It appears this winter is rough not only in the USA, but elsewhere,. Significant snowfalls were also seen in 2002 and 2004. From Today’s Zaman:
Snowfall immobilizes rural communities in eastern, central Turkey
Cold weather and heavy snowfall brought daily life to a standstill in rural parts of Turkey, forcing closures of rural roads and inter-city routes in the country’s eastern and central regions.
Snowfall was responsible for the closure of a highway on Thursday connecting the Hakkari district, located within the province of the same name, to the district of Çukurca. Several vehicles became stuck in the snow. Highway crews used snow plows to move the snow from the highway and free the vehicles.
Blizzards closed down over 1,000 village roads in the country’s eastern regions, and an inter-city route between Erzurum and Bingöl provinces was reopened to traffic after hours of plowing; however, the Iğdır-Ağrı inter-city road is still closed to traffic.
I’ll bet you considered the title… wait for it… “Frozen Turkey”
The Jet Stream determines everything, what controls it? There is deep jet in the West and it’s going North in the East (US). When will it change, why does it change? NOAA will be correct on it’s prediction of above warming in the Southeast in Jan if it does not change.
Ah. Countries are beginning to quit global warming cold turkey.
Biggest Snowfalls in Southern Europe for the last decade happened in 2005.
But is this usual in that region?
Don’t want to fall into same mind set as the AGW crowd!
the_Butcher (07:21:06) :
“Biggest Snowfalls in Southern Europe for the last decade happened in 2005.”
So? The winter has only started and (for those geographically ignorant Americans) Eastern/Central Turkey is located in Asia.
Denis Hopkins:
It is normal in the mountains of eastern Anatolia, however the snows extend over almost the whole Anatolia which is quite unusual this early in the winter. There is a lot more snow than normal in SE Europe – Western Asia:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2008&ui_day=361&ui_set=2
The reason is the strong high pressure area parked over the North Sea which causes warm Atlantic air to flow north over northern Scandinavia and Barents Sea (hence the slow ice growth) while cold siberian air flows south over the Balkans and Turkey.
How bad is this going to get ?
“World Crops Threatened by Strengthening La Nina Weather Pattern”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aj1nH.0owWcY
The ITCZ/Jet Stream has a tendency to rearrange itself or be rearranged by external forces as those forces see fit. As they are not asking NOAA or other,s for their opinion. I do not see how any future forcast can be other than educated guess based on historical evidence. There is always a curve ball.
Spain’s Baqueira Beret ski resort has reported a new record has been set for snowfall with 435cm (Over 36 feet) of snow having fallen since 29th October.
http://www.skiinfo.com/News/Baqueira-Beret-EESBAQUEIRA-104-en.jhtml?aic=151433
The Northern Blue Mountains of NE Oregon are getting quite a Dump this AM.
-Nothing unusual for say 1950-79, but for the AGW crowd in the area have been strangely ah,quiet. I have about 12′ on the ground in SW LaGrande.Still snowing.
This is a simple return to Cool PDO conditions and a quiet Sun to boot…
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all from the Westernmost tip of Europe.
It hadn’t been this cold for more than fourty years. Yesterday we woke up under a layer of frost like I’ve never seen in these southern parts. Not only the cold is unusual as is the time it has been lasting. Even today as we are under the influence of a severe low front, the mercury is reluctant to go above +14 ºC. The northern regions of the state look like Scandinavia, with the mercury below zero all day round.
Well at least the Russians have been having a warm winter.
Denis Hopkins (07:39:20) :
I have no knowledge of the area, but a related story at http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=162392 ends with
OT: http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=162393 has an update on Istanbul’s earthquake risk. IIRC, it’s on a fault where a series of quakes over the last century or so have been getting ever closer to Istanbul.
Denis,
Remember that this site also discusses weather (note the Categories : weather) and other interesting subjects too. To quote the slogan:
‘Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts’
I know Anthony has mentioned this before, but it’s worth pointing out occasionally.
On topic, Europe has had a lot of snow fall so far this winter. It was the coldest start to winter in 30 years for the UK and the ski resorts throughout Europe have had good, early snow too.
While this is weather rather than climate, it’s interesting such cold snaps still occur. Some AGW believers seem to think that cold, winter weather is a thing of the past!
Satellite and Climate Model Evidence Against Substantial Manmade Climate Change
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D.
December 27, 2008
ABSTRACT
A combination of IPCC climate models, recent NASA Aqua satellite data, and a simple 3-layer climate model is used to demonstrate that the IPCC climate models are far too sensitive, resulting in too much global warming being predicted by those models in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The models’ high sensitivity is probably the result of a confusion between forcing and feedback (cause and effect) when researchers have interpreted cloud and temperature variations in the real climate system. (What follows is a brief summary of research we will be submitting to Journal of Climate in January 2009 for possible publication.)
http://www.drroyspencer.com/article-satellite-and-model-evidence-against-manmade-global-warming.php
Free Energy Oven
Based on the latest Climate Modeling Technology developed at NASA
http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/ipcc_oven.html
Apparently the E.U.’s Carbon Scheme is working. So is ours, and we haven’t even begun it yet.
Well, you all aint seen nothing yet!
According to Global Forecasting System models, it’s going to get a lot worse – especially in Eastern and Central Europe and parts of Western Europe. Models show a bitter and possibly protracted cold snap developing around the 6th of january with temps way below normal. If these models pan out, then they’ll have to get the ice breakers out on the Danube river. Something that aint been done in years.
Global Forecasting System
http://www.wetter24.de/de/home/wetter/profikarten/gfs_ncep/archiv/Europe/pmsl/2008122712/nothumb/ch/1499acbe78.html
1. Select a region
2. On left side click Temperatur (Elemente)
3. Scroll down and pick a time.
Sorry, it’s only in German. Maybe you can find one in English.
Joe Bastardi mentioned the prosepect of a cold snap deep freezing Europe a few days ago.
Having just been to Turkey and returned, I don’t think this is all that unusual as central and especially eastern Turkey are quite high in elevation. The Turks all talk about how severe winter is in eastern Turkey
No doubt a record for the Spanish ski resort, but 435 cm would be roughly 14 feet — rather than 36 feet.
I’m visiting my wife’s people in Rhode Island and can report that quite a lot of the snow in southern New England has melted (all of it that wasn’t moved by man or machine). The newly uncovered line, i.e. the no snow line, will move farther north for at least 36 hours under the influence of warm southerly winds.
Come tell us what it’s like at your house:
http://talkingabouttheweather.com
John X
I can hardly contain my glee! A major La Nina, combined with what is predicted to hit Europe in a couple of weeks, surpasses even my wildest anti-AGW dreams.
I’ve been watching the SST temp charts persistently for the last half year, and now my La Nina hunch is getting confirmed. It’s baaaaaack!
I see some rough days ahead for the AGW fantasists!
Was It not long ago that La Ninas were being written off, and that the Earth would increasingly see a succession of ever more frequent and growing monster El Ninos that would burn up the planet in a ball of fiery hell soon? Unless of course we repented and stopped our sinful use of carbon.
Any sunspots today? Nope!
I can finally begin to taste it. The AGW theory is about to come crashing down. Victory shall be mine!
Subsidized “free” energy.
————————————————————-
Sunshine is Free Energy, Right?
http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/view/2984/218/
“…President-elect Obama and the group of global warming maniacs he has assembled to run the nation talk about creating millions of “green jobs” based on solar and wind energy.”
“But solar and wind energy is virtually free, right? You don’t have to pay anything for sunshine and wind, right? Wrong! If it was free or even affordable, there would be no need for huge government subsidies—your tax money—and mandates on utilities to include solar and wind energy. Without them neither solar nor wind power industries could exist.”
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration released an estimate that, by 2030, solar power might be providing about 5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year to American consumers. By contrast, the agency expects that conventional coal-fired plants will produce 3,351 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. By any comparison available, solar is possibly the most idiotic way to produce electricity. With the exception, that is, of wind power.”
“You are looking at a serious act of madness and deception at the worst possible time.”
Mike McMillan
It is the thought that counts!
Patrick Henry (08:35:53)
ummm…check the calculations…if the snow was 435 cm, that works out to just over 14 feet. 36 feet would be around 1100 cm.
Either way, that is a lot of snow!
I have a friend in Cyprus and he says they are having unsually warm weather.
All of you skeptic wierdoes have lost your wits. We all know that global warming causes global cooling. Face it, after you barely survive your greenhouse gas induced winter freezes, you will suffer a spring of horrible tornadoes and hurricanes followed by massive droughts that will kill what plants are left after they are savaged by a plague of insects. After you eat what little meat animals remain you will collect all of the sea slugs, moss and anything else you can scavange from the sides of old buildings that were submerged when the oceans rose. Thanks in advance for destroying this beautiful earth and ravaging Mother Nature just so you can drive a bigger SUV and use the internet.
Comprehensive weather reporting: The weather will be below normal, near-normal, normal or above normal, guaranteed.
————————————————————-
Mystic Met: A Review of UK Met Office Predictions and Statements
http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/view/2982/218/
“The Met Office is the UK Government’s official Meteorological agency and a key promoter of climate alarmism, which claims that simulation models are now accurate predictors of both global and local effects of stimuli to the climate.”
“… global temperatures in 2007 dropped nearly 0.8 C according to satellite data, one of the sharpest drops on record. In order to hit The Met’s 2014 prediction, there will have to be a large increase over the next few years.”
“2008 is set to be cooler globally than recent years say Met Office and University of East Anglia climate scientists, but is still forecast to be one of the top-ten warmest years.”
“It has been a miserable summer for bugs as well as people…The combined effect of low temperatures and rain has presented Britain’s invertebrates with a double whammy.”
“The latest update to the Met Office winter forecast suggests that although the coming winter will have temperatures near or above average, it is very likely that December will be colder than normal.”
re:Spain’s Baqueira Beret ski resort has reported a new record has been set for snowfall with 435cm (Over 36 feet) of snow having fallen since 29th October.
435cm is a little over 14 feet, not 36 feet.
Still snowing with a reivised forcast of-More Snow. for NE Oregon.I wonder if the NOAA
computers are a little skewed for ah, warming ?…
Mother Nature never seems to tire of tweaking the noses of the climate alarmists. Especially when they stick out so, like Pinnochio’s.
Mike McMillan (10:34:08) :
Well, I could suggest you keep in mind that temperature leads CO2. Since the Carbon Scheme (i.e. word-wide recession) will lead to lower CO2 levels, temperature has to drop now in anticipation of the CO2 decline.
WUWT has a “mirror” at http://omniclimate.wordpress.com/2008/08/20/introducing-john-p-holdren-harvard-authoritarian/
complete with falling snow.
“Douglas DC (12:16:51) :
Still snowing with a reivised forcast of-More Snow. for NE Oregon.I wonder if the NOAA computers are a little skewed for ah, warming ?…”
I know that their forecasts for south Texas kept coming up high, so I have recently switched to Weather Underground.
When the weather is really cold why do alarmists call it “bad” weather? I thought that warming was bad. Shouldn’t all the cold weather worldwide be regarded as “great” weather, since warming is bad. I am a little dense sometimes, maybe someone can help me understand this…
🙂
An out-the-door check shows snow falling all around. Beginning to look a lot like a Berl Ives Christmas card! I just watched a farmer try to get an old rear wheel tractor out of the warehouse driveway so that he could use it to plow snow down at his house. Almost didn’t make it as the rear wheels spun on the packed snow. The jet stream pattern combined with cloud and temperature data indicates we will have snow all day. While the NWS predicts rain, they have that wrong for Wallowa County. The temperature is currently between 22 and 30 degrees depending on where the temp gauges are. No where near the high of 39 predicted by the NWS just a few hours ago. I have noticed that they are adjusting downward as the day progresses.
By all means discuss interesting weather events, but don’t read too much into it with respect to the climate. A lot has been said about the cold start to winter in the UK, but at this moment in time the December 2008 average is within a whisker of the long term December average. Dec 2008 will probably end up being the coldest December since 2001(assuming the recent cold snap sticks around til the end of the month). There were at least 3 Decembers in 1990 which were colder – 2 of them much colder.
So we may also be getting more La Ninas accompanied by a negative PDO and a going negative AMO… things are getting chilly and possibly worse if the sun stays spotless. Let’s hope we also won’t be revisited by a Dalton Minimum, or worse, another Maunder Minimum. I know I’ve been kidding around about those two minimums, but if they really are just around the bend we could be in for a nasty cold several decades.
The Spain quote seems to have generated a stir. The point is that Spain is having record snow, and there is probably no need for anyone to be too distracted by the author’s ability to convert to English units. Spain is a metric country after all.
http://www.skiinfo.com/News/Baqueira-Beret-EESBAQUEIRA-104-en.jhtml?aic=151433
John Finn,
I wouldn’t read too much into the mild weather last week in the UK. The long term forecast for most of Europe and the UK is cold.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
Just published “Guardian” would have to one of the most significant articles published just in time 4 days to go!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/3982101/2008-was-the-year-man-made-global-warming-was-disproved.html
Check out the lone voice in the wilderness of the MSM http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/3982101/2008-was-the-year-man-made-global-warming-was-disproved.html.
We may not have had a white Christmas in England, but we seem to be having a blast from Siberia at the moment.
re: Mike C
Only the facts man only the facts. We are no longer interested in your alarmist carny act, we are not school children that you scare with your propagandist films and moronic chants. (Mr. Matthews wave his hand in Mr. mike’s face) -.0
Just as predicted by the global warming AlGorithms.
EW Matthews,
Save Yourself! Listen to Al Gore and carry every aspect of your life as he directs or we all are going to die!
“a new record has been set for snowfall with 435cm (Over 36 feet) ”
Errm, 435cm is just over 14 feet.
Keep your eyes on China leading up to next month’s Chinese New Year. Last year, 100’s of thousands of holiday makers (all trying to return home for new year festivities) were trapped in snowbound railway stations – some were trapped for weeks.
Last years inclement weather also affected the Asian rice crops and record high commodity rice prices and shortages world wide caused riots in many rice staple countries. Our rice prices are still very much higher than they were in 2006.
China is already receiving icy Mongolian ice blasts. (ironic that another lot of historic mongol invasions the series of great walls can not keep out.)
@Mike C (14:53:58) :
“EW Matthews,
Save Yourself! Listen to Al Gore and carry every aspect of your life as he directs or we all are going to die!”
Naaahhhhh…. Just buy indulg… er, carbon credits from Big Al’s Carbon Credit Emporium and everything will be just peachy. No need to concern yorself with your carbon footprint if you ACT NOW! and send in your money. (Operators are standing by. Free set of Ginsu knives to the first 100 callers.)
Obama’s New Science Adviser Wants to Spread the Wealth Around a Little
http://theamericansentinel.com/2008/12/19/obamas-new-science-adviser-john-chicken-little-holdren-wants-to-spread-the-wealth-around-a-little/
Most chilling about this appointment however, even worse than Holdren’s inquisition-like quest for scientific conformity, may be found in a presentation that Holdren gave at Harvard on November 6, 2007.
Entitled “Global Climate Disruption: What Do We Know? What Should We Do?“ Holdren sets out a plan of action to address global warming.
Starting off making it clear that he feels the term “global warming” isn’t radical enough to describe the present danger and presenting his case for catastrophic warming, he then provides his menu of options to deal with the problem. He says that we must use all options but those that prove “very costly or risky.”
The menu (in the order presented by Holdren):
Limiting Population
Slowing GDP/Person
Expanding Natural Gas
Wind
Biofuels
Photovoltaics
Nuclear Fission
Nuclear Fusion
CO2 Capture
End Use Efficiency
Meanwhile, thousands trapped in snowstorm in India.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Kolkata_/Thousands_trapped_in_-150_snowstorm_in_Sikkim/articleshow/3898706.cms
I’m so happy!
I live in a part of the USA that the Farmers Almanac said would have a mild winter (the southeast), and although we have had some really cold record breaking days, today we got up to 65 degrees. If there was a way I could reach old Al, I would send him a letter asking him to give up on this global warming crap considering how much I enjoyed it today.
If any of you have received email updates from Al concerning our impending doom, you may be interested in my link below. In this email I received, Gore asks people to help him STOP climate change. Is that stupid or what? How do you stop the climate???
Anyway, enjoy… http://giovanniworld.wordpress.com/2008/12/27/al-gore-wants-you-your-money/
If there is one prediction almost guranteed to be correct it is over the next century, billions of people are going to die. Barring any incredible medical breakthroughs, I’d estimate in the range of 6 billion plus.
Mike C; We are not going to eat the animals, we are going to accomplish three tasks at once. We will eat the AGW alarmists, thereby nourishing ourselves, ending alarmists compulsive fretfulness, and silencing ugly and annoying noises. All the best mr.artday.
{sarc on}
All of these events (Turkey Spain, PacNW, NE US, China, etc) are LOCAL phenomena. The fact that they are happening at the same time, and during a negative PDO (with just a hint of La Nina) and abnormally low solar activity is purely coincidental.
Move along, folks, nothing to see here….
(sarc off)
mr.artday,
I was preaching the gospel of Al Gore, you are preaching the gospel of Ted Turner
Pierre Gosselin (11:07:05) : Wrote:
Any sunspots today? Nope!
I can finally begin to taste it. The AGW theory is about to come crashing down. Victory shall be mine!
—————————————–
Mother Nature’s victory I think Pierre. Not sure if it’s a victory for the planet, but it sure is a loss for “Flat Earth” Pachauri and his legion of freeloaders. Maybe the UN can move on to more pressing problems now, like Zimbabwe, for example.
Oh hold on – they’re already punching above their weight throwing haymakers at carbon dioxide and methane.
John Finn,
I wouldn’t read too much into the mild weather last week in the UK. The long term forecast for most of Europe and the UK is cold.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
Patrick Henry
Your link shows that the forecast for some places is for colder than normal weather for some places and warmer than normal weather for other places. In other words – pretty normal.
If I were to hazard a guess I’d say that, globally, the world will be slightly warmer than average over the NH winter months (DJF). I could be wrong if a strong La Nina kicks in – but not by much. To find out we can check the UAH temps at the end of February.
Obviously, we need to quit AGW the same as we quit smoking.
Cold Turkey. (sound of thrown rocks crashing down)
I have noticed that the forcasts around here seem to drop day by day. Two days out, mid to upper 30’s. One day, high 20’s. Same day, 9 above. As for precipitation, forget it. It won’t do what they say. If clear sky is predicted, you had better have a well stocked pantry.
Colorado is like that in normal years.
Mike C,
Al Gore and Ted Turner are both on the same journey. Their just taking different paths.
I meant they’re
We are making up for it here in coastal NC. about the last 2 weeks have been around 5 to 10f above normal.
Pamela Gray (07:13:19) :
Ah. Countries are beginning to quit global warming cold turkey.
Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk! Wish I’d said that.
Mike Bryant,
Al Gore says we will be swimming to Wall Street in 30 years… Ted Turner says we will be cannibals in 30 years.
John Finn (13:21:38) : By all means discuss interesting weather events, but don’t read too much into it with respect to the climate. A lot has been said about the cold start to winter in the UK, but at this moment in time the December 2008 average is within a whisker of the long term December average.
But I do not think it is meant to be, John… isn’t that the whole point of AGW alarmism? A road to hell; not a cruise along an undulating highway of history. (But I guess with three Christmases in one year it’s kinda different there, anyway…)
Ed Scott (15:13:32) : “Obama’s New Science Adviser Wants to Spread the Wealth Around a Little”
Nice points, Ed, I noted it this way on December 22:
A Classic Dichotomy ~ A Shadow of Shame
“Because the truth is that promoting science isn’t just about providing resources — it’s about protecting free and open inquiry…”
US President-elect Obama on his appointment of
“Both Mr. Holdren and Ms. Lubchenco are leading experts on climate change who have advocated forceful government response.”
John Finn,
I’m not quite sure what you are seeing in this map, but most of Europe is headed for some seriously cold weather over the next two weeks.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
More like Al Gore will be pushed out to sea, being confused for a beached whale; and Ted Turner will cannibalize himself.
Patrick Henry (10:00:41) :
John Finn,
I’m not quite sure what you are seeing in this map, but most of Europe is headed for some seriously cold weather over the next two weeks.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
Looks to me like the EU, with the exception of Spain/Portugal will be much colder than normal, whilst Scandinavia and Russia will be much warmer than normal.
Just like you guys have had west coast much colder than normal and east coast quite warm recently.
All very complicated if you want to calculate ‘mean global temperature’!
Indeed, Mike Bryant @ 13:02:15, I use the following argument with AGW believers:
Clearly, you think the planet is too hot; how cold do you think it should be?
Rhys Jaggar (12:22:26) :
‘All very complicated if you want to calculate ‘mean global temperature’!’
That’s easy. Hansen will autoconnect all stations south of the equator to the warmest stations and all the stations north of equartor he will adjust upward because of missing data. LOL
Rhys,
The NCEP maps show two weeks. Week 2 shows essentially all of Europe colder than normal, with the possible exception of northern Scandinavia. They update that map every few hours and have been going back and forth with the Scandinavian temperatures.