Category Archives: Forecasting

Digital Signal Processing analysis of global temperature data time series suggests global cooling ahead

This DSP engineer is often tasked with extracting spurious signals from noisy data. He submits this interesting result of applying these techniques to the HadCRUT temperature anomaly data. Digital Signal Processing analysis suggests cooling ahead in the immediate future with … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate data, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , | 313 Comments

A ‘head scratcher’ – No Atlantic Hurricane by August in First Time in 11 Years

Where are all the hurricanes Al Gore, Bill McKibben, Joe Romm, and Brad Johnson say are supposed to happen due to global warming? Article includes most recent forecast from Klotzbach and Gray Bloomberg News: August is about to end without … Continue reading

Posted in extreme weather, Forecasting, hurricanes | Tagged , , , , , | 127 Comments

Schellnhuber thinks he can forecast El Niño a year in advance

From the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) where breakthroughs happen even before they have a proven track record. It appears he was able to predict one event last year in 2012 from the method run in 2011, but … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Hottest weather of the season likely coming

Model output from WeatherBell added by Anthony By Steve Pierce, AMS chapter president, Oregon Portland, Oregon (June 25th 2013) -  “The hottest weather of the season is likely on the way for the Pacific Northwest this coming weekend, and it … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Weather | Tagged , , , | 78 Comments

Two years to a 1740-type event?

Guest essay by David Archibald Wiggle-matching has been used by the best. Hubert Lamb, considered to be the most meticulous climatologist of all time, used wiggle-matching in this wind data graph he published in 1988: He had plotted up 600 … Continue reading

Posted in Curious things, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , | 136 Comments

12 Reasons Why The Met Office Is Alarmed

From the GWPF: Met Office To Hold Crisis Summit On Epic Forecast Failures The Met Office’s temperature forecasts issued in 12 out of the last 13 years have been too warm. None of the forecasts issued ended up too cold. … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, MetOffice | Tagged , , , , , , , | 154 Comments

FOIA obtained Met Office document shows them to be clueless about what affects our climate, and, in particular, what caused the unusual weather last year

Maybe all they need is a bigger computer Guest post by by Paul Homewood Following the wet summer in the UK last year, the  Met Office provided the Environment Agency with a briefing document, giving an overview of the weather. … Continue reading

Posted in FOI, Forecasting, MetOffice | Tagged , | 105 Comments

Uncertainty be damned, let’s make ice and sea level projections anyway

‘A better path’ toward projecting, planning for rising seas on a warmer Earth From Princeton University, by Morgan Kelly, Office of Communications More useful projections of sea level are possible despite substantial uncertainty about the future behavior of massive ice … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , | 88 Comments

Global Cooling – Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions

Guest post by Dr. Norman Page 1. Methods and Premises My approach to climate science is based on Baconian empirical principles as presented in a series of earlier posts on this site (http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com)  notably: 6/18/10 Thirty Year Climate Forecast 7/19/12 30 … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , | 71 Comments

“Global warming predictions prove accurate”– Guardian

Guest post by Paul Homewood http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/27/climate-change-model-global-warming The Mail on Sunday ran an article by David Rose a couple of weeks ago, pointing out just how woeful most climate models had been in predicting global temperatures in the last decade or … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Global warming | Tagged , , | 129 Comments

Newsbytes: The Met office blunders again – warm bias in forecasting

From The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser Met Office Apologises For Wrong Forecast – And Makes Another One  Warm Bias: The Met Office’s Disastrous Track Record Met Office apologises for warning of ‘dry spell’ before wettest April on record. –The … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, MetOffice | Tagged , | 66 Comments

How well did Hansen (1988) do?

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein. The graphic from RealClimate asks “How well did Hansen et al (1988) do?” They compare actual temperature measurements through 2012 (GISTEMP and HadCRUT4) with Hansen’s 1988 Scenarios “A”, “B”, and “C”. The answer (see my … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Forecasting, Modeling, NASA GISS | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 212 Comments

I offer @ClimateOfGavin help understanding events -vs- trends

Yesterday, when Climategate 3 was released, the ever flippant Dr. Gavin Schmidt made this Tweet in response: Source: Google Trends, searching the word “climategate” from December 2009 to March 2013 http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Climategate&date=12%2F2009%2040m&cmpt=q It seems that Dr. Schmidt doesn’t understand the difference … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Gavin Schmidt, media, Satire | Tagged , , , , | 69 Comments

Quote of the Week – blaming Nature for poor model performance

There’s not much I can say about this quote from the Washington Post’s Joel Achenbach as it stands on its own quite well. The context of this quote is article on the bust of a forecast that was to be … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, media, Modeling, Quote of the Week | Tagged , , | 97 Comments

A new buzzword for pushing climate fear? ‘Explosive Cyclones’

After the past weekend’s silliness over a snowstorm that wasn’t all that much different than Nor’Easters of the past, I can imagine some CNN anchor using the phrase badly in the not too distant future, like suggesting sending in a … Continue reading

Posted in extreme weather, Forecasting | Tagged , , , | 29 Comments

Forecasts of the Boston Blizzard

I thought I’d save a few forecast graphics now, to see how they hold up when the snow event is over. First, here’s the one from NWS Boston. I can’t say I much like their color scheme, as it gives … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Snow | Tagged , , , , , , , | 94 Comments

Climate seers as blind guides

Forecasters often use unscientific computer models Guest post by J. Scott Armstrong Illustration by Greg Groesch for The Washington Times The science of forecasting is complex. After 50 years spent studying the issue, I have found there is plenty of … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 45 Comments

Expert predicts ‘Monsoon Britain’

Guest post by Paul Homewood h/t Robuk A study, by Professor Stuart Lane of Durham University back in 2008, appears to have been remarkably percipient. Written just after the extremely wet summer of 2007, the study suggests that, far from … Continue reading

Posted in Climate_change, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 83 Comments