The big list of failed climate predictions

Wow.. this post is of a quality that I’d expect from spam email. It is extremely poorly sourced. Most entries are completely devoid of context about the range of time these predictions are supposed to occur by, and there are even predictions that specify ranges of years that are still decades away, yet are somehow already considered “failed.”

Phew, that’s quite a list already, and as njsnowfan says there must be a fair few more. I do like the inclusion of a few “global cooling” quotes down the list, just to remind us.
This could easily become another Reference Page …

And just like any faith based religion, AGW cannot be falsified.

Hey Anthony and Sasha,
The failed winter predictions / earlier Springs look very similar to Pierre’s and mine. 😉
See 1 to 60 are identical I think dated 4. April 2013
Climate Science Humiliated…Earlier Model Prognoses Of Warmer Winters Now Today’s Laughingstocks
I gave a sampling in February 2014 here.
Congratulations anyway. 🙂

Number 98: has anyone checked this (partial pun)? There is the Czech physicist Lubos Motl, but he wasn’t born until 1973. I can find no reference for a ‘Lubos Moti’ – note the ‘i’.

Are there any fulfilled prognostications of the AGW proponents? If not, the score 0-107 will look impressive.

Sasha: With all due respect; that ain’t nuthin.
I have 152 seperate entries in my database, with one or more predictions per entry. All told, over 300. Some have 60 predictions on winter alone. (see below)
http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/04/climate-science-humiliated-earlier-model-prognoses-of-warmer-winters-now-todays-laughingstocks/
Some are duplicated, and not all the references are given. I have references for all, but they are in another column.
Both UAE and Hadley researchers said snow would be a rare occurrence.
“Hansen predicted in the late 80s, that :
“”The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.”” Then he said, “”There will be more police cars.”” Why? “”Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”” ”
“San Jose Mercury News (CA) – June 30, 1989
“A senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000……… He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect… “”
A look at Hansen’s 1988 projections.
“From a warmist website, on Hansen’s 1988 projections:

There are two main reasons for Hansen’s warming overestimates:”
Hansen predicted that the 1990-2000 period would see a rise of up to 1 deg F. The next decade would se 2-4 deg F rise.
Predictions on when the arctic will be ice free. Years picked are between 2000 and 2016….
The predictive skill of the Met Office is on the low side, 11 of the last 12 years.
Predictions made on the “permanent drought”. Note that no one said it would never raiin, but many said that the drought was permmanent.
More on the predictions of the “never ending drought” in Oz. Also, an explanation of why even the experts have confused causation. Warm temperatures do not cause drought, but drought causes warmer temperatures.
An update, where the scientist stating that no predictions were made, says that the predictions made were only to the press, so don’t really count.
“Then, talking in repsonse to Katrina: “”We’re in for a rough ride over the next 10 years.”” — Kerry Emanuel, emphasizing that the current increase in hurricanes in the Atlantic is part of a natural cycle. US News & World Report, Aug. 31, 2005
Now, talking about the longest recorded period between major hurricane landfalls, and also includes the next 7 years in the 10 years in the first quote: Kerry Emanuel, a meteorology professor at MIT, said the seven-year gap between major hurricanes in the U.S. is most likely just due to chance. “Seven years is simply far too short to see global warming signals in U.S. landfalling hurricane statistics of any kind,” he said via email”
The IPCC 1990 SPM is the only one that has “predictions”. It predicted warming of 1.5 to 2 deg by 2012, over the pre-industrial value.
“Matthew England said that anyone who says the IPCC projections are over estimates, is lying. It appears he is lying. The IPCC low end estimate of warming from 1990 is higher than current temperatures.
From the IPCC 1990 report:
This will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1° C above the present value by 2025…”
That should mean we would have over 0.6 deg of warming in 2012. At best, using HADCRUT 4, its 0.36, or nearly 1/2 the median estimate.”
2001 15.2.4.1.2.4. Ice Storms
Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/569.htm
1995 IPCC Draft
accompanied in the Northern Hemisphere by a shrinking snow cover in winter.
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/18/world/scientists-say-earth-s-warming-could-set-off-wide-disruptions.html
From the 2007 AR4
Frequently Asked Question 4.1
Is the amount of snow and ice on the earth decreasing?
Yes.
Snow cover is retreating earlier in the spring.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter4.pdf”
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
“This page shows the accuracy of EC seasonal forecasts. As Tim Ball shows on WUWT, the accuracy is about the same as tossing a coin.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/08/wrong-prediction-wrong-science-unless-its-government-climate-science/”
The IPCC forecast in 1995 and 2001, that snow cover would decline.
http://observatory.ph/resources/IPCC/TAR/wg2/569.htm#1524123
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/18/world/scientists-say-earth-s-warming-could-set-off-wide-disruptions.html”
Scientists Viner (CRU), and Parker (Hadley) predicted in 2000 that “children won’t know what snow is”.
The MO just changed its long term projection , and it shows no additional warming 2013-2017, with an average of 0.43 deg C over the 1971-2000 average. This compares to the prediction they made 2 years ago, with average temps of 0.7 deg over the average.
“The Met Office predicted that 1/2 the years 2010-2015 will be hotter than 1998. Fail.
They predicted that 2010 would be hotter than 1998. Fail.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/global-warming”
“Nasa predicted an increase of global temps of 0.15 deg C over the period 2009-2014.
Interestingly, they also predict a slowdown in warming, 2014-2019.”
The MO predicted a BBQ summer in 2009. Fail.
The EA predicted drought until Christmas, in the UK. Instead, it was a record year for rain. Fail.
The MO predicted drier than average for April-May-June. Fail.
Environment Canada (EC) has a site that looks at past predictions and results. Tossing a coin would be as accurate.
“The Met Office, whe they changed the predictions for future temperature, also jigged the past predictions. Note the wite line in both charts. It is, as the text says, indicative of past predictions. In the latest chart, it seems to show that they predicted the downturn in temps in 2005. In the older chart, its obvious they were predicting much higher temps.
While this is due to “”hindcasting””, it does show the accuracy of the models.Also the accuarcy of the descriptions, as the Met should not call them “”previous predictions””, or even “”retorspective forecasts””.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
http://www.webcitation.org/6DWaflh2M”
A list of some of the many failed predictiosn, regarding resources.
“Hansen predicted that droughts would occur in 1 in 3 years by 2030, vs 1 in 20 in the 50s. However, if you look at the NCDC (NOAA) drought index, the 50s were in drought 1 in 2. Also note there is no trend in droughts over the record.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=pmdi&month=11&year=2012&filter=12&state=110&div=0”
Arctic ice free by 2013.
The met office record of predictions in 2007. Every year from 2005(?) to 2012 is lower than predicted.
An expert in forescasting principles (he literally wrote the book), says that global warming forecasts violated 72 of 89 relevant forecasting principles.
This guy predicted arctic ice will be gone by 2013.
Figure 1.4 of the AR5 draft (Ch. 1, page 39) shows that te
mperatures since 1998 have been in the lower end of all projections of the IPCC, and that current temperatures are BELOW projections.
Hansen predicted that the largest sea ice reduction would occur near West Antarctica. In 2013, there was record ice in West Antarctica. In 2012, record ice in the entire Antarctic.
Hansen’s seminal 1988 paper, with his 3 scenarios. For 2012, scenario A and B were over 1 deg C above the long term average. Scenario C was at 0.6 deg C. Global temps have been running under even Scenario C….
“From page 1 of the article:
But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.

Did Oppenheimer state that snow falls would increase in a warming world? No, he waxed nostaligic on something gone. ”
Shepherd, now president of the AMS, predicted that hurricanes would become more intense.
Instead, the hurricane activity in the US, and globally, fell off a cliff, both in numbers and intensity.
The former head of the IPCC and the Met Office predicted 80% less snow for Wales, due to warming.
The BBC and the UCS said that “the winters of our youth are unlikely to return”.
“From Mark Lynas:

. . . snow has become so rare that when it does fall – often just for a few hours – everything grinds to a halt. In early 2003 a ‘mighty’ five-centimetre snowfall in southeast England caused such severe traffic jams that many motorists had to stay in their cars overnight. Today’s kids are missing out . . .

”
Tim and his many failed predictions on Ozzie drought. It should be noted that it was because of warninsg like Flannery’s, that Australia spent billions on de-salination plants that are no longer needed. Nor was that money spent on dams for flood control, as it was thought to be wasted money.
“From TAR, 12.5.6. Drought
… Using a transient simulation with the NCAR CCMO GCM at coarse resolution (R15) (Meehl and Washington, 1996), Kothavala (1999) found for northeastern and southeastern Australia that the Palmer Drought Severity Index indicated longer and more severe droughts in the transient simulation at about 2xCO2 conditions than in the control simulation…
”
“The BM’s David Jones, in 2008:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/this-drought-may-never-break/2008/01/03/1198949986473.html
As of this writing (feb 2013), Oz has exactly 0% severe drought (one of 5 lowest). A miniscule portion has Serious (in the bottom 10). ”
2013–“I’m curiously (and a bit nervously) awaiting this year’s minimum. Will it reach the levels we saw in 2012? Or will there be a ‘recovery’ for denialist apologs to crow over? Under 1 million km2 ice–one definition of ‘ice-free’– would be stunning, but is not out of the question..”
The IPCC famous “Glaciers Gone by 2035.”
2013 March, this guy predicts total ice loss between 2013 and 2018.
“Snow is a thing of the past, in 2004, according to a Lib dem.
“”Britons will soon be left with only dreams of a white Christmas, as the chances of it actually happening become more remote. Global warming is the main reason for this shift in seasonal weather and is responsible for changing the world as we know it.
”
“Schneider predicting, in the next 5 years:
there will likely be another dramatic upward spike like 1992-2000
This was in 2009.”
“Mojib Latif (IPCC) predicted:
“There aren’t going to be winters with strong frosts and lots of snow at our latitudes anymore, like 20 years ago.”
”
Scottish ski industry is a thing of the past. In 2009.
“This paper was quoted in AR4. Fig 3 shows that expected Antarctic ice extent decline is similar to Arctic. From the paper:
In the SH, the models generally overestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea ice extent and display, on average, a negative trend over 1981–2000. This contrasts with the observations that indicate rather a slight increase.”
The NRDC predicts a reduction in NE snow fall.
“This Sierra Club blogger predicted that the winter of 2012-13 would be less wintry than 2011-2012, with even less snow. Major fail.
He also predicted that arctic ice would not last through 2013.”
The UK will look like the Med, according to the National Trust. Not in March 2013, it didn’t.
“researchers from the Met Office, in 2012, predicted “”in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record””.
”
Arctic ice to be gone by 2013.
Hansen, in 1986, predicted 2.5 to 5 degrees of warming by 2010. Ummm…Fail.
Are Cold Winters a Thing of the Past? (2008)
“The Met Office predictions for winter 2013:

For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above average UK mean temperatures become more likely.
Ooops.”
The Met Office warning of a dry spell in 2012; just before the wettest April on record.
The Met Office predicted in dec 2012, that 2013 would be one of the warmest on record, with an anomaly of 0.57 deg C
“Snow on England and Wales highest mountain, may one day be no more than a memory. (2004)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/4112137.stm
Fast forward to 2013.
Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts.
Workers using two excavators tried but failed to clear the 4.7 mile (7.5km) track.
The railway resumed operations from Llanberis last week after the winter break but they were suspended within days after heavy snow on the mountain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-21969488”
In Feb 2012, the UK Environment secretary said that drought may be the “new normal”. 2012 ended up being one of the wettest on record.
“This site predicted 4.5 billion deaths by 2012. Oddly, the page is no longer there. Fortunately, a screen cap was caught.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/climate-fail-files/over-4-5-billion-people-could-die-from-global-warming-related-causes-by-2012/”
Nearly 60 predictions for winter. Almost all predict less snow, more warmth.
The EPA predicts reduced snow cover.
The British government predicted a major heat wave by 2012, and up to 10,000 deaths.
The 2001 TAR showed no obvious multi-year (>2 years) period where there was a cooling or even flat temps. Definitely a monotonic rise on a decadal scale.
Hubert Lamb’s prediction of a Little Ice Age for Britain, in 1964. Lamb of course, founded the CRU.
“Hansen said temps could rise by 1 degree by 2000, and 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade.He also said that atmospheric CO2 woudl double by the late 2020s. Oops.
Another prediction, from Macquire, is that temps would rise 3 to 8 degrees by 2030, and sea levels 4.5 feet. Going to have to hurry, to reach those numbers.. ”
“FOI request pulled these papers from the Met Office. They are much more circumspect in the briefing papers, then in front of the press. Basically, they have no idea why its hot, dry, wet or cold. Arctic ice loss driving weather? very uncertain…. but this is currently an unknown.
”
“FAQ 4.1 – Is the Amount of snow and ice on the earth decreasing?
A – Yes. Snow cover is retreating earlier in the spring”
“The predicton in 2009 was that the Scottish ski industry was doomed.
In 2013, they are thinking they may be open in the summer.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scottish-ski-resorts-eye-summer-season-1-2881471
in 2014, the lifts were UNDER the snow.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-26339994”
From 2004 – Polar bears will become so skinny by 2012, that they will be unable to reproduce.
“Most climate models predicted a reduction in Antarctic ice pack. From the paper:
average Antarctic sea ice area is not retreating but has slowly increased since satellite measurements began in 1979. While most climate models from the CMIP5 archive simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice area over the recent past…”
Al Gore predicted in 2008, that in 5 years, the arctic ice could be gone.
John Kerry, echoing the conclusions of scientists who predict arctic ice to be gone by 2013.
Ms. Fiqueres predicts that 5 billion people will be put into poverty by 2015, through climate change.
All snow will be gone from Mt Snowdon by 2020.
A number of predictions that have proved false, with references.,
May, 2013, Its predicted that the arctic ice will be gone in two years.
This article suggests that the peak will not be production, but demand.
Andrew Dessler predicted in 2011, that for Texas, the rest of the 21st century would be “very much like the hot and dry weather of 2011.”
Hansen predicted in 1986, that temps would rise between 3 and 4 degrees by 2010-2020.
Hansen’s seminal 1988 paper, with his 3 scenarios. For 2012, scenario A and B were over 1 deg C above the long term average. Scenario C was at 0.6 deg C. Global temps have been running under even Scenario C….also predicts hotter summers for Washington and Omaha, with % chance. His summary concludes that over 0.4 deg C is the “smoking gun”.
Predicts ice free arctic by 2015.
the IPCC predictions in 2007, for temperature, precipitation, tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones.
“Nepstad, in 2009 suggested that AGW was drying the Amazon. Of course, the Amazon has been getting wetter since 1990.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50377/abstract”
The last National Assesment of Climate Change used models that perfromed, on average, 1/2 as well as RANDOM NUMBERS.
“Dessler precdicted that Texas would endure permanent drought in the 21st century.
Get used to it. The weather of the 21st century will be very much like the hot and dry weather of 2011.
”
“In 2009, it was predicted that temepratures would increase, over the next 5 years, and at 150% the rate predicted by the IPCC. Oops. That means it needs to warm up by nearly 0.5 deg C, in 2014.
As solar activity picks up again in the coming years, the research suggests, temperatures will shoot up at 150% of the rate predicted by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”
“Hansen predicted that the world would warm 2 degrees in 20 years.
In 1986.”
Sure seems like the MSM and climatologists were predicting an ice age.
First earth day and 15 predictions that never came close to reality.
The Met Office predicted average temperatures for the spring in England of 2013. Which just happened to be the coldest in over 100 years.
Pope predicted, in 2004, that temperatures would rise 0.3 deg by 2014. And 1/2 the years after 2009 will hotter than the record set in 1998.
Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013.
Met Office failed predictions. I like the one about overstating the warmth 11 out of 12 years.
Ledan and Rind predicted, in 2009, that temps would rise 0.15 deg, which is 50% higher than IPCC rates. With one year to go, both appear to be wrong.
“Hansen predicted in 1988, that the SE US would see above average warming:
there is a tendency in the model for greater than average warming in the southeastern and central U.S. and relatively cooler or less than average warming in the western U.S. and much of Europe in the late 1980s and in the 1990s. …

http://climateaudit.org/2008/01/27/hansen-and-hot-summers-in-the-southeast/
The south eastern US has COOLED over the last 100 years, in all seasons.”
Arctic ice predictions for 2013, by various groups. Note the Met Office predicting the lowest level of ice.
Predcitions that the UK will get a climate, and vegetation, like that in Souhtern France or Portugal.
“I don’t think Les was talking about seasons. And yes, the arctic ice is currently at close to the second lowest level and on track to equal or exceed last year’s record breaking melt!
”
A comparison of 3 successive Met Office predictions for global temperature. There is a drop from the 2010 forecast of 0.9 deg anomaly, to the 2011 forecast of 0.6, to the 2012 forecast of 0.3 deg in 2017.
Serreze predicted that arctic ice would be gone in 5 years, in 2007.
Hansen predicted a 10-40% loss in Antartic ice. (fig 2-4)
Hansen predicted in 1986, that temps would rise 2 deg by 2006, and 3-4 degrees by 2010-2020.
In 2011, Maslowski updated his 2007 forecast of an ice free arctic, to 2016, plus or minus 3 years.
“June 20, 2008
“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.
”
“Here is a compilation of ice-free Arctic Ocean / North Pole predictions / projections from scientists for the past, present and future.
Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim – Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
__________________
Canada.com – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
[Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
__________________
National Geographic – 12 December 2007
“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
[Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]
__________________
BBC – 12 December 2007
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________
Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
“…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________
Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
“If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,”
[Dr. Mark Drinkwater]
__________________
Guardian – 17 September 2012
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
[Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]
__________________
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
”
Some claim the IPCC does not make predictions. This shows exactly where they did make predictions.
“CCSM4 models al predict declining Antarctic sea ice.
In twentieth-century integrations, Antarctic sea ice area exhibits significant decreasing annual trends in all six ensemble members from 1950 to 2005, in apparent contrast to observations that suggest a modest ice area increase since 1979.”
“CMIP5 models predict declining sea ice. This paper balmes the differenc e between model and real world as “”natural variability””.
http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/polvani+smith-GRL-2013.pdf”
“Predictions made to 2065, with and without ozone forcings.
Sea ice extent declines in both ensembles, as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations”
“Once again, “”natural variability””.
In contrast to Arctic sea ice, average Antarctic sea ice area is not retreating but has slowly increased since satellite measurements began in 1979. While most climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice area over the recent past, whether these models can be dismissed as being wrong depends on more than just the sign of change compared to observations”
“Again, the IPCC models of choice, CMIP5, show different results than real world.
all of the models have a negative trend in SIE since the mid-nineteenth century. The negative SIE trends in most of the model runs over 1979–2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly.
”
Predictions of arctic ice extent. Use the list at the left, to go back to different years, 2008 and on.
Hansen predicted in 1986, that temps would rise 1/2 to 1 deg F by 2000, and 2-4 deg F by 2010. Fail.
Jan 4, 2008. “This drought may never break”. Over the last 24 months (to Aug 2013), about 99% of Oz is NOT in drought.
“It was predicted that due to rising sea levels, the Maldives drinking water would be gone in 4 years, and the islands completely swamped in 30 years.
This prediction was made in 1988.”
The UKCIP predicted in 2009, based on Met Office data, that the UK would get warmer; summers warmer and drier; winters warmer and wetter. Fail.
Hansens BAU was Scenario A, not the revionist Scenario B.
Maslowski’s latest prediction of an ice free arctic is 2016, after his 2013 guess was obviously wrong.
“Oops. Met office could not make an accurate decadal prediction, nearly 1/2 way through the period….
Our results also suggest that studies of the Arctic climate based on reanalyses should be undertaken with extreme caution.””
”
The many predictions of food shortages.
Viner again making silly predictions. You would think that someone who worked for a Climate Research Unit, would know that the UK has tornadoes, and that per sq mile, it is the most active country on earth for those storms, albeit weak ones.
Flannery also predicted that the arctic would be ice free by 2013.
Hansen, in 1986, predicted 3 to 4 degrees F of warming, between 2010 and 2020.
Maslowski predicts that ice will disappear by as early as 2016.
Krugman predicted in 1998, that the Internet would turn out to have no more impact than the fax machine. And that IT jobs would evaporate.
“The TAR had this to say about predictions of climate:
In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
The Met Office has been wrong 13 of the last 14 years, in temperture predictions, and always on the high side. Its also already been shown that ithe MO prediction that half the years from 2010-2015 would be records, to be wrong. And with 2 full years to go, and on a 6 year prediction.
Hansen’s 1981 paper shows only about 0.1 deg of warming in 1940. The historfical record in 1997 shows about 0.5, so out by a factor of 5. Projecting out to 2010, there should be 1 deg of warming. Warming is about 0.6, Fail.
“Skiing is doomed in Scotland. 2009 prediction.
2014 reality, the chair lifts are buried.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-26088292”
Viner again predciting the end, but of the ski industry, in 2004.
“Matt England, explaining less than 2 years ago (2012), that global warming was right on track with IPCC projections.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3650773.htm
Less than 2 years later, he says temps have remained steady since 2001, due to an increasing trade wind.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2106.html
At least we have a date. He says this hiatus could persist till the end of the decade.”
“Once again, the MO screws it up. This is the winter precipitation forecast from November 2013.

The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).”
“This writer uses January Leading Indicators (JLI) to predict the coming year temps. This is a stock market tool, but looking at past JLI, the accuracy is not bad, with RSS and UAH coming in at about 80% correct when using JLI.
Using JLI the temps would come in at 0.231 for UAH, and 0.214 for RSS, for the average temps for 2014.
The MO predicts between 0.43 and 0.71.
Hansen predicts 2014 to be warmer than 2013, and perhaps the warmest on record. 2015 will be warmer yet.”
Some predictions for ENSO in 2014-2105, and also for record temperatures.
The NOAA scored -22 on a scale of -50 to 100, with 100 being totally right, and -50 being monkeys throwing darts. The Sept 2013 forecast for Oct-Dec was even worse, -23.
The Met Office predicted below average precipitation for DJF. Of course, they changed the title once the floods hit (see Google cache). Link to Met Office document is also there.
“One more guy worried about snow fall for the ski industry. I guess he never looked outside. From a paper 2 weeks later.
http://denver.cbslocal.com/2014/03/02/loveland-ski-area-surpasses-300-inches-of-snow/”
“In 2009, experts warned that people from the south would soon flood northern cities, to escape a warming climate. But even warmists like Krugman know that people like the warmth, and are moving there.
http://www.globalwarming.org/2014/03/04/voting-with-their-feet-warmer-is-better/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+globalwarmingorg+%28GlobalWarming.org%29”
More on Tim’s amazingly bad predictions. Now apparently, he is trying to deny that he said what he is recorded as saying.
“One prediction using January Leading Indicators (JLI, a financial model), and the Met Office predictions.
MO prediction is between 0.43 and 0.71 deg above the 1961-1990 average, with a mean of 0.57 deg C
An average of HadCRUT4, GISS and NOAA, using JLI, gives 0.537
Qualitative JLI gives a warmer 2014, vs 2013. Quantatative JLI gives a cooler 2014 vs 2013.”
Multiple predictions by this scientist on how the reef was doomed. Then a few months or years later, and he is “surprised” or “overjoyed” at how it recovered.
“Not only can economists not predict the future, they could not predict the present.
It is interesting to see that economists also predicted that countries with more regulations, woul do better in in recovering from the crisis. As it turned out, the cost of the regulations were greater than any benefit. In other words, the regulations, rather than helping, hindered the ability of business to recover.
Bonus quote:
In an autobiographical essay published 20 years ago, the left-leaning economist Kenneth Arrow recalled entering the Army as a statistician and weather specialist during World War II. “Some of my colleagues had the responsibility of preparing long-range weather forecasts, i.e., for the following month,” Arrow wrote. “The statisticians among us subjected these forecasts to verification and found they differed in no way from chance.”
Alarmed, Arrow and his colleagues tried to bring this important discovery to the attention of the commanding officer. At last the word came down from a high-ranking aide.
“The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good,” the aide said haughtily. “However, he needs them for planning purposes.”
”
Mann predicts that temps wil rise above 2 deg C by 2036. If temps were to up in a linear fashion, the temperature anomaly will be 1 deg C by 2020.
“Hansen predicted in 2006, that a Super el Nino would form, in 2006. Fail.
He also tries to back out his famous 1988 predictions, where in 1988, the A scenario was BAU; in 2006 it becomes “”on the high side of reality””. In his original paper, he calls it the high side of reality, because of finite resource concerns, even though Scenario A only uses a 1.5% per year increases, vs. the 4% measured in the past century.
In 1988, Scenario B was with some cuts in emissions; in 2006 it becomes “”most plausible””, even though no cuts occured. But, yes, it is called “”most plausible”” in the 1988 paper, but again, due to finite resources.
http://www.klimaskeptiker.info/download/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf”
In 2008, Hansen predicted the arctic would be ice free in 5 to 10 years.
“Arctic ice will be gone by 2015, according to this IPCC review editor, in 2013.
In 2012, he had it a little later, at 2016.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice“

Anthony: I know I had a lot of URLs in the previous post, so it will get hung up.
If you want I can also give the remaining references I have for those predictions.

Here is a tip for anyone creating any long lists pertaining to challenging ‘climate science’. Remember Warmists will take a look and try to shoot it down by saying “Oh, but they aren’t even scientists but actors” or “but they didn’t actually say that as it’s not quoted” blah, blah. This is why, unless it is warranted like weather events / headlines, I try to stick long lists with exact quotes and / or scientists, peer reviewed abstracts.
Ordinary references in comments is OK, but if you are going to make fun of them watch out for the holes. 😉
Here is a list I made in 2011 on WUWT. I learned a few things too. 😉
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/03/the-big-self-parodying-climate-change-blame-list/

Anthony,
it would be great if such a list (complete with references and all) was in your “Climate FAIL Files” menu up there…

The Motl quote should likely by Daniel Patrick Moynihan. See http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/03/moynihan-nixon-global-warming_n_634526.html

Rarely do I side with the AGW point of view, but to call these “failed predictions” is really stretching it. Some are notable, but very few.

Details, details.
You gotta look at the big picture and not let facts get in the way of the warmunist agenda.
For every misstatement above, I’m sure the warmunists could provide a reason why global warming was at fault and validates their position.

Actually, if you think about it, these nut cases are making predictions right now. Just look at the reactions to the IPCC report in the media. Never make predictions, especially about the future.
I have been keeping a special file open with quotes from Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University and continue to look for more. I am waiting excitedly for an ice free Arctic ocean in September 2015 and 2016 – because he made a flexible and rigid prediction. I suspect he is going to go under the radar for the next few years or take early retirement. Old fool. 😉

Jimbo: wadhams actually ice being gone by 2013.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Then 2015.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/4084c8ee-fa36-11e2-98e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2xeqilHwb
Then 2016.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

My favorite prediction story, albeit on economics.
Not only can economists not predict the future, they could not predict the present.
It is interesting to see that economists also predicted that countries with more regulations, would do better in in recovering from the crisis. As it turned out, the cost of the regulations were greater than any benefit. In other words, the regulations, rather than helping, hindered the ability of business to recover.
Bonus quote:
In an autobiographical essay published 20 years ago, the left-leaning economist Kenneth Arrow recalled entering the Army as a statistician and weather specialist during World War II. “Some of my colleagues had the responsibility of preparing long-range weather forecasts, i.e., for the following month,” Arrow wrote. “The statisticians among us subjected these forecasts to verification and found they differed in no way from chance.”
Alarmed, Arrow and his colleagues tried to bring this important discovery to the attention of the commanding officer. At last the word came down from a high-ranking aide.
“The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good,” the aide said haughtily. “However, he needs them for planning purposes.”

via Junk Science
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/wrong-again_784910.html

Les Johnson says:
April 2, 2014 at 12:41 pm
Jimbo: wadhams actually ice being gone by 2013.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

Les, I think he was referring to Professor Wieslaw Maslowski’s prediction. He said it was a good model but did not predict the end of Arctic ice on a given date. The other 2 links I have in my files.

BBC – 2007
Wadhams
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

As you can see he did not fail as he said ‘might’. However, since then he has given 2 dates beyond which his prediction fails. See below.

Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.
“It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
——-
The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
“The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
—–
Guardian – 17 September 2012
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

JimS says:
April 2, 2014 at 12:10 pm
Rarely do I side with the AGW point of view, but to call these “failed predictions” is really stretching it. Some are notable, but very few.

As long as the weather and climate don’t co-operate then each year the more and more fall into the failed predictions camp. Climate is 30 years. So anyone who did not give a specific date before a 30 year time span will extremely likely go into the failed camp. Think about it.

What? Nothing from out much beloved Tim Flannery?

RoHa: Go back a bit to my LOOONNNGG posting at 11:46. I have several Flannery predictions in there.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/why_is_flannery_still_climate_commissioner/
Tim and his many failed predictions on Ozzie drought. It should be noted that it was because of warninsg like Flannery’s, that Australia spent billions on de-salination plants that are no longer needed. Nor was that money spent on dams for flood control, as it was thought to be wasted money.
http://web.archive.org/web/20120106132816/http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/business-leaders-discuss-climate/3273738
Flannery also predicted that the arctic would be ice free by 2013.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/flannery_denies_what_he_actually_said/
More on Tim’s amazingly bad predictions. Now apparently, he is trying to deny that he said what he is recorded as saying.

My monies on the next turn of the wheel being ocean acidification.
From Global Warming (it didn’t) to Climate Change (it does naturally) to ocean acidification through over increase in CO2 content.
You wont win any argument with any religious zealot. They have FAITH, you do not.

It would me much, much more effective to present this list (probably pruned, as some claims have not yet really been falsified) with the claim, reference, and then immediately with links to the evidence that refute them.
Indeed, this should be a permanent page on WUWT, regularly updated. One could even name it the Bullshit! page or the Climate Prediction Fail page. This might or might not be useful with respect to all of the science — real science papers are usually very circumspect in their claims. However it would be enormously useful in identify, and debunking, runaway global warming memes by identifying the point where they were released into the wild and comparing the egregious and terrifying predictions with reality. Indeed, it could easily be named The Climate Science that Cried Wolf page or the Chicken Little page.
Here is an example to get it started:
Claim: The oceans will rise by five meters by 2100.
Author: James Hansen, chief of NASA GISS from 1981 to 2013.
Link: http://www.ted.com/talks/james_hansen_why_i_must_speak_out_about_climate_change
Evidence (so far): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Trends_in_global_average_absolute_sea_level,_1870-2008_%28US_EPA%29.png
(which only goes to 2008, probably because SLR has slowed significantly in the years in between. The satellite (only) part of the right hand end up to the present:
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
Summary: The rate is “currently” 3.2 mm/year, according to this figure, but also according to this figure the rate itself peaked in a stretch across 2000 to 2006 and has actually dropped slightly since, although the figure splices together three different satellite measures. The tide gauge data: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/tide-gauge-sea-level (as crudely as this presents it) is indicating a slower rate, under 3 mm/year and possibly also slowing.
SLR has been remarkably consistent over the entire 140 years or so of tide gauge data. Within substantial uncertainties, the rate has been 2mm/year plus or minus about 1 mm/year. We are over 1/8 of the way to 2100, decades later than the time Hansen made his egregious predictions of SLR doom, and there is little reason to think that the rate of SLR has any chance of reaching 1 meter by 2100, let alone 5. I suspect most climate scientists are embarrassed by the claim, since current estimates are well under a meter by 2100 and falling rapidly as the years without any significant acceleration add one upon another with CO_2 having increased already by more than 1/3 since roughly 1950.
Conclusion: Failure Pending
Claim: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uxfiuKB_R8 (James Hansen, again).
Summary: The arctic will cool as Greenland melts. Storms will grow far more violent. Runaway greenhouse warming will occur and the oceans will (eventually) boil. No kidding.
Evidence: It’s difficult to know where to start. The Arctic is warming (if anything), not cooling. Greenland is not melting. Storms are not more violent or more frequent. There is no evidence of runaway greenhouse warming in the longest running climate proxy reconstructions even when Antarctica was warm and green during the summers and CO_2 levels were as much as 20 times higher than they are today. The Ordovician-Silurian transition glacial epoch began with CO_2 levels some 17 times higher than the present, and peaked with CO_2 levels some 10 times the present. Nobody knows why (and some very exotic stuff is presented as possible reasons — the sun passing through an galactic cloud of space dust, that sort of thing).
Conclusion: Fail so far. In fact, not even a hint of success. Time frame uncertainty makes it difficult to properly falsify, though, at least until Greenland melts.
Let’s redo a few from up above:
37. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover.”
Global Environmental Change, Nigel W. Arnell, Geographer, 1 Oct 1999
****
38. “Computer models predict that the temperature rise will continue at that accelerated pace if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not reduced, and also predict that warming will be especially pronounced in the wintertime.”
Star News, William K. Stevens, New York Times, 11 Mar 2000
****
39. “In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn.”
Nature, T. P. Barnett et. al., 17 Nov 2005
Evidence: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
Summary: From 1967 to the present, there is a robust trend towards increasing NH snow extent. Five of the top six years for snow extent occurred between 2003 and the present. There is on average rough 1 million square kilometers greater snow extent now/recently than there was in the supposedly colder 1960s.
Conclusion: Fail. Fail. Fail. Also, What’s Up With That? If one admits as a general hypothesis the idea that NH snow extent should scale at least crudely inversely with NH temperature, the slope should be negative! Monthly anomaly data (also available on this site) are no better — they (curiously) show that the monthly anomalies were much higher before 1986, plunged quite suddenly over the three years from 1987 to 1990, and have been generally recovering ever since with slightly better than neutral anomalies for the last few years. In addition to just how they compute an “anomaly” (certainly not relative to the mean of the graph) this raises consistency issues — just how are the anomalies so anemic compared to the snow extent that in some sense should sum over the anomalies? Either way, though, Fail Fail Fail.
97. March 29, 2001, CNN: “In ten year’s time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels.”
Evidence: https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=10773750185851 (view at medium resolution.) Date: April 2, 2014 is 13 years after 2001.
Summary: Count the islands.
Conclusion: Don’t be silly.
105. June 11, 1986, Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) in testimony to Congress (according to the Milwaukee Journal): “Hansen predicted global temperatures should be nearly 2 degrees higher in 20 years, ‘which is about the warmest the earth has been in the last 100,000 years.’”
Evidence: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1986/to:2006 (Hansen’s endpoints, not mine.)
Summary: Let’s be generous and assume that Hansen (a scientist) was using 2 F and not 2 C (which is what he should have meant, but this is Congress). The direct evidence is for 0.4 C of warming, which is 0.72 F. His prediction was too high by a factor of almost three. But this doesn’t begin to indicate the depth of the problem. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1986/to:2015 shows that temperatures have actually decreased since 2006, to where if we actually use the February endpoint against 1986, there has only been 0.2 C or 0.4 F rounding up over not a decade, but thirteen years.
Separately, we could consider plots of Holocene temperature reconstructions, general Pliestocene temperature reconstructions, adjust for the usual high frequency vs low frequency problem with the proxies, and conclude that it is probable that temperatures now are lower than they were in the Holocene optimum (since we’re still warming in recovery from the LIA, the coldest single stretch in the Holocene in 9000 years), or we could consider more recent non-hockey-stick evidence that suggests that the Medieval warm period was very likely just about as warm as today. Either way, Hansen’s assertion for highest in 100,000 years — spotting him the entire Wisconsin and Younger Dryas even though that is just silly — is probably false, it might be the warmest in 1000 years. Or it might not. Lots of thumbs on the HADCRUT scales and it is nearly impossible to precisely determine global average surface temperatures with thermometers.
Conclusion: This is sworn testimony to the US Congress? This is the man that headed NASA GISS for decades? Why not just put http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_Hovind in charge of the National Science Foundation? How in the world could the United States put a man who so obviously lacked anything approximating scientific objectivity in charge of an organization which then unsurprisingly devoted all of its considerable and growing resources into proving him right by any means necessary?
Fail.
So please, WUWT members, contribute. It isn’t enough to just post assertions of failure (even if some of them are obvious). Document them. With sound, unbiased links to third party evidence, journal articles, graphs, photographs. Is Nebraska blowing away? Post photographs and links to the true state of Nebraska these days. Is Malaria in Spain running wild? Post links like this one: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3375659/ that correctly and reasonably identify the cause of increased Mediterranean malaria to increased immigration from malaria rich African countries, who then reseed existing Anopheles populations with the parasite. Post links to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erie_Canal and quote:
“When the canal reached Montezuma Marsh (at the outlet of Cayuga Lake west of Syracuse), over 1,000 workers died of “swamp fever” (malaria) and construction stopped.”
Note things such as the fact that this was in the middle of the Dalton Minimum, a few short years after the Tambora explosion put 38 cubic miles of pulverized dust into the atmosphere (1815) and the infamous “Year without a Summer” (1816). This is a few miles away from where I lived (Skaneateles) in upstate New York, and even now it is as cold as a well-digger’s ass. Malaria was pandemic in Siberia, Canada, the US, Northern Europe throughout the coldest of times because the Anopheles mosquito is perfectly happy in any swampy terrain that melts during the summer — subzero winter temperatures are nearly irrelevant to it except in that they limit the season it is likely to bite. It wasn’t climate change that ended the threat of malaria in developed countries, it was antibiotics and DDT and expensive modern medicine that all but eradicated it in the US and most of Europe.
This should really be a running project, as there are plenty of old claims and absurdities not on the list (I’ve added a few) and I’m sure more are coming in all the time. Some reasonable amount of care should be taken to put up only objectively verifiable data or peer reviewed publications (except where the refutation can be reduced to e.g. pictures of Tuvalu, unsubmerged by an ocean that stubbornly refuses to rise any faster than the 2-3 mm/year it has risen for a century or more).
rgb

Mod, a tiny bit of help, please. I failed to correctly close a boldface tag (sigh) and wrote “13 years” where I meant to write “27 years” when addressing Hansen’s prediction of 2F warming in 20 years. I also made several trivial grammar errors, but (double sigh) it probably isn’t worth the effort of correcting them so I’ll just have to sound illiterate. Again. Damn.
rgb
REPLY: Fixed what I could find, the only mention of 13 years seems correct in context, leave another comment with details if need be – Anthony

I believe a web page is called for for all failed predictions and a voting system to keep up a top ten of who made the worst predictions, which newspapers fell for it and the funniest predictions.
This needs serious mockery.

rgbatduke says:
April 2, 2014 at 2:31 pm
It would me much, much more effective to present this list (probably pruned, as some claims have not yet really been falsified) with the claim, reference, and then immediately with links to the evidence that refute them.
Indeed, this should be a permanent page on WUWT, regularly updated…..

I think it is HERE.
——————————-
It is high time we got this thing together via a brainstorm to list predictions that have clearly failed. Wadhams is the next likely target for September 2016. He has been very firm with this as a final date for the Arctic to be ice free without caveat.
On this page Pierre has been clear that some of the predictions have been pushed forward so we have to wait. A clear date deadline is the key with no caveats. 50 million climate refugees set a date. Maslowski set a date.
If I said there may be 50 million climate refugees by 2012, I get wiggle room. If I said there WILL be 50 million climate refugees by 2012 then I have failed.

95. October 15, 1990 Carl Sagan: “The planet could face an ‘ecological and agricultural catastrophe’ by the next decade if global warming trends continue.”
.
Bit of a shame this one. Childhood hero of mine.
As an aside wasn’t it Sagan who stated on camera that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”?

Jimbo: I thought I recognized the style. That was some of your sea ice predictions in my long list.
I looked, and sure enough, it was your name in the “hat tip” column of the data.

On WUWT Climate Fail Files there is one entry.
50 million climate refugees
You could add Professor Wieslaw Maslowski’s prediction of an ice free Arctic on or by 2013. He said that date was already too conservative. He later revised his prediction but that should not get him off the Climate Fail Files. He failed. Don’t let them get away with revision, otherwise the page would be worthless.

Well, it COULD happen! /choke…snarf…sarc…gurgle/ What fun! I’m so glad some of you are so anal or have so much time on your hands (or else are very organized, have high performance standards, and work very hard and smart) to debunk these insufferable, murderous idiots. Well done. Pour it on (and I’ll try to contribute content/$/whatever that helps). Respectfully, JimF

Surely the greater challenge is to find a single warmist prediction that did bear fruit!