Category Archives: Forecasting

El Niño is just not paying attention to climate models – looks like a bust

In the past week both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) scaled back forecasts for a big El Niño warming event in 2014. The models are now on the downswing after being up … Continue reading

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Posted in ENSO, Forecasting, Sea Surface Temperature | 100 Comments

‘Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.’

That headline is attributed to physicist Niels Bohr, but a later more popular version is attributed to Yogi Berra. But. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence is murky. That said, whether you are making climate predictions, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Fun_stuff, Modeling | 119 Comments

Latest projection shows Hurricane Arthur battering the Outer Banks on the Fourth of July

WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi writes in with an update. Arthur is predicted to reach hurricane strength and have strong winds. The Fourth of July for the outer banks looks dire. Storm surge will also be a huge factor if the storm … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, hurricanes, Weather | 76 Comments

Bastardi: ‘potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend’

UPDATE: Latest GFDL model output suggests Bastardi could be right, see below. UPDATE2: New information from Bastardi here shows 4th of July nightmare is shaping up to be true. The Case for Rapid Development Feedback of a Potential Tropical Storm: … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, hurricanes, Weather | 98 Comments

The Weather Forecast That Saved D-Day

The most important weather forecast in history In memory of my father Hans who, in 1944, took part in the liberation of Europe with the Royal Engineers in the Italian Campaign. –Benny Peiser  

Posted in Forecasting | 200 Comments

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season

From NOAA: El Niño expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season. The main driver of … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, hurricanes, Weather | 38 Comments

Your chance to predict future El Niño headlines

Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying: I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting, Fun_stuff | 209 Comments

Claim: Climate Models Underestimate Costs to Future Generations

One wonders how they can make claims like that when we see models vs reality like this: Future generations will have to pay more for today’s carbon emissions than what governments across the world currently understand. The climate models used … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | 51 Comments

NOAA issues spring outlook, predicts flooding in the usual places, more drought for Cali and the Southwest

NOAA predicts moderate flood potential in Midwest, elevated risk of ice jams; California and Southwest stuck with drought March 20, 2014 According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in half of the continental United States are at minor or … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Forecasting, NOAA | 32 Comments

JLI Final Forecasts for 2014

Guest Post By Walter Dnes The NOAA(NCDC) January data set update was delayed. It came in during the afternoon/evening of March 6th. With all the January data being in, now is the time for the January Leading Indicator “JLI” algorithm … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Lower Troposphere Temperature, Temperature | Tagged , , , , | 68 Comments

Government Weather and Climate Forecasts Are Failures

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball In general, we look for a new law by the following process: First we guess it; then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | 78 Comments

JLI First Forecasts

Image Credit: Walter Dnes By Walter Dnes – Edited by Just The Facts In a recent post I introduced The “January Leading Indicator“. At that time, there were some concerns expressed. The attached spreadsheet has been updated to address items … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Temperature | Tagged , , | 34 Comments

On Don Easterbrook’s Updated Projection

Don Easterbrook has updated his projection graph. Unfortunately, he did not update the graph that I complained about a few weeks ago, shown on the left in Figure 1. In that graph his projections started around 2010. He appears to … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Hiatus in Global Warming, PDO, Temperature | 149 Comments

The January Leading Indicator

By Walter Dnes – Edited by Just The Facts Investopedia defines “Leading Indicator” thusly… A measurable economic factor that changes before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. Leading indicators are used to predict changes in the … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Lower Troposphere Temperature, Temperature | Tagged , , | 165 Comments

BBC Meteorologist: Met Office Global Forecasts Too Warm In 13 Of Last 14 Years

Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, says: The global temperature in 2013 was 0.486C above the 1961-1990 average based on the HADCRUT measure, figures released by the Met Office show. So far this century, of 14 yearly headline predictions made by the Met … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Forecasting | 98 Comments

Senior meteorologist on extended USA cold blast to last past Groundhog day: ‘WOW WOW’

Top post for a day or two, new posts will appear below this one. Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John Coleman) almost never writes (email subject lines) like this. When … Continue reading

Posted in Cold wave, Forecasting, Weather | 211 Comments

2013 Was Not A Good Year For Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Climate Warming Change Disruption Weirding Ocean Acidification Extreme Weather, etc.

Image Credit: European Space Agency – CryoSat By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” For anyone keeping track, 2013 has not been a good year for those who propagate the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) Narrative, also know by a litany … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Forecasting, Hiatus in Global Warming, hurricanes, measurement, Sea ice, snowfall, Specific Humidity, Temperature, tornadoes | Tagged , , , , | 69 Comments

WUWT and WeatherBell help KUSI-TV with a weather forecasting request from ice-trapped ship in Antarctica Akademik Shokalskiy

Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Current News, Forecasting, The "Clitanic" aka Spirit of Mawson | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 308 Comments

On the Futility of Long-Range Numerical Climate Prediction

Note: two events at AGU13 this morning dovetail in with this essay. The first, a slide from Dr. Judith Lean which says: “There are no operational forecasts of global climate change”. The second was a tweet by Dr. Gavin Schmidt, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 265 Comments

One Model, One Vote

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The IPCC, that charming bunch of United Nations intergovernmental bureaucrats masquerading as a scientific organization, views the world of climate models as a democracy. It seems that as long as your model is big enough, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , | 88 Comments

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Forecasting, MetOffice, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 51 Comments

Commonsense Climate Science and Forecasting after AR5

Guest Essay by Dr. Norman Page 1.The Demise of the IPCC and the CAGW Delusion. a) Overview. In the AR5 Summary for Policymakers the IPCC glossed over  the developing cooling trend in global temperatures and so lost the last vestige of … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , , , , | 88 Comments

The Button Collector or When does trend predict future values?

Guest essay By Kip Hansen INTRO: Statistical trends never determine future values in a data set. Trends do not and cannot predict future values. If these two statements make you yawn and say “Why would anyone even have to say … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , | 222 Comments

There is only one published peer-reviewed paper that claims to provide scientific forecasts of long-range global mean temperatures

by Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon The human race has prospered by relying on forecasts that the seasons will follow their usual course, while knowing they will sometimes be better or worse. Are things different now? … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC | Tagged , , , | 118 Comments

Digital Signal Processing analysis of global temperature data time series suggests global cooling ahead

This DSP engineer is often tasked with extracting spurious signals from noisy data. He submits this interesting result of applying these techniques to the HadCRUT temperature anomaly data. Digital Signal Processing analysis suggests cooling ahead in the immediate future with … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , | 313 Comments

A ‘head scratcher’ – No Atlantic Hurricane by August in First Time in 11 Years

Where are all the hurricanes Al Gore, Bill McKibben, Joe Romm, and Brad Johnson say are supposed to happen due to global warming? Article includes most recent forecast from Klotzbach and Gray Bloomberg News: August is about to end without … Continue reading

Posted in extreme weather, Forecasting, hurricanes | Tagged , , , , , | 127 Comments

Schellnhuber thinks he can forecast El Niño a year in advance

From the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) where breakthroughs happen even before they have a proven track record. It appears he was able to predict one event last year in 2012 from the method run in 2011, but … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Hottest weather of the season likely coming

Model output from WeatherBell added by Anthony By Steve Pierce, AMS chapter president, Oregon Portland, Oregon (June 25th 2013) –  “The hottest weather of the season is likely on the way for the Pacific Northwest this coming weekend, and it … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Weather | Tagged , , , | 78 Comments

Two years to a 1740-type event?

Guest essay by David Archibald Wiggle-matching has been used by the best. Hubert Lamb, considered to be the most meticulous climatologist of all time, used wiggle-matching in this wind data graph he published in 1988: He had plotted up 600 … Continue reading

Posted in Curious things, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , | 136 Comments

12 Reasons Why The Met Office Is Alarmed

From the GWPF: Met Office To Hold Crisis Summit On Epic Forecast Failures The Met Office’s temperature forecasts issued in 12 out of the last 13 years have been too warm. None of the forecasts issued ended up too cold. … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, MetOffice | Tagged , , , , , , , | 154 Comments

FOIA obtained Met Office document shows them to be clueless about what affects our climate, and, in particular, what caused the unusual weather last year

Maybe all they need is a bigger computer Guest post by by Paul Homewood Following the wet summer in the UK last year, the  Met Office provided the Environment Agency with a briefing document, giving an overview of the weather. … Continue reading

Posted in FOI, Forecasting, MetOffice | Tagged , | 105 Comments

Uncertainty be damned, let’s make ice and sea level projections anyway

‘A better path’ toward projecting, planning for rising seas on a warmer Earth From Princeton University, by Morgan Kelly, Office of Communications More useful projections of sea level are possible despite substantial uncertainty about the future behavior of massive ice … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , | 88 Comments

Global Cooling – Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions

Guest post by Dr. Norman Page 1. Methods and Premises My approach to climate science is based on Baconian empirical principles as presented in a series of earlier posts on this site (  notably: 6/18/10 Thirty Year Climate Forecast 7/19/12 30 … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , | 71 Comments

“Global warming predictions prove accurate”– Guardian

Guest post by Paul Homewood The Mail on Sunday ran an article by David Rose a couple of weeks ago, pointing out just how woeful most climate models had been in predicting global temperatures in the last decade or … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Global warming | Tagged , , | 129 Comments

Newsbytes: The Met office blunders again – warm bias in forecasting

From The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser Met Office Apologises For Wrong Forecast – And Makes Another One  Warm Bias: The Met Office’s Disastrous Track Record Met Office apologises for warning of ‘dry spell’ before wettest April on record. –The … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, MetOffice | Tagged , | 66 Comments