Category Archives: Forecasting

How well did Hansen (1988) do?

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein. The graphic from RealClimate asks “How well did Hansen et al (1988) do?” They compare actual temperature measurements through 2012 (GISTEMP and HadCRUT4) with Hansen’s 1988 Scenarios “A”, “B”, and “C”. The answer (see my … Continue reading

About these ads
Posted in Carbon dioxide, Forecasting, Modeling, NASA GISS | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 212 Comments

I offer @ClimateOfGavin help understanding events -vs- trends

Yesterday, when Climategate 3 was released, the ever flippant Dr. Gavin Schmidt made this Tweet in response: Source: Google Trends, searching the word “climategate” from December 2009 to March 2013 http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Climategate&date=12%2F2009%2040m&cmpt=q It seems that Dr. Schmidt doesn’t understand the difference … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Gavin Schmidt, media, Satire | Tagged , , , , | 69 Comments

Quote of the Week – blaming Nature for poor model performance

There’s not much I can say about this quote from the Washington Post’s Joel Achenbach as it stands on its own quite well. The context of this quote is article on the bust of a forecast that was to be … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, media, Modeling, Quote of the Week | Tagged , , | 97 Comments

A new buzzword for pushing climate fear? ‘Explosive Cyclones’

After the past weekend’s silliness over a snowstorm that wasn’t all that much different than Nor’Easters of the past, I can imagine some CNN anchor using the phrase badly in the not too distant future, like suggesting sending in a … Continue reading

Posted in extreme weather, Forecasting | Tagged , , , | 29 Comments

Forecasts of the Boston Blizzard

I thought I’d save a few forecast graphics now, to see how they hold up when the snow event is over. First, here’s the one from NWS Boston. I can’t say I much like their color scheme, as it gives … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Snow | Tagged , , , , , , , | 94 Comments

Climate seers as blind guides

Forecasters often use unscientific computer models Guest post by J. Scott Armstrong Illustration by Greg Groesch for The Washington Times The science of forecasting is complex. After 50 years spent studying the issue, I have found there is plenty of … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 45 Comments

Expert predicts ‘Monsoon Britain’

Guest post by Paul Homewood h/t Robuk A study, by Professor Stuart Lane of Durham University back in 2008, appears to have been remarkably percipient. Written just after the extremely wet summer of 2007, the study suggests that, far from … Continue reading

Posted in Climate_change, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 83 Comments

Finally, a climate forecast model that works?

Note: Short term predictions are relatively easy, it remains to be seen if this holds up over the long term. I have my doubts. – Anthony Guest post by Frank Lemke The Global Warming Prediction Project is an impartial, transparent, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 207 Comments

So far, Al Gore appears to be losing ‘the climate bet’

No cause for alarm at five-year mid-point of the Armstrong-Gore climate “bet” By J. Scott Armstrong In 2007, University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong’s attention was drawn to former VP Gore’s concerns about global warming. Having spent five decades … Continue reading

Posted in Al Gore, Forecasting, Global warming | Tagged , , | 97 Comments

Great moments in failed predictions

UPDATE: New table added below. While searching for something else, I came across this entertaining collection of grand predictive failures related to resources and climate change, along with some of the biggest predictive failures of Paul Ehrlich. I thought it … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 269 Comments

The other big story today: BBC forced to admit global warming ‘static’

Forecast for warming revised downward. The UK Met Office has revised one of its forecasts for how much the world may warm in the next few years. It says that the average temperature is likely to rise by 0.43 C … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC | Tagged , , | 301 Comments

Wrong Prediction, Wrong Science; Unless It’s Government Climate Science.

Guest post by Dr. Tim Ball In a comment on the WUWT article about the abject failure of UKMO weather forecasts, “Slingo Pretends She Knows Why It’s Been So Wet!”, Doug Huffman wrote, “Each forecast must be accompanied by the … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged | 141 Comments

New study shows: climate models still struggle with medium- term climate forecasts

How cold will a winter be in two years?  How well are the most important climate models able to predict the weather conditions for the coming year or even the next decade? The Potsdam scientists Dr. Dörthe Handorf and Prof. … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Flu forecasts using weather, not climate

Flu outbreaks predicted with weather forecast techniques BOULDER—Scientists at Columbia University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have adapted techniques used in modern weather prediction to generate local forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks. By predicting the timing and severity … Continue reading

Posted in Economy-health, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 48 Comments

Cooling in the near future?

Global Cooling – Climate and Weather Forecasting. Guest post by Dr. Norman Page Introduction. Over the last 10 years or so as new data have accumulated the general trend and likely future course of  climate change has become reasonably clear. The earth … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, PDO | Tagged , , , | 177 Comments

‘Their finest hour’

Meteorologist Mike Smith, over at Meteorological Musings has a great story to relay. While the source of the quote is from Churchhill, it makes me think of Apollo 13 and Gene Krantz.  Mike writes of the effort put into forecasting … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , | 30 Comments

Pielke Jr. on Lessons of the LʼAquila Earthquake Lawsuit – comparisons to lessons learned on NWS forecast failures

After learning of the guilty verdict today, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. sends this along noting that “it is a little bit more complicated than not being able to forecast earthquakes”. From: bridges vol. 31, October 2011 / Pielke’s Perspective By … Continue reading

Posted in Earth, Earthquakes, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 84 Comments

Fading El Niño complicates NOAA’s winter forecast

Press release:  Elusive El Niño challenges NOAA’s 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , | 53 Comments

Another cold blast for the USA in 7-10 days

Dr. Ryan Maue alerts us of this forecast via his Twitter feed: ECMWF 12z drops cold hammer on NW and Western US in 7-10 days. Trending much colder… Here’s the forecast graphic:

Posted in Forecasting | 36 Comments

Researchers Devise More Accurate Method for Predicting Hurricane Activity

Kudos to NC State for providing a complete press release with the name of the paper and the abstract included. I wish more science PR writers would follow this example rather than make the reader go hunting for these things … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, hurricanes, Weather | Tagged , , | 22 Comments

AR5 Climate Forecasts: What to Believe

Guest post by Pat Frank The summary of results from version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has come out. [1] CMIP5 is evaluating the state-of-the-art general circulation climate models (GCMs) that will be used in the IPCC’s … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , | 117 Comments

Putting Piers Corbyn to the test

I’ve been given a link in email today to a public forecast page for July by weather prognosticator Piers Corbyn, which you can investigate in full yourself here. I find his web pages and forecasts hard to read, and even … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 415 Comments

James Hansen’s climate forecast of 1988: a whopping 150% wrong

From their Die kalte Sonne website, Professor Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Lüning put up this guest Post by Prof. Jan-Erik Solheim (Oslo) on Hansen’s 1988 forecast, and show that Hansen was and is, way off the mark. h/t to … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, James Hansen, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 237 Comments

* As hurricane season starts, the FSU hurricane season forecast is the odd man out citing “active”

*UPDATE: FSU has made a change, the press agent writes to me with this update: The lead researcher on the hurricane forecast has requested a change to the headline to make it clearer, and I have made that change to … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, hurricanes | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 35 Comments

Sea Ice News Volume 3 Number 6 – Sea Ice Outlook forecasting contest for 2012 is online

First some news on the status of the WUWT Sea Ice Page. The JAXA imagery, which has been DOA ever since the failure of the AMSRE instrument on the AQUA satellite is now operational again. The plot is below: JAXA … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic, Forecasting, Sea Ice News | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 47 Comments

NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Contact: Chris Vaccaro FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 301-713-0622 May 24, 2012 NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew underscores necessity to prepare every year Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, hurricanes | Tagged , , , , | 40 Comments

Premonitions of the Fall (in temperature)

Guest post by David Archibald The first prediction of the current climatic minimum was made by Hubbert Lamb in 1970 in a report (Weiss and Lamb) for the German Navy. He did it by making a reconstructed record of the … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Paleoclimatology, Solar | Tagged , , , , , | 198 Comments

Modeling in the red

From an Ohio State University press release where they see a lot of red, and little else, yet another warm certainty model: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PROJECTS FUTURE TEMPERATURES IN NORTH AMERICA COLUMBUS, Ohio – For the first time, researchers have been … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 95 Comments

Quite possibly the funniest weather/climate photo, evah

Readers may recall my story from last night about the Met office and their spectacular failure of a forecast for April. See Met Office April Forecast: “…drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.”. Today I got confirmation of the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Forecasting, Humor | Tagged , , , , | 153 Comments

Met Office April Forecast: “…drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.”

UPDATE: Forecast humor on steroids, here You can’t make up FAIL like this. First this story in the BBC Today: Now let’s have a look at the official Met Office forecast for April, issued on March 23rd, 2012:

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 215 Comments

Klotzbach and Gray 2012 forecast – cooler Atlantic – fewer hurricanes

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012 We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting, hurricanes, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , | 37 Comments

The Met Office COPing response

Willis Eschenbach notes that the COP predictions from the Met Office, which I highlighted here, are all over the road. He writes: In the most recent one, they didn’t make a prediction, but they included the historical record, so let … Continue reading

Posted in COP conferences, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 64 Comments

Crowdsourced Climate Complexity – Compiling the WUWT Potential Climatic Variables Reference Page

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments, which began on this thread on January, 15th 2011, and grew on January 22nd, 2011, February 10th, 2011, February 28th, 2011, June 30th, 2011 … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Announcements, Antarctic, Arctic, Carbon dioxide, Carbon sequestration, Citizen science, Climate data, clouds, Cosmic rays, dust storms, Earth, Education, Energy, ENSO, Environment, feedbacks, flooding, Forecasting, geothermal energy, Global warming, hurricanes, Land use land cover change, lightning, measurement, Methane, Modeling, Oceans, PDO, Science, Sea ice, snowfall, Temperature, tornadoes, UHI, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 132 Comments

Quantifying the Solar Cycle 24 Temperature Decline

Guest post by David Archibald Three wise Norwegians – Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum – have just published a paper entitled “The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24”. It is available online … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 210 Comments

New WUWT Feature – Scafetta’s forecast -vs- the IPCC forecast

I have a new feature page on WUWT that highlights the work of Nicola Scafetta and his solar-lunar cycle forecast model as it compares to the IPCC forecasts and global temperature reality using HadCRUT surface temperature data. Working with Dr. … Continue reading

Posted in Announcements, Forecasting, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , ,