Category Archives: Forecasting

FOIA obtained Met Office document shows them to be clueless about what affects our climate, and, in particular, what caused the unusual weather last year

Posted on April 9, 2013 by

Maybe all they need is a bigger computer Guest post by by Paul Homewood Following the wet summer in the UK last year, the  Met Office provided the Environment Agency with a briefing document, giving an overview of the weather. … Continue reading →

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Posted in FOI, Forecasting, MetOffice | Tagged , | 105 Comments

Uncertainty be damned, let’s make ice and sea level projections anyway

Posted on April 5, 2013 by

‘A better path’ toward projecting, planning for rising seas on a warmer Earth From Princeton University, by Morgan Kelly, Office of Communications More useful projections of sea level are possible despite substantial uncertainty about the future behavior of massive ice … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , | 88 Comments

Global Cooling – Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions

Posted on April 2, 2013 by

Guest post by Dr. Norman Page 1. Methods and Premises My approach to climate science is based on Baconian empirical principles as presented in a series of earlier posts on this site (http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com)  notably: 6/18/10 Thirty Year Climate Forecast 7/19/12 30 … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , | 71 Comments

“Global warming predictions prove accurate”– Guardian

Posted on March 31, 2013 by

Guest post by Paul Homewood http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/27/climate-change-model-global-warming The Mail on Sunday ran an article by David Rose a couple of weeks ago, pointing out just how woeful most climate models had been in predicting global temperatures in the last decade or … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Global warming | Tagged , , | 129 Comments

Newsbytes: The Met office blunders again – warm bias in forecasting

Posted on March 29, 2013 by

From The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser Met Office Apologises For Wrong Forecast – And Makes Another One  Warm Bias: The Met Office’s Disastrous Track Record Met Office apologises for warning of ‘dry spell’ before wettest April on record. –The … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, MetOffice | Tagged , | 66 Comments

How well did Hansen (1988) do?

Posted on March 20, 2013 by

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein. The graphic from RealClimate asks “How well did Hansen et al (1988) do?” They compare actual temperature measurements through 2012 (GISTEMP and HadCRUT4) with Hansen’s 1988 Scenarios “A”, “B”, and “C”. The answer (see my … Continue reading →

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Forecasting, Modeling, NASA GISS | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 212 Comments

I offer @ClimateOfGavin help understanding events -vs- trends

Posted on March 14, 2013 by

Yesterday, when Climategate 3 was released, the ever flippant Dr. Gavin Schmidt made this Tweet in response: Source: Google Trends, searching the word “climategate” from December 2009 to March 2013 http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Climategate&date=12%2F2009%2040m&cmpt=q It seems that Dr. Schmidt doesn’t understand the difference … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Gavin Schmidt, media, Satire | Tagged , , , , | 69 Comments

Quote of the Week – blaming Nature for poor model performance

Posted on March 7, 2013 by

There’s not much I can say about this quote from the Washington Post’s Joel Achenbach as it stands on its own quite well. The context of this quote is article on the bust of a forecast that was to be … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, media, Modeling, Quote of the Week | Tagged , , | 97 Comments

A new buzzword for pushing climate fear? ‘Explosive Cyclones’

Posted on February 11, 2013 by

After the past weekend’s silliness over a snowstorm that wasn’t all that much different than Nor’Easters of the past, I can imagine some CNN anchor using the phrase badly in the not too distant future, like suggesting sending in a … Continue reading →

Posted in extreme weather, Forecasting | Tagged , , , | 29 Comments

Forecasts of the Boston Blizzard

Posted on February 8, 2013 by

I thought I’d save a few forecast graphics now, to see how they hold up when the snow event is over. First, here’s the one from NWS Boston. I can’t say I much like their color scheme, as it gives … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Snow | Tagged , , , , , , , | 94 Comments

Climate seers as blind guides

Posted on February 6, 2013 by

Forecasters often use unscientific computer models Guest post by J. Scott Armstrong Illustration by Greg Groesch for The Washington Times The science of forecasting is complex. After 50 years spent studying the issue, I have found there is plenty of … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 45 Comments

Expert predicts ‘Monsoon Britain’

Posted on January 27, 2013 by

Guest post by Paul Homewood h/t Robuk A study, by Professor Stuart Lane of Durham University back in 2008, appears to have been remarkably percipient. Written just after the extremely wet summer of 2007, the study suggests that, far from … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate_change, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 83 Comments

Finally, a climate forecast model that works?

Posted on January 24, 2013 by

Note: Short term predictions are relatively easy, it remains to be seen if this holds up over the long term. I have my doubts. – Anthony Guest post by Frank Lemke The Global Warming Prediction Project is an impartial, transparent, … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 207 Comments

So far, Al Gore appears to be losing ‘the climate bet’

Posted on January 19, 2013 by

No cause for alarm at five-year mid-point of the Armstrong-Gore climate “bet” By J. Scott Armstrong In 2007, University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong’s attention was drawn to former VP Gore’s concerns about global warming. Having spent five decades … Continue reading →

Posted in Al Gore, Forecasting, Global warming | Tagged , , | 97 Comments

Great moments in failed predictions

Posted on January 19, 2013 by

UPDATE: New table added below. While searching for something else, I came across this entertaining collection of grand predictive failures related to resources and climate change, along with some of the biggest predictive failures of Paul Ehrlich. I thought it … Continue reading →

Posted in Alarmism, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 269 Comments

The other big story today: BBC forced to admit global warming ‘static’

Posted on January 8, 2013 by

Forecast for warming revised downward. The UK Met Office has revised one of its forecasts for how much the world may warm in the next few years. It says that the average temperature is likely to rise by 0.43 C … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC | Tagged , , | 301 Comments

Wrong Prediction, Wrong Science; Unless It’s Government Climate Science.

Posted on January 8, 2013 by

Guest post by Dr. Tim Ball In a comment on the WUWT article about the abject failure of UKMO weather forecasts, “Slingo Pretends She Knows Why It’s Been So Wet!”, Doug Huffman wrote, “Each forecast must be accompanied by the … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged | 141 Comments

New study shows: climate models still struggle with medium- term climate forecasts

Posted on December 7, 2012 by

How cold will a winter be in two years?  How well are the most important climate models able to predict the weather conditions for the coming year or even the next decade? The Potsdam scientists Dr. Dörthe Handorf and Prof. … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Flu forecasts using weather, not climate

Posted on November 27, 2012 by

Flu outbreaks predicted with weather forecast techniques BOULDER—Scientists at Columbia University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have adapted techniques used in modern weather prediction to generate local forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks. By predicting the timing and severity … Continue reading →

Posted in Economy-health, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 48 Comments

Cooling in the near future?

Posted on November 19, 2012 by

Global Cooling – Climate and Weather Forecasting. Guest post by Dr. Norman Page Introduction. Over the last 10 years or so as new data have accumulated the general trend and likely future course of  climate change has become reasonably clear. The earth … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, PDO | Tagged , , , | 177 Comments