fill in salt content and temperature and density correction. I’ll list a few data points for 3% salt content, which I believe to be a good ballpark estimate:
°C delta density
0 -0.133
2 -0.033
4 -0.001
6 -0.033
8 -0.125
10 -0.274
12 -0.477
14 -1.032
Ian M (06:58:24) : Your comment is awaiting moderation
Two subjects.
Dr. Morner’s work was slagged by some people posting a year ago on Warwick Hughes’s site. Is there any foundation for doubting any of Morner’s writings about sea levels on the Maldives?
Regarding “thermal expansion” of the oceans, I googled something like “sea water density” and at one site found where I cold fill in salt content and temperature and density correction. I’ll list a few data points for 3% salt content, which I believe to be a good ballpark estimate:
°C delta density
0 -0.133
2 -0.033
4 -0.001
6 -0.033
8 -0.125
10 -0.274
12 -0.477
14 -1.032
The anti-dock chiding at the end of the article seems unsupported by the photos. It looks like there are docks next to the gauges but the gauge is not greatly dependent upon the dock. Most of the tide gauge photos show what looks like a vertical steel column. It looks like the gauge is a rigid vertical structure which is probably well anchored at its base, with various types of bracing to reduce horizontal stress.
REPLY: My point is that pilings in general aren’t stable platforms, steel or wood. They could either sink or rise. Wave action might eventually work wood pilings loose causing them to wobble a bit in the holes. – Anthony
My posting went out before I was finished. Damned Enter key!
Two subjects.
Dr. Morner’s work was slagged by some people posting a year ago on Warwick Hughes’s site. Is there any foundation for doubting any of Morner’s writings about sea levels on the Maldives?
Regarding “thermal expansion” of the oceans, I googled something like “sea water density” and at one site found where I could fill in salt content and temperature and density correction. I’ll list a few data points for 3% salt content, which I believe to be a good ballpark estimate:
°C delta density
0 -0.133
2 -0.033
4 -0.001
6 -0.033
8 -0.125
10 -0.274
12 -0.477
14 -1.032
For density kg/cu m, add 1000 to the above numbers.
If we take a 500m column of water (upper level of ocean) at 0° and heat it to 8°C (a huge jump), I calculate that the depth of the column would increase by…..wait for it…..4 millimeters. If the temperature went from 4° to 8°, the height would actually .
If my calculations are correct (and please correct me if I am wrong), talk of “thermal expansion” doesn’t amount to a hill of beans.
Ian
Hi… As Earth continues under a climate lowstand phase, as long as it lasts, sea levels won’t flood the continental area over the current 7% of area flooded. In a comparison between sea levels through geological timescale and concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide I observed that the increases of the atmospheric CO2 concentration go on a par with the cycles of transgressions and regressions, but always after increases of the tropospheric temperature, which made me speculate on sea levels as the unavoidable cause of risings of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. The latter is true given that other scientists have found the connection between oceans temperature and release of CO2 from the oceans to the atmosphere. Through a phase of transgression, i.e. when a maximum area of continents is flooded, the concentration of CO2 increases; while through a phase of regression, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere decreases. Other scientists have found that the oceans heat up precisely during transgression phases and cools down during regression phases. Well, we are just now in the lowstand of a regression phase. Anyway, the cycles of transgressions have been diminishing through geological eras, so the possibility on catastrophic floods of continental areas, islands, etc. is almost zero. The last assertion obeys to the fact that oceans are now covering more extensive Earth’s surface than they were 1500 million years ago, which let us go back to revise old theories, like that one on an expanding Earth, for example.
I am having trouble getting my posting through correctly! In my item regarding sea water density, the final word in the penultimate sentence should end in the word “decrease”. I tried to put the word in “carret” marks (arrowheads) and the word disappeared in transmission.
Ian
Oops! A small correction on “Earth’s surface than they were 1500 million years ago…”. It should have say: “Earth’s surface than they were 150 million years ago…”
Here’s an interesting fact about the Maldives. The corals that make up the atoll reefs and islands rise from a submarine ridge that is nearly 400m (1300ft) below sea level.
Corals must live in brightly lit waters that are fully penetrated by the sun’s rays which effectively restricts the most luxuriant coral reef growth to depths rarely exceeding 37m (120ft).
At some stage then the sea level in which the Maldives began to grow must have been almost 1200 ft lower than it is today, yet the islands have continued to grow and survive whilst the sea level rose.
I notice that, on the page headed “The Maldives 2,” the lower photo’s caption concludes with “… (4) older +60 cm sea level.” But I see no person wearing #4 T-shirt.
=========
Rikard Gothäll (01:10:04) wrote:
“A link for those who want to know more about Mörners side activities:
http://scienceblogs.com/aardvarchaeology/2008/03/lind_morner_still_mucking_arou.php “
A quote from the article linked to (by a member of a skeptics group) stated:
“Future plans include magnetometry mapping. Mörner is quoted as believing that this technique will allow the pair to map individual ancient footprints in the subsoil, because in his opinion, magnetometry maps “compressed earth”.”
“Individual footprints” sounds pretty wacky, because it’s hard to see how a single one could compress the earth noticeably. I wonder if perhaps Mörner was actually looking for footpaths. It stands to reason that the earth beneath them would be compressed. I suspect that looking for compressed-earth footpaths with ground penetrating radar is a standard practice in archaeology.
Bruce Cobb:
Welcome to the Dark Side, heh-heh-heh. Seriously, though, there are plenty of liberal types here who used to believe the AGW nonsense, until we started looking into it.
Those would be the Classical Liberals such as myself, who base their thinking on post-Enlightenment values: taking all evidence into account, or as much as possible, particularly in a truely scientific way, as a matter of personal responsibility if not actual “self”, as opposed to simply falling prey to groupthink memes or what are essentially only low-brow advertising campaigns designed to influence people on sub-rational bases for purposes other than understanding things and then forming the best possibly policies with a view to the well-being of all people.
I’ve gotten burned enough in the past by Faux Liberals – who have usurped the term “liberal” for themselves while attempting to falsely convey the idea that the term still means what the “liberal” in “Classical Liberal” means – that once I define who they are and recognize the tell tale indicators of how they operate [anecdote, big lie, fear, on authority, begging the question, not checking the thermometers, etc.] I don’t believe a thing they say without a lot of further proof.
Amazingly often, what they claim as true even turns out to be the direct opposite of the truth – which to me indicates that they have some very severe problem with Reality, which then leads them to the opposite of what Reality says/is. Not to mention the “control for the sake of control or personal aggrandizement” types, whose control or narcissistic need trumps Reality in nearly every instance. I know some of these various kinds personally, and long term.
PS: A way to check out what Mörner actually said would be for someone to translate the Swedish article cited in the link above, namely:
http://www.ystadallehanda.se/article/20080327/SIMRISHAMN/141727381/1365
Well, I guess it’ll have to be someone who speaks it, because I used a translator, and got this wonderful mess:
IfOf, Ifs, {Om} oneones, a, {ett} couple{par} weekly{veckor} ska fornminnet soon{strax} north{norr} ifof, ifs, {om} Vitemölla “röntgas”. Geologidocent Nils- AxisShoulder, Axle, {Axel} Mörner and{och} arkeoastronom Bob UPHOLD{G} Wrap{Lind} is{är} inons, on, ins, {i} full{full} passagesvoyage, {färd} withtoo, {med} preparationsthe preparations, {förberedelserna}. OneOnes, A, {Ett} haggtornssnår ska plunder{skövlas} forbefore, bow, to, with, too, {för} thatto, {att} 17 “nya” stone{stenar} ska becomebess, bes, be, {bli} visible{synliga}.
LSÄ More{MER }
Ls ä more Bob UPHOLD{G} Wrap{Lind} exhaust petrol{avgav} bulletin{rapport }
TheThey, It, {Det} am actingis trading, is acting, are trading, are acting, am trading, {handlar} ifof, ifs, {om} fornminnet aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} Bob UPHOLD{G} Wrap{Lind} dptö totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} Heimdalls stone{stenar}. Under{Enligt} him{honom} ä substitute{r} thethey, it, {det} aans, an, ones, one, {en} kultplats was modelingwere modeling, {formad} totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} aans, an, ones, one, {en} grandstrong, large, great, big, {stor} calendaralmanacs, {kalender}.
IfOf, Ifs, {Om} oneones, a, {ett} couple{par} weekly{veckor} ska Mr.{hr}ä fretasö aans, an, ones, one, {en} geofysisk underskningö. At a{Med ett} srskiltä mtinstrumentä mtsä theythe, them, {de} magnetic{magnetiska} fltenä inons, on, ins, {i} fieldfields, {marken}.
– Nrä fieldfields, {marken} pressure{tryckts} totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} frndrasöä theythe, them, {de} magnetic{magnetiska} vgornaå. WesUss, Us, We, {Vi} ablemay, tin be, tin, {kan} exculpateexonerate, {rent} of{av} find{hitta} track{fotspr}å behind{efter} mnniksornaä aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} livedwere living, was living, {levde} Mr.{hr}ä, sgerä Mrnerö.
– And{Och} we havewe’ve, {vi har} aans, an, ones, one, {en} devil{satans} luckride, trip, {tur}. På Ale Stone{Stenar} strå stone{stenarna} på sameunion, {samma} territoriessoil, territory, {mark} aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} theythe, them, {de} always{alltid} stttå. Mr.{Hr}ä hadhas, have, {har} heal{hela} omrdetå bury{begravts} inons, on, ins, {i} flydsand. Drmedä have we{har vi} heal{hela} thethey, it, {den} originalprimal, {ursprungliga} markytan orrdö.
Utifrnå thethey, it, {den} geofysiska mtningenä draw{ritas} aans, an, ones, one, {en} mapsmap, {karta} över thethey, it, {den} ancient{forna} emporiummarket, {marknivn}å.
– Vrå frhoppningö ä substitute{r} sedan thatto, {att} kunna grvaä awayout, outs, off, {bort} thethey, it, {det} circaroughly, {cirka} metrethe metre, {meter} fog{tjocka} patch{jordlager} aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} partpartly, partially, partial, {delvis} dljerö stone{stenarna}, sgerä Wrap{Lind}.
Under{Enligt} Mrnerö ablemay, tin be, tin, {kan} mtningenä manifestindicate, usher, song, {visa} emporiummarket, {marknivn}å, but{men} ä vein{ven} leavingremains, {rester} of{av} eventualif any, {eventuella} anlggningraä.
– SelfMes, Mess, Me, {Jag} hope{hoppas} thatto, {att} wesuss, us, we, {vi} ablemay, tin be, tin, {kan} find{hitta} totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} example{exempel} aans, an, ones, one, {en} pallissad så thatto, {att} wesuss, us, we, {vi} ablemay, tin be, tin, {kan} date{datera} fornminnet.
Ävein{ven} Mrnerö ä substitute{r} ö implement{vertygad} ifof, ifs, {om} thatto, {att} omrdetå aans, an, ones, one, {en} gngå eachevery, puss, pus, where, {var} aans, an, ones, one, {en} important{viktig} placeseat, space, niche, location, {plats}.
– AphoristicNeat, Ingenious, {Fynd} am exposingshows, is showing, is indicating, is guiding, is exposing, are showing, are indicating, are guiding, are exposing, am showing, am indicating, am guiding, {visar} thatto, {att} grekiska btarå arrivedwere coming, were arriving, was coming, was arriving, come, came, {kom} here{hit} frö thatto, {att} hmtaä brnstenä. TheThey, It, {Det} Mr.{hr}ä eachevery, puss, pus, where, {var} oneones, a, {ett} Greek{grekernas} Hongkong.
Omrdetå aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} Wrap{Lind} and{och} Bob open airopen-air, {frilade} igrå am layinglays, laying, lay, is lying, is laying, are lying, are laying, am lying, {ligger} 160 metrethe metre, {meter} stone{vster}ä ifof, ifs, {om} solkalenderns centre{centrum}. INONS, ON, INS, {I} fornminnesregistret finddiscover, {finns} capacitiesthe capacity, the capacities, sites, places, gramophone record, capacity, {platsen} record{registrerad} paternal{som en} stenkrets beastthe beast, {bestende}å of{av} 11 stone{stenar}. Wrap{Lind} hadhas, have, {har} yet{dock} funnit 17 stone{stenar} product{varav} television{tv}å strå directright, due, directly, {rakt} up{upp}.
– They have{De har} aans, an, ones, one, {en} directthrough, {direkt} relation{relation} totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} theythe, them, {de} övriga stone{stenarna} inons, on, ins, {i} anlggningenä. Nrä brake{buskarna} ä substitute{r} outouts, {borta} am becomingstays, is being, is becoming, gets, get, becomes, are being, are becoming, am being, {blir} thethey, it, {det} än more{mer} distinctlymanifestly, {tydligt}, sgerä Wrap{Lind}.
Emma Lawesson
Honestly, I can’t read it without laughing. Anyone know Swedish?
Has anyone considered the fact that coral grows in analysis of what will happen to low lying atolls if sea levels rise. Unless the sea level increase is very rapid isnt it possible that coral formations will become taller as coral grows in the shallower warmer water it prefers?
rickM (06:45:41) :
Anthony and fellow posters,
I’m a disabled veteran witha long career in EOD in the Navy. As part of my post service rehabilitation, I’ve been going back to school. I thoroughly enjoyed oceanography, but know their just isn’t enough time nor job opportunites for me in that field of study.
I’m taking a course in geology which starts in just 2 weeks. One of the course books is a bright red book on global warming and the IPCC. I’m shuddering as I enjoy basic science, but have no idea how I’m going to survive this as a skeptic. The environment at this college is one of open advocacy, no questions asked and worse, not to be asked or challenged.
Rick, you’re paying for that course so you have every right to ask questions and challenge what you are being taught provided you have evidence. If you are discriminated against in any way or you feel they mark your papers down because your course work doesn’t comply, you have every right to take legal action.
Amid all the flow of news, I’m definitely going to do a thorough review of what is known, and not known, about sea-level changes in various regions (both from land rise or fall and sea rise or fall).
Fascinating arena. As I wrote not long ago, Juneau, Alaska, is rising so fast out of the sea that folks are scrambling to claim the new oceanfront property. So, yes, more to come.
I’ve gotten burned enough in the past by Faux Liberals – who have usurped the term “liberal” for themselves while attempting to falsely convey the idea that the term still means what the “liberal” in “Classical Liberal”
Exactly. These big government neo-Marxists have been usurping everything they can so they can brainwash the youth. Their ideologies are not liberal, not progressive, undemocratic and not environmentally friendly yet they call themselves democrats, liberals, progressive and Greens.
The more sanctimonious someone tries to appear the more they are masking the truth. Just look at Al Gore’s awful “I Care” expression throughout his documentary. Made me want to laugh and vomit at the same time.
You begin to wonder as people have already here, whether the gravey-train might just dry up without disaster on the doorstep of the Maldives. There must be some tax-dollars/pounds/euros/yen on offer somewhere?
One also wonders from articles by Lord Monckton whether sticky fingers or enterprising adjustments of the data went into producing a global sea-level by 2100 of 7m (7000mm) as opposed to 7cm which is the actual estimate given by others. Wouldn’t have taken too much to omit the “c” & just leave the “m”. After all they made a complete hash of the first draft of the SPM 2007 sea-level rise table, SPM-0, with decimal points all over the place & with numbers that simply didn’t add up, then after Monckton pointed it out to them they sneakily withdrew it, changed the numbers all round, including the table number to SPM-1 in the re-draft. Those 2,500 scientists, 400 authors, 800 co-authors & 140 governments around the world reviewing the whole report missed it completly so why should we believe anything they say? Therefore they can be wrong! QED.
I’ll say it again, Table SPM-1, 1.8mm/yr ± 0.5mm/yr between 1961-1993, & 3.2mm/yr ±0.7mm/yr between 1993 & 2003 are the same figure, i.e. 1.8 + 0.5 =2.3mm/yr, & 3.2 – 0.7 = 2.4mm/yr, with 2.3mm/yr being the long-term averaged figure over 60-70 years, they really are the same number to all intents & purposes. Somebody has been playing the numbers game I suspect. To be frank, who on earth in their right mind wants to try & measure sea-level to the nearest 10th decimal place, the miniscus would swallow up that no problem! Perhaps it stems from wanting to look technically minded showing a figure of “great accuracy”, easier to have simply said sea-level rise is between 1mm/yr & 4mm/yr with the average being 2.5mm/yr! Just as meaningful.
BTW great link to Nils-Axel Morner video. Why is it that the anti-AGW team members argue their point in a cool, relaxed, quiet, thoughtful, & considered manner, yet the AGW camp is screaming from the belfry of their new church of impending doom & gloom, the end of the world is nigh?
I watched the last of an excellent series last night on Darwin, by BBC journalist/presenter Andrew Marr, saw most but not all the programmes, but I was just waiting for the Global Warming line to feed its way into the closing moments & sure enough, I wasn’t dissappointed. Marr has of course now gone down in my estimation, but he can’t help it.
Sorry, that should have read 3.1mm/yr ±0.7mm/yr & not 3.2mm/yr! It’s a Friday afternoon after all! Demob happy.
Dave Andrews (07:23:01):
The corals that make up the atoll reefs and islands rise from a submarine ridge that is nearly 400m (1300ft) below sea level.
Maldives coralline atolls have been formed by the total reduction of a volcanic bed beneath the ocean. The volcanic bed roofed the same area the Maldives occupy at present. As the volcanic activity declined, the volcanic bed was sunk gradually. Eventually, the islands ended being submerged totally; nevertheless, the corals continued growing at their perimeters. The continued growth of these coralline reefs upwards on the submerged volcanic bed gave rise to the formation of coral atolls. So it has nothing to do with risings of sea levels, but with sinking of a volcanic stack.
Important addendum: At its maximum growth rate (i.e. 80 mm per year), corals would spend 5000 years for growing 400 meters upwards. This record doesn’t allocate room for a decadal unexpected elevation of the sea levels.
Ian M
ref ad hom attacks on Morner.
These posts were made earlier on this thread which partly answers one of your questions. It is a favourite tactic to try to discredit sceptical scientists with ad hom attacks, either by scorn at a hobby or belief, or more subtly in the ‘more in sorrow than in anger’ type comment as illustrated by these posts
King of Cool (01:41:27) : said
“The Maldives Tree
Anthony, I have a completely open mind on sea level rises or falls in the Maldives or in the rest of the world. I know your web is completely transparent and open to all input. I recall reading this some time ago from a Maldives local and it grabbed my attention as to its authenticity and I believe all your readers should be aware of it. It is item 26 from Shaig in the following URL:
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=118 ”
To which I replied
” I have done some more research on the comment you posted re Morner and the rebuttal of Morners data in the link 26 you provided from someone called Shaig.
The name Shaig might be a common one, but I suspect this relates to the blogger to whom you linked. His comment that “I consider myself a student of climate science’ is somewhat down playing his activities.
Here is his phd profile linking to his papers.
http://www.jcu.edu.au/ees/staff/postgrad/JCUDEV_014807.html
This is a background paper he prepared for the Maldives Govt on sea levels
http://74.125.77.132/search?q=cache:YBYq6duKCfsJ:www.maldivespartnershipforum.gov.mv/2008/3-Environment%2520FINAL.pdf+shaig+maldives&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
This is the full report for the Maldives Govt called ‘ National adaptation program of action’ in which he is cited as an author.
http://env.rol.net.mv/docs/Reports/National%20Adaptation%20Programme%20of%20Action%20-%20Maldives/NAPA_Maldives_optimised.pdf
Shaig is hardly the disinterested partner that his post suggests. What his motives are I do not know, but I repeat that it would be instructive to see if Warwich Hughes received any further information from someone who appears to have his own reasons for saying the things he does.”
If you read the posts in context this might fall into a subtle ad hom attack by Shaig on Morner, but as I don’t want to make one myself on him, people will have to make up their own mind. (Perhaps that is even subtler!!)
Would welcome any further comments on this controversy which periodically resurfaces.
Tonyb
Such an interesting narrative plus the follow on comments.
First it was Tuvalu — not a good choice that one, seeing as how it’s in a geologically active area (subduction zone).
Then it was the Maldives — another not so good choice, as the photographic evidence seems to show; those darn corals insist on growing despite the supposed consensus that they are doomed.
Now the latest island facing danger from the rising seas is — Manhattan. Just wait for the overdue hurricane to hit and flood the subways. There will such a hue & cry raised about how it was caused by global warming.
So, all of technological civilization must grind to a halt because a few none-too-bright folk decided to embrace the romantic notion of living a precarious existence on a fragile speck of land called an island.
I think I’m heading back to bed. Wake me when the human species regains consciousness.
So the Maldives is going to become carbon-neutral. Does that include the flights bringing in the thousands of tourists who are the economic life-blood of the islands?
Somehow I doubt it.
“”” Norm in the Hawkesbury (01:44:24) :
http://www.themaldives.com/map/maldives-map.asp
The Maldive Islands or the Pearls of the Indian Ocean, as it is popularly known, are situated in the South West of Sri Lanka, on the equator. “””
Well my World Atlas places the Maldives to the South West of India; pretty much straight south from Bombay. Thjat is not what I would call south West of Sri Lanka or Ceylon if you will. India separates the Maldives from Sri Lanka or Sumatra. Yes it is true the Maldives are also south west of Borneo, and also south west of Japan. I think south of Bombay is closer to the truth.
Notice they are also tucked into a sort of dead corner of the Indian Ocean with not a lot of water interchange with the body of the indian Ocean. That area (of Ocean) up there also gets nice and hot and is largely the source of Indian Monsoon Rains. In other words, there’s a whole bunch of evaporation goes on in that conrer of the Indian Ocean above Maldives.
Now evaporation is not going to remove very many millimetres of water, but it does remove an astronomical amount of latent heat (545 cal/gm) from a very deep body of ocean that is somewhat in a cul-de-sac.
So that body of water shrinks more than the general Indian ocean, and the sea level is lower as a result of that. I’m sure that’s not the whole story but it is part of it.
Maldives was I believe first to ratify Kyoto; and I am sure they would love a gravy train bailout from Industrial nations.
Dr Sally Baliunas wrote an essay on the Maldives situation; and that may be where I first heard about the peculiar ocean conditions in that area.
But SW of Sri Lanka is still a lousy description of where they are.
George
Richard 111:
I calculate slightly different numbers than you (I think the site you referred to may have numbers a bit off from what I have usually seen). However, I think the general magnitude of what you are stating is absolutely correct. There has to be a massive amount of land-based ice loss to raise the ocean by a meter. There is also some possible sea rise from general increases in ocean temperature, which arguably would come from increased global temperatures (but, then again, this would need to be offset by any cooling of the ocean from the ice melt).
One recent alarmist article highlighted on this site lamented that there were 48 cubic miles of land-based ice lost each year. By my calculations, after 100 years at that rate, the sea level could be expected to rise in the aggregate by a whopping 2.2 inches. Not only is this not a crisis, it is a complete non-event.
Annabelle: “So the Maldives is going to become carbon-neutral. Does that include the flights bringing in the thousands of tourists who are the economic life-blood of the islands? Somehow I doubt it. ”
Agree.
I have to confess I don’t understand the whole idea of being carbon neutral. I’m not sure it is even logically, much less, practically, possible. As near as I can tell, the very act of living impacts the carbon cycle, so what does it mean to be “neutral.”
Can someone enlighten me on just how this concept of “carbon neutral” is defined and calculated?
Andy Revkin (07:59:32) :
Good luck with that – it’s a horribly complex area!
From my reading a couple of scientists who have addressed the absolute sea level rise throughout the Holocene are Kurt Lambeck and Paolo Antonio Pirazzoli, each of who’s work is worth reading when trying to disentangle absolute global sea level changes through the Holocene from local effects due to isostatic rebound, sea floor suppression and tectonic activity.
I assume you have read the comments of Paul S. Kench, Scott L. Nichol and Roger F. McLean who addressed Morner’s work on the Maldives.
Paul S. Kench et al (2005) Global and Planetary Change
Volume 47, Issue 1, May 2005, Pages 67-69
and the analysis of Woodworth which also indicates that Morner’s analysis of sea level changes in the Maldives is suspect to say the least…
Woodworth PL (2005) Have there been large recent sea level changes in the Maldive Islands? GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE vol 49 Issue: 1-2 pp 1-18.
Unfortunately it’s not easy to find an account of these subjects properly described on the blogosphere….happily policymakers and their scientific advisors are increasingly obtaining their information on these important topics from the science (and not the web).
Leon Brozyna (09:29:06):
I think I’m heading back to bed. Wake me when the human species regains consciousness.
Will you sleep forever, my friend? 😉
Rikard Gothäll (01:05:04) :
“Unfortunately Prof Mörner is not a scientist whos work should be taken seriously. He has been criticized publicly for having taught courses in Dowsing at the university.”
My first encounter with dowsing as an earth scientist was in a course taught Dr. Alan Freeze at the University British Columbia (Dr. Freeze is co-author with Dr. John Cherry of the most widely used textbook on groundwater hydrology).
Dr. Freeze’s assessment was that it sometimes appears to work and that his students should keep an open mind.
For those unfamiliar with the strategy, Mr. Gothäll above is employing the all too common rhetorical tactic of the ad hominem attack.
Eric Anderson (09:57:54) wrote:
There is also some possible sea rise from general increases in ocean temperature, which arguably would come from increased global temperatures [snip]
Eric-
Please refer to my earlier posting on sea water density and verify my calculation that the amount of depth change would be minimal for any realistic temperature change.
Ian
Several references, the last by deadwood, to Dowsing show how a lot of people don’t get out in the real world. I don’t know what Morner said about it, but it’s practical use cannot be questioned. I have seen it twice used in the field. Once was when we were getting a lighted sign put up and the utility workers came out to see if they could dig and put in an underground wire. Well, out came the two little copper wires loosely held in one of the men’s hands. The wires clearly showed where the old water line ran across the road and into the yard where we wanted to dig, allowing us to avoid the water when we dug the trench.
The second example (this time using a wood I didn’t ask about), was when a backhoe operator needed to inspect my septic tank and fill lines in the back yard to see what the problem was. Why would these men naturally use these things if they didn’t work, or at least help them in their work?
“Now the latest island facing danger from the rising seas is — Manhattan. Just wait for the overdue hurricane to hit and flood the subways. There will such a hue & cry raised about how it was caused by global warming.”
I recently saw an episode of “How the Earth was Made” which studied the geology of Manhattan. It also pointed out that if hurricane winds and storm surge come in from the southeast, water is guided by the shorelines into the area. All that water is aimed right at “The Narrows” where the Hudson exits. The Narrows accelerates the incoming water, which accumulates on the west side of the island… until it can escape overland back to the Atlantic.
Scapegoats and solutions are left as an exercise for the reader.
An often forgotten fact is that places like the South East of England and Holland used to suffer from flooding almost every year throughout recorded history until they made infrastructure improvements.
Natural sedimentation too has helped prevent flooding and damage from sea level rise. The south coast of England today is around five miles more expanded than it was when the Romans landed. The English Channel is narrower too. The same thing is going on in Bangladesh where its land mass is increasing due to sedimentation and plate tectonics.
Preventing flooding doesn’t require cutting carbon emissions or damaging the economy at all. It just takes engineering and terraforming (manmade and natural) to prevent and can be done as and when necessary instead of spending huge amounts of money well in advance because a flawed climate model or ever-fattening has-been politician predicted catastrophic sea level rise.
Stability of piers. I remember being out on the end of a fishing pier at Half Moon Bay, California, USA. in 1945. The incoming swells were quite large and looking back towards shore, you could see the deck of the pier moving up and down, following the swells as they rolled shoreward.
Dr. Freeze’s assessment was that it sometimes appears to work and that his students should keep an open mind.
It is important to keep an open mind, the science behind dowsing is however completely clear (e.g., Jim Enright (1999)). Mörners position on the matter is that dowsing can be used as a tool not only to find water, but also to find remnants of ancient civilisations as well as so called curry and hartman lines. His methods of research have been questioned several times and he was stopped from teaching dowsing as science by the university.
All Im trying to convey is that no Swedish scientist wants to have anything to do with Dr Mörner as his methods are quite unsound. Anyone who wants to cite his work as a reference should be very sure to check the facts properly. This is not something that has any bearing on the sea level of the Maldives other than that Dr Mörner often still claims to be the chairman of the now terminated commission.
Let me use a web dowser.
“Rikard Gothäll (01:05:04) :
Hi!
I am a long time follower of your blog. I am also a scientist active in a field neighboring that of prof Mörner. (Rock Mechanics).
Unfortunately Prof Mörner is not a scientist whos work should be taken seriously. ”
Is this the same Rikard Gothall?
“Biography: Graduate student in rock mechanics. Head sound engineer at my church”
http://churchsound.prosoundweb.com/index.php/u/15479/52189d394c3722cebd9dc40120e4bd31/
Ouch, Rikard Googled.
So he has a problem with Morner dowsing. Does Rikard have a problem with his employers at the church worshipping Jesus?
On dowsing:
Being a skeptical scientist type, I scoffed at the idea of using hanger wire held loosely in the hands to find underground piping where we were wanting to drill. The site was a petroleum terminal with lots of piping next to the river, some above ground some below. To test this theory, I walked across the above ground pipes with the wires held loosely in my hands and every time I walked across one of the pipes, the wires would swing out and point in the direction the pipes were oriented. Tried it where the pipes went below ground with the same result. I told them to go for it. We sited the wells based on the divining rods (as they were called) and drilled our holes without incident.
How does it work? I have no idea, but it does.
Nasif Nahle,
Thanks for your clarification.
Andy Revkin (07:59:32) :
Thank you for the update. OT but germane: The following appears in the “About Dot Earth” section of your web page:
“By 2050 or so, the world population is expected to reach nine billion, essentially adding two Chinas to the number of people alive today. Those billions will be seeking food, water and other resources on a planet where, scientists say, humans are already shaping climate and the web of life.”
It would appear from this that Dot Earth is principally concerned with expanding population. Extrapolation would conclude that AGW and “Climate Change” are in fact euphemisms for population issues. Would it not be journalistic honesty to simply couch the entire concern as population? And thereby avoid the crushing humiliation coming from the collapse of verifiable AGW science?
The people on the planet are far enough along to handle the issues of population, energy independence and real climate science. The old tactic of trying to “scare ’em straight” is… well, old. And ineffective. If your paper really cares about the planet and its real issues – you owe the people honesty. You might be surprised by how effective it can be.
Re: Rikard Gothäll’s links:
Apparently Prof Mörner is interested in divining rods and Curry lines. The magazine that RG linked to is as far as I understand a Swedish equivalent of the Sceptical Inquirer.
I don’t think a translation of those articles would add anything to the discussion on the Maldives.
Anyway, this is his side activity. From the initial post it appeared that his professional activities had been questioned. That, as far as I have been able to find out, has not been the case. (It is more a case that they have been met by silence by the AGW proponents.)
But don’t take my word for it. The best thing is to read his papers with a critical an open mind:
http://www.junkscience.com/jan04/nils-morner_1.pdf
http://www.junkscience.com/jan04/nils-morner_2.pdf
DJ (02:22:23) :
“The trend is 3.2mm/year. That’s a fact in observational data collected by satellite data and matched by tidal gauges.”
sea-level data has probably the lowest quality data set of all measurement, and like no other data set is vulnerable to cherry picking.
what we do know, however, is, that the trend above measured by some tidal gauges is not matched by satellite raw data.
the satellite data slope is calibrated later to replicate the tidal gauge data slope.
we also know that this information is typically not given in sea-level charts, misleading readers (like DJ) to the opinion, that satellite data would confirm the trend of the selected tide gauge data.
Alas the key phrase is :
“- När marken tryckts till förändras de magnetiska vågorna. Vi kan rent av hitta fotspår efter männiksorna som levde här, säger Mörner.”
of which the key word is “fotspår”, or footprints, so it appears to be a correct translation. Of course maybe he was misquoted. It happens.
Ease off on Andy Revkin, his blog is about sustainability, which covers anything that 9 billion people will need to live a decent life in 2050. He’s well aware of the argument that ending poverty seems to be the best solution to the problem but to do that you need to use a lot more energy. Hence alternative energies need to be found in any event and as such there is common ground to be sought for those who desire to seek it. You can’t judge the man by the moonbat doomsdayers that are drawn to his site.
Andy R.,
Welcome to the Best Science Blog (2008 Weblog Award).
Herein you will find a wonderful selection of science and commentary on climatology, weather, and related fields, with contributions from experts, students, and trolls.
Feel free to become educated, for free! We’re watching you, so you ought to be watching us. It might help you avoid certain pitfall traps and foot-in-mouth disease. Better for you, better for everybody!
Tim McHenry (11:16:32) :
Getting off topic somewhat but the James Randi Educational Foundation (http://www.randi.org/site) offers the One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge and dowsing is definitely within the realm of the paranormal. The challenge has been in place for many years with no winners of the prize. Its funny how dowsers can find all kinds of unseen things underground but they have a problem with finding $1,000,000.
I don’t know whether Professor Mörner espouses the “science” of dowsing and perhaps the evidence of lone the tree attacked by students/greens/vandals is suspect, but I haven’t seen any credible attack on Mörner’s historical shore line evidence yet.
Foinavon gives some references to articles casting doubt on Mörner’s work but in searching out the article, payment is required so forget that. I did notice that there was also an article available with Mörner replying to the refutation of his work. So what is the sea level doing in the Maldives? Can you trust the Maldivians when there is so much gravy to be had by crying rising sea levels?
” Paul Hildebrandt (13:51:07) :
How does it work? I have no idea, but it does.”
When I was a young child I watched as the plumber located our main drain from the house to the street using this method. It worked for him, too.
BBC at it again, 20th March 2009.
News night review, subject , THE AGE OF STUPID new global warming propaganda film, lead actor is true believer, panel discussing movie true believers, short intro with Martin Durkin about 10 seconds. This was the usual BBC balanced discussion on global warming, lead actors 6 year old is also a true believer and has been brainwashed at the age of 6, sad that.
“…Hence alternative energies need to be found in any event and as such there is common ground to be sought for those who desire to seek it. ”
Sorry…but on this point, I disagree. I see no reason why anyone or any government should be forced to use econimcally inefficient forms of energy.
Let them burn clean coal, let them build nuclear plants. There is no reason to force “alternative” energy on anyone. In fact, we will most likely need every nuclear plant we can build to sustain that population, and btw?…China and India will be building them.
JimB
George E. Smith (09:52:25) :
Wow!
I know we don’t cite wiki as reliable but ……
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maldives
The Maldives ( /ˈmɒldaɪvz/ (help·info) or /ˈmɒldiːvz/), (Dhivehi: ދިވެހިރާއްޖެ) or Maldive Islands, officially the Republic of Maldives, is an island nation consisting of a group of atolls stretching south of India’s Lakshadweep islands between Minicoy Island and the Chagos Archipelago, and about seven hundred kilometres (435 mi) south-west of Sri Lanka in the Laccadive Sea of Indian Ocean. The twenty-six atolls of Maldives encompass a territory featuring 1,192 islets, of which two hundred and fifty islands are inhabited.[3]
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/LocationMaldives.png
Maybe you should ask the Maldives whether they feel threatened by the sea. They would have the best perspective considering they live there.
Oh wait, they’re going carbon neutral…
I find it interesting browing the Proudman oceanographic data from individual stations. (see http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/psmsl_individual_stations.html)
Very instructive, particularly where there are multiple stations in particular locations, often showing differing trends. Some useful plots too.
Matt Dernoga:
“Maybe you should ask the Maldives whether they feel threatened by the sea. They would have the best perspective considering they live there.”
Well, that’s two wrong statements. But who’s counting?
First, asking them if they “feel threatened” is tantamount to asking: Do you want free money?
And second, the people with the best perspective are the scientists who study sea levels.
0 for 2.
My suggestion for the Maldives, at least the major ones where tourism reigns supreme…
Those islands that are populated and cater to tourists, they should build a 2″ thick glass wall around the entire island, 15′ high.
If the sea rise is as dramatic as they claim, then they’ll have the most unique walk-around-inside aquarium in the world. Much better than Atlantis in Nassau. They’ll have to wait a while…a LONG while…well, probably never, but it’s a massive project, will protect them from rising sea levels, will require TONS of $$$$, and will continue to support tourism.
How can this be a bad idea?
JimB
JimB
Ah but if clean coal ever appears at some distant point, it’s likely not going to be economically efficient so you can scratch that one off your list. And coal is certainly dirty by any description. By the same token, heavy oil and shale oil won’t be cheap or clean. The costs of nuclear are not so straightforward to determine either as their costs have been cunningly disguised by nuclear partisans even without counting the massive cleanup operations required. I’m not sure you’d be keen on a new breed of terrorists running around with polonium dirty bombs either.
Ah but if we could get these Thorium reactors going….but then you’re in the same camp as Hansen. Then we could start up geothermal energy in a big way…. which is what Gore often talks about. And what if Israel really do have a good design for much cheaper solar panels as they say. Even now, some people manage to keep their houses going on solar power alone. And geothermal heating and cooling is certainly near the top of my shopping list when it comes down just a little bit in price. So if all these these things have a pretty good chance of being cheap, safe and clean too then it’s not so difficult to reach common ground is it? The trick is to avoid those extremely dodgy economic forecasts based on pure guesswork by charlatans and just look at the engineering practicalities of it all.
I think it’s a trap too to believe that those moonbat, anti-capitalist, anti-population nutjobs represent the majority of AGWers, when they are probably just a loud, lunatic fringe.
Back to the point, I frankly suspect the Maldives are just rising faster than the sea is.
The first Global Warming legislation we pass should be a treaty with all western countries banning travel to Maldives in anything that’s powered by fossil fuel.
Sea level rise won’t be their problem then.
Data for the SSH at the coordinates Long: 73, Lat: 2 (around the Maldives).
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/cgi-sealevel/table.cgi?coor.x=110&coor.y=96&dlon=&dlat=&map=v&fit=n&smooth=n&days=60
All available data (from 1992 to 2008) shows a trend of approximately .065 cm/decade.
Anthony, Not now, but in 2500, the Maldives will be over-run by high sea levels, yes. Now, life is wonderful. Rejoice, and enjoy. I went to the Maldives last fall, great great place, a real paradise on Earth. But it won’t be there in 500 years, and you know why. SIGH
Danny
Polar City Man
Danny Bloom wrote:
“Anthony….I went to the Maldives last fall, great great place, a real paradise on Earth. But it won’t be there in 500 years, and you know why. SIGH”
It is not wise to conjecture about what will happen 500 years from now when we don’t have a handle as to what will happen in 500 days. SIGH~
Chris
Norfolk, VA
the oceans havebeen cooling since at least 2003,
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/03/the-ocean-really-is-cooling/
sea-levels should then be falling due to thermal compression.
JamesG says
“I think it’s a trap too to believe that those moonbat, anti-capitalist, anti-population nutjobs represent the majority of AGWers, when they are probably just a loud, lunatic fringe.”
Comment:
Some of your other comments may be valid but the moonbat folks you reference above are in the drivers seat in congress and in the white house as evidenced by the legislation being pushed through. Those who fit the moonbat description are the Speaker of the House, Congressman Waxman, The enegy czar, the Department of energy secretary, the EPA head, and a few others in the administration that even includes one who is a (past?) member of an international socialist organization. These folks have already declared CO2 to be a pollutant. Only a moonbat could support that position.
Knowing that the alternative energy sources will cost about double that of current fossil fuels, the plan seems to be to tax and burden conventional fuel suppliers thus chocking the supply of “cheap” conventional energy. In addition to taxing the production, they plan to add a carbon tax or cap and trade on top of the proposed onerous tax on oil, natural gas and coal production.
Besides the enormous increased cost, the risk is that the strategy depends largly on technology that currently is not demonstrated commercially and may never provide a meaningful energy supply. If the gamble does not materialize the impact on our economy would be devastating. Furthermore the alternatives often requires more energy in it’s manufacture than it ultimately provides (think ethanol with Congress mandating more and more every time they meet). Huge tax dollars are being dunped in a “market” to develop alternatives that is already strained to wisely spend the money. I see it every day.
Finally, I don’t understand your comment that heavy oil won’t be cheap or clean. Heavy oil has been produced and widely used for probably 40 years or more; and while it costs more that light sweet crude it is cost effective and clean. Technology has been practiced in refineries for years to process heavy oils and remove the sulphur. Many refineries have been designed to process heavy crudes using Fluid Cokers or delayed cokers.
We you confused with tar sands? For your information, I worked on a huge Canadian tar sands plant about 30 years ago, and it was built when crude was $12/bbl; and that plant used the same technology as refineries use today to break down heavy crude to lighter products (used in gasoline and diesel oils).
It always amazes me to hear our media and politicians talk about things like energy where they have absolutely no understanding of the facts and clearly don’t want to know the facts. Their agenda is exposed.
Hey Danny Bloom, how’s that court case working out for yea? lol
Tell me,….. is there such thing as “Crimes against sanity”?
TonyB (04:08:02) :
No TonyB, I never got any aerial photos.
Thanks for the heads up re Shaig
This article is correct in pointing out the tide gauges can produce suspect data, just like weather stations; there is much to be done in that area.
Richard III
I had read that a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would raise the ocean level by about six feet, and your calculations seem to bear that out. According to Wikipedia, the volume of ice in the WAIS is about 2.5 million cubic kilometers. You indicate that a melt of 398.398 cubic kilometers in a rear
s time would raise the sea level one foot. 2.500,000/398,398 =~ 6.25. The problem is that melt isn’t the issue. The Ross Ice Shelf acts as a door stop tothe WAIS, and when it collapses, which it tends to do during interglacial periods, theWAIS begins to slip into the ocean I have no information as to the pace at which pieces of the ice sheet and related glaciers begin to break off and float off, but I imagine that within a hundred year perios this would result in a considerably greater inrease the the one foot that you estimate.
JamesG (16:52:02) :
“JimB
Ah but if clean coal ever appears at some distant point, it’s likely not going to be economically efficient so you can scratch that one off your list. ”
No…it’s not that simple. Our definitions of “clean” may be different.
“And coal is certainly dirty by any description.”
Again, not by mine. But I’m curious, what’s your definition?
“I’m not sure you’d be keen on a new breed of terrorists running around with polonium dirty bombs either. ”
I’m not keen on the ones that are running around now. The proliferation of nuclear energy isn’t going to change that. This particular horse has already left the barn. It’s a lot like disproving a consensus…only takes one BOOM.
“Even now, some people manage to keep their houses going on solar power alone. ”
Yes, they do. No question. The state of Maine has a few thousand homes that are “off the grid”. The problem is that it’s not a matter of choosing an energy source, it’s a lifestyle change. And a major one. It’s not as simple as a few solar panels, a few solar collectors, a good mill, and I’m all set. First, as an individual, I need to store it. And I need to store enough of it, that when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow, I can keep my heat running in mid December when I may not see the sun for a week. No problem, I’ll just increase the size of my battery bank in the basement. Now what about the grocery store?…how big does their battery bank need to be?
So in the end, what’s possible for some dedicated home owners, is not possible for Mrs. Steffan down the street who’s 84 and doesn’t get around to well anymore. And the solution doesn’t scale. If the Israeli’s really do have cheap panels?…why aren’t they selling them?…and if they do?…that’s fantastic. As a supplement. For some people/applications. And how big is the battery bank for the Mall? Or do we tear that down? Reduce hours for when it has energy available?
“So if all these these things have a pretty good chance of being cheap, safe and clean too then it’s not so difficult to reach common ground is it?”
And I’m sorry, but this is a pretty major assumption, and I believe it’s false based on my understanding of things. When and how do they have “a pretty good chance of being cheap”? There’s nothing cheap about windfarms vis a vis the energy they produce, if you remove the subsidies.
“Back to the point, I frankly suspect the Maldives are just rising faster than the sea is.”
I don’t know whether the islands are rising faster than the ocean. I don’t believe we thoroughly understand the dynamics yet. What I DO believe is that the Maldives aren’t in any danger at this point, at least not due to global warming. That they exist on land that is a foot about sea level and are willing to risk a tsunami/hurricane/cyclone? Not my problem, and it’s not the rest of the world’s either.
JimB
James G wrote:
“Ah but if clean coal ever appears at some distant point, it’s likely not going to be economically efficient so you can scratch that one off your list. And coal is certainly dirty by any description.”
I may be wrong, but isn’t it coal uneconomic only when Co2 needs to be removed? Can’t coal smoke be fairly well scrubbed otherwise?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6e/Antarctica_Map.png
Marie Byrd Land is the portion of Antarctica lying east of the Ross Ice Shelf and the Ross Sea and south of the Pacific Ocean, extending eastward approximately to a line between the head of the Ross Ice Shelf and Eights Coast.
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Because of its remoteness, even by Antarctic standards, most of Marie Byrd Land (the portion east of 150°W) has not been claimed by any sovereign nation. It isn’t a recognised nation, making it by far the largest single unclaimed territory on Earth, with an area of 1 610 000 km² (including Eights Coast, immediately east of Marie Byrd Land).
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.
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While the Amundsen Sea, off eastern Marie Byrd Land represented James Cook’s farthest south position on his 1774 Resolution voyage, the detailed exploration of Marie Byrd Land did not begin until the United States Navy’s Operation High Jump of 1946-47. Comprehensive aerial photography from ski equipped C-47 aircraft provided the first maps of much of Marie Byrd Land.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marie_Byrd_Land
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is the segment of the continental ice sheet that covers West (or Lesser) Antarctica, the portion of Antarctica west of the Transantarctic Mountains. The WAIS is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies well below sea level and its edges flow into floating ice shelves. The WAIS is bounded by the Ross Ice Shelf, the Ronne Ice Shelf, and outlet glaciers that drain into the Amundsen Sea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet
Questions
a) Is east east or is it west?
b) Is it because of it’s ‘remoteness’ that all this WAIS speculation is proposed, ie nobody goes there?
c) If the WAIS drains into the Amundsen Sea and this sea is “off eastern Marie Byrd Land”, see Q-a?
d) Marie Byrd Land lies between the Transantarctic Mountains and the Amundsen Sea, see Q-a?
It helps if the map link at the top of this post is opened in another window/tab.
Is WikiP confused or am I?
“lobal sea level has been rising at a rate of about a foot per century but the Maldives are either rising or subject to a local sea level anomaly related to ocean currents and evaporation rates. ” from the Don Easterbook memo/note.
I can only assume that people cheering on the Maldives think that somehow every coastline threatened by sea level rises will in fact rise itself, or be saved by a local seal level anomaly? I’m sure the Bangladeshis are jumping for joy at this news:)
lol at myself… seal level rise:)
and lobal… I gotta hit the sack. although that was a cut/paste error rather than a typo.
Solar cells and batteries (two bulwarks of “alternative energy”) have serious, probably irresolvable toxicity issues.
The road to Hell is paved with good intentions…
West things can be near east things. The west Atlantic is by the east coast of North America.
Robert Austin (15:18:44) :
WRT dowsing, it would be my guess from the link that you gave that the Foundation would not in the end classify the examples I gave as actual “dowsing.” It is easy to avoid giving away money when you make it impossible to satisfy conditions or define your terms inexactly. At any rate, I know nothing of “curry and hartman lines” and this might be more like what JREF would classify as “dowsing.” The things I described obviously work on a regular basis and have nothing to do with people finding lost civilizations, just water and pipes 🙂
Aron (04:58:09) : You know, I really take issue when someone’s work is discredited because of their beliefs or lifestyle.
I must agree!
FWIW, my Dad did dowsing for local farmers where I grew up. Not as a business (he sold real estate mostly) but because he had learned it “back on the farm” from some ancestor and had “witched a well” for a local friend… who brought in lots of water. Word spread. So he ended up doing it for friends & neighbors as a favor. (Everyone in a dinky farm town is either a friend or a neighbor…)
He even taught me to do it. Yes, I’ve done ‘water witching’ or dowsing. Per the ‘cross check’ of my Dad dowsing the same site (and the final results) I was pronounced to have whatever gift it is that lets one dowse. It is a remarkably strange experience to have the wood (we were traditional in the use of a Y shaped branch, preferably from a willow or similar water thirsty species) twist in you hands and head to the ground. It move strongly and is not a subtile effect. There is most definitely something that happens.
Now, the kicker: I don’t believe in dowsing! I’m absolutely convinced that there must be some subtile interaction of hands, wood, torque, whatever; that makes the “wand” move and point. But try as I might, I can’t figure out what it is. I can hold a stick for a long time, nothing. Move around some and things wiggle. Then there will come a place where it just starts to twist toward the ground. I’ve had the bark twisted off the wood from my grip on it, trying to stop the twist. I’ve tried deliberately manipulating the stick with slightly better results – I can get minor motions. But that rapid rotate down with vigor just comes when it wants to and I can’t force it to happen.
How is this germane? I would happily teach a class in Dowsing to anyone who was interested. I would demonstrate it, give the history, even pronounce who had “the gift” and who did not based on performance. But I would also point out the complete lack of any rational bases and the “voodoo” probability. The point: There is nothing wrong with teaching a class about anything. There may be something wrong if you characterize the data as something they are not. Don’t let you pronouncements exceed the observed facts…
So if we don’t know exactly what was in his class, the existence of it says nothing about the teacher.
After reading numerous posts by E.M.Smith on this site over many months, would anyone say that they must be discredited now, simply because of the experiences he describes in his 10:03:15 post above?
Yet the grossly unethical personal attacks against Dr. Mörner, simply because he has an interest in something that he thinks may have a reasonable explanation, are nothing but vicious ad hominems by the alarmist contingent.
Alarmists routinely employ such personal attacks along with other unsavory tactics in an effort to advance their reality-deficient CO2/AGW cause and effect belief system.
Personally attacking one of the world’s foremost sea level experts because he has a hobby that they think he should not be allowed to have is typical of many AGW believers’ tactics.
Their tactic is, of course, to attack the man, and to hide out from debating his science.
Tim McHenry (08:24:56) :
Sounds like you have made up your mind without reading the JREF site and the challenge rules. Are you saying that since the $1,000,000 challenge has not been won, the rules must be bogus/unfair? Basically, the person claiming the paranormal phenomenon is allowed to state what they are attempting to show and the JREF through a third party sets up double blind testing. Dowsing for water has been tried and failed under these conditions along with dowsing for other substances and utilities. Have you ever heard of the ideomotor effect?
The JREF site is an interesting read and will show you how the mind can fool oneself and how easily the charlatans can ply their art. James Randi was a former magician who has devoted his life to challenging and debunking paranormal phenomena, especially where it involves separating the gullible from their money. His stories about how easily scientists can be bamboozled should be of special interest to this forum.
Paranormal phenomena are like AGW in that the onus should be on the proponents to prove their claims. A common tactic of proponents is to attempt to shift the burden of disproof onto the skeptic.
Robert Austin, you are so right:
It’s more than a common tactic; when they shift the burden like that, it is nothing less than a repudiation of the Scientific Method.
Following the Scientific Method has guided civilization in the direction of truth, which has in turn made the modern world into the healthiest, richest and most egalitarian society in history.
Climate alarmists want to change that.
Eric Anderson (10:04:38) :
This is simple. Send Al Gore lots of money and he will declare you carbon neutral. I’m sure there will be lots of certificates (all printed on recycled paper) attesting to all the carbon offsetting activities financed by your contributions.
Just another observation:
The Arabs are producing the ultimate source of evil CO2, which is supposedly threatening their Islamic brothers in the Maldives. Would it not be completely fair and in harmony with all sorts of proper ethical standards for the Arabs to pay for the climate change problems experienced by the inhabitants of the Maldives? Doesn’t Allah love the compassionate, especially those hurt by one’s own activities?
Maybe on this point, the greens and oil producing Moslems can come to terms on this?
We’re only talking about a billion dollars. At today’s oil prices, that’s only 20,000,000 barrels of oil. The Saudis are producing about 12,000,000 barrels a day. Two days of oil production and the problem is solved.
Of course it is not a problem, because the sea levels are not rising in the Maldives. How awkward to have others notice the water is not rising. The tree story is a side show. Just look at the geology.
Roger Knights (02:30:45) :
“I may be wrong, but isn’t it coal uneconomic only when Co2 needs to be removed? Can’t coal smoke be fairly well scrubbed otherwise?”
Roger, my wife and I unknowingly moved to an area in SW Missouri within a half-mile of a 160MW coal-fired power plant. We live directly in the path of the prevailing winds from that plant. We were stunned to find out the plant was there, because it doesn’t smoke, smell, or leave any black carbon residue anywhere we can find, even on pristine snow with the plant operating a maximum. We had thought it was a factory of some kind which had closed. Next year, an 300MW addition to the plant comes on line, with an EVEN BETTER emissions scrubber! I had no power outages even during the “Ice Storm of the Century” a couple of years ago. New coal power plant in My Back Yard? Yes, please!
Henry
Sea-level guages..thermometres…rain guages..you name it; until very recently they have all been rather inaccurate….for several reasons.
Is the sea rising or the land falling? Is the guage sinking into clay or mud? Is the guage being somehow raised/lowered by a buckling effect on the platform to which it’s attached/? Who knows?
My personal, slightly O/T, anecdote….
A friend ran a small general store/post office/bank agency in a remote coastal area of Australia…which was/is the Bureau of Meterology’s data source for that area. The BoM station has now been automated. However…
From about 1980 to 1990 my friend was responsible for writing data down and relaying it by phone to the Met. Rainfall in the guage (a beaker) was ESTIMATED by sight!! Sometimes he took a guess..sometimes just made it up.
Sometimes he lost his weekly notes and remembered them as best he could. I suspect a lot of weather data was collected in such a haphazard manner. I wouldn’t be surprised if people even tampered/tamper with the equipment, in the spirit of vandals everywhere.
There’s one station I know in the mountains measuring various things..which could easily be manipulated by bored hikers!! A good kick and maybe there’s been a 7.8 scale earthquake up there ? A cup of water down the guage and, boy, has this year’s precipitation increased!!
Cheers.
” Next year, an 300MW addition to the plant comes on line, with an EVEN BETTER emissions scrubber! I had no power outages even during the “Ice Storm of the Century” a couple of years ago. New coal power plant in My Back Yard? Yes, please!
Henry”
IF the new administration doesn’t shut it down…
Robert Austin (11:09:29)
I DID go to the JREF site and read. My point is that the utility workers are not claiming anything “paranormal.” They have no idea and don’t care how the rods bend. In the cases I pointed out it had nothing to do with beliefs or lack thereof, it’s just something they do to find the water and/or pipes. Now if the Foundation wants to call that a “paranormal” claim, then I’m sure those workers would like $1mil, but I don’t think the foundation would classify what I described (at 11:16:32) as a paranormal event. The impression I get from their website is that you would have to have the workers claim some power or reason behind the rods turning. Sorry, no “gift” here, just an interesting and practical phenomena to find the water.
I guess the reason I stuck with this little OT matter is that I was there and saw it work myself and they evidently use the method regularly.
The latest “Greenhouse Economy” issue of US News & World Report has a section on Bangladesh. The claim is that rising level of seawater going up the rivers is causing salt deposits on the land along the Bay of Bengal coast, preventing normal growth in the rice paddies. So Germanwatch (an environmental NGO) has put Bangladesh at the top of the 2009 Global Climate Risk Index of 170 countries. (Sorry, Maldives!) So, “Bangladesh officials officials are appealing for more help from fossil-fuel-burning industrialized countries, the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, to help Bangladesh adapt and avoid a calamity. The compensation issue is to be raised at the Copenhagen Conference in December.” I’m wondering how much the frequent storm surges of seawater over the coastal areas have to do with the salt deposits, vs. the supposed sea level rise.
Mike Bryant (12:47:17) :
“IF the new administration doesn’t shut it down…”
This is Missouri, Mike. Even if The One sent us an order, we probably wouldn’t get around to it for 15-20 years. If there were big words in the order, could take a lot longer.
Henry
Retired BChE (12:59:34):
So, “Bangladesh officials are appealing for more help from fossil-fuel-burning industrialized countries, the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, to help Bangladesh adapt and avoid a calamity.
Is it a Facebook-like game? 🙂
Retired BChE:
Re inundated coastlines: we had a bit of that in Long Beach, California. Not due to ocean rising, though. Was due to subsidence from oil production.
http://www.uwsp.edu/gEo/faculty/ozsvath/images/long_beach_subsidence.htm
@ Henry Phipps
Re shutting down coal-fired power plants.
California is currently moving away from coal-based power, which is imported from Utah. But even this green-nuts place has a lick of sense over this one. The switch from coal will not happen until the existing contracts expire, one in 2019 and another one much later. This allows the utilities time to build something else, which in our case will likely be geothermal in the Salton Sea area. It counts as renewable, and is fairly reliable, but very costly.
I would guess that if California can wait a decade or two, with promises only, then Missouri can take as long as they like. Maybe until the glaciers are back on the doorstep!
Should not the fact that the population has increased from 200,000 to 400,000 in 25 years make somebody ask the question whether the main problem for Maldives may be overpopulation, not sea level rise? Just as in the case of Tuvalu, where I have looked at both population data and sea level data, and found that if the islands are sinking into the sea, it must rather be because of the total weight of all the people than rapidly rising sea levels.
Moreover, people just do not seem to realize how coral islands work. They have survived rising sea levels for thousands of years, because they grow in height. It was Charles Darwin who first understood and described this process.
Roger Sowell (14:11:39) :
Retired BChE:
Re inundated coastlines: we had a bit of that in Long Beach, California. Not due to ocean rising, though. Was due to subsidence from oil production.
http://www.uwsp.edu/gEo/faculty/ozsvath/images/long_beach_subsidence.htm
@ Henry Phipps
Re shutting down coal-fired power plants.
California is currently moving away from coal-based power, which is imported from Utah. But even this green-nuts place has a lick of sense over this one. The switch from coal will not happen until the existing contracts expire, one in 2019 and another one much later. This allows the utilities time to build something else, which in our case will likely be geothermal in the Salton Sea area. It counts as renewable, and is fairly reliable, but very costly”.
I would guess that if California can wait a decade or two, with promises only, then Missouri can take as long as they like. Maybe until the glaciers are back on the doorstep!”
Roger Sowell (14:11:39) :
Retired BChE:
Visiting Iceland where thermal energy is used everywhere I have noticed a very negative aspect of this “clean” energy”.
It’s noise, incredible noise of howling turbines and loud hissing pressure valves regulating steam pressure of the piping system.
Maybe it’s because I did not expect this effect but since this experience thermal energy has become a kind of rudimentary type of energy source.
I guess it’s expensive to take noise reduction measures, otherwise they would have made the effort.
It’s somewhat surprising that anyone takes the water-witching ad hommies against Mörner seriously. I’ve never tried dowsing, but I did have one paranormal ability: dematerialization. I used to be able to make chocolate chip cookies disappear! Will the Anthropogenic Global Warming Disasterists use this special gift to cast aspersions on my Blueberry Pancake Theory of Climate Change?
Update: I’ve developed a wheat allergy. I’m very curious to see if the old mojo would work with wheat-free CC cookies made from rice flour. If someone on this board sends me some, I’ll report the results. And I’ll let James Randi keep his hard-earned money.
Tim McHenry (12:53:01) :
OT but I am responding because, just as Al Gore lumped AGW skeptics in with flat-earthers, so I am afraid of AGW skeptics being associated with dowsing and other “whoo-whoo-ism”. While I am not accusing you of being a troll, there are people that come here for the express purpose of posting nonsense, sowing dissension and trying to elicit responses that they can take back to the “warmer” blogs as evidence that skeptics are nothing but cretins.
Dowsers do not have to claim or even think that dowsing is paranormal, they just have to be able to show dowsing works. The following is ab excerpt from Randi’s FAQ on the challenge:
2.2 What is the definition of “paranormal” in regards to the Challenge?
Webster’s Online Dictionary defines “paranormal” as “not scientifically explainable; supernatural.”
Within the Challenge, this means that at the time your application is submitted and approved, your claim will be considered paranormal for the duration. If, after testing, it is decided that your ability is either scientifically explainable or will be someday, you needn’t worry. If the JREF has agreed to test you, then your claim is paranormal.
2.3 Does my claim count as paranormal?
Possibly. Read through the JREF forum for a list of previous applicants if you’d like to see whether or not your claim has been tested before. The list can be found at: http://forums.randi.org/forumdisplay.php?f=43
Past claims have included: psychic or mediumistic powers, ESP, dowsing, magnetic humans, astrology, faith healing, etc.
So lets bury the subject of dowsing and gey back to climate.
LarryF (17:34:08) :
Rice flour chocolate chip cookies? To think that I lived so long that I had to hear this. First it was “flaky pie crusts” could be made without lard, then it was some kinda beans in chili. I tell you, children, the world’s goin’ to heck in a handbasket. Hoping for the best for you, Larry, but shakin’ my head sadly.
Henry 🙂
Robert Austin (18:00:47) :
I don’t mean to take over the thread, but it is starting to get old what with all the new posts in front of it, so I don’t think anyone will mind. I just wanted to say that there is 0% chance that JREF is going to count the utility man walking over the water and having those copper wires do their thing as a paranormal event (or they might claim “dowsing” is something else). I can ask those fellas at Tri-County Electric, but I’m pretty sure that the wires will do what I saw at that site every time, no matter who is holding them, and there’s just no way they’re going to get a dime for it. I appreciate you sticking with the subject, but I do take exception with your description of those who use the wires or sticks at work as purveyors of “whoo-whoo-ism.”
Finally, I once again point out that JREF is NOT going to give $1mil to someone who can show them just any ole’ thing that’s “not scientifically explainable” at the present time.
Ron de Haan:
(I am not sure if this was directed to me, or Retired BChE)
“Visiting Iceland where thermal energy is used everywhere I have noticed a very negative aspect of this “clean” energy”.
It’s noise, incredible noise of howling turbines and loud hissing pressure valves regulating steam pressure of the piping system.
Maybe it’s because I did not expect this effect but since this experience thermal energy has become a kind of rudimentary type of energy source.
I guess it’s expensive to take noise reduction measures, otherwise they would have made the effort.”
Thermal power plants have the noise problem, but it can be abated with proper design and material selection. The noise arises when high-velocity steam whizzes through small openings. Control valves that are sized wrong also can make tremendous noise. Sometimes the noise increases when the entire plant is operated below capacity, because the control valves close a bit and the internal opening is smaller. Sound absorbing walls can be installed to abate noise down to low levels. Also, thermal insulation not only reduces heat losses, but absorbs and reduces noise.
ITS GOOD TO SEE POPLE LIKE YOU TELLING THE TRUTH AND EXPOSING THESE FRAUDULANT CLAIMS ,ITS A SHAME WE CANT GET IT OUT IN THE MEDIA A LOT MORE TO EXPOSE THE COVERUPS ,KNOCKING THAT TREE DOWN IS A DISCRACE AND SHOULD BE HEADLINES ,MEDIA WATCH IN AUSTRALIA MIGHT DO A PROGAME ON THISIF YOU APPROACHED THEM .THANKS FOR THE HONESTY .
Tim McHenry (18:51:27) :
What I hear is cognitive dissonance.
You appear to be rationalizing in your own mind that the JREF is somehow going to weasel out of accepting a challenge test of dowsing or weasel out of paying the prize. It is a common response when the JREF challenges the more high profile paranormal proponent to subject their “abilities” to scientific testing. If you delve more deeply into the JREF site, you will be shown just how easily the human mind can be self-deluded and deluded by others.
The major reason for replying to your last post is that I think James Randi is a great human being, much more worthy of a Nobel Prize than you know who, and it irks me to read aspersions cast upon him by people doubting his commitment to a fair and scientific testing of paranormal claims.
I suggest you take your concerns to the JREF website blog.
Agreed, if I have time and interest, I will take it up on the other blog. I had never looked up the subject before, but when I looked back at my first post I think that’s where the problem is. What I called “dowsing” in that post (and what P. Hilderbrant was talking about), seem to be much different than what you read about on most web pages or on Wiki.
“”” Norm in the Hawkesbury (16:06:19) :
George E. Smith (09:52:25) :
Well my World Atlas places the Maldives to the South West of India; pretty much straight south from Bombay. Thjat is not what I would call south West of Sri Lanka or Ceylon if you will.
Wow!
I know we don’t cite wiki as reliable but ……
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maldives
The Maldives ( /ˈmɒldaɪvz/ (help·info) or /ˈmɒldiːvz/), (Dhivehi: ދިވެހިރާއްޖެ) or Maldive Islands, officially the Republic of Maldives, is an island nation consisting of a group of atolls stretching south of India’s Lakshadweep islands between Minicoy Island and the Chagos Archipelago, and about seven hundred kilometres (435 mi) south-west of Sri Lanka in the Laccadive Sea of Indian Ocean. The twenty-six atolls of Maldives encompass a territory featuring 1,192 islets, of which two hundred and fifty islands are inhabited.[3]
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/LocationMaldives.png “””
Well I don’t just make stuff up; wikki sometimes does.
But on a Rand McNalley world map, the Maldives are shown directly south of Bombay which is on the WEST coast of India, and also directly south of the Lakshadweeo Islands which are also off the west coast of India, and they stretch both north and south of the latitude of the tip of India.
Sri Lanka (Ceylon) on the other hand is off the EAST coast of India; and directly south of Madras. The Maldies are twice as far from the WEST coast of India, as Sri Lanka is off the EAST coast of India.
Your map link clearly shows that.
So Cabo San Lucas in Baja Mexico is south west of the Florida Keys; Right ? Of course it is; there’s just that minor point of the United Sates, and Mexico being in between; like India is in between the Maldives, and Sri Lanka.
Yes, they killed the Freedom Tree. I remember that.
I have been waiting for a followup on this for years.
In a sense, the original article, NOT in a reputable journal, led me into a more intense examination of climate. That led me to stumble on this site back around June 2007 . . .
P.S., I couldn’t care less what arcane beliefs Moerner has or has not.
Newton was an alchemist and predicted the end of the world using Biblical references. He also regarded this as his most important life’s work. IIRC, he also dabbled in astrology.
(He was also a crank and a crackpot.)
So I guess, y’all will be rejecting that calculus garbage and that ridiculous physics claptrap which denies Aristotle and all contemporary consensus . . .
Morner says some vital things and they check out.
There is nothing wrong with attacking a person if that is the fault but if the data is the thing that is wrong attack that. In the Morner case the data is ignored and the person attacked.
Morner does not show modern processing results.
As a result of an item mentioned by Morner I cross checked. He is accurate.
LOD (length of earth day) data is freely available, if preprocessed. For example
http://www.iers.org/products/177/11221/output//30951/eopc04_IAU2000.62-now.txt
Looks like this
http://www.iers.org/plots/FinalsAllIAU2000A-LOD-BULA.png
Here is a plot where I have processed for good time localisation of this event, which tends to play down the magnitude of the event. (above plot shows this event once you know where to look)
The 1982/1983 El Nino shook the earth, has a very strong signal in the rate of spin of the Earth.
http://www.gpsl.net/climate/data/earth-lod-el-nino.png
The 1982/83 El Nino has been described as the largest of the century. If you search you should be able to find animations of the temperature anomaly and will find that as Morner says, including tide gauge data, as it interacts with the land mass of the America energy is transferred between the mass of the ocean and solid earth.
I note papers (post Morner) trying to explain this effect as a wind on the Andies or whatever. Sorry folks, air is low mass. These get accepted as peer reviewed when are in the face of earlier work?
That destroys peer review as a rational process. These people are in different fields of science, hence peer review fails.
Morner also says rather forcefully that change in sea level if it was true would have a very clear effect on LOD and is not there. If anyone wants to estimate this, the water mass has to come from the poles, mainly Antarctica and Greenland, therefore there is a mass transfer from the polar regions where mass has little effect to the middle of a sphere where it has most effect.
It should be possible to calulate a LOD signal based on supposed historic sea level change. That signal must then be present in the measured LOD, and if not it suggests falsification of the sea level record.
Take the claimed satellite sea level trend, if it does not match…
I guess this has long been done but there is silence.
Sea level rise or ground subsidence measurements are relative to the point of observation, which nowadays is a satellite, placed at a stationary (?) orbit point. Good luck on that one. A little orbital decay, instrument error, calibration error, space junk collisions, magnetic storms, measurements in metric that should have been English, and who the hell knows what’s rising and what’s sinking? I don’t have that much faith that NASA can do this stuff right on a tight budget that’s getting tighter by the minute.
Anthony
Do you know happen to know why the University of Colorado has not updated its site http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ in nearly three months now?
Since the data at the site now seems to suggest deceleration in sea level rise, my cynical streak is whispering “are they are withholding data that contradicts their politics?”
In the course of mousing around the internet on this issue, I visited the INQUA website at http://www.inqua.tcd.ie/about.html.
They have a prominent graph on that page titled “Average Northern Hemisphere temperature trend (- 20-year filter; — 100-year filter) during the past 350 years, showing a pronounced 20th-century warming.”
The change in temperature anomaly for the 20th century is purportedly about +2.7 degrees C. The graph is unattributed. Does anyone know the source of this graph?
The reason why satellite sea level measurements agree with tide gauges is that the satellite height is calibrated from the tide gauges (to correct for orbital decay etc.). So the satellite measurement of mean sea level rise should never be presented as independent evidence of mean sea level change -it’s just tide gauge data! Another little fact that they don’t want you to know.
Cheers
Mark,
As can be seen in the picture, the Maldives are essentially completely flat atolls. Therefore, even a couple of inches of sea level rise would flood half the islands’ surface.
That is visual proof that any increase in the sea level is extremely minimal. Any increase is also very slow; there is enough time for the coral to build up, keeping up with any small, slow increase in the sea level.
You don’t need a tide gauge to see that this is another nail in the coffin of the dead AGW/CO2
hypothesisconjecture.Cheers!
Tuvalu has been mentioned a few times. I have some info.
Tuvalu is a group of low-lying islands in the Pacific. The AGW crowd sometimes include Tuvalu in the list of islands threatened by sea level rise. Dr Morner mentions the fact that pineapple plantations on the main island sucked out ground-water, which was replaced by sea-water. But there’s more to it than that.
A few years ago an American TV company bought the right to use Tuvalu’s internet suffix (.tv). They paid $40 million for it. The islanders did what poor people often do when coming into a fortune – they spent it on things they had seen rich people using. Cars, trucks, domestic appliances…. and they built a road all round the main island. They built substantial two-storey houses.
Where did they get the sand for the cement for these houses? From the beaches. Where did they get the hardcore for the road? From the reefs. What would be the effect of cars and trucks thundering round a delicate coral island? You know the answer. A classic case of people unwittingly destroying their own habitat. As mentioned above, Tuvalu is desperately overcrowded (like the Maldives), and the Tuvalu govt thought of a plan: sue the US Government (as the world’s main polluters) for raising sea levels for huge sums of money, and ask countries like New Zealand and Papua New Guinea to take some of their people. The sea-level argument was laughed out of court – as any reader of the previous postings knows, there has been no appreciable sea-level rise in modern times.
There was a programme on BBC about Tuvalu a few years ago. The presenter tried repeatedly to persuade Yuvalu islanders to say they wanted to go away because of the sea level rise, and tried to persuade them to claim that they had seen sea levels rise. Eventually one old chap pointed to an uninhabited rock and said he thought it had been higher out of the water 30 years earlier. That was all the evidence put forward. The presenter showed us the roads, the new buildings, the cars and trucks, but not once did it occur to him to make a link between these things and the sea water problems Tuvalu was facing.
There are similar stories with all the so-called disappearing islands – the Fairfaxes, Carterets, Sunderbans etc. The AGW people are aching for some of these islands to disappear, ut they all remain stubbornly above water.
It’s probably worth noting that Nils-Axel Mörner was given the title “Misleader of the year 1995” by “The Swedish Sceptics (Vetenskap och Folkbildning, VoF)”
http://www.vof.se/visa-forvillare1995
The text is unfourtunatly in swedish.
That doesn’t mean that he can’t be right on this particular issue, but since he’s been known to ignore scientific methodology before, I wouldn’t count on it.