short-term-uncertainty-phases

The ‘uncertainty monster’ bites back at IPCC scientists

WUWT readers may recall this paper from Dr. Judith Curry where the “uncertainty monster” was given life. The uncertainty monster has bitten back. It seems that the IPCC botched more than just AR5 in 2013, they also botched their own press conference on the Summary for Policy Makers in Stockholm by not paying attention to…

Note the step change. At about 1960, the uncertainty levels plummet, meaning BEST is claiming we became more than twice as certain of our temperature estimates practically overnight.

BEST practices step uncertainty levels in their climate data

Brandon Shollenberger writes in with this little gem: I thought you might be interested in a couple posts I wrote discussing some odd problems with the BEST temperature record.  You can find them here: http://www.hi-izuru.org/wp_blog/2015/01/how-best-overestimates-its-certainty-part-2/ http://www.hi-izuru.org/wp_blog/2015/01/how-best-overestimates-its-certainty-part-1/ But I’ll give an overview.  BEST calculated its uncertainty levels by removing 1/8th of its data and rerunning its…

‘Climate models not only significantly over-predict observed warming in the tropical troposphere, but they represent it in a fundamentally different way than is observed’

New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick (at Climate Audit). Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. Among other things we show that climate models are…

A trifecta of uncertainty: study finds global precipitation is increasing, decreasing, & not changing

This story from the Hockey Schtick is a verification of an analysis on WUWT from Bob Tisdale: No Consensus among Three Global Precipitation Datasets According to a paper published today in Atmospheric Science Letters, global precipitation has either decreased, increased, or not changed over the past 30 years, depending upon which of 3 global datasets are…

New Report Urges Cost-Effective Adaptation To Sea-Level Change

Policies That Try To Stop ‘Global’ Sea-Level Rise Are Costly & Ineffective A new report published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation stresses the importance of revising the current expensive policies that seek to mitigate an assumed global sea-level rise by cutting human carbon dioxide emissions. The report, co-authored by Dr Willem de Lange…