Raising the bar on statistical significance

I was searching the early edition of PNAS for the abstract of yet another sloppy “science by press release” that didn’t bother to give the the title of the paper or the DOI, and came across this paper, so it wasn’t a wasted effort. Steve McIntyre recently mentioned: Mann rose to prominence by supposedly being…

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Met Office Statistics Questioned

Is there any statistical evidence that global temperatures have changed since 1997 ? Guest post by Clive Best The UK Met Office seem determined to stand by their claim made in  response to the David Rose article in the Mail on Sunday: ‘The linear trend from August 1997 (in the middle of an exceptionally strong…

New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization

From the told ya so department, comes this recently presented paper at the European Geosciences Union meeting. Authors Steirou and Koutsoyiannis, after taking homogenization errors into account find global warming over the past century was only about one-half [0.42°C] of that claimed by the IPCC [0.7-0.8°C]. Here’s the part I really like:  of 67% of…

Natural Variability in the Widths of the Tropics

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In my previous post, “Does This Analysis Make My Tropics Look Big?“I discussed a paper called “Recent Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion primarily driven by black carbon and tropospheric ozone”, by Robert Allen et al, hereinafter A2012. They use several metrics to measure the width of the tropics—the location of the…

Does This Analysis Make My Tropics Look Big?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There is a new paper in Nature magazine that claims that the tropics are expanding. This would be worrisome because it could push the dry zones further north and south, moving the Saharan aridity into Southern Europe. The paper is called “Recent Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion primarily driven by black…

A mathematician’s response to BEST

Doug Keenan, who readers may remember doggedly pursued and won some tree ring data that Queens University held back, was asked to comment of the BEST papers by the Economist. He posted up the full correspondence, including his critiques. There’s some interesting things in there. Since Dr. Muller and BEST want full transparency, in that…