Joe Bastardi writes:
Joe D’Aleo and I have noted that one of the analogs showing up is 1976 with the type of ENSO coming on. In fact, with Tom Downs analogs thrown in, for winter, 76-77 got ranked 2nd as of Aug 10. We look each month and update. But that was one heck of a year for Mexican tropical cyclone hits. We were saying back in spring, the interior southwest was going to get wet as this pattern evolved and it has, right in the heart of the perma-drought area and back west. But the September-Oct rain idea was because we have felt the SE pac would be the site of recurring tropical cyclones that can hit Mexico and dump a lot of rain.
The winter went wild that year, we all remember ( the winter of the ice age scare) and for good reason the SST by December was similar to what is forecasted this year warm water off the west coast and the ENSO event.
The CFSV2 for December ( what ups the ante is even more warm water in the ne pac!)
That very warm water off the coast of Mexico forecasted for the winter, is there now
The 1976 season had FOUR HITS on the Mexican coast
We can see the negatives trying to evolve in that area later next week and beyond
The pattern is such that this area will be of concern going forth in Sep. and Oct. So if ( when???) it does occur, the AGW propagandists have been warned.. we are setting it up already to a similar pattern evolution that in the following winter people wound up screaming ice age. We did it with Arthur, so let see if there are a couple of recurves that make headlines, if they take the bait. ( They will, they have no qualms about walking into traps, no matter how foolish)
They scream about storms out in the middle of nowhere, so certainly the trap is set for them if it occurs. It happened before, and there is a good chance its about to happen again.
Its a dirty job, but someone has to do it