This is one of those publications where I look at what was done in the paper and just shake my head in disbelief. For starters, according to the data listed in the SI, the supposed extra deaths due to climate change manifesting itself as increased summer temperatures came from model output; they didn’t actually have health services data/coroner data that showed causes of death. They simply assume the model output is valid. And there are other problems, such as their choice of temperature base period of 1900-1929 to compare against the study period of 1980-2009. See more at the end of the post, I need some reader assistance – Anthony
Press Release from Umeå University
Climate change increased the number of deaths
[2013-10-21] The increased temperatures caused by ongoing climate change in Stockholm, Sweden between 1980 and 2009 caused 300 more premature deaths than if the temperature increase did not take place. In Sweden as a whole, it would mean about 1,500 more premature deaths, according to a study from researchers at Umeå University published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Global warming does not only give a general increase in temperature, but it also increases the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. Previous studies have shown that these changes are associated with increased mortality, especially during extremely hot periods. It also speculated that mortality associated with extreme cold could decrease as a result of a warmer climate.
Researchers at the Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, conducted a study in which they examined the extent to which mortality associated with extreme temperatures occurred in Stockholm during the period 1980-2009. In order to assess what can be regarded as extreme temperatures, they compared temperature data from this period with the corresponding data for the period 1900 to 1929.
The study shows that the number of periods of extremely high temperatures increased significantly over the period 1980-2009, all of which contributed to about 300 more deaths during these heat waves than had been the case without climate change.
“Mortality associated with extreme heat during the relevant period was doubled, compared to if we had not had some climate change,” says Daniel Oudin Åström, PhD-student in Occupational and Environmental Medicine, who conducted the study. “Furthermore, we saw that even though the winters have become milder, extremely cold periods occurred more often, which also contributed to a small increase in mortality during the winter.”
Although the increase in the number of deaths due to extreme temperature overall is quite small over a 30 year period, Daniel Oudin Åström emphasises that the current study only includes the Stockholm area. If the method had been used in the whole of Sweden, or Europe, the increase in the number of deaths would have been much larger. For Sweden as a whole, it is estimated that about 1,500 extra deaths due to climate change had occurred over the past 30 years.
In addition, the researchers only examined mortality in really extreme temperatures. Therefore, the number of premature deaths caused by less extreme temperatures is not included in the study.
Daniel Oudin Åström says that despite the long-standing debate about climate change, Swedes have not changed their attitude and willingness to protect themselves against extreme temperatures.
“The study findings do not suggest any adaptation of the Swedes when it comes to confronting the increasingly warmer climate, such as increased use of air conditioning in elderly housing,” says Daniel Oudin Åström. “It is probably because there is relatively little knowledge in regards to increased temperatures and heat waves on health.”
###
Here is the paper:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2022.html
Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm, Sweden
Daniel Oudin Åström, Bertil Forsberg, Kristie L. Ebi & Joacim Rocklöv
Nature Climate Change (2013) doi:10.1038/nclimate2022
Abstract:
A changing climate is increasing the frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent of heat waves. These changes are associated with increased human mortality during heat extremes. At the other end of the temperature scale, it has been widely speculated that cold-related mortality could decrease in a warmer world. We aim to answer a key question; the extent to which mortality due to temperature extremes in Stockholm, Sweden during 1980–2009 can be attributed to climate change that has occurred since our reference period (1900–1929). Mortality from heat extremes in 1980–2009 was double what would have occurred without climate change. Although temperature shifted towards warmer temperatures in the winter season, cold extremes occurred more frequently, contributing to a small increase of mortality during the winter months. No evidence was found for adaptation over 1980–2009
===============================================================
More than a couple of things stand out that I’m looking into.
1. A paper they cite by Pat Michaels and Chipp Knappenberger found only one US city that had any mortality increase due to heat, and that was Seattle. Michaels opines that this was likely due to the city being such a cool climate that very little cooling infrastructure was in place in the city. This might also be true of the high latitude city of Stockholm.
2. A cursory check of climate data for Stockholm from NASA GISS shows that something curious happened around 1930. Notice the big step change then:
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=645024640000&dt=1&ds=12
Note also how much more variance there is after 1930. To me this looks like a classic station move signal, though it could be related to something as simple as a building going up/torn down nearby that affected wind patterns near the station. The fact that they use 1900-1929 as the base period for the model comparison is troubling, since it seems to be the coolest, least variable part of the station record.
Also, for some reason, GISS can’t seem to get data updated for Stockholm past 1994, even though the station continues to produce data. I’ve asked Dr. Gavin Schmidt about this, but he has ignored my request. Perhaps he’s too busy on Twitter to bother.
Waymarking notes of the station:
“When the observatory was renovated and extended in 1875 the thermometer was moved to a metal cage outside a window on the first floor. The current observation site, from 1960, is only about 10 metres away. These few small relocations make Stockholm’s long observation series one of the world’s absolute best. The high quality of the series has recently been documented in several scientific studies.”*
*From Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SMHI website.
With it being supposedly “…one of the world’s absolute best.” you’d think NASA GISS would want to get current data for it. It’s a travesty they have not updated it since 1994:
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/find_station.cgi?dt=1&ds=12&name=stockholm
3. The authors cite the shift in temperature distribution during summer as being proof of more heat which would translate into greater mortality(see figure 2 below).
Figure 2: Temperature distribution of 2-day moving average of mean temperatures during summer months.
Grey distribution, 1900–1929; black distribution, 1980–2009.
Problem is, this data they are plugging into their mortality model appears to come from a single weather station, what I believe is the Stockholm Observatory, though they don’t actually name the station dataset in the paper that I’ve found. The Stockholm Observatory has all sorts of microsite issues that they have not accounted for, such as a brick building nearby and wind shading from rows of vegetation.
Image from Waymarking.com, taken July 30th, 2010 – more here
Here is the aerial view from Google Earth using the lat/lon provided by Waymarking.com You can see how wind sheltered the station is, especially during summer with all those broadleaf trees around it. One wonders what the site looked like in 1929 and if the weather station was in the same location.
The microsite issues coupled with whatever happened in 1930 (which looks like a station move to me) could easily explain a good portion of summer month temperature increases from 1980-2009 compared to 1900-1929
4. There’s other cherry picking going on; they cite Stockholm as being representative of the changes in Sweden, yet study no other cities or stations to test that theory. They are using mean temperatures, rather than looking at Tmax. Mean temperatures are sensitive to effects of microsite bias which mostly show up in Tmin. If heat waves are really increasing in Stockholm, affecting mortality, it should show up in Tmax, yet they didn’t test for this that I can find.
I think this paper is seriously flawed because the authors assume the temperature data is “near perfect” and chose an inappropriate base period which exacerbates the comparison differential. Whether this is incompetence or cherry picking remains to be seen.
I’m working on locating metadata for a detailed history of the station in Stockholm to test out what I have observed, but I need help.
Anyone reading who is familiar with the station and the meteorological service there, I ask that you weigh in with a comment below. I need the help since I’m not well versed in Swedish. Any help will be appreciated.
Related articles
- Stockholm heat toll ‘doubled in 30 years’ (climatenewsnetwork.net)
“In addition, the researchers only examined mortality in really extreme temperatures. Therefore, the number of premature deaths caused by less extreme temperatures is not included in the study.”
*
In other words, they’re gearing up for another, “It’s worse than we thought!”
I’m sure help with this will be along very quickly. This is getting ridiculous. Models coming up with a number is not data. Seriously, does the entire population have to rise up in anger for this to end? I know these alarmists can’t let go – and this is probably the closest they’ll get for a while to global domination (so I DO understand it) – but have they no sense of self-preservation? Do we have to prize power from their cold dead fingers? Really?!
I like the way they neatly cut out the other side of the situation by saying that even though the winters are milder, the “global warming” causes more intense cold and so winter mortality is up to!
Clearly that had a preconceived “answer” and have constructed their “research” to confirm it. I remember a British study from a few years ago that said that under a warmer climate there would be increased mortality in summer but the reduction in winter mortality was greater and the net result was fewer deaths overall from extreme temperatures
Compare this model output with the known tens of thousands of deaths in Great Britain which are attributed to attempts to mitigate climate change.
Why use GISS Temp? KNMI Climate Explorer is much better, and the full (non blended) Stockholm series from 1756-2011 is found here: http://climexp.knmi.nl/ecatemp.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&WMO=10&STATION=STOCKHOLM&extraargs=
Stockholm is NOT a representative station for Sweden. The variability in temperature in Stockholm is different from the stations in the north (eg. Haparanda) and the much more, humid and mild maritime influenced climate in the southwest of the country (eg. Gothenburg).
A thermometer moved to a metal cage outside an upstairs window in 1875?
In other words, you can disregard all readings from that one.
Perhaps we should give these climate pseudo-scientists a copy of Richard Feynman’s cargo cult speech to read (http://neurotheory.columbia.edu/~ken/cargo_cult.html)
Then get them to repeat the Manta “Correlation does not imply causation”
Seriously if this is the level Climate sciences has dropped to then it isn’t a science it’s a cult.
I have no problem if the pseudo-science whack jobs that wrote the paper used claims like
– “Given the statistical correlation we suggest there may be a link”
– “There is a strong indication that there may be a link”
– “We have a theory that there is a link between … ”
But no these pseudo-science whack jobs framed there paper to this question:
We aim to answer a key question; the extent to which mortality due to temperature extremes in Stockholm, Sweden during 1980–2009 can be attributed to climate change that has occurred since our reference period (1900–1929).
So where are the autopsy reports?
I can give you viable answers for the Correlation and just taking topical media stories of late
– People are drinking far more high sugar drinks
– People are eating a lot more McDonalds and there are more McDonalds stores
– People are stressed and working longer in summer because of the GFC
I am sure we could make a list of thousands if we really wanted to.
The whole point to Richard Feynman’s speech was to remind scientists they have an obligation to science integrity which these climate pseudo-scientists fail.
life expectancy at birth in my home state of Kerala, India…is in the high seventies now…its much warmer than Sweden…i wonder why all the people are not dropping dead from the heat.
Politically correct pseudoscience from the EU.
The rent seekers who get a lavish wage to occupy seats in formerly scientific institutions plunder the public purse and contribute to the downfall of Scandinavia.
It was a nice place when I visited Stockholm 14 years ago. Since that time the place has gone to hell. Looks like they’re bent on accelerating.
Lord I could cringe. We on the warmist side do our best to spread the word that there is a problem in how we treat our environment and that humans are effecting climate change, and we are continually undermined by idiotic studies like this. Are you sure these guys are not working for the skeptic side of the climate debate?
Are 300 extra deaths over almost 30 year statistically significant? Why did they choose 1900 to 1929? What if they chose 1910 to 1939?
When it’s warm during summer people are more likely to go out, drink alcohol and get into problems and sometimes meet their maker. As the world has warmed Sweden’s suicide rate has been declining, therefore global warming means fewer Swedish suicides? Hey, we are all allowed to speculate.
Did it mean 1,500 more premature deaths in Sweden as a whole?
Grrrrrrr.
The official temperature record from Stockholm can be found here:
http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/temperatur/1.2847
The warm years are about as warm now as they were in the 1930-1940 period.
The climate is the same as it was before. There hasn’t been any deaths — none — because of the phantom climate change.
And by the way, I’ve previously commented here for us skeptics to branch out and bring the argument to mainstream and science sites. And I specifically called out phys.org as a site for us to join and be heard.
Guess what? Now Michael Mann is getting irked by skeptical comments on phys,org, and is clearly trying to get phys.org to join the likes of the LA Times in censoring skeptics.
M Mann tweeted: Wow–the comment thread on this @physorg_com #climatechange piece sure smells like #Koch: http://phys.org/news/2013-10-people-dont-high-climate.html
Interesting, MMann has picked on a thread that atypically does have more skeptics than warmists, but usually it’s the opposite. Now I say join the fight at phys.org and elsewhere. Mann is aware of the “damage” we are doing, so he is making a cowardly squawk. If they go ahead and admit that they cannot meet us one on one in argument, and instead employ Gestapo censorship tactics to silence the opposing point of view, then we’ve won, and we she should make a lot of noise about it. And there’s reason to continue to highlight the LA Times decision to silence skeptics. Ultimately, these type of censorship decisions will boomerang, as the public at large will realize the abhorrent hypocrisy of the supposed free but leftist press, and even more of a spotlight will be put on the astonishingly weak case presented by the fear mongering Chicken Littles.
The SMHI has three stations in Stockholm but I could not yet find any information on them before 1961, whereafter the data is available here:
http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/2.1102
unfortunately this service seems to be available on in Swedish. You can download either daily or monthly data (in the parameter window “dygnsvis” = daily). The station you are looking at seems to be this:
Klimatnummer: 9821
WMO-nummer: 2485
Latitud: 59.34 grader (dec)
Longitud: 18.06 grader (dec)
RakX: 6582250 m
RakY: 1627960 m
Nuv. stationshöjd: 44 m (meaning current station height)
I’ll look deeper into this when I have time…
“One wonders what the site looked like in 1929 and if the weather station was in the same location.”
On the overhead view there is an open space to the North East of the site. According to this web page (and having used google to translate it) that open space had buildings on it in 1928. The page has an old photo and a more recently taken one showing the difference.
The building with a rotunda to the north of the site is Stockholm Public Library which was opened in 1928. Additional buildings were added to the library in the 30s and 50s.
The observatory and weather station are at the top of a hill. With the changes in buildings and open space around the bottom of the hill would this change the conditions at the top?
The data comes from a single station, in the “Observatiorielunden”. Here is the best site. You can download the entire series. Go to “Download” on the right side.
http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/temperatur/1.2847
Sorry, that would be go to “Ladda ner” on the right side.
Here you can see the city evolve by comparison of historical maps. The observatory is found in the green of the upper left corner of the map.
http://www.stockholmskallan.se/Jamfor-kartor/
And a graph of storks vs birth rate also shows a correlation.
Turns out there’s also a correlation between number of pirates and global temperature.
Seems like just another desperate call for MORE FUNDS!
I did not see any reference to the overall death rate of Sweden. That should be available in the official national statistics and would be the clearest indicator of “extra” deaths.
Most alarming is that these people will be unleashed on the world armed with PhDs.
For me , one of the most striking features of the GISS Stockholm is the 1939-1944 dip.
Is that a measure of the the local UHI effect in the city?
Swedan was a neutral country in WWII but was presumably still hit the stanglehold the war had on energy supplies.
Oh my god, there are people that are actually going to discuss this paper, analyze it.
The very maximum in Stockholm on their own charts in the dead of summer is near ≈27°C (≈80°F) and they are speaking of having “heat waves”, “extremely hot periods”, and more people assumed dying from a one or so Celsius increase over a century, from that? That 80°F, or their maximum summer temperature, is what I call the perfect comfortable temperature and I wish it was that year round.
I’m floored. I’m amazed. I’m shocked that anyone would do anything but immediately ridicule it and toss that peer-reviewed paper in the trash where it belongs along with the Nature journal that publishes such trash.
So they didn’t even check to find out what was causing the additional deaths, huh? Maybe for one portion crime.
Maybe since their median mid-summer temperature is 15°C (59°F) I would guess one fraction of the increase in deaths is people actually enjoying the abnormal summer warmth, drownings, boating accidents, motorcycle accidents, mountain climbing, etc, you know, taking risks instead of staying inside where it is warm and safe. Look at the dangerous things we do today compared to 80 years ago when it gets warm. We do drive now too, fast. Did they take this into account? Doubt it but it is pay-walled as usual and this paper is simply unadulterated propaganda as usual. I’ve got to save this one for the best perfect example.
Anthony
Have you tried http://rimfrost.no/ for Stockholm temperature?
See the graph here: http://www.sportsys.nu/klima/data/hovedsteder/stockholm.gif
Regards, Agust.
These researchers didn’t read the study of Keatinge e.a. which showed that cold related mortality is about 10 times stronger than heat related mortality. Moreover, the heat related extra mortality is compensated with a reduction in mortality in the months after the heat wave, but that is not the case for a cold snap. Thus the heat related mortality is mostly from people that would have died anyway a few weeks to a few months later:
http://www.bmj.com/content/321/7262/670 for Europe
and
http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/155/1/80.abstract for the USA
Is that a tarmac road next to the weather station?
Is it just possible that they looked at other periods to compare? Is it possible that when they looked they could not find what they were looking for and shifted for their preferred period? Is it possible they began their study looking or the global warming increased death link? Perish the thought, I am 100% confident whey did none of the above. / HEAVY SARC.
I happen to live in Stockholm and Observatorielunden (As seen in the picture above) is the classic site and there are some really old records from this site, but it has been moved several times in the past. I have a report done by Moberg about the temperature records from this site. It is a lot of guesswork. This is from the report:
“During 1756-1875 the thermometer was hung in the free air outside a north-facing
window on the second floor of the old astronomical observatory building in
Stockholm. No detailed description is available on this site.
During 1876-1960 the thermometer was placed outside a north-facing window
on the first floor of the old astronomical observatory building in Stockholm.
A window-screeen was in use since 1878.
During 1961- summer 2006 the thermometer was placed in a SMHI-screen
(Stevenson-type screen) about ten metres north-east of the former position.
Since summer 2006, a platinum resistance thermometer in a modern cylindrical
screen close to the SMHI-screen replaced the mercury thermometer in the
SMHI-screen.”
In modern time the Stockholm temperature is reported from Stockholm-Bromma airport, not Observatorielunden. BTW Stockholm-Bromma Airport did open in 1930 and that might be the reason why there is a change in 1930.
The clame is of course preposterous. There are very few days each year in Stockholm when the temperature reaches 30 degree C. In 2013 there were none. Above 25 is also rare, a few days each year, this summer maybe 5 days might have been less.
I spent a very pleasant interlude in Stockholm during the summer of 1999 in which the temperature reached 34 celsius. It rated as a heat wave for Sweden but, compared to real heat waves in my home town of Perth, Western Australia, it was still quite pleasant. I find it difficult to conceive how such conditions could cause mortalities amongst Swedish residents, especially as they show evident delight in heading off to places like the Mediterranean coast and roasting themselves to a very red state. Ruligt!
I don’t see where they tested for the effects on climate due to the deaths in Stockholm. That’s part of my explanation for the pause in warming. All those deaths due to CO2 mitigation policies and their costs means fewer humans which means less ‘A’ in AGW. The heat isn’t hiding in the oceans. It’s being buried in the ground.
They got cause and effect reversed.
Alan Robertson says:
October 24, 2013 at 1:04 am
Compare this model output with the known tens of thousands of deaths in Great Britain which are attributed to attempts to mitigate climate change.
I’d like to see that data. Can you cite a reference?
Gareth Phillips says:
October 24, 2013 at 1:37 am
Lord I could cringe. We on the warmist side do our best to spread the word that there is a problem in how we treat our environment and that humans are effecting climate change, and we are continually undermined by idiotic studies like this. Are you sure these guys are not working for the skeptic side of the climate debate?
Yeah, I smell #Koch funding this university. Someone ought to make Mickey Mann aware of this.
Sadly this sort of BS “study” has become the norm in reent years. It is now an international industry. With it’s own lobby influence on government.
The net result of the alramism is the new UK govt. deal with Areava/EDF which will DOUBLE the price of nuclear pwered generation in Britain.
The “strike price” agreed by the govt. is about twice the going rate.
The inflation lined, return on investment that this guarantees for Areva is 10% per… every year, for the 35 ( then extented..) year life of the installation. That’s equivalent to a SIXTEEN FOLD payback over the full period.
In an economic context where even the high rates of interest payed on home mortgage loans is around 2% we can wonder how they can accept a deal giving 10% p.a. profits.
This study seem to happily sit beside those like the second hand smoke study done here in the UK a few years back, which concluded that premature deaths were increasing, by including those who were in their 80s!!!!! My suggestion? This study, like all the other model studies, should be cut into little A5 rectangles, neatly bundled together, have a hole punched in the top left-hand corner, a string threaded through said hole, & be hung on a nail in the smallest room in the lab building! Just my opinion. When will these guys remember that we’re not all as stupid as they are, extrapolate at your peril, correlation does not necessarily equal causation, & the first rule of toxicology is the poison is in the dosage (modern medicine is based upon it)! What do they teach in universities today? 😉
Morgan in Sweden: “In modern time the Stockholm temperature is reported from Stockholm-Bromma airport, not Observatorielunden. BTW Stockholm-Bromma Airport did open in 1930 and that might be the reason why there is a change in 1930.”
Good work. That look like the station swap. GISS would presumably select the longest continuous record and tack in the earlier data for previous periods.
Since the study is not looking at REAL deaths , the whole thing is a farce anyway.
I wonder what changes have occurred in life expectancy in the intervening period? Could it have something to do with more aged people dying? Did they do look at the ages of the people dying?
Not terribly interested in this one. If their model is bad enough, then life at the equator must be suicide. More likely is that it’s based on an expectation of people in less warm areas getting caught out in a hot room without an air conditioner. Similar things have happened a few years back in France (Power outage + heat wave, IIRC) and there were validated morality bumps from heat strokes. But the juxtaposition of ‘Swedish Bikini Team’ and ‘heat stroke’ just aren’t stroking my credibility meter. And I highly doubt they looked at heat stroke stats is Sweden. Or even that more that 2 guys in a runaway sauna suffer such a fate yearly.
Also, for some reason, GISS can’t seem to get data updated for Stockholm past 1994, even though the station continues to produce data.
Sweden has a reputation for opposing the use of torture. Perhaps they refuse to hand over the data on moral grounds?
Was there any allowance made for the increase in population between the two arbitrary study periods?
So the average T has gone up, causing more modelled deaths, plus cold periods have increased, causing more deaths.
So wonderful, when one can use averages to fit one’s case, and then depart from averages where desired, to fit one’s case. But everything must fit the case!.
Where do these idiots come from?
Bloke down the pub… “Sweden has a reputation for opposing the use of torture. Perhaps they refuse to hand over the data on moral grounds?”
Brilliant!
I suppose getting data on the weather station advances knowledge and helps future researchers understand the quality of temperature measurements of one station. Anything past a loud guffaw is too much effort for this paper. They give Ph. D.’s for this kind of junk science? “Climate change” is a nothing phrase that seems to have many, varied and mysterious meanings. How does one define a death as “premature”? It would seem that any death short of execution for particularly heinous murder could be classified as premature. I got two things out of this posting: a good laugh at the state of “climate science” and LdB’s link to the Feynman “Cargo Cult” paper.
The warmists are trying to solve a health problem that does not exist. The warmists should take on health problems that do exist.
Refined Sugar Consumption Trends in Past 300 Years:
• In 1700, the average person consumed about 4 pounds of sugar per year.
• In 1800, the average person consumed about 18 pounds of sugar per year.
• In 1900, individual consumption had risen to 90 pounds of sugar per year.
• In 2009, more than 50 percent Americans consume 1/2 pound of sugar per day, which is 180 pounds of sugar per year.
In 1890, obesity rate in the US for white males, age group 50’s only, were 3.4%. In 1975, the obesity rate in the US of all population was 15%. In 2009, 32% of Americans are obese. In 1893, there were fewer than 3 diabetes per 100,000 people in US. Today, there are 8,000 diabetes per 100,000 people in US. Due to increased consumption of sugar particularly among young minority adults the incidence of diabetes is expected to increase from 1 in 10 to 1 in 3. Type 2 diabetes once a disease of middle age, now 30% of all new cases are in adolescences due to consumption of sugary drinks and fatty foods.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20368739
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22129639
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23482247
Here is another health problem the warmists could take on. Almost 50% of Americans are severely Vitamin D deficient, particularly Blacks and Latinos. For roughly $0.05/day this problem can be resolved with Vitamin D and calcium supplements.
http://www.grassrootshealth.org/events/seminars.php
The research results predict that 75% of deaths from all common cancers could be prevented with adequate intake of vitamin D and calcium.
http://www.ucsd.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=16940
In a new study, researchers at the UCSD School of Medicine and Moores Cancer Center used a complex computer prediction model to determine that the intake of vitamin D3 and calcium would prevent 58,000 new cases of breast cancer and 49,000 new cases of colorectal cancer annually in the US and Canada. The researchers’ model also predicted that 75% of deaths from these cancers could be prevented with adequate intake of vitamin D3 and calcium. Join Dr. Cedric Garland, lead researcher on the study, as he discusses the implications of these findings and the proposed actions. (#16940)
http://www.ucsd.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=15773
Stockholm old Observatory was without any tree in the surroundings in the old days.
In Swedish with old pictures:
http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholms_gamla_observatorium
Pictures of today:
http://genius-loci.se/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Axels-bild1.jpg
“Furthermore, we saw that even though the winters have become milder, extremely cold periods occurred more often, which also contributed to a small increase in mortality during the winter.”
This is called having your cake and eating it!
Every summer hordes of Swedish tennis supporters descend upon Melbourne for the Australian Open and despite temperatures well into the 30s, I don’t recall hearing of any deaths attributed to the high temperature. Maybe Tennis Australia will have to consider the possibility of air conditioning the Rod Laver arena to cater for thermally challenged Swedish tennis supporters, in exchange the Swedish government can pay for the thin air offset credits (going cheap right now in the EUssr carbon market).
Now I live in Norway, a little further North than Stockholm and next to the North Sea so my reference may be a bit skewed here (for a start Stavanger’s weather is influenced by the gulf stream, which Stockholm misses out on) but summer temperatures here rarely approach 30C, even with worse than we thought gullible warming, so one would have to say this group’s claim is drawing a rather long bow (that increasing summer maximum temperatures from twenty something to twenty something plus a couple of decimals is actually going to stress humans to the point of premature death).
Maybe, if the modelling isn’t completely bogus, an alternative conclusion might be that the pussification of European society has managed to weaken the population’s physical stamina in addition to weakening everything else?
“Ken Hall says:
October 24, 2013 at 3:40 am”
I’d say no. Just as in Australia where bush fires are now the “worst ever in recoded history” (Meh! Not even close), I wonder how many people lived in fire prone areas back in the 1850’s? In any case, it’s modelled “data”. Not even carp!
I have been debating this for years in Aus and I truly despair at the number of people who fully, hook, line and sinker, believe this computer modelled output as actual observed fact. Sad reflection on the human race, apparently the most intelligent creature on this rock!
The population of Stockholm in 2000 was 750,348 and in 2010, 847,073 so lets call that an average of 800,000 over the decade.
The crude death rate in Sweden over that period was around ten per thousand so in the period 2000 to 2010 about 8,000 Stockholmians (?) died per year.
The paper claims to detect about 300 excess deaths over the 30 years from 1980 to 2009 or about ten per year. This means that their method was able to detect an increase in deaths per year of 0.125%. Powerful statistics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Vital_statistics_since_1900
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm#Demographics
If Swedes drop like flies during a ‘warm’ day (30C) then why do they holiday in warmer climes in excess of 30C? Do Swedes sweat? Human beings are tropical animals. What is wrong with these people? Where I am it’s 35C and I am already feeling dizzy. a;nw5;oin;izvn l;zme………………….. 🙂
Publish or perish. CAGW is well funded. Researchers have mortgages too.
Scandinavians sit in saunas at 80-100C then jump into icy water. But a 27C day kills them. Yep, sounds plausible.
Wonder if the statistics dept records deaths by calendar date? Might be able to verify actual deaths against actual temp in Stockholm. Should be obvious if they’re dropping off on hot days.
And here is the report for Stockholm 1756-2005.
http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.17736!webbNr27_eng_ver.pdf
This is the “short” version of the scientific report made for the public.
Qudos to SG This type of info is crucial for future trials as his records of USA temp tampering
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/10/24/latest-from-the-arctic-data-tampering-department/
If there is no cause of death attached, i’m putting them all them all down to food poisoning from bad BBQ food..
Seriously, cause of death really is quite important. Stockholm is also one of the fastest growing cities in Europe in terms of population, so it’s hardly surprising that the number is bigger than 100 years ago (population increase of over 500K since 1900). Another junk study.
The station in 2011
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SMHI_Observatoriekullen_2011.jpg
Part of the chart showing mean temperature for februari and july since 1756
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Observatoriet_v%C3%A4derkammer_2013a.jpg
Also worth to notice is that Stockholms new obsevatory at Saltsjöbaden was finished in june 1931.
And the “longer” scientific version
http://www.homogenisation.org/files/private/WG1/Bibliography/Applications/Applications%20(A-B)/BERGSTROM_and_MOBERG_2002.pdf
[/sarc]
I was gonna mention tampering of Stockholm data by GISS as well. Use the raw data instead. Meanwhile..
[sarc]
We’re DOOMED!! I did some really sloppy programming and it says we’re all gonna die in goalpost-moved 30-something hours, days, years.. something!
Maybe Hansen, Mann or Santer hacked my ‘puter. But I doubt I got the instructions wrong. In any case, I won’t share the data. Go away!
[/sarc]
The very second paragraph
Quote
Global warming does not only give a general increase in temperature, but it also increases the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. Previous studies have shown that these changes are associated with increased mortality, especially during extremely hot periods. It also speculated that mortality associated with extreme cold could decrease as a result of a warmer climate.
Unquote
The built in bias is immediately obvious. “It also increases” and “increased mortality” during hot periods. compare with ” It is speculated” and “extreme cold could”.
That single paragraph just sums it all up.
biased rubbish
Sorry researchers – numbers are not good enough! I want names. They need to provide the names of the 300 who died otherwise they just made this up.
What they appear to think is an unbearably “hot” day, 25 C (or 77 F) is where I keep my air conditioner set during the Texas summers. And then I keep my heat set at 23 C during the winters! (I don’t like a real big range inside my house)
Amazing I’m still alive, I suppose. I wonder if they could even fathom why I would never want to live any farther north than I do right now.
Looking at the 2 day temperature distribution, at no time did the temperatures exceed 25C. Temperatures below 28C are fatal to unprotected humans. They cannot eat enough food to maintain body temperature and die from exposure.
Normal body temperature is 37C. The only way temperatures as low as Stockholm could actually kill anyone is by cooling, or by faulty models.
When we look at the top 50 causes of death in Sweden, the only heat related cause is fire. Surely Climate Change is not causing buildings to burst into flames.
Influenza & Pneumonia is number 8, which is definitely associated more with cold weather than hot. Dementia is number 3 which may help explain this latest paper.
1 Coronary Heart Disease
2 Stroke
3 Alzheimers/Dementia
4 Lung Cancers
5 Colon-Rectum Cancers
6 Prostate Cancer
7 Lung Disease
8 Influenza & Pneumonia
9 Diabetes Mellitus
10 Breast Cancer
11 Pancreas Cancer
12 Other Injuries
13 Hypertension
14 Suicide
15 Lymphomas
16 Falls
17 Other Neoplasms
18 Kidney Disease
19 Leukemia
20 Stomach Cancer
21 Bladder Cancer
22 Liver Disease
23 Skin Cancers
24 Ovary Cancer
25 Liver Cancer
26 Endocrine Disorders
27 Inflammatory/Heart
28 Parkinson Disease
29 Road Traffic Accidents
30 Oesophagus Cancer
31 Peptic Ulcer Disease
32 Oral Cancer
33 Poisonings
34 Uterin Cancer
35 Alcohol
36 Congenital Anomalies
37 Cervical Cancer
38 Anaemia
39 Skin Disease
40 Multiple Sclerosis
41 Rheumatic Heart Disease
42 Asthma
43 Rheumatoid Arthritis
44 Diarrhoeal diseases
45 Drownings
46 Drug Use
47 Epilepsy
48 Fires
49 Violence
50 Depression
In school I was taught the difference between correlation and causation with aa classic example that involved violent crime rates in the summer versus the winter. Summertime rates are much higher than wintertime rate. One, at first glance, may be led to believe that the warm weather makes people more violent. However the real explanation was one of availability: there are more public crowds in warmer weather than colder weather and just the increased contact time between strangers accounted for the higher rates of violent crime.
So did these jokers control for the types of deaths ? Are they all from heat stroke? Or are some deaths from accidents, murder, etc. which simply could mean that when it’s warm people are “out and about” more.
There are numerous studies documenting “premature” or “excess” death due to COLD more than heat.
Climate Change Reconsidered Interim Report 2011 Ch 9 Human Health Effects reviews 9.1 Temperature Related Human Mortality
An international team studying 15 European cities
Climate Change Reconsidered 2013 section 7.1.5 reviews Cold Weather Extremes
Multiple deprivation and excess winter deaths in Scotland
Contrast the far higher cost of cooking on biomass in developing countries:
Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: household energy Wilkinson et al. November 25, 2009 DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61713-X
Review the Copenhagen Consensus which addresses ALL the major humanitarian projects and ranks them according to the greatest benefits to costs.
The astronomers moved from the old observatory to the new one in 1929-30. The old observatory was transfered to the city and the area made in to a public park. The geographical institute moved in to the buildings 1934. It is now a museum. I suspect the astronomers brought the station with them. They did so in Oslo when they moved about the same time.
The observatory history in swedish:
http://www.observatoriet.kva.se/museet/Var-historia/
Descartes died from a cold caught after grueling, infamous 5 a.m. philosophy sessions with Cartesian Christina, in the cold of her Swedish castle.
Nine pensioners died from cold EVERY HOUR last winter as bill prices soar
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1332343/Nine-pensioners-died-cold-hour-winter-prices-soar.html
Two hundred people, most of them elderly, will die in Britain of cold-related diseases every day this winter
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2011/oct/22/older-people-cold-energy-bills
In the UK we are a bit more worried about the cold.
The Conservative government, whose colours are Blue, had an election slogan:
“Vote Blue; go Green!”
As we run into winter, it is now looking increasingly like:
“Vote Green, go blue…”
Swedes are famous for boiling themselves in saunas and then jumping through holes in ice-covered lakes to cool off. Just wondering if the model factored in what appears to be a genetic tolerance to temperature extremes.
(half /sarc)
The first whiff that indicates this paper came from one of the crocks of sh*t Mann and pals are busy filling is the lack of any evidence at all that the temperatures experienced during a summer in Stockholm can be bad for one’s health. The second whiff showing this is a paper that was used to clean up after filling a crock of sh*t is that they cannot offer any evidence at all that the temperatures involved were linked to the causes of death.
The third whiff that confirms that this is yet another product of the seemingly endless crocks of sh*t produced by AGW promoters is that in defining a heat wave as temperature in the 70o F range is an abuse of the definition that is designed to deceive the reader who is not willing to exercise critical thinking skills. This study is more appropriate to the field of psychology, where theories like “positive human functioning” and Lewandowsky’s pleas for help are taken as serious scholarship.
Then again, AGW workers have never actually provided rigorous science in their doomsday promotion.
Confounding factors: an aging population
changing population size
changing etnic composition
changes in average income (affordability of heating/cooling/clothing)
etc ..
Have the authors “measured” a decrease/change in winter mortality with the same methods, as a zero order check on the data?
I understand now why the cook was Swedish.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_heat_wave#Sweden
According to the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), the city of Lund in Skåne in southern Sweden had the highest average temperatures (day and night: 21.6 °C (70.9 °F)) for the month of July since records began in 1859. The rest of Sweden has however not broken the daily average temperatures from the record year 1994.
Målilla and Ultuna are the places where the highest temperature ever in Sweden was recorded, 38 °C (100 °F), in 1947 and 1933 respectively.
@gopal panicker
It’s because it’s hot in India, so everybody has air conditioning!
…at least that’s what I extrapolate from the theory posited in the original paper, saying that Sweden has no cooling infrastructure.
I may be putting too much stock in the opinion of nimrods…
Drowning is also heat related death cause here in Nordics. At least in Finland (next to Sweden), Finns tend to go swimming and various levels of drunken state and drown. And that mostly happens when it is very warm and sunny day.
@hunter,
Indeed, it’s been a virtual crock-storm lately from the desperate climatists, watching in horror as their precious Warmist ideology gets flushed down the tubes. At this rate, can Crockageddon be far behind?
So what about the other side of the coin – decreased deaths due to not-so-frigid winters?
Yeah, this is why life expectancy is dropping in Sweden. Or is it?
Looks like a job for Dr. Ross (Superstats) McKitrick.
Me? I’m gonna have a dish of ice cream to cool down.
People die in the winter, if they get too cold…
…people die in the summer, if the get too hot
More people die as populations increase, because there’s more people living below the poverty line and there’s an older population
The article is of course only to laugh at, too high summer temperatures are hardly a problem Stockholm 🙂
The observatory is though very nice and located on a hill right in the middle of the city. You will find a lot of references here: http://bolin.su.se/data/stockholm/
The temperature series provided by SMHI include the raw data and adjusted data for UHI etc. A related temperature series is the one from Uppsala, 150 km north of Stockholm.
http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.2864!stockholm_daily_mean_temperature_1756_2012.zip
http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.2866!uppsala_tm_1722-2012.zip
For starters, according to the data listed in the SI, the supposed extra deaths due to climate change manifesting itself as increased summer temperatures came from model output; they didn’t actually have health services data/coroner data that showed causes of death.
This is standard practice in tobacco studies. The number of casualties of tobacco (usually 400,000) is a projection. There are no actual dead bodies with data showing cause of death.
My point exactly and thanks for the numbers. The ALLEGED ‘detection’ of 300 deaths over 30 years is laughable. I’m sure some people die of heatstroke, just like in many other places, but is it worth a paper?
And in related weather news:
Wow, lot of angst in here. Just so everyone’s aware and on the level: Modeled death blame like this has been stock and trade in epidemiology for ages. Especially when it comes to moral opprobriums like tobacco, alcohol, and heating oil.
This is not only nothing new, this is Best Practices in the Science of bean-counting roadkill.
It appears that the same data was also used for another current paper in another journal (bold mine):
I was able to download this paper from the linked page above by clicking on “Article as pdf” on the right hand side of the page.
It appears that substituting Kristie L. Ebi for Sörenb Edvinsson produced a different spin on the situation. By eliminating the focus on the intermediate years of 1930 – 1979, the authors got the paper published in a climate change journal with what seems to be a different angle. However, there is also a somewhat odd difference found between the two papers. Figure 1 in this paper purports to be the same a Figure 3 in the current paper under discussion:
[http://statpad.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/figure-1.jpg , in case the image does not show up.]
The numbers of “extreme events” are generally higher for both “hot” and “cold” categories in the Nature version. Without seeing a copy of that paper, it is not possible to tell why. My guess would be that the definition of “extreme” might have been changed. A side effect of this would likely include more deaths attributable to those “extremes”.
So if this study is correct, then Sweden’s anti-warming budget should be about 1% of their anti-cancer spending.
I have a very simple test to recommend to Daniel Oudin Åström. First, it will require setting up two identical chambers. (I was going to write ‘room’ but ‘chamber’ sounds more scientificky.) Now, one room…oops, chamber… will have an ample heating system and be set with an air temperature of 105 degrees Fahrenheit (sorry Celsius, but I can’t figure out the difference right now). And, the other one will have an ample refrigeration system and be set with an air temperature of minus…repeat, ‘minus’ 30 degrees.
Now being the brave, creative, forward gazing, starving scientist. Ok, stop. Starving scientist? I know there used to be the phrase, starving artist, but after climate scientists’ wreck the world’s economy it’ll be starving scientist as well. Anyway, being the intrepid scientist that he is Daniel Oudin Åström can simply enter one of the chambers and then the other. To insure that any externalities do not taint the findings Daniel Oudin Åström will have to enter the chambers without any clothes on but don’t worry, the observers will not be able to gaze upon him because the chambers won’t have any windows-phew!
Now, for some inexplicable reason we will observe Daniel Oudin Åström entering the heated chamber first. Ok, it’s not inexplicable: he will enter that chamber first because we know, before we even conduct this experiment, that unlike the refrigerated chamber, he will actually be able to leave the heated chamber under his own power. At this point the experiment will become a gamble. We, the taxpayers, will wager a bet with Daniel Oudin Åström that if he is willing to sit in the refrigerated chamber (nude of course) for exactly as long as the heated chamber (minimum time 2 hours) we will continue to fund his silly research. Ok, he won’t take that bet because he’s probably not insane. So, instead we will ask him why morgues are refrigerated and not heated, and if his research was mistakenly intended to determine the lifetimes of dead bodies versus live ones, and if a cold snap preserves a dead body better than a heat wave, and if his research was really directed towards preserving a dead body so it can continue to have voting rights not just in Chicago but throughout the whole world, and…
Lots of StuffIt in English: http://bolin.su.se/data/stockholm/
Stuff – not Stuffit 😉
RomanM says:
October 24, 2013 at 6:33 am
“It appears that substituting Kristie L. Ebi for Sörenb Edvinsson produced a different spin on the situation. By eliminating the focus on the intermediate years of 1930 – 1979, the authors got the paper published in a climate change journal with what seems to be a different angle. ”
Hey great. After the slightly dull “Fatal Heat Effects” we got “Fatal Heat Effects Director’s Cut” with more screaming and sound and editing out the lengthy boring second act; now I hope for a sequel, maybe “Fatal Heat Effects After Tomorrow” with more CGI.
We’re going to need an app for that and database to keep track of what amounts to a global pandemic of faulty research tied to global warming political science objectives.
Haven’t you noticed the tremendous number of deaths when New Yorkers head to Florida. The tremendous change in temperature just makes them drop dead on the spot.
More info: 10 year temperature average in Sweden had its maximum in 2005 and has declined since then and in 2012 it was exactly the same as in 1935. http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.2435!image/temp_ar_tom_2012.png_gen/derivatives/fullSizeImage/temp_ar_tom_2012.png
The figure for the 10 years average for both years is 0,78 above average 1961-1990
Jimbo, you were kidding weren’t you when you said “I’m sure some people die of heatstroke [in Sweden], just like in many other places …”? But heatstrokes at 80°F? Where’d you hear that? Don’t remember ever hearing 80°F as being “hot weather”. Where I live, when it’s hot, I mean it’s REAL hot weather!
Mayo Clinic:
Heatstroke is caused by prolonged exposure to high temperatures or by doing physical activity in hot weather. You are considered to have heatstroke when your body temperature reaches 104°F (40°C) or higher.
Regarding the report for the temperature serie for Stockholm 1756 to 2005 I mention earlier in this thread.
All temperature data raw as well as homogenised can be found here: http://bolin.su.se/data/stockholm/air_temperature.php
These studies remind me of how not to do science. So many illogical inputs and conclusions in one paper.
What year did Sweden adopt socialized medicine?
Ferd berple says:
October 24, 2013 at 5:25 am
Looking at the 2 day temperature distribution, at no time did the temperatures exceed 25C. Temperatures below 28C are fatal to unprotected humans. They cannot eat enough food to maintain body temperature and die from exposure.
28C ?! Presumably a typo, but what is the correct figure?
There are some remarkable statements in this thread!
Did I get this right? They did not use mortality data from the reference period, but somehow calculated the number of deaths based on assumptions? The same author(s?) DID use mortality data from the early period in another study. Why did they drop the mortality data and used a calculation instead?
Re: RomanM, the Epidemiology study:
This Nature study:
Watch the pea – only recent health data.
and
The question is, why did they erase the early health data? Or did I miss something here.
Modelling climate has become an unlimited deceitful endeavor that is metastasizing into every institution capable of pretending to be conducting science with objectives intended to contribute to global public manipulation.
It’s a disgraceful magnitude of institutionalized misrepresentation humanity as never seen before with participants’ displaying an attitude that their scurrilous behavior is somehow acceptable or even noble because everybody does it?
According to official statistics (http://www.scb.se/Pages/TableAndChart____91828.aspx) approx 90000 Swedes die every year. Times 30 years makes 2.7 million. An “extra” 1 500 during the same period means an increase with 0.00055 %. Statistically significant?
The first thing that hit me was 1900-1929. They are obviously ignoring the 1930’s and 1940’s which in the USA at least were warmer, but the temperatures are being conveniently suppressed.
Anyone who didnt arrive in a private jet
“Twerking will not solve Climate Change”
Eco Hypocrisy at its grandest
http://uk.eonline.com/news/472194/2013-environmental-media-awards-the-complete-list-of-winners
Copy and paste and get ready with the sick bag.
@Per T –
It’s actually 0.056%. But point well made.
Check out the coauthor Kristie L Ebi.
Science “was settled” before this publication.
Have the researchers ever looked at a Minnesota phone book? All those Swedish folks survived moving to the land of 10,000 lakes so I doubt some warmth in the home land would harm them.
ilmastotiede says:
October 24, 2013 at 7:58 am
“The question is, why did they erase the early health data? Or did I miss something here.”
Landed on the cutting floor to improve the overall flow of the paper.
If this was true for Sweden then people should be dropping like flies here in Florida.
jam south london says:
October 24, 2013 at 8:12 am
“Anyone who didnt arrive in a private jet
“Twerking will not solve Climate Change”
Eco Hypocrisy at its grandest”
Hayden Panettiere is right. As the end of Climate Change predates Twerking by 17 years, there cannot be a causal link. Probably letsbuyit.com solved climate change inadvertently.
climate in no way killed anyone, WEATHER does……..and the climate in no way controls the weather, the climate is is simple honest FACTUAL terms only the average WEATHER of the previous 30 years…….
until the folks can grasp that reality and understand climate CHANGE is the 100% NATURAL state of this planet……the climate is always changing, again because the climate is simply the average of the previous weather.
Réaumur says:
October 24, 2013 at 2:58 am
Alan Robertson says:
October 24, 2013 at 1:04 am
“Compare this model output with the known tens of thousands of deaths in Great Britain which are attributed to attempts to mitigate climate change.”
—————————–
I’d like to see that data. Can you cite a reference?
___________________________________________
I have no link to studies, but to several news items detailing deaths due to pensioners in Great Britain being unable to afford heating bills. A large part of the cost is attributed to Green energy initiatives mandated by British Gov’t, with green taxes adding £112 to annual heating costs. This is not information which gov’t subsidized studies are likely to trumpet.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-20425364
http://www.ekprocure.co.uk/news-market-trends/
http://beforeitsnews.com/weather/2013/03/deaths-up-by-30000-in-big-freeze-by-nathan-rao-daily-express-2439760.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1332343/Nine-pensioners-died-cold-hour-winter-prices-soar.html
http://www.thegwpf.org/uk-winter-deaths-30000-big-freeze/
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/301641/1M-Brits-dead-in-winter-scandal
Well according to Accuweather, in the months of June, July and August of this year the temperature of Stockholm was 80F or above on only 6 days. And no days exceeded 83F. http://www.accuweather.com/en/se/stockholm/314929/july-weather/314929?monyr=7/1/2013
So are we to believe those old Vikings are dropping like flies because of this? Possibly they aren’t as sturdy a lot as we once thought.
Do the current occupants of Sweden think; OMG we’re having beautiful weather. We’re all gonna die!
Sorry- make that 7 days when the temperature of Stockholm was 80F or above.
Its the COLD not global warming that we should be worried about
The question no one has yet answered for me is how did this tripe get published in any science journal. I would laugh but it is actually a corruption of science integrity and science methodology whether you believe in climate change or not.
If a student actually gave me that I would grade it an F or UG because it really isn’t science and to publish it and promote it goes beyond belief.
Obviously if people actually die then it is tragic.
But I am bemused in that I thought the Danes were made of sterner stuff than to be dying when there is a small frequency increase in avg T over two days in the 15 – 30 deg range. This is the most benign T range possible surely. Bit hard to analyse what they say without an actual extreme T distribution.
I don’t know of a city in Oz which does not regularly get well into the 30’s and often exceeds 40 deg C in summer. Few drop dead here due to the heat. One does not really need air con to survive; hop into the shower.
Perhaps people are just living longer now and their frailty is on display towards the end of their lives. This seems to be born out if the milder winters are also increasing the death rates. Again we are not told what “extreme” T means.
Will this gravy train of tall stories ever end?
Now this one is a real gem:
“In addition, the researchers only examined mortality in really extreme temperatures. Therefore, the number of premature deaths caused by less extreme temperatures is not included in the study.”
In other words, if 30 deg C kill you quickly, just wait what 20 deg C will do to you. You might not notice it and it might take 80 years but the 20 deg C is a silent killer…
Maybe this is the Sokal affair of climate change. This is basically too good to be true.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal_affair
This is indeed cause for grave concern. Similar studies should be immediately carried out for Glasgow, Murmansk, Anchorage, and Vladivostok.
Living outside of Gothenburg I find it incredulous that there can be a heat related death here in Sweden outside of a sauna. My Swedish wife often wears Long Johns during the course of the summer(she is not the only one that I know of either).
Thinking out loud:
1. The temperature series posted by Anthony is spliced from two different stations or has been GISS “adjusted” by cooling the first half. Another thought: The upper half may have been adjusted warmer by a smear from a nearby station such as the one at the airport. In either case, look at nearby station data to see if anything matches that warmer upper half or the cooler lower half.
2. This study has no control. But it passed peer review.
3. This study did not provide any indication it was a robust significant conclusion by its lack of random sampling in other similar cities and the use of numbers of deaths versus percentage of population. But it passed peer review.
4. This study has such a poor methods section it cannot adequately or accurately measure cause and effect. But it passed peer review.
5. This study includes conclusions not supported by the research section. But it passed peer review.
So what is the most significant finding here? Pal reviewed to give a sympathetic warmer his Ph.D. “green” card so he could join the club.
Epidemiology study:
Nature study:
Maybe Kristie Ebi’s background with the energy industry (EPRI) is the reason for the different emphasis.
“Daniel Oudin Åström says that despite the long-standing debate about climate change, Swedes have not changed their attitude and willingness to protect themselves against extreme temperatures.”
WTF? What debate? The way they tell it, they are more certain than ever that climate change is man’s fault. So actually it is despite all the “certainty”, all the haranguing and hype about it, people still are ho-hum about it. Because realistically, they don’t see much if any change except perhaps in their ability to afford the very energy needed to help protect them from “extreme temperatures”.
The other researcher consultant was bemoaning about the fact that more people than they counted on to die, died in Chicago during a heat wave and they had to use refrigerated food trucks to keep the bodies cold while the morgues processed them for funeral homes. Here is the synopsis of the event. There was a festival in that city with lots of music, food, and drink. People came in droves to the festival, located in a part of the city particularly susceptible to urban heat island effects, mindless of the heat wave bearing down upon them. Some people died. More than they had prepared for. She states unequivocally that climate change was the culprit.
My question to her, had I been at the conference would have been: Was that climate change or stupidity? Chicago has had numerous heat waves over the decades and the more than a century it has existed as a large city. What did people do back then? My guess is that they stayed out of the heat and most certainly did not go to a music, food, and drink festival. So I ask again, are you claiming the cause of these unfortunate deaths to be climate change or human stupidity?
And by the way, the fact that the data was used in multiple published research reports is a common way of milking the data and pads the old citation log.
Let’s get this into perspective.
1,500 premature deaths in Sweden over 30 years is sad and regrettable.
30,000 UK excess winter deaths of 2012/2013 (a few months) is a travesty of monumental proportions! Should I multiply this figure by 30 years? This above paper belongs in the garbage.
Our Scandinavian friends need all the warmth they can get. 🙂
http://youtu.be/q5opSsAYQ3k
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/229819/Excess_winter_mortality_2012.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/elderhealth/9959856/Its-the-cold-not-global-warming-that-we-should-be-worried-about.html
@LdB says:
October 24, 2013 at 9:00 am
The way this stuff gets published is that it is recycled out of Dr. Mann’s crock of sh*t.
AGW believers have an endless appetite for Mann sh*t. and are willing to spend great sums of tax payer money in order to consume more of it, prepared in endless varitety by other rent seeking scientists competing to make new recipes.
This is rubbish in so many ways, but it is enough to note that I and most other Swedish people try to spend as much time as possible in Thailand and places like that.
@Berényi Péter says:
October 24, 2013 at 6:04 am
yes the failure of this paper to address the fact that Swedes are living longer is another great sign that the paper in question is actually yet another example of the endless production of AGW crocks of sh*t.
In reality the academies and instiutes that employ the authors should be lobbied to investigate them for malpractice. the process to challenge this paper until it is withdrawn should be undertaken.
It is difficult to tell the difference between this paper and a fabrication or deception.
O…M…G!!! Need windshield wipers for computer screen! Radi-aid for Norway??????
I think I have it, Swedes do die of heatstrokes in Sweden during summer. The better weather the better midsummer party!
According to this chart, about 4,000 people each year die in Sweden because of the cold, and this study was done during an alleged global warming period:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/goklany_winter_deaths_table1.png
” It also speculated that mortality associated with extreme cold could decrease as a result of a warmer climate.”
Translation: “We guess that if weather gets warmer, fewer will be die from the cold weather?”
Wow! Climate science at its best.
Its simple they knew a paper pushing AGW BS would always receive a ironic ‘warm welcome ‘ from Nature no matter how bad it was .
So you take some early work , so you got a two for one deal to start with , lose the bits that get in the way of what you need and push it out with heavy side order of models .
The authors get ‘another ‘ paper to their credit, and perhaps some more research cash . While Nature gets ‘proof ‘ of their beloved ’cause ‘ form a new source . Their winners all round , and even better its easy money .
And who in weeks time will even remember this BS ?
Think marketing pimping the latest fad and forget any’science’ then you will understand how this game works.
@ DirkH says:
October 24, 2013 at 9:30 am
Actually, I think much of what AGW promoters pass off as ‘science’ could be well described as confirming that the Sokol principal is actively at work in climate science today.
As a Swede, now also living in Sweden after many years abroad, this so called ‘paper’ from Umeå is a [yet another!] proof of the degeneration of the Swedish educational system in total, which actually started its downdwelling curve per the ‘actions’ of the ‘famed’ (hah!) mr Olof Palme. It’s going to take a couple of generations to get the [whole] educational/school-system back on track.
I’m ashamed to read/learn of such a drivel as being presented here, and on behalf of the, rather small but nevertheless number of Swedes still having & expressing their common sensed, and verifically & sciencically(?) correct knowledge of/on the ‘climate’ issue, I beg the rest of the blog World of Your esteemed pardon! (cuz they don’t know ehat they’re doing…)
As a Danish poet wrote, during the so called ‘potatoe-crisis’ in the ’80:ies;
“My country hurts [me]”.
Cheers from the Bestcoast of Sweden.
/TJ
PS: anyone wondering how-come Sweden is labelled ‘EUDSSR:s NorthKorea…??? //DS
From the Methods section: We collected daily mortality during the period 1980–2009 and daily temperature data for the period 1900–2009 for Stockholm County, Sweden. Temperature observations have been made at the same place since the 1750s. Urbanization at this location has led to a warming of about 0.7 ◦ C on average. The temperature data thus incorporated changes due to urbanization and the heat island effect
so, according their model, there were very few deaths in europe between 1940 and 1945?
More scientifically unsubstantiated speculation to support the cause.
How about this fact involving CO2:
Breathing ambient levels of atmospheric levels of CO2-now close to 400ppm(well mixed in the global atmosphere) since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution/burning of fossil fuels has resulted in a total of 0(zero) deaths.
When CO2 levels have doubled from humans burning fossil fuels, that number will likely still be 0.
Plants/crops across the planet, however are receiving massive benefits. Greenhouses, knowing this for decades have been boosting the level of CO2 to over 1,000.
All animals eat plants or something down the chain that ate plants, so the indisputable and massive benefits to the plant world have resulted in a much greater food supply for the animal world.
Food? What’s that? Somehow this fact seems to get placed way down in weighting on the discussion involving CO2.
http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/co2benefits/MonetaryBenefitsofRisingCO2onGlobalFoodProduction.pdf
This would be like 2 lions, fighting each other to the death over a little mouse, with 2 large and freshly killed wildebeest, one for each of them laying right there and a massive herd of 10,000 wildebeest waiting for the next kill.
One of the lions just wants to get to the wildebeest but the other lion insists that all mice are better and tastier and refuses to let this happen, and diverts the battle to winning the mouse.
Guess which lion represents the global warming/climate change alarmists?
Wait just a minute! Because the winter weather was milder, there was an uptick in deaths due to cold snaps! So if it gets warmer, there are more deaths. And if the winters get milder, there are more deaths. By gawdamighty! It IS worse than we thought!!!!!! Warmer weather in the Summer time results in more deaths in the Winter!!!! We must ask the world for a relocation grant! The Mediterranean area would be suitable.
“Furthermore, we saw that even though the winters have become milder, extremely cold periods occurred more often, which also contributed to a small increase in mortality during the winter.”
Re: humor by Jimbo at 11:12am today —
I laughed and laughed, then, went to the website (I suspected a scam to get contributions for shipping costs and wondered where that money actually would end up…) and… waddaya know:
“The video is made by SAIH – The Norwegian Students’ and Academics’ International Assistance Fund Facebook)(www.saih.no). With the cooperation of Operation Day’s Work (www.od.no). With funding from The Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) and The Norwegian Children and Youth Council (LNU).”
Source: http://www.africafornorway.no/
This is a spoof! THANK YOU FOR THE LAUGH, Jimbo — great fun. (Great music even though it was inane.)
*****************************
Game, set, and match, Pamela Gray! (at 10:04am)
****************************
Ken — you raise a good point at 7:37am today. Sweden adopted government-controlled (both prices and services provided) medicine in 1955. At first, doctors were allowed to maintain a private practice alongside their government duties. By the 1970’s, almost all private healthcare had disappeared and by the 1980’s virtually none existed in Sweden; doctors were now employees of the state.
Quality of care, especially surgical, deteriorated as rationing was strictly applied to control costs. “… by 2003, only about 50% of patients received care within three months of being diagnosed,… . As of 2009, waiting lists continued to be a significant problem. According to the Swedish government,
(from nationalcenter.org)
Source for above info. about Swedish socialist medicine: http://fall09hpm101sweden.providence.wikispaces.net/History+and+Origins+of+Swedens+Health+Care+System
(yes, it is that rickety wiki thing (ugh) however, there were many links in that article to follow to verify the information given)
Thus, Ken, you have pointed out yet another flaw in the above junk science study: the extent to which Socialist government regulation is a significantly contributing cause of deaths in Sweden.
Mortality in Sweden is higher winter than summer.
Mars month 2012 8 753 died, in June only 6 790.
Site only in Swedish:
http://www.scb.se/Pages/Article.aspx?id=352658
Picture of graph with 2012 death toll month per month, yellow women, blue men, left death toll, right median age.
http://www.scb.se/Grupp/Artiklar/Befolkning/Hogre-risk-att-man-dor-nara-makans-bortgang/Antal-avlidna-per-manad-kon-och-medianalder-vid-dodsfallet-2012.png
More people die in winter than in summer here in Sweden.
Most Swedes love warm summers.
This has, of course, been noticed by the 2nd most visited Scandinavian blog, the/link:
http://www.klimatupplysningen.se/2013/10/24/klimatet-dodar-aven-i-sverige/
where Lena Krantz writes – below in a google-translation version, not correctly edited. Might be of somewhat interest:
”
Sometimes, the research studies that are more or less incomprehensible , in all cases without response to a series of questions. One such study is ” Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm , Sweden ‘ published in Nature . It’s Daniel Oudin Åström, Bertil Forsberg , Kristie L. Ebi and Joacim Rocklöv the Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, who conducted the study .
If I have understood correctly , from Umeå University’s press release , the researchers compared temperature data for the period 1980-2009 to the period 1900-1929 to produce the unusually warm and unusually cold temperatures in the county. They have concluded that about 300 people more died during the period 1980-2009 due to heat waves , which in turn linked to climate change disturbances . Some also died due to cold , also linked to climate change disturbances .
One of the researchers , Daniel Oudin Åström, interviewed in the press release says, adding that the Swedes have not yet changed attitude and willingness to protect themselves from extreme temperatures. Older people , for example, increased use of air conditioning in their homes in order to cope better during heat waves .
I sent an email with a series of questions to Daniel late last Wednesday night and expected course no reply until at least today , Thursday . But he said that evening .
Here are the questions and answers that I have not had time to analyze than :
How have you come to the conclusion that 300 more died during 1980-2009 ? More than that , the period 1900-1929 ?
DOA : We find that about 300 people have died prematurely because of more frequent heat waves during the period 1980 to 2009 compared with the period 1900-1929 . We used the two percent warmest and coldest days during the period 1900-1929 and used these temperatures to calculate how many times these temperatures were exceeded during the period 1980-2009 . Temperature Extremes occurred 220 times during the period 1900 to 1929 , for both heating and cooling (based on the two percent highest and lowest temperatures ) . We figured since the relative risk of dying during a heat wave / cold snap (for the period 1980-2009 ) and how many on average die a summer / winter . Leading to the number of premature deaths was ( using heat as an example) :
The number of additional heat extremes ( 381-220 ) * 0046 ( percentage increase in mortality during heat waves ) * average mortality per day in summer ( 40 ) 161 * 0046 * 40 ≈ 300
How have you determined that the reason that a person has died is because of the heat or cold ?
DOA : Unfortunately, we have not had access to mortality . What we did was we used the daily number of deaths and calculated the relative risk of dying during a heat wave compared to a normal summer day, only during the period 1980-2009 . We found that on days defined as heatwaves died , 4.6% more than on normal days . In our material , we can not see that mortality decreases immediately after a heat wave or cold spell , that so-called ” harvesting” , meaning that it is assumed that there are people who are so poor that they would die in the near future anyway dying during a heat wave .
If you compared the number of deaths due to heat stroke as between periods how do you know that the cause of death is correctly described on the death certificate ? Can not the doctors’ values have changed a lot ?
DOA : I am convinced that doctors definitions changed over time, but as I described above , we use only the death data for the period 1980-2009 .
Have you put the UHI effect in the calculations ?
DOA : Yes we did. We used two different temperature ranges , one that adjusted for UHI and one that has not. I know this is not revealed in the press release. We find here that even more heat waves occurring during the most recent period, 481 st, which contributes to even more premature deaths. Unlike the unadjusted data so we can see a decrease in cold extremes during the recent period compared to 1900-1929 , which means we get a reduction in mortality during the winter because of less frequent cold extremes. This emerged not in the press release , but is available in the article.
How have you associated extreme cold to climate change? (CO2 has a warming effect only) .
DOA : We find an increase in the number of cold extremes , this despite the winter temperatures are higher in the later period . It is in line with the IPCC , even if the temperatures increases , more extremes occur. The tails of the temperature distributions in which the extremes present themselves can become thicker. Another thing worth pointing out is that nowhere in the article discusses what caused the warmer temperatures and more frequent heat waves . We take no than one discussion about it is natural climate change or climate change due to human influences , or a combination of these. We note only , based on measured observations, the average temperature has risen in both summer and winter , and that it has become more heat and cold extremes.
Why have you chosen just the years 1900-1929 as a comparison , 1920-1949 was well suited better? Then, it’s too hot in Stockholm but it was not due to climate change.
DOA : This is a very relevant question . We wanted to compare the beginning of the last century and this would be seen more in the article. We used other terms to validate the method of attribution mortality to climate change. We figured out the same thing for the periods 1910-1939 , 1920-1949 … 1950-1979 . These additional calculations would of course included in the study. We found that the increase in heat extremes ranged from about 120 to 220 , which is consistent across all examined trettioårsintervall during the 1900s resulted in more premature deaths due to more frequent heat waves. Existing thermal extremes , we found that these both increased and decreased . Which depending on the scenario leading to either increased or decreased mortality .
What have you got for the results if you had compared the number of deaths during the highest temperature in the 1930s with the highest recorded during the investigation ?
DOA : Our värmeböljevariabel was either a värmeböljedag or not . We did not take account of the high temperatures , the specific day, this will be covered in a section on limitations of our study . However, previous research shows that the risk increases with increased intensity of extreme heat but not to cold. This makes our method probably underestimates the number of dead . Our method led to about 200 to 350 premature deaths as we took in the 1930s in the calculations.
Daniel thought it was relevant issues and would welcome more . I think I have a few more myself but it may also have you ?
”
Go figure, please… 😉
Cheers from Sweden
/TJ
Thojak (at 12:21pm today) —GREAT POST. Thank you for making the effort to put that into English for us. “DOA” (common usage in America: “Dead On Arrival”) — perfect.
What a huge bunch of hot air! (THAT is where all the heat has gone) The key quote for me:
Wow! This researcher apparently can twist methods into all kinds of shapes. I would bet most men wish their wives were this limber!!!!
Why should they change their attitudes? Maybe their attitude is just right. Not too hot, not too cold.
Since 1976 Swedish homes to have triple glazed windows by code.
Some Swedes are known for steaming themselves in saunas then jumping into frigid, icy waters.
Many Swedish mums (by custom) deliberately put their babies in cots outside in sub-zero temperatures while they have a hot coffee in a restaurant or other establishment.
I think they have the right attitude to extreme temperatures. Some Norsemen made raiding expeditions to Spain and North Africa. (Many, many souls were lost as they dropped like flies. / sarc.)
http://history.howstuffworks.com/european-history/norsemen.htm
Others have commented the study, and found it at least strange.
I would just comment on the death figures of 1500 during 30 years.
10 million peoble of which 1% die every year mean 3 million would anyway die in 30 years, so the 1500 dead of heat is less than the standardeviation, if the deaths are poisson distributed.
The answer to Antony’s question is contained in
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/nclimate2022-s1.pdf
Supplemental Table 1
It appears that the Relative Risk was found for ALL MORTALITY against time (“extreme days” only).
The bottom charts gives the relative risks involved.
The HIGHEST RR found for any lag against any temperature (observed or adjusted) is 1.06….in other words, Non Existent.
The dangerous MAXIMUM temperature in 1980-2009 was almost 80 degrees F (26 C) — which would be considered a nice cool day in St Thomas, USVI.
Gareth Phillips says:
October 24, 2013 at 1:37 am
Lord I could cringe. We on the warmist side do our best to spread the word that there is a problem in how we treat our environment and that humans are effecting climate change, and we are continually undermined by idiotic studies like this.
No Gareth, you’re undermined by the complete lack of evidence to support your stupid theory.
Oh, and Gareth: it’s “affecting,” not effecting.
Fred the Stat-guy and Ted — Isn’t there some rule of thumb logical rule about given enough time one will always have new highs and new lows? Records are always set.. etc?
So far, I have found no causal link or attempt to find any causal link between temperature and mortality in the study at all.
“Fun with statistics packages” I think.
Kip,
Here is a correlation between T and CO2.
More CO2 = Good!
Of course they are correct! It’s a simple thing to work out. If you go from the 65 to 78 F highs of the ’70’s when I visited Stockholm as a teenager, to the (horrible, oh GOSH!) 72 to 82 F highs currently, you end up consuming more MEAD and AQUA VITE to compensate for this horrible stress. 10 to 20 years of this, and the overall mortality (from drunk driving, cirrhosis of the liver, other alcohol related diseases) goes up and up and up! And the root cause is GOREBULL WARMING. Get with the equation people!
LeeHarvey says:
October 24, 2013 at 5:46 am
Well actually Stockholm has a world class cooling infrastructure, we simply use water, cold water is there in plenty, to cool buildings, not all of them, but all newly built and a great many refurbished older buildings.
I seem to remember that the archeological evidence of Greenland’s warm period caused a lot of deaths too…right? Right? Bueller? Ferris Bueller?
Janice Moore says:
October 24, 2013 at 12:32 pm
Txs Janice. 😀
Brgds/TJ
You’re welcome, T. J.. #(:))
@ Max, Son of Hugo (2:31pm) and Pamela Gray (2:55pm) – LOL.
” Janice Moore says:
October 24, 2013 at 12:32 pm”
Wholly correct! Here in Sweden E V E R Y T H I N G is ‘correct’ – providing total compliance to/with the elites’ sayings/doings – You know, Sweden ‘has’ (hah!) to be leading the rest-of-the-world…
Cheers!
/TJ
Jimbo says:
October 24, 2013 at 1:28 pm
I invite you to a multi-pleasure-visit here on the Bestcoast of Sweden (&, of course all..) including ‘hands-on’ lobster-fishing and more, more, and more… Just to expand parts of info & reality…
My mobile # is: (+46) (0)766 191 033
e-mail; tjthomasj@gmail.com
‘Just do it’… ?
Cheers!
/TJ
I’m happy to see all the Swedish folks commenting here.
My wife is 100% Swedish. Blonde, of course! ☺
Thanks for the affirmation, T. J.. Well, just to say something good about the Swedes (and I sense that there is a bit of a need for that, as shown by Haken B’s post at 2:54pm assuring us that Swedish people DO know how to cool their buildings), they have a great sense of humor!
Two pieces of data (not simulated):
1. A big Swede, injured, was carried about 15 weary miles into town by his fellow Washington State, USA lumberjacks (including my grandpa). The next day, the doctor, testing the Swede’s eyesight, said, “Look out the window at the lake, what can you see?” The Swede peered out the window, staring hard.
“I see a big log ……. ent on deht log ees a mosquito….. ent he ees yawning.” (I can still hear my grandpa telling that one, chuckling heartily EVERY time.)
2. A Swedish missionary home on furlough from some very hot region, southwest India, I think, was asked by his friends, “How can you stand the heat there, man? It’s 104 (F) in the shade!”
“Well,” he smiled, “we don’t always have to stay in the shade, do we?”
A fine sense of humor……… say…….. so, THAT’S why you guys gave the Nobel Peace Prize to Bore and to Dope. LOL, “pees” (phonetically) means “jerk” in Swedish. Got it! Heh.
Maybe it’s just some sort of syndrome.
It’s interesting that I sometimes get the message from AGW proponents that high levels of “natural” CO2 causes fuzzy feeling good warming but even a little bit of anthropogenic CO2 causes evil deadly warming. How do the different isotopes of CO2 know who or what to grow or kill? Have we, in our ignorance, created a malevolent sentient CO2 isotope? By gawd, I should write for the National Inquirer.
How on Earth can someone right a paper like this? The 300 (unclear causes) deaths in Stockholm in 30 years are trumpeted as an effect of global warming! This is simply embarrassing.
Things to consider.
Researcher bias, immigration, UHI, statistically insignificant, lifestyle changes, cool comparison period, more elderly people more susceptible to heat, alcoholics drowning after a dip, etc.
Swedes are Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens are tropical animals originally from tropical Africa. Or if you like East Africa or southern Africa (all hot, hot, hot). Are these researchers telling me that Swedes have now lost the ability to sweat? Fan themselves with a book? Go outside the house? Take a cold shower? Drink cold juices? I live in a very hot country so I know this study is full of BULLSHIT. I actually left my house about an hour ago due to the heat in my bedroom. I took a drive to cool down and get away from my folks. Right now 2 fans are blowing at me furiously and this is in the evening. I know, Swedes won’t know what a fan is. It is a rare and exciting thing.
Hey dbstealey I had TWO blond Swedish chicks in my ‘pad’ at the same time! 🙂 Many, many years ago though. 🙁 Ahhhhhhh, those were the days. I was a kingpin man. I have also had a few ‘polite meetings’ with a few Danish and Norwegians babes too.
Jimbo says:
October 24, 2013 at 4:21 pm
“How on Earth can someone right a paper like this? …….”
===============
You meant “write” right ?
Now please continue with your escapades, we are hanging on every word.
How do you compare the experimental fact that some person (A) died during some observed phenomenon (Q) with the possibility that (A) might die in the absence of (Q) ??
This is like having 100% QA testing of matches, as a final step in the manufacture of matches, to guarantee that they absolutely will light when you strike them.
Research studies on the effectiveness of the death penalty, in curbing violent crime, invariably exclude from the study sample population, any person who has actually been administered the death penalty. Go figure ?
Amazing, they pick the WARMEST part of the second half of the 20th century to compare to the COOLEST part of the first half of the 20th. Anyone else wondering why they didn’t include the 1930’s in this study?!?!?!
“””””…..Paul in Sweden says:
October 24, 2013 at 9:58 am
Living outside of Gothenburg I find it incredulous that there can be a heat related death here in Sweden outside of a sauna. …..”””””
Maybe incredible; but certainly not incredulous !
Meanwhile across the border, Finland…
http://oi40.tinypic.com/2a7sduq.jpg
The average annual temperature is around 0°C. It’s intuitively difficult to see how a slight creepage towards the optimal ~12°C, away from the large mortality concentration, could have increased deaths. A 5% of population dies of cold around here, playing mannian games with the subject seems doubly questionable.
And to think that this study comes from the home of the wonderful Volvo automobile.
http://www.volvocars.com/us/Pages/default.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Volvo+Core_Desktop&utm_term=volvo?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Volvo%20Core_Desktop&utm_term=volvo
No wonder Volvo is now a Chinese owned company.
The Chinese are not buying into the AGW intellectual dead end. Their economy and society is still progressing towards something good. At least Volvo can have a chance to survive the madness in the West
Hey, Don Juan Jimbo, he isn’t female, but at 3:28pm today, T. J. Thomas gave you a lovely invitation to visit him in Sweden. You always ignore me, but I sure hope you at least respond to T. J..
No, I’m not your mother in disguise, heh. JUST WANTED TO BE SURE YOU KNEW of his generous offer of hospitality.
@ T.J. — don’t feel too badly if Jimbo ignores you — it’s happened before on WUWT. For instance, about 2 months ago, a well-known English commenter invited another well-known English commenter to visit his beautiful part of Cornwall, not far from the invitee’s home. The invitee never even said, “Thanks, I’ll think about it.” Just to let you know that you would not be the only one whose invitation has been ignored.
Like so many other here, I’m calling this total bollocks.
I’ve spent many a pleasant, warm, summer day in Stockholm without seeing people keeling over on the streets. I simply can’t believe that even a degree or two more (bringing the temperatures a teeny bit closer to the summer temperatures here in Brisbane) would change that picture.
“Swedes have not changed their attitude and willingness to protect themselves against extreme temperatures.”
I bet they still protect themselves against the extremely low temperatures of those freezing Swedish winters! Never heard of a heat related death, but drunks freezing to death used to be a regular occurrence.
If people die of heat in Stockholm, it’s probably because they get a heart attack from the surprisingly nice weather 😉
Discussion this morning on the BBC about the fuel price problems.
On average winter cold results in 24000 excess death in the winter months in the UK. That puts a possible 300 in some perspective.
Janice Moore says:
October 24, 2013 at 3:38 pm
Janice, correction; the Nobel Peace Prize is being awarded by the Norwegian Nobel Committe and there have been rather loud protests about their choices, especially IPCC & mr Gore plus, not least, mr (N)Obama.
As to the herein namned ‘paper’ it’s rather ‘funny’, that the public service & the MSM hardly even mention this. And this is quite pequliar as they are [‘normally’] faster than the BBC/Guardian/NYT… to report about all alarmist ‘reports’ on climate. I lived for many years in Germany (Hamburg) and we were able to watch DDR-TV, totally propaganda á la mr Goebbels. Swedish P.S./MSM are sometimes/often even worse than the former DDR:ers were in terms of climate alarmism.
Cheers
/TJ
Look, there is a bigger picture here that the enemy is counting on everyone missing by debating the minutiae of these ridiculous claims. What is it? It is the most important consequence of their move to using “Extreme Weather” as their official propaganda.
The enemy, and that is the worldwide Socialist left wearing green shirts, will proceed to blame every extra death on the “deniers”. Understand? Deaths that enemy themselves, the worldwide Socialist left, caused in the first place. As they shut down heavyweight energy plants like coal, gas and nuke, blow insane amounts of money on frauds like solar and wind, make oil insanely expensive driving up all energy prices, causing rolling blackouts, forcing people to choose between utility bills and food, people will die, and are already dying. When old people and kids die in the freezing winters as we have seen, and some die in the summers, they will all be attributed to anyone except the perps themselves, the worldwide Socialist left. They will kill them and then point the finger at us.
There are many on our side who still refuse to even name the enemy let alone fight them properly, and that is what they are counting on. Some of our great and fine debaters will argue some minute details of the wacky theories they put forth, yet the enemy will press on and make their moves regardless of how well our debaters present themselves even if they win a few fights here and there. They’re in it for keeps and have no concern for the consequences, those that die will be sacrifices to their green religion, and then they will also be exploited as people “the deniers killed”.
To be on the left means never having to be held accountable. Scapegoating is one of the oldest strategies going and is useful for corralling the sheeple into line, witness Goebbels propaganda with Jews, and Stalin using famine as cover for his genocides. We’ve already been here, no need to relearn anything. It just takes the courage to recognize the enemy, call them by name, and then beat them senseless with every thing you’ve got. Or, we can keep making believe there is some academic scientific exercise at work here and not worldwide green Malthusianism.
Yes, there certainly are some of the enemy who are merely naive or stupid, but they are not the ones we should be wasting too much time on.
Today’s printed Daily Telegraph also quotes the UK excess winter deaths at 24,000.
I doubt if it’s very diferent in Sweden.
This pseudo-science is yet more offensive rubbish. Will there ever be an end to it?
Chris
Has anyone researched extreme cold weather deaths in Jakarta (due to global warming, there are more cold snaps now)?
Hi Anthony,
Winter Mortality is far greater than Summer Mortality across Europe (and elsewhere).
See Figure 3 of the following paper. Relative Excess Winter Mortality in Sweden is about 0.10 or ~10%.
Winter Excess Mortality: A Comparison
between Norway and England plus Wales
http://ageing.oxfordjournals.org/content/25/5/343.full.pdf
See Figure 3 – Relative Excess Winter Mortality in Sweden is about 0.10 or ~10%.
Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors
http://jech.bmj.com/content/57/10/784.full
Does not include Sweden.
Regards, Allan
This report is total rubbish.
Stockholm’s population is growing including the average life expectancy of it’s citizens and it’s higher than the average lif expectancy figures for the total of Sweden, in 2012:
Average life expectancy, men stockholm: 79.8 Sweden 79.5
Average life expectancy, women Stockholm 83.9 Sweden 83.4
Besides the fact that the entire report is total rubbish, the scientists also selected the wrong town.
They are not scientists, they are idiots.
Sorry, forgot to post the link: http://www.stockholmannualreport.se/en/annual-accounts/stockholmers/
@Håkan B –
I don’t doubt it. …which is why I had to laugh at the claim in the original paper, saying that Stockholm lacked capacity for cooling.
Well I thought I’d give it ten minutes.
Crude death rate troughed in Sweden about 1955 at 9.8/1000 with a male life expectancy at birth of 67.9 it rose to 10.2 by 1970 where it’s been fairly flat ever since. male life expectancy at birth is now 79.8 while the population has increased from 7.2 m to 9.4m . Find 1500 extra heat deaths against that background? Horse puckey pure and simple.
Hi again Anthony,
Winter Mortality is greater than Summer Mortality across Europe (and elsewhere).
I suggest the Umea University study is entirely incorrect because the number of reduced deaths due to warmer winters in Northern Europe will outnumber the number of deaths due to cooler summers.
This reality is reflected in positive numbers for Relative Excess Winter Mortality (“Winter Mortality” also described as Coefficient of Seasonal Variation in Mortality or CSVM), which measures the increased incidence (in the Northern Hemisphere) of mortality from December to March inclusive versus the rest of the year.
Winter Mortality in Sweden is about +0.10 or ~10%, similar to Norway, Finland, Germany, Netherlands etc., and these are comparatively low numbers.
Much higher Winter Mortality occurs in the UK, Ireland, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. This may seem to be counter-intuitive because these countries area warmer.
However, I suggest that countries that adapt well to winter have lower Winter Mortality Rates that countries that do not.
I further suggest that as the climate cools, which I think it will in the near future, we can expect to see increased suffering and death in Europe and elsewhere, in part because many countries have severely damaged their energy systems due to the foolish adoption of wind and solar power schemes that are both costly and ineffective.
This bleak probability reflects, in my opinion, an egregious error in government climate and energy policy that will cost many lives.
The environmental movement, which has promoted this “green energy” debacle, should be held primarily responsible for this unfolding tragedy.
Hope I am wrong.
Regards, Allan
*******************
Background Information:
Winter Mortality (December to March inclusive) is greater than Summer Mortality across Europe (and elsewhere).
See Figure 3 of the following paper. Relative Excess Winter Mortality in Sweden is about 0.10 or ~10%.
Winter Excess Mortality: A Comparison
between Norway and England plus Wales
http://ageing.oxfordjournals.org/content/25/5/343.full.pdf
See Figure 3 – Relative Excess Winter Mortality in Sweden is about 0.10 or ~10%.
“Bivariate analyses showed that the excess winter mortality (December-March) in England and Wales was nearly twice as high in old as in middle-aged people, and also markedly higher than in Norway, while the association between excess winter deaths and influenza was of a similar magnitude.”
Some of this reality is related to the following observation:
“Using data from 20 Western European countries, a highly significant positive correlation (R = 0.71, p < 0.001) was found between total mortality rates for the elderly (65 years and over) and relative excess winter mortality.”
Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors
http://jech.bmj.com/content/57/10/784.full
This study does not include Sweden.
Table 1 – Coefficient of seasonal variation in mortality (CSVM) in EU-14 (mean, 1988–97)
CSVM 95% CI
Austria 0.14 (0.12 to 0.16)
Belgium 0.13 (0.09 to 0.17)
Denmark 0.12 (0.10 to 0.14)
Finland 0.10 (0.07 to 0.13)
France 0.13 (0.11 to 0.15)
Germany 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13)
Greece 0.18 (0.15 to 0.21)
Ireland 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24)
Italy 0.16 (0.14 to 0.18)
Luxembourg 0.12 (0.08 to 0.16)
Netherlands 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13)
Portugal 0.28 (0.25 to 0.31)
Spain 0.21 (0.19 to 0.23)
UK 0.18 (0.16 to 0.20)
Mean 0.16 (0.14 to 0.18)
******************
LOL, thanks! Actually I like the word ‘right’ better. Can you ‘right’ this paper? 🙂
Well, Jimbo, lol, gotta admire your persevering, “I am a rock, I am an island,” self-reliance. Kind of a bummer for T.J. (yesterday at 3:28pm), though. Sigh.
**********
@ T. J. (re: 1:19am today) Thank you! LOL, well, us (yeah, only 1/8, but, still… heh) Norwegians are witty, indeed — “piz” is ancient Norwegian word for “jerk.” The years the “Peace Prize” went to a truly worthy recipient, the committee was taken over by some Swedish guys in disguise who came over and didn’t know what the deal was (JUST KIDDING). #(:))
Allan MacRae says:
October 25, 2013 at 8:53 am
“However, I suggest that countries that adapt well to winter have lower Winter Mortality Rates that countries that do not.”
Spot on there, swedish, and scandiavian, standards for insulation and heating are far ahead of what’s standard in continental europe and britain. Nothing strange with that really, it’s just a matter of adaption and payoff, do you need heating for six months or maybe just two or three, how worse will it be, -5,-10 or -30 or even -40. Sweden as an example stretches for more than 1600 km from south to north, 1600 km from southern Sweden ends up in southern Italy , so comparisions among european countrys are quite ricicoulus.
Ed Zuiderwijk says: October 25, 2013 at 1:13 am
Discussion this morning on the BBC about the fuel price problems.
On average winter cold results in 24000 excess death in the winter months in the UK. That puts a possible 300 in some perspective.
************
Small correction
Ed, 24,000 is the 2011-2012 Excess Winter Deaths for England and Wales only, down 8% from the previous year. Separate stats are kept for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Excess Winter Deaths in England and Wales in 1950-51 totalled about 100,000 – so some progress has been made.
Excess Winter Mortality rates are typically much lower in colder Scandinavian countries, and higher in some warmer countries in Southern Europe like Spain and Portugal.
It is appropriate to pause for a while, and recognize that these were all real people, who “loved and were loved”.
Regards, Allan MacRae
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_288362.pdf
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/theme/vital-events/deaths/winter-mortality/
http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp32.htm
The Old Observatory in Stockholm (built in the mid-1700’s) is a perfect candidate for the Urban Heat Island effect, I’d say. The city has expanded around it (the big new central City Library opening nearby in the late 1920’s, for instance) and road traffic has increased.
Deaths by “heat waves” is a minimal problem in Sweden, compared to deaths from cold temperatures! Not too uncommon is eg heart attacks induced by shovelling snow. Deaths from fires also increase during winter time because people are careless with candles. Road accidents increase due to icy roads. People tend to stay more indoors, with increases deaths from infectious diseases which are easier to pick up in confined spaces. And so on. (But I don’t think many actually *freeze* to death.)
This “study” is rubbish. Did they make any attempt at all to study deaths from cold weather?
–Ahrvid
(Stockholm, Sweden)
Great to see Swedish readers commenting here, and providing useful data. It all reinforces the notion that this “study” is hardly worth using in the smallest room.
On the face of it, the two silliest things when I read it are the very small numbers of “extra deaths” (without a scrap of evidence about why they died) and the ludicrous notion that temperatures which occur for a few days a year, that are not in the least bit remarkable over much of the inhabited world, could be killing people.
Where I live it gets up to the low 40s (C) in summer. Yet, we have the longest life expectancy in the country. The Stockholm maxima are just a pleasant Spring day to us. Go figure.
I hope this post of Anthony’s inspires Swedish readers to take down this load of baloney on blogs, in the media, and by any other means that they can find.
johanna says:
October 25, 2013 at 7:59 pm
Pleased to notice your appreciation of us ‘Scandinavians’ [Swedes] participating in commenting here. 😀
You can be assured, that we are quite a number reading/following, however not always commenting, WUWT and, of course, other sites with interesting info & discussions on the CAGW-topic. This mostly cuz the infos & ‘education’ via the ‘official channels’ are so biased and propagandistic it’s hard to believe could happen in a so called modern society. Increasing number of persons now (maybe thanks to the propaganda..?) look for other sources of information, predominally international blogs and websites – big thanks to Internet!
Cheers
/TJ
Allan MacRae says:
October 25, 2013 at 8:53 am
“Hi again Anthony,
Winter Mortality is greater than Summer Mortality across Europe (and elsewhere)…..”
I couldn’t agree more. Not only is this whole catastrophic corruption of science laughably wrong, it is completely immoral. It is a major reason why I no longer vote Conservative (I now vote UKIP). Miliband, Cameron and Clegg should be ashamed of themselves. At least Cameron is now talking about “rolling back green taxes”, so maybe there is a glimmer of hope. But I’m not holding my breath. At the very least Cameron will have to stop subsidising wind power and also scrap the Climate Change Bill, which is a trillion pound suicide note.
As I’m getting on in years, it may be that I will never vote Conservative again.
Chris
The methodology is based on counting “temperature extremes” which occur when the moving daily average exceed the 98% percentiles. So there’s a built-in presumption that temperature only affects mortality about 2% of time (other literature suggests something closer to 100%). They throw away about 98% of information about the relation.
Another assumption is that all changes in temperature extremes are caused by “climate change”. A surprising unreported conclusion is that climate change was clearly strongest in the 1940s.
The Epidemiology paper, table 2 contains counts of temperature extremes per decade calculated this way. The highest count is from 1940-1949, total 307 temperature extremes (91 heat, 216 cold). This decade happened to be excluded from the Nature analysis. 2000-2009 had only 136 (126+10) extremes, about a third. While the AGW signal has supposedly emerged in the last few decades, the number has generally declined. The two least extreme decades of the last half century were 1990-1999 and 2000-2009.
Sensitivity test: consider they had started their reference period from 1940 (after all they picked a seemingly arbitrary slice of the available data instead of using it all). If I counted right, the numbers become 1940-1969: 585 extremes and 1980-2009: 487 extremes. The result flips over and climate change saved lives.
maybe sign this thead up for the most idiotic one on www. its sad how many stupid people there are. one of my favorite is “1, 06, in other words non existing” can you please give me 6% of all your money for the rest of your life since its dosent exist.
there are so many moroons here: reading it was fun at first, but then it just make me sad.
polarbeer says NONSENSE at: October 28, 2013 at 1:07 pm.
Your post suggests that you are a troll, or you are otherwise incapable of intelligent comment.
Go back to drinking your beer.
I havent really read the study, but do they just count Deaths in numbers and not correlated to the number of people actually living in the region at the given years? In 1925 there was around 750000 people living in the Stockholm area. In the year 2010 that number is around 2000000 ppl. Also the amount of elderly people have increased a lot. Not having any numbers on that I can only say that the birthrate in Sweden is a problem and the population as a whole is getting older. People of old age tend to be more sensitive to temperature, hot OR Cold.
Excuse me in advance if I am being stupid and this is totally irrelevant or has already been taken into consideration.
Pär Brandt says:
October 29, 2013 at 5:17 pm
“Excuse me in advance if I am being stupid and this is totally irrelevant or has already been taken into consideration.”
Looking at the raw code from: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/nclimate2022-s1.pdf
Mortality variables:
Nday, (the number of daily deaths occurring in the total population)
Nday_65 (the number of daily deaths occurring in the above 65 population)
Code…..
To analyse the effect of temperature extremes on mortality the following code in R were used
#Analysis of temperature extremes per decade:
RR <- glm (N_dayi ~ as.factor(wday) + as.factor(hday)+ ns(trend,df=120) +
cw_lag025:as.factor(decade) + hw_lag01:as.factor(decade),
data=analys, family=quasipoisson)
#Analysis of temperature extremes total period 1980-2009:
RR <- glm (N_dayi ~ as.factor(wday) + as.factor(hday)+ ns(trend,df=120) +
cw_lag025+ hw_lag01,data=analys,family=quasipoisson)
#Analysis of temperature extremes year by year 1980-2009:
RR 65 have been subtracted from the total (1-2)
So, we can therefore assume that it’s been assumed, that death due to heat stress is linear between age zero and age 65.
I’m no expert in this area but that does appear to be a rather bold assumption, and if it’s not, there appears to be no reference to support it.
So, if you’re stupid, then so are we both.