Category Archives: Modeling

Global warming – more complex than we thought

Posted on February 1, 2013 by

From the University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST, more modeling mania for the future. New research shows complexity of global warming Greenhouse gases versus solar heating Global warming from greenhouse gases affects rainfall patterns in the world differently than that from … Continue reading →

About these ads
Posted in Global warming, Modeling, Rainfall | Tagged , , , , , , , | 133 Comments

Climate cycles and political alarmism

Posted on January 30, 2013 by

Dr. Michael Asten writes to alert me of this article in the Australian, with this advice: The overwhelming conclusion ought to be that cycles should be built into at least some of the climate models in order to explore scenarios.  But … Continue reading →

Posted in Alarmism, extreme weather, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 22 Comments

Finally, a climate forecast model that works?

Posted on January 24, 2013 by

Note: Short term predictions are relatively easy, it remains to be seen if this holds up over the long term. I have my doubts. – Anthony Guest post by Frank Lemke The Global Warming Prediction Project is an impartial, transparent, … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 207 Comments

The real IPCC AR5 draft bombshell – plus a poll

Posted on December 14, 2012 by

Take a look at Figure 1.4 from the AR5 draft (shown below). The gray bars in Fig 1.4 are irrelevant (because they flubbed the definition of them), the colored bands are the ones that matter because they provide bounds for … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate data, IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak, Modeling | Tagged , | 372 Comments

New study shows: climate models still struggle with medium- term climate forecasts

Posted on December 7, 2012 by

How cold will a winter be in two years?  How well are the most important climate models able to predict the weather conditions for the coming year or even the next decade? The Potsdam scientists Dr. Dörthe Handorf and Prof. … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Once again, reality trumps models – Pacific SST’s are flat

Posted on December 6, 2012 by

Model-Data Comparison: Pacific Ocean Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Guest post by Bob Tisdale I’ll be adding the Pacific Ocean (60S-65N, 120E-80W) sea surface temperature anomalies to my monthly updates. See Figure 1 for the area covered by those coordinates. Why … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , | 77 Comments

Projecting doom from our current wildfire year using climate models

Posted on December 5, 2012 by

From the AGU fall meeting in SFO. Personally, I think wildfire risk (especially in the USA) would be better predicted by observing ocean patterns (ENSO, PDO, AMO etc.) than trying to apply climate models. Further, it seems they are weighting … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling, Wildfires | 53 Comments

Another climate sticky wicket – ‘climate change is poised to reduce the viability of the maple syrup industry’

Posted on November 20, 2012 by

From the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies  where if you can get past the headline, this is notable: “We found that global climate models omit factors critical to understanding forest response, such as hydrology, soil conditions, and plant-animal interactions.” Point … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate_change, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 82 Comments

Isaac Held’s 2-box model: another failed ocean-equilibration excuse for dismissing solar warming

Posted on November 15, 2012 by

Guest post by Alec Rawls Dr. Isaac Held, who models fluid dynamics at NOAA, dismisses a solar explanation for late 20th century warming by invoking a 2-box model of ocean equilibration. In his model an upper upper ocean layer (100m … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 133 Comments

Trenberth dials up the warming predictions

Posted on November 8, 2012 by

From NCAR: Future warming likely to be on high side of climate projections, analysis finds November 08, 2012 BOULDER—Climate model projections showing a greater rise in global temperature are likely to prove more accurate than those showing a lesser rise, … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 196 Comments

Claim: Trigger for Earth’s last big freeze identified

Posted on November 5, 2012 by

From the University of Massachusetts at Amherst AMHERST, Mass. – For more than 30 years, climate scientists have debated whether flood waters from melting of the enormous Laurentide Ice Sheet, which ushered in the last major cold episode on Earth … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling, Paleoclimatology | Tagged , , , , , | 90 Comments

Claim: Five climate-forcing mechanisms govern 20,000 years of climate change

Posted on October 12, 2012 by

FOREWORD: I don’t agree with many of the claims made in this paper, particularly the retrograde tri-synodic Jupiter/Saturn cycle claims. This is not a peer reviewed paper. That said, I’m willing to allow discussion of it, so be skeptical of these … Continue reading →

Posted in Cosmic rays, Modeling, Paleoclimatology, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 347 Comments

Untested claim: increased CO2 helps glacier ice to crack

Posted on October 10, 2012 by

From the Institute of Physics , something so overreaching I just can’t believe the Institute of Physics would put out a press release on it.  Where does one start with stuff like this? This is all modeling, they haven’t even … Continue reading →

Posted in Alarmism, Antarctic, Glaciers, Modeling | Tagged , , | 132 Comments

Another model failure – seeing a sea of red where there is none

Posted on October 8, 2012 by

Seeing red just took on a whole new meaning – Anthony Model-Data Comparison – Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – November 1981 through September 2012 Guest post by Bob Tisdale This is not the monthly sea surface temperature update. See the post … Continue reading →

Posted in ENSO, Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , | 53 Comments

New paper predicts SST temperature based on Pacific Centennial Oscillation

Posted on October 3, 2012 by

Here’s figure 18, which I found interesting, especially the red line. – Anthony Guest post by Bob Tisdale Today, blogger “slimething” left me a link to the Karnauskas et al (2012) paper A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs. … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , | 38 Comments

Climate lab in a container on the high seas

Posted on October 1, 2012 by

From the Brookhaven National Laboratory: Yearlong MAGIC Climate Study Launches Climate instruments mounted aboard the Horizon Spirit container ship begin taking data The Horizon Spirit makes the round trip between Los Angeles and Hawaii every two weeks. UPTON, NY — A … Continue reading →

Posted in clouds, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 42 Comments

There ‘could’ be more Antarctic melt worries

Posted on September 20, 2012 by

While the Antarctic is making new records for more ice this week, we have another press release with “could” science in it. Image: National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Timing is everything I guess, but I really have to … Continue reading →

Posted in Antarctic, Modeling | Tagged , | 105 Comments

Climate Models shown to be inaccurate less than 30 years out

Posted on September 18, 2012 by

From the University of Arizona (h/t to WUWT reader Miguel Rakiewicz): A new study has found that climate-prediction models are good at predicting long-term climate patterns on a global scale but lose their edge when applied to time frames shorter … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , | 97 Comments

AR5 Climate Forecasts: What to Believe

Posted on August 23, 2012 by

Guest post by Pat Frank The summary of results from version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has come out. [1] CMIP5 is evaluating the state-of-the-art general circulation climate models (GCMs) that will be used in the IPCC’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , | 117 Comments

Lindzen at Sandia National Labs: ‘climate models are flawed’

Posted on July 25, 2012 by

This press release was provided by Sandia National Labs: In an effort to shed light on the wide spectrum of thought regarding the causes and extent of changes in Earth’s climate, Sandia National Laboratories has invited experts from a wide … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , | 188 Comments