Tag Archives: Radiative forcing

Radiative Forcing, Radiative Feedbacks and Radiative Imbalance – The 2013 WG1 IPCC Report Failed to Properly Report on this Issue

Guest essay by Roger A. Pielke Sr. Main Points 1. The difference in ocean heat content at two different time periods provides the global average radiative imbalance over that time [within the uncertainty of the ocean heat measurements] 2. This … Continue reading

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Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 151 Comments


The new RCPs are not projections, probabilities, prophecies or pathways – they might possibly be potentialities. Guest essay by Barry Brill The IPCC begins with science: “In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | Tagged , , , , | 54 Comments

Updated climate sensitivity estimates using aerosol-adjusted forcings and various ocean heat uptake estimates

Guest essay by Nic Lewis The Otto et al. paper has received a great deal of attention in recent days. While the paper’s estimate of transient climate response was low, the equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity figure was actually slightly higher than … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 113 Comments

Volcanoes: Active, Inactive, and Retroactive

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Anthony put up a post titled “Why the new Otto et al climate sensitivity paper is important – it’s a sea change for some IPCC authors” The paper in question is “Energy budget constraints on … Continue reading

Posted in Volcanoes | Tagged , , , | 82 Comments

Even More about Trenberth’s Missing Heat – An Eye Opening Comment by Roger Pielke Sr.

Roger Pielke Sr. was quoted in David Appell’s recent article Whither global warming? Has global warming slowed down? over at the Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media. That portion of the article reads: About 90 percent of this … Continue reading

Posted in Ocean Heat Content, Trenberth's missing heats | Tagged , , , , , , | 94 Comments

The effectiveness of CO2 as a greenhouse gas becomes ever more marginal with greater concentration

The political target of limiting the effect of Man-made global warming to only +2⁰C can never be attained. Guest essay by Ed Hoskins According to well understood physical parameters, the effectiveness of CO2 as a greenhouse gas diminishes logarithmically with … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 155 Comments

Dispelling myths about global warming

CO2 did not drive the rapid warming of the 20th century. Story submitted by Stan Robertson The difference between a good idea and a bad idea is often a quantitative matter. For example, many people would think it a good … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide | Tagged , , , , | 139 Comments

Yet another study shows lower climate sensitivity

Global warming less extreme than feared? Policymakers are attempting to contain global warming at less than 2°C. New estimates from a Norwegian project on climate calculations indicate this target may be more attainable than many experts have feared. Internationally renowned … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 187 Comments

IPCC Chapter 11 – Bankruptcy Protection

Guest post by David M. Hoffer IPCC reports AR1 through 4 were published in relative obscurity. ClimateGate and the emergence of the blogosphere as the primary forum for debate of the science and public policy intersection changed all that. AR4 … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak | Tagged , , , , , , , | 97 Comments

The Forcing Conundrum

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach. For all of its faults, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) lays out their idea of the climate paradigm pretty clearly. A fundamental part of this paradigm is that the long-term change in global … Continue reading

Posted in Radiation | Tagged , , , , , , | 441 Comments

Inconvenient conclusions in a new climate and land use paper

Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. sends word of this new paper now in early release at the Journal of Climate. The paper suggests humans have strong impacts on the local climate, but not always through the pathways commonly touted as being … Continue reading

Posted in Land use land cover change | Tagged , , , , , | 32 Comments

No wonder ‘climate’ wasn’t mentioned in the presidential debate

While my favorite tweet this morning called climate “the third rail” (i.e. don’t touch the electrified rail or it will kill your presidential bid, there’s even a Wiki entry on it) the reality seems to be simply that it is … Continue reading

Posted in Global warming, Politics | Tagged , , , , | 62 Comments

Some thoughts on radiative transfer and GHG’s

Guest post by Reed Coray The following example illustrates the issues I have with reasoning often used to argue that increasing the amount of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere will increase both the Earth’s surface temperature and the Earth’s atmosphere … Continue reading

Posted in Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , | 469 Comments

Important New Paper on the Nocturnal Boundary Layer, Mixing, and Radiative Forcing as it applies to GHCN weather stations

From Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. comes word of an important new paper that shows how the air near the ground (boundary layer) is highly affected by sensitive nighttime dynamics, which show up in the Tmin of weather station data (GHCN … Continue reading

Posted in GHCN, Surfacestations paper, UHI, Weather_stations | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 65 Comments

Preview of CMIP5/IPCC AR5 Global Surface Temperature Simulations and the HadCRUT4 Dataset

Guest post by Bob Tisdale INTRODUCTION As a preview of the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) due out in September 2013, in this post, we’ll take a brief look at the multi-model ensemble mean … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 62 Comments

Ramanathan and Almost-Black Carbon

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach My thanks to Nick Stokes and Joel Shore. In the comments to my post on the effects of atmospheric black carbon, Extremely Black Carbon, they brought up and we discussed the results of Ramanathan et … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, Carbon soot | Tagged , , | 127 Comments

Omitted variable fraud: vast evidence for solar climate driver rates one oblique sentence in AR5

Guest post by Alec Rawls “Expert review” of the First Order Draft of AR5 closed on the 10th. Here is the first paragraph of my submitted critique: My training is in economics where we are very familiar with what statisticians … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 514 Comments

Sense and Sensitivity II – the sequel

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Joel Shore, who has been questioning my climate-sensitivity calculations, just as a good skeptic should, has kindly provided at my request a reference to a paper by Dr. Andrew Lacis and others at the Goddard … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 206 Comments

Feedback about feedbacks and suchlike fooleries

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Responses to my post of December 28 about climate sensitivity have been particularly interesting. This further posting answers some of the feedback. My earlier posting explained how the textbooks establish that if albedo and insolation … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 244 Comments

Tisdale schools the website “Skeptical Science” on CO2 obsession

On the SkepticalScience Post “Pielke Sr. Misinforms High School Students” By Bob Tisdale OVERVIEW I rarely visit the website SkepticalScience, which is run by proponents of anthropogenic global warming, because most of their posts are the simple parroting of the findings … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 91 Comments

Spencer finds “the Big Picture” on cloud feedback

I’ve Looked at Clouds from Both Sides Now -and Before by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. …sometimes, the most powerful evidence is right in front of your face….. I never dreamed that anyone would dispute the claim that cloud changes … Continue reading

Posted in Spencer-Braswell and Dessler | Tagged , , | 148 Comments

1 K or not 1 K? That is the question

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley I am very grateful for the many thoughtful postings in response to my outline of the fundamental theoretical upper bound of little more than 1.2 K on climate sensitivity imposed by the process-engineering theory of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 191 Comments

Monckton’s letter to the journal Remote Sensing

Christopher Monckton writes in email: I sent the attached commentary to the journal a week back and have not had so much as an acknowledgement. So do feel free to use it. It is reproduced below. Readers may recall of … Continue reading

Posted in Peer review, Spencer-Braswell and Dessler | Tagged , , , , | 117 Comments

New peer reviewed paper: clouds have large negative cooling effect on Earth’s radiation budget

Oh dear, now we have three peer reviewed papers (Lindzen and Choi, Spencer and Braswell, and now Richard P. Allan) based on observations that show a net negative feedback for clouds, and a strong one at that. What will Trenberth … Continue reading

Posted in clouds, Spencer-Braswell and Dessler | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 315 Comments

Aerosol sat observations and climate models differ “by a factor of three to six”

From the University of Michigan something I think Dr. Roy Spencer will be interested in as it is yet another case where models and satellite observations differ significantly. See the figure S1 at the end of this article – Anthony … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols | Tagged , , | 109 Comments

Pielke Sr. on Climate Science Myopia

By Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. There is an article Global warming lull down to China’s coal growth by Richard Black of the BBC which perpetuate an inappropriately narrow view of climate science. The article headlines with the text “The lull in … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, Carbon dioxide | Tagged , , , , | 75 Comments

The planes! The planes!

From Dr. Roger Pielke Senior: (with apologies to Tattoo) There is a news article on March 29 2011 from Rueters titled Aircraft condensation trails criss-crossing the sky may be warming the planet on a normal day more than the carbon dioxide … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 113 Comments

Pielke Sr. on Zeke’s zinger

Guest post by Dr. Roger Pielke Senior Missing The Major Point Of “What Is Climate Sensitivity” There is a post by Zeke on Blackboard titled Agreeing [See also the post on Climate Etc  Agreeing(?)]. Zeke starts the post with the text “My … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 113 Comments

Model Charged with Excessive Use of Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The GISS Model E is the workhorse of NASA’s climate models. I got interested in the GISSE hindcasts of the 20th century due to an interesting posting by Lucia over at the Blackboard. She built … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , | 155 Comments