Category Archives: PDO

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 5 – The Relationship Between the PDO and ENSO

UPDATE: I’ve added NOAA’s description of the PDO index toward the end of the post, before the closing. # # # During the earlier discussions of the upcoming El Niño event, the topic of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO … Continue reading

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Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, PDO | 78 Comments

On Don Easterbrook’s Updated Projection

Don Easterbrook has updated his projection graph. Unfortunately, he did not update the graph that I complained about a few weeks ago, shown on the left in Figure 1. In that graph his projections started around 2010. He appears to … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Hiatus in Global Warming, PDO, Temperature | 149 Comments

Claim: Dramatic thinning of Arctic lake ice cuts winter ice season by 24 days

Arctic lakes have been freezing up later in the year and thawing earlier, creating a winter ice season about 24 days shorter than it was in 1950, a University of Waterloo study has found. But, I don’t think they are … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic, PDO | 67 Comments

Setting the record straight on ‘the cause of pause in global warming’

Guest essay by Don J. Easterbrook, Dept. of Geology, Western Washington University Last week in my post ‘‘The cause of pause in global warming,” I presented data showing that the lack of global warming was not the ‘biggest mystery in … Continue reading

Posted in Opinion, PDO | Tagged , | 172 Comments

Comments on the Nature Article “Climate Change: The Case of the Missing Heat”

UPDATE: I finished writing this post and published it at my blog Climate Observations about the same time that Don Easterbrook’s post Cause of ‘the pause’ in global warming was published at WattsUpWithThat. This post includes an overview of the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, PDO | 31 Comments

Cause of ‘the pause’ in global warming

Guest essay by Don J. Easterbrook, Dept of Geology, Western Washington University The absence of global warming for the past 17 years has been well documented. It has become known as “the pause.” and has been characterized as the “biggest … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Hiatus in Global Warming, PDO | 213 Comments

The journal Nature embraces ‘the pause’ and ocean cycles as the cause, Trenberth still betting his heat will show up

From the “settled science” department. It seems even Dr. Kevin Trenberth is now admitting to the cyclic influences of the AMO and PDO on global climate. Neither “carbon” nor “carbon dioxide” is mentioned in this article that cites Trenberth as … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, PDO, Trenberth's missing heats | 419 Comments

California’s new toilet police

Last Thursday in my local newspaper The Chico Enterprise-Record there was an editorial about saving water through bureaucracy: Editorial: Toilet police don’t want job. It was was of those “only in California” type things about a new law with good … Continue reading

Posted in Drought, PDO, Rainfall, Weather | Tagged , , | 121 Comments

Trenberth and Fasullo Try to Keep the Fantasy Alive

Trenberth and Fasullo published a paper “An Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?” last week in the new online journal Earth’s Future. Judith Curry briefly introduced the paper in her December 7, 2013 post Week in review (Thanks, Judith.) From the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming, Hiatus in Global Warming, Ocean Heat Content, PDO, Trenberth's missing heats | 115 Comments

New study shows Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature drive US tornado strength

From the University of Missouri-Columbia, one more example of how natural variation has trumped the supposed forcing of CO2 to make ‘bad weather’. Pacific ocean temperature influences tornado activity in US, MU study finds COLUMBIA, Mo. – Meteorologists often use … Continue reading

Posted in PDO, Sea Surface Temperature, tornadoes, Weather | Tagged , | 48 Comments

Chylek et al 2013 shows a linkage between US Southwest climate and AMO/PDO cycles

This paper suggests that the CMIP5 models’ (which IPCC relies upon) predicted US SW temperature sensitivity to the GHG has been significantly overestimated by about a factor of two. Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate sensitivity, PDO | Tagged , , | 28 Comments

Climate change is dominated by the water cycle, not carbon dioxide

Guest essay by Steve Goreham Originally published in The Washington Times Climate scientists are obsessed with carbon dioxide. The newly released Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that “radiative forcing” from human-emitted CO2 is … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Oceans, PDO | Tagged , , , , | 138 Comments

Unwarranted Temperature Adjustments and Al Gore’s Unwarranted Call for Intellectual Tyranny

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University For researchers like myself examining the effect of local microclimates on the ecology of local wildlife, the change in the global average is an absolutely … Continue reading

Posted in Al Gore, Climate data, PDO, UHI, Weather_stations | Tagged , , | 184 Comments

On Muller et al (2013) “Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures”

I received an email yesterday morning advising me that Muller et al (2013) had been published. (Thanks, Marc.) The title of the paper is “Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures”. The abstract is here and a preprint version … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, ENSO, PDO | 85 Comments

Decadal Oscillations Of The Pacific Kind

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The recent post here on WUWT about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a lot of folks claiming that the PDO is useful for predicting the future of the climate … I don’t think so … Continue reading

Posted in PDO | Tagged , , | 273 Comments

Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have predictive skill for global temperature?

Reader Eric Worrall writes: I was playing with Wood For Trees, looking at the relationship between Pacific Decadal Oscillation vs global temperature (Hadcrut 4), when the following graph appeared. The interesting thing is PDO in this graph appears to have … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, PDO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 102 Comments

On Hartmann and Wendler 2005 “The Significance of the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift in the Climatology of Alaska.”

Note: this is a companion article for the story: The Guardian’s Suzanne Goldenberg takes a fossil fueled trip to a remote Alaskan village to tell us recent global warming caused it to sink – but that’s not the cause   … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic, PDO, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , | 16 Comments

Multidecadal Variations and Sea Surface Temperature Reconstructions

UPDATE: I’ve added a link at the end of the post for those interested in a copy of it in .pdf format. ########### OVERVIEW This is a somewhat lengthy blog post. There’s lots of information for newcomers, and there are … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO, PDO, Sea Surface Temperature | 29 Comments

The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

Guest post by Pavel Belolipetsky The IPCC, Bob Tisdale and others have presented hypotheses to explain 20th century warming. This article presents another. My co-workers and I call it the “Shifts” hypothesis. And we consider it to have advantages over … Continue reading

Posted in PDO | Tagged , , | 148 Comments

Coralline Algae and the Case for Natural Climate Change

Guest post by Jim Steele Director Sierra Nevada Field Campus, emeritus, San Francisco State University There was a very revealing 2012 paper demonstrating the power and interconnections of natural ocean oscillations, “Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic … Continue reading

Posted in PDO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 64 Comments

Cooling in the near future?

Global Cooling – Climate and Weather Forecasting. Guest post by Dr. Norman Page Introduction. Over the last 10 years or so as new data have accumulated the general trend and likely future course of  climate change has become reasonably clear. The earth … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, PDO | Tagged , , , | 177 Comments

Muscheler retracts? Offers a NEW excuse for why solar activity can’t be responsible for post-70’s warming

Guest post by Alec Rawls Technically Dr. Muscheler is asking me to retract the title of my post, “Raimund Muscheler says that a steady high level of forcing can’t cause warming“: I am sure that you are aware of the fact … Continue reading

Posted in PDO, Solar | Tagged , , , , , | 170 Comments

Linking the ENSO and PDO induced rainfall of the Pacific Northwest to proxy data in tree rings and lake sediments

From Penn State , another Mann paper with proxy sets, and a divergence problem. At least they are talking about the MWP, or as they call it, the Medieval Climate Anomaly which had been erased in previous papers Mann had … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Paleoclimatology, PDO | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 147 Comments

Tisdale on the Curious Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Patterns

Guest post by Bob Tisdale This post will serve as the Preliminary Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Update for June 2012, since we’ll be using preliminary June 2012 data in it. Last week ended on June 30th, so the preliminary data … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, PDO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 62 Comments

More data fiddling – this time in NOAA’s ENSO data

Plot below showing ONI -vs- Aqua Channel 5 Temperature from lukewarmplanet (not Tisdale) to illustrate what he is talking about in his upcoming book. – Anthony Comments on NOAA’s Recent Changes to the Oceanic NINO Index (ONI) Guest post by Bob … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, NOAA, PDO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 68 Comments

Crowdsourced Climate Complexity – Compiling the WUWT Potential Climatic Variables Reference Page

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments, which began on this thread on January, 15th 2011, and grew on January 22nd, 2011, February 10th, 2011, February 28th, 2011, June 30th, 2011 … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Announcements, Antarctic, Arctic, Carbon dioxide, Carbon sequestration, Citizen science, Climate data, clouds, Cosmic rays, dust storms, Earth, Education, Energy, ENSO, Environment, feedbacks, flooding, Forecasting, geothermal energy, Global warming, hurricanes, Land use land cover change, lightning, measurement, Methane, Modeling, Oceans, PDO, Science, Sea ice, snowfall, Temperature, tornadoes, UHI, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 132 Comments

The Ridiculousness Continues – Climate Complexity Compiled

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments on this thread and several others documented within, I’ve been compiling a summary of all potential climatic variables in order to build a conceptual … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, AMO, Antarctic, Arctic, Climate data, clouds, Cosmic rays, dust storms, Earth, Earthquakes, Energy, ENSO, feedbacks, geothermal energy, Gravity, hurricanes, Methane, Oceans, PDO, petroleum, Science, Sea ice, Snow, Solar, solar power, thorium power, tornadoes, wind power | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 266 Comments

Global temps in a Crash as AGW proponents Crash the Economy

By Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell Analytics When the PDO turned cold, most of the meteorological and climate community understood that the pattern was turning very similar the last time of the PDO reversal, the 1950s, and it was a matter of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, PDO, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , | 313 Comments

Yet Even More Discussions About The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Guest post by Bob Tisdale INTRODUCTION I’ve written numerous posts that describe the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), what the PDO represents, and, just as important, what it does not represent. For those new to the PDO and for those needing … Continue reading

Posted in PDO | Tagged , | 100 Comments

New WUWT Oceanic Oscillation Page – With Link Tutorial

Introducing WUWT’s newest addition, the Oceanic Oscillation Page, which includes graphs and graphics,on Oceanic Oscillations including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño/La Niña and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO). It was a struggle to find content for this page, … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate data, ENSO, measurement, Oceans, PDO, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 17 Comments

Arctic Cycles – AMO+PDO corresponds to Arctic station group

The following figure shows the AMO+PDO (black line above changed to red below) superimposed on the Arctic average annual temperature shown at the beginning of this document.

Posted in AMO, Arctic, PDO | Tagged | 68 Comments

Interannual Terrestrial Oscillations

There’s a saying, “timing is everything”. After reading this, I think it is more true than ever. In other news. Paul Vaughn is giving Bob Tisdale serious competition in the contest over who can fit the most graphs into a … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, PDO | Tagged , , , , | 140 Comments

Nenana 2011 Ice Classic result

In case you missed it, the official result for 2011 is in: The Tanana River officially broke up on May 4, 2011 at 4:24 PM and here’s the clock Here’s the context of the date in comparison with all of … Continue reading

Posted in Oceans, PDO | Tagged , , , | 28 Comments

Stockwell asks: Is the Atmosphere Still Warming?

Guest post by Dr. David Stockwell I suspect that the only really convincing evidence against global warming is a sustained period of no global warming or cooling — climate sensitivity and feedbacks are too esoteric. I have followed the recent … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, PDO | Tagged , , | 98 Comments

Arctic Temperatures and Ice – Why it is Natural Variability

By Joe D’Aleo, CCM On October 21st the Associated Press hit the wires with a story entitled ”Sea Ice Melting as Arctic Temperatures Rise.” The temperatures in the arctic have indeed risen in recent years and ice has declined, bottoming … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Arctic, PDO | 66 Comments