antarctica ice areas

Repeated Trials, Autocorrelation, and Albedo

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach OK, quick gambler’s question. Suppose I flip seven coins in the air at once and they all seven come up heads. Are the coins loaded? Near as I can tell, statistics was invented by gamblers to answer this type of question. The seven coins are independent events. If they are…

tao triton buoy location plus sst

The Daily Albedo Cycle

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I discussed the role of tropical albedo in regulating the temperature in two previous posts entitled Albedic Meanderings and An Inherently Stable System. This post builds on that foundation. I said in the latter post that I would discuss the diurnal changes in tropical cloud albedo. For this I use…

CERES total albedo

Albedic Meanderings

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been considering the nature of the relationship between the albedo and temperature. I have hypothesized elsewhere that variations in tropical cloud albedo are one of the main mechanisms that maintain the global surface temperature within a fairly narrow range (e.g. within ± 0.3°C during the entire 20th Century). To…

CERES Arctic Reflections All Sky

Arctic Albedo Variations

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Anthony has just posted the results from a “Press Session” at the AGU conference. In it the authors make two claims of interest. The first is that there has been a five percent decrease in the summer Arctic albedo since the year 2000: A decline in the region’s albedo –…

The ‘strawman’ albedo effect

From ETH Zurich , something that actually makes sense. Straw albedo mitigates extreme heat Wheat fields are often tilled immediately after the crop is harvested, removing the light-coloured stubble and crop residues from the soil surface and bringing dark bare earth to the top. Post-harvest tilling is a widely practised and common management technique in…

How Much Sunlight Actually Enters The System?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a new study in PNAS, entitled “Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice” by Pistone et al. Let me start by registering a huge protest against the title. The sea ice is varying, it isn’t “vanishing”, that’s just alarmist rhetoric that has no place in…

New PNAS paper claims Arctic planetary albedo dropped significantly, yet recent CERES data shows no significant change

From PNAS: Direct satellite observation reveals that the Arctic planetary albedo, a measure of reflectiveness, decreased from 0.52 to 0.48 between 1979 and 2011, a change in albedo that corresponds to a climate forcing 25% as large as that due to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the same time period, according to this…