The latest model ensemble plots show that Matthew is likely to make landfall near Cape Canaveral, and then make a big loop out to sea, and backwards towards Florida. here are the 18Z model runs. Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says that up to 17 million people may be affected by Tropical Storm force wind gusts.
Added: NHC now has an essentially circular potential track cone due to this loopback, something I can’t ever recall seeing.
Link to .kmz file is here if you want to look at it in Google Earth yourself.
Do a right click and “save as”, complete download, double click it and it will open Google Earth (assuming you have it installed) . See the model output in “temporary places” folder in the left sidebar pane. Loads of data available that you can enable and disable with checkboxes.
Dr. Maue did a population impact analysis:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784097047641198592
Worst case scenario with eye wall skirting the coast:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784102864234901504
He adds commentary about the loopback:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784098871337189377
Note: Some minor spelling, grammar, and punctuation errors were corrected within an hour of publication
I like you guys when you’re not obsessed with slamming AGW or renewable energy.
I mostly see very sensible, scientific discussion of very specific weaknesses of the “catastrophic” AGW hypothesis and renewable energy on this website. That is not “slamming” in my opinion.
No, slamming is the perfect word. I also like this site for it’s offbeat and challenging style, but the continual right wing criticism of science does get a bit wearing. However, on stuff like this Hurricane threatening Florida, the site is extremely good.
I completely disagree, Gareth. Challenging conclusions and the assumptions behind them is part of the very core of science. This site posts and uses evidence and information in its discussions, not political ideology or conjecture. If you consider that a “slam”, then that should inform you as to the shoddiness of the work being examined.
Right wing criticism of science? I used consider myself a moderate democrat, then democrats stopped thinking, so now I just consider myself an independent for fear of being lumped in with them.
Criticism of bad science (Democrat also).
Fascinating how you assume that it’s right wing slamming of science?
Just how is pointing out the flaws in the computer models and data collection, right wing?
I thought science was science.
Now AGW is more politics than science, maybe that’s your problem.
Amen, brother. We don’t want to spend oodles of money accomplishing nothing and live like paupers or 1st millenium people.
Correct Kerry!
The AGW hoax represents a grave threat to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. And “extremism in defense of liberty is no vice.” Being “obsessed with slamming AGW” is a virtue for any American. Where do you live?
Hi Sir Harry
Sceptics are slamming AGW’s nonsensical science.
AGW advocates propose slamming, imprisoning (and even worse) of sceptics.
Where do you stand?
The slamming bit is the right wing crew obsessed with squeezing climate science into a right wing agenda. How often have we seen the terms “warmunist” and legitimate concerns used as a criticism against Obama? Even now posters are using the site to promote Trump for President. That’s the sort of stuff that can get tedious. The science itself is always welcome.
yea, freedom of thought can get messy at times…..
Quote Gareth Phillips
I’ll guarantee you that the term “Warmunist” hasn’t been used as a criticism against Pres. B. O. nearly 1/4 as much as the term “Denialist” has been used as a highly negative criticism against Climate Realists
Warmunist? You mean the natural response from a decade of being called a “Den!er”
In case you haven’t noticed, some renewable energy (wind , solar) is a scam. It fully deserves to be critiqued, something the greenies and media are incapable of doing. To listen to those folks, solar/wind is cheap and equivalent to a reliable power technology. That, my friend, is an absurd and obscene lie.
If we were in court, they would be guilty of perjury.
And also in case you haven’t noticed, the renewable energy scam is heavily subsidized by the government, and AGW hoax promoted by the government, and only one of the two major political parties is largely responsible. So it is impossible to decouple renewable energy and climate science from politics here.
Yeah, I like Scientific American when they’re not obsessed with ramming AGW down our throats.
Sadly, it’s been a while.
I like the New Scientist when they are not doing the same thing. New science and new anti-science don’t mix well.
And we like you trolls when you are – somewhere else.
While I disagree with his opinion, he’s hardly a troll for stating it.
So long as we aren’t pointing out your lies and weaknesses, you like us.
Gee whiz, that’s nice of you.
And we like you guys when you’re not obsessed with putting your hands in our pockets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8TUwHTfOOU
Sir Harry, Gareth Phillips, These posts are about a dangerous hurricane. The people here a concerned about friends, loved ones, and acquaintances in its path. Yet you come here peddling your self-serving sanctimonious CAGW drivel. My thoughts for you you, are that it would be for the best to all if you go pound sand in your a$$
Note: to those here my brother and his wife are in Florida on vacation I am a bit concerned so please excuse my bluntness.
MtM,
Agree. it’s astounding that these idiots would take advantage of an emerging catastrophe to make political points. then again, no it’s not. it’s par for the course (which Obama is intimately familiar with–hitting the links in times of crisis).
Also, my son is in Florida too, just flew down yesterday. Fortunately, he’s on the west coast where it looks more like rain and strong breezes. Hope your brother and his wife are safe. (effin’ mor@ns.)
I sincerely hope that they emerge unscathed with a story that will thrill the family around your holiday table.
Brian,
Thank you for the comment and concern. They won their first game today, but not sure how many they will get in over the weekend. As noted, they’re on the west side so won’t get the worst of it, but I’m sure they’ll come back with some stories. (Timing really sucked, though.)
We all have loved ones in the path. For me, a Brother, sister, mother and aunt. Just got word from my sister (who is with my mother) they are over in Orlando at a Hampton inn. I am very worried about my aunt – paraplegic in Vero Beach. I have not heard from her in the past 24 hours.
I hope people have enough sense to realize no model shows a loopback as a hurricane
I assume you are not in the current “cone” ??
just got out of it….it’s that kind of ridiculous hype that turns people off
If it goes back over the area that is strengthening it now, in five days, could that strengthen it again?
The hurricane will have cooled the waters significantly on its first pass, making conditions less friendly to hurricane formation or strengthening.
No, shear that is forecast to impact the storm is more this issue of what will choke off Matthews str
trusting models?
That is a slight change from the 11am path. This one is vexing all the Meteorologists.
And Hurricane Nicole is churning away south of Bermuda and not expected to move much. I expect this will keep Matthew from moving out into the Atlantic when it finally turns to the north east.
Is this the stroke of luck we need to rescue those astronauts marooned in space?
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064639/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_35
…For the young’ums: In Marooned, with only minutes to spare, NASA is about to send a rescue shuttle when a massive hurricane bearing down on Cape Canaveral shuts it all down. So what did they do…?
I was JUST thinking of that movie. I saw it as a kid but did not remember the title.
Not sure it is so much an obsession with slamming AGW or renewables as much as it is an obsession with the truth about their respective accuracy and reliability. Certainly Florida would stand a strong likelihood of a State Wide outage ala South Australia were they as dependant on renewables as that state. Fortunately for Florida though they have very little reliance on Renewables at the moment
http://d342k2t1ugg5gi.cloudfront.net/resources/20150319111336/FPL-Florida-fuel-mix-chart.jpg
Source https://floridasolardesigngroup.com/floridas-energy-mix-is-a-concern-for-the-future/
Though the “7% Purchased Power” could have an effect on Grid Stability depending on which assets are affected.
Unfortunately with a population of 22M and estimates of up to 17M affected, the state residents are in for a big whooping.
Further, with the estimate of almost 9M W/O power that is alomst 1/2 and could, in itself, cause some grid instability
Fortunately for the state though, more then 92% of their electric mix is Fossil Based whose output can be adjusted quickly to maintain stability factors
You can’t really build breakables in tropical/subtropical zones. The Cyclones have ways to break windmills and solar panels even if they are stowed away. The SA storm was less than CAT 1 wind gusts in the areas that the damage happened although it did have 140kph (CAT 2) size wind gusts in other areas. It was I suppose a Sandy level storm, sub cyclonic but not much.
When you look at tree damage though it really wasn’t that strong – compared to say Brisbane’s regular storms every couple of years which reach CAT 3 speed winds, tend to flatten the treescape but don’t wipeout the state grid.
SA being in a temperate area wasn’t prepared for a cyclone level storm.
For those in Florida – Batten down the hatches, pull out your storm plans, and see you in a day or too.
Don’t think I’d invest in any wind turbans in Florida. Well… maybe just one, a small one on the stern rail of my sail boat. But that one never had to lived in Florida during hurricane season.
10 posts on this hurricane forecast in the last 3 days! Every time a gust of wind approaches the US the posting gets obsessive. And as always, when it makes landfall it will only be a tropical storm and all the doom-monger pundits will as always explain that even tropical storms can be excitingly dangerous.
Perhaps you should be on the beach as Matthew comes ashore. If you are so sure of your statement, why aren’t you there?
Tom
Email me the flight ticket and I’ll be on the next plane
Too late; it couldn’t land until Matthew is gone.
Typical liberal. expecting someone else to pick up the tab.
Has a the same hurricane ever struck the same place twice?
Yes – twice in the 60’s and once in the 70’s. I heard about that yesterday.
not sure but TS Allison circled SE Texas a few times before moving out.
According to Google Earth Matthew and Nicole are about 840 mi apart. Why are they not converging?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
evidently Matthew and Nicole don’t read Wikipedia…..
They don’t get along…
It would be beneficial for Nicole to sap some of Matthews strength though. Must be sibling rivalry
I like how one model just said “f*ck it, it’s going straight”. I wonder, in that model, would the current storm system in the center of the country incorporate the tropical storm.
you don’t understand how some of those models work, do you?
Some of the models but not the other models, you do?
Yes, as a matter of fact, I do. The straight line you are referring to is the XTRP model or, simply, ‘Extrapolation’ of the current course of the storm. It is useful for some situations, others (like a strongly curving track), not so useful … but it is displayed anyway. (see http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_14.gif). All of the other models are a variety of dynamical, statistical or a combination of both. This is an exhaustive list with brief description. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
IDK, the Bahamas are going to get slammed twice if this loop happens and then where is Matthew going to go? If it gets into the Gulf look out.
Oh, and you know this is going to all be blamed on Gorebull warming.
Well of course it is…Don b rediculus … Climate change is what caused the polar troughs to extend so low toward the south and accutely reverse north and it is that same polar trough which will steer Matthew NE along the coast. What Nicole does and where she is at the time will determine where Matthew goes after visiting WallyWorld in Florida
It looks like Florida and environs is going to get slammed pretty hard by Matthew. I hope everyone concerned is taking the proper precautions. Joe Bastardi was describing a pretty disturbing scenario of upcoming events just a few minutes ago on the Sean Hannity radio show.
What? CNN just reported parts of south eastern Florida will be hit by 20-40 foot waves.
That’s absurd unless this is a Sharknado event.
No, it’s absurd because it’s CNN.
No doubt the storm to hit Florida is a serious matter but all of the panicky superlatives being touted in the press should only scare the childern. The Gulf and East coast have ALWAYS had to deal with Hurricanes. Cuba, Haiti, and Bermuda are regularly bashed by them. What bothers me is how the lack of any historical knowledge or experience has made it possible for the press to turn these things into “SUPERBOWLS OF DOOM”. Fifty years ago the public would know that a bad storm was happening and that there was some danger to ordinary folk in that location. The report would occupy about 3-4 minutes on the nightly news unless something genuinely unique occurred. The huge failure of the power grid would be treated as the fault of piss poor planning by government and utilities not some necessary consequence of the sort of storms that happen in Florida from time to time. That said ptolemy2 it is the first Hurricane in quite awhile and meteorologists like Anthony likely to be fascinated at the new critter that came out to play
In 1985 Juan hit the Louisiana coast twice, looping around in the Gulf of Mexico. I was in New Orleans when it hit. The winds were not bad, and as I remember it was mostly a tropical storm, but the rain flooded a major part of the metropolitan area, especially the West Bank.
Interesting to watch the station reports in real time. Freetown (just east of Freeport in the Bahamas) *looks* like it’s about 25-30 miles from the eye at present and squarely in the bull’s eye of Matthew’s path. Winds currently easterly at 56 mph (and have been for the last hour or so). No doubt the wind will increase toward the eye, but this layman is a bit skeptical about Matthew making landfall in FL as a Cat 4 (ground level winds). Thoughts?
Theyouk, could you leave us a link to the Freetown station so we can all see?
Incidentally, I’ve been watching http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html and the track looks to be well north of north-west, perhaps 345 degrees. So the eye could miss Florida yet. I hope so, for the sake of the Florid People, and also for the sake of the continuing drought!
Rich.
The eye appears to be over Freeport–winds just dropped from 100 to 81 in the last 15 mins.
Current wind speeds at Sebastian Inlet are 15-20mph at 6pm EST time. Lake Worth,FL 25-30mph currently.Port Everglade 15-20mph This is from NOAA stations real time
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pvgf1
Very hard to find reliable wind reporting in this area. TWC is showing weird numbers for Freeport (problems with 3-digit speeds?), and WU shows as being ‘offline’ the last 31 hrs–yet is still reporting winds of 97, gusting to 121.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8TUwHTfOOU
The global synoptic maps are showing unusually high pressure in the upper part of the northern hemisphere which is forcing the jet stream tracks into large equatorward distortions.
If Matthew does loop back in such an unusual manner then that will be the reason.
Such distortions of the jet streams are associated with periods of low solar activity which appear to warm the stratosphere above the poles thereby lowering tropopause height at the poles which forces the entire global air circulation system towards the equator.
In case nobody is aware, there is a fairly important piece of equipment right in the path of Hurricane Matthew at Cape Canaveral…the new NOAA GOES-R satellite is there to be (hopefully) launched in a few weeks (Nov. 4th).
http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/lockheed-martin-organizations/noaas-goes-r-weather-satellite-delivered-astrotech-final-processing/
Let us hope the satellite is not damaged & the spaceport damage is minimal.
Mods – I’ve tried twice to post a message concerning NOAA’s GOES-R satellite @Cape Canaveral but it is not posting…WUWT???