The Week That Was: 2014-02-01 (February 1, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Whatever the UK is deciding to do vis-a-vis climate will have no impact on your climate. It will have a profound impact on your economy.” Richard Lindzen in testimony to the UK House of Commons, Energy and Climate Change Committee Number of the Week: 4%
State of the Union: On an unusually cold Washington night, President Obama gave this year’s State of the Union address.
Environmental groups expressed disappointment because he did not outline strong measures to “fight” global warming, which is not occurring. To understand his administration, one should not only pay attention to his words, but also realize what he omits and what his administration is doing.
Mr. Obama correctly stated that climate change is a fact. It has been ongoing for hundreds of millions of years and will continue long after he is gone. There is little governments can do to stop it. The great fear of global warming was artificially contrived. In its claim that carbon dioxide emissions endanger public health and welfare, the EPA claimed its findings are supported by science and cited three lines of evidence.
1.) EPA claims a distinct human fingerprint — a hot spot in the atmosphere centered over the tropics at about 33,000 feet. It does not exist. Satellites and weather balloons have failed to find it.
2.) EPA claims late 20th century surface global warming was unprecedented and dangerous. It was not. A similar warming occurred in the early 20th century, which was not associated with carbon dioxide. Any late 20th century surface warming stopped 16 years ago.
3.) EPA claims climate models are reliable. Climate models failed to predict that global warming would stop and greatly exaggerate the warming over the past 30 plus years.
The EPA finding that carbon dioxide endangers human health and welfare is based on failing science and sub-prime climate models that are wrong.
Mr. Obama bragged about the increase in production of oil and natural gas in the US. He is fortunate to be President during the US energy revolution. Extraction of oil and natural gas from dense shale is occurring with no help from the Administration. It is occurring on private or state controlled lands and driven by private initiatives. According to 2012 statistics compiled by the Energy Information Administration, the production of oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and coal from Federal lands and waters all fell. The difference between what is occurring on non-Federal lands and Federal lands demonstrates the economically punitive policies of this Administration. Yet, according to reports, Mr. Obama is moving forward to further restrict oil development and mining on Federal lands.
Mr. Obama’s administration is engaged on an economically destructive war on coal. Both the EPA and the Department of Energy falsely asserted that carbon capture and storage is commercially practical. Where it has been tried, it has been under highly specialized circumstances that are not generally available – such as using carbon dioxide (CO2) to enhance recovery of oil from nearby wells. If there are no nearby wells, this application does not work.
The EPA has declared that the shutting of coal-fired power plants is not due EPA regulations but due to coal-fired plants being economically uncompetitive with natural gas-fired plants. This is partially true. In some regions of the country where coal is expensive, such as Kentucky natural gas is more economical for generating electricity. In regions where coal is inexpensive, such as southern Illinois and the western states such as Wyoming, the opposite is true. The EPA’s CO2 emissions standards on new coal-fired power plants prevent the construction of the latest, more efficient designs for coal-fired plants. The proposed standards for existing coal-fired power plants will force the closure of more plants, many in areas where natural gas is not generally available. All this will serve to drive up the costs of electricity to industry and other consumers.
Western Europe has led the fight on global warming/climate change with dire economic results. Those industries that can are fleeing high electricity costs brought on by a big commitments on renewable energy. According to Rupert Darwall, estimates by Eurostat and the US EIA on comparable electricity costs, in 2012 electricity was about 84% more costly for industrial firms and 65% more costly for households in Europe than in the US.
Countries such as Germany and the UK face unpleasant choices – subsidize electricity costs for industries or face enormous job losses. The promised Green Jobs are unsustainable without continued government subsidies and/or mandates. Now, President Obama desires to lead the US into adopting similar economically disastrous policies, without bothering to obtain Congressional approval.
Mr. Obama bragged about the increases in renewable energy, particularly solar power. According to a January 2014 report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the total electricity production from solar amounted to 0.2% of US electricity consumption, up ten times from what it was in 2008. By way of contrast, electric production by lumber and paper mills burning their wood waste is 4.5 times the current solar production, without the need for expensive subsidies and mandates.
Mr. Obama’s administration created the Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon. From the Council of Economic Advisers to the Department of the Treasury, eleven government entities are involved in the creation of this contrived concept. These eleven entities blatantly ignore the tremendous benefits of enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide to agriculture and the environment.
In August 2013, the White House reported that in FY 2013 US government climate change expenditures amounted to $22.6 Billion. Based on previous reports by the GAO and the Congressional Research Service, this brings the total expenditures to over $165 Billion since 1993. With all that money, we did invent some very good instruments to measure climate change, particularly from satellites; but those and other instruments are largely ignored. We now have reports that the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean array of buoys is failing for lack of funding. These buoys monitor the warming and cooling events in the equatorial Pacific, known respectively as El Niño and La Niña, major climate events.
Where has most of the $165 Billion gone? Much has been spent on failing science, failing climate models, failing alternative energy policies, and extreme exaggerations of the human influence on climate.
Clearly, SEPP will have many issues to address in the next few years. See links under The State of the Union, Social Benefits of Carbon, Measurement Issues, EPA and other Regulators on the March, Washington’s Control of Energy and Article # 2.
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Social Costs (Benefits) of Carbon: On January 27 Fred Singer and Ken Haapala separately submitted their comments on the so-called Social Costs of Carbon (SCC) to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which is under the White House. Singer represented Virginia Scientists and Engineers for Energy and Environment and Haapala represented SEPP.
Singer pointed out the failings of the three Integrated Assessment Models being used to establish the SCC, with particular emphasis to the detailed critique by MIT Prof. Robert Pindyck, who states that the models are largely meaningless (TWTW Aug 24, Nov 23, and Nov 30, 2013). Singer also discussed the tremendous economic benefits that occurred by replacing human and animal power with fossil fuels, as reported in a study by Management Information Systems headed by Roger Bezdek, prepared for the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity.
Haapala discussed the absurdity of the concept of the social cost of carbon. All life on this planet is carbon based, does life have a social cost? He also discussed the fact that the scientific basis of the EPA endangerment finding is imploding [see above], and Craig Idso’s study on the benefits of carbon dioxide. The Bezdek and Idso studies are different but complementary. The former discusses the benefits in the use of fossil fuels, which result in CO2 emissions. The latter discusses the direct benefits of enhanced concentrations of atmospheric CO2. However, it is doubtful that anyone in an important position in this ideologically blinded administration will publically recognize the significance of these studies. See links under Social Benefits of Carbon.
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A Step Forward, A Step Back? Marcia McNutt, Editor-in-Chief of Science wrote that for preclinical studies the magazine is adopting the standards recommended by the U.S. National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) for transparency. Further, it will ask editors and reviews in other disciplines to identify papers that demonstrate transparency and instill confidence in the results. This may be used to take additional steps for implementing reproducibility guidelines. Importantly, with the advice from the American Statistical Association, and others, it will be adding members to its Board of Reviewing Editors from the statistical community to examine methods of data analysis. Hopefully, this may prevent publications of papers with internal statistical errors, such as what occurred with Mr. Mann’s hockey-stick.
On a disappointing note, as linked in the January 18, 2014 TWTW, Robert Bradley had a post on Master Resource discussing an October 1, 2009 article by Richard Kerr, long time writer at Science. “What Happened to Global Warming? Scientists Say Just Wait a Bit.” The article discussed a ten year pause in global warming as indicated in the Hadley Centre – Climatic Research Unit temperature data. The link has been taken down and the article is no longer listed under the author index. See links to the new Science policy under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Not All Watts Are Created Equal: Government agencies brag about their policy successes, however, some when doing so make statements that mislead the general public. For example, the latest “Energy Infrastructure Update” report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Office of Energy Projects promotes the increase in capacity of renewables, namely wind, biomass, solar, etc. And how the installed capacity is exceeding nuclear and oil. [Due to the expense of oil, less than 1% of electricity is generated by oil, and it is used predominantly as a back-up, or in isolated situations.] The problem with these reports is they used installed nameplate capacity, not annual capacity or, more importantly, dependable capacity, which is usually termed as dispatchable capacity.
It is worth comparing nuclear power plants with wind. Nuclear can generate power 24/7 and the US fleet averages over 90% of nameplate capacity over the course of a year. It is only shut down for scheduled maintenance, thus the capacity can be considered 100% dispatchable. Based on reports from existing facilities, wind farms seldom exceed 30% of nameplate capacity, often less. Further, they experience occasions when no power is generated. The Columbia River Gorge discussed in last weeks TWTW is one example. A similar analysis can be done with coal-fired or natural gas combined cycle power plants. The results are similar. It may be useful to ask the bureaucrats who write these reports, when you are riding an elevator or the subway, which type of electrical generation would you prefer? See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
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Keystone II: Once again, the State Department found that the northern leg of the Keystone pipeline that is designed to bring oil from the oil sands of Canada, and some oil from the Bakken formation in North Dakota, to refineries on the Gulf Coast will have no major adverse impact on the environment. Once again, the environmentalists are screaming environmental disaster. Once again, the report will undergo an extensive public comment period and review. Once again, many in Washington are demonstrating their cavalier disregard for projects that have been demonstrated to provide jobs and add to general prosperity, without government subsidies and mandates. It has been over five years. See links under Washington’s Control of Energy.
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Number of the Week: 4% For some time, TWTW has pointed out that the map of temperature trends prepared by the National Space Science and Technology Center at University of Alabama in Huntsville, using the satellite data, shows pronounced warming only in the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere, with little or no warming elsewhere over the entire satellite record. Writing in Watts Up With That, Willis Eschenbach takes this a step further. He analyzes the data for five groups, according to latitude: Polar — Arctic and Antarctic 67° to 90° North and South, Extratropics 23° N & S to 67° N & S, and Tropics 23° N to 23° S. He calculates that surface area for each is as follows: Polar 8%; Extratropics 52%; and Tropics 40%. [The satellite data does not completely cover the Polar Regions.]
Willis then calculates temperature trends for these five regions and compares the trends with actual temperatures reported by UAH. Over the entire temperature record Eschenbach finds a significant warming trend only for the Arctic – 4% of the globe. Global warming of 4% of the globe! This is not a stirring rallying cry for a war against global warming, or coal. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Book Review: ‘Windfall’ by McKenzie Funk
From politicians to profiteers, some people look at the effects of climate change and see dollar signs.
By Philip Delves Broughton, WSJ, Jan 28, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304632204579340560508887126?mod=ITP_opinion_0
[SEPP Comment: Covering the climate war profiteers.]
2. Europe’s Stark Renewables Lesson
Like Frankenstein, the EU has created a renewable-energy monster it does not know how to tame.
By Rupert Darwall, WSJ, Jan 28, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303553204579348470302047850
3. Big Oil Companies Struggle to Justify Soaring Project Costs
Chevron, Exxon and Shell Spent More Than $120 Billion in 2013 to Boost Oil and Gas Output, but Production Is Down
By Daniel Gilbert and Justin Schenck, WSJ, Jan 28, 2014
4. Shell Plans Boat to Tap Gas Fields
Billion-Dollar Vessel Would Chill Gas and Pump It Into Tankers
By Justin Scheck, WSJ, Jan 28, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303277704579348333445778984?mod=ITP_pageone_2
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
Cherry picking and the tale of the Siberian larch trees
Stephen McIntyre responds to Keith Briffa’s allegations
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Jan 28, 2014
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/cherry-picking-and-the-tale-of-the-siberian-larch-data.aspx
[SEPP Comment: A lengthy post of Briffa of Climategate Fame ignoring tree-ring data that does not support his hockey-stick.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Climate Change
NZClimate Truth Newsletter NO 325
By Vincent Gray, NCTSP, Jan 30, 2014
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/climate-change.html
The published projections [of the IPCC] fail completely to take account of the inherent uncertainties of natural variability which is supposedly incorporated in them.
New study suggests global warming decreases storm activity and extreme weather
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 25, 2014
Societal Benefits of Fossil Energy to be at Least 50 Times Greater than Perceived Costs of Carbon
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Jan 31, 2014
Should We Be Worried?
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Jan 29, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/29/should-we-be-worried/
Defending the Orthodoxy
Met Office New Decadal Forecast
By Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, Jan 30, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/met-office-new-decadal-forecast/
Link to the forecast: Decadal forecast
By Staff Writers, Met Office, January 2014
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Closing the Books on 2013: Another Year, Another Nail in the Coffin of Disastrous Global Warming
By Patrick Michaels and Paul Knappenberger, CATO, Jan 27, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Far fewer Billion Dollar weather disasters than in the recent past.]
Met Office Is Accused Of A ‘Warm Bias’ In Annual Forecasts
By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF, Jan 30, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.org/met-office-accused-warm-bias-annual-forecasts/
Met Office global forecasts too warm in 13 of last 14 years
By Paul Hudson, BBC, Jan 27, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Climate Change: A Serious Threat to Science
By Marita Noon, Townhall, Jan 27, 2014
Procrastinating About The Global Warming ‘Pause’
By Doug Hoffman, The Resilient Earth, Via GWPF, Jan 26, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.org/procrastinating-global-warming-pause/
‘Social Cost’ of Carbon vs. Climate Science
By Chip Knappenberger, Master Resource, Jan 31, 2014
http://www.masterresource.org/2014/01/social-cost-carbon-vs-climate-science/#more-29506
The evidence for climate change is increasingly challenged
By Lord Turnbull, Letters, Financial Times, Jan 30, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Social Benefits of Carbon
Efforts to cap CO2 emissions are adverse to human health and welfare
By Craig Idso, The Hill, Jan 30, 2014
Response to the SOTU address: Efforts to cap CO2 emissions are adverse to human health and welfare
By Craig Idso, WUWT, Jan 30, 2014
The Positive Externalities of Carbon Dioxide
By Craig Idso, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change, Oct 21, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/reprint/the_positive_externalities_of_carbon_dioxide.html
Societal Benefits of Fossil Energy to be at Least 50 Times Greater than Perceived Costs of Carbon
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Jan 31, 2014
The Social Costs of Carbon? No, the Social Benefits of Carbon
Prepared for the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity
Lead Writer, Roger Bezdek, Management Information Systems, Inc. January 2014
http://www.americaspower.org/sites/default/files/Social_Cost_of_Carbon.pdf
At Last: A Report on the Social Benefits of Carbon
By Marlo Lewis, Cooler Heads, Jan 22, 2014
http://www.globalwarming.org/2014/01/22/at-last-a-report-on-the-social-benefits-of-carbon/
[SEPP Comment: The reports by Craig Idso have focused on the social benefits of carbon.]
Effects of Increased C02 on Woody Plant Pests
By Staff Writers, SPPI, Jan 29, 2014
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/effects_of_increased_c02_on_woody_plant_pests.html
Link to report: Effects of Increased C02 on Woody Plant Pests
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Jan 29, 2014
http://www.co2science.org/subject/h/summaries/herbivoreswoodyplants.php.
Better living through carbon conversion chemistry
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 31, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/31/better-living-through-carbon-conversion-chemistry/
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Picture of how our climate is affected by greenhouse gases is a ‘cloudy’ one
By Staff Writers, Jerusalem (SPX), Jan 30, 2014
[SEPP Comment: But the IPCC is 95% certain of something!]
Seeking a Common Ground
Science magazine: Demanding reproducibility up front
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 26, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/26/science-magazine-demanding-reproducibility-up-front/
Link to editorial: Reproducibility
By Marcia McNutt, Editor in Chief, Science, Jan 17, 2014
http://www.sciencemagazinedigital.org/sciencemagazine/17_january_2014?pg=9#pg9
One small step for Science
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 26, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/1/26/one-small-step-for-science.html
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Long-Term Effects of Elevated CO2 on Plant-Herbivore Interactions
Reference: Stiling, P., Moon, D., Rossi, A., Forkner, R., Hungate, B.A., Day, F.P., Schroeder, R.E. and Drake, B. 2013. Direct and legacy effects of long-term elevated CO2 on fine root growth and plant-insect interactions. New Phytologist 200: 788-795.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jan/28jan2014a1.html
In the eternal war between earth’s plants and the herbivorous insects that feed upon them, the ongoing increase in the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration is proving to be a powerful secret weapon, which is helping the planet’s vegetation to sustain the impressive worldwide greening of the earth that continues apace, growing ever stronger year by year.
Simulating the Trigger of the Onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon
Reference: Sabeerali, C.T., Dandi, A.R., Dhakate, A., Salunke, K., Mahapatra, S. and Rao, S.A. 2013. Simulation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in the latest CMIP5 coupled GCMs. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118: 4401-4420.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jan/28jan2014a2.html
The World’s Longest-Running Tropical Sponge Study
Reference: Kelmo, F., Bell, J.J. and Attrill, M.J. 2013. Tolerance of sponge assemblages to temperature anonamalies: Resilience and proliferation of sponges following the 1997-8 El-Niño Southern Oscillation. PLOS ONE 8: e76441.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jan/28jan2014a3.html
Two Decades of Overestimated Global Warming
Reference: Fyfe, J.C., Gillett, N.P. and Zwiers, F.W. 2013. Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years. Nature Climate Change 3: 767-769.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jan/29jan2014a4.html
Models v. Observations
Another Year, Another Nail in the CAGW Coffin (Now Includes December Data)
By Werner Brozek, Edited By Just The Facts, WUWT, Jan 25, 2014
Where next for climate policy?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 30, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/1/30/where-next-for-climate-policy.html
Measurement Issues
El Niño sea monitoring system may fail – half dead already
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 28, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/28/el-nino-sea-monitoring-system-may-fail-half-dead-already/
Link to article: El Niño monitoring system in failure mode
By Jeff Tollefson, Nature, Jan 23, 2014
http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-monitoring-system-in-failure-mode-1.14582
Important study on temperature adjustments: ‘homogenization…can lead to a significant overestimate of rising trends of surface air temperature.’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 29, 2014
Inconsistencies in NCDC Historical Temperature Analysis?
By Christopher Burt, Weather Extremes, Jun 6, 2012 [H/t Ken Towe]
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=75
Changing Weather
Coldest SOTU ????
By Staff Writers, ICECAP, Jan 27, 2014
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/coldest_sotu/
Includes a second forecast by Roy Spencer
Atlanta’s 2″ catastrophic snowfall
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jan 30, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/01/30/atlantas-2-catastrophic-snowfall/
[SEPP Comment: A bit of humor for TWTW readers in Russia.]
Baby, it’s cold outside, but globe is warming: Our view
2 things to keep in mind as you try to square your frozen driveway with a warming world.
Editorial, USA Today, Jan 30, 2014 [H/t Sam Karnick]
Changing Climate
Australia has lowest number of tropical cyclones in 1500 years?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, January 31, 2014
Link to paper: Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550–1,500 years
By Haig, Nott & Reichart, Nature, Jan 29, 2014
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7485/full/nature12882.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20140130
[SEPP Comment: Nova is appropriately skeptical.]
Changing Seas
What to do about The Flood Next Time
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 27, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/27/what-to-do-about-the-flood-next-time/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Inconvenient study: Arctic was warmer than the present during the Medieval Warm Period
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 28, 2014
Early 20th century Arctic warming
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jan 27, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/01/27/early-20th-century-arctic-warming/
Arctic Sea Ice in Century-Long Decline
U of T scientist uses long-lived algae to track annual changes in northern climate back to 1300s
By Lanna Crucefix, Univ. of Toronto Magazine, Jan 20, 2014 [H/t Charles Dunkl]
[SEPP Comment: It would be interesting to see if the data tracks a warming in the early part of the 20th century when many observers were reporting a decline in the Arctic sea ice. See link immediately above.]
NASA Radar Maps the Winter Pace of Iceland’s Glaciers
By Staff Writers, Pasadena CA (JPL), Jan 29, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/NASA_Radar_Maps_the_Winter_Pace_of_Icelands_Glaciers_999.html
Churchill polar bears eat more caribou and geese now than in 1968 because there are more caribou and geese, new research reveals
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 26, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Studies implying that a change in diet is stress related to melting Arctic ice are pure speculation.]
Changing Earth
Rainforests in Far East shaped by humans for the last 11,000 years
By Staff Writers, Belfast, UK (SPX), Jan 28, 2014
Acidic Waters
Ocean acidification research should increase focus on species’ ability to adapt
By Staff Writers, University of British Columbia, No date
Link to paper: Evolution in an acidifying ocean
By Sunday, et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, December 2013
http://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/abstract/S0169-5347%2813%2900274-7
[SEPP Comment: Species are able to adapt to changes in atmospheric CO2? They have been doing it for hundreds of millions of years.]
Lowering Standards
Unsettling the “Settled Science” of Climate Change
By Simon Carr, Gallery Guido, Jan 30, 2014 [H/t Bishop Hill]
http://order-order.com/2014/01/30/sketch-unsettling-the-settled-science-of-climate-change/
Climate science is for second-raters says world’s greatest atmospheric physicist
By James Delingpole, Telegraph, UK, Jan 29, 2014 [H/t Cooler Heads]
[SEPP Comment: The headline may be extreme.]
A report on the AR5 hearings: ‘Unsettling the “Settled Science” of Climate Change’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 30, 2014
Defence of the realm
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 31, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/1/31/defence-of-the-realm.html
[SEPP Comment: The Royal Society chimes in.]
Walport’s reverse thinking
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 27, 2014
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/1/27/walports-reverse-thinking.html
[SEPP Comment: It is inconceivable that Britain’s chief scientific adviser could possibly be wrong, especially inconceivable by him.]
Scientific Advisor or Court Jester?
By Ben Pile, Spiked, Jan 31, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/scientific-adviser-or-court-jester/#.UuvMDBBdXCt
The job of the chief scientist is not as much to inform the debate as to supply it with banal soundbytes.
State of the Union
‘Climate change is a fact,’ Obama declares
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jan 28, 2014
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/196757-obama-climate-change-is-a-fact
Obama defends ‘all of the above’ energy in speech
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jan 28, 2014
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/196770-obama-defends-all-of-the-above-energy-in-speech
Schism between Obama, environmentalists over energy policy
By Dina Cappiello and Matthew Daly, AP, Jan 30, 2014
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/world/57472601-68/obama-energy-letter-climate.html.csp
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Major German Daily ‘Die Welt’ Wildly Exaggerates Western Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt By 1100 Times!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 31, 2014
Biomarker for stress hormones in polar bears, wildlife affected by global climate change
By Staff Writers, Amherst MA (SPX), Jan 28, 2014
[SEPP Comment: How do they separate natural levels of stress from climate change stress and what part of climate change stress can be attributed to humans?]
Changing Climate Kills Magellanic Penguin Chicks
By Thomas Sumner, Science, Jan 29, 2014
http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/01/changing-climate-kills-magellanic-penguin-chicks
[SEPP Comment: No hard data on weather events, etc. A three year average is not significant.]
UN warns climate change is drowning Senegal
By Staff Writers, Dakar (AFP), Jan 28, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/UN_warns_climate_change_is_drowning_Senegal_999.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Claim Global Warming Causes Cold “An Absurd PIK Construct On The Verge Of Extinction”, German Scientists Say
Absurd PIK construct on the verge of extinction: North American cold spell in January 2014 was not the result of global warming
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt Translated, edited by P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 29, 2014
[SEPP Comment: More on the claim that heat causes lack of heat (cold).]
Dire signs from a warming world
By Eugene Robinson, Washington Post, Jan 27, 2014
Another insane cold wave — not the infamous “polar vortex ” but its evil twin — is bringing sub-zero and single-digit temperatures to much of the nation. And global warming may be even more extreme, and potentially more catastrophic, than climate scientists had feared.
[SEPP Comment: What is the evil twin of a polar vortex – a tropical vortex? Does that cause freezing weather?]
Solid rock
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 25, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/1/25/solid-rock.html
[SEPP Comment: The claimed rock solid science is a bit like quicksilver.]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Al Gore once again suggests ‘fertility management’ to fight global warming
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Jan 27, 2014
Questioning European Green
Schäuble warns green policies are harming German economy
By Peter Spiegel, Financial Times, Jan 28, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Critics charged Brussels with putting economic growth ahead of climate change concerns; the EU has long been the strongest advocate internationally for tough environmental standards and a retreat by Europe on the issue could have major implications for the global debate.
[SEPP Comment: Tough environmental standards or willful ignorance?]
The Costs of Green Dreams
IEA: Energy Woes Will Hobble Europe for 20 Years
By Walter Russell Mead and Staff, American Interest, Jan 31, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
One of biggest stories of this decade is the steady erosion of the global green movement, which has almost entirely been driven by the incoherence of green policy proposals and the serial failure of signature policies. Yet the response of the mainstream green movement to critics who point these facts out is “Shut up, you evil science deniers.”
Coalition freezes carbon levy to curb energy bills in shock U-turn that signals green ambitions are being scrapped
By Jon Rees, Financial Mail, Jan 28, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Dominic Lawson: The Game’s Up For Renewable Energy
By Dominic Lawson, The Sunday Times, Via GWPF, Jan 26, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.org/dominic-lawson-games-renewable-energy/
Europe Flees Economy-Destroying Green Initiatives While Obama Presses On
By Megan Toombs, Cornwall Alliance, Jan 29, 2014
Patience of Barton Moss residents reaches limits
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 25, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Save us from environmentalist “saviours”.]
Proof wind turbines take thousands off your home: Value of houses within 1.2 miles of large wind farms slashed by 11%, study finds
Study by LSE found value of homes close to wind farms slashed by 11%
Home that costs £250,000 would lose £27,000 in value
Homes as far at two-and-a-half miles away could be reduced by 3%
By Sanchez Manning, Mail, UK, Jan 27, 2014
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Fearing they’ll ‘be next,’ industries unite against Obama’s climate change rules
By Ben Goad, The Hill, Jan 30, 2014
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/196968-business-plans-major-pushback-on-energy-regulation
Study: Green roofs suck at solving global warming
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 31, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/31/study-green-roofs-suck/
Warmism Comes Down With A Chill
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, Jan 28, 2014
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/01/warmism-feels-chill-wind/
Green Jobs
New Study Finds US Solar Jobs Grew 20% Last Year
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Jan 29, 2014
http://www.solardaily.com/reports/New_Study_Finds_US_Solar_Jobs_Grew_20%25_Last_Year_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Insignificant compared with job from the oil and gas revolution. What would the growth be without subsidies and mandates?]
Funding Issues
Reduce GHGs or Increase Energy Access?
By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Jan 31, 2014
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2014/01/reduce-ghgs-or-increase-energy-access.html
[SEPP Comment: US government policy of anti-fossil fuel may thwart goals of promoting electricity generation in Africa.]
Litigation Issues
European justice?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 29, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/1/29/european-justice.html
Link to Press Release: European Court of Justice condemns EPAW
By Mark Duchamp and Pat Swords, EPAW, Jan 29, 2014
http://www.epaw.org/press/European_Court_of_Justice_condemns_EPAW.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Does the court have the power to select which organizations are legal entities and which are not?]
Shell gives up on Arctic drilling for 2014
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jan 30, 2014
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/196955-shell-wont-pursue-arctic-drilling-in-2014
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Climate precrimes
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 27, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/1/27/climate-precrimes.html
[SEPP Comment: A short, witty comment for those who proclaim a need for a carbon tax based on speculative results from climate models.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The Solar-Induced Death Spiral
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 28, 2014
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/the-solar-induced-death-spiral/
Wind industry revives push to extend key tax credit
By Zack Colman, Washington Examiner, Jan 30, 2014
Gone With the Wind: Weak Returns Cripple German Renewables
By Gunther Latsch, Anne Seith and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel International, Translated by Charles Hawley, Jan 30, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Daldorf’s findings are surprising given the substantial subsidies the state has provided to renewable energies over the years. The guaranteed feed-in tariff for a kilowatt hour of electricity generated by a renewable energy technology currently averages 17 cents. That is several times the market price.
EPA and other Regulators on the March
The War on Coal: Collateral Damage Will Hit Non-Coal States, Too
By Filip Jolevski and David Kreutzer, The Foundry, Jan 31, 2014
http://blog.heritage.org/2014/01/31/war-coal-collateral-damage-will-hit-non-coal-states/
Link to research paper: EPA Power Plant Regulations: A Backdoor Energy Tax
By Nicolas Loris, Kevin Dayaratna and David W. Kreutzer, Heritage, Dec 5, 2013
[SEPP Comment: NEMS – National Energy Modeling System]
War On Coal to Increase your Cost of Electricity
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 31, 2014
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/01/31/war-on-coal-to-increase-your-cost-of-electricity/
EPA’s Wood-Burning Stove Ban Has Chilling Consequences For Many Rural People
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Jan 29, 2014
Asian ozone pollutes Hawaii and USA west coast – varies with climatic shifts
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 27, 2014
[SEPP Comment: What will the EPA do to protect Americans from this pollution? Ban coal-fired power plants in China? The article inappropriately links changing atmospheric wind patterns with human-caused global warming/climate change.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
10 Reasons Intermittent Renewables Are A Problem
By Gail Tverberg, Investing.com, Jan 22, 2014 [H/t NCPA]
[SEPP Comment: Addresses universal problems.]
Energy price gap with the US to hurt Europe for ‘at least 20 years’
By Pilita Clark, Financial Times, Jan 29, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
US vs. Europe: Energy battle heats up
By: Daniel Yergin, CNBC, Jan 27, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101365772#_gus
DAVOS is billed as the annual World Economic Forum and focuses on global politics, economics and social issues. It attracts international business and political leaders.
Germany Losing European Friends in Energy Switch, Gabriel Says
By Brian Parkin and Rainer Buergin, Bloomberg, Jan 30, 2014
Germany First in Europe to Tax Consumer Use of Clean-Energy (1)
By Stefan Nicola and Marc Roca, Bloomberg, Jan 24, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Energy Issues — US
American wind to be stored in Canada
By Susan Kraemer, Wind Energy Update, Jan 27, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Will the administration try to slow-roll this as it has slow-rolled the Keystone pipeline from crossing the US-Canada border.]
America reaches an era of powering down
By Terence Jeffrey, Washington Examiner, Jan 29, 2014
Washington’s Control of Energy
Keystone XL oil pipeline clears big hurdle
Pressure grows on Obama to OK project
By Ben Wolfgang, The Washington Times, Jan 31, 2014
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/31/keystone-oil-pipeline-clears-significant-hurdle/
Positive Environmental Report Means Admin Would Need Other Rationale to Kill Keystone
Environmental groups demand review of all tar sands pipelines for carbon pollution before a final Keystone judgment.
By Bill Straub, PJ Media, Jan 31, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Obama to further restrict federal land from oil production
By Dave Boyer, Washington Times, Jan 29, 2014
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/obama-to-further-restrict-federal-land-from-oil-pr/
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Triplett: Not ‘hope and change,’ but real jobs in oil patch
Employment booming in the energy sector
By William C. Triplett II Washington Times, Jan 29, 2014
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/triplett-not-hope-and-change-but-real-jobs/
Harper: A fracking good story missed by the media
By Christopher Harper, Washington Times, Jan 29, 2014 [H/t Cooler Heads]
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/the-united-states-has-become-the-largest-producer-/
Return of King Coal?
ACCCE’s Duncan discusses coal’s ability to compete as grid technologies evolve
Transcript by Staff Writers, EETV, Jan 30, 2014
http://www.eenews.net/tv/videos/1779/transcript
The Coal, Hard Truth
China’s New Coal 6 Times Higher than Wind, 27 Times Higher than Solar in 2013
By Armond Cohen, Breakthrough Institute, Jan 23, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/the-coal-hard-truth/
Coal Will ‘Dominate Global Power Sector For Decades’
By Annabel Hepworth, The Australian, Via GWPF, Jan 30, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.org/coal-dominate-global-power-sector-decades/
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Market Disruptor: Nuclear Restarts Spells Trouble for LNG
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Jan 31, 2014
[SEPP Comment: The cost of importing LNG by Japan may force a re-start of the nuclear power plants in Japan. According to the report, the estimated cost of liquefaction, transportation, and re-gasification is $4 to $5 per MMBTU]
Boxer: ‘Unacceptable delay’ in U.S. Fukushima response
By Ben Goad, The Hill, Jan 30, 2014
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/196987-boxer-unacceptable-delay-in-us-fukushima-response
[SEPP Comment: Does the Senator know the difference between an earthquake and a tidal wave?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Solar Provides 0.2% of Electric Supply–Up From 0.02% Before Obama
By Terence Jeffrey, CNS News, Jan 29, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/solar-provides-02-electric-supply-002-obama
Link to report: Monthly Energy Review
By Staff Writers, EIA, January 2914
http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf
Renewables Provide 37 Percent Of New US Generating Capacity in 2013
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Jan 30, 2014
Scotland’s offshore wind farms investment halved
By Andrew Whitaker, Scotsman, Jan 28, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scotland-s-offshore-wind-farms-investment-halved-1-3283585
The UK was an offshore wind leader in 2013, but how long will it last?
By Mat Hope, Carbon Brief, Jan 30, 2014
[SEPP Comment: If they realized the actual costs, including required back-up, how many rate payers would want to see their nation be the international leader in expensive, unreliable offshore wind farms?]
Active Power Control of Wind Turbines Can Improve Power Grid Reliability
By Staff Writers, Golden CO (SPX), Jan 29, 2014
The study, “Active Power Controls from Wind Power: Bridging the Gaps”, finds that wind power can support the power system by adjusting its power output to enhance system reliability.
[SEPP Comment: Does not address the major issues of periods of no production and the need to make quick demands on required back-ups.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Boeing and UAE To Look at Biofuels From Desert Plants
By Staff Writers, Abu Dhabi UAE (SPX), Jan 23, 2014
Iceland drilling creates world’s first magma-based geothermal system
By Staff Writers, Riverside, Calif. (UPI), Jan 24, 2013
California Dreaming
California Energy Update: Part IV
By Wayne Lusvardi, Master Resource, Jan 30, 2014
http://www.masterresource.org/2014/01/california-energy-update-iv/#more-29457
Health, Energy, and Climate
Hey NYTimes: Are we really “giving ourselves cancer?” Amazing scare piece.
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Jan 31, 2014
http://acsh.org/2014/01/hey-nytimes-really-giving-cancer-amazing-scare-piece/
New study tries to link Alzheimer’s disease and DDT; media thinks it succeeded
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Jan 28, 2014
http://acsh.org/2014/01/new-study-tries-link-alzheimers-disease-ddt-media-thinks-succeeded/
Oh Mann!
Mann versus Steyn
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jan 26, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/01/26/mann-versus-steyn/
Environmental Industry
India’s Essar sues Greenpeace for $80 mn for defamation
By Staff Writers, Mumbai (AFP), Jan 28, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Indias_Essar_sues_Greenpeace_for_80_mn_for_defamation_999.html
Other News that May Be of Interest
New York declares war on swans
By Staff Writers, New York (AFP), Jan 30, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_York_declares_war_on_swans_999.html
################################################
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Proposed State Climate Change Legislation
By Staff Writers, Live Green Swim Warm.org, No date
http://livegreenswimwarm.org/proposed-state-legislation/#.UurDGxBdXCs
Saving the planet, one swimming pool at a time
Opec’s UAE ‘Could Import US Shale Gas’
By Staff Writers, Upstream News, Jan 27, 2014
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1350402.ece
###################################################
We can only hope that the politicians do not inflict irreparable damage to our economies before the unavoidable realization of how futile it has been to make sacrifices on the barren altar of carbon strangulation.
SEAHAWKS 43 — DENVER 8
YEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWW!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Oh, yeah. FYI: I was born and raised within an hour of Seattle #(:))
[The mod notes that Janice missed an (irregularly) varying number of “!” marks in each line … Mod]
Anthony Watts & al
I would quite especially not take Richard Lindzens words for anything at all. His Iris effect did fail again and again and again and again. tose articles discussing that hotspot over the tropics showed also worthless in other details, the problem obviously not adequately and cleverly stated innorder to discuss geophysics.
I have found out that the ENSO only rules for short time weather forecasts out there in the province, for the CALTEX area, for the prayers house in Texas, and for Australia.
What rather rules the world is the NAO situation, not because of NATO but because of the quite more wider openings between the atlantic and the arctic ocean. The bering street is too shallow.
wherefore I have suggested the sea serpent, the golf stream and Midgardsormen, the polar vortex or Jet- stream for the 2 most important elements of world weather longtime forecast i e for “Climate”.
And to take the hillbillies serious, the lapse- rate. Because the earth is not flat as a moneypenny with 2 sides for and against.
As soon as you have rain in southern California again, the worlds temperatures will “skyrocket” for very traditional reasons, so you must make up your mind soon.
I do strongly recommend not to confuse heat and temperature and to confuse surface area and bulk contenbt volume and weight for political religious reasons.
The tropopause is to be re- discovered and enjoined and given right physical explaination. Roll up global cooling, rather than global warming. Because that discussion has been politically hi- jacked and put the intensionally wrong and fraud and quacky way. If the cooler is manipulated and tricked with, symptoms will show bup and they do quite clearly. the system also becomes very much easier to troll nup and understand from the cool side.
Accept Hansens Venus theory and set Delta T / doubbling of CO2 to 3 as a first and normal and balanced neutral approximation. and then look over if the rest of it does keep band you can get on with it with your systematics without having to fight both nature and science because such manners are not “Sceptic”
Care also to define the time- spans. Short time = the Partys 5 year plans for the STALIN steel and electricity and white- ware living standard production, 70 years = for eventual storms of your eventual grandchildren, It is Salomos number. The lifespan of a hunan. Only strong men live til they are 80 says Salomo.
700 years = the normal lifetime for the average large empire. It is also the lifetime of an oak. 7000 years is worlds record set on Picea exelsia uphill in Jämtland, beat that.
Avoid also figting a hockeystick, it is a scytch. Standing up together holding hands shoulder by shoulder talkingt with one voice against a Mann with a scytch is stupid. That Mann may become professionally interested, and come and take you. Then you will end up together in a pile for fermentation or for consumption, or wasted for burning.
If wasted by the Mann, you get some alternatives. Gehenna is the community junkyard in old Jerusalem that was set on fire for hygienic reasons. The fire stove is also mentioned. Nivlheim is rather the dark and cold and foggy Hell.
But in any case, the old blacksmiths went to hell too early, and if we know them right they were refused in Hell because they knew to much about heating and temperatures, thus learn that in time and never cheat yourself or your next person on that.
This is my very best GURU advices for you now on how to tackle the apokalypses and stay prepared for doomsday at any time.
Nearly half-an-hour later…..
So, I take it all the rest of you were for Denver? Sigh.
Sorry about that, Colorado Wellington. That must have been tough to watch.
Mr obama correctly stated that climate change is a fact. It has been ongoing for hundreds of millions of years and will continue long after he is gone. There is
littleNOTHING governments can do to stop it.Ah Ha!
Science Mag, McNutt and Board and Reviewers nuke Kerr!
Sad for Kerr.
The real intentions of McNutt, Board and Reviewers of Science Mag are now laid open for all to see.
Look to see Michael E. Mann installed as Chief Statistical Reviewer of Science Mag in a few days.
A sad day that will be.
SEAHAWKS 43 — DENVER 8
#(:))
Under the heading “Not All vatts Are Created Equal” wind power in the Columbia River area is mentioned. Here is a link to a graph showing power from several sources that have to be balanced by the BPA on a real-time basis. There has not been much wind over the last few weeks but some does show up from time to time. (refreshes every 5 minutes)
Note the green line:
http://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Operations/Wind/baltwg.aspx
Scroll down to see a list of thermal sources – landfills, lumber, paper …
Also of interest, most of the time BPA is a net exporter of energy.
The story about Senegal is odd. Within it they mention
1. an area referred to as the “Venice of Africa”.
2. rapidly growing cities
3. a failed canal project
4. heavy rains
5. a rise in sea level
6. lack of nationwide coordination on civil protection
While the title claims “UN says climate change is drowning Senegal”
Have a look. Use “St. Louis, Senegal” in Google Earth.
This is another sandbar story:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/09/breaking-news-seventh-first-climate-refugees-discovered/
28 Jan: Boston Globe: Carolyn Y. Johnson: Climate change threatens a simple cup of tea
A group of scientists including a Tufts University chemical ecologist are exploring the effects that climate change will have on tea crops in China, supported by a four-year, $931,000 grant from the National Science Foundation.
Colin Orians, a professor of biology at Tufts, sees tea as an ideal way to study fundamental questions about plant biology, including how changing external conditions influence plants’ allocation of resources toward making defensive chemicals that protect them against being eaten.
Orians answered a few questions about the research by e-mail. His answers, edited for length, are below…
Q: Typically, when people think about the effect climate change will have on agriculture, they worry about crops failing. Do you expect these changes are already occurring in other agricultural products?
A: Yes, we tend to focus so much on yield when thinking about climate change but this emphasis loses sight of the importance of quality. Is climate changing the quality of spinach, kale, or blueberries? I think we all could come up with a list of a dozen food and beverage items that we regularly consume because they are good for us. I want to know how those benefits are, or might be, changing.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/science/2014/01/28/climate-change-threatens-simple-cup-tea/aK5I9AevMh8vv1EzbjNTjJ/story.html
OT: I just wanted to add in here that BOM are at it again, they are currently trying to scare-up some ‘extreme’ weather from their digital top hat of rabbits.
This time it’s a weak dis-organized tropical storm, with a barely defined ‘eye’, at this moment making landfall in the south-eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. BOM are actually calling this minor globish swirl a “Category 1 Tropical Cyclone”.
As I usually do, I checked with the US “Navy NRL Tropical Cyclones” pages, to see how they were classifying it, and of course they are calling it tropical disturbance, “94P. Invest”. Have a look at it yourself. Do you think this is a Cat-1 tropical cyclone or just a minor tropical storm?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc14/SHEM/94P.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20140203.0601.mtsat2.x.vis1km_high.94PINVEST.25kts-998mb-173S-1400E.100pc.jpg
That current link’s wording even says 998 hPc with 25kt winds! lol 😀
Here’s the 512 km range BOM radar loop, and note the almost complete lack of a closed-loop circulation, where the southern eye should be … and remember, this is from BOM’s own radar data-stream … this is what they are seeing too:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR361.loop.shtml#skip
Obviously it’s nowhere near being an actual tropical cyclone, but alas, it will go down in the BOM’s formal stats for 2014 as a Cat-1 cyclone.
EEK!!!!
And here’s what BOM are currently saying about this alleged ‘cyclone’:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20023.txt
>>>>>
IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 4:03 pm EST on Monday 3 February 2014
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from the
Burketown to Kowanyama.
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from NT/Qld Border to
Burketown.
At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Fletcher, Category 1 was estimated to be near
the coast
160 kilometres east northeast of Burketown and 70 kilometres south southwest of
Gilbert River Mouth and
moving east at 9 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Fletcher is now close to crossing the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria coast north of Karumba and should move inland this evening.
GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected this afternoon
and tonight between Burketown and Kowanyamah.
The cyclone may weaken overland overnight, but is forecast to recurve towards
to the west during Tuesday in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and redevelop.
As a result GALES would again be possible between Kowanyamah and Burketown
extending to coastal and island communities between the Northern Territory
border and Burketown later Tuesday or Wednesday.
Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely in the Gulf Country
district, mainly in near coastal parts over the next couple of days.
People between the NT/Qld border and Kowanyama should take precautions and
listen to the next advice at 5pm.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).
Details of Tropical Cyclone Fletcher at 4:00 pm EST [3:30 pm CST]:
.Centre located near…… 17.1 degrees South 140.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the east at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 1
.Central pressure……… 992 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Monday 03 February.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
>>>>>
That is how the BOM rolls these days … basically, they’ve turned from a once reasonably competent and respected professional organization, into this abject incompetent farce we see today, where even the vital and essential service of providing accurate and credible tropical cyclone warnings and classifications has become a circle-jerk of routine BS making.
So what should be done about a public service and public funded organization that keeps doing this to the public?
You decide.
This post is “Brill” and needs to be bookmarked for constant reference.
It’s not the done thing to blurt out sports scores etc on unassociated blogs. A lot of people record them to watch live later. Remember this is a global medium. At least start with “Super Bowl spoiler” as first line and leave a gap.
On another blog yesterday someone gave the ending to a major tv drama, but the rest of the world is one week behind. Great.
Janice Moore says:
February 2, 2014 at 7:24 pm
Nearly half-an-hour later…..
So, I take it all the rest of you were for Denver? Sigh.
====================
This English person was quietly rooting for Seattle. Quietly because here in moonlit Wiltshire the game took place in the middle of the night. Also because, being a Raiders fan for over 30 years, I didn’t want to seem like I was supporting a team from the NFC. I was, of course, saved by the fact that Seattle used to be an AFC West team.
Anyway, they were very impressive, well done them.
What a horrid super bowl game — and the commercials [esp Budweiser] were even worse!
[trimmed per site policy. Mod]
Here is a major factor the president either doesn’t understand, or doesn’t want to acknowledge:
We do not need to slash bureaucracy and streamline the permitting process for KEY projects, it needs to be done for all projects, all businesses, large or small. Until that happens, there will be no large scale recovery.
Until that happens, we might as well begin implementing 5-year plans determined by the central government. After all, that worked so well in the Soviet Union.
As the Brits say, this post is spot on. And somewhat exhausively well documented!
Sorry, Janice Moore, for being late.
I’m still too depressed from the Ashes debacle.
Congratualtios on your team winning.
Unmentionable says:
February 2, 2014 at 10:50 pm
“So what should be done about a public service and public funded organization that keeps doing this to the public?”
Throw them in jail, of course!
Consider that an Italy court ordered jail terms for 7 earthquake experts convicted of manslaughter for failing to give adequate warning to the residents of a seismically active area.
Can you blame BOM “experts” for pointing out that weather is happening?
Thanks, Mr. Green Genes and M Courtney!
So, Schofield…. I suppose those people also walk down the streets and hallways of their day with their eyes shut and their ear plugs firmly in place? I’m sorry that knowing the final score ruined the game for you. I’ll try to remember your advice the next time Seattle wins the Superbowl… .
Lest we neglect the most important story of the week:
Prince Charles’ latest
Foray egg-head
Seems to be hatched
From genes in-bred
For in Charles’ mind
Brigade-strength flocks
Flutter about
As headless cocks
And so to quell
These chanticleers
Charles swats at them
With Princely jeers
Much like Charles’ wont
To rail and rant
And this and that
Poor potted plant
As if such might
His chances boost
To gain the crown
And rule the roost