UAH Global Temperature dips in August

Unrelated: In Canada, we are going to have a fall Federal election. Of course, everybdy is going to talk climate issues as well. Surprisingly, the electorate seems not have bought into alarmist thinking: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080907/n_canada_reuters/canada_politics_poll_col
Then again, in the world’s coldest country, a little bit of warming ain’t that bad…..

Drops -0.010°C? OMG! Wherez my anorak?

If you choose an arbitrarily cold period as your reference point, then it is still warmer than it was then. Every warm year is evidence, every cold year is just noise. Unless the cooling continues for, let’s say, 100 years, it still won’t be enough to persuade warmists like Hansen. They are driven by belief systems, not logic or science method.
I fear that only another ice age will be enough proof that man does not control the weather or the climate. Even then, we will still be the main culprit, because nature never effects the climate, expect when it does.
Reason, it seems, has taken a long holiday.

Warm temperatures seem not to be unique.
http://news.yahoo.com/story//afp/20080905/lf_afp/switzerlandarchaeologyclimatewarming

The 12 mo. running mean for Aug, 2008 is 0.047
The 12 mo. running mean for Aug 1980 is 0.087
That “Global Warming” is a Bear, eh?

The National Weather Service reports that Alaska has had an AGW summer.
Summer has been one of Alaska’s coldest
High temperatures this season were 3rd lowest on record
By CRAIG MEDRED
cmedred@adn.com
(09/07/08 00:04:10)
Summer is officially over in Alaska, and if you got out in the sun to enjoy both days of it you were lucky.
Those were the two July days the temperature at the offices of the National Weather Service in Anchorage hit 70 degrees or better.
“Those temperatures occurred at the beginning of the month (of July) and were immediately followed by a long stretch of cool and wet weather.
“With only two days above 70 degrees this year, that sets a new record for the fewest days to reach 70,” the weather-watching agency reported Friday.
Add to the lack of heat and sunshine what the agency calls “an astonishing 77%” of days colder than normal, and you get the picture.
This summer was every bit as bad as you thought it was.
Gardens didn’t grow. Salmon returned late. Bees didn’t make honey. Swallows didn’t breed.
And the sunbathing, well, what sunbathing?
On average, Anchorage sees 16 days that hit 70 or better.
Not this year. Not since 1980 has there been a summer less reflective of global warming than this one. Consider these 2008 benchmarks from the weather service that say this month won’t be any better:
Over the course of the past 87 years, September temperatures have reached 70 only 17 times, and two of those 70-degree days came in the same year, according to the weather service.
On average, a 70-degree September day comes along about once every five years, but those days also tend to come in warm years, not years like this one.
Overall, the weather service ranks the summer of 2008 as having the third coolest average high temperatures since record keeping began. Only the summers of 1973 and 1971 were worse. In overall average daily temperatures, 2008 ranked 11th place.
CLOUDS ARE GOOD?
All that stopped this summer from winning a place as coldest ever was, strangely enough, its cloudy grimness.
“What seemed like endless days of cloud cover kept the daytime highs averaging 3 degrees below normal,” according to the weather service. “Inversely, the cloud cover helped to keep overnight temperatures up.
“The minimum temperatures in the summer of 2008 only ranked as the 34th coolest on record.”
Now, there’s something to cheer about. That and the fact that, though the summer left the birds and the bees struggling, the mosquitoes seemed to be doing just fine.
So what can you expect from here on out?
“September climatologically opens with high temperatures around 60 and overnight lows in the middle 40s,” says the local office of the weather service. Followed by October, when temperatures start to really drop, to the 20s and 30s by the end of the month.
That is the normal pattern.
This year?
The National Climate Prediction center is calling for “below normal temperatures along southern Alaska (through September).” Warm waters flowing north into the Gulf of Alaska mean Southcentral Alaska could be back to “normal” — if there is such a thing — by October or November.
That would be just in time for the snow-sport season that lasts about twice as long as summer.
Meanwhile, in case you forgot, the days are getting shorter, too.
——————————————————————————–
Contact Craig Medred cmedred@adn.com or call 257-4588.
——————————————————————————–
2008 numbers
• Anchorage’s average high temperature was 60.9 degrees, 3 degrees below normal.
• The average low was 47.7 degrees, 1.9 degrees below normal.
• The average for the season was 54.3 degrees, 2.4 degrees below normal.
— National Weather Service

In a letter to the editor of a local daily, replying to mine, professor Martin Vermeer of the Technical University of Helsinki, http://www.tkk.fi, shows the 1979 – July 08 UAH lower troposphere temp series with a rising trendline and explains the data as follows: “The straight trendline was calculated according to the least square method, that is how a long term trend – which climate is – should be determined apart from “noisy” data. (…) The underlying trend can only be calculated from a sufficiently long time series. (…) He notes: “I have included MH’s (or Anthony Watts’s, another statistical analphabet) extreme January 07 and May 08. Teh difference in temperature is quite correctly 0,777 degrees. The time difference is, however, puny sixteen months. Hello? This is weather, not climate.” Prof. Vermeer writes that he does not know if I am a liar or if I believe in my climate garbage myself, writing inter alia that “the trend 2001-2008 is falling and, as ocean currents have shifted to their cold phase, this is a sign that the 60-70 year cycle has turned once more.”
I feel honoured being mentioned in the same sentence as Anthony! -:)
Prof. Vermeer can be reached at martin.vermeer@tkk.fi. I am sure he would be glad to discuss statistics.
Magnus Hagelstam

The next 12 – 24 months are the key. If temps bounce back up, then the recent drop may be no different than the 1999 period. If temps continue to fall, than I will become a full fledged skeptic.

It seems sad to me that even the sat figures have to be adjusted in some form and that then develops a difference between UAH and REMSS.

Isn’t this La Nina and wasn’t it predicted?

Phil,
The 2007-2008 La Nina ended several months ago, and wasn’t predicted. Hansen forecast a “Super El Nino” for 2007, not La Nina.
Summer has been one of Alaska’s coldest High temperatures this season were 3rd lowest on record
http://www.adn.com/news/environment/story/518517.html
Hopefully Biden will walk straight into that minefield.

I’LL BE JUST FINE, SAYS PLANET
(from the Daily Mash)
THE planet Earth has dismissed claims it is in danger from global warming, stressing the worst that could happen is the extinction of the human race………
click below for more (SATIRE- parental advisory):
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/i%27ll-be-just-fine%2c-says-planet-20080306774/

Just to add to my last comment…
UAH 1999 through August (average): +.042
UAH 2008 through August (average): -.023

The Hadley Sea Surface Temperatures anomaly for August is 0.369. This is higher than July (0.354) and also the first time for a year that the sea temperature was higher than the equivalent month a year before (0.282).
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadsst2gl.txt

I thought I’d bake some cherry pie for you.
Using the monthly anomalies:
For the colders the trend from May 1997 is -0.078 per century.
For the warmers the trend from November 1991 is 2.268 per century.
Using August anomalies only:
For the colders the trend from 1995 is -0.4 per century
For the warmers the trend from 1984 is 1.440 per century
Of course this all depends on me correctly using the LINEST directive in OpenOffice.
If your were a gambling man person and, starting in August 1979, bet $1 every year that the following August would be hotter than the current one then you would be up by $3.

McGrats,
I agree that the Nina went neutral in April time frame. There are some in the weather community that did predict the Nina six months in advance, but I won’t quibble with you on that. It is also making a comeback at the subsurface level, and it will be apparent to all that La Nina has returned in the October timeframe.
Tucker

Yep, I’ve been watching NOAA’s weekly ENSO updates. and from the best I can tell they are predicting a weak la nina to reform (on their maps at least), but in their print they say that ENSO neutral condition are supposed to persist through the fall, so who knows?
NOAA is also saying they predict the lower 48 to be average or slightly about average this fall, but the darned thing is that NOAA adds a warming trend bias into their reports, where they used to offer both w/ Global Warming and w/o global warming. I’m betting that it will be cooler than NOAA expects, and if this general cooling trend continues into February or March, then we are looking at a cold winter. This might be good news, because it might stall political action during the new president’s first 100 days. With luck it will persist for another 2-3 years until we can elect a new congress.

Certainly looks like the beginnings of a La Nina to me. I have no idea why the El Nino of 98 is counted as evidence of AGW and the Mt Pinatubo depression of temps in 91-93, which artificially enhances the upward curve of temps are not
adjusted out’ of the temperature readings.
Here’s todays ocean SST — note the huge upwelling of cooler water off almost the entire pacific NW, Western Canada area – some temps in the purple ( -3C below normal) That and look at the temps in the Carib.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.8.2008.gif
Compare it to just 4 days ago
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.4.2008.gif
or two weeks ago
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.25.2008.gif

From the NOAA animation, one cannot tell whether a strong El Nino is developing or whether La Nina is coming back.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/anom_anim.html
We may have to wait for around Christmas which is when El Ninos and La Ninas really solidify themselves.
But if you speed up the animation (as fast as your computer can handle), you can see that the trade winds have strengthened again and strong trade winds are the real driver of La Ninas (while weak trade winds allow El Ninos to develop). It almost appears that the Atlantic is developing its own La Nina (for the first time) as well.

Bill you’re right:
up date 09/08/2008 (NOAA)………..NEUTRAL…….LA NADA…..LA NOTHING
Niño 4………. -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4……. -0.1ºC
Niño 3…………0.4ºC
Niño1+2…….. 0.7ºC
SOI: + 14,9
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3

And yet September has been rather nice. My tomatoes are finally ripening.

McGrats (16:33:52) :
“However it is my understanding cetain [snip] (a name claimed by the anthropogenics in certain areas) are now claiming that the now “deceased” LaNina never ended and may be gaining momentum. ”
Er….it went to a neutral phase and is now re awakening, hardly deceased, more of a summer snooze! For deceased you probably should read this…..
http://www.davidpbrown.co.uk/jokes/monty-python-parrot.html
Reply: Derogatory terms for AGW promoters as well as skeptics are not allowed ~ charles the moderator.

F Rasmin (04:27:46) :
Time to put on the DVD “Miracle at Headingly” then!

“F Rasmin (04:27:46) :
To all of the posters from the UK (where I hail from though a long time ago). The sun is now at over 56 degrees above the horizon here in Brisbane at noon now AND is shining every day! Yippee!”
Definitely uncalled for, we only had 3-4 days. Not only did I have the heating on this weekend, I even started draughtproofing.

Mike Bryant (05:25:36) :
I agree! Well, if you can have an Austrian exbodybuilder and actor (in the loosest possible sense of the word) then why not, where do I sign! Better that than a return to the dark ages with a creasionist president. When the science books in the schools are placed on the pyre who will light the first match?
On a different note and wildly off topic but within the remit of the blog, I would like to say farewell, in case the LHC does something it shouldn’t. If you think they all know exactly what there doing and that any black-hole formed will be too small and contained in a ‘controlled environment’ read this arcticle from the Sunday Times, dated last April, reassuring isn’t it!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1626728.ece

I note that the latest NSIDC data points indicate a recovery from the falling trend and a larger gap wrt last years data. It would now seem unlikely that 2008 will see a new low for Arctic sea ice. It will be interesting to track the ice regrowth in the coming months so I hope NSIDC will provide the same attention to ice growth as they have to ice melt, as well as the same publically available trend analysis.

“It will be interesting to track the ice regrowth in the coming months so I hope NSIDC will provide the same attention to ice growth as they have to ice melt, as well as the same publically available trend analysis.”
Ice growth this winter is likely to follow a similar path to last year due to the decreased salinity and resulting raised freezing point. The resulting ice is thinner than multi-year ice and melts more readiliy as a result.
A new low in ice extent is still possible http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Even if it doesn’t quite make it to the record low it is certainly the largest area of ice loss recorded from the Arctic due to the higher levels of ice this spring.

Anthony,
This is a total nit but FWIW I only see three dips when looking at the graph. When counting valleys, it’s uncommon to count the hillsides as well, let alone counting only one hillside. June was part of a rise to a July peak following a May low.
It would be more accurate to say this is the fourth month below zero.
—-
The cooling period between 2001-2008 is relatively flat. This is the longest that temperatures have been “stable” since 1979. It certainly looks like the hill has been crested and we are now on the downside.
Also, I seem to recall looking at a temperature graph with a 100 year baseline a couple of years ago (from the plaque at Badwater, I think). Using 30 year lines, 2000 seemed to be cresting. More evidence — at least in my mind. I’ll see if I can dig it up.

Hi John,
sorry, I’m not getting into a religious discussion, not in the scope of this blog. I was using the point that I wouldn’t trust anything on a scientific level that came from someone that believes in creationism when all the scientific evidence supports evolution through natural selection. On the other hand I wouldn’t trust a christian statement coming from someone that does not believe in Christ.
God and science are not mutually exclusive, belief in creation over evolution most certainly is.

Mary:
You can always find somthing to be afraid of, if you look hard enough. Whether it is a creationist in the White House, or black holes in the LHC, or insufficent ice in the arctic. The challenge is to discern which items are worthy of concern, and which ones are not.
If we allow the media to “create” items of concern each day in order to generate enough interest for the current news cycle, we are falling for the “crisis of the day” mentality, that does not allow us to ignore the clutter, and focus on the issues that are really “life-or-death” issues.
As far as a creationist in the White House, we have had them there before, and we will have them there again. I would rather have someone in that position, thinking that they will have to answer for their “life-or-death” decisions, to an all-knowing God.

OK… Hey! The weather is great in Texas today!
Mike Bryant 🙂

To Dr “How much heat is being extracted from the oceans from the hurricane activity?”
I don’t know if this is a meaningful amount in the whole scheme of things, but the tracks of the last three hurricanes, Gustav, Ike and Hanna, have clearly left a cool track in Carribean ocean temps (-1.5C) which is very evident in this map.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anoma.9.8.2008.gif

Mary Hinge…
You do realize, don’t you, that the vast majority of U.S. presidents have been creationists? Including some in the very near past?

Mary,
Not to worry about the LHC. If a black hole is created that reaches a ‘tipping point’ and eventually consumes the earth, it won’t be instantaneous, or so says a Physicist at NSF I was talking with. He said it would take 2-3 months for the BH to grow to sufficient size to break up the planet. Of course it would most likely suck up most of the atmosphere within a couple of weeks, but that should still leave you with time to make your goodbyes. 🙂

La Nada: Isn’t it interesting that 5 successive 3-month <-0.5 Equatorial SST indicies were required to declare La Nina, and yet conditions change and prior to the first set of numbers indicating its ‘end’ coming out at the end of July it’s declared over.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.shtml
The forecasts tip back to La Nina by October.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
We are still in negative territory. Perhaps the JAS number will sneak above zero but I bought new plugs and a battery just in case.

Mary…
I already produced the stats for that statement in a previous comment above. Here it is again, according to UAH lower tropospheric data, which this thread/article is about.
UAH 1999 through August (average): +.042
UAH 2008 through August (average): -.023
Globally, 2008 has been cooler than 1999 so far, even though that La Nina was stronger and maintained longer. Explain?

Feel free to correct me (and I’m sure someone will), but according to my calculations, both UAH and RSS have 2008 (so far) as the coolest year since 1993.

Is another la nina forming?
SOI in rapidly rising +15
SST and winds falling in line
This would be consistent with predominant La Ninas in a PDO switch to cooling phase\

The GISSTEMP anomaly for August was 0.39.
Following a few small changes to recent months that gives the average for this year so far as 0.375, which is lower than for any year since 2000.

“Not to worry about the LHC. If a black hole is created”
If they manage to create the Higgs Boson, which is the most coveted goal, that would not result in enough energy to turn over your car’s engine.

Jared (09:40:20) :
You should really look at the big picture and stop relying on cherry picked comparisons between two differing events. Also try simple maths, use the mean for the three months you get a better picture. While you’re at it try and make some attempt to answer my particular points, which you haven’t even touched on in your response. You don’t have the right to ask me a question until you have at least touched on the points I made. To paraphrase Monty python again
MP-“This isn’t an argument, it’s contradiction”
JC “No it isnt, if I argue with you I must take up a contrary position”
MP “Aaaah, but an argument is a collective series of statements intended to establish a proposition, it isn’t just saying “No it isn’t”
JC- “Yes it is”
MP- “No it isn’t”
So unless you listen to someones points don’t bother asking any questions, just jump up that cherrypicker of yours and sing and dance,do what you like, ’cause no-one is listening to you.

Mary Hinge (09:15:26) wrote: “Hi John, sorry, I’m not getting into a religious discussion, not in the scope of this blog.”
Good grief! This coming from the very person who began the entire discussion with her diatribe against Palin!
Mary continues: “I was using the point that I wouldn’t trust anything on a scientific level that came from someone that believes in creationism when all the scientific evidence supports evolution through natural selection.”
Could you please list some of the evidence? As far as I knew, evolution is still just a theory, a theory which may have substance on one hand, and not on another. You also have to remember the evolution theory was hammered into everyones’ skulls by the Lamestream Media (ABCNNBCBS) in much the same manner as they are hammering AGW into everyones’ skulls.
Mary also wrote: “So unless you listen to someones points don’t bother asking any questions, just jump up that cherrypicker of yours and sing and dance,do what you like, ’cause no-one is listening to you.”
Actually Mary, it seems people are listening to you… in much the same manner as one would listen to a good comedian. Your arguments and arrogant attitude don’t wash.
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com

Mary….
No, my entire argument is not based on the fact that 2008 has been cooler so far than 1999. How about the fact that when ENSO effects are removed from the temperature record, there is a flat or slightly declining trend with EVERY temperature metric from 2001 onward?
And the 1998 El Nino ended long before 1999 began, so to claim that temperatures in 1999 were still be affected by the El Nino cannot be supported, that is just your speculation.
This is all a waste of time with you, anyway. You are obviously a die-hard AGW believer who will twist any facts to fit the theory you hold so dear. I dare you to actually open your eyes and look at all the evidence. I did, and now I realize how foolish it is to think AGW is the only explanation for climate change.

Mary Hinge (01:34:00) wrote: “As for Jack Koening, any credibility you MIGHT have had has gone out of the window and exposes your non-scientific mindset.”
Up to your old tricks Mary? Attempt to re-frame the question in your terms and then use circuitous arguments to avoid the real issue? That doesn’t cut it Mary… at least not here. As far as credibility is concerned, I have more in my little finger than you could ever muster.
Mary continued: “Evolution IS REAL, it’s happening, it has happened (if creationism can be taken seriously it has to explain why God bothered to ‘design’ trilobites, ammonites, pterosaurs, eurypterids and the like, did he just get bored with them and made them extinct!!)”
I’m not too certain what all that diatribe is about, but once again you can’t seem to comprehend what I said. I never said evolution wasn’t real. All one has to do is look at our changing bodies to realize almost everything evolves. One glaring example would be the generally increasing heights of children from one generation to another.
Mary continued: “The whole creationist argument is a joke and Palin, by supporting the study of ‘Intelligent design’ in science lessons falls into this category.”
Nice try at ignoring the issue Mary, but “creationism” and “intelligent design” are two different issues. Your ignorance in the matter is telling!
Mary also wrote: “You show your ignorance in science by explaining it away as a theory, you should know that science is based on theories and that some theories have been very thoroughly tested and have been strengthened to such a point that no-one of serious scientific thought can deny them.”
So by stating the above, you posit that because some theories have been tested and strengthened, evolution must be one of them. Huh? Where did you study logic, Mary… Disneyland? This is an old trick right out of Saul Alinsky’s “Rules for Radicals”: make any convoluted claim and then state that anyone skeptical of that claim is a nutcase. Nice try, but once again you failed!
And FINALLY, Mary conclude: “If you want the evidence supporting evolution then I can give it to you, as can any serious scientist on this blog could.”
Wonderful! Then why don’t you do it? Wasn’t that what I asked for in the first place?
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com

An interesting reply but your ignorance somehow managed to shone through!
“One glaring example would be the generally increasing heights of children from one generation to another.”
This has nothing to do with evolution in any form but everything to do with diet and health. I feel sorry for you in that you have exposed your lack of understanding of basic science for all to see.
Also you seem ignorant of religion to, but don’t be too hard on yourself. Creationism is the process of giving life by an intelligent designer so how can Creationism be different from Intelligent Design?
My point again is that you cannot trust someones scientific judgement if you make such glaring errors in such basic science.
For the record I have not been ‘ignoring the issue’ or ‘avoiding the real issue’, I have gone straight to the issue but you don’t like it and start spouting nonsense!
To repeat your error “I never said evolution wasn’t real. All one has to do is look at our changing bodies to realize almost everything evolves. One glaring example would be the generally increasing heights of children from one generation to another.” You are saying you agree with the theory of evolution because of this particular ‘fact’! This is the exact parallel to your climate beliefs, YOU BELIEVE IN IT DESPITE THE ‘FACTS’ TO BE PLAINLY WRONG!!
Maybe you can understand why I shouldn’t go into giving a full evolutionary discussion, let’s dicuss: Genetic inheritance, mutations, phenotype, genotype, resource competion, fossil records, DNA analysis, monophyly, heterosis, heterochrony, group selection, bottlenecks, genetic load, fitness, extinction, environmental adaptation, epistasis and good old Darwinism, or even neo-Darwinism. There is of course also adaptation, sexual selection, niche adaption, altruism and speciation to go through. Maybe your head is hurting, why don’t you have a lie down…you deserve it; or why not grow some cojones and enjoy the discussion!

Attention – There has been enough creationism and religion on this topic by now. Charles has previous warned people off the topic as well. There are a number of blogs which regularly host this sort of debate that may be better suited to your conversation. Lets move on people, nothing here to see. – Anne

Mary,
The fact is, I presented evidence that this year has been cooler than 1999. You disputed that. I provided the evidence to show that this was indeed the case. Then, you moved on to dismissing this as meaningful…you never answered my original question, posed to all AGWers here: what is your explanation for how cool 2008 has been?
And sure, if you compare the 1989 La Nina to this one, that one was cooler. I agree that there has been warming since then. However, that one reached a peak strength much stronger than 2008’s, so I’m not sure why you think it is more comparable. Anyhow, my point is not that there hasn’t been warming since the 1980s, just that there has been little or no warming since the end of the 1990s. All the data points to that conclusion. So the real question is: why? I’m not saying it disproves AGW, but it sure wasn’t expected either.

Mary…
It is true the oceans and thermocline circulation play a large role in climate…from the data I have seen (ARGO), though, it appears the oceans have cooled just a bit since 2002. So we shall see if that is a short term blip or the start of something bigger.
It definitely will be interesting to see what happens over the next year. If temperatures this winter (Nina or not) dip cooler than last winter, that to me will be a stronger sign that the -PDO and/or low solar activity is having a real effect on the climate.