average mixed layer depth

Can We Tell If The Oceans Are Warming?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, I was going to write about hourly albedo changes, honest I was, but as is often the case I got sidetractored. My great thanks to Joanne Nova for highlighting a mostly unknown paper on the error estimate for the Argo dataset entitled On the accuracy of North Atlantic temperature and…

climateprediction_bad_data

An Inherently Stable System

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach At the end of my last post , I said that the climate seems to be an inherently stable system. The graphic below shows ~2,000 climate simulations run by climateprediction.net.  Unlike the other modelers, whose failures end up on the cutting room floor, they’ve shown all of the runs ……

CERES total albedo

Albedic Meanderings

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been considering the nature of the relationship between the albedo and temperature. I have hypothesized elsewhere that variations in tropical cloud albedo are one of the main mechanisms that maintain the global surface temperature within a fairly narrow range (e.g. within ± 0.3°C during the entire 20th Century). To…

global energy subsidies

Potholes In Their Arguments

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach For folks with sensitive stomachs, I’d advise that you do not read the “Working Paper” named How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies? It was produced by the IMF [the “I” stands for “International” and most folks know what a “MF” is] as part of the media blitz in preparation for the upcoming…

global_warming_questions

Out At The Boundaries

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve heard many times that whereas weather prediction is an “initial-value” problem, climate prediction is a “boundary problem”. I’ve often wondered about this, questions like “what is the boundary?”. I woke up today thinking that I didn’t have an adequately clear understanding of the difference between the two types of problems.…

lag between toa radiation and temperature

Climate Insensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been wanting to [take] another look at the relationship between net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes on the one hand and changes in temperature on the other. As a necessary prelude, I finally have gotten round to an oft-postponed task, that of looking at the thermal lag in different areas…

thermosyphon

Things In General

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach My business card gives my job title as “Generalist”. Let me give you an example of why this is an advantage in climate science. I worked for a while in the field of low-tech renewable energy. One of the things I did was to work with inexpensive solar water heating. Using…