UPDATE: I’ve corrected a few typos that carried over into two of the graphs and, at the end, I’ve added a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Indian and Pacific Ocean subset.
# # #
A week after typhoon Haiyan stormed through the Philippines, the website EcoWatch ran an article by Michael Mann. The blog post was titled Super Typhoon Haiyan: Realities of a Warmed World and Need for Immediate Climate Action. Michael Mann began with a commendable request for Philippine Red Cross Donations. But after that, once again, we have an activist celebrity—one who masquerades as a climate scientist—using the misfortunes of others in efforts to advance a political agenda. And to make the effort even more futile on Mann’s part, much of the evidence he presented has no basis in reality.
Mann writes:
For now, super storms are still rare. However, models suggest more frequent and intense storms in a warmed world. A number of scientists suspect that certain recent storms like Sandy and Haiyan exhibited characteristics outside the range of natural variation.
Unfortunately, deadly tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) have existed in the past and they will exist in the future. Steve Goddard has had numerous blog posts recently at RealScience about tropical cyclones, including a few with a link to the WeatherUnderground webpage that lists the 35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in History. Also, Paul Homewood of NotALotOf PeopleKnowThat plotted the number of tropical cyclones listed on the Wikipedia webpage here, with the same intensity as typhoon Haiyan (based on barometric pressure). See my Figure 1, which is from Paul’s post Most Intense Typhoons On The Decline.
Figure 1
The peer-reviewed paper linked by Mann was Emanuel (2013) Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. It’s obviously a climate model-based study. Sea surface temperatures are one of the primary ingredients of the tropical cyclone recipe, and we’ve illustrated and discussed in numerous posts that climate models show no skill at being able to simulate sea surface temperatures, so there’s no reason to believe their prognostications. Additionally, using a table prepared by Australia’s BOM (Bureau of Meteorology), NOAA indicates on their Weather Impacts of ENSO webpage that the number of tropical cyclones in the northwest tropical Pacific is influenced by El Niño and La Niña events. But climate models cannot simulate the basic processes of El Niño or La Niña events (see Guilyardi et al (2009) and Bellenger et al (2013)), so the study by Kerry Emanuel has little to no merit. For those new to this discussion, let me once again quote a key sentence from Guilyardi et al (2009). Note: ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) in the following is a commonly used acronym for El Niño and La Niña:
Because ENSO is the dominant mode of climate variability at interannual time scales, the lack of consistency in the model predictions of the response of ENSO to global warming currently limits our confidence in using these predictions to address adaptive societal concerns, such as regional impacts or extremes (Joseph and Nigam 2006; Power et al. 2006).
Michael Mann may believe that “A number of scientists suspect that certain recent storms like Sandy and Haiyan exhibited characteristics outside the range of natural variation”, but the IPCC (the political body that helped make him an eco-celebrity) contradicts the “number of scientists”. The IPCC states very clearly on page 7 of 165 of Chapter 2 of their 5th Assessment Report (their boldface):
Confidence remains low for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.
Additionally, the IPCC continues on page 62:
Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century and it remains uncertain whether any reported long-term increases in tropical cyclone frequency are robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities (Knutson et al., 2010).
Moving on, Michael Mann writes:
Although exact measurements are hard to come by (there were no flights in the Western Pacific to provide direct measurements) satellite images along with readings of ocean heat seem to suggest that Haiyan was an unnaturally powerful storm. The science is hinting that this storm may not have been so catastrophic in a world without warming.
Unnaturally? Oy vey. Mann’s link in that paragraph is to a blog post by Greg Laden Why Was Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda So Powerful, and is this a trend? In the following blog posts, we’ve addressed many of the points Greg Laden attempted to make:
- Typhoon Haiyan Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for Early Storm Track
- Games People Play(WattsUpWithThat Cross Post)
- Are Greg Laden’s Reading Comprehension Skills at an All-Time Low?
- Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential – It’s All in the Presentation(WattsUpWithThat Cross Post)
Greg Laden included a graph here reported to be from Kerry Emanuel’s 2005 paper Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. I found that graph quite curious. If we look at sea surface temperature trend map of the Indian and Pacific Oceans from 1994 to 2012, Figure 2, we can see little warming in the northwest equatorial Pacific. Two decades is a reasonable amount of time. The sea surface temperature dataset, HADISST, is the same date presented in that paper. Emanuel’s graph included the much-smoothed sea surface temperature anomalies for the region bordered by the coordinates of 5N-15N, 130E-180. I’ve highlighted that region on the map. An ENSO-related spatial pattern (what some would call a Pacific Decadal Oscillation-related pattern) is visible in the map.
Figure 2
As shown, there is no warming illustrated in the region used by Kerry Emanuel in his 2005 paper for the period of 1994 to 2012, the last 19 years. Why start the data in 1994? If we extend the trend map into years earlier than 1994, then the trends are being influenced by the residual cooling effects of the aerosols spewed into the stratosphere by the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo.
Figure 3 illustrates the sea surface temperature anomalies for that region in the northwest tropical Pacific for the period of January 1994 to August 2013. As shown, the warming rate is a minuscule 13 one-thousandths of a deg C per decade. Or better said, the sea surface temperatures show little to no warming in that region for the past 20 years.
Figure 3
Let’s extend the HADISST-based sea surface temperature data out to the entire region shown in Figure 2. That is, we’ll look at the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Indian and Pacific Oceans, from pole to pole, for the period of January 1994 to August 2013. The warming rate is even lower, at 6 one-thousandths of a deg C per decade.
Figure 4
It’s tough to claim, as Michael Mann did, that “The science is hinting that this storm may not have been so catastrophic in a world without warming,” when the data indicate the sea surface temperatures for the Indian or Pacific Oceans have not warmed in 2 decades. Maybe Michael Mann should check data before he makes claims that aren’t supported by data. That way he wouldn’t look so foolish when someone, like me, calls his bluff.
Note: Figure 4 uses the same coordinates and sea surface temperature dataset as the model-data comparison here, which was included in the post A Blog Memo to Kevin Trenberth – NCAR. According to the climate models used by the IPCC for their 4th Assessment Report, the sea surface temperatures of the Indian and Pacific Oceans should have warmed 0.31 deg C over that time period…if they were warmed by manmade greenhouse gases. I would have liked to update that model-data comparison for this post, using the models prepared for the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report. Unfortunately, there is a temporary glitch at the KNMI Climate Explorer, and the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 simulations of sea surface temperatures are presently not available. Rest assured, though, that there would not have been an improvement with the CMIP5 models. See the update at the end of the post.
Michael Mann continues on that tack with:
The unusually deep, unusually warm pool of water that provided the initial fuel is unlikely to have existed in a world without warming.
The not “unusually deep,” not “unusually warm pool of water” is a product of the trade winds that blow across the tropical Pacific. The warm water “piles up” against the land masses in the western tropical Pacific. As a result, warm water accumulates there to depths of about 300 meters. The region is known by a number of names, including the West Pacific Warm Pool and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. See Mehta and Mehta Natural decadal-multidecadal variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and its impacts on global climate. That warm water, created by sunlight, is occasionally released from below the surface of the western tropical Pacific by El Niño events. There is nothing unusual about the processes that drive El Niño and La Niña events.
Additionally, to counter Michael Mann’s claims of “unusually deep, unusually warm pool of water” we have the recent 2013 paleoclimatological paper Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years by Rosenthal et al. It indicates that ocean heat in the Pacific was warmer in centuries past than it is today.
That paper made the rounds through the blogosphere. Michael Mann even commented on it in his post at EcoWatch titled Pacific Ocean Warming at Fastest Rate in 10,000 Years so he understands that there are reconstructions that counter his claims. Refer also to Steve McIntyre’s post here. To put things in perspective, Steve spliced NODC data onto the end of one of the graphs by Rosenthal et al (2013). See my Figure 5.
Figure 5
Steve’s caption reads:
Figure 1. Annotation of Rosenthal Figure 3B. Original caption: “Compiled IWT anomalies based on Indonesian records spanning the ~500- to 900-m water depth (for individual records, see fig. S7). The shaded band represents +-1 SD. Red- OHC Pacific 0-700m heat content converted to temperature using the 0-700m Pacific mass shown in the Rosenthal SI. The values are consistent with 0-700m temperature anomaly values at NOAA http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index3.html.
In my annotation of their Figure 3B shown above, I’ve shown two trend lines, each of which more or less corresponds to the trends reported on lines 2 and 3 of Table S3: a trend of -0.15 deg C/century from 1100-1700 and a trend of 0.09 deg C/century from 1600-1950.
Steve also writes about that illustration:
On the far right, I’ve plotted Pacific ocean heat content, converted to deg C anomaly (red), together with its trend line. The two solid yellow lines show trend lines for 1100-1700 AD and 1600-1950 AD, two of the three periods considered in Rosenthal Table S4. It is true that the rate of change over the past 55 years is somewhat higher than the trend over 1600-1950, but it is not “15 times higher”. While I don’t think that one can safely reify the fluctuations in Rosenthal’s IWT reconstructions, on the other hand, these fluctuations appear to me to preclude any strong conclusions that the relatively modest increase is unprecedented.
But the best counter to the claims that the recent warming is the “fastest in 10,000 years” comes from one of the authors interviewed by Andy Revkin. See the NewYorkTimes blog here and the YouTube video here. Andy Revkin asks the authors if they could rule out whether there were rapid changes in the past. Co-author Brad Linsley replies in part at about the 4-minute mark.
You could say that we probably have century-scale resolution at best. It’s possible that the sediments just didn’t record similar warmings in the past.
Let’s put that in perspective. The NODC’s ocean heat content data for the depths of 0-700 meters and 0-2000 meters only extends back in time to 1955, or a little less than 60 years, but the resolution of the Rosenthal et al is “century scale”. Thus Brad Linsley’s statement, “It’s possible that the sediments just didn’t record similar warmings in the past.” There’s little chance they’d even notice a warming rate that was similar to the one presented by the NODC data for 60 years.
In his post Super Typhoon Haiyan: Realities of a Warmed World and Need for Immediate Climate Action, Mann gives a short spiel about global warming:
But herein lies the crux—we no longer live in a world without warming. Given that 1985 was the last year with temperatures below the 20th century average, and 2000-2010 was the hottest decade on record, it has become impossible to say for certain that any given storm is free from the influence of our warmed world.
We’ve illustrated and discussed in numerous blog posts for almost 5 years that ocean heat content data and satellite-era sea surface temperature records indicate the warming of the global oceans occurred via natural processes, not from increased emissions of manmade greenhouse gases. There’s no reason to repeat that discussion again here. If this subject is new to you, see the illustrated essay “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge” (42MB).
Mann goes on to talk about sea level rise:
While contrarians may dislike it when activists or actors like George Clooney point out the linkage between climate change and extreme weather, the bottom line is this: climate change makes tropical storms more damaging. Not only through increased wind speed and rainfall, but most notably through rising sea levels. This means greater damage and loss of property and life.
As I noted in my recent book Climate Models Fail:
Sea levels have climbed 100 to 120 meters (about 330 to 390 feet) since the end of the last ice age, and they were also 4 to 8 meters (13 to 26 feet) higher during the Eemian (the last interglacial period) than they are today. (Refer to the press release for the 2013 paper by Dahl-Jensen, et al. “Eemian Interglacial Reconstructed From a Greenland Folded Ice Core”.) Whether or not we curtail greenhouse gas emissions (assuming they significantly affect climate at all), if surface temperatures remain where they are (or even if they resume warming, or if surface temperatures were to cool a little in upcoming decades), sea levels will likely continue to rise. Refer to Roger Pielke, Jr.’s post “How Much Sea Level Rise Would be Avoided by Aggressive CO2 Reductions?” It’s very possible, before the end of the Holocene (the current interglacial), that sea levels could reach the heights seen during the Eemian. Some readers might believe it’s not a matter of if sea levels will reach that height; it’s a matter of when.
After quoting the delegate from the Philippines at this year’s United Nations Climate Talks in Poland, Michael Mann then calls for action:
Let that call echo, and be heard in response to those who would insist on waiting for the next storm to take action.
But, of course, Michael Man offers no course of action. If Michael Mann is suggesting that reductions in emissions of manmade greenhouse gases will stop cyclones like Haiyan from reoccurring and also end the rise in global sea levels, then–how can I put this nicely?–he’s delusional. If Michael Mann is suggesting the people of the Philippines create a typhoon warning system and an enforced plan that relocates residents from low-lying areas and that provides adequate shelter from the impacts of the storm, then, I believe, all would agree. Unfortunately, I believe Michael Mann has greenhouse gases in mind.
UPDATE: KNMI has fixed the bug in the Climate Explorer. (Thanks, Camiel.) Figure 6 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Indian and Pacific Ocean since 1994. The coordinates used are 90S-90N, 20E-80W. That region represents about 70% of the surface of the global oceans. The graph includes the multi-model ensemble mean of the CMIP5-archived models, which were used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report. They simulated a virtual warming rate for that colossal region of 0.186 deg C/decade, or a total warming of more than 0.35 deg C since 1994. But the satellite-enhanced, HADISST-based sea surface temperatures of the real Indian and Pacific Oceans have shown little to no warming for almost 2 decades.
Figure 6
Maybe the climate scientists who believe manmade greenhouse gas-induced warming contribute to typhoons are looking at model outputs and not observations-based data.
The BBC is also linking Typhoon Haiyan to AGW and, in every report, cites the tragedy as proof of the world having warmed.
Yet the facts are clear. This was a tragedy in its own right. But it is not proven to be caused by, or exacerbated by, AGW.
At this point the distortion of the truth can only be deliberate.
Last paragraph typo: s/b “warning” not “warming.”
“At this point the distortion of the truth can only be deliberate.”
Meh. Most of them believe it. It’s irrational and ignorant, but there you have it. In many ways we humans are still quite primitive. Realize it wasn’t all that long ago when we were still tossing young girls into the mouths of volcanos to appease the gods.
Some readers will also enjoy this. At the end of the blog post at EcoWatch…
http://ecowatch.com/2013/11/16/typhoon-haiyan-need-climate-action/
…there’s a brief description of Michael Mann’s work:
Michael E. Mann is Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Penn State University and author of “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars”, now out in paperback with a foreword by Bill Nye “The Science Guy.”
“a foreword by Bill Nye ‘The Science Guy’”? Doesn’t that just make you want to go out and buy a copy of Mann’s book?
Fantastic post, Bob!
Mann should have written this-
‘While contrarians may dislike it when activists like me or actors like George Clooney point out the linkage between climate change and extreme weather,…’
But maybe it is no longer necessary to indicate the obvious.
Remarkably, Mann continues to garner media attention, even after the ignominious ‘stripping’ of his Nobel laureation.
I’m still hoping that he sues the Stockholm gang over this egregious violation of Nobel prize regulations.
🙂
Political Junkie says: “Last paragraph typo: s/b ‘warning’ not ‘warming.'”
Thanks. Corrected.
There will be typhoons in 2014. Any money dedicated to curbing emissions instead of helping the Philippines get more resilient, will be close to murderous.
Even if one believes in CAGW, it’s like finding a person with pulmonary cancer and difficulty to breathe, only to book the person for chemiotherapy a few months laters, instead of providing oxygen right now.
One of the things we need to bear in mind is that, fortunately, very few typhoons ever hit land, or if they do are much weakened.
Out of the 35 most intense super typhoons, only four, including Yolanda, hit land at full strength or anywhere near.
13 stayed out at sea, and another 18 were much weakened by the time they made landfall.
Nine times out ten, Yolanda would have been just another storm.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/14/why-storms-like-yolanda-are-so-rare/
“M Courtney says:
November 18, 2013 at 5:05 am”
Yep! Same here in Australia, ABC, SBS, all other “news” outlets, and, of course, ALL TV newscasts. Daily! Any “weather event” anywhere becomes headline news. It really is comical!
“Super Typhoons” to “Super El Ninos” – do i detect a Warsaw Talks pattern developing?
18 Nov: WA Today: Peter Hannam, SMH: Fiercer El Nino weather ahead
Australia will face fiercer El Nino weather patterns – causing severe drought – as a result of human-induced global warming, world-first research by Sydney scientists has shown.
***While the El Nino cycles typically trigger drought in the eastern states, so-called SUPER El Ninos – such as those in 1982 and 1997 – have been detected since the mid-1970s…
In a study published in Nature, researchers led by authors from the University of NSW found the trigger for the unusual patterns was a weakening of westward-flowing currents along the Pacific equator.
Eastward spreading El Ninos matter because the pool of heat over the western Pacific is likely to shift to the east during such events, taking rainfall with it and exacerbating drought conditions over Australia, said lead author Agus Santoso, a senior research associate at UNSW’s Climate Change Research Centre…
The findings are likely to trigger further research to understand how much rainfall patterns are likely to change, Dr Santoso said…
“While more frequent eastward propagating El Ninos will be a symptom of a warming planet, further research is underway to determine the impact of such events in a climate that is going to be significantly warmer than today,” said co-author, Dr Wenju Cai, a senior scientist at CSIRO.
http://www.watoday.com.au/environment/weather/fiercer-el-nino-weather-ahead-20131118-2xrg5.html
“A number of scientists suspect that certain recent storms like Sandy and Haiyan exhibited characteristics outside the range of natural variation.”
We must always remember that 2 is a number. Mr. Mann and someone else may in face think that way.
It won’t end until large parts of North America are buried under a couple thousand feet of ice.
Meltdown Mann:-
“A number of scientists suspect ….”
“Models suggest….”
“The science is hinting….”
And there was me imagining that scientists had both to devise a testable hypothesis and also to consider every alternative scenario that could lead to the effect they were considering.
Suspecting, suggesting (by a model, no less) and hinting just doesn’t cut it. Mann is about as much of a scientist as Al Gore or Clooney.
What Mann and the BBC do by attributing this storm to global warming is wrong and the outcome is vile as it deflects from those that should be held accountable for the large number of deaths. Either the Phiilipine does not have proper construction standards or they exist and are not being enforced and the responsibilty lies with the Phillipine Government.
I located the following tome on construction standards recommended for houses constructed in the Phillipines and this document is dated 2008, bad and good practice is shown and the good practice is well known to structural engineers throughout the world.
http://www.unisdr.org/files/10329_GoodBuildingHandbookPhilippines.pdf
Extract follows:-
“Many of the existing houses in the Philippines are still not
safe enough to withstand the recurring force
s of nature
and GTZ is pleased to publish this Handbook as an aid to
assist local communities to design and build stronger
houses in safe locations. This will help them to withstand
extreme weather and geological events. It is written with
the aim of makin
g technical information simple and
understandable for those who build so many of the homes:
the homeowners themselves.”
The Code of Practice for wind speeds in the Phillipines provides a maximum speed of 250kph. Thus taking into account factors of safety the collapse of properly designed buildings should only occurr when wind speed reach 500kph for overturning and approx 390kph for material failure.
ps apologies for the typo’s
Michael Mann should perhaps be a little cautious of his funding, particularly if it derives from Federal sources. The US Government have been worried about the assignment of disasters to Climate Change at the Warsaw conference, so will not be too pleased with renegade “scientists” making adverse statements.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/13/climate-talks-typhoon-haiyan-philippines
The Guardian article says, – US officials fear that international climate change talks will become focused on payouts for damage caused by extreme weather events exacerbated by global warming, such as the category 5 Typhoon Haiyan that hit the Philippines last week killing thousands of people and causing what is expected to be billions of pounds of damage.
An official US briefing document obtained by the Guardian reveals that the country is worried the UN negotiations, currently under way in Warsaw, will “focus increasingly on blame and liability” and poor nations will be “seeking redress for climate damages from sea level rise, droughts, powerful storms and other adverse impacts”.
Perhaps not in the too distant future, government agencies might just be saying that Climate Change was 100% natural after all.
Super Mann.
THE HOCKEY STICK
There was a crooked Mann
Who played a crooked trick
And had a crooked plan
To make a crooked stick
By using crooked math
That favored crooked lines
Lysenko’s crooked path
Led thru the crooked pines
And all his crooked friends
Applaud what crooked seems
But all that crooked ends
Derives from crooked means
Eugene WR Gallun
“Reality is Absent from Michael Mann’s Activist Article on Typhoon Haiyan”
Title too long.
“Reality is Absent from Michael Mann”
Much better.
🙂
More rent seeking tripe from Mann.
Notice the similarity to a good con-artist: No actual linkage, but instead product placement and implications of doom unless he and his pals get a lot more of our money.
Stacey, thanks very much for the UNISDR handbook link:
http://www.unisdr.org/files/10329_GoodBuildingHandbookPhilippines.pdf
I didn’t know that existed.
Excellent post, Dr. Tisdale.
I was going to make a cynical comment about Mann’s believe in his ability to control the climate and prevent large tropical cyclones. However, when Bill Nye, the science guy, backs him, it truly must be so.
I wonder if Mann and folks like him have this rubbish prewritten so all they have to do is a few edits and be out quickly telling us we must atone for our sins.
I thought Michael Mann was a tree-ring guy. When did he become a credentialed expert in oceanography, tropical storms, and the recent weather history of Asia? (Or is it only the “deniers” who speak outside their area of expertise we should ignore?)
Bob Greene says: “Excellent post, Dr. Tisdale.”
Thanks for the kind words, but there’s no “Dr.” before my last name.
Mann said “The science is hinting that this storm may not have been so catastrophic in a world without warming,” To hint or suggest without scientific proof or naming of names is baseless science that has no credibilty .
more typhoons in the future if we don’t take climate action? ok
give us how likely and error bars…
and give us how likely and errors bars if we do take climate action….
“A number of scientists suspect that certain recent storms like Sandy and Haiyan exhibited characteristics outside the range of natural variation.
Zero is a number.
Colin Porter says:
November 18, 2013 at 5:56 am
An official US briefing document obtained by the Guardian reveals that the country is worried the UN negotiations, currently under way in Warsaw, will “focus increasingly on blame and liability”
===========
The US and EU blocked moves to take into consideration CO2 already released. Instead they are trying to get delegates to focus on CO2 yet to be released by other countries.
This demonstrates the hypocrisy of the the developed nations. Having released the CO2 that “caused” the problem, and in doing so they got themselves out of poverty, they now want to prevent the rest of the world from doing the same. They are hoping the promise of 100 billion per year to pay off third world leaders to keep their people in poverty will be sufficient, so they can continue to live high off the hog, enjoying the benefits of CO2 while depriving the rest of the world of the same benefits.
But Mann’s comments tie into the education reforms being pushed all over the world now that prime students to believe climate and economies and cities and society itself are all “systems” that can be modelled and redesigned and experimented with until the outcomes meet the preferences of a majority of voters.
When your schoolday is full of computer graphics supposedly simulating reality with grabbing visuals you are immersed in and playing massively multiplayer online gaming constitutes accepted middle or high school activity because it is engaging, we are setting up the next generation that will believe physical reality behaves like the virtual reality that seems to fill every waking hour. Home and school.
It’s a new kind of storm chaser out there today.
Mann oh Mann.
Piltdown Mann is a ‘distinguised’ Quackademic whose hockey stick fraud was demolished and who denied the existence of the medieval warm and little ice age periods ? He is not a scientist but a another huckster-philosopher who has made a lot of money from his scam and now enjoys an exalted position – one quite different from 1998 when he just obtained his Pretty Happy Dude degree and was a mere adjunct prof at little U Mass Amherst….. He should be defunded – but alas U Penn makes too much Fed $ out of Piltdown Mann to contemplate enforcing real scientific procedures, transparency, experimentation, proof…….fraud is not science.
According to GHG theory, the greatest warming should occur at the poles. This decreases the efficiency of the heat engine that drives the earth’s weather, which should reduce the frequency and intensity of storms.
This is fundamental to all Carnot cycle engines, which includes the earth. If you reduce the efficiency of the engine, while maintained the same fuel supply (the sun) the engine will deliver less work (weather).
This reduction is clearly seen in Figure 1, where the time of greatest warmth is marked by the least number of intense storms. At the same time, there has been a reduction in wind speeds globally. If anything, storm intensity should increase in the future if we see a decrease in polar temperatures.
The repeated and dishonest attempts to exploit human disasters to further his agenda speak volumes about Mann’s integrity. What a nasty bit of work.
“The science is hinting that this storm may not have been so catastrophic in a world without warming,”
========
Duh, without the warming world and the prosperity of fossil fuels, PI would not have been able to support its current population. Millions would have died early due to poverty, leaving less for the Typhoon to target today.
Dear Bob
No problem and thank you.
Apologies for having to use a screen name.
Stacey says:
November 18, 2013 at 5:54 am
I located the following tome on construction standards recommended for houses constructed in the Phillipines and this document is dated 2008, bad and good practice is shown and the good practice is well known to structural engineers throughout the world.
==========
Had a quick read through the book. Excellent and easy to follow. These sorts of low cost, practical solutions make a whole lot more sense than trying to stop storms by eliminating fossil fuels. There were typhoons long before fossil fuels were in use.
“Mann writes:
For now, super storms are still rare. However, models suggest more frequent and intense storms in a warmed world. ”
He has models that show that more warmth means more tropical storms? Gee, who is that guy, a genius? Bet he has a Nobel price like Obama.
Mann also said
“A number of scientists suspect that certain recent storms like Sandy and Haiyan exhibited characteristics outside the range of natural variation.” Who said that natural variation has a fixed amplitude and frequency of weather events . This is nonsense. Sometime the various factors come together that cause weather that is more extreme than the previous one . A good example of this is tornadoes in US. As soon as we have more tornadoes or bigger tornadoes , some misinformed climate scientists blame it on global warming . Yet no one checked the variables that cause the extra or bigger tornadoes like the1974 spring peak , this past spring and again yesterday . Whenever there is a colder spring or colder fall in the Canadian Prairie region, extra cold air rushes south to meet the warm air in the US mid west coming from the Gulf . The result is inevidable and it is not due to global warming at all. I maintain that periodic changes in natural variation that cause more extreme weather not global warming.
ferd berple says:
November 18, 2013 at 6:41 am
“This demonstrates the hypocrisy of the the developed nations. Having released the CO2 that “caused” the problem, and in doing so they got themselves out of poverty, they now want to prevent the rest of the world from doing the same. ”
Nah, it’s far simpler; CO2AGW was designed as an allround political club; lots of governments have used the club to justify this or that; now the emerging economies think, yeah, we’ll use it as well to club the broke Western nations a bit; and the Westerners can ill afford it so they try to deflect the clubbing.
Just Realpolitik. The word “hypocritical” doesn’t really apply as it is never honest or candid to begin with.
When you’re a politician and you want to achieve X to solve problem Y, policy X is usually not sold best by explaining problem Y. Something else, a pseudo problem Z, might have a much better appeal to the masses. So you tell the masses, we’ll do X because of Z.
Just like you sell iPhones and Teslas by making them black and shiny.
There have been many complaints about the BBC’s coverage of this event. As the BBC makes it difficult to make a formal complaint against them, I have gathered all the relevant information here should you wish to pursue the matter with them directly.
*****
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Tel: +44 370 010 0222
Tel: 020 7743 8000
Tel: 08700 100 222 if you want to complain about a programme
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If you want to email them direct, then it is usually firstname.lastname@bbc.co.uk
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This petition should be sent to every member of the BBC Trust, the BBC Executive Board and the Non-executives :
“Dear [BBC],
We, the taxpaying public, have had enough of the lying propaganda you publish and broadcast on a daily basis about “global warming,” or “climate change,” or whatever you are calling it this month.
One of the most persistent lies you disseminate is that of the so-called “98% consensus” of climate scientists who agree with the assertion that changes in the Earth’s climate are largely driven by man-made carbon dioxide, or “carbon emissions” as you prefer to call it.
This lie is repeated by every broadcaster you employ, including your so-called “Environment Analyst” Roger Harrabin, and no effort is spared in spreading the misinformation via selected guests on your various programs, such as Radio 4’s Saturday Review on Saturday September 14th.
In view of the information attached, which proves conclusively the lie about the “98% consensus” we demand you either stop deliberately disseminating this deception to your audiences and readers or provide a comprehensive explanation to the public as to why you refuse to do so.”
Such drivel coming from Mr. Mann and his followers is to be expected. I’m just wondering how long “mainstream” climate scientists will put up with this nonsense before even they get totally turned off. I suppose it’s like asking how long the left wing MSM and Hollywood elites will put up with Alec Baldwin before they finally “throw him under the bus”…
If any of these propaganda-slingers thinks (as they seem to) that CO2 is the “control knob” for hurricanes, typhoons, and tornados, PROVE IT.
I’m from the government and I’m here to help.
The check’s in the mail.
Models suggest.
From an item by Benny Peiser:
Is there an official death toll yet?
I have seen it suggested that 8 million people were in the path of that Typhoon, so it would be useful to compare it with the one I experienced.
Yeah, yeah, but this is so last week. Most of the propagandists have already moved on the Illinois tornadoes as their next “proof”.
Strong words for Mann. beware of lawsuits as he has a thin skin.
But even though the words are strong, they are accurate.
The wind speed of Typhoon Haiyan, when it hit land, was high but nothing special according to the Philippines Meteorological Office – but nobody listens to them because they use real observations and those are not scary nor sensational enough.
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=11&cad=rja&ved=0CGYQFjAK&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwattsupwiththat.com%2F2013%2F11%2F09%2Fsuper-typhoon-haiyanyolanda-another-overhyped-storm-that-didnt-match-early-reports%2F&ei=kDiKUoecIqjb0QXd4YD4CA&usg=AFQjCNF69FVfOswk2kh_NrHPBEbzXnRlaA
The supposedly ultra high wind figures was an offshore reading interpreted from a satellite. Hurricanes and typhoons always have higher winds when they are offshore.
Unfortunately, the incredible amount of alarmist nonsense written about the non-hurricane Sandy (when it made landfall) is being repeated with Typhoon Haiyan. And all the usual suspects are there peddling their BS.
There was a good reason the Japanese refer to typhoons as “Supreme Wind” or “Divine Wind” – being saved from a Mongol Invasion by a super typhoon probably helped this viewpoint.
It doesn’t take a climate science title or science degree tofigure out what Mann is doing.
The average Joe with curiosity and a BS detector can easily understand and the debate and know what is going on.
Here’s my latest layman’s psychoanalysis.
A mutual (to many) friend Gordon asked in a message board discussion with an academic:
“Where is the correlation with CO2?”
Why Gordon the answer could not be more clear.
The correlation is wherever and whatever it needs to be in order to perpetuate the notion.
It can be imagined, fabricated, supposed, presumed or even hiding but magically known to be.
The notion of AGW must not die.
For if it were to die the worst kind of mass extinction would quickly follow.
The extinction of the corrupt climate calamity peddlers and charlatan pushers of government policy elixirs.
These purposefully mendacious meddlers view the bulk of humanity and society as inferior and in perpetual ailment that demands their limitless intervention and control.
So absolute and overwhelming is their instinct to dominate, that they cannot foresee any scenario of net detriment regardless of how horrifically wrong they are on anything.
Being wrong just does not matter at all, period.
When THAT resides in one’s core, evidence is always subordinate to desire.
Ferdinand (@StFerdinandIII) says:
November 18, 2013 at 6:47 am
Piltdown Mann is a ‘distinguised’ Quackademic…
Love that word, “quackademic”. Perfect description of him. Reminds me of a recently-coined here hilarity (don’t remember by whom); “he ducks like a quack”.
e·col·o·gy (-kl-j)
n. pl. e·col·o·gies
1. The study by Mann and other Green scum of the pond life beneath the surface of climate change alarmism…
Isn’t “Immediate Climate Action” an oxymoron?
Anyone wanting to say “David Cameron says” should definitely read this UN report to see the conomic, social, and political transformation he and other politicians are using CAGW as an excuse for. http://www.post2015hlp.org/the-report/ He was a member of the report’s panel.
That was me, FWIW.
The models have correctly predicted that there will be more frequent superstorms over the next few years. The models have been robustly confirmed by the size of the grants supporting them.
Excellent post Bob Tisdale.
Not to belabour a point but Michael Mann is a gift that just keeps on giving.
I used to think I had an active imagination, but I could not have invented this guy.
I am beginning to suspect that “The Mann” is Pointmans,” Agent Deep Woolabra Wonga”,
Seriously, if we who question the divine wisdom of CAGW, had needed a character to point to, who embodies all that is odious about this anti-humanist belief, could we have created a better example?
Ferdinand (@StFerdinandIII) says:
November 18, 2013 at 6:47 am
sorry…
its penn state, not u.penn. u penn doesnt have a horse in this race. its penn state.
I pretty much tune out any ‘reputable’ scientist when they couch their statements with qualifiers – suspect, could, maybe, might, hint, etc.
An example:
“The science is hinting that this storm may not have been so catastrophic in a world without warming.” ‘Dr’ Mann, Science doesn’t ‘hint’, it either affirms or denies.
Canman says:
November 18, 2013 at 9:17 am
“Isn’t “Immediate Climate Action” an oxymoron?”
We could start with Immediate Weather Action and continue for 30 years.
Grant A. Brown says:
November 18, 2013 at 6:18 am
“I thought Michael Mann was a tree-ring guy. When did he become a credentialed expert in oceanography, tropical storms, and the recent weather history of Asia? (Or is it only the “deniers” who speak outside their area of expertise we should ignore?)”
In fact, he is an oceanographer by education AFAIK; not a dendro guy. His tree ring reconstruction, the original hockey stick, was something that the real dendros would never have dared to put out.
The two greatest hurricanes to strike Southeastern Virginia occurred in 1667 and 1749 during the middle of the little ice age.
Particularly obnoxious is the use of the tragic suffering in the Phillipines to push ones favorite fraud of human-caused “climate change”. Provide the help they need rather than profit from their suffering.
David-U-Penn though is heavily involved with the associated Regional Equity/Metropolitanism push that is intimately linked to Agenda 21. Also the idea of distributive justice as a normative political theory.
Plus it is where Martin Seligman is a prof and he is involved with both the Positive Psychology push tied to the educational components of Agenda 21 as well as the World Happiness Report the UN issued in 2012.
Mann is not at UPenn but UPenn is actually deeply involved in the Agenda 21/Sustainability vision once it is properly understood as about economic, political, and social transformation. The UN redefined Sustainability at it 2005 Summit. Our invitations got lost I suppose.
Is suspecting something science? I need to see the published, peer reviewed evidence showing that “certain recent storms like Sandy and Haiyan exhibited characteristics outside the range of natural variation.”
Another excellent posting.
A minor spelling error: “miniscule” should be “minuscule”. I might not have mentioned it but the word appears in a couple of graph titles.
IanM
DirkH says: November 18, 2013 at 7:26 am
“Mann writes: For now, super storms are still rare. However, models suggest more frequent and intense storms in a warmed world. ”
He has models that show that more warmth means more tropical storms? Gee, who is that guy, a genius? Bet he has a Nobel price like Obama.
@DirkH That’s exactly the problem: he acts as a trustworthy scientist because people associate him with a Nobel Price (a self-created image of him btw), but first of all he didn’t win it and second it was a Peace Price, so no science involved there. The man is a con-artist of the worst kind. But I think he is starting to look over his schoulder, because deep down he must know the jig is up. Hence the recent screaming.
Dr. Mann, One Hit Wonder ……http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc
The Mann is no scientist and has never been one.
Mann: “…and Need for Immediate Climate Action.”
Has anyone here ever even really paid close attention to how often THIS is the thing they are always pushing?
“If we don’t do it NOW…”
This is their message. Since the late 1980s. WHY ‘immediate”? Why not something less? Like “need to definitely vet this thoroughly”?
Because since the beginning they knew – like a side show barker or a used car salesman – that once we walk away there is little chance we will fork over the moolah.
And once one of US walks away, what do they say to the next sucker that comes down the Midway? “…and Need for Immediate Climate Action.”
“If you don’t buy it now, IT WILL BE TOO LATE!”
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY. “Get the sucker’s money – and never give up! There is another sucker walking down the Midway – RIGHT NOW! – and HE might fall for it! You can’t let defeat get you down! The next one might be THE one!” (And – without Climategate – they would have had it! They were THIS close!)
The more time that goes by, the more we will learn, and then the chances are about 50-50 that their claims will be shown to be false. They know that if we all wait we might find that their claims are bull. They are selling a bridge in Brooklyn, and if the mark (us) walks away, they will lose the sale.
So, the deal has to be closed. The 1950s door-to-door salesmen knew that they had to close it the first time (because wifey might talk to hubby, who has ten times more sales resistance than the little woman…) So every sentnce is designed to get the money NOW.
So, in this scheme of things, skeptics are like the 1950s husband coming home and sadly shaking his head, thinking his wife is really gullible, as he looks at what she has bought (into)…
DirkH says:
November 18, 2013 at 10:43 am
…In fact, [Mann] is an oceanographer by education AFAIK; not a dendro guy. His tree ring reconstruction, the original hockey stick, was something that the real dendros would never have dared to put out.
______________
HAHAHAHA! That’s funnier yet. You mean the work that made Mann famous wasn’t even in his area of expertise? You mean all this time the alarmists have been relying on the opinion of a non-specialist for one of the main planks in their CAGW conjecture? -all the while dismissing a few skeptics for not being specialists in climate science? Now that’s funny.
“…models suggest more frequent and intense storms in a warmed world.”
Climastrologists have been repeating this BS ad-nauseam for the past 25 years. Meanwhile, in the real world, the number of cylcones, tornadoes, droughts, floods, and wildfires continue to decrease as CO2 levels continue to increase. I personally don’t believe there is much correlation between CO2 and climate, but the empirical data seem to indicate that increasing levels of CO2 make the climate milder.
phillipbratby nails it:
“The Mann is no scientist and has never been one” – Exactly!
There seems to be another divergence on Mann’s analysis. If the global temperature for the last 17 years have been constant or even slightly negative ( fig 2 after 1997 which was very high) does this mean global cooling results to destructive cyclones? Or does computer simulation of global warming as predicted by the IPCC ( forget about actual data) results to more destructive cyclones?
Just a note that the Philippines recently achieved the distinction of being ranked the worst country in SE Asia in terms of the disparity in wealth between the elite and the rest of the population. It’s also ranked amongst the worst in SE Asia and the world in terms of various corruption indices. It’s in the interest of the Philippines government and local wealthy elite to exploit climate change internationally; they certainly know how to exploit and politicise opportunities locally for personal gain.
In the interest of saving the planet the author could have just written
‘Reality is Absent from Michael Mann ‘
and still be fully correct , whilst saving all the energy spent writing the rest of this article, will someone think of the children.
The main reason for the tremendous damage in Tacloben area of the Philippines was storm surge. Tacloben is in a funnel shaped bay which focused the storms energy and surge at the critical point. In addition the area just to the east of the Philippines is very conducive to opposing winds which set up a natural spin in the atmosphere (Weather channel coverage).
This same area resulted in a typhoon which struck Admiral Halsey’s 3rd Fleet TF 58 on December 18, 1944, causing major damage to many vessels, sinking three US destroyers and killing 792 American sailors. Task Force 58 contained the bulk of our aircraft carriers and support vessels which were to be used in the invasion of the Philippines.
Ian L. McQueen: Thanks for finding the typos. I especially hate it when I make them in the graphs. I’ve included the corrections in the update.
Thanks, again.
Let’s put that in perspective. The NODC’s ocean heat content data for the depths of 0-700 meters and 0-2000 meters only extends back in time to 1955, or a little less than 60 years,
No, not 1955! NODC’s chart might go back to 1955,
but it’s ocean temperature data is worthless prior to 1990.
NODC’s chart prior to 1990 is a woefully under-sampled, biased location fiction.
A summary of: From Swallow floats to Argo – the development of neutrally buoyant floats. — Gould 2005(?)
1955: 2 float Iberian abyssal plain for 2 days.
1957: 9 floats for 5 days.
1960: Aries (Bermuda) floats 14 months. Discovery of mesoscale eddies
1968: 2 SOFAR floats, < 1 week.
1969: 1 SOFAR for 4 months
1973: SOFAR/MODE, 9 month, 20 floats. (N. Atlantic) (2 lasted 2 years)
1974: MiniMODE, 52 floats, range 70 km from recording ship. Collected in 2 months more instrument days that previous 17 years.
Late 1970s coverage extended beyond N. Atlantic to Western and Eastern Atlantic. Still restricted to U.S. MIL and Navy sub tracking hydrophones.
Mid 1980’s: 14 floats at 3700 m, Bay of Biscay, and 13 floats over 4 years at Iberia Abyssal Plain. For Nuclear Waste Disposal research.
Everything prior to this is restricted to the Northern Hemisphere Atlantic, and most of it the North Atlantic Anti-Sub detection network.
1988: First ALACE float, 5 year lifetime, 1000m depth, satellite tracking.
WOCE program: For ocean circulation, one float per 500 km square (250,000 km^2 !) to reduce sampling error of currents to 3 mm/sec. 1000 floats required. 1110 float deployed over 12 years. (so 250 km.
Mean distance between floats reporting on the same day is >1000 km.
Think Nyquist.
“For now, super storms are still rare. However, models suggest more frequent and intense storms in a warmed world”
If the models have never looked at a cooling world as they have happened regularly in the past, how could they make the claim that a warming world will have more storms .A cooling world could have more storms as there will be more frequent meeting of cold fronts and warm fronts and the cold fronts will be colder.
Here in Europe politicians and newscasters parrot the “AGW caused Haiyan” meme over and over again. It makes me so frustrated that there is no critical questions asked, like how come the IPCC rate the confidense in this as low. My only comfort is that in media that allow comments the general mood is doubt and disbelief, i hope that is an indication people in general see this propaganda for what it is.
Continuation of my 1:26 pm
(some greater than and less than signs corrupted the later years of history.)
1988: First ALACE float, 5 year lifetime, 1000m depth, satellite tracking.
WOCE program: For ocean circulation, one float per 500 km square (250,000 km^2 !) to reduce sampling error of currents to 3 mm/sec. 1000 floats required. 1110 float deployed over 12 years. (so < 500 active at any time) WOCE might have been supplemented by 1000 other older type floats.
2000 ARGO: 2000m. First float in 2000, 1400 floats mid 2004,
“While the original neutrally buoyant floats were designed (primarily) to explore ocean
circulation, Argo floats serve a dual purpose. Their primary contribution is the CTD (Conductance, Temperature, Density)
profile data…. "
Late 2004: 1500 ARGO floats
2007: complete array of 3000+
Each float does a temperature profile every 10 days.
Mean distance between floats is greater than 250 km.
Mean distance between floats reporting on the same day is greater than 1000 km.
Think Nyquist.
Here is a photobucket chart of Willis’s chart from “Meaning of Levitus” with the above float program history overlayed. JPG 300kb
If my memory, which for some reason prefers to be a practical joker rather than co-traveler, proves to be accurate then I seem recall a line that says someone’s eyes provide a glimpse into their soul. If that’s indeed true then Michael Mann’s beady, shifty, little eyes would seem to provide the balance of evidence suggesting a discernible influence on the truth of that statement.
But, even if we didn’t have that proxy, we could have validation of the suggestion those eyes give us by Mann’s words alone: ‘While contrarians may dislike it when activists or actors like George Clooney point out the linkage between climate change and extreme weather, the bottom line…’
Apparently fame and fortune are the prerequisites for understanding climate change. Perhaps palatial mansions right at the water’s edge on Lake Como, Italy, provide the necessary atmosphere in which to concoct these great scientific melodramas. (Especially since laboratories and computers – besides being useless for the endeavor – are so mundane and unstylish.) Perhaps Michael Mann wishes to get to be in Clooney’s inner circle; to get to know him; to be able to name drop (Hey there George, it’s Mikey); to have the same fame; acquire the same fortune; maybe, just maybe, acquire a palatial mansion … on Lake Como? And all from being a world savior climate scientist (since Hollywood’s clearly not an option) groveling for his attention.
Sorry Mike, George Clooney’s knowledge of the human condition is just as mediocre as yours.
==================================================================
If I’m not mistaken, the GAGW meme demands the planet continues to heat as CO2 rises. Originally, as temperatures rose the heat would cause the oceans to boil etc. (If I’ve got that wrong, ask Hansen.)
Well, the temperatures haven’t risen as CO2 increased. So, if the lack of increasing temperatures doesn’t reflect the increased heat that must be there, then the increased heat must be hiding somewhere where thermometers don’t exist. If there is not a thermometer in a place where the Sun don’t shine then that is where the heat is hiding and its occasional outburst result in whatever weather event didn’t happen last week.
Well dug, Mikey. Keep on a-diggin’. Ah kin dig it!
DirkH says
Bet he has a Nobel price like Obama.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Absolutely exquisite, if it was not a typo. Funny even if so.
If I had the chance to ask Michael Mann one question it would be this: “What, there weren’t any openings for an alchemist?”
*Models* ‘hint’ or ‘suggest’? In his next life I am sure he will come back as a phrenologist. Karma can be a ….
*Models* ‘hint’ or ‘suggest’?
———————————————
Yeah, they have also been known to flutter their (false) eyelashes, flirt, and wiggle their behinds.
That doesn’t make them my no. 1 source for scientific or policy advice, though.
The temperature of the atmosphere is NOT the primary driver of hurricanes and tornados. It is the differential in temperature between air masses that counts.
If temperature were the driver of storms, then Venus would be raging with them – but it is not.
ralph
The most eye-catching feature of figure 2 would seem to be the ‘hotspot’ in the North Pacific, which would seem to be co-located with the recently identified Tamu Massif, touted as the largest shield volcano on earth (about 50 times the size of the Hawaii shield known as Mauna Loa), and one of the largest volcanoes in the solar system.
One can only wonder how much heat is being injected into the ocean by this volcano.
To Stacey:
You posted a link to a UN document about building practices
in the Philippines. You also stated that this document is
advocating sound structural engineering practices. Fine.
However, as is usual for documents produced by the UN,
there is absolutely not one mention of the word “cost”
in this document. The UN bureaucracy, and that of other
international organizations such as the OECD, is really great
at making recommendations, as long as someone else is paying
for them.
The Philippines is a desperately poor country. Their GDP
per capita is roughly $3752 (2010 figures). In addition, the
Philippines has just achieved the dubious distinction of having
the greatest disparity between those in poverty–33% of the country–
and the country’s wealthiest citizens in all of Asia.
I glanced at the UN-produced guide. It seemed to be mainly
pictorial, illustrating good vs. bad structural practice. I have
no doubt this guide makes good recommendations. However,
as I mentioned above, the key point is, “Using WHAT for money?”
A Filipino who is lucky to have scavenged scrap lumber and
assorted materials to build a shelter, and must work constantly
to feed himself and his family, is not going to be able to pay
the price needed to conform to the recommendations in that
guide.
I’m sure Mr. Willis Eschenbach, a frequent commenter on this
Web site who has the advantage of having lived in the Philippines
and several other countries where the average inhabitant is
dirt-poor, would be able to add even more trenchant comments
on the subject of a UN-produced document for risk reduction
that says absolutely zero about cost.