Holy crap on a cracker! This Q&A with Michael Mann at some blog nobody has ever heard of called “Down with Tyranny” leaves me wondering, what is he smoking? I think the self imposed “climate interpreter” title needs some work.
-by Gaius Publius
One of my hats is as a climate interpreter to the interested lay person. I have something of a science background and can read the papers “in the original.” Another hat is as an occasional interviewer for Virtually Speaking. This month the two hats merged on the same head, and I got to interview the “Hockey Stick graph” climate scientist, Dr. Michael Mann. – See more at: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2014/10/michael-mann-on-climate-theres-very.html#sthash.y25kBteI.dpuf
[QUESTION] What level of CO2 is reasonable?
[ANSWER] Most still think that 350 ppm (parts per million) CO2 is what’s needed to keep us at the upper end of Holocene (era of civilized human culture) temperatures. For contrast, the ice ages averaged about 180 ppm CO2 at the bottom, and pre-industrial (pre-1750) concentrations were about 280 ppm CO2. Pre-industrial temperatures were at the bottom of the Holocene (post–ice age) temperature range, so there’s some headroom above that 280 ppm number. How much exactly? No one knows.
It looks like we’re headed for a IPCC-“safe” 450 ppm CO2 unless we stop. Not safe, IMO; nor in Dr. Mann’s. For starters, this “450 ppm” measures CO2 only, not other GHGs like methane and nitrous oxide. The effective ppm in “CO2 equivalent” with those other added GHGs is higher if only CO2 is at 450.
It’s roughly thought that the original ice sheet formations of 35 million years ago, which gave us modern Antarctic, Greenland and Arctic ice, occurred in a cooling environment that crossed below CO2 concentrations in the range of 550-400 ppm or so.
First, that’s a wide range. Second, that’s no indication of what will happen going the other direction, where the warming tipping points are. Hansen writes, correctly IMO, that real climate sensitivity depends on (a) the starting point (i.e., how near we are to tipping points), and (b) the direction (effect of warming of X amount is not necessarily correlated to the effect of cooling of that same amount).
Nevertheless, the massive uncertainty, plus the world-historical consequences, gives most of us pause. Me, I think 450 ppm CO2 is ultimately a death sentence for civilized humans. Back to life as hunter-gatherers for our third- or fourth-generation descendants. And if worldwide social chaos takes over before we stop, the process could run to conclusion, which, the old IPCC A1FI scenario says, tops out at +7°C warming.
On Mann:
“First, he’s actually good on the politics, better than most. But second, I wanted to get his thoughts regarding next steps. For me the key, core messages are — Stop Now… Zero Carbon “Budget” … Free Market Solutions Won’t Work. He surprised me in agreeing with the third point, and I hope he carries that message to the public going forward. He was already mainly on board on the first two, but I wanted to hear him say so for the record, since I hadn’t encountered his public comment on this. “
Source: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2014/10/michael-mann-on-climate-theres-very.html
H/t to Steve Mosher
Let’s all do our bit to help reach 450ppm! I’m going to get a coal burner for home heating. What are YOU going to do?
🙂
I want to go hunting and gathering too! Lions don’t scare me:
Yes, the life of a noble savage is alluring. We gaze at the chilling stars, wondering when the Hansen Constellation -which the ancients called Canis Major- will foretell a return of Mann the God-Sage, when the oceans will freeeze and the Stick of Hock will sweep all unworthy into the arms of Denial-ia, goddess of the dark fearful underworld of Carbon-Sink.
CO2 helps plants grow. I intend to do a lot of gathering.
Let’s grow some BIG apples!
In recent decades the biosphere has been greening for some odd reason. World food production has recently been reported to be at record levels for some odd reason. Greenhouse growers typically recommend 1,000ppm for some odd reason. Finally, where is the worsening trend in extreme weather? It seems the more co2 we pump out the better things get!
It was just a regional blip. Nothing to see here folks.
http://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0277379113000553-gr7.jpg
Chop wood for my dad at his place (I don’t have a fireplace/stove).
Eric, we heat mainly with firewood at the farm. Oops, too carbon neutral. Switching to propane…
Dr. Mann is actually right, just not quite the way in which he envisions it. When the earth reaches 450 ppm Co2 and the world sees that it has resulted in a boon for the bio-diversity of the planet, they will hunt and gather all the CAGW alarmists and demand their money back.
Use them for fuel if the much vaunted “catastrophic warming” fails to reach Minnesota 😉
I’m Installing two wood stoves…
Get 3..
Fuel one with CAGWists, the other with Democrats. See what burns brightest.
This seems like it might work, until you realize that CAGWists are Democrats and vice-versa. There is no separating the two.
No Noes!!! It clearly states above high CO2 concentrations are associated with the world slipping back into an ice age.
“It’s roughly thought that the original ice sheet formations of 35 million years ago, which gave us modern Antarctic, Greenland and Arctic ice, occurred in a cooling environment that crossed below CO2 concentrations in the range of 550-400 ppm or so.”
HIgh CO2 will tip us into an ice age!!! Somebody tell the IPCC it is back to the 70’s again.
There are no words that do justice to this inanity.
I think Nelson Muntz could suggest a couple.
Humans switched from hunting-gathering to agriculture when it got warm and the CO2 became abundant enough to support increased plant growth. No evidence whatsoever that increasing temps would cause a reversion.
And if he can’t understand that free market solutions are the only thing that works, he’s delusional.
“Humans switched from hunting-gathering to agriculture when it got warm and the CO2 became abundant enough to support increased plant growth.”
There was enuf CO2 for that several billion years ago.
Yes, CO2 was very plentiful, and caused no problems whatever. So, where is your god now?
Yup, but no humans to do the switch. Only happened this interglacial.
The harder Warmists try the more determined I am to pump out as much co2 as I can. I am convinced most of them are delusional.
That’s after we ban CPR.
Right?
My last comment was for Jimbo. /sarc
Hunting and gathering societies have been much too maligned. At least such societies do not institutionalize chicken littlism.
And they had lots and lots of free oysters too.
Too many drone s out there.You have to raise people into an ideology and that’s why the US govt wants to teach your kids. Orwellian classes 1984-don’t worry were watching! fall in line. and don’t forget we care about U
Maybe high co2 in the Amazon evenings explains why some indigenous people there still hunt and gather. / SARC
Abstract – 2004
Increasing biomass in Amazonian forest plots
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/359/1443/353
This might backfire. I have known many who are very worried about warming that think humans made a mistake leaving our hunter gatherer past behind us.
Randy, I’m guessing those are also the ones that have thought things through and know that without animal husbandry and agriculture, the earth would only support a small fraction of the current population. What could go wrong (they should be asking themselves)?
About month 2 or 3 or 4, when every bush and tree has been picked over and every bit of wild game has been taken, they will have to compete against the other hunter-gatherers for whatever is left. They better be prepared to eliminate the competition before the competition eliminates them.
Yup. This is the fundamental point that they do not understand
I have tried explaining that farming and burning coal helps save the forests. Deforestation for firewood is happening NOW! Would it not be better to burn coal than cut down trees (not necessarily replaced) for firewood? Should I mention loss of animal habitat too?
If this can happen in wealthy Germany just think of poor developing countries.
The world is reaching breaking point due to Warmists’ misguided policies.
What exactly will they be hunting? It’s not like the wildlife will have sustainable populations.
Better not follow that thought to the logical conclusion.
Each other.
Yes they do without external inputs a hunter gather society optimize it population on the land, the human population exceeds the lands carrying capacity human self correct the population adjust( that was a nice way of saying humans starve.) If the climate changes the human population will either expand or contract depending on the direction of the climate change, if the climate changes to much the wrong direction a hunter gatherer population will go extinct. I think the earth carrying capacity for hunter gather human population is less than a million, it could be large but I certain it would not exceed a hundred million. No we do not want to go back to those times, and I doubt 450 PPm of CO2 would cause that to happen most intelligent people would expect the opposite, of intelligent and Dr Mann are light years apart.
Yup, and their private jets fly around the world (with titanium fan blades), whilst professing ….
Um…. just what are they professing ??
humans made a mistake leaving our hunter gatherer past behind us.
==========
“Many were increasingly of the opinion that they’d all made a big mistake in coming down from the trees in the first place. And some said that even the trees had been a bad move, and that no one should ever have left the oceans.”
http://www.planetclaire.org/quotes/hitchhikers/
What in God’s name is a “climate interpreter”??????????
Does it include crystals and eye of newt? Ouija board? Subscription to Ta Da Magazine, voice of magicians everywhere?
Good grief these people are……..crap, can’t come up with a G rated description………
It’s the alternative to a climate compiler. CLIMATE is the new (Monty) PYTHON. With statements like:
ELEVENTY!
OMG!
WORSER();
WORSTEST();
DENIER!
etc.
No matter what code you write, the output is always the same.
Perhaps John Cook would know. Isn’t he a “climate communicator” now. Apparently there is some kind of language barrier that afflicts enough people that interpreters and communicators are now required. I’d love to see them standing next to someone like Mickey Mann or James Hansen during lectures like deaf interpreters do!
JOSH! We need a cartoon of such a scenario!
Climate interpreter is to a community organizer as the false prophet is to the antichrist.
…these people are…
Barking mad
Mad as a hatter
Bonkers
Mad dogs
Rabid
Carbon Cultists
Barmy in the crumpet.
Toys in the attic?
Truly gone fishing?
Several fries short of a Happy Meal?
Special?
Certifiable?
The lights are on, but nobody is home.
A couple of cans short of a six-pack.
High Priests, medicine men, and shamans interpret “Signs from the Gods” for the common people (and if they value their heads, they slant the interpretation in favor of their rulers.) Since science is now incomprehensible to the common man (because our educational system has been subverted) media talking heads interpret it for us. Unfortunately for them, the “common man” isn’t as stupid as they’d like to believe.
What in God’s name is a “climate interpreter”??????????
The answer is here:
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/6/19/here-come-de-heap-big-warmy.html
It’s the form you put your climate code in that can be run through climate compiler down to the climate assembler and hence readable at one end by humans and the other by machines.
😉
Permian had a 30 million year low of CO2 similar to our current 20 million year low. In between there was 250 million year period with 1000-2000 PPM and life flourished (with exception of those nasty asteroids).
450 is now bad? We should stay at 280-300 and wait for the next ice age to drop it below 150 and kill most land animals, including us? No I’m quite happy with increasing yields and CO2 climbing up to 600+ PPM.
Hey Josh, this screams for a cartoon about the elusive “climate whisperer”…….
Beat me to it!
I should have kept reading! Great minds!
Hunting and gathering research grants?
Mann already is a hunter-gatherer. He hunts for suckers then gathers in the money.
That seems to be a reference/comparison to being able to the original of the text of the Bible. There are many that could read it “in the original” that still had no clue what it was talking about.
But I also wonder if the reference about reading papers “in the original” is a tip to his role in “peer-review”?
(I’m sure someone can supply the appropriate Climategate reference. I don’t have it off hand.
I wonder if any of his hats matches that white sweatshirt he has that ties in the back…
I’m seeing a whole line of fashionable sciency hats we could sell here!
IMO the guy needs a new hat.
Beany with a whirly propeller, perhaps?
Oh, you really do not want to know how often these people mention that feudalism is an appropriate model for the future. Herman Daly does it in his for the common good book. In the conclusion of my book I point to a deeply disturbing 2006 Club of Rome report published in Poland that metions feudalism as well. It’s not the moats or knight’s gear either. It’s the ability of political power to dictate what people can or cannot do.
The point I wanted to make though goes to the virtual reality modeling and gaming in the classroom and Next Generation Science Standards for K-12 in the US. They are all falsely teaching that the climate is a closed system. That what goes in must shift the ‘equilibrium’ somewhere. It’s not true, but students are to taught falsehoods so they will be primed to act from instinct and emotion and not facts.
Well, Plato had even worse ideas, with his Philosopher-King state. No contact with the outer world, all citizens who are sent abroad subjected to comprehensive brainwashing, an extremely strict class society. And all would be happy. It really reminds me of our own alarmists.
Speaking of Plato, a good way to describe what is really going on in education as well as the Mann-led vision of CAGW is that we are all to think we are experiencing reality even though we are actually in a stage-managed cave looking at contrived shadows.
Mann yelps or sues when people try to call out that we are looking at mere shadows. We are supposed to accept the consensus that either is not acute enough to distinguish shadows from reality or has gotten lucrative financing to proclaim a certain truth without looking.
Here’s to continuing to perceive accurately instead of using the vision assigned.
Hunter-gatherers? Maybe that’s why my mouth watered when 3 TOUSes (Turkeys of Unusual Size) wandered across my backyard yesterday. I also had the urge to throw my camera at them.
As long as your mouth doesn’t water at the thought of similar Rodents!
(That movie was a classic.)
Bob,
Try leaving a trail of shelled corn from your backyard, into your house, through the kitchen and into the oven. With a little bit of luck, Thanksgiving dinner will take care of itself.
Bob, on my farm we throw lead shot at wild turkeys. Sometimes successfully. Sort of brings you back to the founders. Is very tangible.
You need venison, give a shout. We get tired donating Wisconsin ‘dairy deer’ to the state foodbank program. And with fewer active hunters and still no wolves the problem grows every year. Harvesting 6 on opening day is getting to be a disappointment. Read Sand Hill Country for reference. Just a hundred miles northeast of my overrun by CWD farm.
Regards to a self taught ocean expert from whom I have learned a lot.
Impressing, what’s his education? Non?
And the first thing the hunter-gatherers will gather will be the head of Michael Mann and all the other leeches currently sucking the teats of taxpayer money funded government research scams….wow, could be the first chapter of my next novel….
As Frank Zappa inscribed inside his album covers: “Don’t forget to vote.”
He also asked the question “who are the brain police?”
I find it hard to believe that CACA advocates actually believe that falling CO2 caused Oligocene glaciation rather than the isolation of Antarctica by deep channels beneath the Southern Ocean, & that GHG levels falling farther caused NH glaciations in the Pleistocene, instead of the interruption of north equatorial currents by the closure of the Central American Seaway. CO2 levels are an effect of colder climate, not the main cause.
They are an effect of warm climate as well, and that is mostly all they are
Like messiah, like son. He is a chip off the interpretee’s block.
OMG what if we throttle CO2 back too much?! We’ll all freeze to death or have to get used to eating frozen fish as a staple. But not to worry, the IPCC will create global taxes that will penalize people if they do not burn enough fossile fuels – it’ll defrost the climate and boost the economy…
That’s my climate interpretation, which is worth the same 2 cents as the Gaius Publius interpretation. It would be an unfortunate financial injustice if he was paid more than 2 cents for his interpretation.
Hey! I like this argument: the reason the planet is getting colder is that the Global Warming activists have already throttled CO2 back too much, and everybody needs to create more or the planet will freeze to death!
Of course it’s nonsense, but how on earth do they argue against it? Say the earth isn’t cooling? That’s a hard sell in recent years. Say that CO2 doesn’t Impact temperature? That will never happen or it’s game over. Off hand I can’t think of a counter-argument that they can use without abandoning their current position.
As I say, I don’t believe it for a minute but it sure is going to make it fun discussing this with my green friends.
Hunter-gatherers?
I see Michael Mann’s knowledge of pre-history is as bad as his knowledge of climate “science”.
If the CO2 was higher and temperature was a few degrees higher then we would have bumper crops (faster growing, longer growing seasons, etc.), why would we become hunter-gatherers when farming would be much easier?
Oh my, I smell a new book coming from the Mann. “Co2 apocalypse” maybe?
Reminiscent of “Day of the Triffids”!
I just find it ironic that such a “wanna be” tryant is interviewed on a site with such a name. LOL
Mann is a prime example of why i have ZERO respect for “credentials” the person is either 100% dishonest or simply stupid…….either way his credentials show colleges GIVE them away and they say nothing about the actual education the person has.
Actually, colleges SELL credentials that only certify knowledge. We confuse knowledge with wisdom in our society and the former without the latter is dangerous. They also can’t predict if this knowledge will be used to help or harm society. Some people use their intellect to deceive others of lesser insight but you can only fool some of the people some of the time…
I disagree. People BUY credentials from colleges after proving they can regurgitate the information given to them. This in no way certifies that the student has actually obtained “knowledge” of any quality. No one I know in my society confuses information with knowledge, or knowledge with wisdom. In my society we try to teach our children wisdom so that they can tell when others attempt to help or harm society with whatever they might be peddling as knowledge.
Yes Bill, but how do you feel about HATS? That’s really what is important here…mental headwear. Feudal Fedoras? Statistical Stetsons? Scientific Sombreros?
A ban on fossil fuel will turn our populations into hunter-gatherers.
That is the entire idea behind UN Agenda 21.
A doctrine sprouted from the brain of criminals, cheats, freeloaders and wannabe totalitarians.
So true. But, who will stop them?
Well informed hunter-gatherers who will eat their guts.
Gaius,
You sound like a far left liberal, overly emotional, not very scientific, easily swayed, exceedingly biased, young dreamer that ‘professionally writes’ for a small audience of similar psyches about all the capitalist disasters that are behind all the world’s woes of which we have almost zero chance of escaping due to all those deniers that oppose your unique brand of worldview and a peculiar, unnatural fixation on a few extra molecules of CO2 that are sure to doom us.
I could be wrong though… I am sipping a good Viognier, watching the beautiful fall colors and smelling the aroma of a barbequing sirloin which could be clouding my judgement.
Climageddonism, like any religion requires mythology. To those of us not of the Climageddonist cult/religion, those myths can seem weird, bizarre, and yes, totally bonkers. Mann is the Harold Camping of Climageddonism.
If the state assumes absolute power in order to fix “climate change” the absolute power will change the entire nature of politics and with no doubt reduce us back to an ancient archaic form of society with all of its attendant evils.
Interpret that, climate whisperer.
Wow. He’s lost his relevance in the debate and will say almost anything to get it back. In another thread, a troll hyping the warmist position spat all over the notion of tree rings reporting temperature. Talk about a LOL moment. Mann has been so debunked, so sidelined, so far out of the lime light, than newbies to the debate don’t even know that the hockey stick was based on tree rings, and scoff at the notion that they could be used as such.
ROFLMAO
That’s classic CAGW cult logic for you.
My favorite is the claim that the MWP and LIA were not global because the warming did not occur everywhere, it only occurred most everywhere. But remember, cold snaps, record snows, and a lack of warming in many places is exactly what we expect with AGW. The contradiction doesn’t even register with the cult.
Ouch! That one has to leave a mark, Mr. Hoffer. You might want to turn in a link to that comment in Tips and Notes. There’s still time for it to make Hump Day Hilarity, Thursday Thigh-Slapper, or Friday Funny.
If I have a moment, I may actually write it up as an article.
Free moments being far and few between, I may not get to it in a timely fashion, so here it be. The sentences in quotes are her quoting someone else. The sentences without quotes are hers. Astounding. As a newcomer to the debate, she dismisses the notion of tree rings as thermometers out of hand. The rest of her diatribe is pure talking points from the warmist side of things. She’s a skeptic and doesn’t know it!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/02/ipcc-prediction-of-severe-weather-increase-based-on-fundamental-error/#comment-1778127
JoNovace November 3, 2014 at 5:27 am
“….trees actually started to show a sharp decline in temperatures…..”
Tree rings don’t show temperature, what is your source for this? Tree ring may correlate with temperature if other factors are removed.
“1960 a period the alarmists are largely basing their AGW hypothesis on the trees actually started to show a sharp decline in temperatures.”
…but we know the temperatures were rising so this is nonsense. This is why tree rings dont “show temperature” as you put it.
Somebody got dropped off the memo circulation list…
Wow! I would have thought that the Malthusian theory was dead. Have these scientists ever heard of technology? In their twisted imaginations we have enough ability and talent to destroy (if it were possible), but not enough ability and talent to be able to overcome any obstacle without their divination.
At least they are more open to the admission that this is about free markets. Watermelons!
Malthus and carrying capacity has little or nothing to do with CAGW. We are burning fossil fuels. That means they will someday decline. That does not mean IPCC is right. And the soft limit shoe that pinches worst by 2050 is food calories. Liquid tranportation fuel is the other. Neither closely tied to CAGW.Study it out. Read my books, check the logic and footnotes, then counter. I may not be right. But bring substance, not religious opinion, to the debate. And heck, I am mostly on your side of the core argument!
rud: Have you never heard of methane hydrate? This will generate plenty of liquid carbon-based fuel, and it is virtually everywhere. It will provide plenty of liquid fuel.Natural gas is already being turned into diesel fuel, although the current low prices mean there is no rush to bring it to market. Given 40 years of development , methane hydrate will do the same.
As for the food calorie pinch by 2050 , this assumes an attempt to distribute all available calories equitably among the world’s population. Sadly, the population growth in many parts of the planet will be self limiting either through starvation, war, or famine. It is unlikely that the first world will be impacted significantly. It has ever been thus and likely always will be so. Unfortunately as we are seeing in Africa with Ebola, our best efforts and intentions cannot save everyone.
Not only is this loon wearing two hats, he must be making them too, the old fashioned way.
I just made a hat for “Pop Culture Trendology” and when I put it on I had a vision of Gore & Mann’s movie becoming a cult film, just like Reefer Madness!
That was a Freudian slip since they know the policy over reach will in fact do that in a push cart nation and world.
Hogwash. CO2 temperature sensitivity is far less than advertised. For every doubling of CO2 concentration we can expect a 0.2C temperature increase over ocean thanks to the strong regulatory effect of clouds. Over land we can expect an increase of 0.4 to 2C dependent on the propensities to generate clouds. CO2 also increases vegetation (feed the hungry) and stabilizes the environment. As I had said:
What then is this “Carbon Pollution”?
A sinister, evil collusion?
CO2, it is clean,
Makes for growth, makes it green,
A transfer of wealth, a solution.
Explanation: http://lenbilen.com/2014/02/22/co2-the-life-giving-gas-not-carbon-pollution-a-limerick-and-explanation/
Indoors, CO2 levels can reach several thousand parts per million. Funny how no one notices.
Yeah, do seamen get out of submarines after months at sea wanting to hunt and gather? Actually, probably they do, but it’s the two-legged variety.
Hah! Good one
+1
This isn’t a take off on the old definition of dancing being a navel engagement with no loss of seaman – perhaps my spelling is off?
Well, the CO2 count in my house right now is 542 PPM. I’m not hunting and gathering. I’m making reservations.
self-destructive ego
“So the frog took a deep breath, and blew and blew and blew, and swelled and swelled and swelled, at this moment he burst.”
This guy lectures students who’s parent paid money to the University?
Its not the CO2 level that will turn us into hunters & gatherers, (what are left of us), but the economic chaos caused by attempted mitigation. Any even casual economist will agree that we are setting up to destroy our economies.
Did I read that the UK is expecting power outages this winter? With economic collapse caused by artificially induced energy price rises, we will experience food shortages next. And I am not talking about third world countries!
Mann should study a little economics, that is if he is sane enough to study anything!
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
Mann is delusional!
I like to think of myself as a reality interpreter.
Here is what I have interpreted.
Rising CO2 has increased global temperatures imperceptibly. Most of the effects on life have been beneficial. We can probably expect another imperceptible rise in global temperature over the next 100 years. Most of the effects on life will be beneficial.
I went and bought a space heater for my house. I’ve never needed one before and I’ve lived here for 7 years. (well, I needed it last year, but I toughed it out!) So I’m using wood, gas and electric to warm my house this fall. I’m worried about winter. We all got spoiled with all those mild winters (where I live). Our mild little September is officially over. My feet are cold. My hands are cold. My nose is cold. I guess I’m gonna have to boost the thermostat, but I’ll have to pay for that. Please don’t let winter be like last year!
Silk+whatever-wicking-nano skier longjohns, Gary. Kept me warm during a winter at Lake Louise with nothing to heat the cabin but a wood fire and bear skins. (And a warm body in bed.) Japanese socks with toes, and half-hand warmers. And something for the neck. AND, of course, the bloody space heater.
Smells like desperation to me.
I have always wondered what desperation smells like. Apparently it smells just like….crap.
This Michael Mann is still fairly young. He’s going to live long enough to see himself completely discredited. There’s no way out for the likes of him. He’s sunk his cost, his career, his reputation. He will live long enough to see himself ridiculed. The sad news is that I don’t think he’ll even care. Narcissistic men like him never back down. He’ll take his mantra to the grave. Poor soul.
Consider Paul R. Ehrlich. He’s been wrong about pretty much everything since the 1960s and yet he still has his career in academia. Mann has found his niche; he’ll exploit it like Ehrlich.
It’s called tenure.
Or “Dr. Jim Bruce,” the Canadian who co-founded the IPCC with Maurice Strong. Only doctorate I’ve found for the guy is a couple of honorary doctorates; hence, the “Dr.” Probably why he’s ‘Jim Bruce’ as well. No one can catch his credentials.
Correction: “[…] no one can CHECK his credentials.”
Don’t forget this is post normal society. The captain of the Ship of Fools who sailed to Antarctica last mid summer to chronicle the devastation of GW on the sea ice (Dr. Turney of Oz – Is he from the Climate Science Centre of Excellence?) got himself and two rescue ice breakers stuck in the ice – he needed helicopter ferrying and he set back Antarctic researchers a year by tying up their supply ship. Yeah, well he got an award for this debacle! Mann, Glieck the felonious imposter, and others received awards and most of them awarded themselves a Nobel Prize.
Yeah but… the worm is turning. The climate is turning. Mann (and all others) didn’t get their climate nonsense passed in all the proper nations. The climate is gonna change regardless of his squeaking, regardless of his inability to pass CO2 legislation. What will they do then? When the climate goes cooler without all their safeguards? Without all their legislation? Without all their caps? I, of course, am hoping it all goes warmer again very soon, but from my porch – – – things are looking cooler. And that will have to hurt their theories, eh?
35 million yrs bp – most likely when Antartica fully cut off from other continents. No need to call on for CO2 for the main climate driver at that time.
Hansen is on record for stating continental/ocean basin configuration 65 million years bp is not substantially different from present – to that I say …. BS …. Without that assumption, any attempt to validate computerized climate models falls apart.
Panama isthmus closed circa 3.2 my bp. What that did to ocean circulation and global heat distribution is anyone’s guess.
-by Gaius Publius
One of my hats is as a climate interpreter to the interested lay person. I have something of a science background and can read the papers “in the original.
At first I though that this was Mann’s new Stick err Shtick
I was about to challenge his claim — proved erroneous by his bogus science that he ” something of a science background and can read the papers “in the original. ”
I think he either has missed the lessons in arithmetic or possibly integrity of data
The logic here is not that 450ppm Co2 is a problem, rather Humanity is. If we were forced back to hunter-gathers by green stupidity/totalitarianism, life would be nasty, brutish and short. Human population would plummet.
Just what the Greens want.
The hilarious irony being that the survivors will be preppers with guns and good old fashioned know-how. None of those people are Greens.
What the Greens want? They’d best be pumping iron like they do in the joint before that happens. They are a rather tenderfooted bunch and may not stand up well to the muscley hunters and gatherers.
On Mann:
“First, he’s actually good on the politics, better than most. But second, I wanted to get his thoughts regarding next steps. For me the key, core messages are — Stop Now… Zero Carbon “Budget” … Free Market Solutions Won’t Work. He surprised me in agreeing with the third point, and I hope he carries that message to the public going forward. He was already mainly on board on the first two, but I wanted to hear him say so for the record, since I hadn’t encountered his public comment on this. “
As Vaclaw Klaus has said the new Reds are the Greens — why are we surprised
Tune in late morning Alaska Time for ia sense of how the funding for Mann and his cohort is likely to fare in the near future — Mann, et al may be able to experience the life as a hunter gatherer sooner rather than later
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.
Albert Einstein
‘He responds to climate change deniers on his RealClimate blog’!!! I thought he just deletes any posts that challenge his thin-skinned world.
Real Climate = Science Censorship.
What is the difference between these two?
a) The Oracle at Delphi at a place associated with the Apollo myths of Greek Gods?
b) The ‘climate interpreter’ at a blog associated with the Mann myths of Un-Debatable CC Dogma?
Answer: the Oracle at Delphi did not pretend to be a scientist and the Oracle at Delphi arguably made sometimes somewhat believable predictions.
John
Michael Mann, What a guy. Bravely and fearlessly challenging the stubborn frontiers of truth and logic.
“I think 450 ppm CO2 is ultimately a death sentence for civilized humans. Dr. Mann says 405 ppm CO2 … ”
Duh … Hey, maybe they can be encouraged to off themselves if it gets to that level?
I have three items of CO2 monitoring equipment, an AZ7755 portable for quick on-site checks, a CO2 datalogger, and an older desktop meter, now rarely used. It has no data-logging but has a nice alarm to spook the uninformed. All are calibrated to 400 ppm. I tend to check that these are working properly at this time of year, because there are local triggers that make the task a bit more interesting. 450 ppm? Yep. got that last week for several daylight hours. Minor bushfire 2.3km upwind. Outdoor daylight readings around 400-410 early part of the day, increasing to 420+ late afternoon if airflow is off the Coral Sea. It always increases to 420+ after dark when photosynthesis shuts down. Indoors, we run the AC fairly light (to keep the bills down) so 1100 is the norm. Kitchen usually around 1400 unless the toast catches fire. Can’t see how 1000 ppm would be a problem. On the other hand, I might be unusual. I spent the first five years of my life living next door (and downwind of) a large coal-fired gas works. Panoramic view of hell from my bedroom window. “What’s all that yellow stuff Dad?” “That’s sulphur … “.
I was talking to a hunter-gatherer the other day. He is an Indian Chief living west of Edmonton up here in Canada. He said that he has observed the signs, and it will be a very cold winter.
“Why” I asked.
He said “White-man chop lots of wood”
That is about the equivalent of a climate interpreter.
;^D
You live in The Chuk?
Back in the real world, UAH shows a notable warming in October, which is consistent with the rising ocean and air surface temperatures being measured.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2014_v5.png
Good! By golly, wonderful news James! Maybe this winter’s die-off won’t be so terrible as forecast.Hope not. Don’t you?
IOW, the 18-year-plus Mann-o-pause continues, blowing to smithereens the Warmist ideology that our “carbon” is driving climate in any way, shape or form.
An El Nino-like pattern at play. Within 2 years )end 2016,winter 2017), we will be heading down, down, … down…
Only due to a higher solar flux in recent months. Notice the dip in temps during the last solar minimum? We’ll be back down to that and further below it soon enough.
Notable warming in October? Caused by the new time-delay CO2?
The quote is not Dr. Mann’s:
“[ANSWER] Most still think that 350 ppm (parts per million)…
It looks like we’re headed for a IPCC-“safe” 450 ppm CO2 unless we stop. Not safe, IMO; nor in Dr. Mann’s.”
I like to fish and gather, myself.
Free Market Solutions Won’t Work
Right, we must send in the storm troopers and send the deniers out to the CO2 ovens. I’m sorry, you polluted my day with this one Anthony.
For one, you are barking up the wrong tree.
For two, nobody forced this upon you.
Hey Michael Mann, I see that crude oil prices are down to $78.25 per barrel today! If we vote in enough cheap energy advocates, maybe we can afford to hit the road again if gas prices go down (and energy in general gets cheaper), and maybe US industries and businesses can start thriving again, bringing back some real jobs for our out-of-work workers. CO2 is a boon to agriculture and Flora in general – get over it!
Bring on 450.org…
All very good points.
The only problem is that it leaves the politicians out of the equation.
They feel left out, unneeded, over paid, loss of ability to raise funds for re-election, …
The media (mainstream) is gonna have to reevaluate after the crushing defeat that is coming.
Then, when it’s all said and done, we get more of the same from the actors.
Ah, I see:
the quote is from a “climate interpreter”.
I was confusing that with “climate data manipulator”.
My bad.
In the 70’s college critical thinking courses I believe an interview such as this one would have been labeled “pseudo-scientific jargon”
Wait, my Sagan Baloney Detector Just went critical…
Today we just call it pseudo-scientific propaganda. Or crap for short.
The most (in)famous person called Gaius doesn’t exactly have a good reputation.
Searched for “450.org” and got into “Information Superhighway Hell”…
If Mann feels so strongly that carbon emissions must be stopped immediately, do you suppose he would support ceasing ALL funding directed toward climate research and spend it instead on engineering studies of how to capture and bury CO2? Would he put his funding where his mouth is?
&
First Mann claims falsely to own a Nobel Prize, now one of his fan club members claims “He [Mann] responds to climate change deniers on his [Mann’s] RealClimate blog “
LOLROTF
John
&
Corroborated to not be owned by Mann:
– Noble Prize
– RealClimate blog
– exonerations wrt CG1/ CG2 / aspects of the Hockey Stick Papers
– good scriptwriter for his self-serving heroic mythology of himself
Partly corroborated to be owned by Mann:
– litigations supported by legal defense fund money through efforts by UCS
John
http://www.smartvoter.org/2010/06/08/ca/vn/vote/atkins_d/
If my Internet Archeologist (my newest hat) skills are as honed as Gaseous Publicarse’s are, then I think I found him.
He’s got a zillion blogs and twitter accounts, and holy wow…that Virtual blog radio thing has 136 followers! But he’s no scientist. He has a B.A. in Greek and Latin.
Now that you mention it….Cool…
You need to be more specific about what you find “cool”.
Sorry, thought you’d catch my sarcasm.
Sitting around the campfire (burning old dead grass for a few seconds at a time since all the wood was gone), after being skunked for the 30th day in-a-row in hunting with everyone so hungry that they are even the grass …
… now you are a great grandpa telling your great grandchildren about these great things from the distant past called coal and oil that …
… kept us warm, kept a refrigerator box fully stored with 10 days of food all the time for just 8 hours of mild work, entertained with movies every day, let us buy warm coats for 8 hours of work and let us travel in creature comfort at 60 mpg down smooth roads, …
… the frozen starving grandchildren would be very happy with grandpa abandoning those comforts just because some great chief named Mann told him to do so. They would think grandpa was the dumbest person ever to be alive …
… and the great chief Mann was even dumber that that, dumber than the grass.
… after all, it was so cold outside where they lived, that they could not have been this global warming thing in the first place.
There are twelve men/women, good and true, waiting for his message in the District of Columbia.
Going forward, that is.
Contrari,
Sorry to disagree with you, but Hanson is only worth two stars…
Mike
The most clear observation possible from the above is that Dr. Mann is not well regarded, and that this treatment is well earned by him.
Let’s see, what would the approximate added global temperature be from increasing CO2 from 400ppm to 450ppm?: ((5.35 x ln(450/280)) – ((5.35 x ln(400/280))= 0.63 watts/M^2 x 0.32 (Stefan Bolzmann constant) x .4 (negative feedbacks according to Dr. Lindzen’s ECS estimates)= 0.08C…
So, what da Mann is sayin’ is that an increase of approximately 0.08C of global warming is sufficient to completely destroy modern civilization and basically put us back into the Stone Age….
Yeah, right, Mann… sure it will…
Mann is barking mad… For 500+ million of years (Cambrian to Cretaceous), land and sea life THRIVED at CO2 levels ranging from 1000~7000ppm, and somehow the laws of physics, logic and reason suddenly cease to exist, because….. what, warmunists need more CAGW grant funding and governments lust for more power?
Once the CAGW hypothesis crashes and burns, historians will NOT treat this generation well….
The stupid , it burns.
Hunter gatherers?
You mean the sort who form packs to drive politicians over a fiscally responsible cliff and plunder the corpse of the public purse for the vast bounty of ‘research’ funding and speculative technology subsidies and tax boondoggles then dance around campfires fuelled by economic wreckage while spaced out of their hillbilly brains on the scientific theory equivalent of hallucinogens.
Had M. Mann and his co-conspirators NOT manipulated their data, politicized climate research, and completely jumped the shark by calling others “Anti-Science,” and “Deniers,” things may have turned out differently in the “debate.”
But, the debate has been tainted, the science is certainly not “settled,” and the hysteria has proven to be unsupported by reality.
That may happen for large swaths of humanity, if we are forced to subsist on “green” energy.
Those might not be Mann’s words. As it says in the paragraph before the Q&A section that you quoted: –
“2. Virtually Speaking is broadcast with a studio audience in Second Life. A number of questions came in during the broadcast, some of which are worth repeating. All answers are mine. I hope you find these helpful. Again, I just want to put the basics in your brain — no reason to learn more than needed.”
All answers are mine. “mine” refers to Gaius Publius, although the text is a bit messy so I can’t tell for sure. However, certainly not Mann’s words in that paragraph, unless you can find them in the audio interview? If so, best to state that. From the text of the blog post, you are basically stating that these are Mann’s words. And they may well not be.
“Many were increasingly of the opinion that they’d all made a big mistake in coming down from the trees in the first place.”
Still in stiches over that one, and that was way before the idyllic hollowscene. The hollowscene really has little to recommend it except that is an INTERrglacial. Early Hominins probably descended from the trees just about 3.5 mya when it began to seriously chill out and CO2 may have been at roughly current levels.
It should be remembered that the initial Antarctic glaciation about 30mya was a temporary affair with CO2 levels very high and janky, maybe over 550 ppm.
This may actually be a new climate “forcing” that mikee has discovered and and if 450 (a mere 52 away/) forces a hunter gathering lifestyle, perhaps 550 will force us back up the trees?
FTA: “It’s roughly thought that the original ice sheet formations of 35 million years ago, which gave us modern Antarctic, Greenland and Arctic ice, occurred in a cooling environment that crossed below CO2 concentrations in the range of 550-400 ppm or so.”
Higher CO2, colder than today. It’s as if Mann stuck a chicken bone in his goatee, and announced, “I shall go mad”.
I for one am taking out the fake stone logs and gas burner in my home’s fireplace and turning it back into a wood burning fireplace it was meant to be. I’ll be bringing a truckload of mesquite firewood home in December from my ranch in Texas to burn in said fireplace. Can hardly wait for the crackle of a real mesquite wood fire in my fireplace this winter.
I have always been a big fan of Larry Niven, the science fiction writer. In 1991, he released a fun little novel co-written with Jerry Pournelle and Michael Flynn called ‘Fallen Angel’. It takes place in the not to distant future when radical Greens have taken over the governments and triggered the next ice age with their draconian policies. As a new climate crisis skeptic myself, I eagerly read and enjoyed the book, although I thought the ‘bad guys’ were a little to hard to believe.
Not any more.
Reality has become stranger than fiction. Michael Mann and his ilk, are actually more twisted and delusional than the bad guys in that 23 year old novel.
The ironic thing is that the UN and their ultra green human hating cronies want us to abandon technology and return to being hunter-gatherers(being vegans, they will not want to hunt.) Of course, plants just love the higher CO2. What the Green Nazis want is a return to the Stone Age. However, they do not want us to know that the planet only supported around 7 million humans 10,000 years ago. Oh dear, 99.9% of us will be surplus to requirements. I wonder why they never mention the “cost” of abandoning technology.
Folks, that Mann is a bungler. He’s in an absolute no-win-situation. If he admits that he propped up(to say the least) his tree ring saga, they’d kick him out of academia, thus losing his neat sinecure. So he has to carry on with odd stories and warm-mongering of all sort. He hasn’t the guts to admit his manipulations. He is the living example of the old proverb „If you lie, stick to it, come hell or high water.“ Unfortunately, floods are getting fewer, but the alternative seems to be worth talking about.
The Left will turn humans into hunter gatherers just ask the Russians……..or the Chinese.
Lol, spoken with no sense of irony. It is precisely the mitigation policies if implemented to the full extent that would send humans back to hunter gatherers.
“For contrast, the ice ages averaged about 180 ppm CO2 at the bottom, and pre-industrial (pre-1750) concentrations were about 280 ppm CO2. Pre-industrial temperatures were at the bottom of the Holocene (post–ice age) temperature range, so there’s some headroom above that 280 ppm number. How much exactly? No one knows.”
Cherry pick, not? A skeptic might have written about CO2 levels being thousands of ppm in the past. So there’s some headroom above 45 0ppm. Quite a lot actually.
Let’s see if I get this right: In order to calculate the tipping point we need to figure out the ‘real climate sensitivity’ – which is best done when you are near to the tipping point – which you can calculate by…..
Hansen and his pals are rent seeking on every level: Circular arguments, redefinition of terms, control of data, fear mongering and of course a deep seated need for other people’s money. Did Sens. Wirth and Gore have any idea of the disservice they were doing by starting their bit of theater back in 1988?
Prof. Mann is a world class shark jumper already. Perhaps now he is working on a comedy career?
What I wouldn’t give to see that shark slow down just a bit and tip his head back with his mouth open……
As someone who was educated and trained in the hard sciences, it’s just extremely difficult for me to believe that the difference between 3 parts in 10,000 and 5 parts in 10,000 can make that big of a difference in the amount of radiation absorbed and turned to heat. This isn’t like a chemical titration between an acid and base where there’s an immediate tipping point. An even if it were, there’s plenty of other factors that would serve as buffers.
Hunting and gathering mean he has to ditch his platform shoes. Hard to stalk in those.
Assuming CO2 is responsible for 100% of the warming (a really bad assumption, but let’s go with it for the moment), going from 280ppm to 400ppm has caused the earth to warm by about 0.7C. Now Mikey tells us that if we go another 50ppm to 450ppm, civilization is going to end?????
It’s called stop tyranny but says free market solutions aren’t the answer, tyranny is.
My irony meter just fell off the wall.
You know what “free market solutions won’t work” means?
It means: human freedom won’t work. “Free market” is used as a euphemism by statists for YOUR freedom to your own life.
The comprehensive failure of government the world over and its putative democracies will turn the trick long before climate change gets undressed.
200 PPM would make us hunter-gatherers, 100PPM …. and we all die.
“Mann’s ‘climate interpreter’ claims 450 PPM CO2 will turn humans back into ‘hunter-gatherers’
If anyone had doubt that the team wasn’t part of a world-wide group studying and reporting genuine science for human progressive interest and not political motivated pseudoscience environmental agenda, this was it.
CO2 changes in the planets atmosphere naturally are the effect caused by the climate mechanisms equilibrium movement. Cause and effect can not lead to being both the same equal positive feedback’s or the planet would have always been inhabitable. The cause would increase the effect and effect increase the cause in a viscous circle.(the planet has never shown this occur with CO2 always lagging behind temperature) The large increases in CO2 have had very little/ no noticeable influence on climate recently. The alarmists have been trying to trick the public that the previous atmospheric effect of changing climate is more concern than the cause. Just because one variable changes with another doesn’t mean both are proportional in either direction.
It colds outside so we put thicker/more layers of clothes on to keep us warm. Putting these extra layers of clothes on didn’t cause it get cold outside. Putting further layers of clothes on won’t continue it to cool outside either. So why should increasing the effect cause more warming, when the cause was responsible for it it the first place like the example just mentioned? Well it’s a greenhouse gas so some slight warming should be expected, but the biggest mistake is in thinking that changing the effect is bigger than changing the cause. The alarmist have tried to promote this pseudoscience, which has never been shown by the planet Earth.
Adding further 50 ppm CO2 will have a much smaller influence on global temperatures than the increase since the 1860’s. In a way I wish there could be a 150 ppm increase in just 5 years to show that it will make hardly any difference and end once for all this pseudoscience speculation.
“……or the planet would have always been inhabitable”.
Should be uninhabitable.
True. Also, you wouldn’t survive.
This implies that it was warmer in the past than the current temperatures, therefore there is no unprecedented warming!! At least not yet.