Met Office Confirms St Jude’s Day Storm Was Not Unusual

By Paul Homewood The Met Office have now issued their comprehensive report on the St Jude’s Day storm, that hit southern England in October. Readers will recall idiotic headlines at the time, describing it as “The Storm of the Century”, “Unprecedented”, “Superstorm” and “A repeat of 1987”. I pointed out at the time that such…

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New paper: climate models short on ‘physics required for realistic simulation of the Earth system’

I’m pleased to have had a chance to to review this new paper just published in the Journal of Climate: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*. J. Climate, 26, 9334–9347. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1 The lead…

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a paper “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model”, published…

An impartial look at global warming…

Guest essay by M.S.Hodgart (Visiting Reader Surrey Space Centre University of Surrey) The figure presented here is a new graph of the story of global warming – and cooling. The graph makes no predictions and should be used only to see what has been happening historically. The boxed points in the figure are the ‘raw…