From the Icelandic Met Office
It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red. Image follows.
![volcano_status[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/volcano_status1.png)
Webcam image showing either soil/dust being blown into the air by gas venting or ash being ejected.
An interesting link to tracking the eruption:
http://baering.github.io/
Shows earthquakes in a 3D view to see where and when larger quakes have happened in context of event depth, cam view and other data.
My view is this is not ash, that’s dust (OK, remobilized ash), the question is what is doing it.
“Gas venting”
Latest image from the webcam – subterranean dyke was reported 25km long yesterday.
http://i.imgur.com/oDWdE8S.jpg
Climate change in action!
/Sarc
/Snark
I wonder what direction the wind blowing in that pic of ash / gas venting in the main post? Normally Iceland winds prevail toward the east. Large Iceland population centers are to the west or southwest of Bárðarbunga.
John Whitman says:
August 23, 2014 at 9:41 am
I wonder what direction the wind blowing in that pic of ash / gas venting in the main post? Normally Iceland winds prevail toward the east. Large Iceland population centers are to the west or southwest of Bárðarbunga.
—
nullschool shows 11 km/h from 240 degrees (up the central valley) but that’s moving approximately SSE, as far as I can determine.
Winds are south over that part of Iceland. Any plume would get moved east toward Ireland once over the Atlantic.
Winds are south over that part of Iceland. Any plume would get moved east toward Ireland once over the Atlantic.
Unmentionable says:
August 23, 2014 at 9:55 am
– – – – – – –
Unmentionable,
Thanks. If so, then the wind wasn’t carrying the ash/dust/gas in that pic toward the major Iceland population centers to the west or south west.
John
what does it suggest after the breach and you start getting more activity deeper down? Is that a good sign or a bad sign?
Current surface winds
http://en.vedur.is/photos/thattaspa_harmonie_island_10uv/140823_1200_006.gif
From a woman’s point of view, I would say that the contractions are about 2 minutes apart. The question is now, how big is this baby going to be?
Joel O’Bryan says:
August 23, 2014 at 9:57 am
– – – – – – –
Joel O’Bryan,
Thanks.
John
Now this is different, the steady westward march of DYNC has reversed, and like its northern limb, both are now retracing the former path out. With an apparent vertical multi-day oscillation.
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/DYNC_3mrap.png
GSIG is still heading steadily SE
HAFS is heading NE
VONC is heading ESE and sinking slowly
GFUM is almost stationary
Most vertical motions are small.
FergalR says:
August 23, 2014 at 9:38 am
That is not related to the eruption. It’s just a sandstorm.
http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/23/this_is_not_the_eruption/
Wind forecast at 300 mbar for later tonight.
http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_atl_h12_00.gif
live webcam:
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
Thanks Joel.
Light winds from ~240 degrees forecast so why a sudden dust storm heading SSE, just when the quakes started ramping? That’s when it started because I checked the cameras right away at that time and it was not there. A few minutes later it started kicking up. It could be just a dust storm, of course, but it seems very coincidental given the forecast and the fact the western caldera area is now shrouded by it.
From the link I posted above at 10:25am :
“Do not be fooled, this is not a photo of the Dyngjujökull eruption. This is a photo of a small sand storm near the Bardarbunga webcam, some distance away from the site where the eruption is supposed to have occurred.
The eruption took place under a glacier, so no photos have been taken of the eruption, nor has anyone seen the eruption.”
That it, then?
“… A small subglacial eruption
As explained in the update article at two o’clock, seismic data indicates a small lava-eruption under the Dyngjujökull glacier. According to interpretation, magma has come in touch with ice. This has not resulted in flooding yet. However, tourists have been guided to leave the relevant area.
No visible changes were seen when the Icelandic Coast Guard airplane TF-SIF flew over the area this afternoon with representatives from the Civil Protection and experts from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences. Data from radars and web-cameras is being received, showing no signs of changes at the surface. The estimate is that 150-400 meters of ice is above the area. …”
http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2960
A reliable source of comment from a vulcanologist is
http://www.wired.com/category/eruptions/
His latest comment is:
“Big take-home message so far is that the eruption appears to be small and under the ice. If/when it melts through the ice (which Dave McGarvie guesses might take a few hours), we might seem some explosive activity. However, right now, this is not a repeat of Eyjafjallajökull 2010 or Grimsvötn 2011.”
How long until this eruption is used to explain the pause?
Animated wind map here:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-19.25,49.87,640
(original from ren)
Anything is possible says:
August 23, 2014 at 10:41 am
From the link I posted above at 10:25am :
“Do not be fooled, this is not a photo of the Dyngjujökull eruption. This is a photo of a small sand storm near the Bardarbunga webcam, some distance away from the site where the eruption is supposed to have occurred.
The eruption took place under a glacier, so no photos have been taken of the eruption, nor has anyone seen the eruption.”
__
Anything is possible,
Just want you to do something here. Click on the image Anthony posted to expand it and have a close look. For a dust storm (no, not a sand storm, sand is too heavy and falls out too fast), it is extremely selective in where it occurs. Seen plenty of dust storms but not seen one do that.
@Cam –
no need Cam, our Glorious British Broadcasting Communists have proudly shared to the proles that the heat is hiding deep in the oceans and will be back to fry us all in 2025. The chicken bones said so. How convenient.
How do they know it’s “small”? What criteria would make a subglacial eruption “medium-sized” or “large”? Does a “small” eruption automatically become “large” if it lasts long-enough, or is “small” referring to the rate of eruptive output?
A mag 4.0 and mag 4.2 near the surface of the Caldera during last half hour.
Apparently the Iceland Met Office is beginning to have bandwidth issues and are requesting reduced direct linking of images. Can someone please disable their display in this and the earlier post?
“Note up at Volcano Cafe:
And an urgent call: Please keep traffic on IMO sites as low as possible. If you have saved a siginficant webcam or IMO screenshot you can gain good karma by uploading it to image service like tinipic, imgur etc and post a link here. This way the traffic to the important sites can be reduced. Thank you!”
another cool link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoISDUAPNgc&feature=youtu.be
Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum and commented:
According to volcanodiscovery.com, “approximately 8600 years ago, Bárðarbunga produced the largest known lava flow during the past 10,000 years on earth (more than 21 cubic kilometers of volume.”)
Stay Tuned, we may be treated to a world changing experience.
the “experts” are at it already:
22 Aug: UK Express: Nathan Rao: Icelandic volcano could trigger Britain’s coldest winter EVER this year
BRITAIN could freeze in YEARS of super-cold winters and miserable summers if the Bardarbunga volcano erupts, experts have warned.
The British Met Office said the effects of an explosion on Britain’s weather depends on the wind direction in the upper atmosphere.
Spokeswoman Laura Young said: “If the upper winds are north-westerly it will have an effect on our weather.
“If the upper winds are westerly then it won’t.”….
Weathermen say the effect in the UK could be nothing short of catastrophic if an explosion is strong enough…
Dr Nicolas Bellouin, an expert on atmospheric dust clouds at the University of Reading, said: “The current cold snap many of us are experiencing in the UK is due to the fact that at the moment the wind is coming from the north – putting Britain directly in the firing line of any volcanic eruption from Iceland, if it happens in the next few days…
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/502349/Iceland-ash-cloud-could-trigger-freezing-cold-winter-this-year-if-it-erupts
Nag dabbit! I’m supposed to fly to the Netherlands next weekend, returning at the end of September. I really hope 1) the eruption stays small and low and 2) that the airlines have decent back-up plans for eruption-related disruptions this time.
Expert: Likely no eruption yet – RUV
23.08.2014 20:24,
“The most likely scenario is that an eruption has not begun. This morning we saw a large increase in seismic activity and tremors, so it was perfectly rational to assume that an eruption had begun. A subglacial eruption melts the ice and causes floods. We surveyed the glacier for three hours today. I can of course not assert that nothing has happened, but it is clear that there are no signs of abnormal melting or other signs that normally appear during a subglacial eruption. It is therefore likely that the magma has not reached the surface yet – regardless of what will happen later in this process, because this is a fairly large event and those who delay to give timely warnings can carry a large responsibility. Therefore, it was considered proper to be careful today but when more information comes in, the most likely conclusion is that an eruption has not begun, whatever happens later in this event,“ said Magnus this evening on RUV television newscast. ”
http://www.ruv.is/frett/expert-likely-no-eruption-yet
I feel sorry for the old thing! This poor old honker just can’t get it up anymore.
Or I should say, like it used to. All us old goats get to that point some day.
This event in Kverkfjöll (not Bárðarbunga) to-day was probably not an eruption.
This story, by the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service (RUV), was updated on 23 August 2014, at 20:20 GMT / UT.
http://www.ruv.is/frett/small-eruption-believed-to-have-started
>>>Expert: Likely no eruption yet<<<
Geoscientists in Iceland seem to be of differing opinion regarding the small eruption that is believed to have taken place today. The Iceland Met Office said today that an eruption had likely taken place, but a professor of geophysics at University of Iceland sees no signs of an eruption.
A group of scientists surveyed the glacier today from the air, aboard a surveillance plane from the Icelandic Coastguard. After the flight, Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson, professor of geophysics at University of Iceland, was interviewed at RUV.
„The most likely scenario is that an eruption has not begun. This morning we saw a large increase in seismic activity and tremors, so it was perfectly rational to assume that an eruption had begun. A subglacial eruption melts the ice and causes floods. We surveyed the glacier for three hours today. I can of course not assert that nothing has happened, but it is clear that there are no signs of abnormal melting or other signs that normally appear during a subglacial eruption. It is therefore likely that the magma has not reached the surface yet – regardless of what will happen later in this process, because this is a fairly large event and those who delay to give timely warnings can carry a large responsibility. Therefore, it was considered proper to be careful today but when more information comes in, the most likely conclusion is that an eruption has not begun, whatever happens later in this event,“ said Magnus this evening on RUV television newscast.
Only time can tell
„The most current information I have is that the latest GPS deformation measurement shows that the dyke intrusion is getting wider and getting longer. That means that magma is still moving. Whether that results in an eruption or not, only time can tell. If we look at the Krafla eruptions, which are the most similar eruptions, we had a lot of dyke intrusions there at the beginning, but much smaller volcanic activity. We don´t know if this activity will show a similar pattern, but we have to be prepared. This run-up is positive in a way, because we have had time to prepare. There are no tourists in the area, so it´s positive that the process has not been more rapid. And of course, we all hope that this will end without an eruption and the ensuing damage.“
The dyke intrusion has been forming over the last few days. It is now believed to be around 25 km. long, and about 0,2 – 0,3 cubic kilometers of magma is thought to have entered the intrusion from a magma chamber beneath the Bardarbunga caldera. The intrusion has been propagating towards the north: it´s lenght seems to have increased by several kilometers just today.
At this stage measurements taken are based on a small event. The Jökulsárgljúfur canyon has been closed and evacuation of tourists in that area and around Dettifoss waterfall has started. The situation at this stage does not call for evacuation of habitants in Kelduhverfi, Öxarfjördur and Núpasveit. People in those areas are encouraged to watch news closely and have their mobiles switched on at all times.
This story, by the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service (RUV), was updated on 23 August 2014, at 20.20 GMT.
http://www.ruv.is/frett/small-eruption-believed-to-have-started
Updates in English will be posted at: ruv.is/volcano. Follow us on Twitter @ruvfrettir
Missing sentence:
“Researchers believe that volcanic eruptions will become more common as the climate warms due to green house gasses.”
pat says:
August 23, 2014 at 1:08 pm
the “experts” are at it already:
================================================
There is one significant point to consider as we all watch and kibitz on the next move that nature may take. History shows us what the potential is for a major blast from this region can do to the Northern Hemisphere, as well as the negative impact to the region. In that regard the attention given to this possible event is fully warranted, as opposed to the reasoning of the catastrophic global warming believers.
I hate to tell you folk this, but it is the week-end, and teenagers up there have Viking blood. All these swarms of earthquakes and clouds of dust is just the kids ripping around on four-wheelers.
(I always joke in serious situations.)
“Here come da heap big coldy……..”
My impression is that airlines are far better prepared this time, protocols in place with regulators, there’s even an ash detection system but I don’t know how many airplanes have it yet.
Amazing Iceland has been occupied for over a millennia.
(Recall Vikings were there, from where they discovered Greenland, which they farmed from about 950 to 1350AD. (Sheltered SW corner of Greenland.
That’s during the Medieval Warm Period that climate alarmists deny.)
Interesting observations from playing with the 3D display at :
http://baering.github.io/
If you rotate it so you are looking at the activity from the bottom, there are two vertical stacks of earth quakes. The obvious smaller dense channel, and the big quakes on the left side of the display are from the same view point also almost directly above each other.
Secondly there has been a rash of small shallow quakes at about 1 – 0.5 km or so depth recently if you rotate the display in the proper position, you can see that they form a flat sheet as if a hard cap was unzipping along a horizontal plane in two dimensions just below the surface due to pressure from below.
It is easy to imagine that that arrangement of shallow quakes could mark a horizontal split developing just above the top of the vertical column that has the most seismic activity. Much like a lid on a jar bulging as the jar is heated and getting ready to blow off.
Pure speculation but I thought the 3D relationships were interesting and it would be something to watch as this seismic series plays out and the eruption goes or fails to develop.
English updates at http://www.ruv.is/volcano
Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
If it erupts it will be because of climate change and that will be the reason the year 2014 will be colder than it should have been.
Largest earthquake yet (M 5.3)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000s5s0#summary
The mag 5.3 just recorded was almost directly under the Bárðarbunga caldera, depth (also coincidentally) at 5.3 km.
That 5.3 jolt on a loaded caldera is akin dropping a hot can of pepsi on concrete. Lots of gas encouraged to evolve out and ratcheting up pressures.
About 30 min ago in the 3D plot, there was a 1.6 jolt plotted at a depth of 100 meters over the main column of seismic events.
Not sure what the resolution is for depth but I wonder if that was a surface steam explosion at the ground/glacier interface?
These folks are running forecasts for where the plume of ash goes if it honks.
WSI Aviation Monitoring Bárðarbunga Volcanic Activity Summer 2014
http://www.wsi.com/blog/aviation/wsi-aviation-monitoring-bardarbunga-volcanic-activity-august-2014-2/
http://www.wsi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/simulation-21Aug_C.jpg
Is it just me or is that a plume?
http://vedur2.mogt.is/grimsfjall/webcam/
The two 4.0 and 4.2s from several hours ago have been upgraded to a 4.0 and 4.6 and added to by a 3.8. The relatively ‘tame’ Gjlap eruption in 1996 was triggered by several large 4s followed by a 5.6.
The density of ice is ~1.0 and density of solid basaltic rock is ~2.9, so a 700 m thick ice sheet may sound like a lot of weight and blockage but it’s only a minor equivalent to about 220 m of rock overburden. Plus it has the mechanical fragility of soft glass with a lot more flexibility.
The main obstacle is therefore melt water quenching, not ice. An initial magmatic-phreatic explosion can clear a path in the overburden ice and water in about 2 seconds if it erupts with a serious head of lava fountaining into ice. In which case a Maar crater will form, which is wide steam explosion which are great at clearing all sorts of annoying trifling overburden like a major icesheet.
So it can stay under ice for days, weeks like a simmering Mr, Grumpy, or it can appear in two seconds and roar from a giant crater. All possibilities are open to it as Grimsvotn, did not mess around long in 2011, it exploded through the ice and was in the stratosphere in a few seconds – these two are twins. But Grimsvotn didn’t have as large and rapid a major magma intrusion volume.
And any one who has read the Laki 1783-4 accounts would not be breathing a sigh of relief if it turns out to be a major fissure eruption, least of all the airlines because even without ice and lots of water for added convection, Laki still filled the air of the entire northern hemisphere with super fine solid detritus.
The only upside in this case is there should be so much water released that it would tend to wash a lot of ash out with rain downwind. But don’t forget the accounts of hail mass kills of livestock out of the blue during the much drier 1783 Laki eruption. Also, apparently the ash subsidence generated a major chill in England via sinking ash deflecting the upper atmosphere closer to the ground in the summer and briefly frosted and froze the UK before the sulfur laden dust heat-inversion took over for weeks or months.
The point is a lot of a-typical things can occur which we never thought were natural variables. We can get a re-education here … or not.
Pamela Gray says:
August 23, 2014 at 8:35 pm
Is it just me or is that a plume?
http://vedur2.mogt.is/grimsfjall/webcam/
—
Just an old image of dawn, that camera link went down early yesterday and keeps showing the same old dawn images.
Bárðarbunga Bing,
Bárðarbunga Boom!
Allan MacRae says:
August 23, 2014 at 8:52 pm
=================================
plus 1+, at the least.
The key takeaway from that 5.3 in the caldera western side was it occurred at 10 km depth, i.e. not from roof structure slump.
http://volcanodiscovery.com/bardabunga-earthquakes.html
One other point about that 5.3, it was not due to magma going into the eastern fissure swarm, as the quake occurred on the western margin of the caldera.
The full decay of the high amplitude seismic waves took about 1 minute and the full reverberation took about 2 minutes on the seismic wave log trace. So it’s strongly shaken the whole area and all magma chambers, as well as the surrounding containing rocks, so anything that was ready to move, or engaged in stress or else tensional a-seismic creep, has probably moved quickly due to it.
A new harmonic tremor surge is just beginning in the last few minutes. This is the first increase since the large seismic swarm yesterday.
They just had a 4.9 close to where the 5.3 hit.
Unmentionable says:
August 23, 2014 at 10:16 pm
========================================================
Actually, the 4.9 hit 40 minutes ago so it followed that harmonic surge fairly close.
Upgraded to 5.1 now goldminor
OK, they have reclassified the previous mag 5.3 from 10km depth to 5 km depth, on the western side of the caldera
And the new mag 5.1 is at 6 km depth and on the eastern side of the caldera.
Unmentionable says:
August 23, 2014 at 11:19 pm
===============================================
That combination does not bode well. It makes me think of a rocking back and forth effect on a massive scale.
Coupled with the effects of grand solar minimum of solar cycle 24, this Icelandic eruption will send the big FU to man-made climate changer freaks.
If that magma was not fizzing before it is now, that caldera is having a big day out.
Just to mention that in the prelude to the Gjlap eruption in 1996, a paper I read about that said the Bardabunga area had several low mag 5 level quakes over the preceding decade. I think I posted a link to the paper in the first Bardarbunga thread.
Harmonic tremor is still shooting up, the trace seemed to have plateaued but now is just below yesterday’s transient. More big quakes soon.
Lots of 2+ quakes (15 last 30 min) up and down most of the length of the primary focus of activity over last 30 minutes from over 5km deep to 1.1km deep. Looks like there might be motion up nearly the full length of the column now in fits and starts.
Yeah, the harmonic has not exceeded yesterday’s peak, i.e. the magma is now constricted and pressure rising fast, big quakes coming.
should be, “… has [now] exceeded …”
Wow, quite a storm of mag 2 to 3 quakes in the top half of the fissure complex.
Yep a couple hours ago all the activity was down near 10-12 km depth looks like a slug of material is working its way up to the surface. Now tremors are in the 1.8-4.9 km depth range
You like it live? Look:
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
Indeed, and look at the tremor, it is not shooting up abruptly, it is curving up, just steeply. That is different to all the other instances.
Hmmm a 2.5 shock at only 300 meter depth, we might get to see the show this morning!
Get this, Grimsvotn’s harmonic tremor just jumped up to 85% of its scale!
Plus a new biggest so far mag 3.7 in the base of the fissure.
I wish I knew exactly where in that video view was Bárðarbunga. There is a feature on the horizon that is either a cloud base lowering or steam/smoke coming off the ground near center frame, just about the same time we had a 3.0 shock at 1.1 km depth
Larry, I read a pilot’s comment today about taking air photos of that area and he said Bardarbunga is so big that he can’t capture it all in one photo image without a 24 mm lens. 🙂
All the seismic stations in Iceland are currently rattling with harmonic tremor, indication a large general pressure rise.
It will be an explosion.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/
A slow start, if this is the start of an eruption and this looks increasingly probable, might be a good sign. eruptions beneath ice get water mixed with the magma which turns the eruption more violent producing more ash. We still wait.
Have a look at the steady rise in quake sizes with each day.
http://volcanodiscovery.com/bardabunga-earthquakes.html
Big quake at the top of the San Francisco /Bay Area. It was a 6.0 with a shakemap rated at 9. That is likely the hidden top of the Hayward fault. I notice that some of my family members who live in Marin have all come online after being awakened by this. They live in Marin County some 20 miles away.
The Hayward fault is long overdue and can cause major damage in the East Bay of the SF/Bay Area. It was never known where the top of the fault was past the towns of Martinez and Benicia. I believe that they just found out where the top end lays.
24.8.2014 | 2:31 GMT Morgunblaðið:
>>>5.3 earthquake occurred in the Bárðarbunga<<<
A magnitude 5.3 earthquake occurred in the Bárðarbunga caldera at 5 km depth at 00:09 GMT. The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) says it is the strongest event measured since the onset of the seismic crisis at Bárðarbunga.
The magnitude of the event is already confirmed by the European EMSC network and the GEOFON network of GFZ Potsdam in Germany.
No increased tremor has followed the earthquake.
http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/24/5_3_earthquake_occurred_in_the_bardarbunga/
>>>5.3 magnitude quake – strongest yet<<<
This story, by the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service (RUV), was updated on 24 August 2014, at 02;27 GMT.
A magnitude 5.3 earthquake occurred in the Bárðarbunga caldera at 5 km depth at 00:09 GMT Saturday. It is the strongest event measured since the onset of the seismic crisis at Bárðarbunga. No increased tremor has followed the earthquake. IMO continues to monitor the situation very closely.
The magnitude of the event is already confirmed by the European EMSC network and the GEOFON network of GFZ Potsdam in Germany.
The strongest earthquake yesterday was 4,6. That was the strongest earthquake since Thursday. The 5.3 earthquake is by far the strongest one measured in the current seismic crisis at Bárðarbunga.
As we reported earlier today Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson, a professor of geophysics at University of Iceland, sees no signs of an eruption yesterday. A group of scientists surveyed the glacier yesterday from the air, aboard a surveillance plane from the Icelandic Coastguard. After the flight, Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson, professor of geophysics at University of Iceland, was interviewed at RUV. „The most likely scenario is that an eruption has not begun. This morning we saw a large increase in seismic activity and tremors, so it was perfectly rational to assume that an eruption had begun.
This story, by the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service (RUV), was updated on 24 August 2014, at 02;27 GMT.
http://www.ruv.is/frett/53-magnitude-quake-strongest-yet
Updates in English will be posted at: ruv.is/volcano. Follow us on Twitter @ruvfrettir
New highest mag in fissure mag 4.2 at 11.6 km 99% quality
Agust Bjarnason says:
August 24, 2014 at 4:10 am
=============================================
My goodness, you sure have some tongue twisting words. I went to the page to see how to pronounce Dyngjujokull. My guess at the pronunciation was not even close.
Bardarbunga: Aviation alert downgraded | RÚV
http://www.ruv.is/frett/bardarbunga-aviation-alert-downgraded
Solid updates in English can be found here.
Fréttaknippi: Bárðarbunga in English – mbl.is
http://www.mbl.is/frettir/knippi/3305/
Watching these earthquakes is like listening to my kids in the back seat exchanging “did not”, “did too” fights during the 8 hour drive to the ranch when they were little. Drove me nuts. Just wanted to whack em!!!!
A squirt gun works, that is, until they get it away from you.
This is the graph from yesterday that seemed to indicate that an eruption had started at 12:00 GMT.
http://www.vedur.is/um-vi/frettir/bigimg/2962?ListID=0
Agust Bjarnason says:
August 24, 2014 at 7:51 am
==================
I wouldn’t mind seeing today’s plot when it’s done. It’s easy to see how this system has managed to produce such voluminous eruptions in the past.
The squirt gun thing would not have worked for me because we used those for shotgun seat competitions before the trip started. Once the four of us were locked and loaded we all piled into the car and belted in. Once the shooting commenced, the one that was least wet from the waist up when it was all over got to sit in the shotgun seat up front. However, a fly swatter was pretty good if the fight was overly long.
Hit this one with a squirty gun:
5 km SA Bárðarbungu mag 4.8 29 minutes ago Depth 4.6km Quality 99%
http://www.ruv.is/frett/bardarbunga-aviation-alert-downgraded
The surface graph clearly shows the intrusion of magma laterally away from the caldera, probably relieving a great deal of top pressure as a result. However, if pressure begins to build again you could still have a spectacular blow. For that to occur along the dyke fissure that is now being filled with magma, the pressure would have to be that much greater since there are no columns of magma underneath a lateral fissure when it blows up.
St. Helens lost a great deal of mountain side due to substantial fissures that had weakened that side of the mountain, so when it blew its top off, you ended up with a lopsided scar. Bardarbunga is not a mountain as much as it is a very large sloping hill, but it still makes a great topic.
In the usual case an eruption almost always finds it easier travel up and erupt pimple-like. And that’s mostly how it is and has been in Iceland since about 1875. It’s how it was with Gjlap in 1996, and Grimsvotn in 2011.
But this time the terrain is playing its joker card. It is a geologically ‘fast’-spreading rift center, and it’s currently actively extending the crust (with ease) as the magma rises, so there is no pimple. The crust is accommodating the intrusion and it’s proving to be surprisingly riddled with old cavities, chambers and fissure conduits.
So it’s easier to travel horizontally and fill with magma, and according the IMO this is an enormous magma plume. It itself is what’s forcing the crust to open for it.
So no pimples, just stretch marks. This system is finally demonstrating the very mechanism that allowed this volcano to product the largest known lava flow in 10,000 yrs, which was a mere 21 km cubed.
So it would be a mistake to think this will just be another pimple somewhere. It still can be, or else a series of them over time.
But it can also become a deep, long profusely emitting gash, right through the crust, which bleeds out for six months, or much more.
It is doing the very thing that can potentially produce that. The dike/fissure network magma that is opening is now headed in the direction of another huge caldera what vulcanologist in 2010 reported was getting set for another eruptive phase.
This could be a part of the same plume, because we now have a few distinct sites of separate but clearly connected magma intrusions, through the whole crustal depth, that are overall around 50 km apart, but interacting.
The more it does this the more dangerous it becomes. The caldera it is now building in the direction of erupted in 1875 and that eruption lead to a mass exodus of people from Iceland.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Askja
I presume also that the longer it continues to extrude magma out into the near surface fissures the more hot magma rising up the path to the surface will re-melt and open up the throat of the volcano so that once the plug pops and major flow begins the path to the surface will get progressively easier to traverse and peak flow potential will increase the longer this behavior continues.
Probably a duplicate link posting. The comments section seems to be the most up to date info I could find.
Tom
oops.
http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardabunga-eruption-has-started-maybe-not/
I must have put an extra spoonful of D umb a ** in my coffee this AM>
Today’s addition to the Bardarbunga renovation:
http://shrani.si/f/3O/ef/48IQtoaz/brez-naslova.png
It’s only about 10 km long and headed directly for another caldera, full of water, that has also been showing signs of pre eruption re-awakening, for the past five years. It probably just wants to say hi.
Hi KaBOOOM I am Lava fountain!
Hi Lava Fountain, would you like a steam explosion?
Bárðarbunga on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hashtag/bardarbunga #bardarbunga
Icelandic Met Office on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Vedurstofan?fref=nf
What will happen next and will people be able to fly on Wednesday and the eruption will only come out if the ice melts
Unmentionable says:
August 24, 2014 at 9:20 am
“The more it does this the more dangerous it becomes. The caldera it is now building in the direction of erupted in 1875 and that eruption lead to a mass exodus of people from Iceland. ”
Yep… Global Cooling
This is so cool to watch. Apparently there are signs that the volcano is subsiding (aka sinking) due to extrusion of material away from the caldera northward into the dyke. It’s an explosion all right, but more like a good BM than projectile throw up. Such a baby.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947
d*ke
lol!!!
USGS shows another 5.3 tremor 108km WNW of Hofn, Iceland 2014-08-24 16:39:13 UTC-04:00 (i.e. 2039Z) at 6.0 km depth
Us old honkers need to relieve some pressure too. lol
“Larry Ledwick says:
August 24, 2014 at 10:35 am
It probably just wants to say hi.
Hi KaBOOOM I am Lava fountain!
Hi Lava Fountain, would you like a steam explosion?”
I love to go a-wandering,
Along the mountain track,
And as I go, I love to sing,
My lava on my back.
Calderi, Caldera,
Calderi,
Caldera ha ha ha ha ha
Calderi, Caldera,
My lava on my back…
(sorry….)
Ed, amen!
Swarm of 2+ quakes!!!
http://baering.github.io/
We have another volcano waking up????
Trölladyngju has been movin and shakin the past few minutes.
One of my comments is still in moderation after an hour. Most likely due to my farmgirl way of talking. And here I thought it would be fine.
I can’t find a reference to Trölladyngju anywhere have you got a link or a lat/lon for it?
Kistufelli at 0 km down 2+ mag 30 minutes ago. As in right on the surface.
Larry, it is on the continually updated list of quakes. You can scroll through the last 48 hours of quakes in the area.
http://baering.github.io/
It seems to me that the earthquakes are tending stronger over time. Which seems to me to be an indication of increasing pressure and stress that when released, results in a bigger tremor.
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/grf.gif
Interesting read on the volcano and its potential.
http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/
The pattern has obviously changed in the last 30 hours or so, not sure if that is an important indicator of a basic change in what is going on. As you mentioned it could be just changes in the pressures and flow. As I mentioned above, as the flow continues is should open up the channel of flow by surface melting of the path and clean up rough edges that resist the flow. If true the longer this goes on the capable it is of large flows of lava.
The key as far as any sort of climate impact (if it erupts) will be it’s interaction with the ice. Basaltic lavas in general don’t create large ash clouds that would go into the stratosphere (like andesitic volcanoes can do). The basaltic lava has to interact with the ice to create phreatic explosions to accomplish the same thing. Looking at the maps of EQ activity & the position of the activity wrt to the edge of the ice, it would appear there is a chance it could go either way – either under the ice or outside of the ice …. time will tell.
As a geologist, this is fascinating to follow as it develops. Thanks for all the commenters with current activity links . Keep it coming !
Hopefully the dyke will not extend further north and reach Askja as some people are suggesting on here.
If that goes with any considerable force the Europe may be facing a harsh volcanic winter. The last time there was a major eruption at Askja in 1875 snow fell in the UK until may the following year.
“1875-76: Amazingly snowy winter for the UK, especially the South East early on, the first week of December dumped 1-2ft in some places, worst in the South East. March of this month had many snowstorms, and April recorded nearly 2ft of snow in the Midlands! Snowfall was recorded (on a notable scale), in November, December, January, February, March, April, and May! I would regard this winter as very snowy.”
The maps suggest that the dyke is still forcing its way north, we could do with Bárðarbunga blowing and relieving some of the pressure.
http://www.vedur.is/skjalftar-og-eldgos/jardskjalftar/vatnajokull/#view=map
“The last time there was a major eruption at Askja in 1875 snow fell in the UK until may the following year.”
I remember snow in May in the UK back in the late 80s or early 90s. 1980s or 1990s, that is.
Earthquakes in 3D :
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2948
You can see how they are propagating north with time but also see how they are not moving towards the surface with time.
“I remember snow in May in the UK back in the late 80s or early 90s. 1980s or 1990s, that is.”
Thanks for your input i will make sure your assessment is sent off to be recorded in the history of British winters!
Interestingly the central England temperature record shows that the average annual temperature in 10 years prior to the 1875 eruption averages at 9.42C whereas the 10 years post eruption average 8.99C so there could be a decade of effects on European temperatures from a similar eruption.
Jeff L says:
August 24, 2014 at 6:48 pm
The key as far as any sort of climate impact (if it erupts) will be it’s interaction with the ice. Basaltic lavas in general don’t create large ash clouds that would go into the stratosphere (like andesitic volcanoes can do).
___
I would agree Jeff, except Laki 1783 was not in the ice belt, though certainly many phreatic explosions would have still been produced. Allegedly the peak of the lava fountains rose to 4,600 feet above ground level (what a sight that would be), and the haze went right around the world to low level, and the entire sequence lasted two years, including the eruption thereafter of Grimsvotn, just up the hill, on top of it all (isn’t it interesting how the higher terrain erupted last, the magma did not just flow down to feed the still smoking connected fissure complex).
So you don’t need ice involved to get the global cooling, you just need a huge volume of magma. It doesn’t seem to matter how it erupts for global effects when theirs enough of it coming out. Volume is more the danger than the style it seems. As the explosive phases are short.
I note also that the 1783 eruption was not associated with the bright salmon pink afterglow sunsets for years after, as far as I am aware, so little high SO2 to altitude, or so it seems – but it cooled the earth anyway.
Tim
August 24, 2014 at 7:08 pm
The maps suggest that the dyke is still forcing its way north, we could do with Bárðarbunga blowing and relieving some of the pressure.
__
It coming from vertically below at this point, note the complete lack of feeder quakes linking Bardarbunga to the current dike swarm. Note also the frenetic activity under the dike swarm to depth. If the other end blew I doubt it would change much. This looks like crustal extension controlled on intrusion (look at the CGPS, it’s dilating very easily, no mag 6 and mag 7s to make it dilate). Plus a very large hot melt is siting right under the whole area, and or this is pressure drop at depth melting – not pressure controlled injection from somewhere else horizontally.
I have been looking at Google maps for the surface location of the column of Quakes on the right side of the 3D graph. http://baering.github.io/ That area has no ice on top of it, and looks like a ridge sliding out of a butt crack in the Northern edge of the ice field at Lat 64.850 Long -16.850 being out in the middle of an area with a lot of surface cracks that look like uplift/separation features can be seen at 100 ft scale if you wait for it to load at that resolution.
https://www.google.com/maps/@64.8352026,-16.8459562,7078m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en
There is a strong accelerating extension of the crust, WSW at DYNC, and ESE at GSIG, within the past 24 hours. Easily the strongest extension of the crust so far and between 3 and 4 times faster than the previous impressive rates.
They show the combines extension between the sites equates in the last three, months is 40 cm opening of the crust, mostly within the past week. Around 10 cm of that has occurred in the past 24 hours.
The fissure/dike swarming is directly between them and their net vectors indicate that the northern most end of the current through-crustal magma surge, continues to hinge open the northern end. Given that situation continued relatively rapid, approximate north to NNE dike propagation to continue during today.
This nailed the situation:
“… First let me write one thing, and that is that we are not in Kansas anymore. And with that I mean that we are in totally uncharted country. … What is happening now is really like if you walked down a familiar street and turn a corner and find yourself in the fabled Land of Oz …
… A rifting fissure eruption is when a large part of the fissure swarm “rifts”. Rifting is when a large part of a fissure on Iceland opens up all the way down to the mantle and as that happens a large scale decompression melt starts in the mantle and obscene amounts of magma is formed and pushed upwards filling the void that is created as the tectonic plates move apart.
Bárðarbunga has had more than half of the Icelandic rifting fissure eruptions, and of course the largest. Last time that happened to Bárðarbunga was in 1477 when a fissure opened up at Veidðivötn that extended all the way down to Torfajökull (causing an eruption there) and it also caused a VEI-6 caldera event at Bárðarbunga central volcano. The next time it happened was at the 1783 Skaftár Fires (Lakí) that happened on the Grimsvötn fissure swarm. …”
http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/
There has been a shift in wind movements today. There is a large rotation centered off of Ireland to the west. That has influenced shifts in the wind pattern. It also may have contributed to shifts in the Gulf Stream, which looks like it has dropped south of where it normally runs. Lots of change in the air…http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-9.11,47.84,497
Also worldwide quakes had moderated a bit on the last several days, and then there were two big bangs today. The quake rate is still dropping despite the California 6.0 quake which contributed 6 events to the total for the day. This lower rate should continue through to Tuesday before picking back up. Maybe there will be one main event tomorrow or Tuesday.
Difference from 23rd to 24th August NNE propagation quake trace.
http://i1049.photobucket.com/albums/s396/gogglezon/Aug23rd24th2014Bardabungaswarm_zps19382e2a.jpg
New quake surge is starting since 2:00 PM Iceland time, harmonic is going back up and Mag 2.5s firing of again.
Had a 5.1 shock a little over an hour ago near the main caldera, followed shortly after by several 2+ shocks, so the show is not over.
Looks like rifting is continuing, and there is still potential for development. Unfortunately volcanoes have little understanding of news cycles and human attention spans and it will do what it does when it is ready to do it.
I suspect that long slow development of the fracture complex means there is more potential now than if it had popped at the first opportunity 2 days ago.
http://baering.github.io
still shows a lot of relatively shallow activity so it is not far below the surface, but appears to be easier to extrude into the existing fracture systems and expand it than to pop the top cap. That also means that there is now a large volume of magma just below the surface which could be available for eruption if this thing ever vents and depressurizes the lava so trapped gasses can expand.
Only time will tell on this.
@Unmentionable 8/25 3:48 am
A rifting fissure eruption is when a large part of the fissure swarm “rifts”.
Yes, it looks to me like the system is unzipping a tectonic rift along a 50+ mile system. The NNW earthquake swarm is at all depths. That makes it a couple times longer than depth to mantle.
Not only do I think it will erupt, I think it will erupt for weeks, maybe months. Could it be Iceland’s Kilauea?
@ unmentionable…today,s 24 hour quake count is currently at 28, yesterday was around 38 while prior to that it had been in the low 40s. Watching this regular pattern of change over the last 3+ years is where I drew my conclusion about moon phases and earthquakes. All in all, since I first started paying attention in February of 2011 I would say that the average quake numbers per 24 hour period have trended upwards in that time. When I was first watching, the low numbers would come in around 18 per 24 hour period while the higher count would be around 30. Average was around 24 events per 24 hour period. The only exceptions to that would be when a large quake generated multiple aftershocks, with a very high count for some short period of time. Over the last year+ the high counts regularly hit into the 40+ events per 24 hour period. What has driven the increase in the average number of quakes? I draw these numbers from watching the USGS 2.5 or greater map, which only shows 4.0+ for quakes outside of the US.
Correction to my 11:46am
The
NNWNNE earthquake swarmI’ve been looking at a series of images
from http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/
The vast majority of the Mag 3+ quakes are on the NNE trending “zipper”. They have moved 10 km NNE toward ASKJA in just the past 40 hrs.
Askja eruption next weekend if it keeps progressing northward! my uninformed prediction anyway.
A 5.7 struck 90 minutes ago. That is the biggest yet.
That is odd. The USGS is saying 5.7 while the EMSC has this last quake listed as a 5.0. I have never seen such a large discrepancy between the two.
The flow through the magma network and into the caldera will get enhanced dramatically starting Wednesday into the weekend as tidal forces ramp up.
The nearest marine tide charts are for Hofn about 110 km to the SSE of B-bunga. The tidal forces are shifted to about 75 minutes later at B-bunga.
http://www.windfinder.com/tide/hornafjordur_airport_hofn
That has been confirmed as a 5.7, and that’s bigger than the quake that triggered Gjlap, But this volcano has a hard head it seems.
But every new seismic tremor pulse the quake in the caldera gets a lot more powerful. And some of the older quake levels have been upgraded as well, an earlier 5.0 was taken up to 5.3.
As predicted yesterday, on the trend that the quakes would be significantly bigger today and they are.
Bardarbunga Caldera Mag 5.7 at 6 km depth
Fissure swarm Mag 4.6 at mid depth
30 km deep mag 3.3 west of Bardarbunga
Thank you for your regular updates.
No problem RAC, it’s a bit of fun and I have time at the moment. 🙂
I noticed there was a 3.3 quake that is much deeper than the others at 30.1km. Is this meaningful in the big picture, or something that’s expected?
There has been a nice revision to
http://baering.github.io/
The 3D plot is bigger, but the N-S aspect is squashed compared to E-W.
But below left of the 3D plot is a Map view.
It is an impressive web application done on short notice.
Looks like activity at Askja is increasing, dyke is still pushing northwards.
In the last 30 minutes have had two almost simultaneous 5.2 quakes at different depths 12.9 km and 1.4 km followed by two 11 different shocks > 2.0 in the following 30 minutes. The rifting might have run into a hard spot and cannot continue along its previous path. There was also a 5.3 shock about 3 hours ago.
Might be changing its behavior.
There are two 5+ quakes in the last 3 hours. They are sizing up. The world wide quake rate is still low.
4x 5+ quakes the past day….
This is getting interesting again!!!!
Looks as though the dyke is making a push for Askja some larger quakes happening there now! Bárðarbunga is still seeing some significant quakes but can’t help but feel that these are just from week zones in the Volcano caused by stress of the parting of the rift further north. If the dyke there manages to break through at Aska it could happen very violently, with around 1 cubic km of water in the lake it has the potential to make one hell of a bang.
Many thanks to Baering for this github page makes for very interesting watch as the situation evolves, just glad I’m very far away from it!
http://baering.github.io
Whoa! The plot thickens and the crust thins.
Past 6 hours: Two Mag 5+, and a Mag 4 and one of them is about 5 km east of ASKJA.
A 75 km stretch of over 22 Mag 3-5+ quakes all less than 48 hours.
Snapshot from:
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/
A graphic created by ‘GeoLurking’ to illustrate the scale of what a rift-fissure eruption can look like if we are seeing its precursor. This eruption sequence lasted nine months (Laki 1783).
http://i1049.photobucket.com/albums/s396/gogglezon/Laki1783toScale_zps40300e0a.jpg
The story so far :
http://i1049.photobucket.com/albums/s396/gogglezon/HourbyHourBardarbungaEarthquakeswithMagnitudefor16thAug2014to27thAug2014H7_zps9b3e3297.jpg
(plot by ‘dfm’)
Nothing bigger than a Mag 3 for past 18 hours. Nothing bigger than a Mag 2.5 in the past 10 hours.
What Mag 2+ activity there is is still under the NNE end of the rift.
Intermission?
It’s just a matter of time until a structure gives. When it does it will be a lot of energy. The harmonic is ‘bearing down’ the same way it did when it was stuck for two days last time. Patience, the next round of quakes will be very big.
Subglacial eruption may already have started.
To-day 6 km long cracks were visible on the surface of the glacier N-E of Bárðarbunga, as well as 4 to 6 km long depressions.
No volcanic activity above the surface is however visible.
The Icelandic Civil Protection Coordination Board has a meeting at the moment and scientists will fly over the glacier early to-morrow. Local time now is 22:35 GMT
The location of the cracks is such that the meltwater surge (jökulhlaup) can flow either to the north or south as in the 1996 eruption.
See http://www.ruv.is/volcano
Morgunblaðið | 27.8.2014 | 22:04 GMT
>>>An eruption either happened or is underway<<<
"Data from the Icelandic Met Office indicates that an eruption took place at some point south of Bárðarbunga or is currently underway.
Melting in the glacier was revealed when the Coast Guard aircraft TF-SIF flew over Vatnajökull tonight. The Met Office said that this kind of melting has unlikely been cuased by anything other than an eruption".
http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/27/an_eruption_either_happened_or_is_underway/
Picture from to-day of the glacier’s surface showing the large rifts or cracks.
http://www.mbl.is/tncache/frimg/dimg_cache/e768x432/7/61/761212.jpg
Icelandic Met Office:
“Scientists from IES and IMO on a flight to Vatnajökull tonigth discovered a row of 10-15 m deep cauldrons south of the Bárðarbunga caldera. They form a 6-4 km long line. The cauldrons have been formed as a result of melting, possibly an eruption, uncertain when. Heightened tremor level/volcanic tremor has not been observed on IMO’s seismometers at the moment. The new data are being examined.
Written by a specialist at 27 Aug 22:41 GMT”
http://en.vedur.is/
Some large earthquakes yesterday just after a large high tide on eastern coast. Another similarly large high tide just about to peak, will we see the same pattern?
Also a large depression predicted to pass over iceland early next week, could this provide the stimulus for a large eruption?
http://www.surf-forecast.com/weather_maps/Iceland
Webcam at Kverkfjoll Caldera ~30 km ENE of Bardarbunga – steam with melting snow and ice.
http://cdn.makeagif.com/media/8-28-2014/l63p7w.gif
Kverkfjoll is a twin caldera volcano (so counts as two) that erupts only very rarely. the Camera is facing directly WSW toward Bardarbunga. It is likely this is occurring under the ice over several large areas.
There are now five inter-connected major calderas showing signs of pre eruption seismicity and magma intrusions, and four have had recent visible heating, with ice melt.
Several parallel approximately 10 km SW to NE cracks were imaged in the old lava and ash situated about 15 km south of Askjar caldera, and are visible in high-res imagery from about a 20,000 ft fly-by. Grimsvotn caldera is now known to be directly interconnected via two further fissure networks to Bardarbunga and Kverkfjoll. This fifth caldera is demonstrating abnormal vertical pumping behavior for almost a week. Almost every volcano in the central volcanic icesheet area and a few adjacent centers, noteable Askja caldera, are showing some degree of magma rise and significant earthquake activity signs.
Due to the lack of CGPS station data tracks (GPS geodetic sensors) and concern for the extensional volcanism picture being witnessed and discussed with others, around 20 hours back I personally went hunting for the map positions and names of all other Icelandic CGPS stations,
The result from what was already know from CGPS, plus the three other nearby sites which I identified and retrieved the chart logs from, was then plotted by commenter ‘Irpsit’, at volcano Cafe, and here is the crustal movement vectors which he plotted on a map of the sites, about ten hours ago.
http://s27.postimg.org/98yqr4imr/Sem_T_tulo222.png
There are some errors in the plot but it shows the principle trends sufficiently, namely that the central Iceland crustal-block is currently pulling apart, and has been doing so visibly in the data since about the 22nd of August.
But these vectors are just the first signal of a much more advanced rift divergence, that has already begun to run its course, or already has, at depth. this is the surface catching up to the tensional deformation below.
If you go back in the seismic data for the western Vatnajokull icesheet, there’s a departure point around the 11th of May 2014, where seismicity began to steadily an noticeably rise. I interpret or propose that this was most probably the main phase of tensional divergence beginning within the lower crust, which has only now begun to reach the surface as rifting and heating, due to the material that this accelerated a-seismic extension of the lower crust and asthenosphere produced.
It is clear that this is some level of volcanic rifting.
The overriding question is how wide will it become?
The most northerly three site arrows above are the ones I identified last night, 1 red and 2 cyan. I’ve done this to try and get a better sense of the spreading that may, or may not, have been occurring near Askja Caldera and its fissure zones.
As you can see these site have in about the past 3-days begun to also extend similarly, as they have near to Bardarbunga. So the site are lagging the southern sites, but most probably will continue to extend the crust locally over the coming week, and this allow will promote rifting and forwards propagation in a generally N to NE direction, further opening the current fissure/dike complex as that crust also spreads more, and allows more easy access northwards for the rising magma from below.
i.e. the magma is not coming from Bardarbunga, that concept is clearly wrong on the evidence available.
Askja, will respond even if the fissure does not reach it in diverts, for Askja’s basement is opening up as well and is likely to replicate what is occurring further south and to heat and destabilize, as new material continues to rise into the lower pressure zone opened from below within the lower crust, in that area of highest pull-apart strain near Askja.
Icelandic geophysics experts now acknowledge in an RUV article that data recent reveals some level of rifting and pulling-apart “cleaving” of the central crustal block’s lower crust is currently taking place in a way that may not have occurred for 100 to 200 years.
Seismic activity near the Askja caldera
Fyrst birt: 27.08.2014 13:40, Síðast uppfært: 27.08.2014 15:33
“How much has the land spread? “It´s difficult to say precisely. The intrusion is perhaps 2 – 3 meters wide, but that does not mean that the distance between Egilsstadir and Reykjavik has increased by that; rather the island is being pulled apart, and the landmass on either side is pushed together. But locally, down in the crust, the rock has been cleaved.“
http://www.ruv.is/frett/seismic-activity-near-the-askja-caldera
—
So the question of how big the eruption will be determined via how big the lower crustal cleavage and rifting is.
Amazing! 2-3m wide, 40km long, 20+km deep, filled with 400m m^3 of magma. No wonder they are hoping there will be no eruption, but surely with so much activity it’s only a matter of time.
I think we’re getting to point where we have surface ruptures and no exhalations because the rate of extension still exceeds decomp magma generation and supply, but that’s going to reverse at some point, then magma estimates are going to get real, and unreal.
What I find interesting is other correlations to events that occur during a weakened solar state. That makes me wonder if what we have called grand minima events are more than just a solar event which alters weather patterns. What if there is a geophysical component as well? Something along the lines of a weakened magnetic field which then influences earthquake zones and volcanoes.
Poking around for information to add to a comment, it was easy to see that some events could be connected, such as eruptions at Mt Lassen 1914-1666-900, and on the New Madrid fault 1895-1811/12-1699-1450-900. Volcanoes in Iceland are steady in activity from 1100 and all the way to the present time. Do the larger eruptions fit in with weakened solar activity? Is this part of what determines how deep a grand minimum becomes? Right now it looks like the dominoes are lining up and getting ready to fall into place for the next grand minimum. Even Hawaii is getting in on the act…http://www.nps.gov/havo/planyourvisit/lava2.htm
In the meantime quake activity globally is remaining low. Current EMSC shows 13/24 hour, while the USGS is at 21/24 hour.
In the past 37 hours, only 4 quakes bigger than 3.2+, all in Bardarbunga.
(according to http://baering.github.io/)
But for the past 12 hours, there are four to five Mag 2-3 quakes per hour on the NNE end of the rift. Mostly between latitude 64.7N – 64.9N, longitude 16.95W -16.80W. And Bardarbunga has been quiet for the past 9 hours.
What is the longest erupted fissure in recorded history?
Have two nearby volcanos erupted within days of each other?
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83502 – Landsat 8 captured [ash on snow] activity at five of [Kamchatka’s volcanos] during a single satellite pass on April 14, 2014.
http://io9.com/5980899/breathtaking-photos-of-four-volcanoes-erupting-simultaneously-in-russia
Separated by only 180 kilometers (110 miles), Shiveluch, Bezymianny, Tolbachik, and Kizimen were all erupting simultaneously on January 11, 2013.
@Unmentionalble 6:47 am
because the rate of extension still exceeds decomp magma generation and supply
Please expound on limits to magma generation and supply.
Mount St. Helens proved geologists can still be surprised by nature. Its run-out landslide, a Sturzstrom, reached USGS volcanologist David Johnson at what was thought a safe observation point, 10 km away. It is now called “Johnson Ridge”.
I think we are in for a surprise at Bardarbunga-Askja. The ratio of (length of the rift extension (as illustrated by the earthquake map) to the depth to mantle could be at a scientifically observed high. I could be wrong about that, hence my earlier question about longest recorded fissure. Maybe it will erupt at only one place. Maybe at two ends. Maybe not at all — that would be a surprise!
But remember the solid basalt is more dense than the lava. If an eruption “unzips” the rift along a 50+km length, an unhealthy amount of crustal sag could manifest; the cold rocks “sinking” under the extruded hot lava. A positive feedback in a long fissure eruption: the more lava ejected, the greater weight that must be held up by crustal stiffness. It will push the crust down more, ejecting more lava. It would vastly increase the volumes possible for eruption. The great flood basalts in geologic history were probably a manifestation of repeated eruptions along long fissures with positive feedback. Of course, Iceland itself is one of these great flood basalts.
“…It will push the crust down more, ejecting more lava. …”
If it erupts on top = no change … or very little.
The ‘limit’ to magma production is related to asthenosphere pressure drop and catchment area. areas by square of radius and volume by cube. So larger area dramatically increased potential non-linearly. The width of deep extension and surface rend is the control on production, and that won’t be known until it’s almost over.
Do you know what is the depth of the Moho here is & what the depth of the brittle-ductile transition in the crust is here – just curious as it relates to earthquakes, especially the brittle-ductile transition ( ie is is at the 12 km depth we are seeing most the quakes – if yes, there may be more deformation deeper that is aseismic.
Moho is around 39 km for one source I looked at some days back, another said 46 km, another said 29 km, and some other persons said these are all about right as it varies, and the Moho under the major fissure swarms is around 20 km.
Most of the crust be below Vatnajökull is thicker, ~15 to 16 km. One look at the terrain becomes clear why, and I don’t mean ice. Many quakes have been occurring below 12 km, people are just ignoring them for the most part. And there are several under the fissures to as much as 25 to 30 km lately.
But the best evidence is to just look at the outcrop and terrains as to what goes on there.
Although I haven’t seen research to confirm this , I suspect the brittle-ductile transition zone here would would be shallower than normal due to high high flow. See :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brittle–ductile_transition_zone
Thus the reason the majority of seismicity is above 12km. Could just mean deeper deformation is occurring but is aseismic.
has it started? is that what I’m seeing on the web cam?
http://baering.github.io/
Yup.
Cool….nothing saying it has a the IMO though.
I see that they are calling it a fissure eruption north of Dynjujokull
From: mbl.is
A fissure has started north of Dyngjujökull, in Holuhraun. …..
The crater is believed to be a 1 kilometer long rift bearing NA-SV. No jökulhlaup has been detected; the eruption is not sub-glacial.
At the moment the fissure is estimated to be around 100 meters long. ….
An eruption started in Holuhraun north of Dyngjujökull at around 00:02. Seismic tremor was observed on all seismic stations and the web camera installed in the area by Mila has showed some nice pictures of the eruption. It is a small fissure eruption and at 02:40 AM the activity appears to have decreased.
What Will Become Of Bárðarbunga?
James Ashworth 8/29/14
Past 5 hours: 2 quakes at Mag 4.8 and 5.2 under Bardarbunga
5 quakes between Mag 2.6-3.3 under the active part of the rift.
1 quake near Askja in the high 2’s.