Tropical Storm Arthur – There Is Nothing Unusual About the Sea Surface Temperatures Off the East Coast of the U.S.

UPDATE (July 2, 2014): See the correction at the end of the post. # # # This post was prepared in anticipation of the usual nonsense we hear whenever a tropical storm or hurricane forms and is expected to strike the U.S. The map to the right (Map 1) presents the weekly sea surface temperatures…

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Hurricane Development Region Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies as We Start the 2014 Season

IMPORTANT OPENING NOTE Even if the sea surface temperature anomalies were to remain depressed throughout the 2014 hurricane season (highly unlikely), the actual sea surface temperatures (absolute) from June to November will rise to values capable of spawning hurricanes…a result of the normal seasonal change in surface temperatures. And while El Niño conditions in the…

El Niño Residuals Cause the C-Shaped Warming Pattern in the Pacific

In the recent model-data comparison of satellite-era sea surface temperature anomalies—appropriately titled Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans—we compared trend maps of modeled and observed sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to 2013. See Figure 1. The models showed a general warming of the Pacific with the highest warming rates in…