Did those penguins give you permission to use their likeness on your blog? If not, you’d better expect a strongly worded (and completely clueless) email from the Australiasiantarctican International Association of Animals who live in really cold places any moment now….:)
The amounts of ice on land or sea are not static. They fluctuate naturally, like our climate, and our weather.
Rob Dawg
January 6, 2014 1:53 pm
Is that uncovered moss on the side of the ship?
lurker, passing through laughing
January 6, 2014 1:59 pm
Damian,
The evidence of continental ice decreasing is dubious at best.
empiricist
January 6, 2014 2:00 pm
In 2000, The Independent reported that
“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”
I wonder if that was part of the “scientific consensus?” http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
DiggerUK
January 6, 2014 2:00 pm
Is the Costa Concordia ready for Arctic duties yet?
I hear the quarters are amongst the best available for scientists.
…_
Vieras
January 6, 2014 2:05 pm
I visited a glacier some years ago. It was melting and with the current speed it would be gone pretty soon. My friends thought that it was becuase of co2. I can’t blame them for thinking that. It’s really hard to step back and look at the big picture. That same glacier had been melting and shrinking for more than 200 years, so it is absolutely normal that it still was. It had nothing to do with co2.
Turney makes a comment on Nature. He calls the Russian ship an “icebreaker”.
“Sitting in the ship’s lounge of the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis, safe with friends and colleagues and heading back to civilization, I can say it has been a remarkable journey.
For the past six weeks on board the Russian icebreaker MV Akademik Shokalskiy, my colleague Chris Fogwill and I have led a team of scientists, science communicators and volunteers on a voyage from the New Zealand subantarctic islands to the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The aim was to study various aspects of this vast, remote region to better understand its role in the Earth system, and communicate these results directly to the public. Yet most people only became aware of our work when we got stuck and had to be rescued.” http://www.nature.com/news/this-was-no-antarctic-pleasure-cruise-1.14466
I ‘m sure he’s in deep doodoo and it playing a game of CYA.
James of the West
January 6, 2014 2:26 pm
The glaciers and land ice have been melting because we are in an interglacial period. The rate of melt is not changing much – we know this because of the rate of change of sea levels is relatively linear (since argo at least).
When sea level trend is flat or reducing for a few decades we are probably having a mini ice age and if that continues for a few hundred decades then it is an ice age and the interglacial is ended.
Until the interglacial is finished the ice is going to continue to melt. Don’t Panic.
Pedantic old Fart
January 6, 2014 2:26 pm
History, facts and logic do not impact on true believers of any religion.
I love the helicopter producing the CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2. LOL. Brilliant!
DCA
January 6, 2014 2:33 pm
Turney says:
“Since news of our plight raced around the world, I have been surprised by the level of criticism our scientific expedition has received. This was no pleasure cruise.”
What about his family? The non-climate science PHD students?
Scarface
January 6, 2014 2:34 pm
Damian says: January 6, 2014 at 1:29 pm
“Frank, Sea ice yes, but land ice has been decreasing.”
Ok, so when and where would that have been melting then? Where was all that heat coming from?
Would you please give coordinates for a 10,000 km^2 area where any significant decrease occured? And when was that?
Tom J
January 6, 2014 2:40 pm
My understanding is that we’re not allowed to drill in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge because the delicate caribou will be fatally disrupted by the presence of an oil well on about 1/10% of the land. Now, the caribou can deal with mosquitoes that extract one pint of blood a day out of them (whew, that’s gotta be itchy), and summertime temperatures that can occasionally climb in excess of 80 degrees (thus the mosquitoes), but they’re obviously more delicate than those sturdy penguins that have to deal with boatloads of trapped, ignorant ecotourists, and moronic climate scientists, along with multiple ice breakers to rescue them. Could it be that those caribou haven’t developed the same sense of derision to our ecowarriors that the penguins in the above photo have?
heard a proAGW talking head on the bbc radio5 today ” …………ah but you see what happened was ….this sheet of ice which the ship got stuck in was “old ice”…….it was v close to the land u see,so the unusually strong winds blew back off the ridge & doubled the ice over to twice its usual thickness…..it was a “weather” event see, nothing to do with lack of warming,,,,” (ie wrong kind of ice) ps the dog ate my homework………
James (Aus.)
January 6, 2014 3:03 pm
Turkey – “Sitting in the ship’s lounge of the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis, safe with friends and colleagues and heading back to civilization, I can say it has been a remarkable journey”.
No, it’s been an utterly shameful journey. A journey you had the cheek to name, “Spirit of Mawson” when it is the very antithesis of his spirit and the spirit of science.
No doubt the ship’s lounge is more to your taste as you and your party munches its way through the AA’s supplies.
Never to be allowed further south than 50 degrees would be a suitable restriction placed on your movements.
omo
January 6, 2014 3:30 pm
EMPIRICIST: Britains winter ends tomorrow) .It seems your knowledge of the calendar matches your grasp of meteorology. Winter doesn’t end until March 20th. Never mind, we aren’t put out, we already know that to you ‘warmists’ the truth is what you want it to be, and you will pluck any ‘fact’ from thin air to support your obsession. That’s why you are losing ground – the truth always wins out, now your next tactic is beginning to rear it’s ugly head on warmist supporting sites – banning comments that disagree with you – ALWAYS a sure sign that you are losing the argument
pat
January 6, 2014 3:46 pm
sounds like these “ICONIC” penguins didn’t leave a forwarding address:
from 5:55 in: Wilson on less penguins because there’s 70km of fast ice between where Mawson sailed in and where the sea is today. but as climate warms…etc etc:
Luck-Baker: climate change & the many ways it’s impacting the Antarctic’s animal & ecosystems.. is the underlying research question for all the biologists on the Expedition:
30 Dec: BBC Discovery – The Return to Mawson’s Antarctica – Part Three – BBC News
Producer: Andrew Luck-Baker
Ornithologist Kerry-Jayne Wilson discovers that an ***iconic breeding colony of Adelie penguins at Cape Denison, the rocky area where Douglas Mawson built his expedition hut, has depleted numbers as the fast ice has grown. http://24allnews.com/discovery-the-return-to-mawsons-antarctica-part-three-bbc-news/
29 Dec: Guardian: Antarctic expedition: still icebound – what happens next is anyone’s guess
Like explorer Douglas Mawson 100 years ago, Alok Jha and the expedition he joined face a long wait to be rescued
Ornithologist Kerry-Jayne Wilson counted the populations of Adélie penguins. She found what she had feared – numbers in decline – and something worse: bodies of dead chicks littering the rookeries and many eggs not being properly incubated… http://www.theguardian.com/world/antarctica-live/2013/dec/29/antarctica-expedition-ice-wait-rescue
2007: National Geographic: Anne Casselman: Adelie Penguins Extinct in a Decade in Some Areas?
Adélie penguins in Antarctica are in the midst of a major upheaval as climate change causes their icy habitat to warm up, experts say.
Some populations of the birds are thriving, but most are declining rapidly…
“That region has experienced the most rapid warming during winter on the planet,” said Bill Fraser, an ecologist with the Polar Oceans Research Group in Sheridan, Montana…
If the trend continues, Fraser predicts that Adélie penguins will be locally extinct within five to ten years… http://news.nationalgeographic.com.au/news/2007/12/071228-penguins-extinct.html
Well, no. In East Antarctica, where Commonwealth Bay belongs to (the site Akademik Shokalskiy became stuck), ice sheet mass is actually increasing according to the IMBIE (Ice-sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise) 2012 experiment (by +57 ± 35 Gt/yr in 2003-2010). Misinformation is never welcome.
DanJ
January 6, 2014 4:10 pm
RE: icebreakers,
The Akademik Shokalsky was built for the Soviet Union as an ice-strengthened research ship. Her ice class is roughly similar to IACS Polar Class 6, “Summer/autumn operation in medium first-year ice which may include old ice inclusions”. These were probably the conditions they were expecting on their current trip.
Xue Long (“Snow Dragon”) is a Chinese research and supply vessel. She was built in the Ukraine as an ice-strengthened Arctic cargo ship, later modified and improved by the Chinese for her current work.
The Aurora Australis was designed in Finland and purpose-built in Australia as a research and supply ship for Antarctic waters. She is much better suited to work in polar regions than AS or QL, but not an icebreaker in the strictest sense of the word.
The Polar Star is a proper icebreaker. Old, but powerful enough and up to the job.
The cynic in me cannot help to notice that the Polar Star and her sister vessel have long needed a replacement, but funds have been lacking. Perhaps news footage of a successful rescue operation might now appeal to the American taxpayer and finally get things going?
AnotehrQlder
January 6, 2014 4:30 pm
Wow – after having read the Nature article – this ends as predicted. He will get credit, a publication in Nature and Science (or even more!) and will even get medals! Probably from AGU!
Why would Nature feel the need to cover what The Guardian has already done? Isn’t this a bit pathetic? I mean has Nature become a sensationalistic journal and feels the need to give Turney space for an article defending the trip?
Anthony – I think you should also write an article and submit it to Nature – this would be brilliant! Ah – maybe not – I guess you don’t have buddies there!!! Too funny.
R. de Haan
January 6, 2014 4:31 pm
Love the name change of the ice breaker, neat job.
But to turn the penguins into Greenies…
Don’t they have any rats on board?
Louis Hooffstetter
January 6, 2014 4:32 pm
Damian says: “Frank, Sea ice yes, but land ice has been decreasing.”
Damien: Put up or shut up. Cite your sources. Empirical data only. No models!
R. de Haan
January 6, 2014 4:33 pm
What did I say, ice breaker…. Russian Vodka Boat is a better description.
Bill Illis
January 6, 2014 4:42 pm
Okay, this is over-the-top ridiculous.
From the middle of the southern ocean at 63S in just a few hours, Turney gets an excuse letter published in the journal Nature. There is no scientific reason to publish this, only to push alarmist propaganda/excuses. http://www.nature.com/news/this-was-no-antarctic-pleasure-cruise-1.14466
pat
January 6, 2014 5:12 pm
from the Nature piece:
“This encouraged people to follow our work, as seen by the number of hits received on the expedition website. In the past six weeks, http://www.spiritofmawson.com received 60,000 visits, driving traffic to our social media sites.”
how many of these these 60,000 visits were from CAGW sceptics after the ship got stuck!
rogerknights
January 6, 2014 5:16 pm
omo says:
January 6, 2014 at 3:30 pm
EMPIRICIST: Britains winter ends tomorrow) .
It seems your knowledge of the calendar matches your grasp of meteorology. Winter doesn’t end until March 20th.
But empiricist didn’t say that himself; he was quoting the Independent as having said that back in 2000 (in the spring, presumably):
empiricist says:
January 6, 2014 at 2:00 pm
In 2000, The Independent reported that
“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”
I wonder if that was part of the “scientific consensus?”
Unfortunately, empiricist didn’t use the blockquote tag to indent his quotations, which would have prevented this misunderstanding.
Sweet Old Bob
January 6, 2014 5:40 pm
And I like the”Top Turkey of the science World” on the bow…
Aphan
January 6, 2014 6:13 pm
Pat-
I feel like at least 1,000 of those hits have been MINE. LOL!
Bill-loved the article. I have some questions for Mr Turney after reading it. I imagine me interviewing him myself to be something like what follows:
Chris Turney says – http://www.nature.com/news/this-was-no-antarctic-pleasure-cruise-1.14466
“What went wrong for the Shokalskiy? Contrary to some reports, the ship was not frozen in but was pinned by remobilized sea ice that had been blown by fierce winds. Most importantly, the team is safe and we are incredibly grateful to the international effort to help us. “
“Could this have been avoided? The satellite data leading up to our arrival in Antarctica’s Commonwealth Bay indicated open clear water, and the area seemed to have been that way for some time. As the Shokalskiy attempted to leave, however, we found ourselves surrounded by a mass breakout of multi¬year ice. This was a major event, with the vessel surrounded by blocks of sea ice more than three metres thick, apparently arriving from the other side of the Mertz Glacier. Despite the best efforts of our captain, we could not find a route out. It was deeply frustrating. We had been caught just 2–4 nautical miles (3.7–7.4 kilometres) from the edge of the sea ice. And with pervasive southeasterly winds battering our location, this distance increased to 20 nautical miles within 48 hours.”
*************
Chris says-”the satellite data leading up to our arrival in Antarctica’s Commonwealth Bay indicated open clear water, and the area seemed to have been that way for some time.”
I say-The Shokalskiy never entered Commonwealth Bay. I say this because according to YOUR account Chris in the article, you say “we crossed some 65 kilometres of sea ice to deliver scientists and conservators to the historic base established by scientist and explorer Douglas Mawson a century ago.”
Chris says- The Shokalskiy got stuck “attempting to leave Commonwealth Bay”.
I say- It did NOT get stuck attempting to leave Commonwealth Bay. It got stuck attempting to leave the Watt Bay area, after you visited the Hodgeman Islets.
Chris says-when the storm hit them, “We had been just 2-4 nautical miles (3.7-7.4 kilometers) from the edge of the sea ice”
I say-You admit that you KNEW you were between the CONTINENT and 2-4 nautical miles worth of SEA ICE with a BLIZZARD coming that you KNEW would blow that 2-4 miles of ice AGAINST your ship. Come on, it’s just a scientific fact. Sea Ice moves when the wind blows.
We have video of you stopping to do an INTERVIEW, IN that blizzard with people still moving around behind you on the ice and in the Zodiak!
Chris says-“This distance increased to 20 nautical miles within 48 hours”.
I say, you were STUCK and motionless in the water less than 24 hours after you moved away from the shore ice.
I ASK-
Chris, have you examined the satellite images to determine exactly where 20 nautical miles worth of Sea Ice came from? (you know…like a scientist would)
Chris says-“Apparently from the other side of the Mertz Glacier”.
I ASK- Apparently? Is that a scientific designation based on evidence? Or just a guess? Did you examine the publicly available satellite images and determine for yourself that a 20 nautical mile-sized chunk of previously attached, multi year ice is now MISSING from the area on the other side of MG? Or did someone just tell you that and you liked it?
I ASK- If SOUTH-EAST wind was supposedly already blowing 2-4 miles of sea ice north and west… TOWARDS the coast (and into your ship between the ice and the coast) then how exactly does that same wind, break up a massive chunk of multi year ice, on the SOUTH WEST side of Mertz Glacier, then BLOW IT OUT towards the sea…AWAY from the coast in a south east direction (which would require a shift to a wind coming from the North and West) but as soon as it rounds the end of the glacier, it then CHANGES direction and is blown back in toward the coast, and into your ship, and pile up not just behind you from south and west of the ship, but also from the from the North and East side at the same time. (the side with the previous 2-4 miles of sea ice already there)
Chris says-“Guided by real-time satellite information, the team undertook an experiment across the Antarctic Convergence — a natural boundary between cold Antarctic and warmer subantarctic waters. By combining surface drifters with Argo floats (for measuring salinity and temperature), we have gained a unique snapshot of this important frontier.”
I ASK-Where was that REAL TIME satellite information during the 24 hours prior to you getting stuck? Did it tell you in REAL TIME that it was perfectly fine to move the ship east and south to the Hodgeman Islets at that particular time? What did it tell you the winds and the ice were doing in that area in REAL TIME?
You said the data “leading up to your arrival” NEAR “Commonwealth Bay indicated open, clear water, and the area seemed to have been that way for some time”. What did it say AFTER your arrival? Did it indicate that the water in that area was STAYING open and clear?
We all know that it had NOT told you that Chris, because you, and other passengers on board, reported PRIOR to getting stuck that you KNEW a blizzard was coming and that it was bringing the ICE with it. You and other passengers on the ship reported massive break ups of shore ice, almost every day you were on shore BEFORE you moved south and east in the ship, in fact, several times it was reported that they have gotten STUCK on the Argos with huge cracks developing in the “fast ice” and the ship having to move to another area to pick them up because the area where it dropped them off…is gone, or unsafe.
The idea that it would have taken a “Major event”-to get that ship stuck in sea ice, is laughable. Based on all the EMPIRICAL evidence prior to the day you got stuck, the only major requirement would be for the expedition leader of this trip to have his head so far up his ego that he was oblivious to the SCIENCE going on all around him.
KevinK
January 6, 2014 6:18 pm
Those Penguins are amazing creatures. The Emperor actually broods it eggs in the middle of winter, the males keep the eggs on their feet to keep them warm. Big “crowds” of the males (thousands) milling around in the dark keeping the eggs warm. Boy, talk about male bonding… The females go away to open water to feed. Then the females come back to feed the chicks when the eggs (and the weather) “breaks”. Does make you wonder how that behavior evolved? A couple of the boys just decided to stick it out all winter with the eggs? And they had an evolutionary advantage? Of course, that topic (evolution) is quite touchy, so I won’t go any further with it.
However, the penguins don’t seem all that smart. I have watched a string of them walking in a row (queue), the first penguin tripped over one of the few rocks around. Dang if ever other penguin in the row didn’t trip over the same rock… Just follow the leader kind of instinct; nobody seemed to notice they could just walk around the rock. Of course rocks are somewhat rare in their environment, so maybe nobody knew how to handle one (don’t be a fool, just walk around it).
And they play an interesting game of “chicken” when the time comes to jump into the water. The seals (leopard seal especially) are one of the main predators of penguins. Of course if a seal is cruising around the edge of an ice floe the first penguin to jump into the water is probably a meal. So, they all kind of “fake” jumping in to see if they can fool another penguin into jumping first and becoming the next “seal meal”. Once the first guy/gal jumps in, they all follow like a little waterfall of penguins.
I was on a successful Antarctic cruise (tourist only, we didn’t pretend to be scientists) a while back. An amazing place didn’t seem to be in much jeopardy back 20 years ago. The biggest problem is that it is technically a dessert, so any waste (garbage, sewage, etc.) never has enough moisture available to break down (bio-degrade) like what happens in moister places.
Cheers, Kevin.
OLD DATA
January 6, 2014 6:20 pm
DCA says:
January 6, 2014 at 2:33 pm
Turney says:
“Since news of our plight raced around the world, I have been surprised by the level of criticism our scientific expedition has received. This was no pleasure cruise.”
News of our plight? He planned it and he, and his buddies, own all of it.
Aphan
January 6, 2014 6:33 pm
Anthony-
How many hits has WUWT gotten in the past 6 weeks? Just curious 🙂
Leigh
January 6, 2014 6:33 pm
The following is an exchange through email I had while trying to get one to Turnkey.
I’m still waiting for a reply to the second one.
Start at the bottom.
Why? The emails not for you Alvin. I was directed to send any emails to Turnkey through you. With the simple understanding you’d pass it on. Because he’s trapped in the summer sea ice with his fellow tools and can’t read his emails. I’m buggered if I know why with the digital age we live in. Doesn’t seem to be able to get a weather report either. But thats another story that he’ll probably explain in person at the enquiry. So pass it on, its no skin of your nose. You’ll just be doing what you were told to do. Its not difficult. Cheers Leigh .
▼ Hide quoted text On Jan 3, 2014 10:11 PM, “Alvin Stone” wrote: Dear Leigh,
Please tell the turkey who wrote this that I certainly will not pass it on.
Cheers
Alvin Alvin Stone Media and Communications Manager Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW http://Www.climatescience.org.au [snip -personal info]
From: Leigh Date: Friday, 3 January 2014 8:10 PM To: Alvin Stone Subject: Fraud and its consequence
The turkey says you’ll pass it on Alvin Turkey, You’ve been exposed for what you are. Forever to be known as the “Black Knight” of the cult of the global warmism fraud and his ship of jesters. This “cruise” was not about science. It was about nothing less than hopefully gaining propaganda to advance the fraud that is the non exsistant threat of minuscule global warming. So minuscule , that fairdinkum scientists are having trouble putting a number to it over at least the last eighteen years. Some say longer. And let us not forget the potential free publicity for your “dodgy bob” carbon company. A simple Google search would have given you a heads up to information about the sea ice you desperately wanted not to be there. It has been increasing for over three decades. Up to the minute satellite pictures of the sea ice are freely available. But still you chose to continue putting every body’s life in danger. Including your own wife and children’s. Your a fraud turney nothing less nothing more. Like Gore and all those that seek to profit from this fraud, nothing less than jail would suffice. Yours and others who perpetuated this fraud has their judgement day rapidly approaching. We are onto you fraudsters and so it seems are your ilks allies at Fairfax. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lack-of-accountability-clouding-the-climate-change-debate-20140102-307ja.html In anger Leigh
Tom Harley
January 6, 2014 6:46 pm
Professor Turkey should be banished to spend a year in Western Australia’s hottest town of Marble Bar to research climate change, without the use of fossil fuels for air conditioning. On seconds thoughts, like the penguins, the locals would reject that idea. It’s forecast for 50C in the Pilbara the next few days says the scary ABC.
Tom Harley
January 6, 2014 6:50 pm
Marble bar just had 3 days below 39C last month, when 4 inches of rain fell during the recent cyclone that passed by.
Pamela Gray
January 6, 2014 6:55 pm
I don’t get it.
empiricist
January 6, 2014 6:59 pm
[omo says:
January 6, 2014 at 3:30 pm
EMPIRICIST: Britains winter ends tomorrow) .It seems your knowledge of the calendar matches your grasp of meteorology.]
I am somewhat stunned that my post could have been so misunderstood. I was poking fun at the vanishing snow claims and the “scientific consensus.”
I should have clearly marked the quote as a quote as roger points out.
Manfred
January 6, 2014 7:37 pm
Damian says: January 6, 2014 at 1:29 pm
“Frank, Sea ice yes, but land ice has been decreasing.”
———————————————-
IPCC AR5 sea level is approx constant (or increasing slowly) during the little ice age (1700-1850).
That means despite cooling oceans and increasing glaciers, Antarctica land ice was melting even then – and will do so until the next ice age.
See figure 13.3 in http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter13.pdf
Mac the Knife
January 6, 2014 10:14 pm
DiggerUK says:
January 6, 2014 at 2:00 pm Is the Costa Concordia ready for Arctic duties yet?
I hear the quarters are amongst the best available for scientists.
DiggerUK,
She’s just about ready for her first load of eco-tourists…er…climatologists.
Befitting her new duties, she’s been renamed the Costa Bundle. An alternate name, Frosta Byte was rejected for reasons they couldn’t quite put a finger on. Or a toe, or nose, or any appendage, for that matter….. Funny, that.
pat
January 7, 2014 12:15 am
7 Jan: Xinhua: Icebreaker prepares for Antarctica breakout
The trapped Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, warmed up its engine and widened a path through the ice on Monday, preparing to break out of frozen floes in Antarctica, as weather conditions may turn favorable before Wednesday.
“The path is up to 80 meters wide and 1 kilometer long, which will help the vessel in breaking free,” Qu Tanzhou, director of the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration under the State Oceanic Administration, said on Monday.
Although the southeast wind did not turn into a favorable west wind as expected on Monday, the heavy snow of the past few days turned to sleet, which melted parts of the ice floes, Qu said.
“It’s good news!”…
“The ship is about 14 km from the nearby open water,” Wang said.
If the Xuelong breaks through the stretch of thick ice floes of about 3.7 km long, it sail out of the ice toward the open water, Wang (Wang Jianzhong, captain of the Xuelong) said…
But Qu emphasized that there are uncertainties about the weather in Antarctica and its influence on the floes.
“It is unknown whether the expected west wind will be strong enough to loosen the floes surrounding the ship and how the weather will affect the water currents and icebergs,” Qu said…
Qu hoped Xuelong will break free on its own and continue the scientific research and site inspection for the country’s new Antarctic base.
He added it was not yet known what impact the incident would have on scientific programs… http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-01/07/c_133024539.htm
7 Jan: News Ltd: Rescued Antarctic group due home on Jan 22
But the effort that rescued 52 expeditioners, many of them from Australia and New Zealand, will delay the Australian Antarctic Division’s shipping schedule, including the resupply of Antarctic stations…
The rescue disrupted the resupply mission of the Aurora Australis to Australia’s Casey station as it diverted 800 nautical miles to help the stricken vessel…
Australian Antarctic Division director Dr Tony Fleming said the ship should be ready to head back to Tasmania about January 13, arriving in Hobart about January 22.
“This is about two weeks behind schedule and will mean delays to the rest of the season,” he said in a statement… http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/rescued-antarctic-group-due-home-on-jan-22/story-e6frfku9-1226796686198
Turney doesn’t apply the precautionary principle when it comes to himself.
James Bull
January 7, 2014 1:26 am
Love the picture and many of the comments, have had a good laugh.
DanJ says:
January 6, 2014 at 4:10 pm
RE: icebreakers,
Thanks for the info on icebreakers, the last part about the American ones being old and in need of replacement– Why when all the ice is melting and will be gone in *&%$£(*? years do you need to spend money that can be used for junkets and freeloaders on new ice breaking ships?
Spot the SARC.
James Bull
Andrew
January 7, 2014 1:36 am
“I visited a glacier some years ago. It was melting and with the current speed it would be gone pretty soon. My friends thought that it was becuase of co2. I can’t blame them for thinking that.”
Yeah I went to the NZ glaciers, and though “Wow, these things really HAVE receded a lot!” Then I saw where the line was in 1847 (before CO2s were invented). It receded just as quickly before as it did after – the thing had been going out backwards since the LIA, and indeed since the Ice Age.
Andrew
January 7, 2014 1:39 am
“Turney doesn’t apply the precautionary principle when it comes to himself.”
Professor, would you like some aloe vera for that burrrrrnnnnnnnnn
john
January 7, 2014 2:40 am
One of the central tenets of post-modernism is that there is no objective truth.
Rather, reality is a social construct, which is presumably achieved by consensus.
Post-modernist science first flourished in sociology which expanded to encompass various grievance studies, LGBT studies and others of similar ilk, where rather that observing objective reality, facts are created by consensus and then treated as immutable, except when their mutability is politically expedient.
Post-modernism successfully encroached upon physical science when its utility was recognised by climatologists.
Immediately, climate scientists created, by consensus, their social construct, the terrible spectre of an earth destroyed by catastrophic anthropogenic climate change, which would necessarily result from mankind’s use of fossil fuels.
Computer simulations were created to further refine their visions of an earth with rapidly increasing temperatures, melted polar ice sheets, rising sea levels, inundation of coastal areas, droughts, floods, more snow, less snow, more hurricanes, fewer hurricanes and millions of climate refugees.
In accordance with post-modernism, when the predicted disasters did not occur, this did not require modification of the theory achieved by consensus, it only required modification of the data, which climate scientists have never considered to be immutable, in any case.
Realising that many people cling bitterly to the outmoded concept of objective reality, climate scientists immediately began to surreptitiously alter the historical temperature record, lowering temperatures recorded in the past, so as to ensure that the present is warmer than any time in history.
Inconvenient implications of this theory, regarding accuracy of written history, detailing the supposed activities of our ancestors are discretely ignored as is the truly inconvenient seeming phase relationship between atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and atmospheric temperature.
One old-fashioned and reactionary physicist postulated a thought experiment, wherein a cat in a box was considered to occupy all possible states of existence, aliveness or deadness, until the box was opened, whereupon, it would immediately occupy its most probable state, when observed by an observer.
Post-modernists would postulate that Schrodinger’s cat would occupy whatever state was dictated by the consensus of 97% of observers.
It is clear, since reality is created by consensus, that Professor Turley was quite correct in asserting that the sea-ice in Antarctic waters is disappearing and that therefore the inconvenient entrapment of the Akademik Shokalskiy and Xue Long was not due to any failings of their global warming theory or irresponsible behaviour upon his part.
Rather, the apparent sea-ice which seemingly imprisoned the ships was caused by the denialist consensus imposed by reactionary elements, who had successfully promulgated their denialist claims.
Denialists were only able to promote their minority opinions because the world’s governments have been so irresponsible as to permit them to express their contrarian views to the general public, whose opinions count for nothing, on any subject.
However, at least the Guardian newspaper and the BBC do not indulge in such irresponsible behaviour as to present any unsanctioned theories or facts to their readers or viewers.
Without doubt, if the governments of the world had outlawed any expression of dissent towards the cult of global warming, as many supporters of the cult within the “reality based community” wish, with draconian punishment for contradicting their edicts, then Professor Turley would have encountered no sea-ice, only open ocean, as Mawson did in 1912, before a century of carbon dioxide emissions had raised global temperatures to their current level.
Blame for the disaster encountered by the climate scientists and tourists as well as the damage to their consensus based global warming, lies not with Professor Turley, but with those who irresponsibly publish supposedly objective facts, which they claim define objective reality, as though such a term had any real-world meaning.
It is clear that until more draconian censorship of denialists is enacted, reality will never conform to the climate simulations, which the climate scientists and socialist activists have crafted to reflect their consensus of what the world should be, in accordance to their mutable laws of physics.
Why when all the ice is melting and will be gone in *&%$£(*? years do you need to spend money that can be used for junkets and freeloaders on new ice breaking ships?Spot the SARC.
It is actually a good point. No SARC is needed.
Ice breaking ships are a very large expense – why waste your money on it when there are other countries for an emergency. And the cost per year will be perceived to be higher if their useful working life is reduced.
I like how Turney/they keep saying no one is/was in any danger.
There was hull damage on the Shokalskiy. It was above the water line, but what is above the water line in a wavy ocean where ice is tilting the ship as the pictures show.
The hull damage could just have easily been 2 metres lower and 2 metres longer and the ship could have sunk. Then everyone would have been out on the sea ice for days, possibly getting wet at some point, before rescue would have been possible.
I call that extreme danger.
pat
January 7, 2014 5:12 am
7 Jan: BBC: Antarctic ships escape from ice trap as weather changes
The Russian research ship Akademik Shokalskiy and Chinese icebreaker Xue Long have broken free from Antarctic ice where they had been stranded for several days.
The Russian ship’s captain said a crack had appeared in the ice after a change in wind direction…
“We’re going slowly and zig-zagging, we’ve already moved more than 20 [nautical] miles,” Captain Igor Kiselyov of the Russian ship told Itar-Tass news agency.
“It’s tough going so far, a lot of mist, visibility is no more than 500 metres,” he said.
He confirmed that the Chinese ship was also moving and that Akademik Shokalskiy was just north of it.
“It may catch up with us – in that case, we’ll follow in its wake. But if not, we’ll get out together, independently,” he said… http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25635690
Ulrich Elkmann
January 7, 2014 5:31 am
KevinK says:
January 6, 2014 at 6:18 pm
The biggest problem is that it is technically a dessert
+++++++++++++
Love that typo.
Do you think any of those Ph.D. students will get a dessertation out of this?
negrum
January 7, 2014 5:42 am
john says:
January 7, 2014 at 2:40 am
—–
Very well put.
I won’t post the link here, but for those interested in searching there is one of those Hitler movie dubs making the rounds featuring this expedition. The clip is NSFW, but otherwise reasonably amusing (for the admittedly overplayed genre).
Pat and all,
The “Aurora Australis” continues on its original mission to resupply the Casey station. Turney the Turkey and his 51 compatriots are Antarctic-bound, with a nice long cold cruise before they even start back to Tasmania. If they had stayed on their charter they would have gotten home weeks earlier, ah, the delicious irony still continues…
The Casey resupply mission looks like it faces some difficulties: We are now only hours away from Casey and the commencement of Casey station resupply part 2. We have a small weather window from our arrival at midnight until noon tomorrow or until the wind increases to our operational limits of the watercraft and crane. In an attempt to stay awake longer last night with the thought of sleeping later in today a Quentin Tarantino movie marathon was run overnight. All personnel working tonight are now rested and looking forward to completing our task. With strong winds forecast over the next few days both shore based and ship based operations are ready to take advantage of opportunities that may arise to transfer cargo if the winds abate sufficiently. All opportunities are looked at within the parameters of safety, operational limits and fatigue management. We are also looking for a weather window to transfer 420,000 litres of SAB (Special Antarctic Blend) to complete the refuelling of the station. We have approximately 140 tonne of cargo to discharge to Casey and approximately 210 tonne of cargo to load to the ship. A number of roundtrip projects have a shore based component and we are working to maximise the opportunities for these projects to be completed in the time that we are at station. Cheers Leanne and Mark.
omo
January 7, 2014 11:02 am
EMPIRICIST, My apologies, but your lack of quotation marks or italics below the link did make it look like the words were your own, speaking in the present context.
Brian H
January 7, 2014 9:10 pm
The escapade has to be renamed. How about, “Spit on Mawson”?
Gail Combs
January 10, 2014 2:54 pm
James of the West says: @ January 6, 2014 at 2:26 pm
….Until the interglacial is finished the ice is going to continue to melt. Don’t Panic.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Actually if you take the longer view the ice is not melting glaciers are advancing.
Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic 2010
Miller et al
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, USA et al
…. Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present. Early Holocene summer sea ice limits were substantially smaller than their 20th century average, and the flow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean was substantially greater. As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers re-established or advanced, sea ice expanded…
A more recent paper looking at glaciers in Norway.
A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier January 2012
Kristian Vasskoga Øyvind Paaschec, Atle Nesjea, John F. Boyled, H.J.B. Birks
…. A multi-proxy numerical analysis demonstrates that it is possible to distinguish a glacier component in the ~ 8000-yr-long record, based on distinct changes in grain size, geochemistry, and magnetic composition…. This signal is …independently tested through a mineral magnetic provenance analysis of catchment samples. Minimum glacier input is indicated between 6700–5700 cal yr BP, probably reflecting a situation when most glaciers in the catchment had melted away, whereas the highest glacier activity is observed around 600 and 200 cal yr BP. During the local Neoglacial interval (~ 4200 cal yr BP until present), five individual periods of significantly reduced glacier extent are identified at ~ 3400, 3000–2700, 2100–2000, 1700–1500, and ~ 900 cal yr BP….
The authors of BOTH papers simply state that most glaciers likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, but the highest period of the glacial activity has been in the past 600 years. This is hardly surprising with ~9% less solar energy then during the Holocene Optimum.
Did those penguins give you permission to use their likeness on your blog? If not, you’d better expect a strongly worded (and completely clueless) email from the Australiasiantarctican International Association of Animals who live in really cold places any moment now….:)
HEH! “I’m Professor Turney!”
Meanwhile…the Antarctic sea ice extent continues to run WELL above 2 std dev above the 1981 – 2000 average…
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
Meanwhile in the real world we still don’t know if it is a boy or a girl.
http://www.martingrund.de/pinguine/pinguincam2.htm#1
Penguin suits remind of other classic bygone comedians
“that’s another fine mess you got us into Turney”
I can’t help myself any longer … I know the gents name but it keeps coming through my head as Professor Turkey.
Frank,
Sea ice yes, but land ice has been decreasing.
Emperor penguins bow to noone. They respond with haughty derision to those that deny their ice world.
Boy or a girl? In the Liberal-Greentard world, they are completely interchangeable!
The amounts of ice on land or sea are not static. They fluctuate naturally, like our climate, and our weather.
Is that uncovered moss on the side of the ship?
Damian,
The evidence of continental ice decreasing is dubious at best.
In 2000, The Independent reported that
“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”
I wonder if that was part of the “scientific consensus?”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
Is the Costa Concordia ready for Arctic duties yet?
I hear the quarters are amongst the best available for scientists.
…_
I visited a glacier some years ago. It was melting and with the current speed it would be gone pretty soon. My friends thought that it was becuase of co2. I can’t blame them for thinking that. It’s really hard to step back and look at the big picture. That same glacier had been melting and shrinking for more than 200 years, so it is absolutely normal that it still was. It had nothing to do with co2.
Anthony, you might also enjoy this short clip. Will the real Professor Turney please stand up. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPDeC7hyzRY
Turney makes a comment on Nature. He calls the Russian ship an “icebreaker”.
“Sitting in the ship’s lounge of the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis, safe with friends and colleagues and heading back to civilization, I can say it has been a remarkable journey.
For the past six weeks on board the Russian icebreaker MV Akademik Shokalskiy, my colleague Chris Fogwill and I have led a team of scientists, science communicators and volunteers on a voyage from the New Zealand subantarctic islands to the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The aim was to study various aspects of this vast, remote region to better understand its role in the Earth system, and communicate these results directly to the public. Yet most people only became aware of our work when we got stuck and had to be rescued.”
http://www.nature.com/news/this-was-no-antarctic-pleasure-cruise-1.14466
I ‘m sure he’s in deep doodoo and it playing a game of CYA.
The glaciers and land ice have been melting because we are in an interglacial period. The rate of melt is not changing much – we know this because of the rate of change of sea levels is relatively linear (since argo at least).
When sea level trend is flat or reducing for a few decades we are probably having a mini ice age and if that continues for a few hundred decades then it is an ice age and the interglacial is ended.
Until the interglacial is finished the ice is going to continue to melt. Don’t Panic.
History, facts and logic do not impact on true believers of any religion.
is playing
I love the helicopter producing the CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2. LOL. Brilliant!
Turney says:
“Since news of our plight raced around the world, I have been surprised by the level of criticism our scientific expedition has received. This was no pleasure cruise.”
What about his family? The non-climate science PHD students?
Damian says: January 6, 2014 at 1:29 pm
“Frank, Sea ice yes, but land ice has been decreasing.”
Ok, so when and where would that have been melting then? Where was all that heat coming from?
Would you please give coordinates for a 10,000 km^2 area where any significant decrease occured? And when was that?
My understanding is that we’re not allowed to drill in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge because the delicate caribou will be fatally disrupted by the presence of an oil well on about 1/10% of the land. Now, the caribou can deal with mosquitoes that extract one pint of blood a day out of them (whew, that’s gotta be itchy), and summertime temperatures that can occasionally climb in excess of 80 degrees (thus the mosquitoes), but they’re obviously more delicate than those sturdy penguins that have to deal with boatloads of trapped, ignorant ecotourists, and moronic climate scientists, along with multiple ice breakers to rescue them. Could it be that those caribou haven’t developed the same sense of derision to our ecowarriors that the penguins in the above photo have?
Add a rock’em sock’em robot to pummel a penguin!
heard a proAGW talking head on the bbc radio5 today ” …………ah but you see what happened was ….this sheet of ice which the ship got stuck in was “old ice”…….it was v close to the land u see,so the unusually strong winds blew back off the ridge & doubled the ice over to twice its usual thickness…..it was a “weather” event see, nothing to do with lack of warming,,,,” (ie wrong kind of ice) ps the dog ate my homework………
Turkey – “Sitting in the ship’s lounge of the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis, safe with friends and colleagues and heading back to civilization, I can say it has been a remarkable journey”.
No, it’s been an utterly shameful journey. A journey you had the cheek to name, “Spirit of Mawson” when it is the very antithesis of his spirit and the spirit of science.
No doubt the ship’s lounge is more to your taste as you and your party munches its way through the AA’s supplies.
Never to be allowed further south than 50 degrees would be a suitable restriction placed on your movements.
EMPIRICIST: Britains winter ends tomorrow) .It seems your knowledge of the calendar matches your grasp of meteorology. Winter doesn’t end until March 20th. Never mind, we aren’t put out, we already know that to you ‘warmists’ the truth is what you want it to be, and you will pluck any ‘fact’ from thin air to support your obsession. That’s why you are losing ground – the truth always wins out, now your next tactic is beginning to rear it’s ugly head on warmist supporting sites – banning comments that disagree with you – ALWAYS a sure sign that you are losing the argument
sounds like these “ICONIC” penguins didn’t leave a forwarding address:
from 5:55 in: Wilson on less penguins because there’s 70km of fast ice between where Mawson sailed in and where the sea is today. but as climate warms…etc etc:
Luck-Baker: climate change & the many ways it’s impacting the Antarctic’s animal & ecosystems.. is the underlying research question for all the biologists on the Expedition:
30 Dec: BBC Discovery – The Return to Mawson’s Antarctica – Part Three – BBC News
Producer: Andrew Luck-Baker
Ornithologist Kerry-Jayne Wilson discovers that an ***iconic breeding colony of Adelie penguins at Cape Denison, the rocky area where Douglas Mawson built his expedition hut, has depleted numbers as the fast ice has grown.
http://24allnews.com/discovery-the-return-to-mawsons-antarctica-part-three-bbc-news/
29 Dec: Guardian: Antarctic expedition: still icebound – what happens next is anyone’s guess
Like explorer Douglas Mawson 100 years ago, Alok Jha and the expedition he joined face a long wait to be rescued
Ornithologist Kerry-Jayne Wilson counted the populations of Adélie penguins. She found what she had feared – numbers in decline – and something worse: bodies of dead chicks littering the rookeries and many eggs not being properly incubated…
http://www.theguardian.com/world/antarctica-live/2013/dec/29/antarctica-expedition-ice-wait-rescue
2007: National Geographic: Anne Casselman: Adelie Penguins Extinct in a Decade in Some Areas?
Adélie penguins in Antarctica are in the midst of a major upheaval as climate change causes their icy habitat to warm up, experts say.
Some populations of the birds are thriving, but most are declining rapidly…
“That region has experienced the most rapid warming during winter on the planet,” said Bill Fraser, an ecologist with the Polar Oceans Research Group in Sheridan, Montana…
If the trend continues, Fraser predicts that Adélie penguins will be locally extinct within five to ten years…
http://news.nationalgeographic.com.au/news/2007/12/071228-penguins-extinct.html
Well, no. In East Antarctica, where Commonwealth Bay belongs to (the site Akademik Shokalskiy became stuck), ice sheet mass is actually increasing according to the IMBIE (Ice-sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise) 2012 experiment (by +57 ± 35 Gt/yr in 2003-2010). Misinformation is never welcome.
RE: icebreakers,
The Akademik Shokalsky was built for the Soviet Union as an ice-strengthened research ship. Her ice class is roughly similar to IACS Polar Class 6, “Summer/autumn operation in medium first-year ice which may include old ice inclusions”. These were probably the conditions they were expecting on their current trip.
Xue Long (“Snow Dragon”) is a Chinese research and supply vessel. She was built in the Ukraine as an ice-strengthened Arctic cargo ship, later modified and improved by the Chinese for her current work.
The Aurora Australis was designed in Finland and purpose-built in Australia as a research and supply ship for Antarctic waters. She is much better suited to work in polar regions than AS or QL, but not an icebreaker in the strictest sense of the word.
The Polar Star is a proper icebreaker. Old, but powerful enough and up to the job.
The cynic in me cannot help to notice that the Polar Star and her sister vessel have long needed a replacement, but funds have been lacking. Perhaps news footage of a successful rescue operation might now appeal to the American taxpayer and finally get things going?
Wow – after having read the Nature article – this ends as predicted. He will get credit, a publication in Nature and Science (or even more!) and will even get medals! Probably from AGU!
Why would Nature feel the need to cover what The Guardian has already done? Isn’t this a bit pathetic? I mean has Nature become a sensationalistic journal and feels the need to give Turney space for an article defending the trip?
Anthony – I think you should also write an article and submit it to Nature – this would be brilliant! Ah – maybe not – I guess you don’t have buddies there!!! Too funny.
Love the name change of the ice breaker, neat job.
But to turn the penguins into Greenies…
Don’t they have any rats on board?
Damian says: “Frank, Sea ice yes, but land ice has been decreasing.”
Damien: Put up or shut up. Cite your sources. Empirical data only. No models!
What did I say, ice breaker…. Russian Vodka Boat is a better description.
Okay, this is over-the-top ridiculous.
From the middle of the southern ocean at 63S in just a few hours, Turney gets an excuse letter published in the journal Nature. There is no scientific reason to publish this, only to push alarmist propaganda/excuses.
http://www.nature.com/news/this-was-no-antarctic-pleasure-cruise-1.14466
from the Nature piece:
“This encouraged people to follow our work, as seen by the number of hits received on the expedition website. In the past six weeks, http://www.spiritofmawson.com received 60,000 visits, driving traffic to our social media sites.”
how many of these these 60,000 visits were from CAGW sceptics after the ship got stuck!
But empiricist didn’t say that himself; he was quoting the Independent as having said that back in 2000 (in the spring, presumably):
Unfortunately, empiricist didn’t use the blockquote tag to indent his quotations, which would have prevented this misunderstanding.
And I like the”Top Turkey of the science World” on the bow…
Pat-
I feel like at least 1,000 of those hits have been MINE. LOL!
Bill-loved the article. I have some questions for Mr Turney after reading it. I imagine me interviewing him myself to be something like what follows:
Chris Turney says – http://www.nature.com/news/this-was-no-antarctic-pleasure-cruise-1.14466
“What went wrong for the Shokalskiy? Contrary to some reports, the ship was not frozen in but was pinned by remobilized sea ice that had been blown by fierce winds. Most importantly, the team is safe and we are incredibly grateful to the international effort to help us. “
“Could this have been avoided? The satellite data leading up to our arrival in Antarctica’s Commonwealth Bay indicated open clear water, and the area seemed to have been that way for some time. As the Shokalskiy attempted to leave, however, we found ourselves surrounded by a mass breakout of multi¬year ice. This was a major event, with the vessel surrounded by blocks of sea ice more than three metres thick, apparently arriving from the other side of the Mertz Glacier. Despite the best efforts of our captain, we could not find a route out. It was deeply frustrating. We had been caught just 2–4 nautical miles (3.7–7.4 kilometres) from the edge of the sea ice. And with pervasive southeasterly winds battering our location, this distance increased to 20 nautical miles within 48 hours.”
*************
Chris says-”the satellite data leading up to our arrival in Antarctica’s Commonwealth Bay indicated open clear water, and the area seemed to have been that way for some time.”
I say-The Shokalskiy never entered Commonwealth Bay. I say this because according to YOUR account Chris in the article, you say “we crossed some 65 kilometres of sea ice to deliver scientists and conservators to the historic base established by scientist and explorer Douglas Mawson a century ago.”
Chris says- The Shokalskiy got stuck “attempting to leave Commonwealth Bay”.
I say- It did NOT get stuck attempting to leave Commonwealth Bay. It got stuck attempting to leave the Watt Bay area, after you visited the Hodgeman Islets.
Chris says-when the storm hit them, “We had been just 2-4 nautical miles (3.7-7.4 kilometers) from the edge of the sea ice”
I say-You admit that you KNEW you were between the CONTINENT and 2-4 nautical miles worth of SEA ICE with a BLIZZARD coming that you KNEW would blow that 2-4 miles of ice AGAINST your ship. Come on, it’s just a scientific fact. Sea Ice moves when the wind blows.
We have video of you stopping to do an INTERVIEW, IN that blizzard with people still moving around behind you on the ice and in the Zodiak!
Chris says-“This distance increased to 20 nautical miles within 48 hours”.
I say, you were STUCK and motionless in the water less than 24 hours after you moved away from the shore ice.
I ASK-
Chris, have you examined the satellite images to determine exactly where 20 nautical miles worth of Sea Ice came from? (you know…like a scientist would)
Chris says-“Apparently from the other side of the Mertz Glacier”.
I ASK- Apparently? Is that a scientific designation based on evidence? Or just a guess? Did you examine the publicly available satellite images and determine for yourself that a 20 nautical mile-sized chunk of previously attached, multi year ice is now MISSING from the area on the other side of MG? Or did someone just tell you that and you liked it?
I ASK- If SOUTH-EAST wind was supposedly already blowing 2-4 miles of sea ice north and west… TOWARDS the coast (and into your ship between the ice and the coast) then how exactly does that same wind, break up a massive chunk of multi year ice, on the SOUTH WEST side of Mertz Glacier, then BLOW IT OUT towards the sea…AWAY from the coast in a south east direction (which would require a shift to a wind coming from the North and West) but as soon as it rounds the end of the glacier, it then CHANGES direction and is blown back in toward the coast, and into your ship, and pile up not just behind you from south and west of the ship, but also from the from the North and East side at the same time. (the side with the previous 2-4 miles of sea ice already there)
Chris says-“Guided by real-time satellite information, the team undertook an experiment across the Antarctic Convergence — a natural boundary between cold Antarctic and warmer subantarctic waters. By combining surface drifters with Argo floats (for measuring salinity and temperature), we have gained a unique snapshot of this important frontier.”
I ASK-Where was that REAL TIME satellite information during the 24 hours prior to you getting stuck? Did it tell you in REAL TIME that it was perfectly fine to move the ship east and south to the Hodgeman Islets at that particular time? What did it tell you the winds and the ice were doing in that area in REAL TIME?
You said the data “leading up to your arrival” NEAR “Commonwealth Bay indicated open, clear water, and the area seemed to have been that way for some time”. What did it say AFTER your arrival? Did it indicate that the water in that area was STAYING open and clear?
We all know that it had NOT told you that Chris, because you, and other passengers on board, reported PRIOR to getting stuck that you KNEW a blizzard was coming and that it was bringing the ICE with it. You and other passengers on the ship reported massive break ups of shore ice, almost every day you were on shore BEFORE you moved south and east in the ship, in fact, several times it was reported that they have gotten STUCK on the Argos with huge cracks developing in the “fast ice” and the ship having to move to another area to pick them up because the area where it dropped them off…is gone, or unsafe.
The idea that it would have taken a “Major event”-to get that ship stuck in sea ice, is laughable. Based on all the EMPIRICAL evidence prior to the day you got stuck, the only major requirement would be for the expedition leader of this trip to have his head so far up his ego that he was oblivious to the SCIENCE going on all around him.
Those Penguins are amazing creatures. The Emperor actually broods it eggs in the middle of winter, the males keep the eggs on their feet to keep them warm. Big “crowds” of the males (thousands) milling around in the dark keeping the eggs warm. Boy, talk about male bonding… The females go away to open water to feed. Then the females come back to feed the chicks when the eggs (and the weather) “breaks”. Does make you wonder how that behavior evolved? A couple of the boys just decided to stick it out all winter with the eggs? And they had an evolutionary advantage? Of course, that topic (evolution) is quite touchy, so I won’t go any further with it.
However, the penguins don’t seem all that smart. I have watched a string of them walking in a row (queue), the first penguin tripped over one of the few rocks around. Dang if ever other penguin in the row didn’t trip over the same rock… Just follow the leader kind of instinct; nobody seemed to notice they could just walk around the rock. Of course rocks are somewhat rare in their environment, so maybe nobody knew how to handle one (don’t be a fool, just walk around it).
And they play an interesting game of “chicken” when the time comes to jump into the water. The seals (leopard seal especially) are one of the main predators of penguins. Of course if a seal is cruising around the edge of an ice floe the first penguin to jump into the water is probably a meal. So, they all kind of “fake” jumping in to see if they can fool another penguin into jumping first and becoming the next “seal meal”. Once the first guy/gal jumps in, they all follow like a little waterfall of penguins.
I was on a successful Antarctic cruise (tourist only, we didn’t pretend to be scientists) a while back. An amazing place didn’t seem to be in much jeopardy back 20 years ago. The biggest problem is that it is technically a dessert, so any waste (garbage, sewage, etc.) never has enough moisture available to break down (bio-degrade) like what happens in moister places.
Cheers, Kevin.
DCA says:
January 6, 2014 at 2:33 pm
Turney says:
“Since news of our plight raced around the world, I have been surprised by the level of criticism our scientific expedition has received. This was no pleasure cruise.”
News of our plight? He planned it and he, and his buddies, own all of it.
Anthony-
How many hits has WUWT gotten in the past 6 weeks? Just curious 🙂
The following is an exchange through email I had while trying to get one to Turnkey.
I’m still waiting for a reply to the second one.
Start at the bottom.
Why? The emails not for you Alvin. I was directed to send any emails to Turnkey through you. With the simple understanding you’d pass it on. Because he’s trapped in the summer sea ice with his fellow tools and can’t read his emails. I’m buggered if I know why with the digital age we live in. Doesn’t seem to be able to get a weather report either. But thats another story that he’ll probably explain in person at the enquiry. So pass it on, its no skin of your nose. You’ll just be doing what you were told to do. Its not difficult. Cheers Leigh .
▼ Hide quoted text On Jan 3, 2014 10:11 PM, “Alvin Stone” wrote: Dear Leigh,
Please tell the turkey who wrote this that I certainly will not pass it on.
Cheers
Alvin Alvin Stone Media and Communications Manager Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW http://Www.climatescience.org.au [snip -personal info]
From: Leigh Date: Friday, 3 January 2014 8:10 PM To: Alvin Stone Subject: Fraud and its consequence
The turkey says you’ll pass it on Alvin Turkey, You’ve been exposed for what you are. Forever to be known as the “Black Knight” of the cult of the global warmism fraud and his ship of jesters. This “cruise” was not about science. It was about nothing less than hopefully gaining propaganda to advance the fraud that is the non exsistant threat of minuscule global warming. So minuscule , that fairdinkum scientists are having trouble putting a number to it over at least the last eighteen years. Some say longer. And let us not forget the potential free publicity for your “dodgy bob” carbon company. A simple Google search would have given you a heads up to information about the sea ice you desperately wanted not to be there. It has been increasing for over three decades. Up to the minute satellite pictures of the sea ice are freely available. But still you chose to continue putting every body’s life in danger. Including your own wife and children’s. Your a fraud turney nothing less nothing more. Like Gore and all those that seek to profit from this fraud, nothing less than jail would suffice. Yours and others who perpetuated this fraud has their judgement day rapidly approaching. We are onto you fraudsters and so it seems are your ilks allies at Fairfax. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lack-of-accountability-clouding-the-climate-change-debate-20140102-307ja.html In anger Leigh
Professor Turkey should be banished to spend a year in Western Australia’s hottest town of Marble Bar to research climate change, without the use of fossil fuels for air conditioning. On seconds thoughts, like the penguins, the locals would reject that idea. It’s forecast for 50C in the Pilbara the next few days says the scary ABC.
Marble bar just had 3 days below 39C last month, when 4 inches of rain fell during the recent cyclone that passed by.
I don’t get it.
[omo says:
January 6, 2014 at 3:30 pm
EMPIRICIST: Britains winter ends tomorrow) .It seems your knowledge of the calendar matches your grasp of meteorology.]
I am somewhat stunned that my post could have been so misunderstood. I was poking fun at the vanishing snow claims and the “scientific consensus.”
I should have clearly marked the quote as a quote as roger points out.
Damian says: January 6, 2014 at 1:29 pm
“Frank, Sea ice yes, but land ice has been decreasing.”
———————————————-
IPCC AR5 sea level is approx constant (or increasing slowly) during the little ice age (1700-1850).
That means despite cooling oceans and increasing glaciers, Antarctica land ice was melting even then – and will do so until the next ice age.
See figure 13.3 in
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter13.pdf
DiggerUK says:
January 6, 2014 at 2:00 pm
Is the Costa Concordia ready for Arctic duties yet?
I hear the quarters are amongst the best available for scientists.
DiggerUK,
She’s just about ready for her first load of eco-tourists…er…climatologists.
Befitting her new duties, she’s been renamed the Costa Bundle. An alternate name, Frosta Byte was rejected for reasons they couldn’t quite put a finger on. Or a toe, or nose, or any appendage, for that matter….. Funny, that.
7 Jan: Xinhua: Icebreaker prepares for Antarctica breakout
The trapped Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, warmed up its engine and widened a path through the ice on Monday, preparing to break out of frozen floes in Antarctica, as weather conditions may turn favorable before Wednesday.
“The path is up to 80 meters wide and 1 kilometer long, which will help the vessel in breaking free,” Qu Tanzhou, director of the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration under the State Oceanic Administration, said on Monday.
Although the southeast wind did not turn into a favorable west wind as expected on Monday, the heavy snow of the past few days turned to sleet, which melted parts of the ice floes, Qu said.
“It’s good news!”…
“The ship is about 14 km from the nearby open water,” Wang said.
If the Xuelong breaks through the stretch of thick ice floes of about 3.7 km long, it sail out of the ice toward the open water, Wang (Wang Jianzhong, captain of the Xuelong) said…
But Qu emphasized that there are uncertainties about the weather in Antarctica and its influence on the floes.
“It is unknown whether the expected west wind will be strong enough to loosen the floes surrounding the ship and how the weather will affect the water currents and icebergs,” Qu said…
Qu hoped Xuelong will break free on its own and continue the scientific research and site inspection for the country’s new Antarctic base.
He added it was not yet known what impact the incident would have on scientific programs…
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-01/07/c_133024539.htm
7 Jan: News Ltd: Rescued Antarctic group due home on Jan 22
But the effort that rescued 52 expeditioners, many of them from Australia and New Zealand, will delay the Australian Antarctic Division’s shipping schedule, including the resupply of Antarctic stations…
The rescue disrupted the resupply mission of the Aurora Australis to Australia’s Casey station as it diverted 800 nautical miles to help the stricken vessel…
Australian Antarctic Division director Dr Tony Fleming said the ship should be ready to head back to Tasmania about January 13, arriving in Hobart about January 22.
“This is about two weeks behind schedule and will mean delays to the rest of the season,” he said in a statement…
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/rescued-antarctic-group-due-home-on-jan-22/story-e6frfku9-1226796686198
the full statement from the Australian Antarctic Division:
7 Jan: Australian Antarctic shipping schedule revised
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/media/news/2014/australian-antarctic-shipping-schedule-revised
Turney doesn’t apply the precautionary principle when it comes to himself.
Love the picture and many of the comments, have had a good laugh.
DanJ says:
January 6, 2014 at 4:10 pm
RE: icebreakers,
Thanks for the info on icebreakers, the last part about the American ones being old and in need of replacement– Why when all the ice is melting and will be gone in *&%$£(*? years do you need to spend money that can be used for junkets and freeloaders on new ice breaking ships?
Spot the SARC.
James Bull
“I visited a glacier some years ago. It was melting and with the current speed it would be gone pretty soon. My friends thought that it was becuase of co2. I can’t blame them for thinking that.”
Yeah I went to the NZ glaciers, and though “Wow, these things really HAVE receded a lot!” Then I saw where the line was in 1847 (before CO2s were invented). It receded just as quickly before as it did after – the thing had been going out backwards since the LIA, and indeed since the Ice Age.
“Turney doesn’t apply the precautionary principle when it comes to himself.”
Professor, would you like some aloe vera for that burrrrrnnnnnnnnn
One of the central tenets of post-modernism is that there is no objective truth.
Rather, reality is a social construct, which is presumably achieved by consensus.
Post-modernist science first flourished in sociology which expanded to encompass various grievance studies, LGBT studies and others of similar ilk, where rather that observing objective reality, facts are created by consensus and then treated as immutable, except when their mutability is politically expedient.
Post-modernism successfully encroached upon physical science when its utility was recognised by climatologists.
Immediately, climate scientists created, by consensus, their social construct, the terrible spectre of an earth destroyed by catastrophic anthropogenic climate change, which would necessarily result from mankind’s use of fossil fuels.
Computer simulations were created to further refine their visions of an earth with rapidly increasing temperatures, melted polar ice sheets, rising sea levels, inundation of coastal areas, droughts, floods, more snow, less snow, more hurricanes, fewer hurricanes and millions of climate refugees.
In accordance with post-modernism, when the predicted disasters did not occur, this did not require modification of the theory achieved by consensus, it only required modification of the data, which climate scientists have never considered to be immutable, in any case.
Realising that many people cling bitterly to the outmoded concept of objective reality, climate scientists immediately began to surreptitiously alter the historical temperature record, lowering temperatures recorded in the past, so as to ensure that the present is warmer than any time in history.
Inconvenient implications of this theory, regarding accuracy of written history, detailing the supposed activities of our ancestors are discretely ignored as is the truly inconvenient seeming phase relationship between atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and atmospheric temperature.
One old-fashioned and reactionary physicist postulated a thought experiment, wherein a cat in a box was considered to occupy all possible states of existence, aliveness or deadness, until the box was opened, whereupon, it would immediately occupy its most probable state, when observed by an observer.
Post-modernists would postulate that Schrodinger’s cat would occupy whatever state was dictated by the consensus of 97% of observers.
It is clear, since reality is created by consensus, that Professor Turley was quite correct in asserting that the sea-ice in Antarctic waters is disappearing and that therefore the inconvenient entrapment of the Akademik Shokalskiy and Xue Long was not due to any failings of their global warming theory or irresponsible behaviour upon his part.
Rather, the apparent sea-ice which seemingly imprisoned the ships was caused by the denialist consensus imposed by reactionary elements, who had successfully promulgated their denialist claims.
Denialists were only able to promote their minority opinions because the world’s governments have been so irresponsible as to permit them to express their contrarian views to the general public, whose opinions count for nothing, on any subject.
However, at least the Guardian newspaper and the BBC do not indulge in such irresponsible behaviour as to present any unsanctioned theories or facts to their readers or viewers.
Without doubt, if the governments of the world had outlawed any expression of dissent towards the cult of global warming, as many supporters of the cult within the “reality based community” wish, with draconian punishment for contradicting their edicts, then Professor Turley would have encountered no sea-ice, only open ocean, as Mawson did in 1912, before a century of carbon dioxide emissions had raised global temperatures to their current level.
Blame for the disaster encountered by the climate scientists and tourists as well as the damage to their consensus based global warming, lies not with Professor Turley, but with those who irresponsibly publish supposedly objective facts, which they claim define objective reality, as though such a term had any real-world meaning.
It is clear that until more draconian censorship of denialists is enacted, reality will never conform to the climate simulations, which the climate scientists and socialist activists have crafted to reflect their consensus of what the world should be, in accordance to their mutable laws of physics.
James Bull says at January 7, 2014 at 1:26 am
It is actually a good point. No SARC is needed.
Ice breaking ships are a very large expense – why waste your money on it when there are other countries for an emergency. And the cost per year will be perceived to be higher if their useful working life is reduced.
The russian vessel is now free from ice and moves.
http://top.rbc.ru/society/07/01/2014/898317.shtml
the chinese vessel with the climate scientists is still trapped.
I like how Turney/they keep saying no one is/was in any danger.
There was hull damage on the Shokalskiy. It was above the water line, but what is above the water line in a wavy ocean where ice is tilting the ship as the pictures show.
The hull damage could just have easily been 2 metres lower and 2 metres longer and the ship could have sunk. Then everyone would have been out on the sea ice for days, possibly getting wet at some point, before rescue would have been possible.
I call that extreme danger.
7 Jan: BBC: Antarctic ships escape from ice trap as weather changes
The Russian research ship Akademik Shokalskiy and Chinese icebreaker Xue Long have broken free from Antarctic ice where they had been stranded for several days.
The Russian ship’s captain said a crack had appeared in the ice after a change in wind direction…
“We’re going slowly and zig-zagging, we’ve already moved more than 20 [nautical] miles,” Captain Igor Kiselyov of the Russian ship told Itar-Tass news agency.
“It’s tough going so far, a lot of mist, visibility is no more than 500 metres,” he said.
He confirmed that the Chinese ship was also moving and that Akademik Shokalskiy was just north of it.
“It may catch up with us – in that case, we’ll follow in its wake. But if not, we’ll get out together, independently,” he said…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25635690
KevinK says:
January 6, 2014 at 6:18 pm
The biggest problem is that it is technically a dessert
+++++++++++++
Love that typo.
Do you think any of those Ph.D. students will get a dessertation out of this?
john says:
January 7, 2014 at 2:40 am
—–
Very well put.
Every one of the comments on Turney’s Nature article is negative.
http://www.nature.com/news/this-was-no-antarctic-pleasure-cruise-1.14466
I won’t post the link here, but for those interested in searching there is one of those Hitler movie dubs making the rounds featuring this expedition. The clip is NSFW, but otherwise reasonably amusing (for the admittedly overplayed genre).
Pat and all,
The “Aurora Australis” continues on its original mission to resupply the Casey station. Turney the Turkey and his 51 compatriots are Antarctic-bound, with a nice long cold cruise before they even start back to Tasmania. If they had stayed on their charter they would have gotten home weeks earlier, ah, the delicious irony still continues…
Turneys Turkeys? LOL.
Xue Long has reached open waters:
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/trapped-ships-break/946092.html
The Casey resupply mission looks like it faces some difficulties:
We are now only hours away from Casey and the commencement of Casey station resupply part 2. We have a small weather window from our arrival at midnight until noon tomorrow or until the wind increases to our operational limits of the watercraft and crane. In an attempt to stay awake longer last night with the thought of sleeping later in today a Quentin Tarantino movie marathon was run overnight. All personnel working tonight are now rested and looking forward to completing our task. With strong winds forecast over the next few days both shore based and ship based operations are ready to take advantage of opportunities that may arise to transfer cargo if the winds abate sufficiently. All opportunities are looked at within the parameters of safety, operational limits and fatigue management. We are also looking for a weather window to transfer 420,000 litres of SAB (Special Antarctic Blend) to complete the refuelling of the station. We have approximately 140 tonne of cargo to discharge to Casey and approximately 210 tonne of cargo to load to the ship. A number of roundtrip projects have a shore based component and we are working to maximise the opportunities for these projects to be completed in the time that we are at station. Cheers Leanne and Mark.
EMPIRICIST, My apologies, but your lack of quotation marks or italics below the link did make it look like the words were your own, speaking in the present context.
The escapade has to be renamed. How about, “Spit on Mawson”?
James of the West says: @ January 6, 2014 at 2:26 pm
….Until the interglacial is finished the ice is going to continue to melt. Don’t Panic.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Actually if you take the longer view the ice is not melting glaciers are advancing.
A more recent paper looking at glaciers in Norway.
The authors of BOTH papers simply state that most glaciers likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, but the highest period of the glacial activity has been in the past 600 years. This is hardly surprising with ~9% less solar energy then during the Holocene Optimum.