Tag Archives: Climatology

Peer Review; Last Refuge of the (Uninformed) Troll

Current peer review science, by attempting to explain away model failure, in fact confirms that the science is wrong Guest essay by David M. Hoffer It has become a favorite tactic amongst trolls to declare their belief in peer reviewed … Continue reading

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Posted in Modeling, Peer review | Tagged , , , , , , , | 244 Comments

New paper: climate models short on ‘physics required for realistic simulation of the Earth system’

I’m pleased to have had a chance to to review this new paper just published in the Journal of Climate: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 46 Comments

A hilarious view of Climategate I’ve never read before

Scientific understanding and faith simultaneously on display:  ‘For climatologists, the search for an irrefutable “sign” of anthropogenic warming has assumed an almost Biblical intensity.’ – Fred Pearce, New Scientist, October 1996 This being near Climategate time, it is worth reflecting … Continue reading

Posted in Climategate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 56 Comments

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Forecasting, MetOffice, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 51 Comments

September doldrums – solar slump continues

While many science related government agencies are shut down (NASA GISS is deemed ‘non-essential’ for example) some remain open due to statements like this: Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because … Continue reading

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 233 Comments

IPCC Climate: A Product of Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics Built On Inadequate Data

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball “If you torture the data enough, nature will always confess” – Ronald Coase. Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable. – Anonymous. Climatology is the study of average weather over time or … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC | Tagged , , | 81 Comments

Uh, oh. It’s models all the way down

Dr. Judith Curry lets an announcement slip in comments.

Posted in Climate News | Tagged , , , | 106 Comments

National Academy of Sciences: climate models still ‘decades away’ from being useful

From the National Academy of Sciences report A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling: Computer models that simulate the climate are an integral part of providing climate information, in particular for future changes in the climate. Overall, climate modeling has … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 114 Comments

Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different computers using the same code

New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad disagreement in the output that increases with … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Uncertainty | Tagged , , , | 281 Comments

Two years to a 1740-type event?

Guest essay by David Archibald Wiggle-matching has been used by the best. Hubert Lamb, considered to be the most meticulous climatologist of all time, used wiggle-matching in this wind data graph he published in 1988: He had plotted up 600 … Continue reading

Posted in Curious things, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , | 136 Comments

Quite possibly the dumbest example of ‘Tabloid Climatology’ ever from Climate Central’s Andrew Freedman

Andrew Freedman writes in this Tabloid Climatology™ piece at Climate Central: When Hurricane Sandy struck New York City on October 29, 2012, the dark waters of Flushing Bay poured over the edges of LaGuardia Airport, flooding parts of the facility’s … Continue reading

Posted in Sea level, Tabloid Climatology | Tagged , , , , , , , | 95 Comments

Quote of the week – a pause for cooling off

From Dr. Judith Curry: 

Posted in Quote of the Week | Tagged , , , , | 31 Comments

An analysis of night time cooling based on NCDC station record data

Guest post by Mike Crow Figure 1 Night time temperature profile of a clear sky night in NE Ohio. 8:28pm Sunset/6:16am Sunrise Climate science is all about surface temperature trends. The problem with this is that the CAGW is a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data | Tagged , , , | 110 Comments

On Hartmann and Wendler 2005 “The Significance of the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift in the Climatology of Alaska.”

Note: this is a companion article for the story: The Guardian’s Suzanne Goldenberg takes a fossil fueled trip to a remote Alaskan village to tell us recent global warming caused it to sink – but that’s not the cause   … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic, PDO, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , | 16 Comments

Curry and Lomborg in house committee today – webcast live

UPDATE: Dr. Judith Curry’s transcript of her verbal testimaony is online here: http://judithcurry.com/2013/04/25/congressional-hearing-on-policy-relevant-climate-issues-in-context/ Skeptics outnumber alarmists at House of Representatives session today Subcommittee on Environment Hearing – Policy Relevant Climate Issues in Context Subcommittee on Environment | 2318 Rayburn House … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | Tagged , , , | 58 Comments

When Alaska Was Cold

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Temperatures are generally referred to some kind of long-term, often 30-year average. This is called the “climatology”, meaning the long-term average values of various climate variables. For up-to-date analyses, the period of time is usually … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic | Tagged , , , | 52 Comments

Challenging the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change

Consensus does not necessarily guarantee sound science Guest post by Forrest M. Mims III Consensus is often cited in support of scientific paradigms, including anthropogenic climate change. Australian physicist Tom Quirk has neatly dissected the consensus argument for the human … Continue reading

Posted in Climate_change, Consensus | Tagged , , , , , , , | 111 Comments

Dear readers – your help needed in fun crowdsourcing project

NOTE: This is a “sticky” top post, new posts will appear below this one. No, I’m not asking for money, only your ability to research and encapsulate an idea. I have another big project in the works, and I’m inviting … Continue reading

Posted in Curious things | Tagged , | 546 Comments

German “mad scientist” wants to rule the world…

Hmmm, sounds like a bad “B” movie plot. From Pierre Gosselin at No Tricks Zone: Why German Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber & Co. Will Become The Object Of Ridicule For Future Generations (…) Any fan of Hollywood films following the climate … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 123 Comments

Keeping track of NOAA’s ENSO data changes

The NOAA Weekly ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Indices Webpage Has Changed Location By Bob Tisdale There has been concern expressed recently around the blogosphere that NOAA hasn’t updated their weekly El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature-based indices webpage since May … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 21 Comments

Climate models outperformed by random walks

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 160 Comments

Gavin Schmidt talk at URI

WUWT reader Gary writes in with this: Gavin Schmidt gave a lecture at my University yesterday and I thought you might like to see it. He starts at 21 minutes into the clip. The Metcalf Institute seeks to communicate science … Continue reading

Posted in Presentations | Tagged , , , , , , , | 36 Comments

New branch of science coined on WUWT

While we wait for Nick Stokes and David Appell to work up excuses for their embracing the “climate scientists get death threats” fiasco, I thought I’d share this spinoff of this short passage I wrote yesterday: Likewise, blogger/scientist Nick Stokes, … Continue reading

Posted in Humor, Post-normal science, Satire | Tagged , , , , , | 94 Comments

McIntyre gets some new Yamal data – still no hockey stick

Steve McIntyre writes: Yesterday, I received updated Yamal data (to 2005) from Rashit Hantemirov, together with a cordial cover note. As CA and other readers know, Hantemirov had also promptly sent me data for Hantemirov and Shiyatov in 2002. There … Continue reading

Posted in Gavin Schmidt, Paleoclimatology | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 138 Comments

The Minnesota “drought flood”

Guest post by Scott Gates Much as with the UK – where their “drought” is demonstrated by severe flooding … in Minnesota it is much the same. The government forecasters (NOAA)  claims we’re in a long term moderate to severe … Continue reading

Posted in Drought, flooding, Uncategorized, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , | 79 Comments

Why climate science is a textbook example of groupthink

In groupthink, organizations value consensus more than free thought. The emphasis on consensus leads to group polarization, in which a group’s positions become more extreme than any individual would come up with. Alarmist climate science is a textbook example of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate ugliness, Consensus | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 172 Comments

Madrid 1995: Was this the Tipping Point in the Corruption of Climate Science?

Reposted with permission from Enthusiasm, Scepticism and Science John Haughton writes of it under the heading:  Meetings that Changed the World. He may be right but not only in the way he thinks. Here we consider whether this meeting in … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 73 Comments

NSIDC fixes their Arctic Sea Ice graphing problem

As I mentioned yesterday, NSIDC had an oops moment, but with the help of skeptical blogs, was notified of the problem and responded timely and appropriately. They posted this update today: Update, April 19, 2012: The nine-day trailing average climatology … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic, Sea ice | Tagged , , , | 86 Comments

Friday Funny – expert opinion

While Dr. Richard Feynman famously said: Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts. Josh notes that climatologists do it with crystal balls…

Posted in Humor, Satire | Tagged , , | 41 Comments

Cambridge professor Michael Kelly on “deniers” and climate change: “science has been consistently over-egged to produce alarm.”

UPDATE: 9:50AM 2/28 Professor Kelly responds in comments. It seems the Times saw fit to remove an important portion of his first paragraph. I’ve highlighted the missing text in red. Gobsmacking that they couldn’t handle this one sentence but left … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 120 Comments

Peter Gleick lecturing the U.S. Senate on “deceitful tactics”

“Copner” alerts us in comments to this public document: Testimony of Dr. Peter Gleick, February 7, 2007 Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Table 1 Categories of Deceitful Tactics and Abuse of the Scientific Process (source: P.H. Gleick, Pacific Institute, 2007) … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 84 Comments

Not quite Friday Funny– “Fakegate”

Josh from CartoonsbyJosh.com writes: Another ‘Gate’ – but this one turned round and bit the owner. Leo Hickman and co at the Guardian thought they had a bona fide leak of incriminating information on the funding of climate skeptics by … Continue reading

Posted in Fakegate | Tagged , , , , , , , | 103 Comments

New paper and stunning video from the Space Station – UHI much?

Professor Ross McKitrick has just released a new paper on UHI, after reading it, it reminds me of this video from the space station. Weather stations exist in the points of light that define humanity at night, even in rural … Continue reading

Posted in UHI | Tagged , , , , , , , | 69 Comments

Cites and Signs of the times

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been involved in climate science for a while now, this is not my first rodeo. And I’ve read so many pseudo-scientific studies that I’m starting to develop a list of signs that indicate when … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Ridiculae | Tagged , , , , , , , | 132 Comments

Quote of the week – always happy to help

At WUWT, one thing we pride ourselves in is helping visitors learn about the issues and the science, even if those visitors should already know what these things mean. Take for example, Michael Tobis proprietor of “Only In it for … Continue reading

Posted in Quote of the Week | Tagged , , , | 188 Comments