California's drought situation in pictures – what a difference one year makes

Solar powered desalinization makes a lot more sense than solar powered electricity.

Maybe Californian can buy some slightly used desalinization plants from Australia CHEAP?

With a cold PDO CONTINUING, any ENSO forecast is highly questionable!

plus they are busting up the dams and letting water rush to the sea for the coho – 925 significant dams in the American West is a big play for the environmental movement, and barely reported. Plus up in the headwaters of every major river system, little dams and weirs are being plucked out – the land goes to desert within a year.

“If the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.”
Those models have been predicting an El Nino for a while now. They have no skill unfortunately. We need a pattern change and the high pressure ridge to break down but I don’t see that happening any time soon. There just isn’t enough amplitude right now to break it down.

Hopefully an El Niño, which will also get blamed on/connected to “global warming”. if the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.
Well, watching the model ensemble the last couple of years was really difficult to find a month when they were right, just saying.

California need to urgently start building de-salination plants, like Australia did, to prepare for the future of permanent drought. PS as soon as Australia started building these permanent drought structures they were mothballed. I wonder why? Could it have has anything to do with the Biblical floods that followed. These fools are reacting to natural climate change and they just don’t know it. They are peeing into the wind.
Permanent drought predicted – 2007
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2007/09/06/201842/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/
‘Biblical floods’ occurred – 2011
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jan/02/queensland-biblical-floods-australia
Where is Noah? We must save our beloved creatures. I don’t mean wild animals I mean the domesticated animals we call Warmists.

I agree the CFSv2 model ensemble forecast has been very unskillful. What’s the easiest way to finf the earlier ensemble forecasts and why would the present MET Office forecast be contrary to the NOAA forecast?

Drought in the western US is a consequence of cool water – La Nina conditions.
‘Global warming’ models predict that La Nina conditions should dramatically decrease, replaced by more frequent and more intense warm water – El Nino conditions.
More drought in California is evidence against ‘global warming’.

Jeff Sim says:
In Australia we have many mothballed desalination plants we can sell to California and maybe recoup some of the billions we spent by our leaders who foolishly listened to the Greens whose mantra was “It will never rain again in Australia.”
Sounds to me as you got your self thoroughly harropified, my good man.

Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
We’re in the worst drought since 1898, at least, but it has to do with the Pacific Ocean, not the demon Global Warming. Read the whole thing. There are some impressive pictures there, too.

Jerry Brown was elected Governor of Callifornia for the first time in 1976, and there was a drought in the state. He’s elected again and there’s another drought. Coincidence?

Overheard on OZ TV:-
Hot? Jeez, chickens are laying omelets!

Would I be right in saying there has been a water pipeline from Canada to California for many years now?
My point is that water shortage in California isn’t a new phenomenon.

>>Would I be right in saying there has been a water pipeline from Canada to California for many years now?
Not quite. Northern California has historically been self sufficient and in fact exports a lot of its water to Southern California. Northern California is beginning to feel the squeeze these days because there is no link between growth and water supply.
Southern California has no ‘real’ local resources and has to import all of it’s water from Northern California (via State Water Project) and Colorado River Aqueduct. What groundwater they have is just storage that has to be recharged using imported water. The City of Los Angeles also imports water from the Eastern Sierras through its city owned Los Angeles aqueduct.

>>Oregon has refused to send water to California for years.
Hope they don’t budge. The folks in the Eastern Sierras learned the hard way.

Your water is up here, In Alberta! See the June flood rain event :
http://www.environment.alberta.ca/forecasting/data/precipmaps/event_Jun19_22.PDF
and Winter cum to date:
http://www.environment.alberta.ca/forecasting/data/precipmaps/jan2014/wintacc.pdf
BTW there is a desalination plant going in at Carlsbad as a co-gen to the gas-fired power plant right on the coast. Seems a good use of natural gas.

Maybe the time is right to try towing a few icebergs down from the Arctic or up from the Antarctic.
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-08/10/iceberg-towing
I hear there is plenty of “land ice” making life tough for the penguins and tourists down in Commonwealth Bay.

Nothing new. Lived in the Bay Area in the mid 70’s during the midst of a strong drought period (and the global cooling scare). East Bay MUD had us on a 120 gpd ration. Shasta was down to something like 20 percent of full capacity. Just googled the ’77 level versus today — ’77 was 100 ft lower than the present level. The expert’s prognostication for recovery was 10 yrs of normal winter precipitation. In fact the reservoir was spilling in ’78 due to a wet ’77/’78 winter.

Precipitation Shifts over Western
North America as a Result of
Declining Arctic Sea Ice Cover:
The Coupled System Response
Earth Interactions • Volume 9 (2005) • Paper No. 26 • Page 1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/EI171.1
as Arctic sea ice
cover is reduced, precipitation patterns over western North America will shift
toward dryer conditions in southwestern North America and wetter conditions
in northwestern North America. Here, three complementary lines of research
validate and explore the robustness of this possible climate change impact

Jimbo the salinity production near Sydney was closed for two reasons, the 65 wind turbines used were driving the people mad with their humming like a jet plane, and we got more rain and the dams were overflowing. Erected by the previous labor government who were climate change supporters etc.

How come several years ago, California had problems with a freak cold weather. Arnold said something about it. I believe you received snow and frosts?

Fifteen years ago I was in LA and went to Redondo Beach. At some stage I needed to visit the toilet and was surprised to find that there were no male and female sections, just dozens of cubicles for everyone to use.
After use of course everyone was obliged to flush away gallons of water.
I have to wonder why do they not have urinals for men? If you are just taking a quick leak there is no need to flush away a gallon of water.
Any idea why this is the case?

Drought? In California? If it wasn’t for federal government intervention sending water to California from as far as two states away, charging just 1/10 of the cost most of California would be desert. California has never had enough local water to support anywhere near its current level of population / agriculture.

jai mitchell says:
January 18, 2014 at 6:14 pm
as Arctic sea ice cover is reduced, precipitation patterns over western North America will shift
toward dryer conditions in southwestern North America and wetter conditions in northwestern North America.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So increasing Arctic sea ice should have the opposite effect?

Well I think maybe our Anthony is committing cherry picking, with his dramatic pictures of lakes Oroville and Shasta in “water rich” Northern California. How do Camanche and Folsom look Anthony ?
A more fair and balanced view of California’s water situation, might be obtained by looking at lakes like Lake Hughes, Lake Castaic, and Pyramid Lake or the new Eastside Reservoir in Riverside County; all of them in the traditionally desert Southern California region. They would be more hard hit by drought, compared to the ones Anthony picked, as the Sierra snow pack never gets down that far.
Pyramid lake has a problem, as you would have a hard time adding a thimble full of water to that reservoir, and those others; all similarly hit by the drought conditions.
I don’t think Governor Jerry Brown, spends a lot of time in Anthony’s neighborhood, or around the Sacramento, San Joachin Delta system, where they have those pumps, that pump the Sierra snow melt waters to go south, to water all the golf courses in So-Cal.

I see no reason except politics why we don’t build a national (or even international) pipeline system, to allow places with a shortage of water to buy from places with a surplus just like the electrical grid. Of course, in practice this would mean the whole system of farm subsidies would need to be dismantled — to which I say, it’s about f___ing time!!!

There is no water problem, just a people problem. Build the infrastructure with whatever means you choose, desalination, wind turbines, solar, gas, pipelines, power lines, roads … But be sure to charge for the true cost of construction, operation, maintenance and replacement of supply and delivery plus an operating margin and profit. Charge the true cost of water for irrigation as well. When the true cost is applied, people will conserve water on their own, modify their life style and choices, or move elsewhere. Drip systems replace spray irrigation once the cost of water increases to market value. Many behaviours change when water is limited or expensive. For example, you don’t see too many lawns in Palm Springs (although the Palms are drip irrigated [pun intended]).

GlynnMhor says:
January 18, 2014 at 2:21 pm
Solar powered desalinization makes a lot more sense than solar powered electricity.
***************************************************************************************************************************I I will raise you a Harrop and say that we use whirly gigs.
Ops Barrie beat me to the punch…

Stephen Rasey … what about this graph?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

i’d drill a well, just for back up, but, since i live in The Valley, like totally, the City of Lost Angels owns the water rights to my property, so i’d be breaking the law.
it’s Chinatown Jake….
(sucks to be us %-)

MattN says:
January 18, 2014 at 6:09 pm
We stole all their rain here in the east. Seriously, SW Virginia had more rain by July 15 last year than all of 2012.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes, wasn’t it lovely? (I am in central North Carolina)
But the east coast gets it’s droughts too. This is from Ohio University Research Communications about a West Virgina stalagmite. The connection is:
less solar radiation ===> the Atlantic Ocean cooled ===> icebergs increased ===> precipitation fell===> century-long droughts aka Bond Events.

New climate record shows century-long droughts in eastern
North America
Weak sun created cool oceans, lowered rainfall seven times in 7,000 years
ATHENS, Ohio (Aug. 19, 2008) – A stalagmite in a West Virginia cave has yielded the most detailed geological record to date on climate cycles in eastern North America over the past 7,000 years. The new study confirms that during periods when Earth received less solar radiation, the Atlantic Ocean cooled, icebergs increased and precipitation fell, creating a series of century-long droughts…..
The scientists found evidence of at least seven major drought periods during the Holocene era, according to an article published online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. “This really nails down the idea of solar influence on continental drought,” said Springer, an assistant professor of geological sciences.
Geologist Gerald Bond suggested that every 1,500 years, weak solar activity caused by fluctuations in the sun’s magnetic fields cools the North Atlantic Ocean and creates more icebergs and ice rafting, or the movement of sediment to ocean floors. Other scientists have sought more evidence of these so-called “Bond events” and have studied their possible impact on droughts and precipitation. But studies to date have been hampered by incomplete, less detailed records, Springer said. The stalagmites from the Buckeye Creek Cave provide an excellent record of climate cycles, he said, because West Virginia is affected by the jet streams and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean. Other studies have gleaned climate cycle data from lakes, but fish and other critters tend to churn the sediment, muddying the geological record there, said study co-author Harold Rowe….

gymnosperm says: @ January 18, 2014 at 9:39 pm
Both your links return pag not found. (It may be just me and my dinosaur computer)

No rain in the weather model forecasts until the very end of January, when some moderate precip shows up in the northern California.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014011906/gfs-ens_apcpn24_namer.html

This if from 1973. Of course that was before 1979 so it doesn’t count. Enjoy.

Seems like shades of 76-77 winter, tho not as cold. Endless, mostly dry clippers here in the east in addition to the west-coast drought. Hope not, as 77 was bone-dry long into the year over most of the US.

But hey, they have billions to spend on a train no one will ride. So why worry about a drought in a desert state?

The really worrisome thing is the snowpack deficit. It isn’t like precipitation will pick up after May, at least not normally. If the snows don’t come this winter, the region may be waiting for water until next November.

Coach Springer,
“What do you pipe when Great Lake levels are down like they are now (http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/dbd/) and there would be restrictions on quenching the western half of the US?”
1. You can’t use Great lakes water outside the Great Lakes drainage basin due to a treaty between the US and Canada.
2. Your link gives no real reason to be concerned about Great Lakes water levels. The worst of the lakes at your link is Michigan/Huron which is down by less than half a meter, around a foot and a half. The total surface area of the Great Lakes is 94,250 square miles. If all of the lakes were down as much as Michigan, the total loss of water would be around 26.8 cubic miles. The total volume of the Great Lakes is around 5,439 cubic miles so the Great lakes are down by less than half a percent from the long term average and current levels are well within long term variability.

JJ at 12:47 am
“what about this graph?”
What about it? What are you trying to say it shows?
1. that the Calif drought is caused by the 2013-14 15% Ice Extent being totally within the 2 std deviation envelope of the 1981-2010 average?
2. that the Calif drought is caused by the 2013-14 15% extent being greater than the 2012-13 ice extent up to mid december 2013?
3. that the Calif drought is caused by the 2013-14 15% extent being 1 to 6 days behind 2012-13 for the past four weeks?
What about it?
4. that my statement: “2013 had more ice at all dates than did 2012.” isn’t technically true in the last half of December? It is true according to the IARC-JAXA

Other JJ –
We are asked by Anthony and the site moderators to post under a single, unique handle. I have been posting on this site under the handle JJ for several years. Please choose a different handle for yourself.
This is the third time I have asked.
JJ

@ MattS , I believe there is a similar treaty re: BC Canada “The Columbia River Treaty 1951, I think that most if not all the water stays within the Colombia River basin, for both irrigation and Hydro power and spring flood control all along all the rivers in the basin. We have had an average year in BC btw, although snow fall below 2000′ here in the Southern Interior has been very low. I know I got a 4 wd for the first time ever, have used it once!!!!. Last year I had to chain up the car every time coming home (bad driveway in a rural area) from late Nov. to end off Feb. so maybe everybody in California should throw away all their umbrellas, raincoats and rubber boots!

Now is the time for REAL greens to prove their ideology triumphs rationality by sending contributions to the Sierra Club and NRDC to continue opposition to desalinization plants (held up for decades), opposition to increased reservoir volume (essentially impossible now), increased diversion of the Sacramento River to minnows instead of people, destruction of dams and reservoirs (including the Hetch Hetchy, the largest freshwater source in NCal).
Californians, in their slavish devotion to green at any cost, have created this crisis.
Own it greens.

Anthony:
“Plus, California population has increased dramatically while water storage has not. That’s a testament to poor planning and the hands of environmentalists and their campaigns to stop new water storage systems. ”
Exactly. This is precisely the problem and the biggest challenge facing California’s water supply. The precipitation will continue to be up and down from year to year (even if this year is particularly dry). The real issue is the huge increase in population over the last century, coupled with the failure to plan adequate water storage to accommodate it.
Indeed, a couple of years ago when there was an excess of water, water was being let out of the reservoirs when they weren’t even full, due to concerns about safety and lack of upkeep to meet earthquake standards. California needs to upgrade existing facilities and build new dams and storage facilities (or do a massive desalination project) if it hopes to avoid water problems in the future. Conservation is of course also important, but probably won’t be sufficient on its own.

Gov. Brown opposed both the Auburn Dam on the upper American River and New Melones south of that on the Stanislaus when he was Governor in the 1970s. He also tried to build the Peripheral Canal to pump Sacramento River water to So. California (voted down by ballot initiative). So it’s fitting he now owns the crisis. Unfortunately nobody is pointing out he has been proven completely incompetent in water resource matters.
People say the Auburn dam could not be built due to seismology. The Carter admin stopped the construction after a 5.8 mag earthquake occurred in Oroville in 1975. Brown then fought with Senator Cranston to starve funding in the US Senate. The Oroville quake was caused by the reservoir, an effect that is not unknown. The Auburn dam was redesigned to handle such seismic activity after the quake. Today, the facts about Oroville seismology are even better understood. Since 1975, Oroville has experienced only 3 quakes above 4 magnitude, 1992, 1997 and 2007 none above 4.5. The average Oroville quake is 3.2 since 1975. The quakes occur when the lake is drained in the Summer and Fall, not the peak fill or filling. They occur after large seasonal fluctuations, large fills followed by large drains. The Auburn Dam could have been built safely and effectively but for the objections of Brown, Carter and the environmentalists.
New Melones has about 1M acre feet out of 2.5 potential right now. If anyone remembers, this was the reservoir where Mark Dubois of Friends of the River (FOR) chained himself to a rock in an attempt to stop the lake’s filling. Brown would not allow it to be filled until 1982 when a flood rocketed down from the Sierras and filled it for him, saving many lives and properties in the process.
New Melones also has 300 MW of generating capacity, clean, renewable power. The people of Modesto and Stockton now have drinking water because of it, no thanks to the FOR or Brown.
Auburn was to have 700 MW of clean renewable power capacity. The people of Placer County are in a water crisis because Folsom is almost empty. The City of Sacramento avoids the deep crisis for now only because the Sacramento River is not being pumped to Southern California.
The people of California deserve to know who caused this drought to become a crisis (the guy holding the chart). Let’s hope that Brown, the Friends of the River and President Carter get the credit they deserve.

The Colorado River, where it comes past Blythe, CA is low. Very, very low. Shockingly so when we drove over it last a few days ago.

It is worth, at the end, cite Jay Lund (is the Ray B. Krone Professor of Environmental Engineering at UC Davis and director of the university’s Center for Watershed Sciences)
(http://californiawaterblog.com/2013/01/13/climate-change-and-california-water-past-present-and-future/) :
“California is prone to massive climate change. In medieval times, parts of California experienced extreme droughts lasting more than 100 years (Stine 1994).”
“The physical, economic and ecological instability of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta probably poses more risk to California’s water supply than climate warming (Lund et al. 2010).”
“Talk of climate change and water in California is fraught with handwringing and delusions. Much discussion borders on alarmist …”

“”””””……goldminor says:
January 19, 2014 at 1:51 am
george e. smith says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:32 pm
————————————
That 8×10 glossy photo showing last year alongside this present year seems to negate your thought. This drought is still in place and by this summer, unless spring rains come strong, they are going to run into problems with those big pumps that send water south, mainly for farming. There is a mandate to keep the Delta waters from from being diluted by too much sea water intrusion. This is related to the fisheries and is a big deal…….””””””
Well dammit; now everybody is reading my thoughts; cut it out ! Or get it right !
I never said Anthony’s pictures aren’t real; and I never actually saw a glossy 8×10 anyway.
Many thanx to Crosspatch, for giggling the Folsom and Camanche nummers. See one’s good and one sucks !
That was what my thought ACTUALLY WAS; Nothing to do with washing SF Bay, and the Pacific Ocean; which I happen to support, for its very real environmental necessity.
But desert golf courses aren’t environmentally necessary.
As E.M. Smith pointed out; the farmers get it dirt cheap. Not against farmers; but as a frequent commuter to S-Cal on highway 5, I can testify, that some of those farmers seem to be able to water very well.
Now the typically don’t water along highway 5, at least close to the road, so they can put up those big signs about a Congressional created dust bowl.
No the dustbowl is just where the farmers want it, so you can see it as you drive highway 5.
But a quarter mile from the road, where nobody ever looks, there is plenty of green agriculture going on where the farmers want it to make money.
And speaking of highway 5, every time it rains in the middle of the Sahara desert, it also rains on the west side of highway 5. Funny thing since I discovered that; I have noticed that there are lots of brand new citrus, and stone fruit, and walnuts or pistachios growing on the west side; used to be absolutely nothing growing there, but pronghorn antelopes, and grass. It’s all done with the magic of irrigation, and of course good soil that can grow grass with no water.
But if you can kick up a racket about the lack of cheap water, and people react, why not.
By the way; the farmers I know, in the Fresno-Visalia central valley area, are very good at water conservation, and intelligent crop rotation, to work with the available water; both snow melt, when available, and pumped well water (ancient snow melt) when it isn’t.