Tag Archives: Prediction

JLI First Forecasts

Image Credit: Walter Dnes By Walter Dnes – Edited by Just The Facts In a recent post I introduced The “January Leading Indicator“. At that time, there were some concerns expressed. The attached spreadsheet has been updated to address items … Continue reading

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Posted in Forecasting, Temperature | Tagged , , | 34 Comments

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Forecasting, MetOffice, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 51 Comments

Like ‘the pause’ in surface temperatures, ‘the slump’ in solar activity continues

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has updated their monthly graph set and it is becoming even more clear that we are past solar max, and that solar max has been a dud. “The slump” continues not only in sunspot … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 665 Comments

CET cooling in line with solar model prediction

Yesterday, WUWT carried the headline: Coldest Spring In England Since 1891.  This essay offers what could be an explanation for it. Judge for yourself. – Anthony Guest essay by David Archibald Back in 2006, I published my first paper in … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 93 Comments

Tropical lizards safe from climate change forced extinction

Some good news from Dartmouth College Climate change may have little impact on tropical lizards Dartmouth study contradicts predictions of widespread extinction A new Dartmouth College study finds human-caused climate change may have little impact on many species of tropical … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Extinction | Tagged , , , , , , , | 16 Comments

In retrospect, we ‘predicted’ global warming would slow

Reader Markx writes: The title says it all here: “…Retrospective prediction…” indeed. How could a researcher keep a straight face and write such a title? (Maybe a subversive element at work?) Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News | Tagged , | 124 Comments

Finally, a climate forecast model that works?

Note: Short term predictions are relatively easy, it remains to be seen if this holds up over the long term. I have my doubts. – Anthony Guest post by Frank Lemke The Global Warming Prediction Project is an impartial, transparent, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 207 Comments

An animated analysis of the IPCC AR5 graph shows ‘IPCC analysis methodology and computer models are seriously flawed’

This post made me think of this poem, The Arrow and the Song. The arrows are the forecasts, and the song is the IPCC report – Anthony I shot an arrow into the air, It fell to earth, I knew not … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 117 Comments

Climate models outperformed by random walks

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 160 Comments

NASA/Hathaway’s updated solar cycle prediction – smallest in 100 years

…the predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years (Updated 2012/05/01) From: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , | 134 Comments

The Met Office COPing response

Willis Eschenbach notes that the COP predictions from the Met Office, which I highlighted here, are all over the road. He writes: In the most recent one, they didn’t make a prediction, but they included the historical record, so let … Continue reading

Posted in COP conferences, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 64 Comments

Day of reckoning draws nearer for IPCC

According to Dr. Clive Best, A key prediction from the 2007 IPCC WG1 report fails statistical tests. AR4 figure for long term predictions for each scenario Abstract: Global temperatures measured since 2005 are incompatible with the IPCC model predictions made … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 73 Comments

The World won’t stop having climate cycles just because they are inconvenient.

Guest post by David Archibald The most skillful climatologist the World has seen was Hubert Lamb (1913 – 1997). He can be credited with making the first prediction of the current solar minimum. This was in 1970 in a report … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 130 Comments

Pielke Senior on Climate Science Misconceptions #3

Guest post by Dr. Roger Pielke Senior Climate Science Myths And Misconceptions – Post #3 On Multi-Decadal Regional Climate Predictions Of Changes In Decadal And Longer Statistics Of Extreme Weather This past Friday, Ben Herman commented in Guest Post By Ben … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged | 32 Comments

Why are we so bad at long range weather forecasting?

By WUWT regular “justthefacts” In researching the use of tidal forces in long range weather forecasting, I came across an interesting August 30th, 2010 Associated Press/ MSNBC article based on interviews with Farmer’s Almanac Editors Sandi Duncan and Peter Geiger, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, measurement, Modeling, NOAA, Uncategorized, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 84 Comments

NASA’s Hathaway revises the sunspot prediction down again

From the Marshall Space Flight Center, Dr. Hathaway’s page: Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , | 208 Comments

NASA Sun Spot Number predictions revised again

UPDATE: see my animation of NASA solar forecasts since 2004 below. WUWT Commenter J Gary Fox writes: The solar cycle 24 predicted sunspot maximum has been reduced again – predicted peak down to 59 Max. (1/3/11) http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml “It’s tough to … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 187 Comments