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Guest post: “Climate variability research: did the sceptics make us do it?” – Professor Richard Betts

This is a guest post by Prof. Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, (IPCC AR4 and AR5 lead author) about Lewandowsky, Oreskes et al’s forthcoming paper, which suggests that climate skeptics influence climate scientists.  Richard’s post starts now.   Stephan Lewandowsky and co-authors have published an Executive Summary of their forthcoming paper*…

New paper: climate models short on ‘physics required for realistic simulation of the Earth system’

I’m pleased to have had a chance to to review this new paper just published in the Journal of Climate: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*. J. Climate, 26, 9334–9347. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1 The lead…

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a paper “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model”, published…

An impartial look at global warming…

Guest essay by M.S.Hodgart (Visiting Reader Surrey Space Centre University of Surrey) The figure presented here is a new graph of the story of global warming – and cooling. The graph makes no predictions and should be used only to see what has been happening historically. The boxed points in the figure are the ‘raw…