Tag Archives: Solar cycle

MSM finally gets that the sun’s magnetic field has flipped

While we’ve known about this for quite some time at WUWT, going back to August 2013, the story is now starting to make the rounds in the MSM. And, NASA has created a cool visualization of the event. Video follows. … Continue reading

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Posted in Solar | Tagged , | 166 Comments

Study predicts the sun is headed for a Dalton-like solar minimum around 2050

Method uses the Ap geomagnetic index, which has been in a slump since October 2005: The Hockey Schtick tips us to a paper published today in Advances in Space Research predicts that if the current lull in solar activity “endures … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 268 Comments

Sunspot group AR1890 takes direct aim at earth

May produce a dangerous X-class flare that could directly impact Earth Steve Davidson writes: Right now, today, one of the largest sunspot groups of Cycle 24 – AR1890 – is pointing nearly strait at Earth. AR1890 has already produced a … Continue reading

Posted in Solar, solar flare, Spaceweather | Tagged , , , | 78 Comments

September doldrums – solar slump continues

While many science related government agencies are shut down (NASA GISS is deemed ‘non-essential’ for example) some remain open due to statements like this: Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 233 Comments

Like ‘the pause’ in surface temperatures, ‘the slump’ in solar activity continues

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has updated their monthly graph set and it is becoming even more clear that we are past solar max, and that solar max has been a dud. “The slump” continues not only in sunspot … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 665 Comments

The Climate-Grain Production Relationship Quantified

Guest essay by David Archibald There is now consensus that the Sun has now entered a quiet period. The first paper from the solar physics community predicting the current quiet period was Schatten and Tobiska’s 2003 paper “Solar Activity Heading … Continue reading

Posted in Agriculture, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 222 Comments

Solar cycle 24 continues the slump

Sunspot count is virtually unchanged from last month : It seems possible that we’ve seen the double peak, and it will be downhill after this.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 450 Comments

The sun is about to have a flipping magnetic field reversal

We’ve been watching the progress on the WUWT solar reference page in this plot from Dr. Leif Svalgaard: Solar Polar Fields – Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at source … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar, Space | Tagged , , , , , | 216 Comments

Newsbytes: Sun’s Bizarre Activity May Trigger Another Little Ice Age (Or Not)

From the GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser “Weakest Solar Cycle In Almost 200 Years” The sun is acting bizarrely and scientists have no idea why. Solar activity is in gradual decline, a change from the norm which in the past … Continue reading

Posted in Newsbytes | Tagged , , , , , , , | 329 Comments

The solar cycle is still slumping

It is looking more and more like a double sunspot peak for solar cycle 24. Sunspot count is down again:  A similar drop occurred in radio flux.

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , | 226 Comments

CET cooling in line with solar model prediction

Yesterday, WUWT carried the headline: Coldest Spring In England Since 1891.  This essay offers what could be an explanation for it. Judge for yourself. – Anthony Guest essay by David Archibald Back in 2006, I published my first paper in … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 93 Comments

Solar cycle update – sun’s magnetic activity still in a slump

Despite some small upticks on sunspot and 10.7cm radio activity, the magentic activity of the sun is still bumping along the bottom. A slight uptick was seen in sunspot count.  A similar slight uptick occurred in radio flux.

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , | 137 Comments

Sunspot Cycle and the Global Temperature Change Anomaly

UPDATE: The author writes: Thank you for posting my story on Sunspots and The Global Temperature Anomaly. I was pleasantly surprised when I saw it and the amount of constructive feedback I was given. Your readers have pointed out a … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , | 166 Comments

February solar data shows the Sun to still be slumping – but NASA says ‘twin peaks’ may happen

The data from SWPC is in, and it is lethargic at best. Sunspot numbers took a hit, down to about 42,  a delta of ~50 lower compared to the red prediction line. 10.7 cm solar radio flux took a similar … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , | 196 Comments

How long to the 24/25 solar minimum?

Guest post by David Archibald Climate has real world consequences, and those operating in fields that will be affected by changing climate bring a different perspective to the problem of predicting what will happen. Bill Fordham, advising the grain industry … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 81 Comments

Update on Solar Cycle 24 – Hathaway’s latest predictions show smallest sunspot cycle since 1906

The sun is currently showing two significant spots, though activity is generally quiet. Current SSN is 30, and Sunspot AR1667 (on the left) is in decay, and it is no longer crackling with C-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI First the … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , | 153 Comments

NASA on the sun: ‘…tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate.”

Researchers have considered the possibility that the sun plays a role in global warming. From NASA GSFC:  Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate In the galactic scheme of things, the Sun is a remarkably constant star.  While some stars exhibit dramatic … Continue reading

Posted in Solar, Spaceweather | Tagged , , , , , , , | 320 Comments

Neutrons and the 1970s cooling period

Note: the original title Solar Neutrons and the 1970s cooling period was unintentionally misleading as Dr. Svalgaard points out in comments: What produces Solar Neutrons? the title of the post is misleading. The cosmic rays are protons, not neutrons, and … Continue reading

Posted in Agriculture, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , | 139 Comments

New paper demonstrates that climate responds to short and long-term changes in solar activity

(Via the Hockey Schtick) A new peer reviewed paper published in The Holocene finds a significant link between solar activity and climate over the past 1000 years. According to the authors: “Our results suggest that the climate responds to both … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , | 143 Comments

The sun – still slumping

The latest solar cycle update graphs have been released by the NOAA SWPC today, and the anemic cycle 24 continues: The current count isn’t keeping up with the prediction line in red. Not only is the sunspot count low, so … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , | 89 Comments

The Sun has changed its character

Guest post by David Archibald A number of solar parameters are weak, and none is weaker than the Ap Index: Figure 1: Ap Index 1932 to 2026 Figure 1 shows the Ap Index from 1932 with a projection to the … Continue reading

Posted in Solar, Spaceweather | Tagged , , , , , , , | 176 Comments

A quiet cue ball sun

Source: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_4096_4500.jpg A couple of people have noticed (as did I) that the sun is essentially blank.

Posted in Astronomy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 110 Comments

NASA June 2012 Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

Compiled by Joe D’aleo WeatherBell via NASA MSFC The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current … Continue reading

Posted in Solar, Spaceweather | Tagged , , , , , , , | 83 Comments

NASA/Hathaway’s updated solar cycle prediction – smallest in 100 years

…the predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years (Updated 2012/05/01) From: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , | 134 Comments

New paper in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics demonstrates that planets do not cause solar cycles

Planetary effects are too small by several orders of magnitude to be a main cause of the solar cycle. Argiris Diamantis writes in with this tip: Professor Cornelis de Jager from the Netherlands has put a new publication on his … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 325 Comments

Solar Update March 2012

by David Archibald Figure 1: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle 1976 – 2012 The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle is currently at 67°. Solar maximum occurs when it reaches 74° – so a little bit further to go.

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 93 Comments

The sun is still in a funk: sunspot numbers are dropping when they should be rising

The sunspot number for February from SIDC is down again, to 33.1 Here’s the source of that data: http://sidc.oma.be/DATA/monthssn.dat So far, cycle 24 is significantly lower in SSN number that the last three cycles, in addition to having a delayed … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 137 Comments

Do Latest Solar Studies Confirm Upcoming Global Cooling?

Guest post by Matti Vooro I fully support the findings of  Jan –Erik Solheim , Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum and their very recent paper called The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24  dated … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 192 Comments

Quantifying the Solar Cycle 24 Temperature Decline

Guest post by David Archibald Three wise Norwegians – Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum – have just published a paper entitled “The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24”. It is available online … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 210 Comments

Headlines over solar cycle 25 and potential global cooling

There’s a story about solar cycle 25, and a potential “mini ice age” in the UK Daily Mail by David Rose that is making headlines today, even hitting the Drudge Report. The headline is: Forget global warming – it’s Cycle … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 186 Comments

First Estimate of Solar Cycle 25 Amplitude – may be the smallest in over 300 years

Guest post by David Archibald Predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 was a big business. Jan Janssens provides the most complete table of Solar Cycle 24 predictions at: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html Prediction activity for Solar Cycle 24 seemed to have peaked … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 251 Comments

Solar-Terrestrial Power Update

By Paul L. Vaughan, M.Sc. The amplitude of Earth’s zonal winds is modulated by the solar cycle. Here’s a concise visual update based on the latest data: LOD’ = rate of change of length of day

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , | 204 Comments

Hathaway’s November Solar Prediction

By David Archibald Joe D’Aleo asked for my comments on NASA’s James Hathaway’s latest solar prediction, available here: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml When I read May 2013 for solar cycle maximum, I thought “That is my prediction”. But then at the bottom of … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 125 Comments

BREAKING – major AAS solar announcement: Sun’s Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity

“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill said. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.” Update: see the official press release here – “All three of … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , | 270 Comments

American Astronomical Society to make ‘major’ solar announcement

From Space.com Astronomers will unveil a “major result” on Tuesday (June 14) regarding the sun’s 11-year sunspot cycle. The announcement will be made at a solar physics conference in New Mexico, according to an alert released today (June 10) by … Continue reading

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