Midyear Prognosis For Records in 2014 (Now Includes June Data)

Guest Essay By Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts:

It was my intention to include all June data, however the June anomaly for Hadcrut3 is running really late again. However, Hadcrut3 has been tracking Hadcrut4 very closely, so assuming Hadcrut3 goes up as much in June as Hadcrut4 did, the WoodForTrees Temperature Index (WTI), would be unchanged in June.

Furthermore, the two satellite data for July show basically no change from June. As a result, it would be reasonable to assume that GISS and Hadcrut3 will also show no change or they will cancel each other out.

It is easy to calculate what average anomaly is needed for the rest of the year in order to set a new record. However it is easier than usual at the half way point in the year. One needs to take the average anomaly at the midpoint which is on row 15 of the table. Then one has to subtract this number from the average of the record high year. This number is on row 4 of the table. Then one has to add this to the record anomaly. I have done this for the six data sets I am covering in addition to UAH version 5.6 as well as WTI. WTI is a combination of Hadcrut3, UAH version 5.5, GISS and RSS. UAH and RSS are satellite data that determine temperatures not too far above Earth’s surface. Hadcrut3 and Hadcrut4 and GISS cover surface data on Earth. Hadsst3 covers sea surface temperatures.

For WTI, the average so far is 0.231 when assuming June and July are the same as May. The 1998 record anomaly was 0.351. So the average over the next 5 months needs to be 0.519 or higher to set a record. This number has only been passed once, namely in February of 1998. That means that every monthly record from August to December needs to be broken to set a record. The graphic at the top shows WTI from 1997. The green line shows what WTI must average for the next 5 months to break the 1998 record. It will not be enough to simply reach that line in any given month. And if the August anomaly is below the green line, then the green line moves higher for the four remaining months. I believe the 1998 record for WTI is safe this year.

For UAH version 5.5, the average so far is 0.206. The 1998 record anomaly was 0.419. So the average over the next 6 months needs to be 0.632 or higher to set a record. This number has only been passed twice, namely in February and April of 1998. That means that every monthly record from July to December needs to be broken to set a record. I believe the 1998 record for UAH version 5.5 is safe this year.

For UAH version 5.6, the average so far is 0.242. The 1998 record anomaly was 0.419. So the average over the next 6 months needs to be 0.596 or higher to set a record. This number has only been passed twice, namely in February and April of 1998. That means that every monthly record from July to December needs to be broken to set a record. I believe the 1998 record for UAH version 5.6 is safe this year.

For RSS, the average so far is 0.253. The 1998 record anomaly was 0.550. So the average over the next 6 months needs to be 0.847 or higher to set a record. This number has only been passed once, namely in April of 1998. That means that every monthly record from July to December needs to be broken to set a record. I believe the 1998 record for RSS is safe this year. (RSS Update: The July value is 0.350. So the remaining five months now need to average 0.946 which has never been reached.)

For Hadcrut4, the average so far is 0.534. The 2010 record anomaly was 0.547. So the average over the next 6 months needs to be 0.560 or higher to set a record. This number has been beaten fairly often in the past. As well, it has been passed in each of the last three months. I believe the chances for a Hadcrut4 record this year are 50/50.

For Hadcrut3, the average so far is 0.489 assuming that changes in Hadcrut3 and Hadcrut4 were similar in May and June. The 1998 record anomaly was 0.548. So the average over the next 6 months needs to be 0.607 or higher to set a record. This number has been passed several times in 1998 and on a few other occasions. However since El Nino has fizzled out for now, I do not expect a record in 2014, but I do not believe it can be ruled out completely either.

For Hadsst3, the average so far is 0.420. The 1998 record average anomaly was 0.416. So the average over the next 6 months needs to be 0.412 or higher to set a record. The June anomaly of 0.562 set an all time record for Hadsst3 beating the previous high of 0.526 set in July 1998. With such a high June anomaly, combined with a need for an average of only 0.412, Hadsst3 seems guaranteed to set a record this year. However satellite data for SST seem to tell a different story. See: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/07/2014-global-sst-not-looking-like-a-record-so-far/

For GISS, the average anomaly so far is 0.647. The 2005 record anomaly was 0.659. So the average over the next 6 months needs to be 0.671 or higher to set a record. This number has been beaten fairly often in the past. As well, it has been passed four times this year already. I believe the chances for a GISS record this year are 50/50.

In the parts below, as in the previous posts, we will present you with the latest facts. The information will be presented in three sections and an appendix.

The first section will show for how long there has been no warming on several data sets.

The second section will show for how long there has been no statistically significant warming on several data sets.

The third section will show how 2014 to date compares with 2013 and the warmest years and months on record so far.

The appendix will illustrate sections 1 and 2 in a different way. Graphs and a table will be used to illustrate the data.

Section 1

This analysis uses the latest month for which data is available on WoodForTrees.com (WFT). All of the data on WFT is also available at the specific sources as outlined below. We start with the present date and go to the furthest month in the past where the slope is a least slightly negative. So if the slope from September is 4 x 10^-4 but it is – 4 x 10^-4 from October, we give the time from October so no one can accuse us of being less than honest if we say the slope is flat from a certain month.

On all data sets below, the different times for a slope that is at least very slightly negative ranges from 6 years and 1 month to 17 years and 10 months.

1. For GISS, the slope is flat since November 2001 or 12 years, 8 months. (goes to June)

2. For Hadcrut3, the slope is flat since November 2000 or 13 years, 8 months. (goes to June)

3. For a combination of GISS, Hadcrut3, UAH and RSS, the slope is flat since January 2001 or 13 years, 6 months. (goes to June)

4. For Hadcrut4, the slope is flat since February 2001 or 13 years, 5 months. (goes to June)

5. For Hadsst3, the slope is flat since March 2001 or 13 years, 4 months. (goes to June)

6. For UAH, the slope is flat since June 2008 or 6 years, 1 month. (goes to June using version 5.5)

7. For RSS, the slope is flat since September 1996 or 17 years, 10 months (goes to June).

The next graph shows just the lines to illustrate the above. Think of it as a sideways bar graph where the lengths of the lines indicate the relative times where the slope is 0. In addition, the upward sloping blue line indicates that CO2 has steadily increased over this period.

When two things are plotted as I have done, the left only shows a temperature anomaly.

The actual numbers are meaningless since all slopes are essentially zero. As well, I have offset them so they are evenly spaced. No numbers are given for CO2. Some have asked that the log of the concentration of CO2 be plotted. However WFT does not give this option. The upward sloping CO2 line only shows that while CO2 has been going up over the last 17 years, the temperatures have been flat for varying periods on various data sets.

The next graph shows the above, but this time, the actual plotted points are shown along with the slope lines and the CO2 is omitted.

Section 2

For this analysis, data was retrieved from Nick Stokes’ Trendviewer available on his website <a href=”http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/temperature-trend-viewer.html”. This analysis indicates for how long there has not been statistically significant warming according to Nick’s criteria. Data go to their latest update for each set. In every case, note that the lower error bar is negative so a slope of 0 cannot be ruled out from the month indicated.

On several different data sets, there has been no statistically significant warming for between 16 and 21 years.

The details for several sets are below.

For UAH: Since February 1996: CI from -0.005 to 2.338

For RSS: Since November 1992: CI from -0.007 to 1.853

For Hadcrut4: Since November 1996: CI from -0.003 to 1.184

For Hadsst3: Since June 1994: CI from -0.003 to 1.656

For GISS: Since September 1997: CI from -0.027 to 1.198

Section 3

This section shows data about 2014 and other information in the form of a table. The table shows the six data sources along the top and other places so they should be visible at all times. The sources are UAH, RSS, Hadcrut4, Hadcrut3, Hadsst3, and GISS.

Down the column, are the following:

1. 13ra: This is the final ranking for 2013 on each data set.

2. 13a: Here I give the average anomaly for 2013.

3. year: This indicates the warmest year on record so far for that particular data set. Note that two of the data sets have 2010 as the warmest year and four have 1998 as the warmest year. (At least this was the case before June. However the volatile GISS has now put 2005 ahead of 2010.)

4. ano: This is the average of the monthly anomalies of the warmest year just above.

5.mon: This is the month where that particular data set showed the highest anomaly. The months are identified by the first three letters of the month and the last two numbers of the year. Note that this does not yet include records set so far in 2014 such as Hadsst3 in June.

6. ano: This is the anomaly of the month just above.

7. y/m: This is the longest period of time where the slope is not positive given in years/months. So 16/2 means that for 16 years and 2 months the slope is essentially 0.

8. sig: This the first month for which warming is not statistically significant according to Nick’s criteria. The first three letters of the month are followed by the last two numbers of the year.

9. Jan: This is the January 2014 anomaly for that particular data set.

10.Feb: This is the February 2014 anomaly for that particular data set, etc.

15.ave: This is the average anomaly of all months to date taken by adding all numbers and dividing by the number of months. However if the data set itself gives that average, I may use their number. Sometimes the number in the third decimal place differs slightly, presumably due to all months not having the same number of days.

16.rnk: This is the rank that each particular data set would have if the anomaly above were to remain that way for the rest of the year. It will not, but think of it as an update 30 minutes into a game. Due to different base periods, the rank is more meaningful than the average anomaly.

Sources: UAH, RSS, HadCRU4, HadCRU3, HadSST3, GISS

If you wish to verify all of the latest anomalies, go to the following:

For UAH, version 5.5 was used since that is what WFT used.

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.5.txt

For RSS, see: ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt

For Hadcrut4, see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.2.0.0.monthly_ns_avg.txt

For Hadcrut3, see: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT3-gl.dat

For Hadsst3, see: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadSST3-gl.dat

For GISS, see:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

To see all points since January 2013 in the form of a graph, see the WFT graph below.

As you can see, all lines have been offset so they all start at the same place in January 2014. This makes it easy to compare January 2014 with the latest anomaly.

Appendix

In this part, we are summarizing data for each set separately.

RSS

The slope is flat since September 1996 or 17 years, 10 months. (goes to June)

For RSS: There is no statistically significant warming since November 1992: CI from -0.007 to 1.853.

The RSS average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.253. This would rank it as 7th place if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.55. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.857. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.218 and it is ranked 10th.

UAH

The slope is flat since June 2008 or 6 years, 1 month. (goes to June using version 5.5 according to WFT)

For UAH: There is no statistically significant warming since February 1996: CI from -0.005 to 2.338. (This is using version 5.6 according to Nick’s program.)

The UAH average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.206. This would rank it as 6th place if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.419. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.662. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.197 and it is ranked 7th.

Hadcrut4

The slope is flat since February 2001 or 13 years, 5 months. (goes to June)

For Hadcrut4: There is no statistically significant warming since November 1996: CI from -0.003 to 1.184.

The Hadcrut4 average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.534. This would rank it as 3rd place if it stayed this way. 2010 was the warmest at 0.547. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in January of 2007 when it reached 0.829. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.487 and it is ranked 8th.

Hadcrut3

The slope is flat since November 2000 or 13 years, 8 months. (This goes to June, but this is an estimate, as are the other numbers below.)

The Hadcrut3 average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.489. This would rank it as 2nd place if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.548. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 1998 when it reached 0.756. One has to go back to the 1940s to find the previous time that a Hadcrut3 record was not beaten in 10 years or less. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.457 and it is ranked 6th.

Hadsst3

For Hadsst3, the slope is flat since March 2001 or 13 years and 4 months. (goes to June).

For Hadsst3: There is no statistically significant warming since June 1994: CI from -0.003 to 1.656.

The Hadsst3 average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.420. This would rank it as 1st place if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.416 prior to 2014. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in July of 1998 when it reached 0.526. This is also prior to 2014. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.376 and it is ranked 6th.

GISS

The slope is flat since November 2001 or 12 years, 8 months. (goes to June)

For GISS: There is no statistically significant warming since September 1997: CI from -0.027 to 1.198.

The GISS average anomaly so far for 2014 is 0.65. This would rank it as third place if it stayed this way. 2005 was the warmest at 0.66. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in January of 2007 when it reached 0.93. The anomaly in 2013 was 0.60 and it is ranked 7th.

Conclusion

Trying to figure what is going to happen six months in advance is something like trying to figure out who will win an election when half the votes are counted. Some of the time it is obvious, however surprises can always occur. In a few months from now, the picture for any present close calls should be much clearer.

P.S. UAH July Update:

The July anomaly for version 5.5 was 0.221. As a result, the average for the first seven months is 0.208 and 2014 would rank in 6th place if it stayed this way. The time for a slightly negative slope increases to 6 years and 2 months, from June 2008.

GISS July Update:

The July anomaly was 0.52. As a result, the average for the first seven months is 0.64 and 2014 would rank in 3rd place if it stayed this way. The time for a slightly negative slope decreases to 9 years and 11 months, from September 2004.

Hadsst3 July Update:

The July anomaly was 0.552. As a result, the average for the first seven months is 0.439 and 2014 would rank in 1st place if it stayed this way. The time for a slightly negative slope took a huge hit, decreasing to 5 years and 5 months, from March 2009. However the time for statistically significant warming decreased by 2 months to August 1994, or an even 20 years. (C.I. = -0.014 to 1.666)

RSS July Update:

The July anomaly was 0.350. As a result, the average for the first seven months is 0.267 and 2014 would rank in 6th place if it stayed this way. The time for a slightly negative slope decreased slightly to 17 years and 9 months, from November 1996.

Hadcrut3 is still not in for June! Does anyone know why? Thanks!