By PAUL C. “CHIP” KNAPPENBERGER and PATRICK J. MICHAELS
The Obama Administration this week is set to release the latest version of the National Climate Assessment—a report which is supposed to detail the potential impacts that climate change will have on the United States. The report overly focuses on the supposed negative impacts from climate change while largely dismissing or ignoring the positives from climate change.
The bias in the National Climate Assessment (NCA) towards pessimism (which we have previously detailed here) has implications throughout the federal regulatory process because the NCA is cited (either directly or indirectly) as a primary source for the science of climate change for justifying federal regulation aimed towards mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Since the NCA gets it wrong, so does everyone else.
A good example of this can be found in how climate change is effecting the human response during heat waves. The NCA foresees an increasing frequency and magnitude of heat waves leading to growing numbers of heat-related deaths. The leading science suggests just the opposite.
Case [in] point. Last week, we had an article published in the peer-reviewed scientific journal Nature Climate Change that showed how the impacts of extreme heat are often overplayed while the impacts of adaptation to the heat are underplayed. And a new paper has just been published in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives that finds that the risk of dying from heat waves in the U.S. has been on the decline for the past several decades.
By now, this should be rather unsurprising as it has been demonstrated over and over again. Not only in the U.S. but in Europe (and yes, Stockholm) and other major global cities as well.
The idea that human-caused global warming is going to increase heat-related mortality is simply outdated and wrong. In fact, the opposite is more likely the case—that is, a warming climate will decrease the population’s sensitivity to heat events as it induces adaptation. We described it this way in our Nature Climate Change piece:
Some portion of this response [the decline in the risk of dying from heat waves] probably reflects the temporal increase in the frequency of extreme-heat events, an increase that elevates public consciousness and spurs adaptive response. In this manner, climate change itself leads to adaptation.
…Our analysis highlights one of the many often overlooked intricacies of the human response to climate change.
But this information often falls on deaf ears—especially those ears responsible for developing the NCA.
Here is what the Executive Summary of the draft version had to say about heat-related mortality:
Climate change will influence human health in many ways; some existing health threats will intensify, and new health threats will emerge. Some of the key drivers of health impacts include: increasingly frequent and intense extreme heat, which causes heat-related illnesses and deaths and over time, worsens drought and wildfire risks, and intensifies air pollution.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency takes the same outlook (of course since it is based heavily on the National Climate Assessment). The EPA leaned heavily on heat-related mortality as one the “threats” to public health and welfare in its justification for pursuing greenhouse gas emissions restrictions. From the EPA’s Technical Support Document for its greenhouse gas “Endangerment Finding”:
Severe heat waves are projected to intensify in magnitude and duration over the portions of the United States where these events already occur, with potential increases in mortality and morbidity, especially among the elderly, young, and frail. [emphasis in original]
Now compare the Administration’s take with the latest findings on the trend in heat-related mortality across the United States as published by a research team led by Harvard School of Public Health’s Jennifer Bobb. Bobb and colleagues found that the risk of dying from excessive heat events was declining across the U.S. And further, that most of the overall decline was coming from declines in the sensitivity to extreme heat shown by the elderly population (75 and older). In fact, the Bobb team found that the risk in the older population has dropped so far that it is now indistinguishable from the risk to the younger populations. Adaptation is a beautiful thing!
From Bobb et al.:
While heat-related mortality risk for the ≥75 age group was greater than for the <65 group at the beginning of the study period, by 2005 they had converged to similar levels.
In other words, all the EPA’s talk about an increasing threat from heat waves and a growing elderly population combining to negatively impact the public health and welfare has been wrong up to now and almost assuredly will be so into the future as we continually look for ways to avoid dying avoidable deaths (e.g., those from heat waves).
Bobb and colleagues summarize this way:
This study provides strong evidence that acute (e.g., same-day) heat-related mortality risk has declined over time in the US, even in more recent years. This evidence complements findings from US studies using earlier data from the 1960s through mid-1990s on community-specific mortality rates (Davis et al. 2003a; Davis et al. 2003b), as well as European studies that found temporal declines in heat-related mortality risk (Carson et al. 2006; Donaldson et al. 2003; Kysely and Plavcova 2011; Schifano et al. 2012), and supports the hypothesis that the population is continually adapting to heat.
As a note, we (Knappenberger and Michaels) were co-authors on the two Davis et al. studies cited in the above paragraph. Our work, first published more than a decade ago, was some of the first research into the declining trends in heat-related mortality across the U.S.
Clearly we have been saying all this stuff for a long time and even more clearly, the federal government hasn’t been listening for a long time. It is not what they want to hear.
From Cato@Liberty, May 5, 2014
References:
Bobb, J.F., R.D. Peng, M.L. Bell, and F. Dominici, 2014. Heat-related mortality and adaptation in the United States, Environmental Health Perspectives, http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307392
Davis, R.E., P.C. Knappenbergre, P.J. Michaels, and W.M. Novicoff, 2003a, Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives, 111, 1712–1718.
Davis, R.E., P.C. Knappenbergre, P.J. Michaels, and W.M. Novicoff, 2003b, Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities. International Journal of Biometeorology, 47, 166–75.
Knappenberger, P.C., P.J. Michaels, and A.W. Watts, 2014. Adaptation to extreme heat in Stockholm County, Sweden. Nature Climate Change, 4, 302-303.
I live in the tropics. I have good news for you America, if it gets too hot, you can adapt by wearing shorts, turning on the air conditioner, or going for a swim.
What a grand sight, public servants selflessly doing all they can to protect us and our planet. How will we ever repay them? We have met the enemy and he is us. Democracy at it’s best. We elect the natural aristocracy and they use their wisdom to guide us through difficult times. In a very real way we can all take credit for what is about to happen. We have, as a culture, wandered astray, but not for much longer. Where in all of history is a better government to be found than the one we have now?
“WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration is more certain than ever that global warming is changing Americans’ daily lives and will worsen — conclusions that scientists will detail in a massive federal report to be released Tuesday.
Once people thought global warming was more in the future and more of an issue in other parts of the world, but the National Climate Assessment will emphasize how the United States is already paying the multibillion-dollar price for man-made climate change, said study co-author Donald Wuebbles, a climate scientist at the University of Illinois.
“We’re already seeing extreme weather and it’s happening now,” Wuebbles said Monday. “We’re seeing more heat waves, particularly in the West and in the South.”……
The draft came out just as meteorologists calculated that 2012 was the hottest year on record for the United States, but last year was slightly cooler than the 20th century average. And in the time since the draft report was released, the United States has seen lots of extremes…….
The Obama administration will likely use the 840-page report as scientific justification to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gas from the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, gas and oil and to encourage local communities to adapt to changes in the climate. White House counselor John Podesta called it “the most authoritative and comprehensive source of scientific information” on how climate change will hit all parts of the nation and the economy.
“Hundreds of the best climate scientists from across the U.S., not just in the public sector but in the private sector as well, have worked over the last four years to produce this report,” Podesta said in a Monday briefing at the White House. “This assessment is about presenting actionable science.”
I give up…….
I’ve moved from California (cool evenings in summer near the coast, modest warmth in the days – cold wet winters) to Florida (subtropical warm to hot with sometimes humid summers).
What I’ve noticed:
When it is hotter here in summer, there is a large increase in difficulty getting space on the lounge chairs near the pool. Drink prices rise. There is a large influx of folks with English and French accents. (The Germans seem to go to the Islands more…) It takes longer to get a dinner reservation. Outdoor BBQ and / or grilling is common, despite the higher rain risk. Hotel prices spike.
Oh, and more people are wandering around in ill fitting gaudy shirts and not-quite-right shorts, with flip-flop shoes on… Sunglasses recommened to avoid the glare from stark white skin at the pool. Fishing improves and lots of boats are active.
During winter, when it is spectacularly pleasant here, the Europeans reduce dramatically and there is a large influx of Candians and folks with New England and MidWest accents. Mostly older retired folks, but some younger refugees – expecially during holiday breaks. RV Parks fill up, but the hotels are more open. (Except the Christmas – New Years rush). Drink prices drop some, and space at the pool is available. More people are going to movies and chain restaurants. Along with more “old folks” things like shuffleboard and lawn bowling. BBQ / Grilling is not quite as common, despite it being dryer and nicer to cook outdoors then. “Business Casual” is seen along side better fitting shorts and more tucked in shirts. “Sneakers” are seen about as much as flip-flops.
At no time is it particularly unpleasant. Even the summer rains are warm and kind of fun. (The occasional deluge requring a slightly longer stay at the restaurant and / or bar, less pool time. Until it is over an hour later…)
All in all, being in the relatively “hot” subtropics is about as close to heaven as I’ve seen. For anyone in places cooler than Florida, you can only benefit from “global warming”. It’s great.
Now back to your regularly scheduled Government Approved “Paranoia and Fear Sensitivity Training”….
/sarc?
The WWW recently laid off most of its science research staff, to better focus its resources (money) on lobbying and outreach. The same trend is occurring throughout other enviro groups and shedding their science based research activities.
With the Obama EPA, Forest Service, and Fish and Wildlife Service, these enviro groups no longer need peer-reviewed science to defend their positions to attain favorable regulations and rulings. The sue and settle tactics that they collude in, there is completely no need for science based experts to testify in court trials. The EPA science is in fact done in a self-peer reviewed process now in many cases. The scientific fraud is occurring with frightening regularity now from the EPA and FWS.
Thanks, Paul and Patrick. For speaking truth to power.
Common sense is obviously less common as of lately, your words should help change this
what are negative aspects of climate change?
Plenty! You name it CAGW causes it.
What are the positive aspects of CAGW?
not many really. Amongst the better are; that wonderful political control agent FEAR, unlimited taxes and huge salaries for complicit fat cats and climate “scientists”. [sarc]
“Nudge … Nudge … Nudge” Like Cass Sunstein.
Take little bites at a time and never ever give anything back.
Eventually, you win it all.
cn
I watched again the video of Vaclav Klaus speaking at the 2012 Heritage Foundation International Climate Conference. Somebody asked why socialists and communists tend to embrace green issues. Here is what he said:
These people who are fighting for global warming doctrine or are supporting global warming doctrine are really not interested in temperature and climate. They are really interested in organizing the human community according to their ideas and in this respect it is identical to communism. Not similar. Identical.
It seems the National Climate Assessment people are not listening because they are not really interested.
affecting
“I have been extremely disturbed by climate change. Now I notice that around December it gets very cold, then around June it gets very hot. some right wing nuts actually give it names such as “winter, “spring” “summer” and “fall” but I am not buying that nonsense”
“No rational person can deny that Homo Sapiens are destroying the planet. In only a few generations it will be a living hell. No air, no water, no food, no forests, extinct flora and fauna, gone forever. Only a gifted few see this clearly. We must act to save what is left no matter the cost. If that requires us to take command, so be it.” …inner most thoughts of _____________. (fill in blank.)
Off topic, but a great example of how science was altered according to the biases of a key player.
The Questionable Link Between Saturated Fat and Heart Disease
Are butter, cheese and steak really bad for you? The dubious science behind the anti-fat crusade
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303678404579533760760481486
Those familiar with the science behind global warming may likely see the maneuverings, manipulations and pushing of junk science for personal gain by Ancel Benjamin Keys as a precursor to what infects climate science more than a half-century later.
Air conditioning and acclimatization is real. A heatwave in New York in 1910 would have been dealt with very differently than today.
Homo Sapiens did not originate in the Arctic. Stop the scare. Finally, isn’t it ironic that the president’s father comes from Kenya, a country smack on the equator! I have to wonder how his father made it into adulthood.
Here is a person wearing a jacket and leaning next to a sign saying “YOU ARE NOW CROSSING THE EQUATOR” in Kenya.
http://africa.dlora.nl/kenequat.html
BTW: Key White House advisor John Podesta says Congress can’t stop Obama from enacting unilateral global warming-fighting regulations by executive fiat:
http://dailycaller.com/2014/05/05/podesta-congress-cant-stop-obama-on-global-warming/
If you think your vote doesn’t matter, well, this as just as much your fault is it is the fault of those who voted these autocrats into office.
UK excess winter deaths – The Official Data
Adaptation to climate? This is simply not possible. We must act to reduce co2 now!
Cold is good, heat is a well known killer of humans. Open up your windows in mid winter and let the life saver in. Turn OFF your central heating, get off the grid and lower your toxic co2 footprints. Yeah, you first.
We must fight the heat.
For about 4 months of the year I have to live through guaranteed heatwaves, day in day out. 27C up to 40C – humidity low and high. I too know about heatwaves and how to tackle heatwaves. Take it easy, open the windows, draw the curtains, drink water, avoid the sun as much as possible, etc.
I have seen images in the past of bad heatwaves in places like Chicago and people just did not know what to do. Many went outside and started dipping in open fountains etc. Yet in many hotter countries around the world you barely hear a murmur. Many are poorer too and don’t have ACs. Adaptation is sometimes how you tackle heat and not just about ACs. Acclimatization is also very important. I have seen people wearing SUITS in a heatwave I tell you no lie.
Let me emphasize an issue with heatwaves in my neck of the woods. It’s the bloody humidity AND the heat that really gets to you.
I’m increasing at a loss to understand what exactly it is they expect to accomplish with propaganda like the NCA, the IPCC reports and other such faulty reports. There is little doubt that using the NCA and climate alarmism as excuses to shut down coal-fired power plants will most certainly set up the country’s electrical grid for destabilization and eventual blackouts, thus costing the economy countless billions of $$$. The idiocy of expecting wind and solar and other so-called “renewables” to fill in the gaps left by shuttered coal plants only adds to the mystery of what could possibly be happening in the minds of those who are responsible and are promoting such silliness. They only need to look to Germany (and the vice chancellor’s recent comments) for evidence that wind only adds to the electrical grid’s problems with its destabilizing effects for more evidence of how off track they are with this illogical game plan. Where is Spock when you need him?
Meanwhile, with their promise of energy enough for centuries is not millennia, safe, emissions-free and 24/7 reliable fourth generation nuclear power like IFR/PRISM and LFTR sit on the sidelines in relative obscurity instead of being recognized and promoted as the only genuine and rational steps to take towards a post-fossil fuels world, if indeed we as a nation truly want to take those steps. If the climate alarmist/wind and solar/”save the planet” crowd demonstrate anything, it is that they fail to understand what history teaches us. It teaches us that it is only advancements in technology (among other things) that ushers in new eras. When it comes to energy generation, the likes of the aforementioned nuclear technology can hold the promise of that new era if those technologies are indeed capable of what their promoters claim. It is not taxes on CO2, nor CO2 cap-and-trade schemes, nor scaremongering NCA and IPCC reports, and not grossly inferior energy sources like wind and solar that will get the job done.
Ignorance is ultimately not very blissful when it leads you down a road to hell.
Aren’t we always being told the warming is happening near poles? Stop me I’m wrong, but if true, doesn’t that mean the far northern and far southern latitudes are getting warming, not the tropics? While if it was true, melting glaciers could raise sea levels and flood coastlines (which isn’t happening, BTW, but let’s stay focused on this point)… Anyhoo, if the far north and far south warm, won’t those regions become more habitable? Isn’t that a good thing?
In other words, these guys don’t even appear to be acquainted with the theories they are using to scare people. Again, stop me if I’m wrong.
more soylent green! says:
May 5, 2014 at 3:35 pm
The Questionable Link Between Saturated Fat and Heart Disease
Are butter, cheese and steak really bad for you? The dubious science behind the anti-fat crusade
—————-
US casualties in WWII showed little to no sign of heart disease. US casualties in the Korean War showed advanced heart disease even in young men. In those very few years the US epidemic in heart disease was created.
People didn’t suddenly start eating butter, cheese and steaks in WWII. What they started eating was artificial food invented during WWII to deal with shortages. Chief suspect is hydrogenated fat – artificial fat that can sit on the shelf forever without rotting. Human beings were never designed to eat food that doesn’t rot. Digestion is rot. If the food doesn’t rot, then how does the human body break it down safely?
Doesn’t anyone listen to the “experts”? Mikey Mann told us in 2006 that “science” was really all about capitalism anyway. When asked why he and some other scientists refused to release their computer codes when their papers are published he replied-
“Moreover, scientists, like entrepreneurs, corporations, and others engaged in the production of intellectual capital, are competitive, and rightly so. Competition in the marketplace of ideas is what science is all about. We would all like to make our greatest possible contributions to advancing the forefront of our scientific disciplines. Indeed, we are rewarded (in terms of grants, promotions, academic recognition, and do forth) in proportion to the contributions we make in the advancement of science. Asking scientists to release their codes before they have had an opportunity to apply them to a number of potential interesting problems is asking them to sacrifice their competitive advantage. This would be no different than asking Microsoft to release the code for its latest operating system as soon as it reaches the market. Microsoft is not about to do that, and most people would consider a requirement that Microsoft freely dispense its intellectual property — its codes — as antithetical to the principles of a free market. The argument is no different in the case of scientists and their computer codes or other tools of their trade.”
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109hhrg31362/html/CHRG-109hhrg31362.htm
One of the greatest risks to the future of mankind and the earth, is undoubtedly Climate Change Policies.
Great Article – Minor quibble: “Case in point” not Case and point” Keep fighting the good fight!
@E.M. Smith – and then you get the older folks who move down there when they retire! Just ask my mom and her 2 sisters. 😉
Here in Miami there is a 30 degree difference between night and mid-day. Yet they claim we can’t adapt and will go extinct from a 0.2 degree/decade rise. Yea….. don’t think so….
Indeed. Global warming was supposed to make itself felt most in the higher latitudes, in winter and at nights. Yet today we are promised daytime killer heat everywhere! Where is that (still missing) hot spot by the way? Warmists at the Guardian now tell me that the hot spot failed garbage was not necessary after all, just like the northern warming at night in winter I suppose.
Here is some other aspects about our climate that the NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT never tell the American public.
Winter temperatures in United States have been declining now for 17 years at about 1.78F/ decade according to NCDC/NOAA, CLIMATE AT A GLANCE data. In United States, 8 out 12 months of the year are cooling. Winters, spring [2months] and fall are all cooling while only 3 months, namely March, June and July are still warming. ANNUAL US temperatures are declining at (-0.36 F/DECADE) since 1998.
Not only have winters been getting cooler since 1998 in Contiguous US [48 states] and Canada, but winters have been getting colder for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and for the Globe as a whole. .. The winter temperatures in United States were colder in every region except the West and the long term trend since 1998 is that winters are getting colder. Overall, for United States the past winter was the 34th coldest since 1895. The period from January through April will show to be the coldest in US history . North America is experiencing a cold cycle currently like they had 1895-1920 and again 1955-1979 and hence I see this cooler pattern to continue for several decades. Very cold winters bring cooler than normal spring and summer. These events have nothing to do with global warming or man’s influence.
in many hotter countries around the world you barely hear a murmur.
=====================
The local population in countries like Malaysia and Thailand where we lived for many years go around in long pants and long shirts, while we were sweating in shorts and t-shirts.
We lived a year in Papua New Guinea. It is not unusual to see the fishermen dressed in insulated jackets, long pants, hats, gloves and balaclavas while fishing in winter – they find it that cold. Only thing is, 24C / 75F is the coldest it ever gets in winter in PNG. In PNG your average white person can stand outside naked at midnight on the beach on coldest day of the year and still be warm. Yet you don’t find people dying of the heat in PNG.
Mikey Mann told us in 2006 that … This would be no different than asking Microsoft to release the code for its latest operating system
=================
China Gets A Peek At Microsoft Source Code
Government review stems from an agreement which allows China access to the source code for Windows 7 and other software.
http://www.informationweek.com/software/operating-systems/china-gets-a-peek-at-microsoft-source-code/d/d-id/1089702?
Any other AGU members out there?
This was in my e-mail box.
On Tuesday, 6 May, after years of work, the U.S. Global Change Research Program will release its third National Climate Assessment (NCA). That afternoon, at 5:00 P.M. EDT, on a conference call exclusively for AGU members, join National Climate Assessment authors who will take your questions about the report, its findings, and its implications for the U.S. and beyond.
Details about the NCA:
The third NCA is a thorough and comprehensive report that synthesizes and summarizes years of scientific research about climate change and the ways in which all regions and sectors of the U.S. are being, and will continue to be, affected. The NCA provides us with a means of identifying vulnerabilities, assessing risks, and using science to inform our plans for the future. The report was written by 240 authors drawn from academia; local, state, and Federal government; the private sector; and the nonprofit sector.
Details about the Call:
When: Tuesday, 6 May, 5:00-5:30 P.M. EDT
Dial:
U.S. (855) 894-7486
International (970) 315-0555
Conference ID: 41-79-79-64
Joining the Conference:
Please join 10 minutes before the call begins to avoid wait times calling in.
Helpful keypad commands:
*0 – Operator Assistance
*6 – Self Mute/Unmute
2000 Florida Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20009-1277
Another week, another dire climate change report.
I get the feeling that the Obama regime and policy makers who are pushing climate change policies (to enrich foreign countries are our expense) are pummeling the public with these weekly doom-and-gloom stories in order to soften us up to soon to be announced executive actions.
In PNG 27 C at night is doona weather.
Time for the House Republicans to step up to the plate and defund the EPA!
/Mr Lynn
The U.S. midterm elections will be long over when the lights start to go out, next winter. Our creaking electric grid just barely made it through last winter and with even more coal- fired generation stations getting the axe, many who will be unable to heat their homes will perish. What will this government’s rationalization be? “It’s still Bush’s fault”?
It seems to me that if it’s still below freezing, then melting should be an issue. Again, somebody please correct me if I’m wrong.
Either income inequality or the war on women.
What the national climate assessment doesn’t tell you is how much more the government intends to collect in taxes, fees, and higher prices and pass the collections along to the favored wealthy. The second thing not mentioned is that for all of this activity the effect on Earth’s atmospheric temperature, to the nearest whole number, will be Zero.
Alan Robertson says:
May 5, 2014 at 7:04 pm
“. . . Our creaking electric grid just barely made it through last winter and with even more coal- fired generation stations getting the axe, many who will be unable to heat their homes will perish.”
Who is meant by “our; many”?
In the USA some places had very cold temps and price spikes for fuel and electricity, but not all places did. If the electric grid barely made it through (where?) the utilities will better prepare for next year, many places are heated with gas or oil or wood, and “regression toward the mean’ suggests the winter of ’14-15 will be less severe than the past one. Further, as a society’s wealth increases, there are more “friends of the poor” that work hard to keep people from perishing.
The issue of winter energy supply is quite complex. As an example, when it is extremely cold, trains are run with fewer cars and sometimes with distributed power (additional locomotives at intermediate points) – a braking and control issue. But companies are building additional equipment and expect to offer better service next winter. Even Senator Edward Markey (Dem) is in favor of improving infrastructure.
Further reading:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2014/01/10/natural-gas-prices
[bad link. Mod]
Richard I am having the same problem, we experienced the lowest temps ever here on the Northern Tablelands, (NSW) and Jack Frost and his brother snow has been spotted. We are doomed (sarc) Surely it’s not the weather!
Where are human’s soft underbelly?Always vulnerable to attack and control. Money, energy supply, and cold and hot weather, as if we haven’t adapted yet to this inconvenient truth (LOL)
As my grandma would say “The world is going to hell in a hand basket – chitty chatty bang bang”. Succinct and to the point.
There is a general tone to the article I disagree with. It talks of the National reports “projections” of increasing heat waves, and then mentions adoption, almost as if the “predictions have come true.
In climate science they are wrong far more then right. There has been a decrease in tornados and hurricanes. There has been no change in NH snow cover. There has been no increase in droughts. Did they get heat waves right? How does one define and track heat waves. Has there ben a global increase in Heat Waves How is that tracked?
Adoption, beyond common sense, is dependent on the economy and the price of energy. This US administration is doing all possible to lower our ability to adopt. If not now, sooner or later there will be an increase in heat waves, and all else to. It will likely have nothing to do with CAGW; it will likely be just climate. And we will adopt poorly due to insane economic policy.
@ more soylent green! says:
May 5, 2014 at 9:07 pm
“Either income inequality or the war on women.”
MSG – you may be right. Try this for a giggle:
“Income Inequality Institute Will Pay Paul Krugman $25,000 Per Month”
http://gawker.com/income-inequality-institute-will-pay-paul-krugman-25-0-1563245534
John F. Hultquist says:
May 5, 2014 at 9:48 pm
Alan Robertson says:
May 5, 2014 at 7:04 pm
“. . . Our creaking electric grid just barely made it through last winter and with even more coal- fired generation stations getting the axe, many who will be unable to heat their homes will perish.”
Who is meant by “our; many”?
In the USA some places had very cold temps and price spikes for fuel and electricity, but not all places did. If the electric grid barely made it through (where?) the utilities will better prepare for next year, many places are heated with gas or oil or wood, and “regression toward the mean’ suggests the winter of ’14-15 will be less severe than the past one. Further, as a society’s wealth increases, there are more “friends of the poor” that work hard to keep people from perishing.
The issue of winter energy supply is quite complex. As an example, when it is extremely cold, trains are run with fewer cars and sometimes with distributed power (additional locomotives at intermediate points) – a braking and control issue. But companies are building additional equipment and expect to offer better service next winter. Even Senator Edward Markey (Dem) is in favor of improving infrastructure.
________________________________
Hello John,
I was referring to the US electric grid, which was severely tested last winter. According to information in a recent WUWT article, last winter, the grid experienced 8 of 10 of the worst demand peaks and just narrowly missed widespread blackouts. We may hope for milder winters, but will US electric generating capacity and grid- tie improvements increase fast enough via other methods to compensate for the shutdown of many coal- fired generators due to government fiat? What happens when there is a blackout and there is no power available to hundreds of thousands of homes? Many US homes require electric power to operate the home’s heating system, regardless of fuel type. Deaths in Great Britain due to people’s inability to afford to heat their homes have been reported to be in the tens of thousands over the past few years. Has the wealth of the general US population been increasing over the past several years?
ferd berple says:
May 5, 2014 at 4:53 pm
OK, I’ll bite. US casualties in WWII occurred all over the world. In marine services (Navy, Merchant Marine) many of the dead went down with the ship and were unavailable for a autopsy. US logistical services were strained keeping scattered operations supplied with men, equipment and supplies; medical personnel were busy with trying to save the wounded. Many of the dead were buried in the combat theater where they died, and I doubt autopsies were ever performed on most of them.
Total combat+non-combat deaths in WWII were 405,400. Total wounded were 670,850. Deaths as a percentage of total casualties was therefore 38%.
The Korean War was a single theater of operations, with logistical supply through Japan and no hostile navy to interdict shipping. Total combat+non-combat deaths were 36,500; total wounded were 153,300. For the first time wounded were evacuated to hospitals by helicopter. The effects of faster and better trauma care are clear in the deaths as percentage of total casualties: 19%. All (almost all) recovered remains were returned to the US and I suspect a much higher percentage were autopsied.
I claim the autopsy samples between WWII and Korean war are not comparable.
In addition, a good portion of US soldiers in WWII came out of the Depression to one degree or another malnourished. A significant number from rural areas had never seen a toothbrush before entering service; they had to be taught dental hygiene along with marching and small arms. And during the war in some theaters the troops were not far from starving for months at a time because we lacked the means to keep them adequately supplied (Guadalcanal for example, where US Marines survived on capture Japanese supplies).
The US military personnel for the Korean war came from a populace which was much better fed on to begin with and they were much better supplied during the war.
[Also, many Korean War combat troops, Air Force and Navy support troops, and most officers WERE WWII veterans, so an ageK = ageWWII comparison can’t be assumed either. Mod]
Mod.,
I used a text page and the end of my link went to page 2 and got lost;
for the link at May 5, 2014 at 9:48 pm – #comment-1629669
http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2014/01/10/natural-gas-prices-spike/H8d7cjyAbnE8cnNliWzEHN/story.html
Sorry about that. Need to do this more: Here it is.
Eric Worrall says:
May 5, 2014 at 2:20 pm
Well, that is the thing. If the morons at the White House and EPA have their way, coal plants are gone, resulting in reduced generation capacity which means your air conditioner is out. And if they had their way on water, your pool would be empty because they are withholding water (like in California, to farmers) to save some obscure species of blind fish, or shrimp, or somesuch. So just enjoy wearing shorts. Who says you can’t adapt? /sarc
When PBS News Hour came a-knocking with the latest shrieking phantods from the Haunted White House (“We’re not trying to alarm anybody, but…”) I frantically pawed around on the cushions for my remote control mute button, resolved to deny myself another delicious Stephen King spine-tingler. I was surprised a minute later to see the name Chip Knappenberger identifying one of the interviewees and made a mental note to check it out online. Well,here I am. If you read your own thread, perhaps you would be good enough to confirm you were there, because, using their search engine, there is,no record of anyone by that name ever having appeared on the News Hour. Seth Borenstein, yes. John Holder, yep. Other pathological poltergeists predicting pestilence and plagues? You bet.
Seriously, media disappearing acts (of dissenting views on AGW) seem to be getting increasingly heavy-handed.
PNG 27C, yes it would be doona weather, anyway, that’s acclimatization for you. But take heart in Armidale, Northern tablelands NSW, it was minus 2 last night, thank heavens for an electric blanket and thermals. 10 C in the house, (we don’t heat) all sub tropical and tropical bonsai and pot plants are in the house, only the deciduous are still outside in a sheltered but sunny position. When the sun comes out of course.