Tropical Storm Andrea Tracking

TS Andrea, the first named Atlantic storm of the season continues to organize, but so far has only maximum sustained winds of ~60mph. Florida will get quite a bit of rain in addition to winds. The real issue will be what happens after it crosses the Florida peninsula and re-emerges in the Atlantic. Right now…

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A Strong Surge in Overconfidence

Update: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. says via email “the fake photo is perfectly appropriate” and adds this update to his report on Grinstead from last year: Today Grinsted et al. have another paper out in PNAS in which they follow up the one discussed below. They make the fantabulous prediction of a Katrina every other…

A Reply to Hurricane Sandy Alarmists

A suggestion the Great Gale of 1821 was worse than Hurricane Sandy, and Alarmists are wrong to suggest otherwise. Guest post by Caleb Shaw While I am often humbled, when it comes to predicting the weather, I did correctly predict the fact that, when the inevitable happened, and a hurricane did clobber the East Coast,…