Category Archives: forecasting

Crowdsourced Climate Complexity – Compiling the WUWT Potential Climatic Variables Reference Page

Posted on February 19, 2012 by

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments, which began on this thread on January, 15th 2011, and grew on January 22nd, 2011, February 10th, 2011, February 28th, 2011, June 30th, 2011 … Continue reading →

Posted in AMO, Announcements, Antarctic, Arctic, Carbon dioxide, carbon sequestration, Citizen science, climate data, clouds, cosmic rays, dust storms, earth, education, energy, ENSO, Environment, feedbacks, flooding, forecasting, geothermal energy, global warming, hurricanes, Land use land cover change, lightning, measurement, Methane, modeling, oceans, PDO, Science, sea ice, snowfall, Temperature, tornadoes, UHI, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 113 Comments

Quantifying the Solar Cycle 24 Temperature Decline

Posted on February 11, 2012 by

Guest post by David Archibald Three wise Norwegians – Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum – have just published a paper entitled “The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24”. It is available online … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, Science, solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 210 Comments

New WUWT Feature – Scafetta’s forecast -vs- the IPCC forecast

Posted on February 10, 2012 by

I have a new feature page on WUWT that highlights the work of Nicola Scafetta and his solar-lunar cycle forecast model as it compares to the IPCC forecasts and global temperature reality using HadCRUT surface temperature data. Working with Dr. … Continue reading →

Posted in Announcements, forecasting, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Model predicts Arctic sea ice extent

Posted on September 24, 2011 by

From the University of Washington , some great news if it holds predictive power over time in the face of a cyclic, noisy, non-linear system. Model provides successful seasonal forecast for the fate of Arctic sea ice Relatively accurate predictions … Continue reading →

Posted in Arctic, forecasting, modeling, sea ice | Tagged , , | 47 Comments

Well there goes the “climate is weather averaged over 30 years” standard

Posted on September 12, 2011 by

Forecasting climate? The average value of a meteorological element over 30 years is defined as a climatological normal. Source: NOAA/NWS It’s been done: From the University of California – Los Angeles Can scientists look at next year’s climate? Is it … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting | Tagged , | 84 Comments

Final 2011 sea ice outlook submitted to ARCUS

Posted on September 2, 2011 by

While I’ve sent this to Helen Wiggins at ARCUS (and have confirmation of receipt), I’m also posting it here for the record. PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK  FROM WUWT (acronym for WattsUpWithThat.com)

Posted in Arctic, forecasting, sea ice | 39 Comments

Final Arctic Sea Ice forecast poll

Posted on August 31, 2011 by

Poll now closed. Results below will be submitted to ARCUS on Sept 1st. Once again, I’m going to give WUWT readers an opportunity to make a forecast for submission, based on voting. See the poll at the end. I’m late … Continue reading →

Posted in Arctic, forecasting, sea ice | 178 Comments

ARCUS Sea Ice August forecast online

Posted on August 17, 2011 by

The August SEARCH forecast is now online, a little late this month. As before, I’ll make the poll for WUWT readers available at the end of the month for the final forecast. Personally I think the last WUWT reader poll … Continue reading →

Posted in Arctic, forecasting, sea ice | 44 Comments

Pielke Sr: Climate Includes Extreme Events

Posted on August 13, 2011 by

A Forecast Extreme New Zealand Weather Cold and Snow Event By Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. While it is common to state that weather is not climatology, the reality is that climatalogy is composed of a collection of weather events over some … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, snow | 82 Comments

August WUWT Arctic sea ice outlook submitted to ARCUS

Posted on August 1, 2011 by

This month, we have nearly a perfect bell curve distribution of votes, except for a minority vote that says less than 4.5 million sq kilometers. 750 votes were cast. PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK – WUWT (acronym for WattsUpWithThat.com)

Posted in Arctic, forecasting, sea ice | Tagged , , , | 50 Comments

Bastardi: Just Say No to El Nino, at least till 2012

Posted on July 22, 2011 by

Guest post by Joe Bastardi I  did not say boo at some of the “shoot the messenger  posts”  on my “Say No to El Nino”, including one person who wanted to throw out everything I said simply because of my … Continue reading →

Posted in ENSO, forecasting | Tagged | 173 Comments

Archibald: Solar Based Climate Forecast to 2050

Posted on July 13, 2011 by

Guest post by David Archibald When I started out in climate science in 2005, the climate people ignored the solar physics community. A casual perusal of the literature though indicated that the difference in climate outcome from Dikpati’s (NASA) estimate … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting | Tagged , , , | 195 Comments

The Met Office, eyes wide open

Posted on July 9, 2011 by

There’s an extraordinary admission about solar activity and cold winters in the UK from the Met Office in an article in FT Magazine. It is as if the blinders have been removed. The relevant passage is below from the much … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, solar | 189 Comments

NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season

Posted on May 19, 2011 by

Looks pretty much the same as Mann’s hurricane season predictions The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, hurricanes | Tagged , , , | 33 Comments

Joe Bastardi’s hurricane season

Posted on May 18, 2011 by

The Hurricane Season ( a rehash of what I have had so far) By Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell I see Dr Mann has a forecast out for 16 storms plus or minus 4, NOAA is out with theirs tomorrow. It is … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting | Tagged | 37 Comments

Mann’s hurricane season predictions

Posted on May 18, 2011 by

Hockey team science wonk Dr. Michael Mann has released his hurricane predictions, just in time to pre-empt NOAA’s planned release of their forecast ,Thursday, May 19, 2011 – 11:30 a.m. ET. ESSC Scientists make prediction for 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, hurricanes, satire | Tagged , , | 86 Comments

Pielke Senior on Climate Science Misconceptions #3

Posted on April 19, 2011 by

Guest post by Dr. Roger Pielke Senior Climate Science Myths And Misconceptions – Post #3 On Multi-Decadal Regional Climate Predictions Of Changes In Decadal And Longer Statistics Of Extreme Weather This past Friday, Ben Herman commented in Guest Post By Ben … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, modeling | Tagged | 32 Comments

Why are we so bad at long range weather forecasting?

Posted on April 9, 2011 by

By WUWT regular “justthefacts” In researching the use of tidal forces in long range weather forecasting, I came across an interesting August 30th, 2010 Associated Press/ MSNBC article based on interviews with Farmer’s Almanac Editors Sandi Duncan and Peter Geiger, … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, measurement, modeling, NOAA, Uncategorized, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 84 Comments

Snow in Los Angeles County, NWS Winter Advisory

Posted on April 8, 2011 by

From the “weather is not climate” department… Apparently, Nature is weighing in some support for action in Sacramento to end California’s economically punishing anti-carbon law. We saw earlier this winter some significant snowfall in Los Angeles, but Hollywierd continues to … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate News, climate_change, forecasting, global warming, snowfall, weather | 62 Comments

Bastardi: no return of El Niño til 2012

Posted on April 5, 2011 by

No No to el Nino ( till 2012) By Joe Bastardi (from his WeatherBell blog) I was going to write something about the dreaded back door front and how while it may be 90 at the masters this weekend it … Continue reading →

Posted in ENSO, forecasting | Tagged , , | 118 Comments

Joe Bastardi on his next big thing

Posted on March 12, 2011 by

Guest post by Joe Bastardi Well Anthony, here it is, just for the great  folks that go to your wonderful site ( I have made no secret of my love it, so I guess I am being redundant). On March … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting | Tagged , | 93 Comments

Bubbleheaded Barking Mad Met Office Modelers

Posted on March 4, 2011 by

From the organization that can’t forecast its way out of a paper bag, and then can’t bring itself to tell the public about long range forecasts anymore, it has come to this. OK, I’m not against citizen science, but when … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, Government idiocy, modeling | Tagged , , | 108 Comments

Joe Bastardi in Vanity Fair

Posted on February 25, 2011 by

This is a campy interview by Eric Spitznagel who runs “Awkward question time” at VF, is with our favorite forecaster, Joe Bastardi. Spitznagel was trying to make Joe look like some sort of WWF member (Not the fake wildlife crisis … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, fun_stuff | Tagged , , | 50 Comments

Low snow in SFO – to be or not to be?

Posted on February 23, 2011 by

Is Al Gore at his Fisherman’s Wharf Condo? Our own Charles The Moderator sent me a query today, along with a link to this SFO Chron article about the possibility of snow down to sea level. It’s possible, and has … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, snowfall, weather | Tagged , , | 38 Comments

Blizzard stories from the National Weather Service

Posted on February 15, 2011 by

Mike Smith tips us to this NOAA Communications Office Summary of stories about the February blizzard. It makes for interesting reading. As Record Snow Falls, NWS Employees Hunker Down An Epic Storm: Tulsa, Okla. Chuck Hodges and Bruce Sherbon, forecasters … Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting | Tagged , | 69 Comments