Statistical flaws in science: p-values and false positives

To make science better, watch out for statistical flaws by Tom Siegfried First of two parts As Winston Churchill once said about democracy, it’s the worst form of government, except for all the others. Science is like that. As commonly practiced today, science is a terrible way for gathering knowledge about nature, especially in messy…

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The Overselling of Climate Modeling Predictability on Multi-Decadal time Scales in the 2013 IPCC WG1 Report – Annex 1 Is Not Scientifically Robust

Guest essay by Roger A. Pielke Sr. Introduction I have posted in the past how the development of multi-decadal regional climate projections (predictions) to give to policymakers and the impact communities is a huge waste of time and resources; e.g. see The Huge Waste Of Research Money In Providing Multi-Decadal Climate Projections For The New…

Proper Cherry Picking

Guest essay by Johannes Herbst There is a much discussed graph in the blogosphere from ‘Tamino’ (Grant Foster), which aims to prove that there is no delay or pause or decline in global warming. He states: Twelve of sixteen were hotter than expected even according to the still-warming prediction, and all sixteen were above the…