The problems encountered by scientists trying to put a number on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) for CO2x2 are almost insurmountable because of this complexity and estimates, consequently, vary greatly.
Tag: ECS
More on the statistical dispute between Scafetta and Schmidt
By Andy May The argument about the proper way to estimate error in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5 weather reanalysis dataset between Nicola Scafetta and Gavin…
Do CMIP5 models skillfully match actual warming?
CMIP5 models have not been at all skillful in predicting future warming; they have matched the illustrated 1970–2020 observed warming (which was past rather than future warming until the late 2000s, when CMIP5 models…
The Elephants in The Room
On that assumption, each $1 billion spent on abatement would prevent less than 1/10,000,000 C:
The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 4, converting observations to ECS
By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they…
The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 3, What is Climate Sensitivity?
By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they…
The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 2, the Impact of Clouds
By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. The yearly net impact of clouds on outgoing and incoming radiation varies over one W/m2 from year-to-year, according…
The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 1
By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. The climate sensitivity to CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) is arguably the most important number in the…
Is Warming Accelerating in the Troposphere?
…the new NOAA data do not support a claim that warming in the troposphere has undergone a statistically-significant change in trend.
The New Pause lengthens: 100 Months with No Warming At All
The cold weather on both sides of the Atlantic last month seems to have had its effect on temperature, which fell sharply compared with November, lengthening the New Pause to…
Equilibrium Doubled-CO2 Sensitivity by Observational Methods
On that basis, each $1 billion that Britain and the world spends on chasing after net zero will prevent just one thirty-millionth of a degree of warming that would otherwise…
Climate Sensitivity from 1970-2021 Warming Estimates
.. the observational data suggest lower climate sensitivities (ECS) than promoted by the IPCC with a central estimate of +2.09 deg C. for the global average. This is at the…
IPCC AR6: Breaking the hegemony of global climate models
Well, I’ve been reading the fine print of the IPCC AR6 WG1 Report. The authors are to be congratulated for preparing a document that is vastly more intellectually sophisticated than…
CMIP6 ECS
It is apparent that those who believe in anthropogenic global warming do not understand the intractable fundamental problem with their climate model approach. They are digging themselves a deeper hole.…
A WUWT “Comment Rebuke”
To summarize without any math, the GHE exists. It experimentally must, and easily provably does. The GHE issues are how much when (ECS), not if. Any ‘skeptical’ arguments to the…
Climate ECS Closure
There are two notions of ECS. The first is without feedbacks (mainly water vapor and clouds). It estimates a simple non-condensing gas CO2 doubling. AR4 implicitly had that at a…
An Electronic Analog to Climate Feedback
Here we simulate a “test rig” for illustrating the difference between Christopher Monckton’s approach to projecting equilibrium climate sensitivity (“ECS”) and what he says climatology’s approach is. (ECS is the…
Why Models Can’t Predict Temperature: A History Of Failure
The bottom line is that climatology is simply wrong about the magnitude of future global warming. No government should pay the slightest attention to anything it says.
Compensation between cloud feedback + ECS and aerosol-cloud forcing in CMIP6 models
The new open-access paper – the senior author of which, Gabriel Vecchi, is a well known professor of geosciences at Princeton University – provides further evidence that high ECS CMIP6…
How much global warming should IPCC’s next report predict?
Mainstream climate scientists have been busy in the last two years, publishing updated climatological data in time for IPCC’s forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report. The availability of those recent mainstream data…
Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS
Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate…
Crisis looms in alarmist climate science
Climate science is dominated by alarmists addicted to the idea that increasing carbon dioxide will cause dangerous global warming. How much warming is thus the central scientific question.
Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions. But neither of the reviewers appear to…
Two more degrees by 2100!
From Dr Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on December 27, 2019 by curryja | by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C? This post was originally intended as…
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