As we mentioned yesterday, Tropical Storm Arthur is likely to become hurricane Arthur and threaten the Outer Banks of North Carolina on the Fourth of July, one of the busiest holidays there. A potential nightmare scenario.
NASA’s Earth Data page is great resource to get hi resolution satellite imagery from. This one shows how Arthur, off the coast of South Florida is becoming more organized.
16:30 UTC Tropical Storm Arthur (01L) off Florida
Source: http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/gallery.cgi
Click image for hi-res version.
Latest from NHC:
WTNT31 KNHC 011745 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED A GUST OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM... MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
So make this a lesson.
What is telling us in the great white fuzz that it is “getting organized”, and what does that phrase mean? Please consider me a weather ignoramus, with a knowledge level enough to read a weather rock.
“more organized =
-more circular in appearance
-distinctive center
-distinctive bands with more uniform radiation patterns
among others.
If this storm becomes a hurricane, that will be clear unambiguous proof of global warming
Have we ever had a hurricane threaten the U.S. in July? Could this be the earliest cane ever to hit the U.S.
motherlandhomelandmainland?This was an interesting perspective.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_01L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html
Robert Wykoff says: …
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So what could possibly happen that alarmists would NOT claim is proof of climate change? Can you name anything?
This one shows how Arthur, off the coast of South Florida is becoming more organized.
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not just yet…still the same since dawn….the LLC is still looking for a home
Robert Wykoff says:
July 1, 2014 at 12:37 pm
If this storm becomes a hurricane, that will be clear unambiguous proof of global warming
Mark Stoval (@MarkStoval) says:
July 1, 2014 at 12:58 pm
If this storm becomes a hurricane, that will be clear unambiguous proof of global warming
Have we ever had a hurricane threaten the U.S. in July? Could this be the earliest cane ever to hit the U.S. motherland homeland mainland?
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Guys? I hope you are being sarcastic. If IIRC the earliest hurricane ever (in a year) was in January in 1938. AGW was really ripping back then. (That was sarcasm in case you could not tell.
“Guys? I hope you are being sarcastic.”
Well I guess I could have put in a tag to show I was being sarcastic, but I thought the “U.S.
motherlandhomelandmainland” part was a dead giveaway. No?This is absolute proof the planet is cooling.
There. It is in print.
Neil says:
July 1, 2014 at 12:26 pm
I have 2 weather rocks. One is well organized granite and the other is unorganized obsidian. At the moment they both claim “sunny.”
As for the “great white fuzz” – an animation would show that there is movement and that is what those with experience “see” in the photo provide by the host (Thanks, A.).
The concept is called cyclogenesis and the Wikipedia page says this “is an umbrella term for several different processes, all of which result in the development of …”
There, in the 3rd line, the word “cyclone” is a link. Go there for more background.
More thrilling climate terror! My word don’t we live in exciting times.
Null earth show it better
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-78.73,29.06,1106
Neil says:
July 1, 2014 at 12:26 pm
“What is telling us in the great white fuzz that it is “getting organized”, and what does that phrase mean? ”
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Fairly simply, the great white fuzz at the southern end of the storm looks like outflow beginning. Tropical storms need upper level outflow to intensify, meaning that the rising air in the center of the forming storm has to be able to be evacuated in order for more air to enter the system at the bottom, which then rises into the outflow, which enables more air to enter the bottom and so on.
As this process continues, other conditions being favorable, the speed of entry winds increases around the center strengthening the storm. Also look for bands of thunderstorms to begin to wrap around the center, a clear sign of strengthening. The big issue with tropical systems is their ability, when conditions are right, to intensify rapidly so while 40 mph winds seem innocent enough you must keep close watch because they can become 80+ mph winds fairly quickly.
You might also note the small, thin line of clouds along the west coast of Florida. That is a line of thunderstorms formed by the sea breeze. They bring welcome cooling to the immediate area underneath and provide needed heavy rains for a short period of time. My plants love it.
Louis says on July 1, 2014 at 1:07 pm:
Robert Wykoff says: …
—
So what could possibly happen that alarmists would NOT claim is proof of climate change? Can you name anything?
= = = = = = =
Climate Change – that’s what
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite_loop.php
Fairly simply, the great white fuzz at the southern end of the storm looks like outflow beginning
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Tom, that’s just coming off the land….the LLC still hasn’t found a home
Animate your radar off Melbourne
Latitude says:
July 1, 2014 at 2:37 pm
“Tom, that’s just coming off the land….the LLC still hasn’t found a home
Animate your radar off Melbourne”
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Yes, reading the latest discussion there is wind shear from the northwest, although that is supposed to weaken very soon.
Jimbo, would you please happen to have a list of hurricane related predictions?
“the earliest hurricane ever (in a year) was in January in 1938. AGW was really ripping back then.”
OMG it’s worse than we thought. AGW can even go back in time, and cause hurricanes in the past. Truly, nothing is safe now.
I could swear Hurricane Agnes hit in June 1972, caused record flooding in Western New York.
I bet Al Gore is on his knees praying for this baby to grow up and cause some damage.
Cyclogenesis is also seen in storms heading westward across the Pacific off the coast of Mexico, but few seem to form typhoons. Is the surface water at that latitude of the Pacific cooler than the same in the Atlantic?
Yes, reading the latest discussion there is wind shear from the northwest, although that is supposed to weaken very soon
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keep your eye on the Melbourne radar….that blob you saw earlier is about to find a home
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MLB
So what could possibly happen that alarmists would NOT claim is proof of climate change? Can you name anything?
I understand there’s another Bigfoot video circulating on the Internet …
This one shows how Arthur, off the coast of South Florida is becoming more organized.
Will it be represented by the Teamsters, then?
Oh wait … I think Florida and the Carolinas are “right to blow” states.
Mark Stoval (@MarkStoval) says:
July 1, 2014 at 12:58 pm
Oh sure, the TS season starts in June, after all. There generally isn’t much activity until mid-August. I’d be quite happy if they moved the start of the season to July. The flurry of news coverage and safety tips that comes with the start of the season is long forgotten before the first storm develops.
This is a pretty good summary of July activity, the 2009 outlook, and a good plot of TS tracks from storms that formed on July 1-15:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/july-hurricane-outlook
Ric Werme says:
July 1, 2014 at 5:53 pm
“Oh sure, the TS season starts in June, after all. There generally isn’t much activity until mid-August. I’d be quite happy if they moved the start of the season to July. The flurry of news coverage and safety tips that comes with the start of the season is long forgotten before the first storm develops.”
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The waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean typically hit the TS threshold of 80F in early June so there is the possibility of tropical storm formation at that time. Most of the early season storms form in this area as the waters of the mid and eastern Atlantic take longer to heat up. Of course weather doesn’t always behave the way we think it will.
Dave says:
July 1, 2014 at 3:59 pm
> I could swear Hurricane Agnes hit in June 1972, caused record flooding in Western New York.
I was in Pittsburgh PA, barrels of whiskey were floating down the Allegheny River. Officials warned people not to get them, citing the risk of pathogens. That was roundly laughed at. The remnants stalled over central PA and produced massive destruction from all the flooding. At the time it was the costliest US tropical cyclone.
After a day of steady rain I was bicycling home and it occurred to me that it might be Agnes, I hadn’t paid much attention since its first landfall. It was probably the next day that my housemates and went to the “point” where three rivers meet to look at the flooding around there.
Like a lot of tropical cyclones, it’s not the wind (Agnes peaked at 85 mph), it’s the flooding. At least Arthur will zip off to the northeast, maybe brushing me and won’t bring much rain. It might make for an interesting day in the Canadian Maritimes.
Tom, your blob found a home…..we have lift off Houston
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MLB
Here’s the water vapor satellite (make sure to refresh it now and again).
http://www.weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif
Glad I don’t have to make a prediction more than 2 hours out 🙂
Well , Tom in Florida (the other Tom who is in Florida, not me) claims a lot of great things for thunderstorms along the sea breeze front. But I say that the lighting that knocked out electricity here for a few second was not fun at all. Also the plants were not too happy with the huge downpour. I don’t think plants really like sea breeze front thunderstorms, yes they need the water, it makes up for the lack of rain from the winter, but in thunderstorms it comes all at once, I think plants would like it more steady. My grass is nice and green though.
I was just looking at earth.nullschool and the cuurent conditions off of the Florida coast. I wanted to get a look at what was going on further up in the Atlantic, and I was somewhat amazed to see a huge rotation surrounding Iceland and a bit of the sea south of Iceland It looks to be around 10 to 12 times larger in area than the Florida circulation. I realize that it is not a hurricane, but it seems unusual…http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-52.15,47.21,671
The main thing to look for as a tropical cyclone starts to get “organized” is the formation of a small, circular eye-like feature at or near the center of the roughly circular mass of clouds. The diameter of the eye is typically — and very approximately — five to ten percent or so of the diameter of the storm’s overall cloud mass. The smaller the eye is compared to the diameter of the cloud mass, the more intense the storm. The further off to the edge the eye is, the more likely the storm is to weaken or reorganize with a new eye closer to the center. Reorganizing storms usually do not increase in intensity and may have their wind speeds drop.
Mark Stoval said
> Have we ever had a hurricane threaten the U.S. in July?
There have been actual Hurricanes MUCH earlier
> Could this be the earliest cane ever to hit the U.S. motherland homeland mainland?
Not even close – try June 4 1966 for starters
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alma_(1966)
Hurricaine Douglas in the Pacific is much more organised.
http://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?eventid=46426&episodeid=15&eventtype=TC
The circular wind pattern, eye and strong high level winds (that tear rising thunderstorm clouds apart so there is no lightning) have been visible for a day.
http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_Lightning_in_Americas_BIG.gif
Arthur still had not organised enough to destroy the lightning storms at 0900 UT.
http://wwlln.net/TOGA_network_global_maps.htm
OMG! There may be rain for the beach houses at Hilton Head on a holiday weekend! The world may as well end! (/sarcoff)
Mark Stoval said
> Have we ever had a hurricane threaten the U.S. in July?
Must not forget Audrey, June 27, 1957. Made landfall as a Cat 4 at 145 mph.
If it is a hurricane when it hits land, how many days will it have been since the last?
“If this storm becomes a hurricane, that will be clear unambiguous proof of global warming”
Also if it doesn’t become a hurricane.
What are the chances Arthur will stay mostly at sea and move north towards New England once it gets done with the Outer Banks of North Carolina?