Increased hurricanes to global warming link: blown away

How about an apology to Bill Gray from Hillary Clinton?

“I think it is safe to declare the “Increased hurricanes to global warming link” as DEAD.”
What I think you mean is that the science behind the idea that there is no link between ‘global warming’ and increased Hurricane intensity is now settled science and is reflective of the ‘consensus science. Henceforth anyone espousing the opposite view shall be named a ‘denier’ and shall be subjected to public ridicule and ad hominem attack 🙂

Thanks for posting this. This yet another milestone that is bringing the AGW house of cards crumbling down.
According to one German website, the real climate change is now taking place IN THE MEDIA!
http://www.schmanck.de/KlimaPresse.html
Many of the listed links are in English. It’s a respectable compilation.

You can almost start to list the defectors:
1. Kerry Emmanuel
2. Mojib Latif
3. and now Tom Knutson
I know…I’m being premature.

What I believe is hilarious is the fact that now they are saying that “global warming” will reduce the number of storms. Uhm, so I guess at this point it is safe to say that 2008 is going to have a larger number of storms, right?

Anthony, this will be retroactively fitted into Mr. Hansens model to prove they actually predicted that AGW would cause a decrease in Hurricane activity. “Oh what a tangled web we weave”…..

“How about an apology to Bill Gray from Hillary Clinton?”
And from Judy Curry.

On a deeper level both this and Emmanuel’s paper could just be highlighting that no matter how refined you make the models they still can’t tell you much about the real world.
Which is why the models need to be validated. There is a lot of time and money being spent and we have no idea if we are just “grinding smoke.”

Al Gore and AGW apostles are trying their best to enact Goebbles’ political philosophy:
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”-Joseph Goebbels

I think it has been speculated that hurricane frequency would decrease for some time now. I believe the IPCC even mentioned it:
“Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current models for that period.”
This new study just adds to the evidence that frequency will decrease.
On the intensity front, Emanuel mentioned this:
“A new technique for deriving hurricane climatologies from global data, applied to climate models, indicates that global warming should reduce the global frequency of hurricanes, though their intensity may increase in some locations.”
In other news, an article titled “Are Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Really Increasing in Number, Intensity?” was in the April edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Here are a few quotes pulled out by Craig James over at his blog:
“it is improbable that the number of tropical cyclones has increased since 1966.”… “In addition, the rate at which storms become hurricanes appears to have decreased”. Also, “little evidence is found that mean individual storm intensity has changed, although the variability of intensity has certainly increased. This increase is probably due to changes and improvements of intensity measurements through time..”

There are very good reasons why a warmer world would have less storms and less severe storms. The polar regions would warm much more than the tropical regions, meaning there would be less temperature difference between the equator and the poles. This means a shallow temperature gradient, which is the engine that drives the large low pressure systems that turn into large tropical storms. That is what his model is telling him. It is a simple concept, unless you already have your mind made up, and you discard anything that disagrees with your pre-supposion. Could it be some actual science is breaking out, in the AGW theory support network?
I don’t think we will have to worry about it anyway. We might see stronger storms from a cooler climate. I am sure they will find a way to blame that on “climate change”.
It is fun to watch the climate forecasters get in the mud and argue. It reminds me of the three blind men arguing over what an elephant looks like.

Please, please! Just what on Earth (or off it!) are ‘warmer’ temperatures and ‘colder’ temperatures? And is that big photograph behind Al Gore obtained from a camera behind him on the floor pointing up?

The Realclimate comments are absolutely hysterical. “I had taken the hurricane slides out of my global warming presentation, but I’m going to put them right back in after reading this. Thanks!”
I have never seen a more sycophantic group than that. Hysterical and sad at the same time.
It has been a bad year for the warmies.

I remember reading about the chances for increased shearing winds just after Katrina. If forget if it was Landsea or Gray who mentioned it then, but having grown up in Miami the effects of upper-level shear is legendary to old hurricane watchers. Pray for shear….
Gore, fool that he is, cited on NPR two weeks ago the cyclone that hit Burma as some kind of harbinger of more to come (invoking his usual trope of the horrors of AGW), even though the seas in the Indian Ocean have been cooling for some time now.
Here in the USA, we have more and more tropical storms listed in the Atlantic Basin every year because more tropical depressions are being named, small, short-lived disturbances that would never have been named 20 – 30 years ago. The old-timers know this.
It’s like increased tornado detection due to the advent of doplar radar, increased lightning strike detection due to satellite sensing, and increased sunspot detection of “Tiny Tims” due to new satellite technology. Take those with the classic case of formerly suburban weather stations now surrounded by urban heat islands.
As detection technology improves and standards expand we are suffering from standard inflation (ala grade inflation). Rather than applying historical trend adjustments in a good, sensible way, the field instead lacks a consistent standard by which it normalizes data for historical trend analysis.
Without some sense of what the old standards were and how the new detection methods differ, all the trend metrics are going to go up, up, up! The result should be obvious to anyone, that current trend analyses may be completely misleading, in terms of risk assessment and climate modeling.
So when climatologists anticorrelate historical sunspot counts against climate, they are using the worst metric possible. The 10.7 cm flux from ionosphere measurements is a better metric, but it’s historic value is limited where it can be only roughly imputed from Wolf #’s & SSn.
There’s a difference between wisdom, knowledge and information. But when the information itself is apples and oranges, what we have is garbage data.

‘I don’t think you’ll find the IPCC asserting anywhere that hurricanes would increase in frequency. In fact, from the AR4 FAQ 10.1’ ~ Stokes
Just curious… but why did it take them until the fourth report, over a period of 20 + years, to tell us that ‘some’ computer models agree with what Dr Gray told us ten years ago?

Thatr still begs the question: Dr. Gary told us rightly ten years ago that this would be the case. Why did we have to put up with ten years of worthless hype? Almost sounds like the ipcc was trying to sell us a bill of goods.

Before global warming, it was your mother that caused your ingrown toenail and all that. In fact, I kinda like this turn of events. When my children start blaming me for their failed attempts at an independent life and want to come back home, I can tell them its the fault of GW and to write to Al Gore for lunch money.

Report The Truth about Global Warming-Armageddon apocalypse
In the future the only thing to eat will be other people
By Willie J McDonald
July-1983
Non Fiction
Armageddon apocalypse and global warming are one in the same Global Warming Armageddon and apocalypse what ever you want to call it can be stopped Please read this report In the name of God the world must listen to me before its too late Please do not trust the US government in this matter. Unlike the US government I don’t have any conflict of interest Im an expert on the subject of global warming The American governmental scientists are knowingly lying to the world about global warming Telling the world green house gases are causing global warming so the oil companies can continue to pump crude oil The truth will cause a world wide economic collapse but the alternative is far worse The real reason for global warming is the earth’s orbit around the sun is decaying in other words the earth is moving closer to the sun, and the moons obit around the earth is decaying Its moving away from the earth at 4cm each year Two leap seconds had to be added to the atomic clock, because the earths rotation has decrease in speed Some scientists are saying the days will increase from 24 hours to 25 hours in a day This is due to the suns light and rays covering more and more of the earths surface and thats due to the earth moving closer to it. Unfortunately these trends will continue to worsen. Ive studied this phenomenon since July-1983 warning people of the coming destruction and death People called me crazy at first I understand the weather was normal at that time but now the weather is beginning to support my findings December 2007 Houston Texas is experiencing warm sunny winters a record high of 81degrees Eventually Houstons winters will completely disappear as time goes on
Houston, Texas (latitude- 29.75 north/ longitude-95.36) is the perfect place to observe global warming, what’s occurring in Houston in the winter will occur with other country in Houston’s latitude-29.75 north, and 29.75 south of the equator during both of their prospective winter. South Africa: 29 degrees south is experiencing warmer, than usual winters, and tornadoes in winter, which is very unusual for that region. Houston’s winters are being replaced by warm sunny days, and that not normal for Houston, Texas. The sun is over the southern hemisphere now, and in the past the sun’s direct, and peripheral heat, and rays stayed within the southern hemisphere, away from the equator, and the outer edges of the polar ice caps. The sun is thousands of times larger, than earth. The earth has moved, so close to the sun that it’s peripheral rays, and heat has spread over the equator from the southern hemisphere to the southern part of the northern hemisphere, where Houston, Texas is located, and the sun’s peripheral heat, and rays has spread over the outer edges of the south pole, and is melting the ice. The same thing will occur, when the sun reaches the northern hemisphere. The peripheral heat and rays will spread over the equator, and heat the northern part of the southern hemisphere, and melt the ice on the outer edges of the North Pole, Just ask the governments of Greenland, Iceland, and the city of Alaska-USA about their melting ice packs. Talk to the people of Venice Italy about their rising ocean.
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This trend will continue, until all the ice in both polar ice caps is melted, and until winter no longer exist in both hemispheres, back, and forth melting one polar ice cap at a time. The ice is melting faster in the summer months, faster than it can reform (build up ) in the winter months. There is enough ice in both polar ice caps to flood 95% of the existing land mass of this planet. The warmer the winters, the hotter the summers. The direct heat, and rays from the sun will intensify as the earth move closer, that’s the area of the earth the sun is stationed directly over. I grew up in Houston, Texas. I remember the hottest part of the day use to be 12:00 noon, now its 5:00 o’clock in the after noon.
This is more evidence of earth’s orbit is decaying. December- 2007: The thunderstorms, and floods that occurred in the States of Oregon, And Washington State (latitude: 45-49 degree N.)was suppose to by a snowstorm, after all its winter, but the atmosphere was too warm to support a snowstorm, so a thunderstorm was created instead, the flooding was extraordinary. January-2008 tornadoes touch down in the mid-west of America, causing death, and destruction in the millions of dollars. Febrary-2008 many tornadoes touched down, and killed dozens of people.
The only different between a snow storms, and a thunderstorms is the temperature of the upper atmosphere. The position of the sun to the earth determines the temperature of the upper atmosphere. This is the type of weather that will dominate in the future, floods, and tornados during the winter months, when these storms are not suppose to develop. The weather will go from one extreme to the other, from flooding to droughts in various parts of the United States, and the world. Food production will gradually come to a halt, because of the weather. As I said in the past global warming has nothing to do with C02 gases, R-12 gases, CFC gases, a hole in the ozone, the sun going nova, methane gases leaking from the ocean’s floor, or green house gases, as you will see in the future. Global warming will not be reverse by ridding the atmosphere of these gases.
Some of these gases have polluted the atmosphere since the industrial revolution in America, and Europe. In the early 20th century, before emission devices were installed on automobiles, and trucks the air in many cities was, so polluted it blotted out the sun, And cause breathing problems. There was no global temperature increase during this time period. Global warming is in its beginning stages, and will gradually get worse. It will not occur over night, and the winters will diminish gradually, over the decades. June-1978: I went to the mountains of Big Bear, California. As I looked down the city of Los Angles, California. The greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles, trucks, and industrial activity was, so bad a very noticeable thick haze formed reducing visibility by 30%.There was no noticeable spike in temperature in Los Angeles, California, during that period. Carbon dioxide is poisonous to all mammals, including humans. If the levels of C02 gases are, so high why there haven’t been reports of carbon dioxide poisonings, such conditions require hospitalization. The reason the earth is moving closer to the sun the molten core of this planet is cooling, because it’s not getting enough crude oil (fuel).
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The oil companies drill into an oil well to extract the crude oil. These oil wells are actually self- pressurizing fuel cells, and over time the crude oil extraction process used by the oil companies releases the pressures needed to force the oil into the outer core. All oil wells (self pressurizing fuel cells) must be capped off, and the pressure within them brought back to normal, so the crude oil can be forced into the outer core. This will raise the temperature in the core, and strengthen the earth’s magnetic field, and push the earth away from the sun. The higher the temperature in the core the stronger the earth’s magnetic field, and the cooler the temperature in the core, the weaker the earth’s magnetic field. The core is cooling, because it’s not getting the fuel (crude oil) it once did, before man discovered crude oil, and new uses for it.
Everything that generates energy, or expends energy needs fuel, and the earth isn’t any different from any other machine. People, and animals derive their energy from food, plants derive their energy from water, and sun light, automobiles from gasoline (a crude oil derivative), and thunderstorm, snowstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes derive their energy from electro-magnetic energy generated by the earth itself, these storms are electro- magnetic phenomenon. The earth (a machine) generates a magnetic energy field from the inner core, and it is derived its energy from combustion of crude oil in its outer core. I was told by other scientist there’s not enough oxygen in the core for crude oil, and/or its components to combust. This is not true, the earth’s core residual temperature is between 5000 to 7000 degrees Celsius, and that’s hot enough to melt steel, and its hot enough to combust crude oil, and its components, come in contact with the core, inspite of the lack of oxygen in the core. Besides one of the components of crude oil is oxygen.
This is no time to be superstitious, global warming (the apocalypse) has nothing to with the wrath of God, it is cause by the ignorance of man. The oil extraction process used by the oil companies are compromising this planet’s fuel system. People take the earth’s magnetic field for granted, because it’s invisible, and silent. The magnetic field holds people, object, and the oceans to the surface of earth. It keeps the air we breathe from escaping into space. It protects life on this planet from the harshness, vacuum, poisonous gases, and radiation of the surrounding universe. It protects life on the surface of this planet from sun flares, and it locks the earth in orbit around the sun, locks the moon in orbit around the earth, and keeps the earth at a safe distance from the sun, and moon. Contrary to popular belief the electro- magnetic energy in thunderstorms, winter storms, hurricanes, and tornadoes, etc. are not generated by sunspots, neither, sun flares, nor energy from deep space striking the earth’s magnetic field. The energy in these storms are generated by the earth magnetic field. The earth acts as a generator’s armature. The sun rotates the earth at one thousand miles per hour, the earth’s magnetic field brushes against the magnetic field of the surrounding universe. The electricity that’s generated is trapped in the earth’s atmosphere, and dispersed throughout the earth’s atmosphere, where it gathers water from the atmosphere, and form thunder storms, and from thunder storms into other weather phenomena, tornados, and hurricanes, etc.
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The electro- magnetic energy in a thunder storms can carry hundreds of million of gallon of water, and weigh hundreds of millions of metric tons. That’s just some of the things earth’s magnetic field does. The earth is a machine, a self-contained biosphere designed specifically for our life form, and fueled by crude oil. These fuel cell (oil wells) can be re-pressurized by igniting the methane gases in them. In fuel cells thought to be empty, such as spindle top in Beaumont, Texas. It will be necessary to pump in a mixture of air, and methane gas, and ignite the mixture. The gas will expand, when ignited creating the necessary pressure to force the remaining oil into the core. These fuel cells extend for thousands of miles, from the upper crust down to the outer core of the planet, the oil companies can only drill less, than ten miles down.
There are millions of gallons of crude oil remaining in these fuel cells, and they are located all around this planet for even heating of the core. Uneven heating of the core will result in a shift of the earth’s axes, and the earth has shifted on its axes by 15 degrees (As reported by NASA).
Normalizing the flow of crude oil to the core will increase the temperature in the outer core, and the outer core heats the inner core, which generates the earth’s magnetic field. If the pressure in these fuel cells (oil wells) were placed back to normal pressures, and left alone the temperatures in the outer core will stabilize. My report is the only way to save all life on this planet. More evidence that large quantities of crude oil are combusted, and sustain the high temperatures in the core, every conceivable by-product, and/or residue of crude oil is ejected from volcanoes all around this planet, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, the tremendous pressure in the core, and the dark smoke that’s ejected from volcanoes, etc. Volcanic eruptions in the past occurred more frequently, and they occurred in various parts around the planet, and were much more powerful, than present day eruptions.
The materials ejected from volcanoes originate from the outer core. There is a point of no return, because it will take decades to reheat the core back to normal temperatures. Volcanoes are the means by which the outer core rids itself of spent fuel, and volcanoes regulate the pressures in the outer core, volcanoes extends from the surface of the planet down to the outer core. Volcanic eruptions in the past were far more powerful, than volcanic eruptions in present days. This is more evidence the core is cooling. The higher the temperature in the core, the more frequent, the more wide spread, and the more powerful the eruptions. The cooler the temperature in the core, the less frequent, and the less violent, and the less wide spread the eruptions will occur. Many volcanoes are lying dormant, and haven’t erupted in many decades.
Crude oil is capable of generating temperatures found in the core, after all crude oil is a hydro- carbon, and hydro-carbons are used to melt, and manufacture steel There are three types of hydro- carbons, crude oil (a liquid), methane (a gas), and coal (a solid).
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The tremendous pressures ejected from volcanoes are due to the combustion of crude oil in the outer core. The gases in all hydrocarbons expand, when ignited, and will create pressure in an enclosed vessel, such as the core of this planet. There are two different diagnoses, but only one right solution. Please don’t close your mind to my findings. The one thing that frightens me the most, is the lies the leading scientists are telling the world, and the world believes the thing these scientists are knowingly lying about. Once these scientists notice their plans to reverse global warming is failing. These scientist will come up with another explanation for global warming, and convince the world this time they got it right, and the world believe them. I say again eliminating green house gases will not reverse global warming, and/or stop the earth’s orbit around the sun from decaying.
My solution is the only correct one. The leading scientists are wrong about everything, cleaning the air will not reverse global warming. Please keep an open mind. If we choose the wrong solution we will leave our grandchildren and great grandchildren a future that doesn’t exist, It will be a hellish existence. In the future the weather will be, so harsh it will be very difficult to grow plants, and to raise farm animals, what I’m trying to say is in the future the only thing left to eat will be other people. The leading scientist will think of another excuse for global warming, when they realize they are wrong, and their plans are not working. Please don’t let them do that, time is running out! If the earth past the point of no return, or if the core temperature drops below the flash point of crude oil, all is lost. Don’t focus on the fluctuation in temperature from year to year, focus on the weather trends, and the trends are its getting hotter, and the ice in both poles are melting. Global warming is in its beginning stages. Don’t just focus on your local weather focus on the world weather, and temperatures. Its important you see the big picture.
This report has been printed in the Journal of American Science. July- 2008. Volume-4/ number-2, and Volume-5/ number-1. Copy Right-2008
Mr. Willie J. McDonald
2601 Holman St.
Houston, Texas 77004-USA
832-889-2058
Cdnld30@gmail.com wmcdonald65@yahoo.com
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