Tag Archives: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

Study: lack of cloud physics biased climate models high

The Hockey Schtick brings this to our attention. It seems Dr. Roy Spencer was prescient with his observation: “The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere … Continue reading

About these ads
Posted in Climate sensitivity, clouds, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 102 Comments

Statistical proof of ‘the pause’ – Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

Commentary from Nature Climate Change, by John C. Fyfe, Nathan P. Gillett, & Francis W. Zwiers Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 348 Comments

Can The IPCC Do Revolutionary Science?

Guest Essay by Barry Brill The timing couldn’t be worse. On 23-26 September, scores of representatives of the world’s Environment Ministries are scheduled to meet in Stockholm to wordsmith the final draft of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 187 Comments

Grade school science howler from Ken Caldeira: ‘CO2…forms carbonic acid (the same thing that makes soda fizz)’

From the Carnegie Institution , where soda pop science is like a carbonic acid trip, they say (thanks to modeling) we have to make big changes:  “To save coral reefs, we need to transform our energy system…” while equating natural … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Oceans | Tagged , , , , , , , | 136 Comments

Volcanic Corroboration

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Back in 2010, I wrote a post called “Prediction is hard, especially of the future“. It turned out to be the first of a series of posts that I ended up writing on the inability … Continue reading

Posted in Volcanoes | Tagged , , , , , , | 41 Comments

AR5 Climate Forecasts: What to Believe

Guest post by Pat Frank The summary of results from version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has come out. [1] CMIP5 is evaluating the state-of-the-art general circulation climate models (GCMs) that will be used in the IPCC’s … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , | 117 Comments

Preview of CMIP5/IPCC AR5 Global Surface Temperature Simulations and the HadCRUT4 Dataset

Guest post by Bob Tisdale INTRODUCTION As a preview of the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) due out in September 2013, in this post, we’ll take a brief look at the multi-model ensemble mean … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 62 Comments