Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President
Specific Problems in IPCC Science: New Zealand is one country whose politicians have accepted the questionable science of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As such, the government is implementing measures that are destructive to the livestock industry, primarily cattle and sheep, based on hollow calculations by the IPCC – that is, calculations that have little meaning, no matter how precise. The calculations are on the greenhouse warming potential (GWP) of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), which are calculated to comprise 50% of New Zealand’s emissions of greenhouse gases. These actions illustrate how acceptance of the shoddy science of the IPCC by government entities can become economically destructive to westernized nations.
Last week’s TWTW discussed the exceptional talk by Richard Lindzen to the Global Warming Policy Foundation on the “magical” thinking of the ideologically motivated IPCC and its parent, the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), which organized the Paris Agreement. Lindzen asserted that “the two most important greenhouse substances by far are water vapor and clouds.” The global climate models relied on by the IPCC and its followers such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) do not properly capture the influence water vapor and clouds.
Writing in “The Journal,” The Official Publication of The New Zealand Institute of Primary Industry Management, Jock Allison and Thomas Sheahen address the folly of New Zealand’s proposed greenhouse gas policies by specifically addressing the defects in IPCC models. Jock Allison and a scientist and New Zealand sheep breeder and Tom Sheahen is the Chairman of SEPP, with an extensive background in physics and energy.
A major defect in the IPCC models is the treatment of water vapor as a feedback mechanism from warming caused by carbon dioxide (CO2). Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas by far, it and clouds account for 80 to 90% or more of the greenhouse gas effect. Water vapor is natural and changing, both regionally and seasonally. To treat it as a feedback and not as a natural cause of greenhouse gas warming is a major defect rendering all model predictions / projections useless. Among other issues, naturally occurring water vapor diminishes the greenhouse warming potential of other gases, particularly methane and nitrous oxide.
As Allison and Sheahen state:
“The 2013 IPCC Report, AR5 (Physical Science Basis, Chapter 8, p. 666) states: ‘Water vapour is the primary GHG in the earth’s atmosphere. The contribution of water vapour to the natural greenhouse effect relative to that of CO2 depends on the accounting method, but can be considered to be approximately two to three times greater.’ Further, the IPCC’s 1992 report indicates that water vapour accounts for 55% of the total GHG effect, and that clouds account for a further 17% (Figure 4).
“Many scientific assessments consider that the total effect of water vapour is more like 90%, much more than the 72% suggested by the IPCC. Even at a value of 72% for water vapour, the proportion of the GHG effect on the world temperature, which international governments are ambitiously seeking to diminish through the reduction of the GHGs going into the atmosphere, is far less than conveyed in communications to the general public through official channels or the media.” (p.6) [Spelling as in the original]
One could argue it is too difficult to incorporate water vapor in the models, but the UNFCCC and its supporters are demanding actions that are extremely punitive to western prosperity claiming certainty in the predictions / projections from the models – a certainty that does not exist. With greenhouse gases the issue is a slowing of the cooling of the earth:
“The cooling process involves multiple steps: heat from the surface is radiated back, absorbed by the various GHGs (mainly water vapour), and transported upward by the convection of moist air to the upper troposphere, where clouds form. Throughout this journey from the surface molecular collisions, emission and re-absorption of radiation continues. The ‘greenhouse effect’ is attributed to gases that absorb and emit solar electromagnetic energy in a particular part of the electro- magnetic spectrum – ultraviolet (UV), visible, infrared light. The final cooling step (emission to space) takes place via infrared radiation leaving the upper troposphere and stratosphere.
“The downgoing radiation from the sun is in the UV and visible light part of the spectrum (0.1 to 1.2 microns wavelength), and here there is some interception of energy by clouds and a little by water vapour. There is virtually no effect of the GHGs, CO2, CH4, and N2O at the wavelength of the incoming radiation from the sun.
“All of the upgoing thermal radiation is in the 3 to 70-micron range of the spectrum, where the GHGs have some effect in absorbing the up-radiated heat from the earth’s surface.”
The authors further assert:
“The potential effectiveness of GHGs in influencing temperature depends essentially on five factors:
1. The capability of individual molecules to absorb or radiate heat.
2. Their relative concentration in the atmosphere.
3. Whether each can actually absorb effectively (as heat is radiated to and from the earth) depends on both the location of their spectral bands and the energy distribution of the earth’s outgoing radiation.
4. Competition for absorption by and between other gases.
5. Phase change of water, evaporation, condensation and precipitation.”
By ignoring water vapor as the primary greenhouse gas, the IPCC ignores the practical fact that water vapor severely limits the ability of methane and nitrous oxide to absorb outgoing (upgoing) radiation, severely limiting their greenhouse gas potential. Essentially, calculations of the greenhouse gas effect on the earth’s atmosphere by methane or nitrous oxide are hollow – meaningless. New Zealand’s agricultural policies about greenhouse gases are essentially meaningless, so are claims that methane leaks from other sources are causing dangerous global warming.
In Figure 2 (p. 5), the authors show the logarithmic relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures (assuming a given climate sensitivity to CO2). This is based on the MODTRAN atmospheric model at the University of Chicago. Even at the pre-industrial level, the influence of CO2 was becoming small and almost flat. The IPCC dare not show such a relationship because the fear of carbon dioxide-caused global warming will vanish.
In arguing against New Zealand policies on methane and nitrous oxide, the authors assert:
“There are four serious discrepancies regarding our present political assessment of the effectiveness of CH4 and N2O as GHGs:
1. The similar molecular structure to CO2 and H2O, N2O and CH4 result in their individual capability to absorb radiating heat from the earth of a similar order of magnitude.
2. There are very tiny amounts of CH4 and N2O in the atmosphere.
3. The earth emits very little energy in the energy band where both CH4 and N2O can absorb radiation.
4. The absorption bands of CH4 and N2O are narrow and small, thus these molecules are unable to materially contribute to the dominant role of water vapour in the heat transfer process.”
“We assert therefore that the GWP values of both CH4 and N2O are vastly overstated by the IPCC, and therefore by member governments of the UNFCCC. Consequently, it is suggested that these gases be removed from New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory, and that the supporting case for such treatment be prepared for negotiation with our international partners.
“Further, there is a much bigger prize at stake. CO2 has such a small part to play in global warming/climate change, with no more than 20% of the total greenhouse (heating of the earth) effect and probably a lot less than that, and the effects of CH4 and N2O are trivial. This means that there is an urgent need to stop all this expensive concentration on ‘climate change’ and be rid of the naivety of assuming that human beings can control and/or stabilise the climate.”
One can summarize the paper by stating that we cannot create reliable models for effects of greenhouse gases without a reliable model on the effects of water vapor – which does not exist in the IPCC’s review. The fear of greenhouse gas-caused dire warming is based on hollow (meaningless) models. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
*******************
Quote of the Week “Facts, good or bad, are stubborn things.” – John Adams [H/t Donn Dears]
*******************
A Crack Developing? Last week, Benny Peiser of the Global Warming Policy Forum gave a talk at the offices of the Competitive Enterprise Institute. One comment was of particular note. In the past, given sufficient tax incentives and other financial breaks, large German industries have gone along with environmental policies of the EU and Germany, including ones on fossil fuels.
Now, Herbert Diess, the Chairman the Board of Management of Volkswagen Group, one of the world’s leading manufacturers of automobiles and commercial vehicles and the largest carmaker in Europe, has spoken out against stricter CO2 emission limits imposed by the EU. Diess claims these policies are pushing Europe’s car industry to the “brink of collapse” and the campaign against petroleum powered cars is threating the existence of the German car industry. Also, he criticized the proposed switch to electric cars as detrimental to the environment because Germany’s electricity systems are still dominated by coal-fired power generation.
One should not read too much into this unusual event, but one must note that some in industry are publicly objecting a switch to extreme green. See link under Non-Green Jobs.
*******************
HadCRUT Data: Last week’s TWTW discussed an independent audit of widely used surface temperature data produced by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change and the Climatic Research Unit of East Anglia University. As expected the data was defended by the MET office. Writing in The Australian, Graham Lloyd stated:
“The Met Office said many of the problems identified are well known to anyone who has worked with climate data and are dealt with extensively in the literature including in the papers describing the construction of the data sets.”
This is not satisfactory. How many of those proposing policies based on IPCC reports, which use this surface data, understand the deficiencies in the data and how poor the coverage of the data is? The poor quality of the data, particularly in the early part of the record, is largely ignored in the reports of the IPCC and its followers. If these were fiduciary reports produced by corporations in the US, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) would be investigating and proposing serious penalties – as Elon Musk discovered concerning his tweets. Governments that believe the IPCC are making enormous gambles on the prosperity of the public based on deficient data. See links under Measurement Issues — Surface
*******************
Nobel Award to William Nordhaus: The 2018 Nobel in economics was awarded to William Nordhaus and Paul Romer. Nordhaus received his award for his work in climate change. He is a promoter of a carbon tax and developed an economic model to assess the costs of climate change, including crop failures and flooding, called the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, or DICE. Nordhaus claims that we a gambling with the future of the planet.
The first US recipient of this Nobel was Paul Samuelson, who made his fame and Nobel with “Foundations of Economic Analysis” (1947). bringing the heavy use of mathematics into economics. In 1948, the first edition of “Economics” by Samuelson was published, advocating Keynesian economics and the heavy use of mathematics. In 1985, Samuelson was joined by William Nordhaus.
From the 1960s to the mid-1980s, Samuelson argued that the Soviet economy was comparable to the US economy because its military was comparable. Contrary to Samuelson’s claims, when pressed by the Reagan military build-up and anti-ballistic missile technology, the Soviet economy collapsed. To paraphrase Richard Feynman: It doesn’t matter how beautiful your model is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If your assumptions are wrong, your conclusions are wrong. This applies to the DICE model. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
*******************
Number of the Week: 20 Years. Last week, Richard Lindzen stated that there has been no significant warming of the globe for 20 years. The paper by Allison and Sheahen asserts the same. An El Niño may be forming in the central Pacific, not eastern Pacific, and the “Son of Blob” is appearing in the Gulf of Alaska. If they develop, they may impact end-of-year temperatures. TWTW will wait until the end of the year before drawing a conclusion on 20-year temperature trends. See links under Changing Weather.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Draft Summary for Policymakers, NIPCC, Oct 3, 2018
The IPCC is still wrong on climate change. Scientists prove it.
By John Dale Dunn and Joseph Bast, American Thinker, Oct 8, 2018
Toward a Fossil-fueled, Prosperous Future (new NIPCC report released)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 8, 2018
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Greenhouse Gases – A More Realistic View
By Jock Allison and Thomas Sheahen, The Journal, The Official Publication of The New Zealand Institute of Primary Industry Management Incorporated, September 2018, pp 3 – 10.
Link to article on misleading calculations: How to Deceive with Statistics: Distortions Due to Diminutive Denominators
By Thomas Sheahen, American Thinker, Jan 11, 2018
Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C
By Nic Lewis, Climate Etc. Oct 18, 2018
Why U.N. climate report cannot be trusted
By Tim Ball and Tom Harris, The Washington Times
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/oct/15/why-un-climate-report-cannot-be-trusted/
“Population Bombed”: Interview with Pierre Desrochers (new book out today)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Oct 16, 2018
https://www.masterresource.org/desrochers-pierre/population-bombed-interview/
“Yesterday, Pierre Desrochers and Joanna Szurmak, summarized their new book, ‘Population Bombed! Exploding the Link Between Overpopulation and Climate Change.’ Today, Master Resource is pleased to interview Professor Desrochers about his latest book.”
Apollo astronaut & scientist rejects IPCC climate report
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 18, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/18/apollo-astronaut-scientist-rejects-ipcc-climate-report/
Global Warming Pause Extends…Becoming Clear IPCC Grossly Overstated Projected Warming
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 17, 2018
Have we reached peak alarmism on climate change?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 17, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/17/have-we-reached-peak-alarmism-on-climate-change/
From: The U.N.’s Doomsday Climate Clock
Maybe predicting the apocalypse isn’t the best political strategy
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 15, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/the-u-n-s-doomsday-climate-clock-1539645402
Defending the Orthodoxy
Last Man to Walk on the Moon Mistaken About Climate Change on Earth
By Mindy Weisberger, Live Science, Oct 15, 2018
https://www.livescience.com/63836-harrison-schmitt-climate-change.html
“Schmitt was correct about one thing: Earth has undergone dramatic climate shifts in its geologic past. However, those climate change events unfolded over millions of years; the current effects of global warming — spurred by excessive quantities of carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere by human activity — are spooling out over decades.” [Boldface added.]
[SEPP Comment: The earth coming out of the last Ice Age took a few millennia, not millions of years.]
The Economics of the Climate Crisis
By José Antonio Ocampo, Project Syndicate, Oct 19, 2018
Mr. Ocampo is “a board member of Banco de la República, Colombia’s central bank, professor at Columbia University, and Chair of the UN Economic and Social Council’s Committee for Development Policy.”
Diesel and petrol ban should come much faster, say MPs
By Staff Writers, BBC, Oct 19, 2018 [H/t Paul Homewood]
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899580
How Washington unleashed fossil-fuel exports and sold out on climate
The Trump administration has its predecessor to thank when it comes to “energy dominance.”
By Jie Jenny Zou, Center for Public Integrity, The Texas Tribune, Oct 16, 2018
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Three out of four living astronauts who walked on moon are skeptics (men the ABC won’t interview)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 18, 2018
Blinded by ‘Science’
By Peter Smith, Quadrant, Oct 19, 2018
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2018/10/blinded-science/
[SEPP Comment: Use of the word “science” does not mean correct application of the process.]
Behind the IPCC Curtain: the Costs of Climate Mitigation Policy
By Mark Krebs. Master Resource, Oct 18, 2018
https://www.masterresource.org/intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc/ipcc-alarmism-1-5c/
“Regardless, financing the IPCC’s conclusions via carbon taxes would bankrupt even the wealthiest countries; even at the low end of the IPCC estimates.”
Our Latest Global Warming Scare
By Richard Epstein, Hoover Institution, Oct 16, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]
https://www.hoover.org/research/our-latest-global-warming-scare
“The far better path, therefore, is to concentrate on improving yields and reducing externalities from our best energy sources, instead of overlooking the serious externalities that wind and solar themselves can create. The simple path of steady and predictable technological improvement promises far greater returns than the measures suggested by the IPCC report.”
Booker On The UN’s Latest Mega Panic
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2018
The IPCC’s Cynical Ploy
The latest IPCC report was a setup – a cynical ploy to produce alarmist media headlines that succeeded beautifully.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Oct 15, 2018
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2018/10/15/the-ipccs-cynical-ploy/
Missed A Few, IPCC? 368 New 2018 Papers Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarmism
By Kenneth Richards, No Tricks Zone, Oct 15, 2018
German ‘Die Welt’: “1.5°C Target Appears Utopian”, No Longer Attainable…”Clock Ran Out Already Weeks Ago”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 13, 2018
Good news: we now have until 2030 to save the earth
By Ross Clark, Spectator, UK, Oct 8, 2018, H/t GWPF]
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/good-news-we-now-have-until-2030-to-save-the-earth/
Rex Murphy: The UN climate-change panel that cried wolf too often
You can’t set multiple deadlines for Doomsday. It’s a kind of one-off by nature. Do it too often and people cease to take notice or even care
|By Rex Murphy, National Post, Canada, Oct 12, 2018
“The trouble with apocalypses is that they can’t be plural. You only get one by definition.”
Change in US Administrations
Kudlow pushes back on UN warning: Climate change modeling has not been successful
By Megan Keller, The Hill, Oct 14, 2018
“Top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Sunday that he is skeptical of a United Nations climate change report that predicted catastrophic consequences if current trends are not reversed, citing past errors in U.N. modeling.”
[SEPP Comment: Past errors? Gross errors are more appropriate!]
Trump Is Right to Question Climate Change Causes
By Tom Harris and Jay Lehr, Oct 18, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/18/trump-is-right-to-question-climate-change-causes/
Delingpole: ‘Who Drew It?’ Trump Queries IPCC’s $38.4 Trillion Ransom Note
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Oct 12, 2018 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Donald Trump, 60 Minutes, and Global Warming
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Oct 16, 2018
https://www.cato.org/blog/donald-trump-60-minutes-global-warming
Opinion: Trump Is Right to Question Climate Change Causes
By Geoff Brown, Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Oct 19, 2018
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2018/10/opinion-trump-is-right-to-question.html
NASA chief: ‘No reason to dismiss’ recent UN climate report
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 19, 2018
[SEPP Comment: No reason to accept its conclusions either.]
Trump Slightly Revises His Views on Climate Change Again.
By Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Oct 16, 2018
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Bank of England Backs Down on Mandatory Climate Change Disclosure
Guest essays by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 16, 2018
Seeking a Common Ground
New Peer-Reviewed Paper
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog, Oct 18, 2018
https://rogerpielkejr.com/2018/10/18/new-peer-reviewed-paper/
“Tracking Progress on the Economic Costs of Disasters Under the Indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals, Environmental Hazards.”
Testimony to the [Canadian] Senate Concerning Social License and the Duty to Consult [Bill C-69]
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, Oct 18, 2018, Link to Testimony
https://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mckitrick_senate_oct_18.pdf
[SEPP Comment: The bill needs flexibility on future compliance, a clear set of rules, and what constitutes knowledge.]
Scientific study finds polar bears excel at diving, contradicting previous expert opinion
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 15, 2018
Link to paper: Aquatic behaviour of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in an increasingly ice-free Arctic
By Karen Lone, et al. Nature, Scientific Reports, June 26, 2018
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-27947-4
California utility cuts power as wildfire precaution
By Timothy Came, The Hill, Oct 15, 2018
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Claim: Air Pollution, Not Greenhouse Gases, Is the Main Cause of Global Warming
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 19, 2018
“UPDATE: I’ve decided this fellow is not credible, this is why. From the paper:
“The IPCC-condoned climate computer models not only suffer from the uncertainties associated with those complexities, but the integrity of their models and assessments is compromised [10] by the universal, systematic failure to take into account the aerosolized pollution particulates that have been intentionally and covertly sprayed into the atmosphere for decades in the region where clouds form [11,12]. The covert aerial spraying is obvious to those who are aware of their natural surroundings, and millions of people have expressed concern [13,14].”
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Thirty Years of Increasing Woody Plant Cover in Sub-Saharan Africa
Venter, Z.S., Cramer, M.D. and Hawkins, H.-J. 2018. Drivers of woody plant encroachment over Africa. Nature Communications 9: 2272, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04616-8. Oct 19, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/oct/a12.php
The Benefits of CO2 on a Potential Feed Crop
Brouwer, P., Schluepmann, H., Nierop, K.G.J., Elderson, J., Bijl, P.K., van der Meer, I., de Visser, W., Reichart, G.-J., Smeekens, S. and van der Werf, A. 2018. Growing Azolla to produce sustainable protein feed: the effect of differing species and CO2 concentrations on biomass productivity and chemical composition. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture 98: 4759-4768. Oct 18, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/oct/a11.php
A Preferential Translocation of Carbon into Cucumber Fruit at Elevated CO2 Levels
Dong, J., Xu, Q., Gruda, N. Chu, W., Li, X. and Duan, Z. 2018. Elevated and super-elevated CO2 differ in their interactive effects with nitrogen availability on fruit yield and quality of cucumber. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture 98: 4509-4516. Oct 17, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/oct/a10.php
A Temporal Decline in Spanish Heat-related Mortality
Achebak, H., Devolder, D. and Ballester, J. 2018. Heat-related mortality trends under recent climate warming in Spain: A 36-year observational study. PLoS Medicine 15: e1002617. Oct 15, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/oct/a9.php
Models v. Observations
Report – Tailpipe Emissions Are SAFE: Trump Fuel Economy Reform Will Not Cause Air Pollution Deaths
By Staff Writers, CEI, Oct 17, 2018
Link to report: Will the Trump Fuel Economy Reform Proposal Create Deadly Air Pollution?
By Steve Milloy, On Point, CEI, Oct 17, 2018
“The PM 2.5 epidemiology is conflicted and controversial to say the least. But even if it were not, the EPA has admitted to a federal court that because of its statistical nature, the PM 2.5 epidemiology is an insufficient basis for concluding that PM 2.5 causes death.”
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
Good news: U.S. air pollution deaths nearly halved between 1990 and 2010
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 19, 2018
Link to paper: Long-term trends in the ambient PM2.5- and O3-related mortality burdens in the United States under emission reductions from 1990 to 2010
By Yuqiang Zhang, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Oct 19, 2018
https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/15003/2018/
Study: Another failure of climate models – they can’t handle barometric pressure change
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 16, 2018
Link to paper: Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models
By Edward Hanna, Xavier Fettweis, and Richard J. Hall, The Cryosphere, Oct 16, 2018
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3287/2018/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf
Britain’s MET Office Welcomes Audit By Australian Researcher About HADCRUT Errors
By Graham Lloyd, The Australian, Via GWPF, Oct 15, 2018
Hadley excuse implies their quality control might filter out the freak outliers? Not so.
By Jo Nova and John McLean, Her Blog, Oct 19, 2018
Met Office responds to HadCRUT global temperature audit by McLean
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 15, 2018
September 2018 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Oct 18, 2018
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Greenhouse gas emissions dropped nearly 3 percent in Trump’s first year
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Oct 17, 2018
Changing Weather
Florida Major Hurricane Strikes: Still No Trend
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 11, 2018
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/10/florida-major-hurricane-strikes-still-no-trend/
Storm Leslie Hits Portugal
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 15, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/10/15/storm-leslie-hits-portugal/
[SEPP Comment: Unusual, but not unprecedented.]
Did global warming ‘supercharge’ Hurricane Michael?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 15, 2018
The Son of Blob is Back!
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Oct 16, 2018
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-son-of-blob-is-back.html
Changing Seas
Inconvenient study: Higher temperatures could help protect coral reefs
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 16, 2018
Link to paper: Collective aggressiveness of an ecosystem engineer is associated with coral recovery
By Jonathan N Pruitt, et al. Behavioral Ecology, Oct 16, 2018
https://academic.oup.com/beheco/advance-article/doi/10.1093/beheco/ary092/5096922
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
New Science: Arctic AND Antarctic Sea Ice More Extensive Today Than Nearly All Of The Last 10,000 Years
By Kenneth Richard, Not Tricks zone, Oct 18, 2018
Lowering Standards
BBC Autumnwatch, Moose and Ticks
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/10/19/bbc-autumnwatch-moose-and-ticks/#more-35934
[SEPP Comment: In the 1950s a moose in New Hampshire was unusual. In recent decades, warnings about moose auto collisions became common]
We’re right about climate change, say the BBC – and let the facts go hang
By David Keighley, The Conservative Woman, Oct 16, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
ABC [Australia Broadcasting System] Climate fiction: Life at 0.5 degrees hotter, dead plants, animals, ghost towns, jellyfish hell
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 14, 2018
MediaWatch: Jo Nova, McLean, Newscorp fools! Govt committees are always right.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 17, 2018
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Al Gore warns: UN climate change report shows ‘we have a global emergency’
By Justin Wise, The Hill, Oct 12, 2018
Hurricane Michael Claims Don’t Stand Up To Scrutiny
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2018
Trump: Climate change scientists have ‘political agenda’
By Staff Writers, BBC News, Oct 15, 2018
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45859325
“Vanishingly few informed scientists now disagree that humans have been driving recent climate change, and that further heating will create serious risks for the climate.
“They don’t expect the climate will materially cool again in a natural cycle.”
[SEPP Comment: Is “informed” defined as I agree with?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
CNN: “Climate change endangers dozens of World Heritage sites”… Unmitigated horst schist
Guest slam dunk by David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 19, 2018
Apex Predator Dies Shortly After the Arrival of Humans, Climate Change Blamed
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 18, 2018
Climate change could cripple world’s beer supply: study
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Oct 15, 2018
Brewers Strike Back at Fake “End of Beer” Climate Change News
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 17, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/17/brewers-strike-back-at-fake-end-of-beer-climate-change-news/
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
What is the Meaningful 97% in the Climate Debate?
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Oct 18, 2018
http://drtimball.com/2018/what-is-the-meaningful-97-in-the-climate-debate/
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
The Green Mob: Dutch Filmmaker Attacked For Climate/Energy Critical Movie …Received “Anonymous Threats”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 14, 2018
Cheeky girl demands moonwalker, geologist to shut his mouth on geology
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Oct 16, 2018
https://motls.blogspot.com/2018/10/cheeky-girl-demands-moonwalker.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Joe Pinkstone Says Beer To Double In Price Because Of Global Warming!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 17, 2018
[SEPP Comment: And brewing the stuff produces CO2!]
Questioning European Green
German industry says new CO2 target threatens jobs
By Edward Taylor, Reuters, Oct 10, 2018
UK plastics recycling industry under investigation for fraud and corruption
Exclusive: Watchdog examining claims plastic waste is not being recycled but left to leak into rivers and oceans
By Sandra Laville, Guardian, UK, Oct 19, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Supporting what Mikko Paunio wrote in “Save the Oceans: Stop recycling plastic” https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2018/06/Save-the-oceans.pdf]
Emissions and Economy in the UK: Shining Example or Dismal Lesson
By John Constable & Gordon Hughes, GWPF, Oct 17, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/emissions-and-economy-in-the-uk-shining-example-or-dismal-lesson/
Govt Announces Plans To Shut Down UK
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/10/19/govt-announces-plans-to-shut-down-uk/
The return of fracking is a victory for common sense
By Ross Clark, The Spectator, UK, Via GWPF, Oct 16, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/the-return-of-fracking-is-a-victory-for-common-sense/
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Robert Samuelson: On Global Warming It’s Mission Impossible
By Robert Samuelson, IBD, Oct 14, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/global-warming-un-report-robert-samuelson/
Will U.S. Success In Cutting Greenhouse Gases Kill The Paris Climate Deal?
Editorial, IBD, Oct 18, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/greenhouse-gases-drop-u-s-paris-climate-deal/
Non-Green Jobs
VW Warning: EU Climate Policies “Threaten the Very Existence” of Germany’s Car Industry
By Staff Writers, GWPF & Spiegel Online, Oct 18, 2018
Funding Issues
Christiana Figueres, the Green Fairy
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Oct 18, 2018
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2018/10/christiana-figueres-green-fairy/
The Political Games Continue
Dems damp down hopes for climate change agenda
By Timothy Cama and Mike Lillis, The Hill, Oct 17, 2018
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/411766-dems-damp-down-hopes-for-climate-change-agenda
Litigation Issues
Business Groups Ask SCOTUS [US Supreme Court] to Shut Down Massachusetts #ExxonKnew Shakedown
By John Glennon, Energy in Depth, Oct 17, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]
https://eidclimate.org/business-groups-ask-scotus-to-shut-down-massachusetts-exxonknew-shakedown/
Dutch appeals court upholds landmark climate change ruling
Netherlands ordered to increase emissions cuts in historic ruling that puts ‘all world governments on notice’
By Arthur Neslen, The Guardian, Oct 9, 2018
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Carbon tax lobbying starts modestly
By Ben Geman, Axios, Oct 19, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]
https://www.axios.com/carbon-tax-lobbying-starts-modestly–41d7f8d1-3c9e-4066-94cc-8a2208d715cb.html
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Electric Car Subsidy Cut Will Make Them Unaffordable For The Foreseeable Future
A “major blow’ for consumers.
By Sara Spary, Huff Post, Oct 13, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA taking UN climate report ‘very seriously,’ agency chief says
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Oct 18, 2018
“Wheeler pointed to new data that found emissions dropped across the U.S. by 2.7 percent in President Trump’s first year in office.”
EPA puts science ‘transparency’ rule on back burner
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 17, 2018
“EPA plans to finalize its rollback of methane pollution rules for oil and natural gas drillers in April, it said. It hopes to propose rolling back more methane standards in December 2019.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
UK’s housing stock ‘needs massive retrofit to meet climate targets’
Hundreds of millions of pounds must be spent to achieve 80% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, report shows
By Fiona, Harvey, The Guardian, Oct 11, 2018
Energy Issues – Australia
Approvals would lift NSW coal output by 2 billion tonnes, defy IPCC
By Peter Hannam & Cole Latimer, The Sydney Morning Herald, Oct 9, 2018
Renewables Reality Bites: Wind & Solar Power Chaos Threatens Complete Grid Collapse
By Staff Writers, Stop These Things, Oct 16, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Graph show erratic” Wind Energy Production During February 2018.”]
Energy Issues — US
Moody’s: Permian basin pipeline constraints to limit 2019 production
By Staff Writers, Oil an& Gas Journal, Oct 10, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Pipeline takeaway capacity will limit expansion of production.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Trump administration opens door for California offshore wind farms
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 18, 2018
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Fracking starts at landmark Lancashire site
By Staff Writers, BBC News, Oct 15, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-lancashire-45825268
Reports: Global Oil Demand Reaches Record Levels And is Expected to Keep Increasing
By John Glennon, Energy In depth, (Independent Petroleum Association of America), Oct 12, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
Return of King Coal?
Coal shortage hits aluminium units
T.C.A. Sharad Raghavan, The Hindu, Oct 10, 2018
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/coal-shortage-hits-aluminium-units/article25183846.ece
Kosovo Government pledges to build new coal power plant without World Bank support
By Staff Writers, Gazeta Express, Oct 11, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Will China step in?]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
US Navy’s Survival – When US Nuclear Industry Dies
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 16, 2018
http://ddears.com/2018/10/16/us-navys-survival-when-us-nuclear-industry-dies/
Opinion: Uranium, Nuclear Poser and National Security
By Paul Stockton, Daily Caller, Oct 16, 2018
https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/16/uranium-nuclear-power-national-security/
IEA warns of challenges from Swiss nuclear phase-out
By Staff Writers, WNN, Oct 9, 2018
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/IEA-warns-of-challenges-from-Swiss-nuclear-phase-o
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
King Island’s renewable energy project a winner: Guy Barnett [Tasmanian Energy Minister]
By Sean Ford, The Advocate, Oct 12, 2018
“Mr Barnett said the project was awarded the Energy Supply Association of Australia (ESAA) Innovation Award 2013 and the United Nations Association of Australia World Environment Day Award 2014.”
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
An update on the King Island Renewable Energy Integration Project
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Oct 16, 2018
http://euanmearns.com/an-update-on-the-king-island-renewable-energy-integration-project/#more-22639
“A number of operating small-scale renewables plants provide advance warning of the potential problems involved in transitioning the world to renewable energy, but only two of them – Gorona del Viento in the Canary Islands (GdV) and King Island, Tasmania (KI) – provide grid data that allow their performance to be checked. In this post I summarize the results of another batch of KI data covering the period from July 15 through September 30, 2018.”
[SEPP Comment: With performance standards such as this, the politicians in Sacramento plan to run the State of California?]
Greek island Tilos is showing the world how to go 100% renewable
By Luciana Pricop, Inhabitat, Oct 11, 2018
https://inhabitat.com/greek-island-tilos-is-showing-the-world-how-to-go-100-renewable/
“The island’s new system will start by supplying renewable energy at 70 percent of Tilos’ needs, and it will reach 100 percent in the near future — undoubtedly serving as a successful model for islands in the region and hopefully worldwide.”
[SEPP Comment: No information on costs and if on-time performance records will be publicly available for this island of 500 people plus tourists.]
Our future: Tomorrow turns on the power of wind turbines
By Andrew Bray, National co-ordinator of the Australian Wind Alliance, The Islander, AU, Oct 15, 2018
https://www.theislanderonline.com.au/story/5698707/tomorrow-turns-on-the-power-of-wind/?cs=13374
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
EPA Doesn’t Have the Legal Authority to Implement E15 Waiver
By Adam Kushner, Real Clear Energy, Oct 17, 2018
Consumers will suffer the hangover from Trump’s ethanol binge
By Colin A. Carter and Henry I. Miller, Washington Examiner, Oct 18, 2018
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Duke plans $500m storage investment
UNITED STATES: Utility Duke Energy has announced plans to invest $500m in energy storage capacity across North and South Carolina by 2033.
By Staff Writers, Wind Power, Oct 12, 2018
https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1495941/duke-plans-500m-storage-investment
“Over the next 15 years, Duke plans to deploy roughly 300MW of battery storage projects, as part of the company’s integrated resource plan.”
[SEPP Comment: How long will the 300MW last?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The physics of why we don’t have solar-powered cars
By Michael J. Coren, Quartz, Oct 15, 2018
https://qz.com/1423288/why-dont-we-have-solar-powered-cars-physics/
[SEPP Comment: Making the sun shine more intensely may be tough.]
The Widespread Social And Environmental Destruction Behind Electric Car Batteries And E-Mobility
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 19, 2018
The Dirt on Clean Electric Cars
New research shows some drivers might spew out less CO2 with a diesel engine.
By Niclas Rolander , Jesper Starn , and Elisabeth Behrmann, Bloomberg, Oct 15, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/the-dirt-on-clean-electric-cars
Carbon Schemes
Could carbon-capture technology be a silver bullet to stop climate change?
Few companies specialize in carbon removal and the tools they produce are currently still expensive
By Emily Holden, The Guardian, Oct 17, 2018
California Dreaming
How will California’s climate ambitions reshape food and agriculture?
Some experts say Gov. Jerry Brown’s pledge for a zero-emissions state won’t be possible without a fundamental shift
By Liz Carlisle, Salon, Oct 14, 2018
Health, Energy, and Climate
Despite record heat, six times as many people die of cold in Australia not heat
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 20, 2018
World Health Organization: Wind Turbine Noise as a Health Hazard (opening recognition likely to lead to more acknowledgement)
By Sherri Lang, Master Resource, Oct 17, 2018
https://www.masterresource.org/wind-turbine-noise-issues/wto-wind-turbine-noise-as-a-health-hazard/
Other News that May Be of Interest
Confidence In Academia Falls Nine Points In Three Years
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, Oct 11, 2018
https://www.acsh.org/news/2018/10/11/confidence-academia-falls-nine-points-three-years-13500
Smart News is an Oxymoron
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 19, 2018
http://ddears.com/2018/10/19/smart-news-is-an-oxymoron/
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Venomous sea creatures on the rise thanks to climate change
Warming oceans could usher in a whole new poison pill of dangerous creatures, from sea snakes to jellies and lionfish.
By Joshua Rapp Learn, National Geographic, Oct 8, 2018
******************
Bugs
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Oct 15, 2018
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/10103
“In recent months several Melbourne councils have added their names to the list of areas officially declared prone to termite attack.
“Several councils did so in 2004 and at least one more is considering it…It is not clear why termite activity is one the rise, but one clue could be global warming, as evidenced by our apparently warmer, and longer lasting summers. The Age, 23 Jul 2007 – screencopy held by this website”
******************
Great news….watch the football instead!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Oct 18, 2018
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/2995
”Research confirms that highly manicured lawns produce more greenhouse gases than they soak up. Grass lawns soak up carbon dioxide, which is stored in the soil after the cut grass roots and so, like trees, they are considered good for the planet.
“But Dr Chuanhui Gu of Appalachian State University in the US says that once the energy expended by mowing, fertiliser use and watering are taken into account, lawns actually produce more greenhouse gases than they soak up. The Independent, 18 Jan 2015”
ARTICLES:
1. Fighters Downed by Hurricane
Why America’s best military aircraft couldn’t fly to escape a storm.
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 16, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fighters-downed-by-hurricane-1539731961
SUMMARY: The editorial states:
“Hurricane Michael did terrible damage in Florida last week, and that may include some of the world’s most capable military aircraft left in its path. But why can’t Air Force F-22 jet fighters, of all things, escape a storm? Answer: They lack the parts to be operational and so were stuck in hangars to take a beating.
“Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said Sunday that the damage to an unspecified number of F-22s on Tyndall Air Force Base was ‘less than we feared.’ But maintenance professionals will have to conduct a detailed assessment before the Air Force can say with certainty that the planes will fly again. Press reports estimate that at least a dozen planes were left on the base due to maintenance and safety issues.
“Welcome to a fighting force damaged by bad political decisions and misguided priorities. Of the Air Force’s 186 F-22s, only about 80 are “mission capable,” according to a July analysis from the Government Accountability Office. The average across the Air Force in 2017 was that about 7 in 10 planes were mission capable, which is still too low for meeting increasing demands.
“Part of the F-22 problem is upkeep on a coating that helps the planes evade radar. Another issue is the supply chain for parts now that the U.S. no longer produces the airplane, and “some original manufacturers no longer make the parts or are completely out of business,” GAO notes. Air Force officials told GAO that a simple wiring harness requires a 30-week lead time for finding a new contractor and producing the part. Ripping out parts from planes that work, or “cannibalizing,” is now common practice in military aviation.
“Then there’s scale, or lack thereof. The Air Force in the 1990s planned for about 650 F-22s, which were designed to replace the F-15. That number fell to about 380 over time, according to GAO, but in 2009 President Obama and Defense Secretary Bob Gates convinced Congress to shut down the production line.
“At the time Messrs. Obama and Gates argued that the U.S. had to focus on defeating unconventional enemies (Islamic State), whereas the F-22 is designed for air dominance against conventional national forces, which could also be handled by the new F-35.
“This now looks like a mistake, as Russia and China improve their military technology and the F-35 continues to have a cascade of problems. The Pentagon last week grounded the entire F-35 fleet for a fuel tube issue, though most were cleared to fly again as of Monday. Now the F-35 is the only fighter show in town. The Air Force looked at restarting the F-22 production line and predicted it’d cost billions to launch. That isn’t happening.
“The larger mistake of the Obama years was cutting defense willy-nilly to pay for entitlements and other priorities, which meant military units in all branches were crunched for training, flight hours and maintenance. Budget uncertainty through “continuing resolutions” from Congress compounded the pain.”
The editorial concludes with issues concerning the upcoming election.
******************
2. Harness the Market to Manage the Climate
The problem is dire, but the solution isn’t command and control.
By Fred Krupp, WSJ, Oct 15, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/articles/harness-the-market-to-manage-the-climate-1539645210
SUMMARY: The president of the Environmental Defense Fund writes:
“Last week gave the world a ghastly climate show-and-tell. First came the new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, confirming that our climate is already changing rapidly and telling us we have a dozen years to act if we are to manage the risk of ecological and economic devastation. Then Hurricane Michael came ashore in Florida after growing from Category 2 to Category 4 in less than 24 hours—showing one reason scientists are so concerned.
“Because of the problem’s severity, some say we need a command-and-control solution, with governments telling companies how to retool. Climate change is an urgent problem, but that’s not the right approach. The world instead should harness the marketplace—the most powerful force available. Here are three policies that would help:
“• Slow deforestation and restore damaged forests. Properly managed woodlands help avoid emissions by not burning the trees and also draw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis.” [Details dropped.]
“• Cut short-term climate pollutants such as methane. These gases stay in the atmosphere for less time than carbon dioxide but trap far more heat while there. Methane, the chief component of natural gas, is responsible for a quarter of all current warming. The largest industrial source of methane pollution is the global oil-and-gas industry, so EDF is launching a satellite to measure and map these emissions world-wide. Our goal is a 45% reduction in methane pollution from oil and gas by 2025. This would deliver the same climate benefit over the next 20 years as closing about one-third of the world’s coal-fired power plants.
“• Stop letting companies pollute for free. In most of the world, there is no economic incentive for corporations to reduce pollution. But if they had to pay every time they put a ton of emissions into the atmosphere, they’d find creative ways to reduce pollution. By itself, a tax on pollution doesn’t guarantee reductions, so any carbon pricing policy must include enforceable limits to ensure emissions are cut as much as the science demands. As the work of the Nobel Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus makes clear, pricing carbon is a much cheaper way of hitting climate goals than command-and-control regulations.
“Scientists, investors and philanthropists also are exploring ways to remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere. It’s a challenge, but a system that pays a bounty for carbon soaked out of the sky would spur a race to develop and commercialize this promising concept.
“Some people would get rich, and that’s OK. If videogames and iPhone apps can create wealth, so can saving the world.”
Remember to evacuate the beachfront properties in New Zealand because they said so.
Hey Yall,
Check out this interview of Fox News.
Great piece of Journalism as Mark Levin interviews Patrick J. Michaels American Association of State Climatologists Former President
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmqqRF9lkfw
Good clear account of what’s happening with “Climate Theory” on current Fox news!
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
Although at current atmospheric CO2 concentrations IR absorption (and thus emission) approximately has a log relationship with increasing CO2, that relationship becomes much more linear as CO2 concentration decreases. The log relation occurs because of the absorption contribution of outer “wings” in the 15 micron absorption band. These absorptions are much smaller than at 15 um (e.g., two orders of magnitude lower at ~13.5 and 16.5 microns). These wing absorptions produce the significant broadening observed in the 15 um band, particularly in low-water atmospheres. As CO2 increases, these outer vibrational-rotational absorptions become increasingly important because their final IR emission to space occurs lower in the atmosphere than does the 15 um absorption, and thus have a greater emission rate. With lower CO2 concentrations, absorption-emission from the distant parts of these “wings” do not occur at all.
Consequently, at much lower CO2 the 15 um absorption-emission has greater dominance and the relationship approaches linear. It is not permissible to trace the log effect back to near the origin.
Might be easier for them to get rid of the SO2 from White and North Island.
“Join 50,086 other subscribers”
Another milestone achieved!
While everyone seems to focus on GHG radiative effects and feedbacks from H2O something that puzzles me is that according to the various popular ‘Earth energy budget’ diagrams, that amounts to a relatively small proportion of absorbed solar energy that leaves as heat from the surface. This 2017 paper figure 4 refers:
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/601/2017/essd-9-601-2017.pdf
It shows evaporation (evaporative cooling) and interrelated sensible heat (convection) as comprising 64% of the heat lost from the surface.
While it is argued that if temperatures rise there will be a feedback in increased water vapour GHG effect, why is it that no one seems to be interested in what would seem to be a bigger effect in increased evaporative cooling from a bigger pool, together with increased convection and potentially greater cloud cover?
Yet another excellent roundup.
Yeah like a kiwi is going to give up his sheep !
Ken leads with an authoritative source: “The Official Publication of The New Zealand Institute of Primary Industry Management, by Jock Allison and Thomas Sheahen”, neither of whom knows much about climate science.
“Many scientific assessments consider that the total effect of water vapour is more like 90% [of the GHE]”…
…but the above article doesn’t cite even one such “scientific assessment”. There are none.
The truth is that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere drops from 1000-4000 ppm near most of the surface to 3 ppm at the tropopause. Most of the photons that escape to space are emitted from GHGs well above the altitude at which water vapor becomes the dominant greenhouse gas, at least as measured by ppm. Radiative transfer calculations have no problem dealing with this changing mix of GHGs with altitude. Unfortunately, the combined effect of multiple GHGs on OLR is NOT the linear sum of each GHG’s individual effect OLR, making any discussion of the percentage contributed by any one GHG meaningless.
“One could argue it is too difficult to incorporate water vapor in the models”.
Grossly incorrect. The effect of changing water vapor can be explored by any reader at the online MODTRAN website:
http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/
“The potential effectiveness of GHGs in influencing temperature depends essentially on five factors …”
… but the temperature of the GHG is not listed as a factor. Everyone knows that GHGs absorb thermal IR, but we often forget that they emit it too. Their emission varies with T^4. As upward radiation travels to colder altitudes, absorbed photons are replaced with emitted photons, but fewer photons because it is colder. There would be no GHE on our planet if it had the same temperature at all altitudes! Both calculations and observations show there is no GHE over the central Antarctic Plateau where temperature on the average doesn’t change with altitude.
“By ignoring water vapor as the primary greenhouse gas, the IPCC ignores the practical fact that water vapor severely limits the ability of methane and nitrous oxide to absorb outgoing (upgoing) radiation, severely limiting their greenhouse gas potential.”
Another gross mistake. Try for yourself at the online MODTRAN calculator by doubling methane (0.85 to 1.7 ppm) with normal water vapor (1.0) and 20% more water vapor (1.2). Saturation vapor pressure increases about 20% for a 3 degC rise in temperature. Doubling methane reduces OLR by 0.7 W/m2 with normal humidity and 0.6 W/m2 with 20% more water vapor. (US Standard Atmosphere, no clouds).
“There are very tiny amounts of CH4 and N2O in the atmosphere.” “We assert therefore that the GWP values of both CH4 and N2O are vastly overstated by the IPCC … it is suggested that these gases be removed from New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory”
An increase in CH4 from 0.85 ppm (roughly pre-industrial) to today’s 1.7 ppm decreases radiative cooling to space by 0.7 W/m2 So does an increase in CO2 from 340 (1960) to 400 ppm (present). (Using the US Standard Atmosphere with no clouds). Absolute amounts are misleading. Despite the narrow width of methane’s absorption. The CO2 band looks similarly narrow at 1 ppm. Total nonsense.
“A major defect in the IPCC models is the treatment of water vapor as a feedback mechanism from warming caused by carbon dioxide (CO2)”
Another deception. AOGCMs calculate radiative cooling to space through waver vapor and other GHGs every few 15 minutes. When more water vapor enter a given AOGCM grid cell, less thermal IR passes through that grid cell during the next calculation 15 minutes later (model time). If more CO2 entered that grid cell, the same thing would happen. The radiative transfer modules of AOGCMs treat water vapor and CO2 similarly.
When discussing the theoretical aspects of GHG-mediated warming (not calculating it), CO2 and water vapor are treated differently. Suppose a doubling of CO2 were known to cause an equilibrium warming of 1 degC – if water vapor remained unchanged. That warming would put more humidity in the air. The additional water vapor, a GHG, might cause an addition 0.5 degC of warming – if water vapor again remained unchanged. The additional 0.5 degC of warming will put more water vapor into the air causing 0.25 degC more warming. And so on. Summing the infinite series produces 1 degC of warming added by rising water vapor to the 1 degC from CO2 itself. The IPCC says that the CO2 forcing produces 1 degC of warming that is amplified by feedback from water vapor.
Calling rising CO2 a “forcing” and rising H2O feedback is purely a formalism that in useful in discussing some situations, confusing in others, and irrelevant to what goes on in an AOGCM.
It helps to remember that The Science and Environmental Policy Project is a lobbying group. Don’t expect to hear “the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth” from them.