Gore’s “ice free Arctic” prediction from five years ago, falsified by nature itself
The great bloviator has been pwned again, by the actions of nature itself. In Germany, five years ago this past Saturday, Al Gore claimed that the ““Entire north polar ice cap will be gone in 5 years” .
Also, in Gore’s Dec. 10, 2007 “Earth has a fever” speech, Gore referred to a prediction by U.S. climate scientist Wieslaw Maslowski that the Arctic’s summer ice could “completely disappear” by 2013 due to global warming caused by carbon emissions.
He’s been proven wrong on those two predictions, and he’s likely to be proven wrong on a third, when he moved the goalposts in 2009 in this video.
While we had a new record low in 2012 for the summer minimum, the 2013 rebound made Gore’s predictions a certain failure.
![AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/amsre_sea_ice_extent_l1.png?resize=640%2C400)
Arctic sea ice withing a standard deviation of the 1981-2010 average line:
![N_stddev_timeseries[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/n_stddev_timeseries1.png?resize=640%2C512)
![global.daily.ice.area.withtrend[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/global-daily-ice-area-withtrend1.jpg?resize=640%2C246)
To convince his followers in the future, maybe Mr. Gore will have to resort to airbrushing out the Arctic ice cap, like he did on his book: Not finding any, Gore airbrushes in hurricanes for his new book:
Above: Al Gore’s book cover foldout with 4 scary hurricanes, some rotating the wrong direction – hey where’s the ice? (Image courtesy of Dr. Ryan Maue).
With such a track record, one wonders why anyone but the “galactically stupid” would listen to Gore, the great bloviator, on climate any more.
James Lovelock was right about Gore, this from Climate Depot:
Climate Shocker: In 2007, Lovelock Predicted Global Warming Doom: ‘Billions of us will die; few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in Arctic’
There are too many Ehrlichs running amok in the media.
UPDATE: More goalpost moving. Now the new year is 2016 according to this story.
UPDATE2: It seems that it just isn’t extent and area that rebounded in 2013, but volume of the sea ice as well, something we’ve been told by top climate advocates was not likely to happen:
Data from Europe’s Cryosat spacecraft suggests there were almost 9,000 cu km of ice at the end of this year’s melt season.
This is close to 50% more than in the corresponding period in 2012.
Related articles
- Great Moments in Predictions — Al Gore’s Ice Forecast (coyoteblog.com)
- FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY… Al Gore Predicted the North Pole Will Be Ice Free in 5 Years (thegatewaypundit.com)
- Al Gore’s 2007 prediction that all arctic ice would be gone by 2014 now proven to be alarming fear mongering (sgtreport.com)
The committed listen because it is what they want to hear
Like the American left, the alarmists promote failures. How else to explain Glieck and lewandowsky?
The Earth has a fever and what we need is “More CowBell”
Can someone please turn up the heat?
And its not just the ice area. ESAs Cryosat-2 data published today shows almost 50% increase in sea ice volume from 2012 to 2013.
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/CryoSat/Arctic_sea_ice_up_from_record_low
Climate is all the talk – but weather is what we get. Sound familiar, Al?
Yet another Dr. Smith ” Oh the Pain” moment!
I think this could be an award handed out to all those who blatantly extrapolate or misrepresent facts, knowingly or not, and get publicly exposed for their unmitigated stupidity.
The press are outright unrepentant liars.
WUWT ought to point to a liars list. There needs to be a database of government officials, who lie or repeat lies about the climate.
ie: Name of government official —- quote of lie —- copy or reference.
There will be a day when the liars will be held to account. It is coming.
Same with the press. The special freedoms enjoyed by so-called press are not protected if they are abused by journalist liars.
Canada is going after lobby groups that also claim that they are Green-Charities.
The worm has turned. Someday liars will be held in disdain as they ought.
We need a separate entry on the sea ice volume going up significantly. That is 100% counter to what we’ve been told will happen.
I think that one of the most remarkable things was how consistent the Arctic ice was this year.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
First time for a long while that it stayed as straight line as that for a whole year.
What? The original Youtube video disappeared? Gee, I wonder why.
They wouldn’t be trying to keep something from us, would they? Noooooo, of course not.
LOL.
And the man was once a heartbeat away …
All publicity is good publicity when you’re making $175,000 a speech, no matter how much nonsense it is. I’m sure Al doesn’t give a damn what happens in the Arctic.
The Earth had a fever but is well on the way to recovery.
Do you think anyone will remember the Nobel Laureate’s prediction? Especially not the NL hisself. Besides the goal posts have moved and we can no move on to more important things.
Gore has made scads of money on the scam and is not recognized as doing so.
“Speed says:
December 16, 2013 at 11:27 am
And the man was once a heartbeat away…”
Now THAT’s chilling.
What? Sea ice ~volume~ has also increased? But, but, didn’t we hear not long ago that “Yeah, sea ice extent has increased – but the ice is thinner. So the volume is down. So it’s still worse than we thought.” So you’re saying that their attempt to move the goal posts has also failed?
Al Gore on What up with that?
http://screen.yahoo.com/al-gore-000000893.html
Did you notice on that ridiculous picture that Panama is missing? And that there’s either a lake or part of the ocean covering the interior of Greenland? And that half of Florida is missing?
Intersting. This years maximum global sea ice area a few weeks ago was the highest since 1996 and higher than e.g. 1979.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/global-daily-ice-area-withtrend1.jpg
Rather than educating the public the press has sadly taken to thrilling the public, (as if truth isn’t entertaining enough.)
For example, this might be a thrilling headline: “AREA OF ICE AT NORTH POLE DOUBLES SINCE SEPTEMBER!!!” However it fails to inform people that the same thing happens every year. (Also you likely would not see it because it does not promote the cause of Global Warming. However, if you could somehow prove Global Warming had caused it, then it might blaze from headlines.)
TomB says:
“What? Sea ice ~volume~ has also increased? But, but, didn’t we hear not long ago that ‘Yeah, sea ice extent has increased – but the ice is thinner. So the volume is down. So it’s still worse than we thought’.”
My thoughts exactly. The alarmist crowd has been wrong about every prediction they have made over the years.
At what point will they admit that their presumption was completely wrong? Honest scientists admit it when they’re shown to be wrong…
…oh, wait. I see the problem there.
Tell Al we’re planning to ski the pyramids next week on the snow caused no doubt by/global warming.
From the 2016 projection paper:
“The project, based out of the US Naval Postgraduate School’s Department of Oceanography, uses complex modelling techniques that make its projections more accurate than others.”
——
At first this sounds impressive, until you realize all the other model have absolutely zero accuracy.
Even the BBC has been reporting the ice rebound through gritted teeth 🙂
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25383373
Reading the comments by the alarmists is quite amusing 😀
Al Gore, still peddling his lies now says he’s more optimistic than ever that the issue has reached “a tipping point” (this from an August interview). Here’s one of his gems:
The conversation on global warming has been stalled because a shrinking group of denialists fly into a rage when it’s mentioned. It’s like a family with an alcoholic father who flies into a rage every time a subject is mentioned and so everybody avoids the elephant in the room to keep the peace. But the political climate is changing. He does live in a fantasy world.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/08/21/al-gore-explains-why-hes-optimistic-about-stopping-global-warming/
Bruce Cobb @12:52 pm ,
I hate to day it , but he could be right about the political climate :
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/12/16/Podesta-White-House
That should be say , not day .
What I noticed on the BBC article is that the increase was explained as being wind-drive – the ice was not being blow into warmers waters where it would melt as it had done previously. I doubt it it will get much air-time, but at least the impact of wind (as opposed to temperature) made it into the story.
I think all that new sea ice must have found its way into my backyard after yesterday’s big storm 😉
(Headed for a chilly -7 F tonight…this December is among the coldest I’ve experienced in western New Hampshire since I’ve lived here).
“Nature proves Al Gore wrong again”
A tautology wrapped in the self-evident and encased by the bleeding obvious.
November 5th 2008 I was attending Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco, listening to Al Gore claiming the north polar ice cap would be gone in five years.
Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hI5t3Uwfkk&t=26m58s
Being picky, but I think that, from the graphs presented, all we can say about Arctic Ice Extent is that it is within 2 standard deviations of the reference line.
Is it actually within 1 SD?
As for the rest of the piece, well, I think Al Gore sells snake oil and is an utterly reprehensible individual.
That will teach them a lesson…….to not use anything less than a 20 year prediction, when big money is on the line.
It’s worse than we thought.
Jam tomorrow?
It’s been a while since The Gore Effect last struck. Is God showing His sense of irony again?
At the risk of repeating myself –
If all the Arctic ice was to melt, so what?!
(and yes it’s a rhetorical question)
Reblogged this on wwlee4411 and commented:
Global Warming truth.
About Update — It’s almost idiotic. Being a grad of the Naval Post Graduate School I’m ashamed that they put something like that out, regardless of the sloppy reporting in the article
1 – “US NAVY predicts” The US Navy did nothing of the sort. The article itself dispels that idea in the first paragraph. It was work funded by the Dept of Energy, not the US NAVY so the title should have read “US ENERGY DEPT predicts”. Guess they thought US NAVY had more impact.
2 – I’m still having a hard time believing this – the guy gives a 2016 +- 3 years so, the arctic ‘could’ be ‘almost ice free’ anywhere from 2013 – 2019. What exactly does ‘almost ice free’ mean? It also takes a ‘estimated trend’ and an ‘estimated volume’ of all of TWO MONTHS data from Oct-Nov 2007 and ‘projects’ that across a nine year period. Seriously? How on earth do you even get a trend with only two data points? Well, it certainly made the calculations a lot easier 😉
The reporter also seems to miss or purposely ignore what I thought was the most interesting part of the paper – the part that politely says that current GCMs (not that he even knows what GCM stands for – calling them Global Climate Models) are a load of crap.
“The paper is highly critical of global climate models (GCM) and even the majority of regional models, noting that “many Arctic climatic processes that are omitted from, or poorly represented in, most current-generation GCMs” which “do not account for important feedbacks among various system components.””
Albert Arnold Gore, Jr. on March 31, 1948, he followed in his father’s footsteps and ran for the same office in 1976, getting elected four times. http://bit.ly/1c80oog
He does not care. He made his money during the five years. Got is Nobel and all that. What are they going to do? Take it back!?
It is the same with e.g. Iraqi WMD. They lied about it. They did what they wanted to Iraq. Then they finally agree that there were no WMD. But so what? They got what they wanted. They don’t care about being proven “wrong”. These people have not pride, shame or humility. It did not help the dead Iraqis and US troops that the truth “came out in the end”.
My point? Unless we punish the administration which lied to us and unless we punish Gore for all of his BS which is killing people too, then this will happen over again.
Pattern of politics: Lie. Do what you want on the basis of the lie. The truth is found out. Nobody is punished and what was done cannot be reversed. Repeat forever.
Thanks Bruce Cobb. Al Gore talks about civil rights, but seems immune to the wisdom of forgoers, such as Gandhi and Mandela. Instead of reconciliation between people, Al resorts to division of his own nation.
It is a mystery to me why US media still pays any attention to him. Are they cashing in on AGW controversy or have they moved on to Al’s undisputed ‘ridicule, which stings’-expertise?
It’s very good news that this clip has been found– very!
I recently asked Walt Meier now of NASA GISS if he could comment on the “normal” year for sea ice the world just enjoyed. This is what he said about global sea ice: “A plot of global sea ice is just not informative or useful.” Now many here are fans of Walt, and I am a fan of his willingness to engage with skeptics (including myself). But it is very hard to accept, even to imagine, that a scientist feels that global sea ice has no informative or useful purpose in a discussion of climate.
I can guess who is doing the “casting” for those few breeding pairs…
I’m waiting for the next alarmism out of the Royal Society so I can say, “It’s Nurse than we thought.”
So, I posted the Cryosat data shoing a strong year-over-year increase in Arctic ice volume on another forum, and you would not believe the negative reaction I got. Really astounding. You would think that such news might be worth celebrating, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Question: What year of the 21st century had the greatest annual average global sea ice area?
Answer: 2013, which is the only year with a global average anomaly above the 1979-2008 average.
http://friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/GlobalSeaIceArea.jpg
Year Anomaly
2000 -0.026
2001 -0.136
2002 -0.588
2003 -0.040
2004 -0.064
2005 -0.641
2006 -1.019
2007 -1.149
2008 -0.368
2009 -0.452
2010 -0.681
2011 -1.359
2012 -0.905
2013 0.058
Needs more cow bell? Here is a clip of them playing live at the Filmore
Enjoy…
Important to keep in mind. Roman or Minoan Optima? Bring it on!
No such luck, I fear.
Just wait. When those countercurrent storms The Great Bloviator predicts start up, we are doomed. They will cause the jet stream to RUN THE OPPOSITE WAY, which, I am convinced, means the end is nigh./sark God, when can we send these charlatans to Joe Arpaio’s prison? Al would be so cute in pink.
And temperatures across Alaska have been dropping for a decade:
http://akclimate.org/sites/default/files/StateWide_Change_1949-2012_F.png
wws says:
December 16, 2013 at 11:57 am
“Did you notice on that ridiculous picture …”
Did you not notice the image is a fake. Mention was made of the anti-cyclonic rotation of the storms but the entire idea is that ice melts and sea level rises and parts of the world disappear under the risen ocean. The “artist” must have had a fun time with this image. Gore is a nut case but the person responsible for the image did nice work.
I like to repeat this tidbit since WUWT gathers followers across time, and global-warming cultist occasionally check the site out:
Gore makes big money off of global warming. He is one of two leading guys that developed an investment advising form, “Generation Investment Management, Limited.” “Limited” in the UK is similar to our “incorporated.”
If you are a global warming true believer, go see who the two big bosses of GIM are. Gore is one. Then, figure out how GIM makes their money. They are brokers.
They tell very large investors how to invest their money. The house never loses. The broker always gets a commission.
Imagine a .01% fee on top of the billions managed by GIM. More income than will be reported on my tax return this year.
Gore is excessively, exceedingly wealthy from the AGW cult, on top of whatever his daddy gave him.
AL GORE — AMERICAN BLOVIATOR
Forever, forever its all Al Gore
Now, in the future and always before
Spinning himself with the words he can whirl
The earth is his oyster, he is its pearl
— Carbon dioxide is filling the air!
And there’s no escaping — IT’S EVERYWHERE!
It’s up in the sky, it’s under your bed
Its deep in your lungs, comes out of your head!
The polar caps melt from CO2 heat
The seas will be rising twenty five feet
The Ocean Conveyor ceasing to flow
Where water goes stagnant algae with grow!
A growth in plant life that carbon promotes!
Green seas where sargasso seamlessly floats!
If acid rain scared you — THINK ABOUT THIS!
Oceans acidic and warmer than piss!
The teddy bears — Wait! — the polar bears drown
As carbon goes up, survival goes down!
Whatever Al says he fully believes
First before others himself he deceives
Then sure of THE TRUTH his dictums are hurled
Like God, by The Word, creating the world!
— The sky! — It is falling upon your head!
Sharknados increasing with millions dead!
(That’s in a movie — I make movies too
Seeing’s believing so all of its true!)
Weather is weirding and its everyplace!
Our footprint of carbon on Gaia’s face!
No refuge! No sanctum! None can escape
Gaia’s revenge for Capitalist rape!
Science is settled! We know all the facts!
These super storms need a new super tax!
The U.N. has spoken! — the models are right!
Peer reviewed models! — Mankind is a blight!
So go buy a bike and pedal to work!
2000 WAS MINE! AND BUSH IS A JERK!
Al’s actions say more than bluster explains
An angel with wings! — he boards private planes
Mansions and autos, a party time yacht
Al owns such but preaches — others must not!
Eugene WR Gallun
(Note: Al’s yacht is named BIO SOLAR ONE — and known to all as BS ONE.)
Jim Watson says:
December 14, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Five years is JUST out of reach for a one-term Obama.
I guess we’ll have to elect Obama to a second term now, just to make sure he has time to get the job done
————–
Jim please don’t ever post something like that again
Poor Al. http://noconsensus.org/comic-relief.php
Uh oh; Those cute polar bears are going to starve now. All of that ice covering the water prevents polar bears from snacking on poor seals.
/sarc!
P Walker says:
December 16, 2013 at 1:24 pm
That should be say , not day .
___________________________
Glad it was a typo, I thought you had a cold.
Eugene WR Gallun says:
December 16, 2013 at 7:24 pm
Another great poem Eugene; I’m saving that one as well. One typo though –
“Where water goes stagnant algae with grow!”
I believe you mean “will grow”.
TomB says:
December 16, 2013 at 11:44 am
Well, let’s just say that since the goal posts are perpetually five years in the future, there’ll never be anything to worry about.
Bruce Cobb
I never notice the flaws in my typing — no matter how hard i look — until I post.
Yes — should be — algae will grow
also — CO2 heat — should be — CO2’s heat
I hold the knife at my throat. If another error shows up I will have to use it.
Eugene WR Gallun
I notice over the past month or so that the Bering Strait is reluctant to freeze despite air temps easily cold enough. Seems like a significant northward flow of Pacific water thru the Strait is still occurring.
“Where water goes stagnant algae [will] grow!”
When the water is stagnant, the scum floats to the top.
Which is what happens to peacetime military forces.
Here is something from Professor Wadhams. He is the guy that firmly predicts an ice-free Arctic in 2016 at the latest.
Here he is on some sort of death spiral. I wonder what he thought about the September Arctic minimum compared to 2012 or 2007??? 😉
Smart greens just talking about diminishing ice cap mass in Greenland and Antarctica and brush over sea ice.
Surely the Nobel prize committee must be considering withdrawing the prize given to this fraudster. He was awarded the prize for promoting the global warming scam in order to make himself $100m dollars; a scam which also played a large part in leading governments around the world into spending $Billions unnecessarily in global warming mitigation. The Nobel committee ignored the many real scientists around the world who strongly opposed Gores scaremongering views on the subject. If the Nobel Prize committee allow it to stand then the value of all future awards will be seriously diminished in the eyes of the public, which would be very sad indeed.
beng says:
December 17, 2013 at 8:02 am
Another example being in previous years when Iceland is faced with extremely cold air for days and even weeks, but the SSTs don’t cool with the Atlantic ocean maintaining heat content.
Al Gore reminds me of the end of Send in the Clowns: Well, maybe next year.
Ok folks – a LITTLE lesson here:
When you post a link to a video that absolute smashes these fools, MAKE A COPY of the video. Note that BOTH videos in this thread have now been removed from YouTube and a once great link and video is NOW GONE and not available for our fun and games.
Again, the video has now been removed. Most basic screen capture software will record video sound + video quite well. So if this is a GREAT third party video – please please please make a copy as you KNOW it going to be removed the instant some place like WWUT posts a link.
Now we only have dead video links here and MUCH of the fun + impact is gone.
albertkallal said, “When you post a link to a video… MAKE A COPY of the video. Note that BOTH videos in this thread have now been removed from YouTube… So if this is a GREAT third party video – please please please make a copy as you KNOW it going to be removed the instant some place like WWUT posts a link.”
Agreed.
An easy way to download videos from youtube is with the free “Flash Video Downloader” Add-In to Firefox, currently version 4.0.8. It adds a “download” button to the YouTube pages. I’m sure there are other tools that also work, but this one is simple and works well for me.
I don’t know what other sites it works with, but it works well with YouTube.
The earth is as regular as a milkman’s bowels, it will not get warm, but it may get a few degrees cooler. Its a bout of mass hysteria, a human condition which needs to feed the population with a scare to make them feel guilty.
When is THIS going to end?!?!?! http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=polar+bears+falling+from+the+sky&qpvt=polar+bears+falling+from+the+sky&FORM=VDRE#view=detail&mid=36BC2BEB2A4C2533C62836BC2BEB2A4C2533C628