Changepoint analysis as applied to the surface temperature record

Guest essay by Jeff Patterson In a recent post on RealClimate, the author examines the statistical significance of the “The Pause” using a technique recently in vogue called changepoint analysis (CPA). The basic idea is to subdivide a time series into intervals and determine if a statistically significant change in the regression slope can be…

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Is NOAA Wrong?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach On another post here on Watts Up With That, a commenter pointed out that NOAA says that September 2014 was the warmest September ever on record. The commenter asked, “Is NOAA  wrong?” Sadly, as near as I can tell the answer is “Quite possibly”. Here is the NOAA graphic in question, showing their…


It’s official: no global warming for 18 years 1 month

Global Temperature Update By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley The RSS monthly satellite global temperature anomaly for September 2014 is in, and the Great Pause is now two months longer than it was last month. Would this year’s el Niño bite soon enough to stop the psychologically-significant 18-year threshold from being crossed? The official answer is…