The Week That Was: 2013-10-05 (October 5, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: The future is certain, only the past is unpredictable. Polish saying from Soviet times [H/t Tom Quirk]
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Number of the Week: 30
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NIPCC Co-Editors Fred Singer and Bob Carter will be making a presentation on Climate Change Reconsidered: Physical Science at 10 am on October 8 at the Ayn Rand Institute in Irvine, California. On Oct 10 at 11 am, they will appear on the Roger Hedgecock show in San Diego. On Friday morning, Oct 11, they will be making a presentation at Chapman University. Details are not yet available. If you have an interest in attending any of these events, please contact Ken@SEPP.org and he will provide details as he receives them.
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
IPCC: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group I (WGI), providing an assessment of the of the physical science: Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment. The report states that it has been accepted by WGI, but not approved in detail. The publically available report also carries the strange statement: “Confidential – This document is being made available in preparation of WGI-12 only and should not be cited, quoted, or distributed.” If the IPCC wishes it to be confidential, why does it place it on the web? The final, final report is expected out in January 2014. Given the history of the IPCC, we may see some major changes.
Also, the final version of the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is not yet available, making a focused comparison between the IPCC (SPM) and the Summary for Policymakers by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) somewhat premature.
The IPCC reports have been intensely analyzed by a number of IPCC followers, with comments posted on various blogs as well as in the traditional press. These comments will provide the bulk of this issue of TWTW.
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Extreme Weather Events: First, the good news, at least for now. Roger Pielke Jr. reports that the critical chapter in AR5 does not support claims of more extreme weather events. He presents a list of statements he compiled from the key Chapter 2 of AR5. Pielke concludes: “Of course, I have no doubts that claims will still be made associating floods, drought, hurricanes and tornadoes with human-caused climate change — Zombie science — but I am declaring victory in this debate.”
The term Zombie Science may be less than complementary, but is appropriate for those who continue to reiterate future disasters from global warming without providing physical evidence of human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing dangerous global warming or that global warming will increase the intensity of extreme weather events. Since some politicians and governments have invested so heavily on proclaiming humans are causing extreme weather events, it will be interesting if this section survives the final revision. The SPM indicates that it may not.
No doubt, the EPA will use the statement that AR5 should not be cited, quoted, or distributed as grounds for rejecting its use in the upcoming public hearings on its new rules for power plants which embody a huge, questionable danger from human caused global warming. Please see links under IPCC report.
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IPCC Games: Almost immediately after the public distribution of AR5 by the IPCC, Steve McIntyre posted a clear example of why the IPCC cannot be trusted to maintain consistency from one draft to another draft, or explain why changes were made. The Second Order Draft, which went expert reviewers, contained a graph that clearly showed the discrepancies between projections of temperatures in prior IPCC assessment reports and observed temperatures. The observed surface temperatures were, correctly, below the projected envelope of temperatures from earlier reports. In the current AR5, the observed temperatures are within the projected envelope by the models.
Going through the messy new graph, McIntyre shows how, after expert review, the IPCC reconstructed the earlier projections to shift the envelope downward relative to the observations, thus incorporating the observations within the re-interpreted projections. McIntyre compares this to the classic shell game of picking under which shell the pea is hiding. It is a further example of the IPCC’s continued abuse of the peer review system and how the IPCC changes the past. Please see link under Climategate Continued.
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IPCC Version of Climate History: Writing in Watts Up With That?, geologist Don Easterbrook states: “When compared to the also recently published NIPCC (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change) 1000+-page volume of data on climate change with thousands of peer-reviewed references, the inescapable conclusion is that the IPCC report must be considered the grossest misrepresentation of data ever published.”
A key IPCC statement is that: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.” Easterbrook compares this statement with the temperature data for the 10 years, the last 500 years, the last 2000 years, the last 10,000 years, and the last 15,000 years. Easterbrook finds that more intense warming “has occurred many times in the past centuries and millennia.” Easterbrook goes on to expose other factually challenged statements in the AR5. Please see link under Climategate Continued.
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An Elephant in the Room: Writing in the Mail, UK, David Rose reports that, on September 27, he attended an IPCC press conference in Stockholm on the new SPM. He asked: “why the climate computer models failed to predict the continuing 17 year pause in global warming – and how much longer would this have to last before the IPCC thought the models might be wrong?”
Rose reports that Michel Jarraud, the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, one of the two parent organizations of the IPCC replied: “Your question is what I would call ill posed from a scientific point of view. The models are proving more and more remarkable at predicting the long-term trend.”
According to Rose, Thomas Stocker, co-chair of WGI, added “if it lasted another 20 years, ‘that would not be expected’, and that climate trends should not be considered in periods of less than 30 years.” The leadership of the IPCC refuses to clutter their beautiful models and theory with messy data. See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy
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The Second Elephant in the Room: The IPCC ignores the second, larger elephant in the room. Over 33 years of satellite data that are compiled by two independent groups and separately supported by four sets of balloon data. These temperature data are comprehensive globally, except at the poles. They show a pronounced warming over the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere, little or no warming over the Tropics or the Southern Hemisphere and a cooling around Antarctica. The global warming models are inconsistent with these data. For some reason, one-third global warming does not sound compelling.
Instead of addressing these inconsistencies, the IPCC glosses over them. The SPM states: “It is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the mid-20th century. More complete observations allow greater confidence in estimates of tropospheric temperature changes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere than elsewhere. There is medium confidence in the rate of warming and its vertical structure in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical troposphere and low confidence elsewhere.”
In other words, the IPCC has great confidence in the part of the dataset that supports its theories and models, and no confidence in the part that does not. Such is the selective science of the IPCC.
By comparison, in its Summary for Policymakers, the NIPCC report specifically discusses the lack of a hot spot over the Tropics and the failure of the atmosphere above Antarctic to warm, as suggested by the models and greenhouse theory. Further, NIPCC suggests that the pronounced warming of the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere may be due to northerly transport of heat by the atmosphere and oceans and that this transport may be driven by changes in the Sun’s magnetic activity, which the IPCC report does not consider. The links can be found under NIPCC Report, IPCC Report, Questioning the Orthodoxy, and Models v. Observations.
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Other Posts: There are many excellent posts addressing the shortcomings of the IPCC SPM. Judith Curry has a large number that can be found under different headings, including the suggestion that the IPCC should be put down because it has become an obstacle in the development of climate science. Two very succinct posts are from physicists Nir Shaviv and Tom Quirk.
Presenting what he terms as the most boring graph he ever plotted, Nir Shaviv shows the changes in the projected likely range of climate sensitivity over time. That is our understanding of how sensitive temperatures are to a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2). There has been virtually no change in the scientific assessment of this critical calculation over three decades in spite of the expenditures of tens of billions of dollars. [Based on US government reports, SEPP calculates that since FY 1993, the US government spent over $150 Billion on climate change activities of which about $35 Billion is categorized as climate science.]
Shaviv dismisses the idea that failure to advance knowledge is due to general incompetence of the Climate Establishment. He states: “I think the real reason why there is no improvement in the understanding of climate sensitivity is the following. If you have a theory which is correct, then as progressively more data comes in, the agreement becomes better…However, if the basic premises of a theory are wrong, then there is no improved agreement as more data is collected. In fact, it is usually the opposite that takes place, the disagreement increases. In other words, the above behavior reflects the fact that the IPCC and alike are captives of a wrong conception.”
Tom Quirk goes directly to the IPCC’s reliance on computer models and the failure of these models to accurately project temperature trends for twenty years. Instead of directly addressing this failure, the IPCC uses ad hoc excuses why the models have failed. Quirk assess and rebuts some of these excuses. Quirk was the source of the Quote of the Week and uses a section from Gulliver’s Travels to describe the IPCC efforts. Links can be found under IPCC Report, Challenging the Orthodoxy, Questioning the Orthodoxy, and Seeking a Common Ground.
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Interacademy Council: For many, the big message of the IPCC SPM is that: “…the rise in global average temperatures over the past century is unequivocal, and it is ‘extremely likely’+ that more than half of the increase during the past 60 years stems from rising greenhouse-gas emissions.”
As discussed in September 21 TWTW, in reviewing the last IPCC report, The Interacademy Council specifically addressed the abuse in assigning quantitative probabilities (including confidence levels) by the IPCC. The Council stated that subjective probabilities should not be assigned to ill-defined outcomes, and quantitative probabilities (a likelihood scale) should be used to describe the probability of well-defined outcomes only when there is sufficient evidence.
The IPCC presents no physical evidence substantiating it is “extremely likely” that more than half of the increase during the past 60 years stems from rising greenhouse-gas emissions or a rigorous method of calculating the 95 to 100% probability that the term extremely likely embodies. Clearly, the IPCC does not have a high regard for the Interacademy Council. The quote is from the Christian Science Monitor linked under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Number of the Week: 30. According to reports, there are 30 nuclear power plants under construction in China. It would be very interesting to see a time frame from start to finish and the costs of completion for some of these plants as compared with similar plants under construction in developed countries, such as the US.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Climate of Uncertainty
A U.N. report can’t explain the hiatus in global warming.
Editorial, WSJ, Sep 30, 2013
2. The Political Science of Global Warming
The U.N.’s latest climate-change report should be its last.
By Rupert Darwall, WSJ, Sep 30, 2013
3. U.S. Is Poised to Overtake Russia as Largest Oil-and-Gas Producer
By Russell Gold and Daniel Gilbert, WSJ, Oct 2, 2013
[SEPP Comment: No thanks to Washington.]
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
The Neglected Sun
Book Review by Thomas Cussans, Bishop Hill, Sep 30, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/9/30/the-neglected-sun.html
IPCC: solar variations don’t matter
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 1, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/ipcc-solar-variations-dont-matter/
Climategate Continued
IPCC: Fixing the Facts
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Sep 30, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/30/ipcc-disappears-the-discrepancy/
The 2013 IPCC AR5 Report: Facts -vs- Fictions
By Don Easterbrook, WUWT, Oct 3, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/03/the-2013-ipcc-ar5-report-facts-vs-fictions/
Marotzke’s Broken Promise
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Sep 30, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/30/marotzkes-broken-promise/#more-18416
NIPCC Report
Summary for Policymakers
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science, Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Major International Climate Report Challenges UN Alarmism
By Alex Newman, New American, Oct 2, 2013 [H/t DeWitt Edwards]
IPCC Report
IPCC Final Draft (accepted): The Physical Science
By Working Group I, IPCC, Subject to Changes, Final Expected in January 2014 [H/t Bishop Hill]
http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/review-comments-disclaimer
Working Group II leaked
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 2, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/10/2/working-group-ii-leaked.html
[SEPP Comment: What may happen if the IPCC science is correct.]
The IPCC WGI Fifth Report
NZ Climate Truth Newsletter No. 317
By [5 Time] IPCC Expert Reviewer Vincent Gray, NCTCS, Oct 2, 2013
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/the-ipcc-wgi-fifth-report.html
Coverage of Extreme Events in the IPCC AR5
By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Oct 3, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/10/coverage-of-extreme-events-in-ipcc-ar5.html
Cause of the Pause
By Barry Brill, New Zealand Centre for Political Research, Sep 30, 2013
http://www.nzcpr.com/cause-of-the-pause/#more-9281
IPCC’s pause ‘logic’
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 30, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/30/ipccs-pause-logic/
AR5 gives no best estimate for climate sensitivity; breaks with a long tradition; good news is hidden from policy makers
By Marcel Crok, De staat van het klimaat, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t Anne and Lars Debeil]
AR5 and AGW becomes more certain.
By Anthony Cox, NCTCS, Sep 30, 2013
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/ar5-and-agw-becomes-more-certain.html
[SEPP Comment: Exposing the word games.]
Climate change: the uses of uncertainty
Science, not politics, should be the driver behind the world’s action to combat climate change
Editorial, Guardian, UK, Sep 26, 2013
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/26/climate-change-role-uncertainty
How the IPCC forgot to mention the pause
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 29, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/29/how-the-ipcc-forgot-to-mention-the-pause/
[SEPP Comment: All 14 groups assumed another group was addressing the pause?]
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The IPCC AR5 – First impressions
By Nir Shaviv, Science Bits, Oct 2, 2013
http://www.sciencebits.com/AR5-FirstImpressions
The Computer says NO – The IPCC 2013 Summary for Policymakers
By Tom Quirk, Henry Thornton, Oct 5, 2013
http://www.henrythornton.com/article.asp?article_id=6620
The Global Warming They Fear is NOT Based upon Physical First Principles
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 30, 2013
IPCC diagnosis – permanent paradigm paralysis
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 28, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/28/ipcc-diagnosis-permanent-paradigm-paralysis/
The diagnosis of paradigm paralysis seems fatal in the case of the IPCC, given the widespread nature of the infection and intrinsic motivated reasoning. We need to put down the IPCC as soon as possible – not to protect the patient who seems to be thriving in its own little cocoon, but for the sake of the rest of us whom it is trying to infect with its disease. Fortunately much of the population seems to be immune, but some governments seem highly susceptible to the disease. However, the precautionary principle demands that we not take any risks here, and hence the IPCC should be put down.
Kill the IPCC: After decades and billions spent, the climate body still fails to prove humans behind warming
By Judith Curry, Financial Post, CA, Oct 1, 2013
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/09/30/ipcc-climate-global-warming/
Oceanic Cloud Decrease since 1987 Explains 1/3 of Ocean Heating
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 3, 2013
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/10/oceanic-cloud-decrease-since-1987-explains-13-of-ocean-heating/
Low Information Reporters…and Even Lower Information Scientists
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 2, 2013
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/10/low-information-reporters-and-even-lower-information-scientists/
IPCC Climate: A Product of Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics Built On Inadequate Data
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Oct 2, 2013
Environment Canada’s Ignorance Guarantees Political Climate Science And Wrong Policy.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Oct 3, 2013
Defending the Orthodoxy
Energy secretary: United Nations climate report a ‘watershed’
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Sep 28, 2013
A Pause, Not an End, to Warming
By Richard Muller, NYT, Sep 25, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The temperatures do not tract well with solar changes if one ignores important solar changes.]
Has the U.N. Climate Panel Now Outlived Its Usefulness?
By Fred Pearce, Environment 360, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/has_the_un_climate_panel_now_outlived_its_usefulness/2696/
The irony may be that the IPCC has stood up to political pressure, and maintained its scientific purity, perhaps just a tad too well.
[SEPP Comment: What scientific purity?]
IPCC: fit for its purpose?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 4, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/04/ipcc-fit-for-its-purpose/#more-13239
[SEPP Comment: Depends on its purpose. It is certainly is not to identify all the possible causes of climate change. Addresses article by Pearce – see link immediately above.]
UN panel: ‘Extremely likely’ that human activity behind most global warming
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that the past decade has been the warmest on record and, with medium confidence, that the last three decades are the warmest in 1,400 years.
By Pete Spotts, Christian Science Monitor, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Humans almost certainly cause global warming, scientific panel says
By Darryl Fears, Washington Post, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t Conrad Potemra]
No more denial. Time to act on climate change
Our leaders must set the climate change gainsayers to one side and confront imminent catastrophe
Editorial, Guardian, UK, Sep 28, 2013
The IPCC report: A summary for everyone
By Ros Donald, The Carbon Brief, Sep 27, 2013
Questioning the Orthodoxy
IPCC’s High-impact, low-probability risk media talking points
’Abrupt Climate Change’ may turn out to be an IPCC own goal
By Barry Brill, WUWT, Oct 3, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/03/ipccs-high-impact-low-probability-risk-media-talking-points/
“’Skeptics don’t accept that fossil fuel usage gives rise to any realistic or actionable threat of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC)” is a statement that even the mainstream media might come to understand.”
IPCC in denial. “Just-so” excuses use ocean heat to hide their failure.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 30, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Exposing the contradictions in the IPCC claim that the oceans are causing the failure of CO2 to warm the world. If the world is cooling or not warming, the cause is natural. If the world is warming, the cause is human. But the actual ocean heat content, assuming it is accurately measured, supports the skeptics.]
IPCC scientists recommend having the Earth put down
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 28, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/28/ipcc-scientists-recommend-having-the-earth-put-down/
Met Office proof that global warming is still ‘on pause’ as climate summit confirms global temperature has stopped rising
By David Rose, Mail, UK, Sep 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Questions the Media Should Be Asking the IPCC – The Hiatus in Warming
By Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations, Oct 3, 2013
[SEPP Comment: A long post, backed-up by graphs.]
Detecting the AGW Needle in the SST Haystack
By Jeffery Patterson, WUWT, Sep 26, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/26/detecting-the-agw-needle-in-the-sst-haystack/
IPCC: Yes, humans are definitely behind all this global warming we aren’t having
Prof: ‘We’re confident because we’re confident’. Whoa, slow down, egghead
By Andrew Orlowski, The Register, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/09/27/ipcc_ar5_wg1_teaser/
IPCC’s High-impact, low-probability risk media talking points
’Abrupt Climate Change’ may turn out to be an IPCC own goal
By Barry Brill, WUWT, Oct 3, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/03/ipccs-high-impact-low-probability-risk-media-talking-points/
Climate change: this is not science – it’s mumbo jumbo
The IPCC’s call to phase out fossil fuels is economic nonsense and ‘morally outrageous’ for the developing world
By Nigel Lawson, Telegraph, UK, Sep 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Here, former chancellor Lord Lawson, now chairman of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a climate sceptic think tank, gives his verdict on the report.
Climate science in a Styrofoam cup
By Mal Wedd, Quadrant, Sep 30, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/09/climate-science-in-a-styrofoam-cup
[SEPP Comment: A brief explanation of the difficulty of modeling the major important greenhouse gas—water vapor.]
IPCC at crossroads with fifth climate change report
By William Kininmonth, The Age, AU, Sep 25, 2013
IPCC says abrupt irreversible clathrate methane, ice sheet collapse are unlikely.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 3, 2013
Why Climate Science is Fallible
By David Deming, WUWT, Oct 1, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/01/why-climate-science-is-fallible/
Global warming alarmism is no longer scientifically or politically sustainable
By Peter Lilley, City A.M. Sep 30, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
German Geologist: Despite Shrillness “No Hard Evidence Of CO2, No Cause For Alarm…Key Findings Not Properly Reported”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 30, 2013
IPCC 5th Assessment Is Very Confident That They’re Not Sure
By: Art Horn, Energy Tribune, Oct 1, 2013 [H/t Tom Harris]
‘Gambling’ climate change experts could be left red-faced as they bet on earth heating
A LEADING global warming expert believes the latest UN warning on man-made climate change is a “big gamble” as temperatures have not increased since 1997.
By Owen Bennett, Express, UK, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Major Swiss Daily Chief Editor: “Never Have I Read The Words ‘Probable’ Or ‘Improbable’ So Often” …”Dosed Prophecy”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 29, 2013
The reality is climate change is outlook better than expected
THE summary report by the IPCC is much more a political than a scientific statement.
By Benny Peiser, Express, UK, Sep 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
United Nations Climate Change Report Wrong As Usual
Editorial, IBD, Sep 27, 2013
Social Benefits of Carbon
Global warming can have a positive side, says Owen Paterson
Secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs, says global warming could allow food to be grown further north
By Rajeev Syal, Guardian, UK, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/30/owen-paterson-minister-climate-change-advantages
Global lukewarming need not be catastrophic
By Matt Ridley, His Blog, Oct 1, 20133
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/global-lukewarming-need-not-be-catastrophic.aspx
Seeking a Common Ground
Vahrenholt Sees Movement Towards More Realism, Openness In IPCC Report…”IPCC Models Are Wrong”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 28, 2013
Did the AR5 take the ‘dangerous’ out of AGW?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 3, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/03/did-the-ar5-take-the-dangerous-out-of-agw/
[SEPP Comment: AMOC Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. In the North Atlantic the surface water moves north (Gulf Stream) and the deep water moves south.]
2 from the Australian Financial Review
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 29, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/29/2-from-the-australian-financial-review/#more-13162
Negotiating the IPCC SPM
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 1, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/negotiating-the-ipcc-spm/
[SEPP Comment: The sausage factory.]
On The Intersection Of Scientist And Politicians—Guest Post by An Engineer
By “An Engineer” Blob of William Briggs, Oct 4, 2013
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=9316
[SEPP Comment: An amusing take on the intersection of the two on the IPCC level.]
Lowering Standards
A report from the Royal
By a reader of Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 2, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/10/2/a-report-from-the-royal.html
We need common sense on climate change
By J. Marshall Shepherd, CNN, Sep 26, 2013
http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/26/opinion/shepherd-climate-report/index.html?hpt=op_t1
[SEPP Comment: Hardly a sound scientific defense by the current president of the American Meteorological Society.]
Questioning European Green
Germany as the Canary
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Oct 4, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/10/04/germany-as-the-canary/
Rethinking climate change policy
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Oct 4, 2013
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/rethinking-climate-change-policy
The vast tomes of the Assessment Reports themselves simply provide backup for the case being presented in the summaries.
[SEPP Comment: The rest of the world is not following the EU lead of driving up the costs of electricity.]
Cheap energy or green energy – you cannot have both
By Matt Ridley, His Blog, (Times Column), Sep 30, 2013
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/cheap-energy-or-green-energy-you-cannot-have-both.aspx
Hypocrisy can be a beautiful thing when done well.
Poland pits itself against EU climate promises
By Barbara Lewis, Reuters, Oct 1, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/01/us-eu-climate-idUKBRE9900UU20131001
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Four Numbers Say Wind and Solar Can’t Save Climate
By Robert Bryce, Bloomberg, Sep 20, 2013 [H/t NCPA]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/four-numbers-say-wind-and-solar-can-t-save-climate.html
Climate policies lock chains on developing nations
By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Sep 30, 2013
Funding Issues
Stop Wasting Money on the IPCC
By Viv Forbes, Carbon Sense Coalition, Oct 2, 2013
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/stop-wasting-money-on-ipcc.html
The Global Environmental Facility: A Dismal Failure
By Brent Pinero, NCPA, Oct 3, 2013
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
We need climate-change risk assessment
By Michael Bloomberg, Hank Paulson and Tom Steyer, Washington Post: Oct 3, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Apparently these gentlemen, who desire a businesslike approach for US climate policy, are not aware that their assertions are based on what Roger Pielke, Jr, terms Zombie Science..]
What should scientists tell the public?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 30, 2013 [Video]
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/9/30/what-should-scientists-tell-the-public.html
[SEPP Comment: The theme is: Avoid exposing to the public the uncertainty of the science.]
Networks Embrace ‘Catastrophic’ Warnings of Latest IPCC Report
ABC swipes at skeptics, while CBS airs ‘irresponsible’ claim about temperatures rising 212 degrees.
By Julia Seymour, Business and Media Institute, Oct 2, 2013 [H/t Roy Spencer]
http://mrc.org/articles/networks-embrace-catastrophic-warnings-latest-ipcc-report
Climate Activists Need to Dial Back on the Panic
Instead of enacting phenomenally expensive policies, we need to come up with low-cost solutions to global warming that all nations can embrace
By Bjørn Lomborg, Time, Sep 30, 2013
http://ideas.time.com/2013/09/30/climate-activists-need-to-dial-back-on-the-panic/
Scientists to IPCC: YES, solar quiet spells like the one now looming CAN mean ICE AGES
Pesky boffins just refuse to toe the consensus line
By Lewis Page, The Register, Oct 1, 2013
Link to paper: Amplified Inception of European Little Ice Age by Sea Ice–Ocean–Atmosphere Feedbacks
By Flavio Lehner, Andreas Born, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker, Journal of Climate, Oct, 2013
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00690.1
[SEPP Comment: The comment by Lewis is far stronger than what can be found in the abstract of the paper. Thomas F. Stocker of Switzerland is a co-chair of the IPCC Working Group I, Physical Science.]
Colorado floods triggered by convergence of geography and climate, experts say
By John Roach, NBC News, Sep 17, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
[SEPP Comment: Roger Pielke Jr, pointed out that for over 100 years Boulder has been subject to extreme flooding.]
Hysteria
By Andrew Montfrom, Bishop Hill, Oct 1, 2013
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/10/1/hysteria.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate change: Fast out of the gate, slow to the finish the gate
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Oct 03, 2013
[SEPP Comment: What instantaneous step increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration?]
The poster boys of climate change thrive in the icy Arctic: Polar bears defy concerns about their extinction
Polar bear populations have stablised and may even be increasing
This is despite dire predictions of 70 per cent decline in numbers by 2050
One resident of Alaskan village says ‘this has been a great year for bears’
By Caroline Graham, Mail, UK, Sep 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Exposing false claims.]
Models v. Observations
Climate Data vs. Climate Models
Why do climate change assessments overlook the differences between the climate models they use and the empirical data?
By Patrick Michaels and Paul Knappenberger, Regulation, Fall 2013
http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/regulation/2013/9/regv36n3-6n.pdf
Dec 1978 to Nov 2012 Trend (ºC/Decade)
Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, December, 2012
http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2012/november/trend_Dec78_Nov12_alt.png
What about the polar bears? Disconnect between predictions and observations
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 28, 2013
Models Issues
Spinning the climate model – observation comparison: Part II
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 2, 2013 [H/t Anne and Lars Debeil]
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/02/spinning-the-climate-model-observation-comparison-part-ii/
Slingo writes to Lewis
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 29, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/9/29/slingo-writes-to-lewis.html
[SEPP Comment: An exchange of polite letters, but do the MET procedures and model contain a warming bias?
Measurement Issues
Budget Cutbacks and Buoys
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 1, 2013
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/10/budget-cutbacks-and-buoys.html
[SEPP Comment: Further example of NOAA’s misappropriation of funds in pursuit of global warming.]
Changing Weather
What happened to hurricane season? And why we should keep forecasting it…
By Brian McNoldy, Washington Post, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Changing Climate
‘Modern warming trend can’t be found’ in new climate study
Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm did show up, however
By Lewis Page, The Register, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Link to paper: Winter-to-spring temperature dynamics in Turkey derived from tree rings since AD 1125
By Heinrich, et al. Climate Dynamics, October, 2013
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1702-3
Wind and rain belts to shift north as planet warms
By Staff Writers New York NY (SPX),Sep 27, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Wind_and_rain_belts_to_shift_north_as_planet_warms_999.html
[SEPP Comment: The Sahara, now north of the tropical rain belt, was wet 8,000 years ago. The issue what caused this natural climate change?]
Traces of immense prehistoric ice sheets: the climate history of the Arctic Ocean needs to be rewritten
By Staff Writers, Bremerhaven, Germany (SPX), Oct 03, 2013
Climate change nothing new in Oz
By Staff Writers, Cairns, Australia (SPX,) Sep 26, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate_change_nothing_new_in_Oz_999.html
Changing Seas
The deep Greenland Sea is warming faster than the World Ocean
By Staff Writers, Bremerhaven, Germany (SPX), Oct 01, 2013
Link to paper: Increasing amount of Arctic Ocean deep waters in the Greenland Sea
By R. Somavilla, U. Schauer, G. Budéus, GRL, Aug 27, 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50775/abstract
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Doomed Arctic Nearly Back To 1995 Levels
By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Oct 2, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/10/02/doomed-arctic-nearly-back-to-1995-levels/
The First Alpine Glaciers are Growing Again
By Fabienne Riklin, Schweiz am Sonnntag, Trans Philipp Mueller, GWPF, Sep 30, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/alpine-glaciers-growing/
[SEPP Comment: Joyous news unless the glaciers start threatening villages again.]
Changing Earth
Source of Mysterious Medieval Eruption Identified
By Staff Writers, Science, Oct 1, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2013/10/source-mysterious-medieval-eruption-identified
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Anti-GMO movement exposed for the destructive force they are
By Staff Writer, ACSH, Sep 30, 2013
http://acsh.org/2013/09/anti-gmo-movement-exposed-for-the-destructive-force-they-are/
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Dying from Heat and Cold in China: Which is the Greater Killer?
Reference: Wu, W., Xiao, Y., Li, G., Zeng, W., Lin, H., Rutherford, S., Xu, Y., Luo, Y., Xu, X., Chu, C. and Ma, W. 2013. Temperature-mortality relationship in four subtropical Chinese cities: A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model. Science of the Total Environment 449: 355-362.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/oct/1oct2013a1.html
Although “both low and high temperatures were associated with increased mortality in the four subtropical Chinese cities,” according to Wu et al., they indicate that the “cold effect was more durable and pronounced than the hot effect.” And these observations clearly indicate that global warming leads to a net reduction in human mortality, which is just the opposite of what many climate alarmists and governmental agencies (like the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and United Nations IPCC) are promoting.
Stratocumulus Clouds of the Subtropical North and South Atlantic
Reference: Evan, A.T., Allen, R.J., Bennartz, R. and Vimont, D.J. 2013. The modification of sea surface temperature anomaly linear damping time scales by stratocumulus clouds. Journal of Climate 26: 3619-3630.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/oct/1oct2013a2.html
Diurnal Temperature Range and Respiratory Tract Infections
Reference: Ge, W.Z., Xu, F., Zhao, Z.H., Zhao, J.Z. and Kan, H.D. 2013. Association between diurnal temperature range and respiratory tract infections. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 26: 222-225.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/oct/2oct2013a1.html
The Warming of Max and Min Global Terrestrial Temperatures
Reference: Donat, et al. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres) 118: 2098-2118.
Litigation Issues
Supreme Court: Justices to consider review of EPA greenhouse gas rules
Jeremy P. Jacobs, E&E reporter, Sep 27, 2013
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059987993
[SEPP Comment: A decision may be announced as soon as Monday, or later.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Analysis shows wind tax credit would cost billions
By Julian Hattem, The Hill, Oct 2, 2013
Green energy confusion ‘stalling UK investment’
A group of powerful investors has written to George Osborne warning that a lack of clarity on green energy policy is stalling investment in UK companies.
By Louise Armitstead, Telegraph, UK, Sep 29, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: There is nothing preventing these companies and the Methodist Church from investing in green energy. The issue is their demands for subsidies and mandates.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Mandates That New Coal Plants Prevent Nonexistent Climate Problem With Unavailable Solution
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Oct 1, 2013
The EPA as Energy Master
The agency sees itself as central planner of the new clean-energy economy.
By Kathleen Hartnett White, National Review, Oct 2, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/360130/epa-energy-master-kathleen-hartnett-white
An Energy Star Window Into EPA Ineptitude
Editorial, IBD, Sep 27, 2013
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/092713-673000-energy-star-rule-shows-epa-ineptitude.htm
EPA, IPCC Push Ahead Even as Global Warming Theories Crumble
By Paul Chesser, NL&PC, Oct 1, 2013
EPA officials cleared of email abuse charges
By Stephen Dinan, Washington Times, Sep 30, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/30/epa-officials-cleared-email-abuse-charges/
Link to the report: Congressionally Requested Inquiry Into the EPA’s Use of Private and Alias Email Accounts
By Office of Inspector General, EPA, Sep 26, 2013
http://www.epa.gov/oig/reports/2013/20130926-13-P-0433_glance.pdf
Obama Clings To Climate Change Science That Now Looks Very Wrong
By H. Sterling Burnett, IBD, Sep 26, 2013
Energy Issues – Non-US
Saudi Arabia’s Changing Oil Equation
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Oct 1, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/saudi-arabias-changing-oil-equation/
Energy Issues — US
As US Oil Production Revives, New Vulnerabilities Appear
By: Geoffrey Styles, Energy Tribune, Oct 4, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Opening drilling in Alaska, which the administration refuses to do, would eliminate the major threat.]
Arctic drilling needs federal standards
By Staff Writers, Washington (UPI), Sep 27, 2013
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Arctic_drilling_needs_federal_standards_999.html
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Day 9: Obama repeatedly defied federal court with Gulf oil policies
By Conn Carroll, Washington Examiner, Sep 26, 2013
Obama Draws Line In The Sand Against Coal Industry
By Richard Faulk, IBD, Sep 30, 2013
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Study Sheds Light on Truth Of Methane and Drilling
By: Michael Economides, Energy Tribune, Oct 3, 2013
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Construction begins on Tianwan 4
The pouring of first concrete today for another Russian-supplied reactor at the Tianwan site in China’s Jiangsu province brings the total number of power reactors currently under construction in the country to 30.
By Staff Writers, WNN, Sep 27, 2013
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Construction_begins_on_Tianwan_4-2709134.html
Japan seeks outside help for contaminated water
By Staff Writers, WNN, Sep 26, 2013
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS-Japan_seeks_outside_help_for_contaminated_water-2609134.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Biofuel Blunder: Navy Should Prioritize Fleet Modernization over Political Initiatives
By Brian Slattery and Michaela Dodge, Heritage, Sep 24, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/09/navy-s-green-fleet-a-biofuel-blunder
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Assault and GM’s $30,000 Battery
By Eric Peters, American Spectator, Oct 1, 2013
http://spectator.org/archives/2013/10/01/assault-and-30000-battery
Carbon Schemes
The EPA’s Carbon-Capture Delusion
Carbon capture and sequestration reduces the output of power plants.
By Robert Bryce, National Review, Sep 23, 2013 [H/t NCPA]
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/359133/epas-carbon-capture-delusion-robert-bryce
Methane Out, Carbon Dioxide In
By Staff Writers, Charlottesville VA (SPX), Oct 01, 2013
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Methane_Out_Carbon_Dioxide_In_999.html
California Dreaming
CA rooftop solar will cost other customers $1 billion per year
By Wayne Lusvardi, Cal Watchdog, Oct 1, 2013
http://calwatchdog.com/2013/10/01/ca-rooftop-solar-will-cost-other-customers-1-billion-per-year/
[SEPP Comment: California wealth transfer scheme, from the poor and middle class to the wealthy.]
CPUC blacks out new green power prices from consumers
By Wayne Lusvardi, Cal Watchdog, Sep 30, 2013 [H/t Master Resource,
http://calwatchdog.com/2013/09/30/cpuc-blacks-out-new-green-power-prices-from-consumers/
[SEPP Comment: Regulators who supposedly protect the consumers allow utilities to hide the true costs of wind and solar.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
The Florida Keys <3 Dengue!
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Oct 1, 2013
http://acsh.org/2013/10/the-florida-keys/
Environmental Industry
Russia Busts Greenpeace
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Oct 2, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/10/russia-busts-greenpeace.html
[SEPP Comment: For too long Greenpeace has had a free ride.]
Greenpeace’s Militant Pacifism…Protests Often Turn Violent, Pose A Danger…But Russia Stands Her Ground
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 4, 2013
Verbatim “Climate” Journalism
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Oct 3, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/10/verbatim-climate-journalism.html
[SEPP Comment: The earth changing to a cooling cycle is up for debate.]
Other Scientific News
Science’s Sokal moment
It seems dangerously easy to get scientific nonsense published
Editorial, The Economist, Oct 5, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Taxpayer-Funded Journal Walks Back BPA Cancer Claim After Statistical Meltdown
By Trevor Butterworth, Forbes, Sep 26, 2013 [H/t ACSH]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Cassini finds ingredient of household plastic on Saturn moon
By Staff Writers, Pasadena, Calif. (UPI), Sep 30, 2013
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Earth Warming too Fast for Turtles to Escape
By Staff Writer, Eco Enquirer, Sep 29, 2013 [H/t Roy Spencer]
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/global-warming-turtles.htm
Al Gore: US media ‘intimidated, frightened’ on climate change
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Sep 27, 2013
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David Rose and Michel Jarraud are equally off base in implying that the climate models make “predictions.” They make “projections.”
Re: number of the week, China’s nuclear power stations.
Cost is 2 to 3 times lower in China than US or Europe, and construction time is 52 months.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/09/nuclear-reactor-costs-in-china.html
From Meteo.gr :
The second lowest temperature ever recorded the first ten days of October in Athens, Greece ,was recorded Friday 4/10 with the highest temperature 16C.
The lowest ever recorded high for this time period was in 1898 when it was found at 13.1C
Usually we have to dress with “winter clothes” at the end of October beginning of November. Already winter clothes our out.
“Obama Clings To Climate Change Science That Now Looks Very Wrong”
He should spend his efforts on something more useful, like settling the VHS/Betamax controversy.
Surely you mean “The term Zombie Science may be less than compl*i*mentary…” rather than “compl*e*mentary”?
Anthony,
You asked for details about the Chinese program for nuclear power, including costs and construction times.
They are predominantly developing the AP1000 design. Here are some figures –
…………………………………
“AP1000, CAP1000
The Westinghouse AP1000 is the main basis of China’s move to Generation III technology, and involves a major technology transfer agreement. It is a 1250 MWe gross reactor with two coolant loops. The first four AP1000 reactors are being built at Sanmen and Haiyang, for CNNC and China Power Investment Corp (CPI) respectively. Six more at three sites are firmly planned after them, at Sanmen, Haiyang and Lufeng (for CGN), and at least 30 more are proposed to follow. A State Council Research Office report in January 2011 emphasised that these should have priority over alternative designs such as CPR-1000, and this position strengthened following the Fukushima accident.
The reactors are built from modules fabricated adjacent to each site. The timeline is 50 months from first concrete to fuel loading, then six months to grid connection for the first four units, with this expected to reduce significantly for the following units. In October 2009, SNPTC and CNNC signed an agreement to co-develop and refine the AP1000 design, and this position strengthened following the Fukushima accident. (See also section below on Embarking upon Generation III plants).
CNEA estimated in May 2013 that the construction cost for two AP1000 units at Sanmen are CNY 40.1 billion ($6.54 billion), or 16,000 Yuan/kW installed ($2615/kW), instead of CNY 32.4 billion earlier estimated. This is about 20% higher than that of improved Generation II Chinese reactors, and 14% higher than latest estimate for CPR-1000, but likely to drop to about CNY 13,000/kW ($2120/kW) with series construction and localisation as envisaged. Grid purchase price is expected to exceed CNY 0.45/kWh at present costs, and drop to 0.42/kWh with reduced capital cost.
………….
Source (with much more relevant data) World Nuclear Association –
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-A-F/China–Nuclear-Power/#.UlJkfb64aUk
…………………
Cheers Geoff.
TERRY OLDBERG denies “…that the climate models make ‘predictions.’ They make ‘projections.'”
Either way, they’ve failed.
(And do tell, Terry – failed predictions or failed projections – what’s the difference?)
Is that like the idiotically redundant “last and final” boarding call you hear 20 times for one flight at the airport?