Category Archives: Modeling

The Magnificent Climate Heat Engine

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been reflecting over the last few days about how the climate system of the earth functions as a giant natural heat engine. A “heat engine”, whether natural or man-made, is a mechanism that converts … Continue reading

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Posted in Albedo, Modeling, Radiative Imbalance | Tagged , , , | 496 Comments

Greg Laden Once Again Expresses Something Other Than Fact

In a recent visit to Steve Goddard’s blog, I came across the post Climate Scientists Always Trying To Rewrite Their Own History. It’s about a Tweet by Greg Laden, in which Laden states: .@LesJohnsonHrvat @SteveSGoddard @PeterGleick AGW Models do NOT … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Modeling, Sea ice | 90 Comments

Dave’s Top Ten Reasons Why the Oil Industry Doesn’t Spend its Billions on Disproving the Junk Science of AGW

Guest post by David Middleton In my Internet “debates” with warmists, I occasionally encounter challenges like this… We don’t yet not know the real global impact man has on the environment. It may be negligible. What we do know is … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Fun_stuff, Humor, James Hansen, Modeling, Obama Climate Plan, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 109 Comments

On the Futility of Long-Range Numerical Climate Prediction

Note: two events at AGU13 this morning dovetail in with this essay. The first, a slide from Dr. Judith Lean which says: “There are no operational forecasts of global climate change”. The second was a tweet by Dr. Gavin Schmidt, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 265 Comments

Mechanical Models

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [NOTE the update at the end of the post.] I’ve continued my peregrinations following the spoor of the global climate model data cited in my last post. This was data from 19 global climate models. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 90 Comments

Study: lack of cloud physics biased climate models high

The Hockey Schtick brings this to our attention. It seems Dr. Roy Spencer was prescient with his observation: “The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, clouds, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 102 Comments

New paper: climate models short on ‘physics required for realistic simulation of the Earth system’

I’m pleased to have had a chance to to review this new paper just published in the Journal of Climate: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 46 Comments

The ‘worse than we thought’ model

From ETH Zurich: Underestimated future climate change? 25.11.2013 | Fabio Bergamin New model calculations by ETH researcher Thomas Frölicher show that global warming may continue after a stoppage of CO 2 emissions. We cannot rule out the possibility that climate … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 108 Comments

One Model, One Vote

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The IPCC, that charming bunch of United Nations intergovernmental bureaucrats masquerading as a scientific organization, views the world of climate models as a democracy. It seems that as long as your model is big enough, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , | 88 Comments

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Forecasting, MetOffice, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 51 Comments

Cowtan and Way’s ‘pausebuster’, still flat compared to models

Steve McIntyre writes: In the context of IPCC SOD FIgure 1.5 (or similar comparison of models and observations), CW13 is slightly warmer than HadCRUT4 but the difference is small relative to the discrepancy between models and observations; the CW13 variation … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic, Climate data, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , | 95 Comments

New study: ‘…climate system is only about half as sensitive to increasing CO2 as previously believed’

Warming since 1950s partly caused by El Niño HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (Nov. 11, 2013) – A natural shift to stronger warm El Niño events in the Pacific Ocean might be responsible for a substantial portion of the global warming recorded during … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 191 Comments

Climate models – worse than we thought

Observations Now Inconsistent with Climate Model Predictions for 25 (going on 35) Years By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels Question: How long will the fantasy that climate models are reliable indicators of the earth’s climate evolution persist … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , | 76 Comments

Tamino Resorts to Childish Attempts at Humor But Offers Nothing of Value

INITIAL NOTE: This post includes a link to and title of a recent post by Tamino, in which he attempted sophomoric humor in an effort to amuse his audience. While I realize responding to it at the same base level … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Modeling | 100 Comments

Epic Failure of the Canadian Climate Model

Guest Essay by: Ken Gregory The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis located at the University of Victoria in British Columbia submitted five runs of its climate model CanESM2 for use in the fifth assessment report of the International … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Modeling | Tagged , | 143 Comments

FROM SCIENCE…TO ART…TO HYPOTHETICALS

The new RCPs are not projections, probabilities, prophecies or pathways – they might possibly be potentialities. Guest essay by Barry Brill The IPCC begins with science: “In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | Tagged , , , , | 54 Comments

Dana Nuccitelli Can’t Come to Terms with the Death of the AGW Hypothesis

Dana Nuccitelli published an article today in The Guardian Does the global warming “pause” mean what you think it means?…a play off a line by Inigo Montoya from “The Princess Bride”. Dana has expressed his misunderstanding of one of the … Continue reading

Posted in Hiatus in Global Warming, Modeling, Ocean Heat Content | 179 Comments

The Button Collector or When does trend predict future values?

Guest essay By Kip Hansen INTRO: Statistical trends never determine future values in a data set. Trends do not and cannot predict future values. If these two statements make you yawn and say “Why would anyone even have to say … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , | 222 Comments

Another modeling shortcoming…

From the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies Carbon cycle models underestimate indirect role of animals Animal populations can have a far more significant impact on carbon storage and exchange in regional ecosystems than is typically recognized by global … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 53 Comments

Will Global Warming Increase the Intensity of El Niño?

FIRST CLIMATE MODELS HAVE TO BE ABLE TO SIMULATE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA PROCESSES—CAPABILITIES THEY CONTINUE TO LACK AFTER DECADES OF MODELING EFFORTS (PERSONALLY, I DON’T THINK THE MODELERS ARE REALLY TRYING) BBCNews published an article yesterday by Matt … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, ENSO, Modeling | 102 Comments

90 climate model projectons versus reality

Reality wins, it seems. Dr Roy Spencer writes: As seen in the following graphic, over the period of the satellite record (1979-2012), both the surface and satellite observations produce linear temperature trends which are below 87 of the 90 climate … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 103 Comments

Another Reason Why IPCC Predictions (Projections) Fail. AR5 Continues to Let The End Justify the Unscrupulous Means

Noble cause corruption in the process. Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball Someone said economists try to predict the tide by measuring one wave. The IPCC essentially try to predict (project) the global temperature by measuring one variable. The IPCC … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling, Noble Cause Corruption | Tagged , , , | 34 Comments

IPCC Still Delusional about Carbon Dioxide

Posted in Climate FAIL, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature | 42 Comments

No Matter How the CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Models Are Presented They Still Look Bad

UPDATE: I’ve added a comment to the end of the post about the use of 1990 as the start year. # # # After an initial look at how the IPCC elected to show their model-data comparison of global surface … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | Tagged , , , , | 103 Comments

Not only is the warming hiding in the ocean, it’s hiding in the future too

From the Carnegie Institution and the mind of Ken Caldeira, comes this “back to the future” style impossible to verify prediction (at least impossible now). Of course, in model-world and Hollywood, anything is provable possible. Climate change: Fast out of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Modeling | Tagged , | 122 Comments

Models Fail: Land versus Sea Surface Warming Rates

In Climate Models Fail, using a number of different datasets, I illustrated how the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report could not simulate climate variables such as surface temperatures (land surface air, sea surface and … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO, Modeling | 69 Comments

Hump Day Hilarity – looks like a tipping point to me

This bit of humor is courtesy of Dr. Roy Spencer, who made it a lead in for his recent blog post: A climate modeler increasing his model’s sensitivity.

Posted in Humor, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling, Satire | Tagged , , , , , | 73 Comments

A Quick Look at the HADGEM2-ES Simulations of Sea Surface Temperatures

There’s been an online disagreement between skeptics and the UKMO in recent days. See Bishop Hill’s post here, and Nic Lewis’s full discussion here. Nic’s discussion was also referenced in David Rose’s article in the Mail on Sunday. The UKMO’s … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Oceans, Sea Surface Temperature | 25 Comments

Lomborg: climate models are running way too hot

Guest essay by Bjørn Lomborg The current climate models are running way too hot. Over the past 30 years, they are at least predicting 71% too much heat. Maybe 159%. (see graph)

Posted in Climate News, Modeling | Tagged , | 125 Comments

National Academy of Sciences: climate models still ‘decades away’ from being useful

From the National Academy of Sciences report A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling: Computer models that simulate the climate are an integral part of providing climate information, in particular for future changes in the climate. Overall, climate modeling has … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 114 Comments

Current Crop of Computer Models “Close to Useless”

From the Institute for Energy Research: … It is this second class of models, the economic/climate hybrids called Integrated Assessment Models, that Pindyck discusses. Pindyck’s paper is titled, “Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?” Here is his … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , | 86 Comments

Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different computers using the same code

New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad disagreement in the output that increases with … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Uncertainty | Tagged , , , | 281 Comments

Congenital Cyclomania Redux

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, I wasn’t going to mention this paper, but it seems to be getting some play in the blogosphere. Our friend Nicola Scafetta is back again, this time with a paper called “Solar and planetary … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 461 Comments

A low-sensitivity climate model that outperforms the Met Office’s HADGEM2

Climate sensitivity is IMHO, the most important unresolved issue in climate science. A number of recent papers, including the IPCC AR5 leak, plus the recent Economist leak of a later AR5 draft are pointing to lower climate sensitivities than what … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

Quote of the week – Nature on the failure of climate models

From the world of Claimatology™, comes this smackdown from Nature.

Posted in Climate News, Modeling, Quote of the Week | Tagged , , , , | 153 Comments