Josh on the cloud of uncertainty, er, certainty over the IPCC WG II report

Now that the IPCC WG II report has been released, you can expect a full round of wailing and gnashing of teeth, because they are quite certain the world is going to thermageddon in a handbasket.

Josh stopped along the journey to sketch the trek of the faithful.

Josh-IPCC-WGII-refugees

 

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38 thoughts on “Josh on the cloud of uncertainty, er, certainty over the IPCC WG II report

  1. Great cartoon – as someone noted elsewhere, the descent of Mann…..
    (I need new glasses – I read the AR5 as ARS ….)….

  2. That is funny. However, if I wore one of those goatee thingies and worked in climate science, my response would be an imperious “we are not amused”!

  3. I left a post on the Guardian website. I was careful not to use any bad language or insult anyone. I merely pointed out recalling that the scientists were telling me that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere was the main driver of global temperatures 15 years ago, overriding all other factors. Since then CO2 has risen and global temperatures have not.

    My post was removed.

    I always enjoy a good debate, one that debates the facts rather than attacks the people. And of course, one that ultimately uses predictions and outcomes to decide the issue. I wouldnt, for example, have minded so much if someone had pointed out that my memory was faulty, and that no such prediction had been made, but to remove the comment?

  4. Oh, Jeff…the Descent of Mann. That’s got to hurt. Except, of course, the Mann in question will probably never have heard of Jacob Bronowski or, indeed, the work by Charles Darwin on which Bronowski’s title is an ironic reference, so it may not hurt. Don’t think the warmists do irony.

    By the way, you don’t need glasses. Do you?

  5. Love it! The only climate refugees will be those displaced from their homes by their grants being cut!

  6. Dave says:
    March 31, 2014 at 8:23 am

    Re: You comments being removed at the Guardian. Don’t feel bad. I was recently banned from Scientific American for pointing out that Michael Mann had not actually received the Nobel prize.

    The intolerance of the Alarmists is reaching fever pitch.

  7. The problem is not the cloud of uncertainty, it’s the uncertainty of clouds. Cloud feedback is the most powerful feedback in all of climate because it gates solar irradiance on and off. It is the most powerful negative feedback because it mitigates warming from any source. It is the most powerful positive feedback because clouds burn off in proportion to solar irradiance. It is the most uncertain because it is not included dynamically in IPCC Global Circulation/Climate/Catastrophe Models.

    The cloud of uncertainty is why anyone is concerned about the machinations of Working Group II or III when Working Group I has yet to approximate climate.

  8. I don’t think Michael Mann is one of the WG II authors. Fairly sure he’s only an author for WG I

    REPLY: No, that’s a caricature of the balding gotaeed “Everymann Climate Scientist”, to which Gavin, Wigley, and others fit quite well into – Anthony

  9. Dave, what you experienced is just a microcosm of the entire enterprise that has all of us so frustrated. The essence of it is–and has been since the enterprise took on momentum in the 1980s–that the conclusion is certain and that it determines the evidence and the logic, not vice-versa. It is a reversion to pre-Enlightenment natural philosophy. Get used to it, because despite ongoing protestations (which are right and proper and to be commended), it’s not, IMO going to revert back in our lifetimes. This is a civilizational issue and civilizations don’t change that fast.

  10. Jeff says:
    March 31, 2014 at 8:20 am

    Great cartoon – as someone noted elsewhere, the descent of Mann…..
    (I need new glasses – I read the AR5 as ARS ….)….

    _______________________________________________

    No difference that I can see.

  11. I would suggest that we all visit the comment sections on news story sites over the next couple of weeks whenever possible and help counter the major propaganda war currently underway. It is the last-gasp, all out ditch effort for them to save their movement long enough to get the US chained once and for all to their agenda. They succeed, we all lose.

  12. As always, a great cartoon! The scientists are playing it down yet the loons are wailing & screaming their heads off!

  13. Once you’ve seen a few science frauds and reporter friends in action with scripted approaches to ignoring empirical evidence, they all start to look alike.

  14. @Dave: “…My post was removed.”

    Cheer up, I was banned a few weeks ago from another forum because I dared to post the GISS graph showing no significant rise in global temperatures for 17 years or so. I was accused of posting ‘a fallacy’. Yes, actual, observed scientific data is now considered ‘a fallacy’ by climate zealots and anyone who disagrees is to be silenced.

  15. Just been looking at some comments at the Guardian, there was a perfectly polite comment by a character – Donlast, just questioning the article on the doom and gloom, i refreshed the page , his comment had been deleted as it was deemed unfit by the moderator’s rules.

    I was looking through the Telegraph comments and they seem to let everything through from both sides.

  16. Dave says:
    March 31, 2014 at 8:23 am

    hey dave were you DONLAST, i left you a reply if it was you.

  17. Does the Guardian have an ombudsman to whom a complaint might be made regarding politically motivated moderation? I was thinking that folks might ScreenCap their posts and then file a complaint, attaching a copy of their post. If you demand a review, even if nothing formally comes of it there may be internal pressure generated that will cause the moderator to lighten his or her hand, especially if there is a serious volume of complaints.

  18. Mann’s road to hell – paved with rude intentions

    rude
    n adjective
    1 offensively impolite or ill-mannered. Øreferring to sex in a way considered improper and offensive.
    2 very abrupt: a rude awakening.
    3 chiefly British vigorous or hearty.
    4 dated roughly made or done; lacking sophistication. Øarchaic ignorant and uneducated.

  19. I started commenting at the Guardian a year ago and very quickly someone became abusive even though i remained polite, his comments were moderated but my replies were deleted as well.
    So now when i comment it comes up with your comment is under moderation, once in a blue moon do they let it through, well not for a long while now.

  20. Oh great. Now I’m going to have a nightmare tonight that Mann and Schmitt have made an unholy alliance and created offspring. *shudders*

  21. Well last night, I got kicked off the Rt. Hon. John Key’s e-mail comment site, for suggesting that NZ, and Australia should take the initiative, and lead the world away from the nonsense of CO2.

    They first spam tested me, by asking who is the NZ Prime Minister, which I
    passed (twice), but finally said I broke their rules. It might have been my use of the term “idiotic” that ticked off their deconspaminator, and zapped me. I think they done me in once before too.

    Quite unreasonable.

  22. Great art JOSH!!!

    To me, if there were no words in it, then I would think it was a pilgrimage of Mannkind acolytes returning disappointed from a gathering where there was a no-show of their prophet called CAGW who was expected to be carrying stone tables inscribed with words of doom.

    ; )

    John

  23. “David, UK says:
    March 31, 2014 at 1:42 pm
    Oh great. Now I’m going to have a nightmare tonight that Mann and Schmitt have made an unholy alliance and created offspring. *shudders*”

    Yeah, not the Munchkins….the Mann-chkins……

  24. Thanks to all for sharing their stories of banning and shunning by the Green Inquisitors. I feel honored to be now counted among you.

  25. Dave says:
    March 31, 2014 at 8:23 am
    My post was removed.
    ============
    disguise your post so it appears you are a warmer making fun of someone for pointing out there has been no warming. go over the top. done correctly your message will get through and then some. lay it on thick.

    use one of the free services (google free vpn) to change your IP so they will think you are a legit climate looney.

  26. “Jeff Alberts says:
    March 31, 2014 at 7:07 pm
    Pedant
    They’re actually Van Dykes, not Goatees.
    /Pedant”
    Yep, they’re the “I wanna look like Rick Warren but, like him, I’m afraid to commit to a full beard” type…..c’,mon guys, show some guts….grow a full beard (well-maintained, of course)….

    Only problem is when you shave it off…but, a few more zits won’t hurt, or?

    (Had a handlebar mustache for a few years…now THAT’s maintenance…don’t wanna hear about soup, etc.)….but it was popular thanks to the Oakland A’s….).

  27. Scored the best post on Bill Richardson’s article on CNN with this-

    “The biggest whopper above is that the science is settled.

    Earth’s thermodynamic equilibrium is controlled by thousands of inter-related variables in constant flux. Precise values are not known as to how these ever changing forcing’s affect long term climate trends. CO2’s climate sensitivity is highly disputed and not known to the degree that these kinds of definitive predictions can be made with any accuracy. The 17 years of negligible warming we have seen in the face of rising CO2 levels are empirical proof that climate models have overstated its effect.

    I can think of dozens of things that are more of a threat to our way of life than something that is not currently happening in the real world.”

    Being at the top of the list brought the haters out in force. I was called everything in the book. Scary that this benign statement could bring out such venom. Weird to be seen as dangerous when everyone who knows me see’s me as mellow. They gave up after consistent calm responses and some deleted their reply’s rather than have me respond.

    This is very much an uphill battle combating the scientific dictatorship that is in place.

  28. Vis-à-vis beards, there is a comment that just because you have hair around it, it doesn’t mean you have to talk like a Cnut! Written self deprecatingly by man with with beard.

  29. Phil Ford says:
    March 31, 2014 at 9:23 am
    “@Dave: “…My post was removed.”
    Cheer up, I was banned a few weeks ago from another forum because I dared to post the GISS graph showing no significant rise in global temperatures for 17 years or so. I was accused of posting ‘a fallacy’. Yes, actual, observed scientific data is now considered ‘a fallacy’ by climate zealots and anyone who disagrees is to be silenced.”

    One could argue that the GISS temperature history IS a fallacy; since it is getting rewritten over and over again by Gavin Schmidt, to cool the past and warm the present.

  30. DirkH says:
    April 1, 2014 at 1:40 am
    “One could argue that the GISS temperature history IS a fallacy; since it is getting rewritten over and over again by Gavin Schmidt, to cool the past and warm the present.”

    And let’s not forget that it is NASA that perpetrates that lie, doubtlessly at the instruction of their political paymasters.

  31. I thought, let’s make a forum in which guardian readers find a comment thread for each of the guardian’s articles so they can comment without the guardian’s moderation; and let’s call it grauniad.co.uk.

    But the domain is already taken. It redirects to the guardian.

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