La Niña conditions: still there

Interesting “hotspot” in the Barents Sea. I wonder why?

If you look at the sea-ice coverage at:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.2.26.2009.gif
it is obvious that they are still using the faulty SSM/I sensor to decide what is ice and what is water. No wonder the water is cold in Baffins Bay and Hudson Bay!

Just curious: how do you tell? Just cold water off the West side of South America?
Thanks,
tim

Bummer, no h/t for me 🙁 . I posted this up yesterday in the solar thread…
This looks a little more impressive to me than the conditions back in January, which just looked weak. Also, WTF is going on off the western coast of Africa?
SOI was still very positive last month. With a cooling nino1+2 region, I expect March to cool a good bit (anomaly-speaking) from Jan-Feb.

The nino1+2 region has cooled considerably in just 4 days. Compare the picture above to the one from the 5th: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.5.2009.gif

I can’t claim to understand a lot of what is discussed here….but what is interesting is that no country seems to be interested in discussing the impact of an open shipping passage in the arctic this year.
Ultimately, I don’t think that we skeptics will actually win the the AGW argument, they don’t seem to able to appreciate a rational argument…..but time will. The credibility of science will take a hit, but Al Gore and the media, (and hopefully a lot of politicians) will become jokes. History has not been kind to those who lead the popular delusions and the madness of crowds.

Mike McMillan (06:00:20) :
I suspect the two links go to the same map.
🙂
Have a better link, s’il vous plait?

Oops, Je suis désolé!
Here is the correct link to todays map. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.9.2009.gif

Email received from John Sapper @ NOAA in response to an email I sent him about apparent sensor issues (with regards to sea ice) that is mentioned above:
Hi Fred,
I should probably put a disclaimer on these images about the data not being reliable outside the 70 North to 70 South latitude range.
I don’t think it is a sensor issue. Only that the data are very sparse in polar regions.
Cheers,
John

OT… I am a teacher in england. there is a site for teachers and the public called Physics &Etics Education Project. http://www.peep.ac.uk There is a section on Climate Change. The site aims to be ethical.
Below is the opening page on Climate Change. The facts do not look right to me. the site invites comments. I thought some people on here would be better informed than me.
“Effects of climate change
Introduction
Predicting the exact effects of an increase in global temperature is very difficult. There are many possible physical, social, economic, biological and ecological consequences of Climate Change or Global Warming.
It is expected that greater warming will occur at the poles than at the equator. This will effect atmospheric circulation patterns, which are dependent on the temperature differences between these two areas.
Regional rainfall patterns are likely to be drastically altered, which will change the patterns of world food production.
Parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heatwaves, others will see an increased intensity of tropical storms
Sea levels will rise due to –
Melting of ice (glaciers and polar ice)
The thermal expansion of water
Sea levels are likely to rise by 28-43cm. This rise will cause –
Flooding
Salinisation of soils (increased saltiness)
Coastal erosion
No one is certain how quickly it will rise but for the UK, an estimate of 0.3m to 0.6m by the year 2050. This may not sound like much, but many small island nations are barely above current sea levels.”
I am sure these were the most alarmist figures and were long discredited. But cannot remember detail.

Tim G: The most commonly used area for determining the strength of an El Nino or La Nina is the NINO3.4 area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The NINO3.4 area is bordered by the coordinates 5S-5N, 170W-120W. Here’s a map:
http://i31.tinypic.com/2z67d6s.jpg
The El Nino or La Nina is usually expressed as the NINO3.4 SST anomaly.

TerryS (06:11:06): Thanks
I user: Cut the area and weigh
I think the blue win:
Result: -0.2ºC. (Poor)
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/6119/wuwtsea.gif
mercator projection
Greenland is presented as having roughly as much land area as Africa, when in fact Africa’s area is approximately 14 times that of Greenland.
Alaska is presented as having similar or even slightly more land area than Brazil, when Brazil’s area is actually more than 5 times that of Alaska.
Finland appears with a greater north-south extent than India, although India’s is the greater.
Wiki.
NOAA 03/09/2009 ……….NOAA 03/02/2009
Niño 4……. -0.6ºC…………Niño 4………. -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4…. -0.6ºC…………Niño 3.4……..-0.5ºC
Niño 3…….. -0.7ºC………..Niño 3………..-0.3ºC
Niño1+2…… 0.3ºC………..Niño1+2…….. 0.4ºC

It seems that we will have several la Ninas ahead, all data appeared up to now in WUWT points to that scenario. PDO will be there for 22 years more, the sun still having a long nap, Livingston and Penn waiting for spots to disappear by 2015 or before, sun itself doing small rounds around barycenter, etc.
It seems that from the last big el Nino in 1998 the sea has been losing its heat.
But, the question again arises (because it is really difficult to make forecasts but easier to analyze past events): What did it happen, around, taking into account a time lag of 6 years, say,in 1991-92?

La Nina seems the likely scenario given the telltale warm pool at 160-180e, 150m depth, seen here.http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/ocean_anals/NCC_Equator/2009/Feb.gif

The problem I have with this type of color coded map is that it does not indicate what the anomoly is based on. For instance, there is no way the waters around Florida are cooler than the waters around Long Island. I realize that the map does not indicate temperature but the + or – from an “average” temperature for that particular area. But there is no indication of what the average is for each area or what time frame they are using to get the average temperature to base the anomoly on. Or perhaps I missed that.

Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :
Thank you. Look forward to you next examination of the Barents Sea anomaly.

Re: Bob Tisdale (08:25:40) :
I was bored and had some spare time in work so I assigned each colour in the graphic a temperature value, added them all up and divided by the number of pixels (excluding ice, land and legend pixels) and came up with the average. Its probably the wrong way to do it since the area of each pixel isn’t the same but I thought I’d give a go.

TerryS: I understand what you are doing.
The picture is more blue pixels.
Right:
Only the lack GISS algorithm.
Salutes

It seems as though the conditions are slipping fast though, SOI is dropping as it did last year in March: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
and it has never been above 19-ish since the 08 la Nina,,, so conditions are cool but not as strong as last year, although this year it has persisted for longer.
I also noted that warm spot by Barents sea… it always seems to be there…
Also the horse-shoe cold negative PDO anomaly… fascinating stuff indeed!!
Hoping this year will bring some snow to South Africa like last year :), I’m sure it is at this point loathed by many in America and Eurasia but here we just can’t get enough of it when it rarely does fall!

Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :

The following link is to Figure 1 from that post. It’s the same NOAA map as above, but dated 5/5/08. Same hot spot.
http://i37.tinypic.com/2ld80ty.jpg

It appears in both volcanically active areas (Iceland and Svalbard) You would think that unless they where about to blow they shouldn’t show up on an anomaly graphic. However anomaly graphics may miss this as they are a product of a time period and may shift depending on ocean currents. They get lost in the noise. Only when the currents change for a prolonged period from the anomaly period do they show up as a persistent hot spot. This would explain the southerly Icelandic hot spot.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png

Richard111 (04:54:35) :
“Interesting “hotspot” in . . . ”
Off of the coast of Namibia where the cold Benquela Current is supposed to be. Your post caused me to look and notice. But, of course, I have no idea if this is part of a regular cycle or something.
O/T: (for all) See Climate Audit for a request for funds to rebuild CA’s server.

Richard 111
That hotspot has been stuck there for months and months. I think the measurement system might be flawed or something.

Denis Hopkins above links to “Physics and Ethics Education Project”. Please take a look if you can. Ethicss is exactly the issue here and the PEEP site is clearly slanted.
Here we have an issue that threatens the economy of the world and because of this threatens the lives of literally millions of people. The PEEP site misrepresents the reality opf the situation and pretends for example that hypothetical ocean rise is a more serious than the real life economic dislocation and starvation of tens of millions. It is sick and twisted to pretend their positon is ethical.

MartinGAtkins (11:06:10) :
“Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :
The following link is to Figure 1 from that post. It’s the same NOAA map as above, but dated 5/5/08. Same hot spot.
http://i37.tinypic.com/2ld80ty.jpg
It appears in both volcanically active areas (Iceland and Svalbard) You would think that unless they where about to blow they shouldn’t show up on an anomaly graphic. However anomaly graphics may miss this as they are a product of a time period and may shift depending on ocean currents. They get lost in the noise. Only when the currents change for a prolonged period from the anomaly period do they show up as a persistent hot spot. This would explain the southerly Icelandic hot spot.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png”
MartinGAtkins and Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :
Iris registered some heavy quakes near Svalgaard, three quakes, 6.4 RS

” Mary Hinge (07:30:35) :
robert brucker (06:17:02) :
The above map not only demonstrates La Nina. Correct me if I am wrong, but the horseshoe shaped cold anomaly around the warmer central Pacific represents the negative PDO persisting.
It certainly does, it was interesting that January showed that the -ive PDO was getting stronger http://jisao.washington.edu/p”
Another way is to ask the fishermen off the coast of Chile if they are catching any anchovies.
They do when it cold but not when it is El Nino warm.

O/T but February’s MSu readings out http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_2.txt
Temperatures down slightly on last month but still higher than last year when the La Nina was in full swing.

MartinGAtkins (07:50:32) :
Mary this might be what you want. It’s an time series animation and shows that cold water devoloping around Meso America .
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml

Thanks Martin, I wonder how both sides of Meso America can be tied in, presumably a combination of winds and clouds. An unusual late autumn (SH) La Nina is starting to look very possible now.

The idea is to put all “suspects” in a row in front of witnesses…and see, among other things, if there was some relation “among them” 🙂

Pearland Aggie: Referring to my 16:22:19 comment above, I just checked my site stats and most of my visitors use firefox 3.0, so that might not be it…unless your employer uses an earlier version.

Bob Tisdale. You observed the La Nina of 1998-2001,( 3 months of negative 0.4), may have been a reaction to the 1997-1998 El Nino. But the total number of warm anomaly months was 14, but the cold anomalies stretched out for 35 months. Is it possible the cooling we are seeing now,( PDO,AMO,ENSO, AMSUs), was born in the Super La Nina of 1998-2001?http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Frank

RSS has 0.230 C for February’s anomoly down from 0.322 C in January. — John M Reynolds

The current ENSO forecasts predict that the mild La Nina will turn into a mild El Nino by the end of the year.
These forecasts, however, did not have this new development built-in of -2.0C anomalies at the beginning of the Nino 3.0 region (the anomalies are not really in the Nino 1,2 regions which is a little south of these cold pools – the Nino 1,2 regions would show up as slightly above average right now).
http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/1364/ninoareascli3.jpg
Cold pools in this region almost always indicate strenthening La Nina conditions in the long-run (although it will float back and forth for a period of months).
So, I’m just going with the Trade Wind correlation which indicates the La Nina will strengthen.
The Trades in all regions are above average right now (but not hugely above average) and they have been above average for a long time now which indicates this cold pool will start migrating across the Pacific now and be replaced by even colder water from below and who knows how cold it will get overall.
So, we will just have to watch and it might take a few more months before we can say “wow, a really big La Nina has set in” or whether the forecasts are right and a mild El Nino will develop. The forecast models are not always accurate.

“RSS has 0.230 C for February’s anomoly”
That’s about what I figured based on AMSU daily readings. I had it ~.25.

Bill, are the models set up to assume connections between these various warm and cool pools (from your post it sounds like they are) that predict warmer times ahead? I am wondering if these mini oscillations are not so intricately connected and swing in and out of sync under their own power. That means that the model prediction, based on assumed connections that aren’t there, will not land it’s prediction on the bulls eye. If these pools manage to swing together, and you are right about the trades, the big pond to the left of us could get mighty cold, followed by even further temperature drops as the effects of this cold pond roar over the top of us in North America. What would take the picture over the top would be if the SO and AMO (and any other oscillations out there who want to joing the party) decided to follow suit.

Bill Illis (17:51:45) et al.
I doubt the short term strengthening of the cool anomalies in Nino3 signal a restrengthening of the current La Nina, instead, I think it is this La Nina’s “last gasp”. CPC’s weekly ENSO updates
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
have shown that the 0-300 meter oceanic heat contents (a “leading” indicator of warm and cool episodes) have been steadily rising since late December, which is reflected in the shrinking area of cool anomalies at thermocline depth. The recent appearance of the cooler sea surface anomalies in Nino3 appear to simply be upwelling of the last of the cold water around thermocline depth.

RSS Mar .32
RSS Feb .23
UAH Jan .30
UAH Feb .36
Now that is a major divergence, and opposite sign.

La Niña’s/ El Niño’s are like waiting on the rising up of the “Great Pumpkin” in the pumpkin patch!
You really HAVE to believe in your heart that the great pumpkin is coming … I mean really commit yourself to it, like “IT’S COMING! ”….. like predicting AGW doom and gloom prediction. Hehe!
OH, OK and maybe a SC 24/23/? sun spec or two! 😛 LOL
*EXITING WITH Monty Python “Always look at the bright side if life” : )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo

SSSailor and anna v: Do either of you know whose SST data unisys uses?
Note how in the current unisys SST anomalies that SSSailor linked there is no hotspot in the Barents Sea, North of Scandinavia, but in the NOAA version at the top of this thread there is the hotspot.

Re Phillip_B of 9/03:
“*Nor do we know if climate values have a normal distribution. It appears there are a number of climate oscillations (PDO, AMO, etc) that have warm and cold phases. Therefore, values are only normal in the context of the warm or cold phase, ie as part of that population of values.”
Have a look at all the work on Demetris Koutsoyiannis’ home papge here:
http://www.itia.ntua.gr/dk/
He answers this more comprehensively than anyone else on the planet.
In recognition of his paradigm busting work, he’s been awarded the Henry Darcy Medal 2009 by the European Geosciences Union for his outstanding contributions to the study of hydrometeorological variability and to water resources management.
In brief, he shows that climate values (geophysical variables in general) do not have a normal distribution.
They have, and these are the phrases in common use, Hurst phenomenon, long-term persistence, fluctuations on large scales, clustering, state and time scaling, and heavy (or long) distribution tails, Joseph effect, scaling behaviour, long-term persistence, multi-scale fluctuation, long-range dependence, long memory.
Demetris introduced the descriptor: Hurst-Kolmogorov pragmaticity.
You should read the Abstract of his Henry Darcy Medal address to be delivered in Vienna towards the end of April. You can access from his home page.
Richard

Bob T.
Unisys published data set origen;
CO-OPS Data Sets Offered through OPeNDAP [new window][preview][close preview]
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/noaaport/html/noaaport.shtml
Unisys; “At this time, the data used for most of the images on the site are from the National Weather Service via the NOAAPORT satellite feed. Other data sources include Colorado State’s hurricane archive and USGS elevation data.”
This is a listing of on-line data that is currently accessible through OPeNDAP and it is provided by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services.
opendap.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/dods- Cached -More from NOAA
Satellite info; http://www.nws.noaa.gov/noaaport/html/sat_loc.shtml
These folks serve a paying clientele. I doubt any fudging of the data.
I have observed the Unisys SST Anom for some ten+ years. The hot spot/s occurs quite regularly in the Barents, White, and Kara seas and can persist through-out the northern winter. It’s interesting to note that the northern warm anoms at times appear further to the west. My best guess is a gyre of warmer water. Sea water temperature/density differences are significant in that the water will not mix. A very discrete boundary forms with temperature differences a small as .1deg. f. A seasoned off-shore fisherman will work a .1deg. temperature “Break”. A 4000 ton submarine can float indefinitely “all stop, dead stick” on a .4deg. f layer at any operational depth. The temperature pools remain distinct and independent of current.

Bob Tisdale. I understand the conventional wisdom is the ” Super El Nino of 1997-1998″. My observation is that since 1950, there have been many more El Ninos than La Ninas. Also El Ninos tend to be of steeper/shorter duration. The “Super La Ninas”, of 1954-1957, 1973-1976, and 1998-2001, were all more persistent than any El Nino during that time period. The sum of positive ONI, during 1997-1998 warm event was 22.0. The sum of the ONI, during the 1998-2001 cold event was -29.5. The net effect, as seen in the ONI was -7.5. The AMSU temps. tend to confirm that the rebound from that La Nina, in the subsequent El Ninos, was muted. Possibly due to the depth and length of that La Nina. Interestingly, we have gone 22 months without a positive ONI. Regards, Frank

Sorry that was for tonyb in response to his comment here 🙂

LA NINA is really gaining strength now.
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/attachments/laninamar09.gif
K.R. Frank

Frank Mosher: You wrote, “The AMSU temps. tend to confirm that the rebound from that La Nina, in the subsequent El Ninos, was muted. Possibly due to the depth and length of that La Nina.”
You’ve confused me with that. Here’s a graph of AHU MSU Global Temp and Scaled NINO3.4 SST Anomalies:
http://s5.tinypic.com/14w844.jpg
I’ve scaled the NINO3.4 so that the peaks in global temp and scaled NINO3.4 were approximately the same.
In looking at the graph, if we assume a “Normal Response” of global temperature to an El Nino is dictated by the reaction to the 1997/98 El Nino, the global temp response to the 2002/03 El Nino was muted. I agree with that. However, the response to the NON-Nino of 2003/04 was exaggerated, as was the response to the 2004/05 El Nino. Afterwards, they appear to fall into line again.

Latest image: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.12.2009.gif
Looks like the cold water takes a step to the west. This looks like a decent La Nina forming…