Category Archives: Modeling

New study says ‘robust modeling’ predicted Antarctic sea ice to decrease, but the ice defies modeling

For those of you that have been looking for that point of reference about Antarctica’s increasing sea ice in contrast to the shrinking ice in the Arctic, look no further. A new study recently published in the Quarterly Journal of … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate News, Modeling, Sea ice | 88 Comments

The IPCC discards its models

Who will believe the CMIP5 models, after the IPCC plenary had to discount their temperature projections? Guest essay by Barry Brill Table SPM.2 Projected change in global mean surface temperature (°C) for the mid- and late 21st century relative to … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | 84 Comments

Now it’s the fungi carbon footprint that isn’t in climate models

From a long line of missing things in climate models and the University of Texas at Austin: Symbiotic fungi inhabiting plant roots have major impact on atmospheric carbon, scientists say AUSTIN, Texas — Microscopic fungi that live in plants’ roots … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon footprint, Modeling | Tagged , | 167 Comments

Questions Policymakers Should Be Asking Climate Scientists Who Receive Government Funding

Even before the study of human-induced global warming became fashionable, tax dollars had funded a major portion of that research. Government organizations continue to supply the vast majority of the moneys for those research efforts. Yet with the tens of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Modeling | 31 Comments

Peer Review; Last Refuge of the (Uninformed) Troll

Current peer review science, by attempting to explain away model failure, in fact confirms that the science is wrong Guest essay by David M. Hoffer It has become a favorite tactic amongst trolls to declare their belief in peer reviewed … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Peer review | Tagged , , , , , , , | 244 Comments

Claim: Solar activity not a key cause of climate change, study shows

From the University of Edinburgh , another one-paper syndrome in the making funded by an NGO research council with a political mission to grab a headline. And, another poorly written press release where they don’t even cite the name of … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 182 Comments

The Magnificent Climate Heat Engine

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been reflecting over the last few days about how the climate system of the earth functions as a giant natural heat engine. A “heat engine”, whether natural or man-made, is a mechanism that converts … Continue reading

Posted in Albedo, Modeling, Radiative Imbalance | Tagged , , , | 496 Comments

Greg Laden Once Again Expresses Something Other Than Fact

In a recent visit to Steve Goddard’s blog, I came across the post Climate Scientists Always Trying To Rewrite Their Own History. It’s about a Tweet by Greg Laden, in which Laden states: .@LesJohnsonHrvat @SteveSGoddard @PeterGleick AGW Models do NOT … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Modeling, Sea ice | 90 Comments

Dave’s Top Ten Reasons Why the Oil Industry Doesn’t Spend its Billions on Disproving the Junk Science of AGW

Guest post by David Middleton In my Internet “debates” with warmists, I occasionally encounter challenges like this… We don’t yet not know the real global impact man has on the environment. It may be negligible. What we do know is … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Fun_stuff, Humor, James Hansen, Modeling, Obama Climate Plan, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 109 Comments

On the Futility of Long-Range Numerical Climate Prediction

Note: two events at AGU13 this morning dovetail in with this essay. The first, a slide from Dr. Judith Lean which says: “There are no operational forecasts of global climate change”. The second was a tweet by Dr. Gavin Schmidt, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 265 Comments

Mechanical Models

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [NOTE the update at the end of the post.] I’ve continued my peregrinations following the spoor of the global climate model data cited in my last post. This was data from 19 global climate models. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 90 Comments

Study: lack of cloud physics biased climate models high

The Hockey Schtick brings this to our attention. It seems Dr. Roy Spencer was prescient with his observation: “The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, clouds, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 102 Comments

New paper: climate models short on ‘physics required for realistic simulation of the Earth system’

I’m pleased to have had a chance to to review this new paper just published in the Journal of Climate: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 46 Comments

The ‘worse than we thought’ model

From ETH Zurich: Underestimated future climate change? 25.11.2013 | Fabio Bergamin New model calculations by ETH researcher Thomas Frölicher show that global warming may continue after a stoppage of CO 2 emissions. We cannot rule out the possibility that climate … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 108 Comments

One Model, One Vote

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The IPCC, that charming bunch of United Nations intergovernmental bureaucrats masquerading as a scientific organization, views the world of climate models as a democracy. It seems that as long as your model is big enough, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , | 88 Comments

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Forecasting, MetOffice, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 51 Comments

Cowtan and Way’s ‘pausebuster’, still flat compared to models

Steve McIntyre writes: In the context of IPCC SOD FIgure 1.5 (or similar comparison of models and observations), CW13 is slightly warmer than HadCRUT4 but the difference is small relative to the discrepancy between models and observations; the CW13 variation … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic, Climate data, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , | 95 Comments

New study: ‘…climate system is only about half as sensitive to increasing CO2 as previously believed’

Warming since 1950s partly caused by El Niño HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (Nov. 11, 2013) – A natural shift to stronger warm El Niño events in the Pacific Ocean might be responsible for a substantial portion of the global warming recorded during … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 191 Comments