Category Archives: Uncertainty

A trifecta of uncertainty: study finds global precipitation is increasing, decreasing, & not changing

This story from the Hockey Schtick is a verification of an analysis on WUWT from Bob Tisdale: No Consensus among Three Global Precipitation Datasets According to a paper published today in Atmospheric Science Letters, global precipitation has either decreased, increased, or … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate News, Rainfall, Uncertainty | 47 Comments

Study: sea level rise acceleration still uncertain, we won’t have statistical certainty until 2020-2030

This is a bit of a bombshell to those that claim sea level rise is accelerating and certain. From the University of Southampton: Back to the future to determine if sea level rise is accelerating Scientists have developed a new … Continue reading

Posted in Sea level, Uncertainty | 69 Comments

New Report Urges Cost-Effective Adaptation To Sea-Level Change

Policies That Try To Stop ‘Global’ Sea-Level Rise Are Costly & Ineffective A new report published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation stresses the importance of revising the current expensive policies that seek to mitigate an assumed global sea-level … Continue reading

Posted in Sea level, Uncertainty | 31 Comments

Lewandowsky on ‘leakage’

No smear psychological categorization mission is too offbeat for Lew. Now he’s on about “leakage”. Try to stifle the images that conjures up while thinking about your choice of preventative antiemetics. s mac says: in WUWT Tips and Notes: Anthony, … Continue reading

Posted in Post-normal science, Stephan Lewandowsky, Uncertainty | 105 Comments

UN IPCC AR5 climate reports: Conjecture disguised as certainty

UN IPCC WG report process fails to integrate critical information Guest essay by Larry Hamlin The world has experienced over the last 15+ years a remarkable absence of increasing global temperatures despite huge and growing increases in global CO2 emissions … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Uncertainty | 66 Comments

Lovejoy’s 99% ‘confidence’ vs. measurement uncertainty

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley It is time to be angry at the gruesome failure of peer review that allows publication of papers, such as the recent effusion of Professor Lovejoy of McGill University, which, in the gushing, widely-circulated press … Continue reading

Posted in 99% certainty, Bad science, Uncertainty | 268 Comments

Lewandowsky says we must fear uncertainty, and act on it, because, science

Guest essay by Eric Worrall Stephan Lewandowsky (of retracted Recursive Fury fame ) has just released a paper supporting the “precautionary principle” (h/t JoNova). According to Lewandowsky, the more uncertain you are about risk, the more you should spend to … Continue reading

Posted in Uncertainty | 248 Comments

Nine Lessons and Carols in Communicating Climate Uncertainty

Tamsin Edwards has a new essay on uncertainty, here is an excerpt: About a month ago I was invited to represent the Cabot Institute at the All Parliamentary Party Climate Change Group (APPCCG) meeting on “Communicating Risk and Uncertainty around … Continue reading

Posted in Uncertainty | Tagged , , , | 68 Comments

Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different computers using the same code

New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad disagreement in the output that increases with … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Uncertainty | Tagged , , , | 281 Comments

Kevin Trenberth struggles mightily to explain the lack of global warming

Tom Nelson captures this delicious irony, apparently it isn’t a travesty any more, it’s the sun.

Posted in Solar, Uncertainty | Tagged , , | 96 Comments

Aerosols from Moderate Volcanos Now Blamed for Global Warming Hiatus

While looking for quotes on an upcoming post about Ocean Heat Content, I ran across the press release for a new paper (in press) by Neely et al, which blames the recent slowdown in global warming on smaller more moderate … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, Consensus, Global warming, Uncertainty, Volcanoes | 276 Comments

On certainty: Truth is the Daughter of Time

This comment from Dr. Robert Brown at Duke University is elevated from a comment to a full post for further discussion. Since we have a new paper (Shepherd et al) that is being touted in the media as “certain” using … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Uncertainty | Tagged , , , , , , , | 191 Comments