Category Archives: Forecasting

Cooling in the near future?

Posted on November 19, 2012 by

Global Cooling – Climate and Weather Forecasting. Guest post by Dr. Norman Page Introduction. Over the last 10 years or so as new data have accumulated the general trend and likely future course of  climate change has become reasonably clear. The earth … Continue reading →

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Posted in Forecasting, PDO | Tagged , , , | 177 Comments

‘Their finest hour’

Posted on November 1, 2012 by

Meteorologist Mike Smith, over at Meteorological Musings has a great story to relay. While the source of the quote is from Churchhill, it makes me think of Apollo 13 and Gene Krantz.  Mike writes of the effort put into forecasting … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , | 30 Comments

Pielke Jr. on Lessons of the LʼAquila Earthquake Lawsuit – comparisons to lessons learned on NWS forecast failures

Posted on October 22, 2012 by

After learning of the guilty verdict today, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. sends this along noting that “it is a little bit more complicated than not being able to forecast earthquakes”. From: bridges vol. 31, October 2011 / Pielke’s Perspective By … Continue reading →

Posted in Earth, Earthquakes, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 84 Comments

Fading El Niño complicates NOAA’s winter forecast

Posted on October 18, 2012 by

Press release:  Elusive El Niño challenges NOAA’s 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , | 53 Comments

Another cold blast for the USA in 7-10 days

Posted on October 18, 2012 by

Dr. Ryan Maue alerts us of this forecast via his Twitter feed: ECMWF 12z drops cold hammer on NW and Western US in 7-10 days. Trending much colder… Here’s the forecast graphic:

Posted in Forecasting | 36 Comments

Researchers Devise More Accurate Method for Predicting Hurricane Activity

Posted on September 11, 2012 by

Kudos to NC State for providing a complete press release with the name of the paper and the abstract included. I wish more science PR writers would follow this example rather than make the reader go hunting for these things … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, hurricanes, Weather | Tagged , , | 22 Comments

AR5 Climate Forecasts: What to Believe

Posted on August 23, 2012 by

Guest post by Pat Frank The summary of results from version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has come out. [1] CMIP5 is evaluating the state-of-the-art general circulation climate models (GCMs) that will be used in the IPCC’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , | 117 Comments

Putting Piers Corbyn to the test

Posted on July 5, 2012 by

I’ve been given a link in email today to a public forecast page for July by weather prognosticator Piers Corbyn, which you can investigate in full yourself here. I find his web pages and forecasts hard to read, and even … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 415 Comments

James Hansen’s climate forecast of 1988: a whopping 150% wrong

Posted on June 15, 2012 by

From their Die kalte Sonne website, Professor Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Lüning put up this guest Post by Prof. Jan-Erik Solheim (Oslo) on Hansen’s 1988 forecast, and show that Hansen was and is, way off the mark. h/t to … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, James Hansen, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 237 Comments

* As hurricane season starts, the FSU hurricane season forecast is the odd man out citing “active”

Posted on June 1, 2012 by

*UPDATE: FSU has made a change, the press agent writes to me with this update: The lead researcher on the hurricane forecast has requested a change to the headline to make it clearer, and I have made that change to … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, hurricanes | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 35 Comments

Sea Ice News Volume 3 Number 6 – Sea Ice Outlook forecasting contest for 2012 is online

Posted on June 1, 2012 by

First some news on the status of the WUWT Sea Ice Page. The JAXA imagery, which has been DOA ever since the failure of the AMSRE instrument on the AQUA satellite is now operational again. The plot is below: JAXA … Continue reading →

Posted in Arctic, Forecasting, Sea Ice News | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 47 Comments

NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Posted on May 24, 2012 by

Contact: Chris Vaccaro FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 301-713-0622 May 24, 2012 NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew underscores necessity to prepare every year Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, hurricanes | Tagged , , , , | 40 Comments

Premonitions of the Fall (in temperature)

Posted on May 20, 2012 by

Guest post by David Archibald The first prediction of the current climatic minimum was made by Hubbert Lamb in 1970 in a report (Weiss and Lamb) for the German Navy. He did it by making a reconstructed record of the … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Paleoclimatology, Solar | Tagged , , , , , | 198 Comments

Modeling in the red

Posted on May 15, 2012 by

From an Ohio State University press release where they see a lot of red, and little else, yet another warm certainty model: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PROJECTS FUTURE TEMPERATURES IN NORTH AMERICA COLUMBUS, Ohio – For the first time, researchers have been … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 95 Comments

Quite possibly the funniest weather/climate photo, evah

Posted on May 1, 2012 by

Readers may recall my story from last night about the Met office and their spectacular failure of a forecast for April. See Met Office April Forecast: “…drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.”. Today I got confirmation of the … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate FAIL, Forecasting, Humor | Tagged , , , , | 153 Comments

Met Office April Forecast: “…drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.”

Posted on April 30, 2012 by

UPDATE: Forecast humor on steroids, here You can’t make up FAIL like this. First this story in the BBC Today: Now let’s have a look at the official Met Office forecast for April, issued on March 23rd, 2012:

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 215 Comments

Klotzbach and Gray 2012 forecast – cooler Atlantic – fewer hurricanes

Posted on April 23, 2012 by

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012 We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the … Continue reading →

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting, hurricanes, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , | 37 Comments

The Met Office COPing response

Posted on April 16, 2012 by

Willis Eschenbach notes that the COP predictions from the Met Office, which I highlighted here, are all over the road. He writes: In the most recent one, they didn’t make a prediction, but they included the historical record, so let … Continue reading →

Posted in COP conferences, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 64 Comments

Crowdsourced Climate Complexity – Compiling the WUWT Potential Climatic Variables Reference Page

Posted on February 19, 2012 by

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments, which began on this thread on January, 15th 2011, and grew on January 22nd, 2011, February 10th, 2011, February 28th, 2011, June 30th, 2011 … Continue reading →

Posted in AMO, Announcements, Antarctic, Arctic, Carbon dioxide, Carbon sequestration, Citizen science, Climate data, clouds, Cosmic rays, dust storms, Earth, Education, Energy, ENSO, Environment, feedbacks, flooding, Forecasting, geothermal energy, Global warming, hurricanes, Land use land cover change, lightning, measurement, Methane, Modeling, Oceans, PDO, Science, Sea ice, snowfall, Temperature, tornadoes, UHI, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 132 Comments

Quantifying the Solar Cycle 24 Temperature Decline

Posted on February 11, 2012 by

Guest post by David Archibald Three wise Norwegians – Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum – have just published a paper entitled “The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24”. It is available online … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 210 Comments