Quote of the week – Masters of crazy weather

qotw_cropped
Weather Underground’s Dr. Jeff Masters jumps the shark with the Voice of Russia:

What kind of tendency such kind of things show if we take 10-20 years for example?

This is the coldest winter in about 20 years in the eastern part of the US. So, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen something like this. And we would expect with the warming climate to see fewer of this sort of winters but there will still be an occasional cold winter.

Does that actually show that climate change is not that predictable as many say?

That is for sure. Expect the unprecedented – that is kind of my watch words, when you disturb the climate like we have, we are going to see a lot of crazy weather events and that sure has been the case over the last few years.

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_03_04/US-record-cold-if-people-disturb-climate-crazy-weather-events-occur-meteorologist-2478/

h/t to Marc Morano

Apparently Dr. Masters pays no attention to the IPCC SREX report ( IPCC Special Report on Extremes PDF)

From Chapter 4 of the SREX:

  • “There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change”
  • “The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados”
  • “The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses”

And in the IPCC summary for policymakers, they give low confidence to tropical storm activity being connected to climate change, and don’t mention mesoscale events like tornadoes and thunderstorms at all. Similarly, they give low confidence to drought and flood attribution.

They’ve only talked about heat waves and precipitation events being connected. From Page 4 of the SPM:

IPCC_AR5_SPM_Extreme

IPCC_AR5_SPM_Table1

Now with two IPCC reports making no connection, and with Nature’s editorial in 2012 dashing alarmist hopes of linking extreme weather events to global warming saying:

Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.

There’s simply no connection between droughts, hurricanes, thunderstorms, flash floods, tornadoes and “climate change”. There’s no mention of colder, more snowy winters either.

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80 thoughts on “Quote of the week – Masters of crazy weather

  1. “Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.”

    Better models are needed before any event can be reliably linked to weather/climate.

    Just sayin’.

  2. Weather Underground’s Dr. Jeff Masters jumps the shark with the Voice of Russia:
    Expect the unprecedented
    ===========
    How can the coldest winter in 20 years be unprecedented if it was colder 20 years ago?

    Unprecedented means “never done or known before”. It does not means “happened 20 years ago”.

    Apparently Jeff is not a Master of English.

    https://www.google.ca/search?q=Unprecedented

    unprecedented
    never done or known before. without previous instance; never before known or experienced; unexampled or unparalleled: an unprecedented event.

  3. “Expect the unprecedented …”
    Well, since all weather phenomena are unique, every event is unprecedented. Warmists want to say that Typhoon Haiyan was unprecedented and therefore a harbinger of storms to come. But Tropical Storm Karen (2013) was also unprecedented. No other storm on record had the exact same track or life history. So why isn’t Karen a harbinger of storms to come? In the future, all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic will be little sheared apart, piss-ant storms. At least that’s the precedent.

  4. “Better models are needed”

    He needs some of them “sophisticated” models other researchers use.

  5. It’s kinda fun watching Meteorologists/Climate scientists, learn how to spin their ideology like politicians. The only real differences are that the former used to deal in science and evidence, and we expect spin from the latter.

  6. “This is the coldest winter in about 20 years in the eastern part of the US.”

    On a hunch, I looked through some old pictures, and found one data 2/27/2004. It was snow piled 10″ on my truck in my driveway, very much like we had a week ago (just 8″ this time).

    Pronouncements of “coldest” and “unprecedented” is marketing, not science.

  7. I expect there is not a single climate event in the past 100 years that is unprecedented. It has been much hotter and much colder in the past and at the same time CO2 levels have been much higher.

    If anything, times of higher CO2 and warmer temperatures were the time when life was abundant. Low CO2 and colder temperatures are times of ice ages, when pretty much the only thing that grew well was ice.

  8. @ ferdberple says:
    March 4, 2014 at 7:20 am
    “Apparently Jeff is not a Master of English.”

    He has voice of Russia in his head…

  9. One senses panic setting into the CAGW crowd. Never known for clear thinking, their increasingly frantic irrationality is getting to be a hoot. Self destruction in progress.
    Unprecedented turns out to be precedented. Warming isn’t. In the UK, Slingo tells Parliament in 2012 it’s colder and dryer because of a diminished ice cap and this will get worse. Then it floods from rain the following January instead. The Northwest passage will be ice free in 2013, then Canadian icebreakers have to free transiting cruise ships. Of course in Antarctica even icebreakers could not free the Ship of Fools. Germany turning to brown coal to keep the lights on. Spain killing solar subsidies. China buying into Athabascan tar sands because Obumer stalled KXL. It’s enough to drive Greenies crazy. And it is.

  10. “Expect the unprecedented – that is kind of my watch words, when you disturb the climate like we have, we are going to see a lot of crazy weather events….” But didn’t he just say is was precedented? As in about 20 years ago…?

    Nonetheless, subjectivity is the new cool. Who needs thermometers anyway? If you think you’re experiencing “a lot of crazy weather events,” that’s proof enough.

  11. Gamecock says:
    March 4, 2014 at 7:26 am
    “Better models are needed”
    =========
    a $20 dart board currently outperforms the billions of $$ spend on producing the IPCC model mean.

  12. I really like the way meteorology is presented on weather underground. It’s a shame it’s got Masters attached to it. This “Everything is Caused By Climate Change” approach doesn’t really lend credence to the AGW argument.

  13. If they want more reliable models they need to change the basic parameters around which present models are based. CO2 has no effect on climate as the empirical data shows.

  14. Back when I first started paying attention to Joe Bastardi, nearly a decade ago, he was warning we should expect to face what he called “a time of climatic hardship.” His warning was based upon prior weather, and what occurred the last time the “warm” PDO and AMO flipped over to the “cold” phases. His warning didn’t involve Global Warming one bit. It only needed history to repeat itself.

    I imagine he got laughed at a bit, as back then the talk was all warming followed by more warming, and how our children weren’t going to know what snow looked like.

    Now the PDO has flipped to the “cold” phase, and we are waiting for the AMO to also flip in the next few years. So far Mr. Bastardi looks wise and the Alarmists look like….well, unwise.

    At this point the Alarmists are flip-flopping like a trout on hot tar. They need to be reminded, over and over and over, of what they said in the past. Not that they will ever say the three very difficult words, “I was wrong.” Being able to say those three words is the sign of a true adult. Flip-flopping, on the other hand, means you’re up to something fishy.

  15. We know he’s lying, he know he’s lying, the entire scientific community knows he’s lying. Only a few idiot journalists believe in the ‘crazy weather’ meme.

    What a waste of time.

  16. It fully adheres to the Voice of Russia’s standards of truthfulness and reliability, reminding me of Dr. Goebbels, the propaganda minister for the Third Reich.

  17. What he fails to include in his ‘unexpected’, is that there could actually be little or no measurable change. It speaks volumes when somebody is unable to anticipate, or believe in the possibility of, the most likely possibility.

  18. “Does that actually show that climate change is not that predictable as many say?”

    What does that even mean? (should be in allcaps ’cause I’m actually shouting it!)

    I’ve had it up to here with the “climate change” phrase. Every time I see it used, it is to point at the weather. What happened? How did the town idiots manage to replace logic and science with nonsense? Where are the newspaper articles lampooning the notion that a weather event is caused by man? Where are the documentaries explaining how the earth’s weather actually works? Where are the rebuttals showing that weather data has not changed to any noticeable degree? What madness propells the doomongers to continue to spew this nonsense?

    Journalists have much to answer for in this expensive blind alley that politicians, universities, bureaucrats and activists have sent us down. I’m having one of those days where the frustration just overpowers me.

  19. It is rather pathetic that so many people who should know the difference between weather and climate don’t.

  20. the current ‘trend’ is for co2ers to start using whatever the actual does as proof of co2 change.

    its hot? its co2. It freezing? its co2,Its dry? its co2,its flooding? Co2

    they can’t predict any of it but its co2.

    heads i win tails you lose type mindset.

  21. Maybe slowly but surely the IPCC will actually be defending the skeptic posture more and more. It certainly seems like it is going this way currently, except for the political summary “extremely likely that AGW is responsible” ect.. statements

  22. Masters shows an unprecedented absence of fear of being embarrassed.

    Where does such a fool get the moxie to spout off with such obviously ignorant statements?
    He can’t possibly be that big of an ass.
    Even the occasional or modest observer of the climate discussion has a better understanding of what Masters spewed forth.
    So what is it? What happens with a guy like this? How does he reconcile his mind against reality?
    Something unknown is involved.
    He may as well be talking about how polar bears have all vanished or how Hawaii has been submerged be sea rise.

  23. Folks – please remember. Every time you click on a link to “Weather Underground” you are supporting Jeff Masters’ alarmism. There are MUCH BETTER weather information sites on the internet (such as Accuweather.com) – use them instead.

  24. Comrade Dr. Masters, good job writing your [gem] of propaganda showing climate change, undoubtedly whose blame falls squarely at the feet of those capitalist American pigs. The rubles have already been deposited into your account. Again, good job, and feel free to visit the dacha this weekend on the beautiful Crimean coast. Fondly, Vladimir

  25. Unprecedented since…..

    A lovely example of clear thinking :-) (and complete lack of logic/English language).

  26. Question for Dr. Masters: When did this start? What date can you name, prior to which we didn’t have “crazy weather”? Must have been before my time.

  27. There is high confidence that MANY hair-splitting policy-makers can dance on the head of a pin.

  28. Frank K. Thanks for pointing this out.
    I would use any other alternative to the WU stickers if I knew of one. This outfit serves them for almost any place on Earth.
    I don’t compound this support by clicking on the sticker if I don’t need the historical data.
    And yes, there are better 10-days local forecasts elsewhere, like the NWS which has very good 3-days local forecasts. I link to those I know.

  29. How is it D Aleo and I went out with a very cold winter, using analogs available of past weather similar to this, and then he claims this. Its startling to see the ignorance on display here, or deceit, for he is either ignorant of the past, or knows it and is twisting it. Perhaps the name of his company speaks volumes of where this mans agenda lies

  30. “Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.”

    No, we do not need beeter models. We need better science and better scientist. Safe the money instead developing new models and buyibg new computers. Do same real science with that money.

  31. Expect the unprecedented
    I expect to win 5 Billion dollars. How long do I have to wait?

    Unprecedented cold is caused by unprecedented global warming. This man must have Chiggers in his underpants. That would explain his incoherence.

    Here’s a report Dr. Jeff can chew on:
    Record Cold Meteorological Winter – UP Michigan

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mqt&storyid=100824&source=0

    Share the above link with all your family and friends.

  32. Unprecedented cold would be a symptom of reflected IR radiation being absorbed by atmospheric CO2.
    This is what he’s saying,
    despite the fact that there has been no “unprecedented” weather.
    He doesn’t mention any event.
    Vapidly idiotic? Or dangerously brain-washed?

  33. Another agent for the agenda driven co2 hoax commenting and really saying a lot of nothing. Same old song and dance huh!

  34. People comment a lot over Al Gore, Mann and Hanson, but Masters is the loudest voice and reaches more of an audience than nearly any AGW alarmist out there. This guy is a cherry picker of the worst kind.

  35. It’s a sad commentary that increasingly skeptics are having to directly quote the IPCC (that legendary bastion of unbiased climate science) to reign-in rogue alarmists. With everything seeming to go the wrong direction for the alarmists, it seems even the IPCC is sounding more credible and reasonable all the time as they climb down from some of their more outlandish projections. That’s not saying much, but it’s a start.

  36. Increases in atmospheric CO2 will make the Earth warmer.
    We will be able to detect a tropospheric warmzone in the tropics.
    The poles will both warm first and most
    We’l’l all either die of malaria or drown in a boiling ocean
    The science is settled
    This is Global Warming
    The theory right or wrong was explicit.

    Today the Earth has ceased to warm per prediction “Many Scientists” say all the absorbed IR radiation in those hot little CO2 molecules has inexplicably transported to below the oceans’ surface, way down.
    Now the weather is “wierd “and all weather events are “expected in a warming world.”(that just happens to really be quite cold.)
    This is Climate Change.
    The theory has not been explained.

  37. “when you disturb the climate like we have, we are going to see a lot of crazy weather events and that sure has been the case over the last few years.”

    I see, so the climate is kind of like a giant hornets’ nest, which we have (somehow) “disturbed”, and for which we are now paying the price. We have tossed carbon balls at the climate nest and woken it and enraged it. Oh woe is us.

  38. How can the coldest winter in 20 years be unprecedented if it was colder 20 years ago?

    It is sad to watch the destruction of logic and science in the West over this ridiculous idea that a trace gas (in which mankind’s contribution is a trace of that tiny amount) will fry us. We are now calling things “unprecedented” if it has been twenty years since it last happened. Oh my word.

    Over 17 years with no increase in temperatures (even as measured by the cheating government drones) while the CO2 levels went through the “greenhouse” roof. Does that experiment conducted by Lady Nature not tell us that this is all bullshit?

  39. Dr Masters also LIES.

    We had 5 to 6 inches of snow in mid February. (11th to the 13th)

    The first time I look at my town’s information the Hi temperature was above freezing for all three days and the Precipitation was listed as rain.

    I complained about Masters lying on his blog so now the data shows a Hi temp of 31 °F on one day only (rest above freezing) and 0.37 inches of Snow the first night plus 0.36 inches Rain , Snow the second day.
    The darn stuff was over my ankle bones! That is more than 0. 73 inches of snow! and I live near enough to WALK to the weather station and we aren’t talking drifts. (Less than an inch of snow on grass won’t drift.)

  40. Got to love Mother Nature. Not only hasn’t there been any Global Warming for 17 years there hasn’t been any Climate change either.

    The warmers thought they had a slam dunk with ‘Climate Change’ they couldn’t lose but not only are we looking at the end of warming we are looking at the end of change. Unprecedented (inconceivable) I tell you : )

  41. “dashing alarmist hopes of linking extreme weather events to global warming”

    “Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.”

    It seems to me that implicit in these quotes, and many others emanating from other CAGW promoting “scientists”, is a very real want and desire for there to be a link between “global warming” and “exceptional weather events”. Given that it has been established fairly conclusively that “scientists” usually find exactly what they go looking for, it should come as little surprise that this BDC is pedaling this malarkey.

  42. This is the coldest winter in about 20 years in the eastern part of the US. So, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen something like this. And we would expect with the warming climate to see fewer of this sort of winters but there will still be an occasional cold winter.

    How about the center part? Recent news of Chicago, Duluth, Green Bay all setting ‘all time record number of days below 0 F’.

    An I see they are moving the goalposts again with ‘expect to see, but still an occasional’. NO. CO2 is the ‘MAIN Driver’, which mean it was to override any other change.

    Goalposts just got moved from 2nd base to left center field.

  43. Weather underground?
    Bill Ayres?
    Or is that an accidental connection ?
    Masters removes any doubt that he is preaching, which Gods should we pray too, to avoid disturbing the weather?
    What sacrifice is necessary to appease this angered weather?
    Unprecedented? Since 30 seconds ago, if you have the attention span of a gnat, or the honesty of a scaremonger.

  44. What a PR con job. They have prepped for this question on variability to avoid the question of normal variation or cyclical variation in favor of totally unprecedented variation as an unproven product of climate change. It takes choreography and message management to maintain that diversion of emphasis on what variation means and implies. As in chemical reactions it takes a biased receptor to make the connection and guarantee the result for the initiator. Such biased reception gives feedback to the promoter even when it makes no sense and has no basis in fact.

  45. “Climate Change is the greatest threat to our national security” – Obama

    “Russia…is, without question, our number one geopolitical foe. They fight every cause for the world’s worst actor” – Mitt Romney

  46. Just darn, weather underground is so very useful for hurricane prediction. Masters has been as good as anyone I’ve seen with the models analysis WU has great presentation of historical tracks for the month that I like to help ballpark path probabilities. So this is my goto site for hurricanes.

    The CAGW meme drives me nuts and I can’t force myself to read to far into his blogs. Apparently he has a deep amen corner in blog space. Maybe Master’s trip through Hugo shook something loose that was better remaining attached. (My opinion a good story)

    I can’t fathom how someone intimate with the weakness of modeling past 4 days believes that climate can be modeled.

  47. Frank K. says:
    Folks – please remember. Every time you click on a link to “Weather Underground” you are supporting Jeff Masters’ alarmism. There are MUCH BETTER weather information sites on the internet (such as Accuweather.com) – use them instead.

    Please share others that you know about – especially ones that don’t go on about AGW. Right now I use Weatherbug, but they seem to like koolaid over there…

    Just read Accuweather’s statement on climate change – might take a deeper look.

    john robertson says:
    Weather underground?
    Bill Ayres?
    Or is that an accidental connection ?

    I recall reading that it was not, but I don’t remember where. Perhaps another reader can fill in?

  48. Fascinating,

    Dr. Jeff — sitting where he does — doesn’t mention the “near to” unprecedented nearly complete ice-coverage of the Great Lakes — about 90%

    I thought that AGW was supposed to lead to vanishing ice and snow with increasingly bad seasons for the ski-resorts and loss of the Maple Syrup industry in the US. None of those this year except the latter. The Maple Syrup crop is in trouble this year — but not because of too much warmth for the trees — but because the natural cycle which drives the sap of warm days and sub-freezing nights — has been obliterated by interminable strings of cold days and near-to-or-sub-zero nights — No warmth — No Sap runs.

  49. Jeff Masters’ baits people in with slick graphics and ease of use but includes his climate alarmist shtick in the process (full disclosure – I use it for trips). If it weren’t for Masters’ baiting, I would use the site all the time. It’s just hard to reconcile the two, i.e., climate alarmist and competent.

  50. ferdberple says:
    March 4, 2014 at 7:20 am

    Weather Underground’s Dr. Jeff Masters jumps the shark with the Voice of Russia:
    Expect the unprecedented
    ===========
    How can the coldest winter in 20 years be unprecedented if it was colder 20 years ago?

    .=============================================================
    Kind of reminds me of the news reports when George Bush Sr was running for reelection against Bill Clinton. There were a lot of items about the economy and they were always “the worst since…”. It might have been the “worst” since yesterday but they just had work that word in.

  51. Expect Climate Persistence
    Nature will continue to do what nature has been doing for millions of year. – i.e., persistence and variation with long term trends – regardless of what the models order. . e.g. see:
    Markonis, Y., and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climatic variability over time scales spanning nine orders of magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch cycles with Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, Surveys in Geophysics, 34 (2), 181–207, 2013.

    More rapes & murders is due to Hollywood – not Climate.

  52. Curious George says:
    March 4, 2014 at 8:07 am

    It fully adheres to the Voice of Russia’s standards of truthfulness and reliability, reminding me of Dr. Goebbels, the propaganda minister for the Third Reich.

    Hate speech!!!

  53. Masters & those of his ilk will be trofimed, in the fullness of time. Sooner than later is my wish.

    In 1964, physicist Andrei Sakharov spoke out against Trofim Lysenko in the General Assembly of the Academy of Sciences: He is responsible for the shameful backwardness of Soviet biology and of genetics in particular, for the dissemination of pseudo-scientific views, for adventurism, for the degradation of learning, and for the defamation, firing, arrest, even death, of many genuine scientists. The Soviet press was soon filled with anti-Lysenkoite articles and appeals for the restoration of scientific methods to all fields of biology and agricultural science. In 1965Lysenko was removed from his post as director of the Institute of Genetics at the Academy of Sciences and restricted to an experimental farm in Moscow’s Lenin Hills (the Institute itself was soon dissolved). After Khrushchev’s dismissal in 1964, the president of the Academy of Sciences declared that Lysenko’s immunity to criticism had officially ended. An expert commission was sent to investigate records kept at Lysenko’s experimental farm. A few months later, a devastating critique of Lysenko was made public.[citation needed] As a result, Lysenko was immediately disgraced in the Soviet Union, although his work continued to have impact in China for many years after. Lysenko died in 1976.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trofim_Lysenko#After_Stalin

    Will there be a Wikipedia entry CAGWarmists#After_Obama?

  54. Jimbo says:
    March 4, 2014 at 1:38 pm
    “SOMEONE CALL 911!
    A new paper says that global warming will lead to more rapes and murders.”

    Yes; if you estimate the number of rapes now and add the 900,000 or what they say will be added til 2100 it’s a 1.5 per mille rise. I used current German rape rates as baseline, assuming it’s that level all across the world.
    Amazing what you can write papers about.
    They are also assuming a 2 deg C rise til 2100; according to Schellnhuber that’ll do humanity in for good so I wouldn’t worry about the 1.5 per mille rape rise.

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