Paul Ehrlich wrong again: World Cereal Production Set To Reach Historic High

There’s a surging current of alarm that we’re headed for a food doomsday by 2050—that the world’s food-producing capacity will crash before population peaks at 10 billion. Don’t you believe it! Smart technology and better management policies will let us feed the hungry hordes to midcentury and beyond. –IEEE Spectrum, Summer 2013 World total cereal…

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The Thirteen Worst Graphs in the World

Guest essay by Geoff Chambers “Ten Billion” by Stephen Emmott – a 120-page paperback Ehrlich-style Doomfest – is due out in the next few days, published by Vintage in the USA and Penguin in the UK. German, Italian and Dutch translations are also due. Publication was brought forward hurriedly because of the appearance in Britain…

Steven W. Running On Empty

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Let me start by getting the jargon out of the way. The “NPP” is the “net primary productivity”. It is how many total tonnes of new plant matter are produced around the globe each year as a result of photosynthesis. In a book excerpt in the February 2002 UnScientific American…

Do Increasing Temperatures Lower Crop Yields?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I keep reading these claims that we’re all going to starve because of global warming. People say it’s going to be the death of agriculture, that increasing temperatures will cause significant drops in crop yields. Here’s a typical bit of alarmism (emphasis mine): A study by the International Food Policy…

Great moments in failed predictions

UPDATE: New table added below. While searching for something else, I came across this entertaining collection of grand predictive failures related to resources and climate change, along with some of the biggest predictive failures of Paul Ehrlich. I thought it worth sharing. Exhaustion of Resources “Indeed it is certain, it is clear to see, that…