Tag Archives: Dalton Minimum

Animated analysis shows that IPCC AR5 global warming prediction is lower than AR4, TAR, and FAR

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein I just updated my December 2012 IPCC “Arrows” animation based on the latest available IPCC AR5 (2013) Global Warming prediction for 2035. One good result is that the midpoint of the AR5 prediction range for … Continue reading

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Posted in IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , , | 49 Comments

The Climate-Grain Production Relationship Quantified

Guest essay by David Archibald There is now consensus that the Sun has now entered a quiet period. The first paper from the solar physics community predicting the current quiet period was Schatten and Tobiska’s 2003 paper “Solar Activity Heading … Continue reading

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Solar Update February 2013

Guest post by David Archibald Solar Cycle 24 has already seen five consecutive colder winters. This is a link to a post about a German meteorologist who has seen the light. Eventually people will work their way back to where … Continue reading

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , | 177 Comments

The potential impact of volcanic overprinting of the Eddy Minimum

Guest post by David Archibald There were five named solar minima in the last millennium – the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima. At least the last four were all associated with cold climates. The astrophysics community has elected … Continue reading

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When will it start cooling?

Guest post by David Archibald My papers and those of Jan-Erik Solheim et al predict a significant cooling over Solar Cycle 24 relative to Solar Cycle 23. Solheim’s model predicts that Solar Cycle 24, for the northern hemisphere, will be … Continue reading

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Premonitions of the Fall (in temperature)

Guest post by David Archibald The first prediction of the current climatic minimum was made by Hubbert Lamb in 1970 in a report (Weiss and Lamb) for the German Navy. He did it by making a reconstructed record of the … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Paleoclimatology, Solar | Tagged , , , , , | 198 Comments

Another day, another Central Asian precipitation study finds a link to solar activity

From Sun and Liu 2012: all of the deep solar minima of the last millennium (Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton) correspond to periods of drought in the Qilian Mountains of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau according to this tree-ring study. … Continue reading

Posted in Paleoclimatology, Proxies, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 56 Comments

Solar Update March 2012

by David Archibald Figure 1: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle 1976 – 2012 The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle is currently at 67°. Solar maximum occurs when it reaches 74° – so a little bit further to go.

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Archibald: Solar Based Climate Forecast to 2050

Guest post by David Archibald When I started out in climate science in 2005, the climate people ignored the solar physics community. A casual perusal of the literature though indicated that the difference in climate outcome from Dikpati’s (NASA) estimate … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , | 195 Comments

A Dalton Minimum Repeat is Shaping Up

The sun went spotless yesterday, the first time in quite awhile. It seems like a good time to present this analysis from my friend David Archibald. For those not familiar with the Dalton Minimum, here’s some background info from Wiki: … Continue reading

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