Category Archives: Uncertainty

UN IPCC AR5 climate reports: Conjecture disguised as certainty

UN IPCC WG report process fails to integrate critical information Guest essay by Larry Hamlin The world has experienced over the last 15+ years a remarkable absence of increasing global temperatures despite huge and growing increases in global CO2 emissions … Continue reading

About these ads
Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Uncertainty | 66 Comments

Lovejoy’s 99% ‘confidence’ vs. measurement uncertainty

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley It is time to be angry at the gruesome failure of peer review that allows publication of papers, such as the recent effusion of Professor Lovejoy of McGill University, which, in the gushing, widely-circulated press … Continue reading

Posted in 99% certainty, Bad science, Uncertainty | 183 Comments

Lewandowsky says we must fear uncertainty, and act on it, because, science

Guest essay by Eric Worrall Stephan Lewandowsky (of retracted Recursive Fury fame ) has just released a paper supporting the “precautionary principle” (h/t JoNova). According to Lewandowsky, the more uncertain you are about risk, the more you should spend to … Continue reading

Posted in Uncertainty | 248 Comments

Nine Lessons and Carols in Communicating Climate Uncertainty

Tamsin Edwards has a new essay on uncertainty, here is an excerpt: About a month ago I was invited to represent the Cabot Institute at the All Parliamentary Party Climate Change Group (APPCCG) meeting on “Communicating Risk and Uncertainty around … Continue reading

Posted in Uncertainty | Tagged , , , | 68 Comments

Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different computers using the same code

New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad disagreement in the output that increases with … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Uncertainty | Tagged , , , | 281 Comments

Kevin Trenberth struggles mightily to explain the lack of global warming

Tom Nelson captures this delicious irony, apparently it isn’t a travesty any more, it’s the sun.

Posted in Solar, Uncertainty | Tagged , , | 96 Comments

Aerosols from Moderate Volcanos Now Blamed for Global Warming Hiatus

While looking for quotes on an upcoming post about Ocean Heat Content, I ran across the press release for a new paper (in press) by Neely et al, which blames the recent slowdown in global warming on smaller more moderate … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, Consensus, Global warming, Uncertainty, Volcanoes | 276 Comments

On certainty: Truth is the Daughter of Time

This comment from Dr. Robert Brown at Duke University is elevated from a comment to a full post for further discussion. Since we have a new paper (Shepherd et al) that is being touted in the media as “certain” using … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Uncertainty | Tagged , , , , , , , | 191 Comments