Tag Archives: Sunspot

Study predicts the sun is headed for a Dalton-like solar minimum around 2050

Method uses the Ap geomagnetic index, which has been in a slump since October 2005: The Hockey Schtick tips us to a paper published today in Advances in Space Research predicts that if the current lull in solar activity “endures … Continue reading

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Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 268 Comments

Sunspot group AR1890 takes direct aim at earth

May produce a dangerous X-class flare that could directly impact Earth Steve Davidson writes: Right now, today, one of the largest sunspot groups of Cycle 24 – AR1890 – is pointing nearly strait at Earth. AR1890 has already produced a … Continue reading

Posted in Solar, solar flare, Spaceweather | Tagged , , , | 78 Comments

October 2013 Sunspots: Largest jump in Solar cycle 24 so far

Looks like a double peak for cycle 24 is forming As many WUWT readers have noted in comments, October 2013 has been significantly more active than the previous several months, and we have not seen this level of activity since … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , | 133 Comments

Like ‘the pause’ in surface temperatures, ‘the slump’ in solar activity continues

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has updated their monthly graph set and it is becoming even more clear that we are past solar max, and that solar max has been a dud. “The slump” continues not only in sunspot … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 665 Comments

Solar cycle 24 continues the slump

Sunspot count is virtually unchanged from last month : It seems possible that we’ve seen the double peak, and it will be downhill after this.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 450 Comments

The solar cycle is still slumping

It is looking more and more like a double sunspot peak for solar cycle 24. Sunspot count is down again:  A similar drop occurred in radio flux.

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , | 226 Comments

Sun produces four X-class flares in two days

Above: note the four separate events in the last two days – from the WUWT Solar Page (From NASA’s Spaceweather.com) When the week began, the sun hadn’t unleashed an X-flare all year long. In only two days, sunspot AR1748 has … Continue reading

Posted in solar flare | Tagged , , , , , , , | 65 Comments

Solar cycle update – sun’s magnetic activity still in a slump

Despite some small upticks on sunspot and 10.7cm radio activity, the magentic activity of the sun is still bumping along the bottom. A slight uptick was seen in sunspot count.  A similar slight uptick occurred in radio flux.

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , | 137 Comments

December solar activity in a big slump

The December data from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is in, and it looks more and more like the peak of solar cycle 24 has been reached, and that we are now past it. Even with documented problems like “sunspot … Continue reading

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Counting Sunspots and Sunspot Inflation

Guest post by Dr. Leif Svalgaard The official sunspot number is issued by SIDC in Brussels http://sidc.be/sunspot-data/ . The [relative] sunspot number was introduced by Rudolf Wolf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Wolf  in the middle of the 19th century. He called it the ‘relative’ … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , | 205 Comments

Solar cycle 24 continues weakly, perhaps weakest of the space-age

NOAA SWPC has updated their plot page of solar metrics, and the slump continues. At spaceweather.com Dr. Tony Phillips writes: SO THIS IS SOLAR MAXIMUM? Forecasters have long expected the Solar Max of 2013 to be the weakest of the … Continue reading

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The sun – still slumping

The latest solar cycle update graphs have been released by the NOAA SWPC today, and the anemic cycle 24 continues: The current count isn’t keeping up with the prediction line in red. Not only is the sunspot count low, so … Continue reading

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A quiet cue ball sun

Source: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_4096_4500.jpg A couple of people have noticed (as did I) that the sun is essentially blank.

Posted in Astronomy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 110 Comments

“firecracker” sunspot turning towards earth – possible large solar flares

Sunspot AR1476 may have some surprises for us in the coming days, and I hope it isn’t a Carrington type event. It has already launched two CME’s yesterday. From NASA’s Spaceweather.com: A pair of solar eruptions on May 7th hurled coronal … Continue reading

Posted in Solar, solar flare | Tagged , , , , , , , | 52 Comments

Potential for large solar flares and CME’s may be with us again soon

Readers may recall my reports on the CME’s from massive sunspot group 1429, seen below. It seems the sunspot group continues to live, and has unleashed another massive Coronal Mass Ejection. It will rotate into Earth view again soon.

Posted in solar flare | Tagged , , , , , , , | 60 Comments

NOAA: Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely

An X-5 class solar flare just occurred from region 1429, the large active sunspot group seen below. NOAA Bulletin from the Space Weather Prediction Center: 2012-03-07 01:03   Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely

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First Estimate of Solar Cycle 25 Amplitude – may be the smallest in over 300 years

Guest post by David Archibald Predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 was a big business. Jan Janssens provides the most complete table of Solar Cycle 24 predictions at: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html Prediction activity for Solar Cycle 24 seemed to have peaked … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 251 Comments

Solar cycle update: sunspots down, Ap index way down

The NOAA SWPC monthly solar cycle update has been published here, and after a big spike last month, the sunspot count is down again. There’s an even bigger drop though in the Ap geomagnetic index, as seen and discussed below … Continue reading

Posted in NOAA, Solar | Tagged , , , , , | 150 Comments

Solar activity on the upswing, big sunspot rotating into view is producing x-class solar flares. Large CME expected soon, may hit earth.

From Spaceweather.com: New sunspot 1302 has already produced two X-flares(X1.4 on Sept. 22nd and X1.9 on Sept. 24th), can another be far behind? NOAA forecasters put the 24-hour probability at 20%. The sheer size of the active region suggests the … Continue reading

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Easterbrook on the potential demise of sunspots

THE DEMISE OF SUNSPOTS—DEEP COOLING AHEAD? Don J. Easterbrook, Professor of Geology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA The three studies released by NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network this week, predicting the virtual vanishing of sunspots for the next several decades and … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 475 Comments

BREAKING – major AAS solar announcement: Sun’s Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity

“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill said. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.” Update: see the official press release here – “All three of … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , | 270 Comments

The smallest sunspot cycle in two hundred years

I missed this earlier this week from NASA, I got a bit distracted with other things. Sixty two – that’s the new number from Hathaway on April 4th, have a look:

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , | 92 Comments

The minimal solar activity in 2008–2009 and its implications for long‐term climate modeling

This is a new paper in Geophysical Research Letters by C. J. Schrijver, W. C. Livingston, T. N. Woods, and R. A. Mewaldt. WUWT readers may recognize Livingston as the creator of one of the datasets we regularly follow graphically … Continue reading

Posted in Cosmic rays, Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , | 204 Comments

NASA’s Hathaway revises the sunspot prediction down again

From the Marshall Space Flight Center, Dr. Hathaway’s page: Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , | 208 Comments

NASA Sun Spot Number predictions revised again

UPDATE: see my animation of NASA solar forecasts since 2004 below. WUWT Commenter J Gary Fox writes: The solar cycle 24 predicted sunspot maximum has been reduced again – predicted peak down to 59 Max. (1/3/11) http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml “It’s tough to … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 187 Comments

The sun is still in a slump – still not conforming to NOAA “consensus” forecasts

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) produced their monthly solar cycle progression update yesterday. The news is not encouraging. We’ve had a drop in solar activity again in December, The sunspot count is lower, but the really worrisome thing is … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , | 256 Comments