What kind of tendency such kind of things show if we take 10-20 years for example?
This is the coldest winter in about 20 years in the eastern part of the US. So, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen something like this. And we would expect with the warming climate to see fewer of this sort of winters but there will still be an occasional cold winter.
Does that actually show that climate change is not that predictable as many say?
That is for sure. Expect the unprecedented – that is kind of my watch words, when you disturb the climate like we have, we are going to see a lot of crazy weather events and that sure has been the case over the last few years.
h/t to Marc Morano
Apparently Dr. Masters pays no attention to the IPCC SREX report ( IPCC Special Report on Extremes PDF)
From Chapter 4 of the SREX:
- “There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change”
- “The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados”
- “The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses”
And in the IPCC summary for policymakers, they give low confidence to tropical storm activity being connected to climate change, and don’t mention mesoscale events like tornadoes and thunderstorms at all. Similarly, they give low confidence to drought and flood attribution.
They’ve only talked about heat waves and precipitation events being connected. From Page 4 of the SPM:
Now with two IPCC reports making no connection, and with Nature’s editorial in 2012 dashing alarmist hopes of linking extreme weather events to global warming saying:
Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.
There’s simply no connection between droughts, hurricanes, thunderstorms, flash floods, tornadoes and “climate change”. There’s no mention of colder, more snowy winters either.