Tag Archives: Global climate model

Are regional models ready for prime time?

Posted on May 18, 2013 by

Guest post by Marcel Crok A few months ago we  made the launch of the international discussion platform . This week we start the third dialogue about the (added) value of regional climate models. We have three excellent participants joining … Continue reading →

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Posted in Climate News | Tagged , , , , , , , | 45 Comments

Climate models aren’t good enough to hindcast, says new study

Posted on March 25, 2013 by

From the University of Gothenburg Climate models are not good enough Only a few climate models were able to reproduce the observed changes in extreme precipitation in China over the last 50 years. This is the finding of a doctoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , | 72 Comments

Commitment studies belie “consensus” claim that a persistent high level of temperature forcing cannot cause continued warming

Posted on January 9, 2013 by

Guest post by Alec Rawls They say it all the time: even if there were some substantial mechanism of enhanced solar forcing it couldn’t be responsible for late 20th century warming because solar activity was roughly constant from 1950 to … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Cosmic rays | Tagged , , , , , , , | 179 Comments

Claim: Five climate-forcing mechanisms govern 20,000 years of climate change

Posted on October 12, 2012 by

FOREWORD: I don’t agree with many of the claims made in this paper, particularly the retrograde tri-synodic Jupiter/Saturn cycle claims. This is not a peer reviewed paper. That said, I’m willing to allow discussion of it, so be skeptical of these … Continue reading →

Posted in Cosmic rays, Modeling, Paleoclimatology, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 347 Comments

New paper predicts SST temperature based on Pacific Centennial Oscillation

Posted on October 3, 2012 by

Here’s figure 18, which I found interesting, especially the red line. – Anthony Guest post by Bob Tisdale Today, blogger “slimething” left me a link to the Karnauskas et al (2012) paper A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs. … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , | 38 Comments

AR5 Climate Forecasts: What to Believe

Posted on August 23, 2012 by

Guest post by Pat Frank The summary of results from version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has come out. [1] CMIP5 is evaluating the state-of-the-art general circulation climate models (GCMs) that will be used in the IPCC’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , | 117 Comments

New paper on Global Water Vapor puts climate modelers in a bind

Posted on July 18, 2012 by

Where’s that positive feedback that is supposed to manifest itself in water vapor, the most potent natural greenhouse gas? Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. writes: New Paper “Weather And Climate Analyses Using Improved Global Water Vapor Observations” By Vonder Haar Et … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 92 Comments

Climate models outperformed by random walks

Posted on June 14, 2012 by

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 160 Comments

Pollution enhanced thunderstorms warm the planet?

Posted on May 18, 2012 by

From the DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a new paper in GRL saying something that doesn’t make much sense to me. As shown in the diagram above, thunderstorms transport heat from the lower troposphere upwards. The heat source at the base … Continue reading →

Posted in Aerosols, Modeling, thunderstorms, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 85 Comments

IPCC Models vs Observations – Land Surface Temperature Anomalies for the Last 30 Years on a Regional Basis

Posted on April 23, 2012 by

Guest post by Bob Tisdale In two posts about a year ago and more recently in my book, we compared the satellite-based sea surface temperature anomalies and CMIP3-based climate model simulations on an ocean-basin basis. Refer to Satellite-Era Sea Surface … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate data, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

Models say a future shift of western USA to “drier stormier”

Posted on March 30, 2012 by

More of the “extreme events” meme… From the AGU weekly highlights Regional models expect drier, stormier western United States Key Points Statistically significant increases in western US future extreme winter precipitation Eight dynamically downscaled GCM simulations show generalized agreement Spatial … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 107 Comments

Climate modeling turkey shoot, western style

Posted on March 12, 2012 by

Western U.S. Precipitation Extremes—How Did This Turkey Get Published? By Dr. Patrick Michaels When it comes to changes in future precipitation across the United States, climate models projections are all over the map. In other words, they provide no useful … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 53 Comments

Scafetta prediction widget update

Posted on March 11, 2012 by

By Dr. Nicola Scafetta It is time to update my widget comparing the global surface temperature, HadCRUT3 (red and blue), the IPC 2007 projection (green) and my empirical model (black thick curve and cyan area) based on a set of … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 401 Comments

Omitted variable fraud: vast evidence for solar climate driver rates one oblique sentence in AR5

Posted on February 22, 2012 by

Guest post by Alec Rawls “Expert review” of the First Order Draft of AR5 closed on the 10th. Here is the first paragraph of my submitted critique: My training is in economics where we are very familiar with what statisticians … Continue reading →

Posted in IPCC, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 514 Comments

Friday Funny – modeling double feature

Posted on January 27, 2012 by

Josh of cartoonsbyjosh.com writes: There is a wonderful George Monbiot article here… http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jan/26/weather-forecasters-daily-mail …on how the Daily Mail hired ‘Positive Weather Solutions’, a bunch of models,  to do their weather forecasting for them… very funny. But it is the kind … Continue reading →

Posted in Humor, Satire | Tagged , , , , , , , | 20 Comments

Scafetta on his latest paper: Harmonic climate model versus the IPCC general circulation climate models

Posted on January 9, 2012 by

Guest Post by Dr. Nicola Scafetta Herein, I would like to briefly present my latest publication that continues my research about the meaning of natural climatic cycles and their implication for climate changes: Nicola Scafetta, “Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate data, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 119 Comments

Unified Theory of Climate

Posted on December 29, 2011 by

Note: This was a poster, and adopted into a blog post by the author, Ned Nikolov, specifically for WUWT. My thanks to him for the extra effort in converting the poster to a more blog friendly format. – Anthony Expanding … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 685 Comments

Send in the clouds, there ought to be clouds (in models)

Posted on October 27, 2011 by

New tool clears the air on cloud simulations LIVERMORE, Calif. — Climate models have a hard time representing clouds accurately because they lack the spatial resolution necessary to accurately simulate the billowy air masses. But Livermore scientists and international collaborators … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 35 Comments

Loehle and Scafetta calculate 0.66°C/century for AGW

Posted on July 25, 2011 by

Guest post by Craig Loehle and Nicolas Scafetta Human Effect on Climate Clearly Detected (but is 0.66 deg C/100yr since ~1950!) Loehle, C. and N. Scafetta. 2011. Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Historical Time Series. Open Atmospheric Science … Continue reading →

Posted in Global warming, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , | 678 Comments

Skeptical Stocking Stuffers

Posted on December 11, 2010 by

Yesterday on the Friday Funny – the new and improved 4 legged AGW table thread, there was quite a bit of interest in getting T-Shirts of Josh’s latest CAGW cartoon, the “No Shoogle 4 legged CAGW Table” (shoogly means wobbly in … Continue reading →

Posted in Announcements, Fun_stuff | Tagged , , , , | 42 Comments