Author Archives: Willis Eschenbach

Chylek Imitates Ouroboros

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Bob Tisdale has a detailed post on the new 2014 paper entitled “The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate” by Chylek et al. Nic Lewis also did a good … Continue reading

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Posted in Bad science | Tagged , , , | 67 Comments

Three Clocks

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to wandering through the three main datasets that make up the overall CERES data, and I noticed an odd thing. The three main datasets are the all-sky downwelling solar, upwelling reflected solar, and … Continue reading

Posted in Radiation, Radiative Imbalance | Tagged , , , | 99 Comments

Argo, Temperature, and OHC

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been thinking about the Argo floats and the data they’ve collected. There are about 4,000 Argo floats in the ocean. Most of the time they are asleep, a thousand metres below the surface. Every … Continue reading

Posted in ARGO data | Tagged , , | 232 Comments

The Power Stroke

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the well-known correlation of El Ninos and global temperature. I knew that the Pacific temperatures lead the global temperatures, and the tropics lead the Pacific, but I’d never looked at … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , | 145 Comments

Volcanoes Erupt Again

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I see that Susan Solomon and her climate police have rounded up the usual suspects, which in this case are volcanic eruptions, in their desperation to explain the so-called “pause” in global warming that’s stretching … Continue reading

Posted in Volcanoes, Vulcanism | Tagged , , , , | 156 Comments

Usoskin Et Al. Discover A New Class of Sunspots

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a new post up by Usoskin et al. entitled “Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity”. To their credit, they’ve archived their data, it’s available here. Figure 1 shows their reconstructed decadal averages of … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science | Tagged , , , , | 140 Comments

Andrew Revkin Loses The Plot, Episode XXXVIII

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I went over to Andy Revkin’s site to be entertained by his latest fulminations against “denialists”. Revkin, as you may remember from the Climategate emails, was the main go-to media lapdog for the various unindicted … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science | Tagged , | 239 Comments

How Much Sunlight Actually Enters The System?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a new study in PNAS, entitled “Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice” by Pistone et al. Let me start by registering a huge protest against the title. The sea … Continue reading

Posted in Albedo, Arctic, Sea ice | Tagged , , | 144 Comments

The Levelized Cost of Electric Generation

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In early 2013, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) released their new figures for the “levelized cost” of new power plants. I just came across them, so I thought I’d pass them on. These are … Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , | 244 Comments

Canute Ponders The Tides

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Short Post.  You can skip this if you understand the tidal force. Some folks seem confused about the nature of tidal forces. Today I saw this gem: “The tide raising force acts in both directions … Continue reading

Posted in Oceans | Tagged , | 496 Comments

Quote of the Week

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In discussing President Obama’s latest boondoggle, the one billion (with a “b) dollar Climate Resilience Plan, The US Under-Assistant Minister of Scientific Silly Walks, John Holdren, wandered way off of the party line. The party line in … Continue reading

Posted in Quote of the Week | Tagged | 187 Comments

Dust In My Eyes

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I was thinking about “dust devils”, the little whirlwinds of dust that you see on a hot day, and they reminded me that we get dulled by familiarity with the wonders of our planet. Suppose, … Continue reading

Posted in Tropics | Tagged , | 97 Comments

Time and the Tides Wait for Godot

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been listening to lots of stuff lately about tidal cycles. These exist, to be sure. However, they are fairly complex, and they only repeat (and even then only approximately) every 54 years 34 days. … Continue reading

Posted in Oceans | Tagged , , | 528 Comments

Lakes For Sale, Partially Thawed, N=20

Guest Post By Willis Eschenbach Anthony pointed out the selling of overhyped claims of the “dramatic thinning” of Arctic ice here. The title of the underlying scientific study is much more prosaic, Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science, snowfall | Tagged , , , | 64 Comments

Arctic Layer Cake

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a recent paper paywalled here, called Arctic winter warming amplified by the thermal inversion and consequent low infrared cooling to space. Fortunately, the Supplementary Online Information is available here, and it contains much valuable information. … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Arctic, Bad science | Tagged , , | 144 Comments

Counting Your Penguin Chicks Before They Hatch

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, the BBC, which as I understand it is an acronym for “Blindly Broadcasting Cra- ziness”, gives us its now-standard tabloid style headline, that Climate change is ‘killing penguin chicks’ say researchers Of course they’ve included … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science | Tagged , | 193 Comments

Should We Be Worried?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I chanced to plot up the lower tropospheric temperatures by broad latitude zones today. This is based on the data from the satellite microwave sounding unit (MSU), as analyzed by the good folks at the … Continue reading

Posted in Temperature | Tagged , , | 272 Comments

Sunny Spots Along the Parana River

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In a comment on a recent post, I was pointed to a study making the following surprising claim: Here, we analyze the stream flow of one of the largest rivers in the world, the Parana … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science | Tagged , , , , | 163 Comments

How Scientists Study Cycles

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach We have the ill-fated stillborn Copernicus Special Edition as an example of how those authors went about analyzing the possible effects of astronomical cycles. Let me put up a contrasting example, which is The 1,800-year oceanic … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science | Tagged , , , , | 182 Comments

Riding A Mathemagical Solarcycle

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Among the papers in the Copernicus Special Issue of Pattern Recognition in Physics we find a paper from R. J. Salvador in which he says he has developed A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science | Tagged , , | 132 Comments

Sunspots and Sea Level

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I came across a curious graph and claim today in a peer-reviewed scientific paper. Here’s the graph relating sunspots and the change in sea level: And here is the claim about the graph: Sea level … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science, Consensus | Tagged , , , | 381 Comments

CO2 and CERES

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the bureaucratic agency which appropriated the role of arbiter of things climatic, has advanced a theory for the lack of warming since the turn of the century, viz: The … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 199 Comments

More Fun with Oil and Gas

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, having had such a good time with M. King Hubbert meeting the EIA, I thought I’d toss out another puzzle. This one is inspired by a statement from the King himself that someone quoted … Continue reading

Posted in Energy, natural gas, petroleum | Tagged , , | 149 Comments

M. King Meets the EIA

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Dramatis Personae: The “EIA” is the US Energy Information Agency, the US agency in charge of data about energy production, consumption, and use. It has just released its January 2014 Short Term Energy Report, with current … Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , | 171 Comments

Upwelling Solar, Upwelling Longwave

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The CERES dataset contains three main parts—downwelling solar radiation, upwelling solar radiation, and upwelling longwave radiation. With the exception of leap-year variations, the solar dataset does not change from year to year over a few … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Radiative Imbalance, Solar | Tagged , , | 348 Comments

On The Stability and Symmetry Of The Climate System

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The CERES data has its problems, because the three datasets (incoming solar, outgoing longwave, and reflected shortwave) don’t add up to anything near zero. So the keepers of the keys adjusted them to an artificial … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Radiative Imbalance, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 306 Comments

New CERES Data and Ocean Heat Content

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach We have gotten three more years of data for the CERES dataset, which is good, more data is always welcome. However, one of the sad things about the CERES dataset is that we can’t use … Continue reading

Posted in Ocean Heat Content | Tagged , , | 101 Comments

Ocean Heat Content Variations—Satellites vs Oceanographers

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to looking at the numbers for how much energy is exported from the tropics each month by this great heat engine we call the climate. As I discussed in The Magnificent Climate Heat … Continue reading

Posted in Ocean Heat Content | Tagged , , | 70 Comments

Cancelling the Tropical Cancellation

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a much-cited paper (129 citations) from 1994 called “On the Observed Near Cancellation between Longwave and Shortwave Cloud Forcing in Tropical Regions” by J. T. Kiehl (hereinafter Kiehl1994), available here. The paper makes the following claim … Continue reading

Posted in Radiation, Radiative Imbalance | Tagged , , | 97 Comments

The Thermostatic Throttle

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I have theorized that the reflective nature of the tropical clouds, in particular those of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) just above the equator, functions as the “throttle” on the global climate engine. We’re all … Continue reading

Posted in Albedo | Tagged , , | 167 Comments

The Magnificent Climate Heat Engine

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been reflecting over the last few days about how the climate system of the earth functions as a giant natural heat engine. A “heat engine”, whether natural or man-made, is a mechanism that converts … Continue reading

Posted in Albedo, Modeling, Radiative Imbalance | Tagged , , , | 496 Comments

The Fatal Lure of Assumed Linearity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [note new Update at the end, and new Figs. 4-6] In climate science, linearity is the order of the day. The global climate models are all based around the idea that in the long run, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 111 Comments

Mechanical Models

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [NOTE the update at the end of the post.] I’ve continued my peregrinations following the spoor of the global climate model data cited in my last post. This was data from 19 global climate models. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 90 Comments

CO2 in the air, CO2 in the seawater

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See updated graph] Inspired by some comments on another thread, I decided to see what I could find in the way of actual measurements of the amount of CO2 in the surface layer of the … Continue reading

Posted in Ocean acidification, Oceans | Tagged , , | 197 Comments

One Model, One Vote

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The IPCC, that charming bunch of United Nations intergovernmental bureaucrats masquerading as a scientific organization, views the world of climate models as a democracy. It seems that as long as your model is big enough, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , | 88 Comments