Tag Archives: Global climate model

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate FAIL, Forecasting, MetOffice, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 51 Comments

‘Let’s face it. The climate has never been more boring.’

Why you won’t see headlines as climate science enters the doldrums Guest post by Dr. Robert G. Brown, Physics Department of Duke University (elevated from a  comment on this thread: RSS Reaches Santer’s 17 Years) This (17 years) is a … Continue reading

Posted in Opinion | Tagged , , , , , , | 177 Comments

No Matter How the CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Models Are Presented They Still Look Bad

UPDATE: I’ve added a comment to the end of the post about the use of 1990 as the start year. # # # After an initial look at how the IPCC elected to show their model-data comparison of global surface … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | Tagged , , , , | 103 Comments

A low-sensitivity climate model that outperforms the Met Office’s HADGEM2

Climate sensitivity is IMHO, the most important unresolved issue in climate science. A number of recent papers, including the IPCC AR5 leak, plus the recent Economist leak of a later AR5 draft are pointing to lower climate sensitivities than what … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

About that missing hot spot in the upper troposphere

Climate Dialogue about the (missing) hot spot by  Marcel Crok Over at the Climate Dialogue website we start with what could become a very interesting discussion about the so-called tropical hot spot. Climate models show amplified warming high in the tropical … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, IPCC | Tagged , , , , | 94 Comments

Comparing Climate Models – Part Two

Guest Essay by Geoffrey H Sherrington See Part One of June 20th at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/20/comparing-climate-models-part-one/ In Part One, there was a challenge to find missing values for a graph that vaguely resembled the spaghetti graph of comparisons of GCMs. Here is … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 38 Comments

Dr. Murray Salby on Model World -vs- Real World

Pierre Gosselin (and commenter Bill_W) tips us to this: Die kalte Sonne website here has just posted the video presentation of Murry Salby in Hamburg in April. If anyone ever demolished the dubious CO2 AGW science, it’s Salby! Most of the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Modeling | Tagged , | 174 Comments

More climate models FAIL – A chink in the armor at Science?

People send me stuff. Lance Wallace writes: Anthony, this short “Perspectives” report in Science seems to me to be worthy of a posting in WUWT. Not only is it a very clear indication of crucial problems with the GCMs, it … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 137 Comments

Are regional models ready for prime time?

Guest post by Marcel Crok A few months ago we  made the launch of the international discussion platform . This week we start the third dialogue about the (added) value of regional climate models. We have three excellent participants joining … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News | Tagged , , , , , , , | 45 Comments

Climate models aren’t good enough to hindcast, says new study

From the University of Gothenburg Climate models are not good enough Only a few climate models were able to reproduce the observed changes in extreme precipitation in China over the last 50 years. This is the finding of a doctoral … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , | 72 Comments

Commitment studies belie “consensus” claim that a persistent high level of temperature forcing cannot cause continued warming

Guest post by Alec Rawls They say it all the time: even if there were some substantial mechanism of enhanced solar forcing it couldn’t be responsible for late 20th century warming because solar activity was roughly constant from 1950 to … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Cosmic rays | Tagged , , , , , , , | 179 Comments

Claim: Five climate-forcing mechanisms govern 20,000 years of climate change

FOREWORD: I don’t agree with many of the claims made in this paper, particularly the retrograde tri-synodic Jupiter/Saturn cycle claims. This is not a peer reviewed paper. That said, I’m willing to allow discussion of it, so be skeptical of these … Continue reading

Posted in Cosmic rays, Modeling, Paleoclimatology, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 347 Comments

New paper predicts SST temperature based on Pacific Centennial Oscillation

Here’s figure 18, which I found interesting, especially the red line. – Anthony Guest post by Bob Tisdale Today, blogger “slimething” left me a link to the Karnauskas et al (2012) paper A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs. … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , | 38 Comments

AR5 Climate Forecasts: What to Believe

Guest post by Pat Frank The summary of results from version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has come out. [1] CMIP5 is evaluating the state-of-the-art general circulation climate models (GCMs) that will be used in the IPCC’s … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , | 117 Comments

New paper on Global Water Vapor puts climate modelers in a bind

Where’s that positive feedback that is supposed to manifest itself in water vapor, the most potent natural greenhouse gas? Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. writes: New Paper “Weather And Climate Analyses Using Improved Global Water Vapor Observations” By Vonder Haar Et … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 92 Comments

Climate models outperformed by random walks

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 160 Comments

Pollution enhanced thunderstorms warm the planet?

From the DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a new paper in GRL saying something that doesn’t make much sense to me. As shown in the diagram above, thunderstorms transport heat from the lower troposphere upwards. The heat source at the base … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, Modeling, thunderstorms, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 85 Comments

IPCC Models vs Observations – Land Surface Temperature Anomalies for the Last 30 Years on a Regional Basis

Guest post by Bob Tisdale In two posts about a year ago and more recently in my book, we compared the satellite-based sea surface temperature anomalies and CMIP3-based climate model simulations on an ocean-basin basis. Refer to Satellite-Era Sea Surface … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

Models say a future shift of western USA to “drier stormier”

More of the “extreme events” meme… From the AGU weekly highlights Regional models expect drier, stormier western United States Key Points Statistically significant increases in western US future extreme winter precipitation Eight dynamically downscaled GCM simulations show generalized agreement Spatial … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 107 Comments

Climate modeling turkey shoot, western style

Western U.S. Precipitation Extremes—How Did This Turkey Get Published? By Dr. Patrick Michaels When it comes to changes in future precipitation across the United States, climate models projections are all over the map. In other words, they provide no useful … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 53 Comments

Scafetta prediction widget update

By Dr. Nicola Scafetta It is time to update my widget comparing the global surface temperature, HadCRUT3 (red and blue), the IPC 2007 projection (green) and my empirical model (black thick curve and cyan area) based on a set of … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 401 Comments

Omitted variable fraud: vast evidence for solar climate driver rates one oblique sentence in AR5

Guest post by Alec Rawls “Expert review” of the First Order Draft of AR5 closed on the 10th. Here is the first paragraph of my submitted critique: My training is in economics where we are very familiar with what statisticians … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 514 Comments

Friday Funny – modeling double feature

Josh of cartoonsbyjosh.com writes: There is a wonderful George Monbiot article here… http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jan/26/weather-forecasters-daily-mail …on how the Daily Mail hired ‘Positive Weather Solutions’, a bunch of models,  to do their weather forecasting for them… very funny. But it is the kind … Continue reading

Posted in Humor, Satire | Tagged , , , , , , , | 20 Comments

Scafetta on his latest paper: Harmonic climate model versus the IPCC general circulation climate models

Guest Post by Dr. Nicola Scafetta Herein, I would like to briefly present my latest publication that continues my research about the meaning of natural climatic cycles and their implication for climate changes: Nicola Scafetta, “Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 119 Comments

Unified Theory of Climate

Note: This was a poster, and adopted into a blog post by the author, Ned Nikolov, specifically for WUWT. My thanks to him for the extra effort in converting the poster to a more blog friendly format. – Anthony Expanding … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 685 Comments

Send in the clouds, there ought to be clouds (in models)

New tool clears the air on cloud simulations LIVERMORE, Calif. — Climate models have a hard time representing clouds accurately because they lack the spatial resolution necessary to accurately simulate the billowy air masses. But Livermore scientists and international collaborators … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 35 Comments

Loehle and Scafetta calculate 0.66°C/century for AGW

Guest post by Craig Loehle and Nicolas Scafetta Human Effect on Climate Clearly Detected (but is 0.66 deg C/100yr since ~1950!) Loehle, C. and N. Scafetta. 2011. Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Historical Time Series. Open Atmospheric Science … Continue reading

Posted in Global warming, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , | 678 Comments

Skeptical Stocking Stuffers

Yesterday on the Friday Funny – the new and improved 4 legged AGW table thread, there was quite a bit of interest in getting T-Shirts of Josh’s latest CAGW cartoon, the “No Shoogle 4 legged CAGW Table” (shoogly means wobbly in … Continue reading

Posted in Announcements, Fun_stuff | Tagged , , , , | 42 Comments

New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are

One of the biggest, if not the biggest issues of climate science skepticism is the criticism of over-reliance on computer model projections to suggest future outcomes. In this paper, climate models were hindcast tested against actual surface observations, and found … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 139 Comments