“[I]f these models cannot reproduce past variations, why should we be so confident about their ability to predict the future?”
Tag: CMIP5
Do CMIP5 models skillfully match actual warming?
CMIP5 models have not been at all skillful in predicting future warming; they have matched the illustrated 1970–2020 observed warming (which was past rather than future warming until the late 2000s, when CMIP5 models…
Transient Climate Response from Observations 1979-2022
The best estimate of TCR based on CMIP6 models (the red line in Fig.1) is 1.6K / 2*CO2, following the cited paper.
Inside Climate News Confuses Models with Reality
If the current models used for temperature prediction are not accurate, then the food production models that rely on them cannot be expected to be accurate either.
Climate models fail in key test region
The researchers found that when compared to observations, almost every CMIP5 model fails, no matter whether the multidecadal variability is assumed to be forced or internal. They also found institutional…
Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050
Climate impact assessments are being biased in an alarming direction by continued inclusion, and especially sole reliance, on RCP8.5. For climate change to 2050, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 are the most…
CMIP6 adds more value in simulating extreme temperatures in China
Climate models have provided an avenue for studying the possible changes in extreme temperatures in the future; and in this respect, to ease of comparison across models from different modelling…
Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS
Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate…
Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions. But neither of the reviewers appear to…
Hot Summer Epic Fail: New Climate Models Exaggerate Midwest Warming by 6X
Contrary to popular perception, the U.S. Midwest has seen little long-term summer warming. For precipitation, the slight drying predicted by climate models in response to human greenhouse gas emissions has…
Corrected RCP Scenario Removal Fractions
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog February 6th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Well, as I suspected (and warned everyone) in my blog post yesterday, a portion of…
Nature Has Been Removing Excess CO2 4X Faster than IPCC Models
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog February 5th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Note: What I present below is scarcely believable to me. I have looked for an…
Oreskes Vs. Oreskes
By Rud Istvan, edited by Charles Rotter WUWT reader Max alerted us to a 1994 Naomi Oreskes et. al. paper published in the prestigious journal Science. Her paper was a…
Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2
From Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc Posted on December 20, 2019 by niclewis | 14 Comments By Nic Lewis In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis…
Does the Climate System Have a Preferred Average State? Chaos and the Forcing-Feedback Paradigm
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s website October 25th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. NOTE: I have written on this subject before, but it is important enough that we…
Why Roy Spencer’s Criticism is Wrong
12 October 2019 Pat Frank A bit over a month ago, I posted an essay on WUWT here about my paper assessing the reliability of GCM global air temperature projections…
Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends (1967-2018): A comparison between climate models and observations
According to the climate models, snow cover should have steadily decreased for all four seasons. However, the observations show that only spring and summer demonstrates a long-term decrease. Ronan Connolly,…
The credibility gap between predicted and observed global warming
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley The prolonged el Niño of 2016-2017, not followed by a la Niña, has put paid to the great Pause of 18 years 9 months in…
A climate science milestone: a successful 10-year forecast!
From the Fabius Maximus Blog. Reposted here. By Larry Kummer. From the Fabius Maximus website, 21 Sept 2017. Summary: The gridlock might be breaking in the public policy response to…
Allowable 'carbon budget' most likely overestimated
From Eurekalert and the it’s worse than we thought department. Public Release: 24-Jul-2017 Penn State While most climate scientists, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, implicitly define “pre-industrial” to…
Why Climate Models Run Hot
by Rud Istvan, EPA administrator Pruitt wants to “Red Team” the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) consensus best reflected in the IPCC assessment reports (AR). At its core, CAGW…
One Model, One Vote
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The IPCC, that charming bunch of United Nations intergovernmental bureaucrats masquerading as a scientific organization, views the world of climate models as a democracy. It…
No Matter How the CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Models Are Presented They Still Look Bad
UPDATE: I’ve added a comment to the end of the post about the use of 1990 as the start year. # # # After an initial look at how the…
Volcanic Corroboration
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Back in 2010, I wrote a post called “Prediction is hard, especially of the future“. It turned out to be the first of a series…
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